Are this year's redraft RBs a disaster waiting to happen? (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I've got my first redraft of the year coming up soon. Looking at the RB rankings, I can't help but feel like this is a great year to wait on RBs.

Here are Yahoo's top 15 backs:

1. Arian Foster

2. Ray Rice

3. LeSean McCoy

4. Darren McFadden

5. Chris Johnson

6. Matt Forte

7. Marshawn Lynch

8. Jamaal Charles

9. Ryan Mathews

10. Trent Richardson

11. DeMarco Murray

12. Adrian Peterson

13. Steven Jackson

14. Fred Jackson

15. Ahmad Bradshaw

Honestly, I can't remember a worse year for redraft RBs ever.

Maybe I'm just too picky and maybe my dynasty outlook is blurring my redraft vision, but to me this looks like one gigantic minefield. I don't even know where to start.

1. Arian Foster - Seems a bit overrated to me. Good in the passing game, but YPC dropped and Ben Tate performed really well last year.

2. Ray Rice - No complaints here. He would be my #1 pick because he seems like such a safe option.

3. LeSean McCoy - McCoy would be my #2 pick. If he stays healthy, there's no reason why his production should suffer much.

4. Darren McFadden - Are you kidding me? He has never stayed healthy in his career. PPG monster, but brittle as glass. One good year in 4 NFL seasons. I'd like to bat more than .250 with my top 10 picks.

5. Chris Johnson - Jekkyl and Hyde. There's no doubting his talent, but he has slipped from his peak of a couple years ago. I don't hate him here, but I wouldn't feel very good about it either.

6. Matt Forte - A lot of mileage on his body, but should be good for another year at least. No complaints here.

7. Marshawn Lynch - Knucklehead coming off career highs in rushing and TDs. I would like him a lot more as a RB2, as he's a fairly mediocre player.

8. Jamaal Charles - Massively overrated like McFadden. He's an electric runner, but not a workhorse back. Add Hillis and an ACL injury into the mix, and I'm really struggling to get excited.

9. Ryan Mathews - He could be money down the stretch, but he's brittle and already injured.

10. Trent Richardson - Similar to Mathews, although I think he's a better talent. There is risk here, but I think there's also significant upside.

11. DeMarco Murray - Faded a little bit after his torrid start last year and then got injured again. Like McFadden, he has great talent and terrible durability.

12. Adrian Peterson - Less than 12 months removed from a catastrophic knee injury. Lots of mileage on his body.

13. Steven Jackson - Reliable, but another guy who could seemingly break down at any moment. 2100+ career carries is insane. He's on borrowed time.

14. Fred Jackson - Is he even the most talented RB on his team?

15. Ahmad Bradshaw - "Is he even the most talented RB on his team?" He's also got some durability issues to boot.

Rice and McCoy are the only guys I'd feel good about taking in the top 10 of a draft. Forte is solid. Johnson should do okay by default since he will get a lot of touches. Richardson could be great and Mathews has the potential to be key down the stretch. But overall, this group makes me feel kinda .

The good news is that there are some interesting candidates falling late:

16. Doug Martin

18. Reggie Bush

22. Jonathan Stewart

25. Shonn Greene

27. Stevan Ridley

31. CJ Spiller

39. David Wilson

44. Cedric Benson

49. Jonathan Dwyer

Martin and Bush don't seem significantly less valuable than Lynch and Charles to me. I know some will disagree, but considering that they're ranked about 10 spots lower each, I think they certainly represent better value. Greene and Benson are not glamorous picks, but they're the best backs on their teams and there's little reason why they can't rush for 1100+ yards this year. Stewart, Spiller, Wilson, and Dwyer come with more risk, but have difference-maker upside if things click for them.

If I can't get McCoy or Rice early, I think I'll be looking at QB/WR and then filling out my roster with some of these unheralded options in the middle rounds. I really don't see much value at the top this year, with so many of the backs having major red flags.

 

[Late225]

I agree 100%. No idea who to take at the end of the first when the top 3 and Calvin are all gone. Rankings are telling me CJ2K, DMAC, or MJD, but I'm not comfortable with their of these guys as my first pick.

 

[EBF]

I agree 100%. No idea who to take at the end of the first when the top 3 and Calvin are all gone. Rankings are telling me CJ2K, DMAC, or MJD, but I'm not comfortable with their of these guys as my first pick.

Me neither. I'll be looking at Rodgers, Calvin, Fitzgerald. Maybe even someone like Brandon Marshall. MJD isn't on my list, which means I probably overlooked him on Yahoo's rankings.I don't feel any better about him though. Great talent. Great careers. Tons of mileage though.

 

[12punch]

Martin and Bush don't seem significantly less valuable than Lynch and Charles to me. I know some will disagree, but considering that they're ranked about 10 spots lower each, I think they certainly represent better value. Greene and Benson are not glamorous picks, but they're the best backs on their teams and there's little reason why they can't rush for 1100+ yards this year. Stewart, Spiller, Wilson, and Dwyer come with more risk, but have difference-maker upside if things click for them.

there might be a tiny reason, though

 

[dcgator]

I am coming to the same conclusion. Especially in PPR leagues, I think I may go WR-WR, reach for Ryan and fill the rest of the team with RBs.

 

[boilerdave]

The good news is that there are some interesting candidates falling late:16. Doug Martin18. Reggie Bush22. Jonathan Stewart25. Shonn Greene27. Stevan Ridley31. CJ Spiller39. David Wilson44. Cedric Benson49. Jonathan Dwyer

I don't know where Green-Ellis ranks at Yahoo but I like him better than several of the guys on that list.And I agree...I'm pretty sure I'll try to grab a 2 to 3 of the stud WR's early and wait until later in the draft for RB's.

 

[ponchsox]

I've got my first redraft of the year coming up soon. Looking at the RB rankings, I can't help but feel like this is a great year to wait on RBs.

Here are Yahoo's top 15 backs:

1. Arian Foster

2. Ray Rice

3. LeSean McCoy

4. Darren McFadden

5. Chris Johnson

6. Matt Forte

7. Marshawn Lynch

8. Jamaal Charles

9. Ryan Mathews

10. Trent Richardson

11. DeMarco Murray

12. Adrian Peterson

13. Steven Jackson

14. Fred Jackson

15. Ahmad Bradshaw

Honestly, I can't remember a worse year for redraft RBs ever.

Maybe I'm just too picky and maybe my dynasty outlook is blurring my redraft vision, but to me this looks like one gigantic minefield. I don't even know where to start.

1. Arian Foster - Seems a bit overrated to me. Good in the passing game, but YPC dropped and Ben Tate performed really well last year.

2. Ray Rice - No complaints here. He would be my #1 pick because he seems like such a safe option.

3. LeSean McCoy - McCoy would be my #2 pick. If he stays healthy, there's no reason why his production should suffer much.

4. Darren McFadden - Are you kidding me? He has never stayed healthy in his career. PPG monster, but brittle as glass. One good year in 4 NFL seasons. I'd like to bat more than .250 with my top 10 picks.

5. Chris Johnson - Jekkyl and Hyde. There's no doubting his talent, but he has slipped from his peak of a couple years ago. I don't hate him here, but I wouldn't feel very good about it either.

6. Matt Forte - A lot of mileage on his body, but should be good for another year at least. No complaints here.

7. Marshawn Lynch - Knucklehead coming off career highs in rushing and TDs. I would like him a lot more as a RB2, as he's a fairly mediocre player.

8. Jamaal Charles - Massively overrated like McFadden. He's an electric runner, but not a workhorse back. Add Hillis and an ACL injury into the mix, and I'm really struggling to get excited.

9. Ryan Mathews - He could be money down the stretch, but he's brittle and already injured.

10. Trent Richardson - Similar to Mathews, although I think he's a better talent. There is risk here, but I think there's also significant upside.

11. DeMarco Murray - Faded a little bit after his torrid start last year and then got injured again. Like McFadden, he has great talent and terrible durability.

12. Adrian Peterson - Less than 12 months removed from a catastrophic knee injury. Lots of mileage on his body.

13. Steven Jackson - Reliable, but another guy who could seemingly break down at any moment. 2100+ career carries is insane. He's on borrowed time.

14. Fred Jackson - Is he even the most talented RB on his team?

15. Ahmad Bradshaw - "Is he even the most talented RB on his team?" He's also got some durability issues to boot.

Rice and McCoy are the only guys I'd feel good about taking in the top 10 of a draft. Forte is solid. Johnson should do okay by default since he will get a lot of touches. Richardson could be great and Mathews has the potential to be key down the stretch. But overall, this group makes me feel kinda .

The good news is that there are some interesting candidates falling late:

16. Doug Martin

18. Reggie Bush

22. Jonathan Stewart

25. Shonn Greene

27. Stevan Ridley

31. CJ Spiller

39. David Wilson

44. Cedric Benson

49. Jonathan Dwyer

Martin and Bush don't seem significantly less valuable than Lynch and Charles to me. I know some will disagree, but considering that they're ranked about 10 spots lower each, I think they certainly represent better value. Greene and Benson are not glamorous picks, but they're the best backs on their teams and there's little reason why they can't rush for 1100+ yards this year. Stewart, Spiller, Wilson, and Dwyer come with more risk, but have difference-maker upside if things click for them.

If I can't get McCoy or Rice early, I think I'll be looking at QB/WR and then filling out my roster with some of these unheralded options in the middle rounds. I really don't see much value at the top this year, with so many of the backs having major red flags.

Good luck with that cess pool of RB. A couple guys might pan out but if you are starting off with Reggie Bush as your #1 RB you are going to get smoked most weeks, I don't care how good your QB or WR are.

 

[Late225]

EBF - why aren't you using the FBGuys rankings? Why Subscribe.

 

[Clutch is Eli]

If you have a top 3 pick, RB is where it's at. I don't know how you don't like Foster, but to each his own. I think Foster will beast it this year, he's got excellent insurance in Tate as well (a necessary handcuff for first overall pick)

After the top 3 it really is a crapshoot. I'de hate to say draft a QB, but Rodgers, Brady and Brees are all significantly safer than the RBs after the top 3...

Any advice for an auction redraft league? I'm in the same predicament. Don't know if I should just blow my load on a top 3 to be safe, then relax for a little or go value value value and hope to hit on one of the "crapshoot" backs that fall in value.

 

[pizzatyme]

EBF, I agree. In a FPC-style draft this week I had the 4th pick and went Calvin, Fitz, Charles, Bowe, Bush, Greene in that order. I also nabbed Hillis.

I feel like Charles is okay since you can get his cuff who could also play flex, so you get the points either way.

Bush/Greene in the 5/6 is terrific value to me and the reason I passed on DMC or CJ2K @1.04.

 

[gump]

I agree about grabbing a stud QB instead of the 2nd tier RB....but not WR other than Calvin.

My rankings have everyone else lumped together....I can get almost the same WR in the 4th that I can in the 2nd.

For that reason I'm going to load up on several high ranked risky RB and hope a few pan out....then hit WR later.

 

[EBF]

EBF, I agree. In a FPC-style draft this week I had the 4th pick and went Calvin, Fitz, Charles, Bowe, Bush, Greene in that order. I also nabbed Hillis.I feel like Charles is okay since you can get his cuff who could also play flex, so you get the points either way.Bush/Greene in the 5/6 is terrific value to me and the reason I passed on DMC or CJ2K @1.04.

I think I'll be trying to do something similar. I don't know which pick I'll have yet, but I'm definitely not burning a first round pick on a McFadden/Lynch/Mathews. A Bush/Benson or Bush/Greene duo with someone like Spiller added in for upside could be a pretty good way to go. I also think the two big rookies this year Martin and Richardson each have massive potential in ppr if they can stay healthy for all 16 games.

 

[jurb26]

This list is pretty meaningless with out giving the ADPs.

 

[BaBastage]

I'm in agreement with EBF here and your line by line analysis more or less mirrors my own thoughts.

Unless I could get Rice or McCoy early, I'd be loading QB and WR first and get my RB's at the end of round 2 or in 3.

 

[ponchsox]

In the first round, I may agree with you. Brees has nearly a 50 point advantage over QBs like Eli Manning. According to FBG projections, McFadden only has a ~40 point advantage over Bush.

The only problem with your strategy is what if the RBs you are targeting are gone before you pick? Do you settle for the Kevin Smiths and Mark Ingrams who are total crap shoots?

 

[MAC_32]

In a draft 2 weeks ago I took Mathews at 11 (literally minutes before his injury), came back with Forte, then paired up LeShoure and Ryan Williams in the 8th and 9th. I've placed Mathews on IR and picked up R Jennings in waivers. Limited to 4 RB's so you can usually find injury replacements in season.

Auction this past weekend was easier to navigate as I was able to keep AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Sproles for cheap. I could afford to pay whatever it took to get Ray Rice then come back with selective bargains. In this case it was Martin as my primary backup with $1 fliers thrown at Quizz, Hillman, and R Jennings. Tried to get Ryan Williams or Leshoure but owners with more $ than me waited and targeted them with their last bid. At least I drove up their keeper prices for next year? Both went for $15 as I had $14 left.

Anyway, leagues are going to be won and lost with RB's this year, there's so much uncertainty. I think it's causing many to take the perceived safer picks early and rely on throwing darts at RB in the middle and later rounds. While there is so much risk tied in RB's this year there's a lot more outside the top 10 than there is at the top. You may lose your league if your early round RB flops but it's going to be very difficult to get an advantage at the position if you don't take a guy early. I'd rather shoot for 1st and risk finishing in the bottom of the pack than shoot for 3rd and hope to get lucky so that's why I'm still building my teams around RB and fill the gaps around them how I can. I got killed by injuries last year and still managed the playoffs in every league but one because of in-season roster management and the one I missed wasn't because of management (2nd in points) just poor luck, I think that's a forgotten component this time of year. There aren't many, but there are waiver wonders that pop up early on, be the first one to them and you can offset an injury. Exploiting matchups during the bye weeks too.

 

[Koya]

Picking at #10 in a 12 team PPR, I faced this same issue. Demarco Murray as my first rounder? Really? That was going to be - and was - my option.

So, went QB-TE, with Cam Newton and Graham. Cam was a bit high per his ADP, but the other three QBs had gone, I happen to like Newton a lot (almost on par with Brees) and it's a QB friendly scoring system. Plus, I have two guys that "should" perform, rather than the RBs who each have issues.

In the third a lot of the decent RBs started to go, and I ended up with A Peterson. For a late 3rd rounder, have to like the upside but its still a chance. Then again, Trent Richardson is a chance. So was every other back on the board at that time. Backed up A Pete with Gerhard and was lucky (imo) to get Willis McGee in the late 5th, so he should get decent carries.

Let's face it, this is a new world with the passing offenses taking over and this years list of wounded RBs at every turn... but it seems a lot more fun then when you got Faulk (and maybe Edge) or were facing a huge uphill battle because James Stewart simply wasnt going to get it done for you a few picks later.

 

[EBF]

The only problem with your strategy is what if the RBs you are targeting are gone before you pick? Do you settle for the Kevin Smiths and Mark Ingrams who are total crap shoots?

If your whole draft hinges on getting 1-2 specific players then you could be up a creek if you don't get them. That's not what I'm advocating though. I'm just saying I'd rather avoid that RB crapshoot in the first couple rounds and then come back and scoop up the leftovers later. I don't view guys like Bush and Martin as being a lot less valuable than RBs who will go 15-20 picks earlier. And there are some guys like Benson, Greene, and Spiller who offer interesting value significantly later.

 

[cracKer]

Imagine if the top backs actually performed as projected this year (of course it won't happen, but that's just the natural order of things in ANY year). There will be some sad folks who thought they could load up on crap runners late in the draft and hang with the pack.

You've laid out the concerns about these players pretty well, just don't overlook what made each of these guys ranked where they are in the first place.

 

[DexterDew]

i hear you EBF... i'm in the later stages of my first redraft and picking from the 1.05, did not love any of the RBs at any time before my 6.08. It's PPR, so I like RBs that will catch 40+ passes to give some production. And there are some injury concerns that are available to round out the back end.

From your list of potential targets i like Stewart, Ridley and Spiller... and I would add D Brown, P Thomas and Verene

You may have to reach a little to get your target, but that is way better than just missing out.

 

[EBF]

Imagine if the top backs actually performed as projected this year (of course it won't happen, but that's just the natural order of things in ANY year). There will be some sad folks who thought they could load up on crap runners late in the draft and hang with the pack. You've laid out the concerns about these players pretty well, just don't overlook what made each of these guys ranked where they are in the first place.

I hear what you're saying, but I think this is a year where you're going to see a lot of guys currently ranked outside the top 10 RBs end up finishing high. Of course, that's always the case. And it can be difficult to predict who those surprises are going to be.The difference for me between this year and years past is that a unusually high amount of the alleged top RBs are either:1. Getting really old.2. Stuck in some kind of committee situation.3. Extremely brittle / dealing with injury issues.MJD, SJax, Turner, and Gore have had phenomenal careers, but how much is left in the tank? McFadden, Charles, Mathews, and Murray have shown a lot of potential, but how likely are they to stay healthy for close to 16 games?There are a lot of time bombs in the RB ranks this year.

 

[finfansteve]

I agree. Picking at 1.11 in my big money.5PPR league this year I am contemplating graham at 1.11 and Julio Jones or maybe even Gronkowski (sounds crazy I know though I actually prefer Hernandez this year)at the turn unless one of the big 3 qbs drops to me at 1.11. I just cant see hitching my wagon to the likes of Murray or MJD or someone like that they seem like disasters waiting to happen. Points are points no matter which positions you get them from. I would just load up on potential at 3-4 or hope for ADP or Matthews to be available there and hope for the best I guess

 

[sjdogs]

Yes they are. Welcome to 2012

 

[finfansteve]

seems like this is a year to win with qbs and TE's difference makers and hope for the best from your RBs if you miss out on the top 3 RBS...

 

[Warrior]

That second group of RBs you listed makes me want to throw up...RBBC and plodders, other than Martin.

 

[Shutout]

Give me David Wilson at #39 FTW. With my early picks, i can ride out that early season until he gets going and contend for a title I think with him down the stretch.

 

[corpcow]

I don't think it's a "disaster waiting to happen", but I do think it highlights how shallow the talent at RB really is. I'd rather take my chances loading up with RBs early and relying on QB, WR and TE depth later.

Hillis is a must-have for me late. I've made sure to add him in any redrafts I'm doing this year... usually in the 6th or 7th depending on the league.

 

[LOCO]

I plan on upside down draft. Going qb early/wr/wr/tE/ than all rbs for the next four rounds. Just to many rb questions.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I've got my first redraft of the year coming up soon. Looking at the RB rankings, I can't help but feel like this is a great year to wait on RBs.

Here are Yahoo's top 15 backs:

1. Arian Foster

2. Ray Rice

3. LeSean McCoy

4. Darren McFadden

5. Chris Johnson

6. Matt Forte

7. Marshawn Lynch

8. Jamaal Charles

9. Ryan Mathews

10. Trent Richardson

11. DeMarco Murray

12. Adrian Peterson

13. Steven Jackson

14. Fred Jackson

15. Ahmad Bradshaw

Honestly, I can't remember a worse year for redraft RBs ever.

Maybe I'm just too picky and maybe my dynasty outlook is blurring my redraft vision, but to me this looks like one gigantic minefield. I don't even know where to start.

1. Arian Foster - Seems a bit overrated to me. Good in the passing game, but YPC dropped and Ben Tate performed really well last year.

2. Ray Rice - No complaints here. He would be my #1 pick because he seems like such a safe option.

3. LeSean McCoy - McCoy would be my #2 pick. If he stays healthy, there's no reason why his production should suffer much.

4. Darren McFadden - Are you kidding me? He has never stayed healthy in his career. PPG monster, but brittle as glass. One good year in 4 NFL seasons. I'd like to bat more than .250 with my top 10 picks.

5. Chris Johnson - Jekkyl and Hyde. There's no doubting his talent, but he has slipped from his peak of a couple years ago. I don't hate him here, but I wouldn't feel very good about it either.

6. Matt Forte - A lot of mileage on his body, but should be good for another year at least. No complaints here.

7. Marshawn Lynch - Knucklehead coming off career highs in rushing and TDs. I would like him a lot more as a RB2, as he's a fairly mediocre player.

8. Jamaal Charles - Massively overrated like McFadden. He's an electric runner, but not a workhorse back. Add Hillis and an ACL injury into the mix, and I'm really struggling to get excited.

9. Ryan Mathews - He could be money down the stretch, but he's brittle and already injured.

10. Trent Richardson - Similar to Mathews, although I think he's a better talent. There is risk here, but I think there's also significant upside.

11. DeMarco Murray - Faded a little bit after his torrid start last year and then got injured again. Like McFadden, he has great talent and terrible durability.

12. Adrian Peterson - Less than 12 months removed from a catastrophic knee injury. Lots of mileage on his body.

13. Steven Jackson - Reliable, but another guy who could seemingly break down at any moment. 2100+ career carries is insane. He's on borrowed time.

14. Fred Jackson - Is he even the most talented RB on his team?

15. Ahmad Bradshaw - "Is he even the most talented RB on his team?" He's also got some durability issues to boot.

Rice and McCoy are the only guys I'd feel good about taking in the top 10 of a draft. Forte is solid. Johnson should do okay by default since he will get a lot of touches. Richardson could be great and Mathews has the potential to be key down the stretch. But overall, this group makes me feel kinda .

The good news is that there are some interesting candidates falling late:

16. Doug Martin

18. Reggie Bush

22. Jonathan Stewart

25. Shonn Greene

27. Stevan Ridley

31. CJ Spiller

39. David Wilson

44. Cedric Benson

49. Jonathan Dwyer

Martin and Bush don't seem significantly less valuable than Lynch and Charles to me. I know some will disagree, but considering that they're ranked about 10 spots lower each, I think they certainly represent better value. Greene and Benson are not glamorous picks, but they're the best backs on their teams and there's little reason why they can't rush for 1100+ yards this year. Stewart, Spiller, Wilson, and Dwyer come with more risk, but have difference-maker upside if things click for them.

If I can't get McCoy or Rice early, I think I'll be looking at QB/WR and then filling out my roster with some of these unheralded options in the middle rounds. I really don't see much value at the top this year, with so many of the backs having major red flags.

Good luck with that cess pool of RB. A couple guys might pan out but if you are starting off with Reggie Bush as your #1 RB you are going to get smoked most weeks, I don't care how good your QB or WR are.

Couple of us won leagues w bush as a rb1 last yr...

 

[Tanner9919]

I've got my first redraft of the year coming up soon. Looking at the RB rankings, I can't help but feel like this is a great year to wait on RBs.

Here are Yahoo's top 15 backs:

1. Arian Foster

2. Ray Rice

3. LeSean McCoy

4. Darren McFadden

5. Chris Johnson

6. Matt Forte

7. Marshawn Lynch

8. Jamaal Charles

9. Ryan Mathews

10. Trent Richardson

11. DeMarco Murray

12. Adrian Peterson

13. Steven Jackson

14. Fred Jackson

15. Ahmad Bradshaw

Honestly, I can't remember a worse year for redraft RBs ever.

The good news is that there are some interesting candidates falling late:

16. Doug Martin

18. Reggie Bush

22. Jonathan Stewart

25. Shonn Greene

27. Stevan Ridley

31. CJ Spiller

39. David Wilson

44. Cedric Benson

49. Jonathan Dwyer

Martin and Bush don't seem significantly less valuable than Lynch and Charles to me. I know some will disagree, but considering that they're ranked about 10 spots lower each, I think they certainly represent better value. Greene and Benson are not glamorous picks, but they're the best backs on their teams and there's little reason why they can't rush for 1100+ yards this year. Stewart, Spiller, Wilson, and Dwyer come with more risk, but have difference-maker upside if things click for them.

If I can't get McCoy or Rice early, I think I'll be looking at QB/WR and then filling out my roster with some of these unheralded options in the middle rounds. I really don't see much value at the top this year, with so many of the backs having major red flags.

great list! you seem to be forgetting a certain R. Jennings, Jax..given the inability of holdout players to produce when the finally do return to the team, Jennings figures to see a lot of action in 2012..Guys like Martin and Wilson should contribute immediately, both have Rb's with question marks ahead of them - Bradshaw's foot and inability to stay healthy, Blount's one-dimensional style ( poor receiver).

Willis McGahee strikes me as a great mid-round RB selection.he should be one of the top 15 RB's this season..

Benson has decent value in GB

Ryan Williams

dare I say it, Ronnie Brown in SD? Mathews is fragile fred..reports are theat he might be out till October, so for at least 3 games you'll get a starting RB in Ronnie Brown, and you can get him cheap..

lots of talent out there

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I agree 100%, RBs are a dying breed in FFL especially in PPR leagues. This year I wait

 

[We Tigers]

I don't think it's a "disaster waiting to happen", but I do think it highlights how shallow the talent at RB really is. I'd rather take my chances loading up with RBs early and relying on QB, WR and TE depth later.

I agree with this. Don't invent too many reasons not to take an RB early. I don't see much difference than in the past several years; you have studs, high performers who have recently been hurt, older guys you can get a discount on because of their age, and young guns who showed flashes in limited time.I think people's impressions are colored by how good the top QBs and TEs were last year. They want a reason to pick them in the 1st and 2nd rounds. When everybody's zigging, pause for a moment and think about zagging. Could win you some leagues.

 

[OnTheReg]

I think people are underestimating Steven Jackson. The wheels are just going to fall off because he's 29? Past three years he played in 15, 16, 15 games. Fisher will use him 20 times a game.

 

[ldizzle]

Its not like the wr position is shallow where you could grab a marshall/white/welker type and bank on it. There are many wr that are going past the 3rd that could very well end up as top 10 or even top 5.

 

[The Noid]

I think people are underestimating Steven Jackson. The wheels are just going to fall off because he's 29? Past three years he played in 15, 16, 15 games. Fisher will use him 20 times a game.

Have to pick between him and Murray for my keeper. Keep going back and forth....

 

[HoTnickZ]

I think you're focusing way too much on the negatives. I agree 4-7 is a minefield, after that there are about 5 RB's in the next tier that present great value.

 

[packersfan]

In the first round, I may agree with you. Brees has nearly a 50 point advantage over QBs like Eli Manning. According to FBG projections, McFadden only has a ~40 point advantage over Bush.The only problem with your strategy is what if the RBs you are targeting are gone before you pick? Do you settle for the Kevin Smiths and Mark Ingrams who are total crap shoots?

That's my concern too. I'm also strongly considering bailing on RBs in the first two rounds. I'd love to get Martin or one of the Jacksons in the third but my worry is they'll be gone and I'll be stuck looking at guys like Bradshaw, Turner and Gore, none of whom I like this year. Kevin Smith wouldn't be bad in PPR but he's a durability risk and has 1/2 RBs possibly joining the fray as the season moves along. But I think that after the Top 3 RBs are gone there are so many issues with nearly every other RB that I'd rather take the stud talent at WR, QB or TE in the first two rounds and hope to get decent RBs at least after that.

 

[meyerj31]

I don't think it's a "disaster waiting to happen", but I do think it highlights how shallow the talent at RB really is. I'd rather take my chances loading up with RBs early and relying on QB, WR and TE depth later.

I agree with this. Don't invent too many reasons not to take an RB early. I don't see much difference than in the past several years; you have studs, high performers who have recently been hurt, older guys you can get a discount on because of their age, and young guns who showed flashes in limited time.I think people's impressions are colored by how good the top QBs and TEs were last year. They want a reason to pick them in the 1st and 2nd rounds. When everybody's zigging, pause for a moment and think about zagging. Could win you some leagues.

Quality. Love it. I just drafted at 1.11 and took Murray. Yes, Murray is a 1st round pick this year. Since the quality of RBs is diminishing, the guys with 20+ touches a game are worth more.MurrayMathewsHakeem NicksBradshawAntonio BrownPierre GarconReggie WayneCutlerGreg OlsenLockerI'm perfectly happy with what I ended up with to start my draft and I have a relative stranglehold on the RB position (3 in the top 15). While everyone else was fighting for a slew of potential RBs I had my pick of some quality WR3s. Waiting until the 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 7th round for my WRs I still ended up with four guys that I believe will have 1,000 yard seasons and are the best WRs on their team. I waited a long time on TE and QB so those could be weak points, but overall I like my roster.

 

[meyerj31]

In the first round, I may agree with you. Brees has nearly a 50 point advantage over QBs like Eli Manning. According to FBG projections, McFadden only has a ~40 point advantage over Bush.The only problem with your strategy is what if the RBs you are targeting are gone before you pick? Do you settle for the Kevin Smiths and Mark Ingrams who are total crap shoots?

That's my concern too. I'm also strongly considering bailing on RBs in the first two rounds. I'd love to get Martin or one of the Jacksons in the third but my worry is they'll be gone and I'll be stuck looking at guys like Bradshaw, Turner and Gore, none of whom I like this year. Kevin Smith wouldn't be bad in PPR but he's a durability risk and has 1/2 RBs possibly joining the fray as the season moves along. But I think that after the Top 3 RBs are gone there are so many issues with nearly every other RB that I'd rather take the stud talent at WR, QB or TE in the first two rounds and hope to get decent RBs at least after that.

Barring injury there is no way DMC finishes less than 40 points ahead of Reggie Bush this year. The talent and opportunity gap here is massive.

 

[Isotopes]

The top 15 running backs may have some question marks, but I would not want to rely upon Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson as my #1 running back. I think because the running back pool is so thin, it makes them more valuable. I plan on going rb/rb/rb if the right guys fall to me. I am picking out of the 4 spot in a 10 team league and hoping to land McCoy or Rice (Number 2 pick has already stated they are drafting Rodgers). In Round 2 I am hoping guys think like the OP and draft QB and WR and maybe even Gronk or Graham, which could leave me with two of the following; Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson.....if this pans out, I feel like a team with 3 of those running backs will be far superior to a team with Greene/Bush/Benson at rb1.

 

[Captain Hook]

I think people are underestimating Steven Jackson. The wheels are just going to fall off because he's 29? Past three years he played in 15, 16, 15 games. Fisher will use him 20 times a game.

and Pead is cheap insurance with upside

 

[Heep]

The top 15 running backs may have some question marks, but I would not want to rely upon Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson as my #1 running back. I think because the running back pool is so thin, it makes them more valuable. I plan on going rb/rb/rb if the right guys fall to me. I am picking out of the 4 spot in a 10 team league and hoping to land McCoy or Rice (Number 2 pick has already stated they are drafting Rodgers). In Round 2 I am hoping guys think like the OP and draft QB and WR and maybe even Gronk or Graham, which could leave me with two of the following; Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson.....if this pans out, I feel like a team with 3 of those running backs will be far superior to a team with Greene/Bush/Benson at rb1.

I think you will be disappointed with your team. Load up on sure fire WRs (or Gronk/Graham) and take a gamble on the RBs in the later rounds. It is the ticket to success this year. EBF says it perfectly...

 

[Isotopes]

The top 15 running backs may have some question marks, but I would not want to rely upon Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson as my #1 running back. I think because the running back pool is so thin, it makes them more valuable. I plan on going rb/rb/rb if the right guys fall to me. I am picking out of the 4 spot in a 10 team league and hoping to land McCoy or Rice (Number 2 pick has already stated they are drafting Rodgers). In Round 2 I am hoping guys think like the OP and draft QB and WR and maybe even Gronk or Graham, which could leave me with two of the following; Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson.....if this pans out, I feel like a team with 3 of those running backs will be far superior to a team with Greene/Bush/Benson at rb1.

I think you will be disappointed with your team. Load up on sure fire WRs (or Gronk/Graham) and take a gamble on the RBs in the later rounds. It is the ticket to success this year. EBF says it perfectly...

I completely disagree. The 2nd and 3rd tier wide receivers are much stronger than the 2nd/3rd tier rbs. Miles Austin/Mike Wallace/Steve Smith/Brandon Lloyd/Steve Johnson/Jeremy Maclin/Marquis Colston/Vincent Jackson/Dwayne Bowe/DeSean Jackson....most of these guys will be available after round 3 and are much better in your lineup than Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson

 

[ponchsox]

I would rather play it safe and go RB/RB first two rounds. That pretty much assures you two quality RBs. Are they risks? Sure, but that is why you draft a good bench. Rounds 3/4 are loaded with good receivers like Nelson, Nicks, Cruz, etc. so you can come out of the first four rounds set at RB and WR, take a QB, then go for value on the board.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The top 15 running backs may have some question marks, but I would not want to rely upon Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson as my #1 running back. I think because the running back pool is so thin, it makes them more valuable. I plan on going rb/rb/rb if the right guys fall to me. I am picking out of the 4 spot in a 10 team league and hoping to land McCoy or Rice (Number 2 pick has already stated they are drafting Rodgers). In Round 2 I am hoping guys think like the OP and draft QB and WR and maybe even Gronk or Graham, which could leave me with two of the following; Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson.....if this pans out, I feel like a team with 3 of those running backs will be far superior to a team with Greene/Bush/Benson at rb1.

So let's say you get 2 of the Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson quintet.

A little closer look at each one:

Forte is supposed to be the safest one. He has scored 17TDs in the last 3 years combined. Now he's got the best backup in Chicago since he's been there, and the backup is a quality goal line guy as well as a quality receiving back. Now lets add in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to the mix. Chicago now has a more potent passing attack than they have had in a long time. Forte may be a safe bet, but I think its for about 1300/5 combined.

Mathews is already hurt. The SD beat writer is saying he's out the first two weeks. You probably shouldn't start him week 3 either, as they may ease him back in. That's almost 25% of the regular season gone. Is it worth taking a guy in RD2 knowing he's going to miss that much time? Also knowing he's been brittle as glass in the past, and fairly likely to miss more time?

Peterson blew out all 3 ligaments in his knee in December. Check the history on RBs coming back from that. Good luck with that one. 900/6

Charles is a speed back coming off an ACL as well, with a TD vulture playing behind him. I think 1300/5 is optimistic.

Richardson is a wild card. But again you are getting already damaged goods on a very poor offense.

Meanwhile your some people in your league have started off their draft with studs that are very likely to perform at a high level consistently. Whose got the advantage?

 

[Warpig]

Don't over think. I went WR-WR-WR last year since I had a late 1st round pick in my redraft league and there were no RB's I felt comfortable with. My first 3 picks were Megatron, Vincent Jackson, and Santonio Holmes. That left me with the RB stable of people like Tim Hightower and Shonn Greene and the like. I think my 4th round pick was Jermichael Finley. As you can see, none of my players did squat other than Calvin. I think you must get a RB in one of the first 2 - 3 rounds and fill in with WR's. I waited on QB until the 5 or 6th round (maybe even later) and ended up with Eli Manning and Jay Cutler...not bad.

 

[packersfan]

Don't over think. I went WR-WR-WR last year since I had a late 1st round pick in my redraft league and there were no RB's I felt comfortable with. My first 3 picks were Megatron, Vincent Jackson, and Santonio Holmes. That left me with the RB stable of people like Tim Hightower and Shonn Greene and the like. I think my 4th round pick was Jermichael Finley. As you can see, none of my players did squat other than Calvin.

Yeah but I don't think that necessarily invalidates the waiting on RBs approach. Had you gotten stronger play from your WR2 and WR3 you would've been in much better shape. So while Hightower and Greene obviously didn't do much, VJax and Holmes also disappointed. I think that may have been the bigger problem.

 

[Isotopes]

The top 15 running backs may have some question marks, but I would not want to rely upon Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson as my #1 running back. I think because the running back pool is so thin, it makes them more valuable. I plan on going rb/rb/rb if the right guys fall to me. I am picking out of the 4 spot in a 10 team league and hoping to land McCoy or Rice (Number 2 pick has already stated they are drafting Rodgers). In Round 2 I am hoping guys think like the OP and draft QB and WR and maybe even Gronk or Graham, which could leave me with two of the following; Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson.....if this pans out, I feel like a team with 3 of those running backs will be far superior to a team with Greene/Bush/Benson at rb1.

So let's say you get 2 of the Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson quintet.

A little closer look at each one:

Forte is supposed to be the safest one. He has scored 17TDs in the last 3 years combined. Now he's got the best backup in Chicago since he's been there, and the backup is a quality goal line guy as well as a quality receiving back. Now lets add in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery to the mix. Chicago now has a more potent passing attack than they have had in a long time. Forte may be a safe bet, but I think its for about 1300/5 combined.

Mathews is already hurt. The SD beat writer is saying he's out the first two weeks. You probably shouldn't start him week 3 either, as they may ease him back in. That's almost 25% of the regular season gone. Is it worth taking a guy in RD2 knowing he's going to miss that much time? Also knowing he's been brittle as glass in the past, and fairly likely to miss more time?

Peterson blew out all 3 ligaments in his knee in December. Check the history on RBs coming back from that. Good luck with that one. 900/6

Charles is a speed back coming off an ACL as well, with a TD vulture playing behind him. I think 1300/5 is optimistic.

Richardson is a wild card. But again you are getting already damaged goods on a very poor offense.

Meanwhile your some people in your league have started off their draft with studs that are very likely to perform at a high level consistently. Whose got the advantage?

I agree with some of this, but my point is that there are no other rb candidates that have a likelihood of matching the performance of these guys. Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson are not going to give you a competitive advantage? To me, unless you can make a compelling argument for the running backs currently ranked in the 15-25 range (which is who you will have in your lineup if you draft wr/te/qb) then you haven't shown me that you are better off NOT drafting rb's in the early rounds.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Positional scarcity matters.

For those that promote WR/WR as the way to go in the first two rounds, you are loading up on the "sure things" at the deepest position this year. Outside of Calvin, the next 20+ WRs have similar projections. Sure, maybe Julio Jones goes off for 1400/12, but he isn't a sure bet for that.

Fitz is going as the 2nd WR on average at pick 13. I know he had 1400 yards with the same sad QBs last year, but is anybody actually projecting 1400 yards again? I own the guy, he is an awesome NFL WR, but it would not surprise me in the least if he falls to 82-1100-7. Good numbers, sure, but not top of the 2nd round good.

Who are people drafting from 6-12 at WR? I don't see any value there at all. McFadden, CJ, Forte, Murray... these guys have SIGNIFICANTLY more upside than any WR taken in this range.

There aren't that many RBs that are more than a crapshoot outside of the first couple of rounds. Sure, a lot of early RBs have warts. But sometimes quality is more important than quantity.

There is serious WR value very deep into the draft. Cruz, Nicks, Nelson, Harvin, and Bryant all have ADPs between 32 and 39. Demaryius Thomas, Austin, Maclin, Lloyd, V.Jackson, S.Johnson, A.Brown... all these guys are going between 48 and 59. It is entirely realistic, this year, that the WR20 is 3ppg behind the WR6, WR is THAT deep this year. If there was a clear cut top 5 WRs, then a big dropoff, then it would make more sense to go WR/WR. I just don't see that. I owuld be thrilled with Nicks as my WR1 after taking two strong RBs...

Here's the thing: every year some RB massively outplays his ADP. Maybe it is a backup that plays when the starter gets hurt, maybe a rookie makes a huge jump, whatever. But you are having to draft 5 or 6 of these lottery tickets hoping to hit. If you hit, AWESOME. But the guy who goes RB/RB/WR/WR is drafting those same lottery tickets and has nearly the same chance to hit as you... except he already has two RBs whose healthy FLOORS are equal to the ceiling of your WR/WR "studs" you took in round 1/2, AND his round 3/4 WRs are just as good as your round 1/2 WRs.

So, yeah, RBs carry more injury risk than other positions... but the workhorses still carry way more upside as well. The fewer workhorses that there are, the more valuable they become.

Obviously teams can win with many different draft strategies. I just don't think in a competitive league that "safe" is the way to go. Taking lower upside players early may be "safe", but it makes it much more difficult to regain the lost ground on the RB/RB drafter that doesn't lose either of those RBs to injury. Sure, he may have more "risk", but he likely has much more reward as well.

I'm just not seeing WR/WR as a good choice. I think it is best to get at least one of those workhorses and go from there. Donald Brown and Reggie Bush are RB3s that you hope become RB2s... and that is IF you even land them in the draft. The owners that draft Murray/McFadden/MJD/Mathews/Richardson also recognize the risk they are assuming and will be targeting the same RB3s that you are targeting.

 

[Possum]

Maybe I'm just too picky and maybe my dynasty outlook is blurring my redraft vision, but to me this looks like one gigantic minefield. I don't even know where to start.

for redraft, my comments are in red:

1. Arian Foster - Seems a bit overrated to me. Good in the passing game, but YPC dropped and Ben Tate performed really well last year.

2. Ray Rice - No complaints here. He would be my #1 pick because he seems like such a safe option.

3. LeSean McCoy - McCoy would be my #2 pick. If he stays healthy, there's no reason why his production should suffer much.

I'd rank these guys 1) Rice 2) McCoy 3) Foster

4. Darren McFadden - Are you kidding me? He has never stayed healthy in his career. PPG monster, but brittle as glass. One good year in 4 NFL seasons. I'd like to bat more than .250 with my top 10 picks.

This is mostly just gut feeling, but I think this will be McFadden's biggest year to date - he's fully healthy, he reported to camp in great shape, and he's easily the most talented player on the Raiders' offense. I'd take the big 3, Calvin Johnson, Rodgers and Brady ahead of him, but I'd have a hard time passing him up anywhere after that.

5. Chris Johnson - Jekkyl and Hyde. There's no doubting his talent, but he has slipped from his peak of a couple years ago. I don't hate him here, but I wouldn't feel very good about it either.

Everything I've read on him this preseason says he looks to be in great shape. I'm still not convinced that this coaching staff knows how to get the most out of him, but I think he'll be a solid RB1

6. Matt Forte - A lot of mileage on his body, but should be good for another year at least. No complaints here.

I don't think Forte's nearly as safe a pick as most people do - I feel like Bush is nearly as talented a back as Forte (maybe equally talented) and is way more of a threat to steal touches than Marion Barber was last year. Add in the fact that Marshall and Jeffery are easily the most talented WRs the Bears have had at any time in Forte's career - a whole lot more of Cutler's passes are going to be going to receivers than they did previously. I have a hard time seeing much upside with Forte this year.

7. Marshawn Lynch - Knucklehead coming off career highs in rushing and TDs. I would like him a lot more as a RB2, as he's a fairly mediocre player.

I think Marshawn will get a ton of work in Seattle - like you, I'd rather have him as an RB2 but I think he finishes as a low-end RB1

8. Jamaal Charles - Massively overrated like McFadden. He's an electric runner, but not a workhorse back. Add Hillis and an ACL injury into the mix, and I'm really struggling to get excited.

agreed, although he has looked good this preseason and I'm feeling better about him than I did back in June-July

9. Ryan Mathews - He could be money down the stretch, but he's brittle and already injured.

agree

10. Trent Richardson - Similar to Mathews, although I think he's a better talent. There is risk here, but I think there's also significant upside.

I think on pure talent alone he's about as can't miss as it gets, but the knee stuff and lack of camp reps would scare me from drafting him as my RB1

11. DeMarco Murray - Faded a little bit after his torrid start last year and then got injured again. Like McFadden, he has great talent and terrible durability.

I think he's the most likely candidate on this list to end up outside the top 20 and I seriously doubt he finishes top 10

12. Adrian Peterson - Less than 12 months removed from a catastrophic knee injury. Lots of mileage on his body.

I don't know what to think about him this year coming off that huge injury - I would probably not draft him until late 3rd round and not as a RB1

13. Steven Jackson - Reliable, but another guy who could seemingly break down at any moment. 2100+ career carries is insane. He's on borrowed time.

Yes, he's got a lot of mileage, but this guy is a physical beast and has played 15, 16 and 15 games the last three years. He's in great shape, has no serious competition at RB for touches and will be the bellcow for a Jeff Fisher team - I think he's going to have a huge season.

14. Fred Jackson - Is he even the most talented RB on his team?

Yes, he's the most talented RB on his team - let's not get ahead of ourselves here on Spiller's ascendance. Last year Jackson was on pace for over 2000 total yards from scrimmage and he looks like he's 100% again so far this preseason. Barring injury, I think FJax will get at least a 60/40 split of the touches in Buffalo and produce the kind of numbers that people are drafting Matt Forte for in the late first round.

15. Ahmad Bradshaw - "Is he even the most talented RB on his team?" He's also got some durability issues to boot.

I do still think he's the most talented Giants back overall and will be a solid RB2 barring injury.

The good news is that there are some interesting candidates falling late:

18. Reggie Bush

25. Shonn Greene

49. Jonathan Dwyer

agreed on these guys (especially Dwyer, who looks great this preseason) and I'd add a few more interesting late-round possibilities:Mark Ingram (think he starts to take over a lot of Thomas' touches)

Peyton Hillis (I could see him finishing higher than Charles)

Donald Brown (could easily finish top 15 or higher)

Mikel Leshoure (I think he's a lot better bet than Smith to be Detroit's main back the majority of the season)

Ryan Williams (I've never been all that impressed with Beanie as an NFL back)