wilked
Footballguy
Interesting chatter here...I wonder how this is not tampering though?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3033203
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3033203
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ARod to the Cubs (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter wilked
- Start date
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
If A-Rod puts the Yankees on his back in the post-season, I think he could be the biggest sports marketing superstar in team sports blowing by Manning. But a big part of that will be him in the pinstripes. The story of greatness, and then adversity and then him overcoming it and being greater than ever, he could print money(which he'll do no matter what he does in the postseason or where he lands). NY has really come around on him, to the point where I think he could survive anything short of a total meltdown in October. If he bolts, after basically saying he wouldn't, he'll wear the NY bullseye forever, no matter what he did in postseason. Owning the team, eh, nice opportunity, has to be a tempting consideration to a player, but lets face it, its a minority stake and A-Rod could bascially buy a team on his own now if he wanted to. I think its Boras window dressing to keep the Yanks from getting too cute. There are only so many teams that can pay him the cash he's looking for, the Cubbies have a lot of money tied up already. I do believe Cashman when he says if he opts out, they are out of the debate. Why give away that 30-40 mil the Rangers are paying? They could split the difference, the Yanks could over pay by 20 mil of the percieved market value(or actual depending on what tampering Boras finds out) and keep everyone happy)HOWEVER, if A-Rod goes out meekly in the postseason, if he somehow blew a series against the Mets or the Red Sox, all bets are off, and I'd think it would be more than likely that he'd bolt. Life is too short and why deal with another year of whispers, questions, what have you.
It will be interesting, I'd put it at 65-35 he stays, pending an average post season. Great post season, 90-10, Bad postseason 25-75
dparker713
Footballguy
There is zero chance he doesn't opt out after this season. Regardless of what he does in the post season, he's opting out. The Yanks and their fans can scream bloody murder all they want, but he and Boras will opt out. They're not going to leave over 100 mil on the table just because ARod kinda sorta said he'd stay in NY and the Yanks want to continue to receive a subsidy from Texas. As for him needing to produce in the post season, Yankee fans need a wake up call. ARod is the ONLY reason the Yanks are going to make the postseason. Making the playoffs is not a birthright of the Yankees and they should kiss ARod's feet for carrying the team on his back for so much of this season. Even if he goes 0 fer in a series they lose, why wouldnt the fans blame one of the other all-stars on that roster making 10+ mil per year?
The bidding is going to start at a 10 year deal at atleast 20 mil per, if the Yanks want him, they're going to need to back up the Brinks to get him. Cant see anything like a hometown discount coming for this one.
ETA - Football >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Baseball. Atleast in marketing terms. No way no how does ARod enter anywhere near Peyton's marketing stratosphere.
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NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
I don't know if we're in the era of guys, even an A-Rod, getting a 10 year deal. He got one, but the climate has changed since that time, and is anyone going to be wanting to pay him close to 40 mil in his 40's(assuming a backloaded deal). I'm sure Boras already has the feelers but lets look at the field for A-Rod:
Anaheim
San Fran
Chicago Cubs
ChiSox
Boston
Detroit
Anaheim has the cash, an attractive situation, a ballpark he loves and a big city feel. The early leader. The could concievably hit this magic 10 year/300 mil number
San Fran has Bonds coming off the books, a gorgeous, if not pitcher friendly park. But are they real players to shell out 300 million? You spend money to make money, sure, but they are still paying for that ballpark, they are in year one of the Zito albatross and are in a rebuilding mode. Lincecum and Cain are a nice base, so it could be attractive, less than likely
Chicago Cubs, personally I don't see the full resoltion of ownership tying together in his free agency window. My personal guess would be the whole ownership story was a Boras angle but that would be speculation clearly. Lots of money tied up on this team, even for the Cubbies. He'd love the park though. A definite maybe.
Chi Sox, there had been rumblings in the past, they could be real players if the Cubs got so far as a world series this year, never mind winning it, as they would be a real afterthough in town. But 300 mil, I don't see it, but I think they'd be in the discussion so I'd call them a maybe.
Boston, would naturally love to tweak the Yanks, has some deep pockets, but this might be a budget buster and every internal report from there suggests this wouldn't happen. If they are on the fence financially, I can't see them coming to that level of commitment. Of course Boras fleeced Theo on Nancy, so anything possible. Unlikely
Detroit, smaller market dark horse, but Boras seems to use this as another safety valve for clients he didn't properly evaluate for. Seems far fetched to me, but lots of baseball guys have them on the radar. Unlikely.
So we are basically really left with the Cubs and Angels competing for A-Rod, at least in a hypothetical. Please feel free to add any teams you think might have the means and the motivation to get in this. Cubs, in transition, make it less likely. I'm going to keep the number for salary at 30 million but assume that any team signing him would cap at age 40, making it an eight year deal. 240 million. If that is the assumed baseline, the Yanks could offer him an extension at 220 millon, which coupled with the 35 millon or so the Rangers are still paying, makes it financially viable for both sides. Its more money than any team can offer A-Rod and the Yanks save 15 million in the process.
IF A-Rod overplays his hand here, he may not find here are not as many suckers as Tom Hicks out there willing to hand over a quarter of a billion dollars for a guy about to exit his prime. Thats how the Yanks lock him up in advance and everyone wins. But whatever, hypotheticals, but I'm sure thats whats in both parties mind right now.
As far as NY fans appreciating A-Rod, I think they do, but I think you also need to understand the team more. A-Rod has been absolutely indespensible and invaluable this year, he has carried this team without question and its silly to even get into the discussion of replacing him. He is irreplacable. He flat out WON GAMES for the Yanks, two walk homers, huge homer off Papelbon in Fenway, he was a game breaker and a game changer. In 2007, he is indeed the biggest component of the going back to post season.
However, he is not necesarily going to be that in 2008. The fate and fortune of this team changed dramatically when youth got some opportunity. The fact that it coincided with Matsui, Cano, Abreu and Damon walking up helped, but the young arms will lead this team going forward, and if anything, the Yanks should have learned that outslugging people hasn't worked. Plenty of sticks have come through town, but when it used to be parades coming through, it was based on pitching and some quality, professional ABs, not a lot of stat padding against the Tampas and Texas teams of the world. The Yanks are definately better with A-Rod, I hope he comes back. He looks like he's having fun this year and it makes him as fun to root for as anyone, but if he leaves, he leaves. Their fate in 08 and beyond is not stritctly boound to A-Rod.
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Piniella and A-Rod have a very close relationship.
tikigods
Footballguy
I wonder if the Patriots are involved in this tampering?
Statorama
Footballguy
From the article:
That ought to kill the foundation of the story. It's just Boras getting his clients name out there, reminding GM's and fans that his client will likely be a free agent at the end of the season.Cubs are a good fit though. Whoever buys that team is going to have some deep pockets, and the Cubs don't really have a viable long term SS candidate on their roster or in the minors.
wilked
Footballguy
I don't really think ARod is a viable long term solution at short...
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Because he's the best player in MLB today? Look, the Yankees can ##### and moan about losing that 30 million, but at the end of the day there isn't a viable replacement for him unless the Red Sox foolishly let Lowell walk (while they've rebuilt their pitching prospects, the Yankees still are a couple of years away from totally rebuilding the offensive side of the farm). He basically has them over a barrel and knows it. Cashman should just pay the guy his money for the rest of his career and be happy he has quite possibly the best player in baseball history locked up for the next 6-7 years.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
Just pay him and be done with it...If they don't they are going to throw good money after bad trying to find replacements...
dparker713
Footballguy
You left off the one team that might relish taking ARod away from the Yanks more than the Red Sox - the Mets. There will be plenty of teams lining up to offer him a contract in the neighborhood of 8 years. He's the best player in the game, someone will over pay to get him. He is a Boras client after all.
I really dont think Yanks fans appreciate ARod. If he starts off their first series 0-10, he'll be crucified.There is a huge difference between being a contributor on a stacked lineup and being the pillar that lineup is based on. None of the young Yankees have shown anything like the ability needed to lead that lineup. So far they've played pretty well and they look promising, but none look ready to assume ARods place. And I wouldnt be ready to hand the rotation over to all those young guys at the same time as trying to replace ARod, rebuilding doesnt go over very well with Yanks fans.
culdeus
Footballguy
I was under the impression an opt-out and resign with the yanks would cause the subsidy to vanish.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
Yes, once he opts out, Texas is no longer responsible for any portion of any subsequent contract he signs, even if it is with the Yankees
Tau837
Footballguy
Where exactly would the Mets play him with Wright and Reyes already at third and short? Don't see a fit here.On the subject of Boston, Manny is only under contract one more season. So conceivably they could add ARod and only have one season of having to pay both of them. That could help them consider it, but I still doubt they'd do it. Like wilked, I don't see him moving back to short, but note that Lowell is a free agent after this season. What a lineup they would have with ARod, Ortiz, and Manny batting 3-4-5 for that one year.
wilked
Footballguy
This should dispel the rumors....
http://www.nypost.com/seven/09272007/sport..._rod_octobe.htmI would have substituted 'slick floor' for 'wet floor' personally, but other then that, sensational writing
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
No doubt at this point. I mean, it was a thing all season, and it will only remain a "thing". IF he doesn't turn things around. They ain't dead yet. Leave some men on base with an 0-fer and some K's and the Yanks get swept at home, I think Cashman could get away with doing what I think he wants to do deep down, cut the chord. If they want him, it's a pretty easy forumla to keep him. $. I wouldn't overpay for the priveldge of this constant headache. He's a great player and he was the biggest part of the regular season. He could still be a big part of the postseason. Its not even so much that he's not delievering, although when you watch Manny turn around a K-Rod fastball and hit it off the coke bottle, you wonder about. Its just that there is too much distraction to it. I'm really suprised by this, I thought they would keep him as I mentioned above, I thought he would be capable this postseason. This is honestly suprising to me, but its pretty much the one scenario that could have put him out of town. One more bad day for him and the team, and I think he's gone and I think that might be the best thing for him and the team. Furthermore, there is no law that says he has to opt out here or he has to get extended. We might see how much HE wants to be here. He can opt out next year and the year after as well. If he didn't opt out, no matter what he did the rest of the way, I think the fans would stay behind him, as it would be incontrovertible proof he wanted to be here. Oh well, speculation is at least 36 hours premature right now, lets see how he finishes.
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dparker713
Footballguy
Seriously, 0-2 with 2 walks in the first game, and an 0-fer in a game with a lights out pitcher where no one hit. Yankees fans are ridiculous. Why hasnt Captain Jeter done anything?
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
10 days after end of World Series, I believe
Yankee23Fan
Fair Tax!
Give him a blank check, the owners box and print his name on the big bat.
I really don't understand the lack of love for this guy. I have no problem with cheering that team for the next 7 or 8 years with him at the hot corner, and maybe DH towards the end as he chases 800 in the new park.
I really don't understand the lack of love for this guy. I have no problem with cheering that team for the next 7 or 8 years with him at the hot corner, and maybe DH towards the end as he chases 800 in the new park.
Not a lot of time to get a deal done with NY. Texas has to be thrilled at the prospect of saving $29M.
Statorama
Footballguy
Alex Rodriguez will be able to play adequate SS until he's 45. He's the best. 
Someone from the Cub front office needs to pull Scott Boras aside and say "you know, it's too bad that we have those pesky tampering rules, or else I could tell you we'd pay him 32 million a year".This is THE absoulte one guy in baseball that I would break the bank for. Is he worth twice as much as Soriano? You bet your ### he is.Oh, and 
Limp Ditka
Footballguy
Because breaking the bank for him has worked so well for other two teams that have done it.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Well he was the best SS on the Yankees.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
SeveredHorseHeads
Footballguy
I don't get why people say this. What is this based on? Defense is wildly overrated anyway. I'm sure he'd be fine.wilked said:
RnR
Footballguy
While I love the "math" of baseball as much as anyone this side of Bill James, this is where you separate who has played the game and who hasn't. Just because it is something you can't accurately quantify to calculate on your spreadsheet doesn't mean it isn't critical to the success of a baseball team.
wilked
Footballguy
ARod has gotten a lot bigger since he played SS, and a lot older. Can you find an example of a SS moving to 3rd, then going back to SS 5 years later? He doesn't have the range to play the position well. Sure, you can play him out there, and let him butcher the position...he will make up for those runs allowed to a large degree, but it diminishes his value quite a bit
SeveredHorseHeads
Footballguy
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I think he'd be able to play about average to slightly below average SS. For a team like the Cubs, who's offensive production at SS was brutal last year, I think he'd more than make up for it. I think moving infield positions isn't as hard as advertised, especially for someone who won some gold gloves (I admit, pretty meaningless) at SS. It's not like he's never played it before.
SeveredHorseHeads
Footballguy
I didn't say it wasn't important, just not as important as the average fan can make it out to be. If people think that Ryan Theriot would be a better option at short than A Rod because he's a better defender, then you are overrating defense.I think the bolded is a little silly. I've played plenty of baseball.
the moops
Footballguy
Nobody is arguing that Ryan Theriot would be a better option. Just that A-Rod's overall value is diminished because of his poor defense. Same goes with guys like Manny, Carlo Lee, Jeter, etc....
SeveredHorseHeads
Footballguy
Wasn't really commenting on anyone here but I belong to a Cubs message board where the bolded has been argued by some. Sorry if that came across poorly.I think the difference of opinion here is how much it would reduce his value. Personally, I think that the Cubs are so starved for OBP and SLG that Arod would be such a vast improvement offensively that whatever defensive issues came with him, he would still be more than worth it. Defensively the Cubs were good last year, offensively, not so much. Then again, I think he could play replacement level defense, others do not think so. That sort of thing is pretty hard to project. I feel that his athletic ability and success in the past would help him make the transition back to SS, but I could be wrong.
Tau837
Footballguy
Can you provide a link to any of these "many" measures? Bill James showed over 20 years ago that the difference between the best and worst fielding shortstops couldn't be more than 25 runs a season. I find it extremely hard to believe that Manny, or any leftfielder, could play such poor defense as to cost his team 30 runs in any season.
