Ask dynasty IDP questions here (1 Viewer)

[Tick]

I'll give an opinion on any dynasty IDP question, as long as you use reasonable capitalization and punctuation.

Others are encouraged to respond as well... I have some gaps (DTs, CBs, contract leagues) and some prejudices (against 3-4 OLBs and for safeties in DB spots).

2014 thread

 

[Tick]

There are usually some IDP startup draft questions... my thoughts:

• Use tiers heavily in dynasty startups. Don't try to get the top guy in a tier.
• Don't have a specific round picked out for taking your first IDP - see how the draft goes, and try to get a guy lower in your tier, not higher.
• In general, let IDPs slide - scheme changes kill value faster on the IDP side than on the offensive side, so there's more turnover.
• There are very few DBs who are reliable - you can do really well there by taking guys near the end of the preseason.
• On the offensive side, you want to skew young in a dynasty startup. On the IDP side, don't worry about it. Milk the last few years out of a guy like Daryl Smith or Charles Woodson and replace them with Stephen Tulloch and Tyvon Branch in a couple of years.
• I might be a year or two late in hanging on to this idea, but I would still shoot for a top-tier DE or two as my main targets. They tend to hold value fairly well.
• Look for position problems in your league manager software - if they mislabel a 3-4 OLB as a DE, jump on him. If you separate out DTs and there's a DE listed as a DT, bump him up your rankings.
• Late, you could take some shots on guys who could get a new role this offseason - the best of these are 3-4 OLBs who could end up as 4-3 DEs, either through scheme change or free agency.

 

[Flying Elvis]

Miles Burris.

What do we make of him? He had the right situation this season and ranked 38 in my league which starts 4 LB per team with 12 teams. Is he bench bound or has he secured a position going forward? He seems unspectacular but that could very well be b/c he's on a bad team that I never see.

Also, who will be the 2015 version of Keenan Robinson?

 

[Tick]

Miles Burris.

What do we make of him? He had the right situation this season and ranked 38 in my league which starts 4 LB per team with 12 teams. Is he bench bound or has he secured a position going forward? He seems unspectacular but that could very well be b/c he's on a bad team that I never see.

Also, who will be the 2015 version of Keenan Robinson?

I own Burris and have no faith in him. He had a perfect setup this season, with Roach and Branch out, and still wasn't really startable. A new coaching staff will shake things up, and I doubt he'll be a starter for the Raiders next year.

I pimped Keenan Robinson a lot last summer, but I don't really have an equivalent identified this offseason. Some guys to consider are Devon Kennard, Arthur Brown (if traded), Jon Bostic, Christian Jones, and Avery Williamson. I'm just not clear on who's owned across leagues. I suppose Kevin Minter should be listed there as well, since Nate Irving surprised us all after we left him for dead last offseason.

 

[Flying Elvis]

No faith in him is pretty much how I felt all season. Thanks.

You did pimp Robinson, and I own him b/c of it.

 

[Brooklyn70]

Happy New Year!!!!

Is Zach Brown(Titans) a good hold in dynasty IDP league?

Or is Gerald Hodge the better IDP to have long term?

Zach Brown will be coming back from an injury.

Gerald Hodges filled in very well for Anthony Barr when he was injured.

 

[Tick]

Wow, I hadn't noticed how Hodges finished the year!

After week 13, in Zealots scoring, he had: 21.2, 10, 6, 10

Even with that finish, though, I'd go with Brown. I'm not sure how they'll line everyone up this year, but that's a bad team that will have tackle opportunities, and he's got a 3-down skill set. Hodges just seems like a guy a team will always be looking to replace. I guess I just think Brown is more talented, and that it will mean better opportunities. We'll see if he can take advantage...

 

[eNdblu]

I'm entering year 2 of a startup 16tm PPR IDP league that only starts 5IDP (1-2DL, 2-3LB, 1-2DB). Sacks = 2, TKL = 1.5, ASST = 0.5, TFL = 1.5, QBH = 1

What are your thoughts on offering Cobb for Watt? [SIZE=14.3999996185303px]Would a side have to add anything to even out the value? We can start up to 4WRs. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]Watt outscored the next DL by nearly 150pts w/ my league's scoring and was the top IDP scorer in my league.[/SIZE]

The team that owns Watt is hurting pretty badly on O after drafting heavily on D early in our startup last year.

I feel pretty good about my WR core if I were to move Cobb.

 

[Tick]

Wow, it's hard to see trading Cobb (FBG dynasty WR11 in their last rankings) for an IDP, and it's hard to see trading any offensive player for an IDP with such shallow starting lineups... but I guess Watt breaks all the rules.

So looking at your roster, what was the gap between Watt and your top DL, and what was the gap between Cobb and your second bench WR?

 

[eNdblu]

Wow, it's hard to see trading Cobb (FBG dynasty WR11 in their last rankings) for an IDP, and it's hard to see trading any offensive player for an IDP with such shallow starting lineups... but I guess Watt breaks all the rules.

So looking at your roster, what was the gap between Watt and your top DL, and what was the gap between Cobb and your second bench WR?

Watt outscored my top DL (Ninkovich) by 190 pts.

My top 2 bench WRs behind Cobb (305), AJG (205), and ODB (320) were Landry (255pts) and Randle (185), with CPatt, Charles Johnson, Stedman Bailey, Duron Carter, and Jaron Brown also rostered.

 

[Tick]

I guess I can see that objectively, it probably makes sense to make the trade. That said, I couldn't make myself do it. Even with Cobb in a situation where he might not be back in GB next season, I just don't trust the longevity of an IDP compared to a young WR.

 

[jonboltz]

FWIW, in a high IDP scoring dynasty I just took Watt at 1.02. Traded up to get him, felt I got the SOD. Gronk++ is the only way I'd entertain moving him.

 

[eNdblu]

I've got Demeco Ryans rostered for 6% of my salary cap. Is he a hold or a drop?

 

[Tick]

I've got Demeco Ryans rostered for 6% of my salary cap. Is he a hold or a drop?

At that price, a drop. He's faded to a borderline LB3... those guys should be 1%.

 

[GridironMenace]

FWIW, in a high IDP scoring dynasty I just took Watt at 1.02. Traded up to get him, felt I got the SOD. Gronk++ is the only way I'd entertain moving him.

How can any player be the SOD at the 1.02 spot, let alone one in which you traded up for? And to be brutally honest, if you traded up to take Watt at the 1.02 you overpaid for him. That's ok if you got your guy, but it's still overpaying even if he is worth the 1.01.

 

[GridironMenace]

So looking at your roster, what was the gap between Watt and your top DL, and what was the gap between Cobb and your second bench WR?

IMO these aren't the correct questions to ask. IMO, the correct questions are:

1) How many points did Watt score compared to the #2 DE in the league.

2) How many points did Watt score compared to the #1 WR in the league.

3) How many points did Watt score compared to Cobb.

 

[LususV]

The hardest part I'm having in my one dyno IDP is how to value LBs vs. offensive guys. On this team, I'm set at DE (Watt/JPP), and have a lot of ??? youth at WR/RB to deal from (a lot of owners are targeting my Davante Adams and Cody Latimer). My LBs are a wasteland (my top LBs are Daryl Washington, Sean Lee, Telvin Smith, Brian Cushing, Stephen Tulloch, with some lesser guys with talent).

What level LB do you equate to these WRs 1 to 1? One offer I've received is Mosley+Harrison Smith+two lesser LBs for the duo, and I've been fighting to get Shazier added to his offer (he's balking). Are either of us being out of whack in our valuations?

(pretty standard PPR, balanced IDP (slight tackle heavy) scoring; 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 superflex, 2 flex / 1 DT, 2 DE, 3 LB, 2 S, 2 CB, 1 flex).

 

[Tick]

I don't trade offensive players for defensive players very often. I can't see trading away Adams or Latimer for a Mosley/Smith combo straight-up, much less both of them.

For one thing, you get back two top-level LBs this year in Lee and Washington... I wouldn't panic. Maybe think of spending a 3rd round pick on an LB and focus on them in your free agency and training camp pickups, but don't give away first-round WR picks after one season for them.

 

[Crippler]

I would think about Latimer for those 2 D players if you feel you need them. That is not an insane offer. But both for 2 lesser players seems out to lunch. Starting 11 O players though makes things tight on O. I know in my league last year that Latimer was pick 2.3 while Mosley was pick 2.8. Smith was pick 3.15 in this draft year but he was a steal. I put him about 2.16. Do I trade 2.3 for 2.8 and 2.16 in a draft. I think so. But it matters if you feel your making your starters that much better and if Latimer is just an extra piece.

 

[Tick]

I would think about Latimer for those 2 D players if you feel you need them. That is not an insane offer. But both for 2 lesser players seems out to lunch. Starting 11 O players though makes things tight on O. I know in my league last year that Latimer was pick 2.3 while Mosley was pick 2.8. Smith was pick 3.15 in this draft year but he was a steal. I put him about 2.16. Do I trade 2.3 for 2.8 and 2.16 in a draft. I think so. But it matters if you feel your making your starters that much better and if Latimer is just an extra piece.

While this all makes sense, it comes down to where you rank the players. For me last season, I had it:

Latimer 10th

Mosley 29th

Smith 39th

However, given how little Latimer did, and Peyton's retirement looking pretty close, and Osweiler's tepid performance plus free agency, and Mosley's great rookie year, those rankings converge quite a bit after their rookie seasons.

 

[Brooklyn70]

What are your thoughts on Christian Kirksey?

Do you think he will make an impact in hi second year?

 

[saintfool]

What are your thoughts on Christian Kirksey?

Do you think he will make an impact in hi second year?

robertson graded out below kirksey at PFF. kirksey's rookie status might have kept him off the field more than one would like. if pettine has shown anything it is that his whole team is a meritocracy. put in the consistent effort, day in and day out, and you'll get rewarded. kirksey has the rep as a leader and smart player. he can figure out what is needed to get ahead of robertson.

 

[Tick]

Kirksey is definitely worth holding and going after if he's a free agent - he could be a 3-down guy if he does what we expect him to do, and the coaching staff doesn't hold him down.

 

[Brooklyn70]

What are your thoughts on Calvin Pryor?

Do you think he receives a boost in value with Todd Bowles taking over as head coach?

 

[Tick]

Sorry, I don't have a strong opinion on Pryor. I'm trying to think through Bowles's history and the safety production... Rashad Johnson was very good last season, but I think that's been about it.

Hmm - I guess I don't put him in a top tier of safeties, just a guy in the group of guys worth taking a shot with... there are generally more of those guys than there are roster spots in IDP leagues. If he's cheap, get him. If he's expensive, get some other guy instead.

 

[Papa John's]

In a 12 Team league (big play scoring), what is the value in 2016 picks for the following guys?

Sio Moore, OAK LB

Jelani Jenkns, MIA LB

Von Miller, DEN LB - (I think he is about to have a career year)

Scoring is basically as follows:

6 for TD

6 for Sack

4 for fumble recovery/interception

2 for Tackle

0.6 for Assist

2 for TFL

10 Safety

Thanks, in advance, for any advice/opinions.

 

[matttyl]

Assuming Watt would be the top dynasty IDP player right now (I can't even see an argument for anyone else) who would round out your top 5? Assuming you start 2 DLs, 2 LBs and 2 DBs each week.

In the above, I doubt a DB would even crack your top 15, correct?

 

[Papa John's]

In a 12 Team league (big play scoring), what is the value in 2016 picks for the following guys?

Sio Moore, OAK LB

Jelani Jenkns, MIA LB

Von Miller, DEN LB - (I think he is about to have a career year)

Scoring is basically as follows:

6 for TD

6 for Sack

4 for fumble recovery/interception

2 for Tackle

0.6 for Assist

2 for TFL

10 Safety

Thanks, in advance, for any advice/opinions.

Assuming Watt would be the top dynasty IDP player right now (I can't even see an argument for anyone else) who would round out your top 5? Assuming you start 2 DLs, 2 LBs and 2 DBs each week.

In the above, I doubt a DB would even crack your top 15, correct?

Watt is the top IDP. In fact, he is the top player scoring nearly 100 more points than the next guy (Aaron Rodgers). DB are really only starters because we have to field 2 at CB and S. Lineup requirements on the IDP side are 1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 2 CB, 2 S and 2 flex (excluding DE's from the flex spot).

 

[Tick]

In a 12 Team league (big play scoring), what is the value in 2016 picks for the following guys?

Sio Moore, OAK LB

Jelani Jenkns, MIA LB

Von Miller, DEN LB - (I think he is about to have a career year)

Scoring is basically as follows:

6 for TD

6 for Sack

4 for fumble recovery/interception

2 for Tackle

0.6 for Assist

2 for TFL

10 Safety

Thanks, in advance, for any advice/opinions.

Whatever someone's willing to pay? I'd give a 5th for Jenkins or Moore. Holy crap have tgey screwed up typing with an ipad! probably a 4th for Miller in that scoring system. Maybe a late 3rd.

 

[Tick]

Assuming Watt would be the top dynasty IDP player right now (I can't even see an argument for anyone else) who would round out your top 5? Assuming you start 2 DLs, 2 LBs and 2 DBs each week.

In the above, I doubt a DB would even crack your top 15, correct?

Watt, David, Kuechly, Mosley, Not sure I can come up with a 5th. Maybe Quinn, Levy maybe?No DB anywhere on my list.

 

[Papa John's]

In a 12 Team league (big play scoring), what is the value in 2016 picks for the following guys?

Sio Moore, OAK LB

Jelani Jenkns, MIA LB

Von Miller, DEN LB - (I think he is about to have a career year)

Scoring is basically as follows:

6 for TD

6 for Sack

4 for fumble recovery/interception

2 for Tackle

0.6 for Assist

2 for TFL

10 Safety

Thanks, in advance, for any advice/opinions.

Whatever someone's willing to pay? I'd give a 5th for Jenkins or Moore. Holy crap have tgey screwed up typing with an ipad! probably a 4th for Miller in that scoring system. Maybe a late 3rd.

Appreciate the insight. In our scoring though, I would never sell those players for those picks.

Watt was the #1 overall player. Justin Houston was the #13 overall player. Both of them were higher scoring than guys like Dez, Gronk, JPP, Russell Wilson, Cobb, and a whole host of others. I think Miller will approach that stratosphere this year (similar to his 2012 campaign).

Appreciate the thoughts though. It helps me get my arms around what others are likely thinking in talks. Thanks.

 

[jonboltz]

In a 12 Team league (big play scoring), what is the value in 2016 picks for the following guys?

Sio Moore, OAK LB

Jelani Jenkns, MIA LB

Von Miller, DEN LB - (I think he is about to have a career year)

Scoring is basically as follows:

6 for TD

6 for Sack

4 for fumble recovery/interception

2 for Tackle

0.6 for Assist

2 for TFL

10 Safety

Thanks, in advance, for any advice/opinions.

Whatever someone's willing to pay? I'd give a 5th for Jenkins or Moore. Holy crap have tgey screwed up typing with an ipad! probably a 4th for Miller in that scoring system. Maybe a late 3rd.

As someone that has all of these guys in various big play formats of similar structure, these offers wouldn't even remotely get a counter. Would need a 2nd for Von to take offer seriously, and 3rd for SIo.

 

[Tick]

Yeah, it's rare that I'd be willing to paywhat an IDP's owner thinks he's worth.

 

[Crippler]

In my home league/other league where we start 11 D guys and have 16 teams, I would think Von and Sio would both be later 2nd rounders. Jenkins would probably be a 4th rounder. He is not that good and Miami might bring in better LB's this year. But the owner of Jenkins would think different and would not take that offer.I am not sure he would take a 3rd. I own Von in one of my leagues and not sure if I would take a late 2nd or not. I own Sio in my other league and same thing. Would matter if an O guy dropped or you are just replacing with one of the LB's in this draft. McKinney, Kendricks,. Dawson, Anthony, maybe Thompson, Perryman and Beasley being the big ones. Will they last to the late 2nd even A few will be will the top guy. I doubt it and see them as 2.4 to 2.8 range.

 

[Papa John's]

In my home league/other league where we start 11 D guys and have 16 teams, I would think Von and Sio would both be later 2nd rounders. Jenkins would probably be a 4th rounder. He is not that good and Miami might bring in better LB's this year. But the owner of Jenkins would think different and would not take that offer.I am not sure he would take a 3rd. I own Von in one of my leagues and not sure if I would take a late 2nd or not. I own Sio in my other league and same thing. Would matter if an O guy dropped or you are just replacing with one of the LB's in this draft. McKinney, Kendricks,. Dawson, Anthony, maybe Thompson, Perryman and Beasley being the big ones. Will they last to the late 2nd even A few will be will the top guy. I doubt it and see them as 2.4 to 2.8 range.

This was very helpful. Thank you. I really appreciate the analysis.

 

[matttyl]

Assuming Watt would be the top dynasty IDP player right now (I can't even see an argument for anyone else) who would round out your top 5? Assuming you start 2 DLs, 2 LBs and 2 DBs each week.

In the above, I doubt a DB would even crack your top 15, correct?

Watt, David, Kuechly, Mosley, Not sure I can come up with a 5th. Maybe Quinn, Levy maybe?No DB anywhere on my list.

And kinda a follow up question to this...

How many IDPs (again, aside from Watt) would be worth a future or even current 1st round rookie pick? Assume a 10 team league, so a guaranteed top 10 draft pick.

 

[Papa John's]

Assuming Watt would be the top dynasty IDP player right now (I can't even see an argument for anyone else) who would round out your top 5? Assuming you start 2 DLs, 2 LBs and 2 DBs each week.

In the above, I doubt a DB would even crack your top 15, correct?

Watt, David, Kuechly, Mosley, Not sure I can come up with a 5th. Maybe Quinn, Levy maybe?No DB anywhere on my list.

And kinda a follow up question to this...

How many IDPs (again, aside from Watt) would be worth a future or even current 1st round rookie pick? Assume a 10 team league, so a guaranteed top 10 draft pick.

What are the scoring and roster parameters?

 

[matttyl]

Assuming Watt would be the top dynasty IDP player right now (I can't even see an argument for anyone else) who would round out your top 5? Assuming you start 2 DLs, 2 LBs and 2 DBs each week.

In the above, I doubt a DB would even crack your top 15, correct?

Watt, David, Kuechly, Mosley, Not sure I can come up with a 5th. Maybe Quinn, Levy maybe?No DB anywhere on my list.

And kinda a follow up question to this...

How many IDPs (again, aside from Watt) would be worth a future or even current 1st round rookie pick? Assume a 10 team league, so a guaranteed top 10 draft pick.

What are the scoring and roster parameters?

10 teams, 31 man rosters - start 1 qb, 1 rb, 2 wr, 2 flex, 1 te, 2 dl, 2 lb and 2 dbs. pretty standard scoring both offense and defense - 1 point per tackle, half point for assisted tackle, 3 points for sack or INT, 2 points each for a forced or recovered fumble.

That means a sack/fumble recover all by itself would be worth 8 points (1 for the tackle, 3 for the sack, 2 for the forced fumble and 2 for the recovery).

My thoughts - being only a 10 team league where you only start 2 at each position, you can easily get guys off waivers for free (as I did last year with Lawrence Timmons and LB Brandon Marshall). My current IDP roster is Watt, C Wake, D'Qwell Jax, Timmons, B Marshall, Morgan Burnett and Barry Church (I like to run my defensive roster thin to allow rostering of more offensive players). Should I offer up a future 1st round pick for a solid weekly starting LB - would it be worth it with the LBs I already have? What about for another DL?

 

[-CE-]

General question - how long is a guy elite in an IDP league? It's it less than the shelf life on a RB? I imagine a guy like Watt would be good for 5 years, are there many guys better than that?

 

[matttyl]

General question - how long is a guy elite in an IDP league? It's it less than the shelf life on a RB? I imagine a guy like Watt would be good for 5 years, are there many guys better than that?

Watt has already been elite for 3...I hope he has more than only 2 left.....

I'd say on average, stud IDPs have longer shelf lives than do their offensive (well, non QB) counter parts.

 

[-CE-]

General question - how long is a guy elite in an IDP league? It's it less than the shelf life on a RB? I imagine a guy like Watt would be good for 5 years, are there many guys better than that?

Watt has already been elite for 3...I hope he has more than only 2 left.....I'd say on average, stud IDPs have longer shelf lives than do their offensive (well, non QB) counter parts.

So longer than say an AJ Green or Julio?

 

[Roundhead]

Your thoughts on a few young linebackers:

Avery Williamson

Devon Kennard

Christian Jones

Kevin Pierre-Louis

Thanks!

 

[matttyl]

General question - how long is a guy elite in an IDP league? It's it less than the shelf life on a RB? I imagine a guy like Watt would be good for 5 years, are there many guys better than that?

Watt has already been elite for 3...I hope he has more than only 2 left.....I'd say on average, stud IDPs have longer shelf lives than do their offensive (well, non QB) counter parts.

So longer than say an AJ Green or Julio?

WRs have longer shelf lives than RBs, you asked about RBs. All in though, I'd say pretty even with those two WRs you listed. I mean Mario Williams is still producing huge numbers, and he's been around like a decade.

 

[saintfool]

Your thoughts on a few young linebackers:

Avery Williamson

Devon Kennard

Christian Jones

Kevin Pierre-Louis

Thanks!

williamson is a modest buy for me. i think there is some flux there in terms of scheme.

christian jones is up in the air. everyone expects them to move to 3-4 but nothing has been said officially. they don't have the personnel really. jones has been talked up a little by the coaches as an effort/hustle guy. i would wait to see how things develop before investing anything in him.

KPL has no immediate value if they keep their current players.

 

[Tick]

General question - how long is a guy elite in an IDP league? It's it less than the shelf life on a RB? I imagine a guy like Watt would be good for 5 years, are there many guys better than that?

Watt has already been elite for 3...I hope he has more than only 2 left.....

I'd say on average, stud IDPs have longer shelf lives than do their offensive (well, non QB) counter parts.

I disagree with this. Scheme changes kill IDPs all the time, and defensive players get hurt more often than offensive players IMO.

 

[Tick]

General question - how long is a guy elite in an IDP league? It's it less than the shelf life on a RB? I imagine a guy like Watt would be good for 5 years, are there many guys better than that?

Watt has already been elite for 3...I hope he has more than only 2 left.....I'd say on average, stud IDPs have longer shelf lives than do their offensive (well, non QB) counter parts.

So longer than say an AJ Green or Julio?

WRs have longer shelf lives than RBs, you asked about RBs. All in though, I'd say pretty even with those two WRs you listed. I mean Mario Williams is still producing huge numbers, and he's been around like a decade.

Except when he's a 3-4 DE, which he has been from time to time, including next season most likely.

 

[Tick]

I agree - I'd rank them Willamson-Jones-Kennard-(big gap)-KPL.

I haven't checked on Bramel's tiers, but I'd put floor/ceiling like this:

Williamson: LB3-LB2

Jones: drop-LB2

Kennard: drop-LB2

KPL: drop-drop

 

[cbt]

Hi, Originally posted (incorrectly) in the main assistant coach forum,,

Big play IDP scoring, (IDP isn't my strongest area)

Drop Lamarr Houston for Hunt (now that Bengals have dropped Geathers) or see if Houston can bounce back from the ACL?

Thoughts on Hunt long term?

Thanks,,

IDP Roster (start 3 DL, 3 LB, and 3 DB)

Griffen, Everson MIN DE
Hughes, Jerry BUF DE
Houston, Lamarr CHI DE
Jones, Chandler NEP DE
Pierre-Paul, Jason NYG DE
Houston, Justin KCC LB
Jones, Christian CHI LB ®
Marshall, Brandon DEN LB
Timmons, Lawrence PIT LB
Williamson, Avery TEN LB ®
Church, Barry DAL S
Ihedigbo, James DET S
Ward, T.J. DEN S

 

[Tick]

Tough call. I think I'd go with Hunt, just because we know Houston's ceiling already. But I'm not so high on Hunt, since he hasn't really done anything yet. You would think we would have seen something exciting by now.

 

[matttyl]

How many IDPs (again, aside from Watt) would be worth a future or even current 1st round rookie pick? Assume a 10 team dynasty league, so a guaranteed top 10 draft pick. I'd think Kuechly and David, maybe JPP. Anyone else?