Are this year's redraft RBs a disaster waiting to happen? (1 Viewer)

[packersfan]

Who are people drafting from 6-12 at WR? I don't see any value there at all. McFadden, CJ, Forte, Murray... these guys have SIGNIFICANTLY more upside than any WR taken in this range.

Perhaps but I think they also have far greater downside (especially McFadden, CJ and Murray given the Cowboys' offensive issues). Not only are guys like Fitz, White, Welker (in PPR) and Jennings "safe" but they also have much higher floors than the RBs you listed. In the first two rounds it's not only important in my opinion to get upside but you want to minimize risk as well. Once the Top 3 RBs are gone, the rest of the position is nothing but risk. Meanwhile, while the value may not be great with those WRs given the depth at the position this year there's far less risk to be concerned with (especially if you're including Graham and Gronk in the mix).

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Last time I'm going to post on this topic, but I completely disagree. Everyone is talking about how RB is a dying breed... Right! so why aren't the few feature backs we have left being drooled over? what guys in the later rounds even have a shot at a feature role? I actually like Bush this year and wouldn't mind him as my RB 2 , but as a RB1?

with the first and 2nd round RBs. at least you know they are getting 20 touches a game as long as they are healthy. its all about touches and opportunity in redraft and I just do not see the opportunity for just about anyone past the 3rd round.

Sure, injuries are going to hit and you certainly could get lucky in the later rounds, but last year has seemingly blinded everyone to how important RBs are.

I've already gone over quite a bit here:

http://fantasy-footballu.com/zblog/2012/8/15/reason-to-question-a-qb-round-one.html

why I think QBs are going to regress this year and I think, because of last year, people are devaluing RBs because of the insane numbers QBs put up.

If your like me and you think the pool of QB stats are going to come back down to earth then you might want to reconsider RBs this year.

I also think people are scarred from last year because of what happened with all the injuries. with Jamaal Charles Adrian Peterson Rashard Mendenhall Matt Forte Darren McFadden Peyton Hillis contract situation, Jahvid Best Ahmad Bradshaw Fred Jackson and Felix Jones all getting hurt far before the fantasy playoffs... pretty much everyone who owned a RB last year was deeply effected. even Arian Foster and Ryan Mathews missed games last year.

But rather than this being a trend for future results, I think it was more of an outlier .

If you think 80% of RB1s are going to be on IR by mid season this year, and if that ends up being the normal situation...then I will concede the importance of the position.

I really think the lockout had a huge impact on the game last year, a lot of things that happened last year just dont even seem logical to a league trending towards a passing game.

I think the insane amount of injuries to defense and RBs was due to a complete change of schedule, rather than people just becoming more fragile at an unprecedented rate.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Good work, as always EBF.

 

[Heep]

The top 15 running backs may have some question marks, but I would not want to rely upon Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson as my #1 running back. I think because the running back pool is so thin, it makes them more valuable. I plan on going rb/rb/rb if the right guys fall to me. I am picking out of the 4 spot in a 10 team league and hoping to land McCoy or Rice (Number 2 pick has already stated they are drafting Rodgers). In Round 2 I am hoping guys think like the OP and draft QB and WR and maybe even Gronk or Graham, which could leave me with two of the following; Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson.....if this pans out, I feel like a team with 3 of those running backs will be far superior to a team with Greene/Bush/Benson at rb1.

I think you will be disappointed with your team. Load up on sure fire WRs (or Gronk/Graham) and take a gamble on the RBs in the later rounds. It is the ticket to success this year. EBF says it perfectly...

I completely disagree. The 2nd and 3rd tier wide receivers are much stronger than the 2nd/3rd tier rbs. Miles Austin/Mike Wallace/Steve Smith/Brandon Lloyd/Steve Johnson/Jeremy Maclin/Marquis Colston/Vincent Jackson/Dwayne Bowe/DeSean Jackson....most of these guys will be available after round 3 and are much better in your lineup than Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson

I just feel if you dont get McCoy, RRice or Foster, Calvin/Fitz/AJ Green/Julio/Graham/Gronk are the way to go. Too many ???s at RB after that. Non ppr, I could see your point. PPR, I'm taking WR all day...

 

[EBF]

Who are people drafting from 6-12 at WR? I don't see any value there at all. McFadden, CJ, Forte, Murray... these guys have SIGNIFICANTLY more upside than any WR taken in this range.

Perhaps but I think they also have far greater downside (especially McFadden, CJ and Murray given the Cowboys' offensive issues). Not only are guys like Fitz, White, Welker (in PPR) and Jennings "safe" but they also have much higher floors than the RBs you listed. In the first two rounds it's not only important in my opinion to get upside but you want to minimize risk as well. Once the Top 3 RBs are gone, the rest of the position is nothing but risk. Meanwhile, while the value may not be great with those WRs given the depth at the position this year there's far less risk to be concerned with (especially if you're including Graham and Gronk in the mix).

Yea, exactly. I don't try to win my redraft league in the first round. Using a top 10 pick on a guy like McFadden, who has had one good season in his four year career, is just madness. I'll grab a Calvin/Fitz/Marshall/Rodgers instead knowing that I'm getting someone who's as close to a lock at his position as possible. If you can't get one of the RB locks like Foster, McCoy, or Rice this year, I think it makes sense to wait a while and draft some of the high upside guys with less hype. I think players like Richardson, Bush, Martin, and Spiller have the ability to be top 10 ppr backs. If you can get two of those guys and add in a Benson or Greene in the middle rounds, I think you'll be fine at RB.

 

[Isotopes]

The top 15 running backs may have some question marks, but I would not want to rely upon Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson as my #1 running back. I think because the running back pool is so thin, it makes them more valuable. I plan on going rb/rb/rb if the right guys fall to me. I am picking out of the 4 spot in a 10 team league and hoping to land McCoy or Rice (Number 2 pick has already stated they are drafting Rodgers). In Round 2 I am hoping guys think like the OP and draft QB and WR and maybe even Gronk or Graham, which could leave me with two of the following; Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson.....if this pans out, I feel like a team with 3 of those running backs will be far superior to a team with Greene/Bush/Benson at rb1.

I think you will be disappointed with your team. Load up on sure fire WRs (or Gronk/Graham) and take a gamble on the RBs in the later rounds. It is the ticket to success this year. EBF says it perfectly...

I completely disagree. The 2nd and 3rd tier wide receivers are much stronger than the 2nd/3rd tier rbs. Miles Austin/Mike Wallace/Steve Smith/Brandon Lloyd/Steve Johnson/Jeremy Maclin/Marquis Colston/Vincent Jackson/Dwayne Bowe/DeSean Jackson....most of these guys will be available after round 3 and are much better in your lineup than Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson

I just feel if you dont get McCoy, RRice or Foster, Calvin/Fitz/AJ Green/Julio/Graham/Gronk are the way to go. Too many ???s at RB after that. Non ppr, I could see your point. PPR, I'm taking WR all day...

I still am of the opinion the wr crop is so full this year, that it makes it unnecessary to draft one in the early rounds. Outside of CJ - there are literally dozens of wr's that should be comparable in production....can't say that about rb's.

 

[Heep]

The top 15 running backs may have some question marks, but I would not want to rely upon Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson as my #1 running back. I think because the running back pool is so thin, it makes them more valuable. I plan on going rb/rb/rb if the right guys fall to me. I am picking out of the 4 spot in a 10 team league and hoping to land McCoy or Rice (Number 2 pick has already stated they are drafting Rodgers). In Round 2 I am hoping guys think like the OP and draft QB and WR and maybe even Gronk or Graham, which could leave me with two of the following; Forte/Matthews/Peterson/Charles/Richardson.....if this pans out, I feel like a team with 3 of those running backs will be far superior to a team with Greene/Bush/Benson at rb1.

I think you will be disappointed with your team. Load up on sure fire WRs (or Gronk/Graham) and take a gamble on the RBs in the later rounds. It is the ticket to success this year. EBF says it perfectly...

I completely disagree. The 2nd and 3rd tier wide receivers are much stronger than the 2nd/3rd tier rbs. Miles Austin/Mike Wallace/Steve Smith/Brandon Lloyd/Steve Johnson/Jeremy Maclin/Marquis Colston/Vincent Jackson/Dwayne Bowe/DeSean Jackson....most of these guys will be available after round 3 and are much better in your lineup than Shonn Greene/Reggie Bush/Ced Benson

I just feel if you dont get McCoy, RRice or Foster, Calvin/Fitz/AJ Green/Julio/Graham/Gronk are the way to go. Too many ???s at RB after that. Non ppr, I could see your point. PPR, I'm taking WR all day...

I still am of the opinion the wr crop is so full this year, that it makes it unnecessary to draft one in the early rounds. Outside of CJ - there are literally dozens of wr's that should be comparable in production....can't say that about rb's.

I'm testing it now. I am in a $100 redraft where it's 1.5 PPR TE, 1 PPR WR, and 1/2 PPR RB. Starting requirements are QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/FLEX/FLEX/K/DI traded 1.01 for 1.06 and bumps in the 2nd/4th rounds. Right now I have J. Graham, Andre Johnson, Welker, and G. Jennings. 1/2 PPR has devalued RBs and 1.5 PPR has inflated the # of TEs taken so it's a little harder to judge since its not the standard 1 PPR for all skill positions...

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I don't try to win my redraft league in the first round. Using a top 10 pick on a guy like McFadden, who has had one good season in his four year career, is just madness. I'll grab a Calvin/Fitz/Marshall/Rodgers instead knowing that I'm getting someone who's as close to a lock at his position as possible.

If you can't get one of the RB locks like Foster, McCoy, or Rice this year, I think it makes sense to wait a while and draft some of the high upside guys with less hype. I think players like Richardson, Bush, Martin, and Spiller have the ability to be top 10 ppr backs. If you can get two of those guys and add in a Benson or Greene in the middle rounds, I think you'll be fine at RB.

And here is the problem, imo. I agree that Richardson or Martin can very well be a strong starter, but the closer we get to the season, the less likely it is that they fall to you in the 3rd. (you are very unlikely to get both, their current ADP is in the 3rd) We can agree that we are talking about an initial draft spot of 6 or lower... so you are targeting these two RBs in the 3rd, between picks 30 and 36 in a 12 teamer. Their current ADP is early to mid third round... So if you have a late 3rd, or maybe even a mid 3rd in a week if their ADP rises, you miss out on what are probably the last two RBs that have a shot at being workhorses. Now you get to have Reggie Bush as your RB1... soooo many warts with Reggie with only RB2 upside, how can you want that? And Spiller is more likely to be the lesser RB in a RBBC than to be even a RB2. I like his talent, but there is little reason to think he is getting his shot this year. With few exceptions, all the RBs you would have to take have RB2 *ceilings*, barring injury to a starter in front of them, and are more likely to be RB3s or worse.Basically I think the "safe" early WR picks are being nullified by the unsafe RB picks. You can get the same or similar floor and ceiling from 3rd and 4th round WRs, then take the higher upside RBs early, the 3rd/4th round WRs, then target the same RBs you are talking about targeting in the 5th and beyond. Now you have strong upside at WR AND RB, with the same depth RBs, but they are now just depth and insurance, not required starters.

 

[corpcow]

I think people are underestimating Steven Jackson. The wheels are just going to fall off because he's 29? Past three years he played in 15, 16, 15 games. Fisher will use him 20 times a game.

Have to pick between him and Murray for my keeper. Keep going back and forth....

Not to turn this into an AC post, I think S-Jax is a great target for redraft but I'm generally selling (if reasonably high) in keeper/dynasty. If you're talking about the option of keeping Murray vs. S-Jax indefinitely, I think that's an easy call in Murray's favor. And, Murray is probably the #5 RB for me off the board even in redraft. I am a huge CJ fan as many of you know - leading the bandwagon with EBF even as a rookie - so he's my RB4 but Murray is definitely in the mix.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Good topic.

Just looking at a RB list, I definitely agree that RB4+ aren't guys that I really am thrilled with as fantasy first round picks. All have big glowing warts.

That said, I'm definitely not taking any WR other than Calvin in the first round, either. WR2 (Fitz) is pretty similar to a big pile of guys down to Marshall, Cruz, and Nicks. Those guys are going in the late 2nd - 3rd (sometimes early 4th in non-PPR).

QB and TE depend on league set up - non TE required, 1 QB with 6 RB/WR starters and/or 3 pt TD passes can make QBs and TEs not 1st round worthy.

Depending on league set up, I think I'll be unhappily grabbing a RB in the late first as often as not.

 

[Astangi]

I agree with the OP re: the uncertainty surrounding most of the top-15 RBs on the boards. That said, this year would seem ideal for an Upside-down approach, except for the fact that there really isn't much breakout potential beyond Round 4, which is where RBs start being drafted with the Upside-down methodology.

Sure, Richardson, Martin, the Jacksons and even Sproles (in PPR or .5PPR) could push for the top-10, but good luck getting any of those guys past Round 3. I wouldn't even include Bush in that group with the 2 youngsters behind him and rumblings that he will be used less between the tackles.

Historically, you were able to draft Foster, Rice, ADP or Lynch in the 5th round or later prior to their breakout seasons. Outside of Hillis, Spiller ( who would both need injuries to have a shot at top-10) or Kevin Smith ( who is probably the biggest injury risk in the entire RB draft besides Best ), I don't really see anyone with a shot of massively outperforming up into the top-12 without injury help. Guys like Rice, Foster, ADP, etc didn't need injury help; they earned a bigger role through talent and surprised people.

That said, I think a middle-draft slot is actually a good thing, this year. You get a shot at Calvin, an elite QB or an elite TE in the first with the intent of getting Richardson, Martin, the Jaxes or even Sproles in the next two rounds. I was even able have McFadden slip to me in the 2nd and grab Sproles in the 3rd of a 14-teamer. After Sproles, it dries up pretty darn quick...I don't think anyone want Donald Brown as their #1.

 

[EBF]

I don't even like CJ Spiller, but he is a lot more dynamic than Fred Jackson. If things break right for him, he could be a guy who single-handedly wins titles for teams in PPR redraft leagues this year. He is very explosive and he was big down the stretch last year. Jackson is 31 years old and destined to slip at some point. I'm not convinced that Spiller will require a Jackson injury in order to become a big player this year.

I think some of the other players I highlighted have the potential to surprise. Cedric Benson is old and not very gifted in the passing game, but he was still relatively productive last season and he now has the luxury of playing with an elite supporting cast for the first time in his career. I definitely have him pegged as a guy who could surprise in a big way.

I'm not saying you take these guys are your RB1 and feel good about it, but there's definitely value to be had beyond the top guys. And I'll maintain that players like McFadden, Charles, and Murray are massive bust risks who don't warrant their current ADP. Yes, they have upside, but so much more risk than what's being acknowledged. I do agree that WR is deep this year, but I think I'd still probably rather grab a Brandon Marshall type player in that range and then come back and try my luck with some slightly cheaper RBs later. I don't personally have a big gap in expectations between those backs and guys like Richardson, Martin, and Bush, who will be available 1-2 rounds later.

 

[jurb26]

Positional scarcity matters.For those that promote WR/WR as the way to go in the first two rounds, you are loading up on the "sure things" at the deepest position this year. Outside of Calvin, the next 20+ WRs have similar projections. Sure, maybe Julio Jones goes off for 1400/12, but he isn't a sure bet for that.Fitz is going as the 2nd WR on average at pick 13. I know he had 1400 yards with the same sad QBs last year, but is anybody actually projecting 1400 yards again? I own the guy, he is an awesome NFL WR, but it would not surprise me in the least if he falls to 82-1100-7. Good numbers, sure, but not top of the 2nd round good.Who are people drafting from 6-12 at WR? I don't see any value there at all. McFadden, CJ, Forte, Murray... these guys have SIGNIFICANTLY more upside than any WR taken in this range.There aren't that many RBs that are more than a crapshoot outside of the first couple of rounds. Sure, a lot of early RBs have warts. But sometimes quality is more important than quantity.There is serious WR value very deep into the draft. Cruz, Nicks, Nelson, Harvin, and Bryant all have ADPs between 32 and 39. Demaryius Thomas, Austin, Maclin, Lloyd, V.Jackson, S.Johnson, A.Brown... all these guys are going between 48 and 59. It is entirely realistic, this year, that the WR20 is 3ppg behind the WR6, WR is THAT deep this year. If there was a clear cut top 5 WRs, then a big dropoff, then it would make more sense to go WR/WR. I just don't see that. I owuld be thrilled with Nicks as my WR1 after taking two strong RBs... Here's the thing: every year some RB massively outplays his ADP. Maybe it is a backup that plays when the starter gets hurt, maybe a rookie makes a huge jump, whatever. But you are having to draft 5 or 6 of these lottery tickets hoping to hit. If you hit, AWESOME. But the guy who goes RB/RB/WR/WR is drafting those same lottery tickets and has nearly the same chance to hit as you... except he already has two RBs whose healthy FLOORS are equal to the ceiling of your WR/WR "studs" you took in round 1/2, AND his round 3/4 WRs are just as good as your round 1/2 WRs.So, yeah, RBs carry more injury risk than other positions... but the workhorses still carry way more upside as well. The fewer workhorses that there are, the more valuable they become. Obviously teams can win with many different draft strategies. I just don't think in a competitive league that "safe" is the way to go. Taking lower upside players early may be "safe", but it makes it much more difficult to regain the lost ground on the RB/RB drafter that doesn't lose either of those RBs to injury. Sure, he may have more "risk", but he likely has much more reward as well.I'm just not seeing WR/WR as a good choice. I think it is best to get at least one of those workhorses and go from there. Donald Brown and Reggie Bush are RB3s that you hope become RB2s... and that is IF you even land them in the draft. The owners that draft Murray/McFadden/MJD/Mathews/Richardson also recognize the risk they are assuming and will be targeting the same RB3s that you are targeting.

Excellent post. I think people waiting on RBs are making a huge mistake. There's way too much value at WR in rounds 3-6 to be grabbing WRs not named Calvin in rounds 1 and 2. The fact that workhorse RBs are becoming more and more scarce makes them more valuable, not less. Why would you pass on something in short supply in favor of something of great supply?

Agreed, with both of you. Again this topic isn't really providing much unless we incorporate the ADPs of all the RBs listed in the OP. saying to wait on RBs is easy in theory but hard in application from all my years of doing things.