Assessing Mileage On Running Backs (1 Viewer)

[Andy Herron]

In your offseason fantasy football conversations, these names undoubtedly came up.

Rudi Johnson. Shaun Alexander. Edgerrin James.

These two sentences (give or take a creative adjective) likely followed:

1. He killed me last year.

2. He has a lot of miles on him.

Ah, the "miles on a running back" reference.

It's topical -- we live in a $4-per-gallon-gas, better-get-yourself-a-hybrid world. It's overused -- analysts toss the phrase around ad-nauseam along with the "tread-on-his-tires" and "how much is left in his tank?" metaphors.

But is it real? Is there a way to quantify the mileage on running backs so owners know in advance which backs will break down?

Let's give it a whirl. Here's a formula to determine mileage on running backs. First, the variables:

Season: 10,000 miles per year.

Injuries: 1,000 miles per missed game

Carries: 5 miles each.

Receptions: 5 miles each.

Now total all of those variables. Voila! You have a running back's mileage. Here's a look at the mileage of the first 20 backs taken in our experts mock draft, starting with the backs with the fewest miles:

TOTAL MILES

1. Adrian Peterson: 13,285

2. Marshawn Lynch: 14,490

3. Ryan Grant: 22,090

4. Maurice Jones-Drew: 23,095

5. Joseph Addai: 23,840

6. Reggie Bush: 26,365

7. Laurence Maroney: 26,930

8. Marion Barber: 35,810

9. Frank Gore: 37,140

10. Brandon Jacobs: 37,850

11. Ronnie Brown: 46,355

12. Willie Parker: 47,100

13. Steven Jackson: 52,805

14. Larry Johnson: 69,885

15. Willis McGahee: 75,365

16. Brian Westbrook: 77,805

17. Clinton Portis: 81,575

18. LaDainian Tomlinson: 85,115

19. Jamal Lewis: 113,550

20. Fred Taylor: 145,775

Observations: The top seven backs have spent two years or less in the league. Out of those backs, Addai and Lynch (and possibly Peterson) are the only every-down backs not stuck in a two-back system. ... For all of the talk about Peterson's fragile nature, Lynch missed more games and took more pounding in his first year. ... Barber, Gore, Jacobs and Brown all have three years in the league, and they should be drafted in that order, which corresponds to their mileage. ... Jackson and Tomlinson are the higher-mileage backs (50,000-plus miles) with the least injury concerns.

Tip: Be careful at 100,000 miles: There's a reason owners hesitate before drafting Lewis or Taylor. Running backs start breaking down at either age 30 or, for this column's sake, 100,000 miles. Those three backs that killed you last year? Alexander (30 years old, 100,950), Rudi Johnson (28, 108,710) and James (29, 122,355) crossed at least one mark last year. Taylor and Lewis appear to be the exception to this rule, but keep in mind Taylor is 32 and Lewis turns an "old" 29 in August. Both have detailed medical histories. Don't make either more than a No. 2 back. Also, Tomlinson will hit 100,000 miles after this season -- something to think about in keeper leagues.

Now, let's look at the miles each running back puts on per year:

MILES PER YEAR

1. Ryan Grant: 11,045

2. Maurice Jones-Drew: 11,547

3. Willie Parker: 11,775

4. Joseph Addai: 11,920

5. Marion Barber: 11,936

6. LaDainian Tomlinson: 12,159

7. Frank Gore: 12,380

8. Brandon Jacobs: 12,616

9. Brian Westbrook 12,967

10. Steven Jackson: 13,201

11. Reggie Bush: 13,183

12. Adrian Peterson: 13,285

13. Laurence Maroney: 13,465

14. Clinton Portis: 13,595

15. Larry Johnson: 13,977

16. Jamal Lewis: 14,193

17. Marshawn Lynch: 14,490

18. Fred Taylor: 14,577

19. Willis McGahee: 15,073

20. Ronnie Brown: 15,451

Observations: Grant's average is skewed because he hasn't been a starter for a full season yet. ... Tomlinson's average is way lower than Peterson's, another indicator there's less injury risk. And another reason to take L.T. No. 1. ... The Colts aren't overusing Addai, and that's a good thing. ... Again, Lynch's high one-year mileage has to be a concern for keeper leaguers. ... Westbrook and Bush have similar numbers because of their high reception totals. ... Gore's average is much lower than expected. Maybe he isn't such a risky first-round pick.

Tip: Check the manufacturer: In other words, the college they came from. Look at Brown's average. The former Auburn running back can't keep going at that pace, especially when you look at former Auburn backs Rudi Johnson (15,530 miles per year) and Carnell Williams (17,036). It doesn't stop there. Kenny Irons couldn't even get through an exhibition game, and we all remember what happened to Bo Jackson's hip. Former Miami Hurricanes (McGahee, Gore, Portis) have leg injury issues. The Minnesota Golden Gophers, meanwhile, seems to have it right. Barber and Maroney seem to be fairly durable, or at the very least, properly driven.

Finally, let's combine the two statistics (take the average of each back's ranking in those categories) to see which backs are the least worn out heading into the '08 season. (Note: In ties, the younger back gets the advantage):

LEAST WORN-OUT BACKS

1. Ryan Grant

2. Maurice Jones-Drew

3. Joseph Addai

4. Willie Parker

5. Adrian Peterson

6. Marion Barber

7. Reggie Bush

8. Frank Gore

9. Marshawn Lynch

10. Brandon Jacobs

11. Laurence Maroney

12. Steven Jackson

13. LaDainian Tomlinson

14. Brian Westbrook

15. Larry Johnson

16. Clinton Portis

17. Ronnie Brown

18. Willis McGahee

19. Jamal Lewis

20. Fred Taylor

Observations: Portis is a little low, and with the new West Coast in offense in Washington, a repeat of his solid '07 season seems unlikely. ... Parker is a little high. His spot near the top seems safe, but for the wrong reason. Rookie Rashard Mendenhall is going to steal carries. ... Johnson is an enigma. Yeah, he's worn out. Yeah, he's injury prone. Despite his objections, if the Chiefs are true to their word and cut his carries, it might add a year or two to his career and increase his fantasy value.

Tip: Mix and match: Using this list, the approach to take on draft day is take one of the backs in the top half and one in the latter half. There's a reason Jones-Drew and Taylor are on opposite ends of this list, and it works just fine for the Jaguars. The same goes for your fantasy team. The top 10 backs might have fewer carries, but there's also less injury risk. The guys in the bottom 10 are more of the workhorses, players who aren't saddled with committees or two-back systems. The tradeoff is they are more likely to blow a knee. Going with a combination of Bush and Tomlinson (also great receivers) or Barber and Maroney (together again!) might be the winning ticket.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The Minnesota Golden Gophers, meanwhile, seems to have it right. Barber and Maroney seem to be fairly durable, or at the very least, properly driven.

Maroney???

 

[radballs]

Lots of strange assumptions going on here. And all of the mileage figures appear to be arbitrary and not at all predictive.

 

[Andy Herron]

The Minnesota Golden Gophers, meanwhile, seems to have it right. Barber and Maroney seem to be fairly durable, or at the very least, properly driven.

Maroney???

I hear ya. I didn't author it, but only brought it here to share (and discuss), keep in mind.However, I think the emphasis is on the two being "properly driven" although "seem" to be fairly durable does raise questions, I agree.I do think Maroney will prove differently this season though.

 

[Tau837]

I assume this whole thing is meant to be tongue in cheek... if not the tip on checking the manufacturer makes it a joke. Good (serious) thread on this topic HERE.

 

[foxco]

Tip: Check the manufacturer: In other words, the college they came from. Look at Brown's average. The former Auburn running back can't keep going at that pace, especially when you look at former Auburn backs Rudi Johnson (15,530 miles per year) and Carnell Williams (17,036). It doesn't stop there. Kenny Irons couldn't even get through an exhibition game, and we all remember what happened to Bo Jackson's hip. Former Miami Hurricanes (McGahee, Gore, Portis) have leg injury issues. The Minnesota Golden Gophers, meanwhile, seems to have it right. Barber and Maroney seem to be fairly durable, or at the very least, properly driven.

 

[gianmarco]

No offense, but I wish I could get back the time I spent reading through that.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... Here's a formula to determine mileage on running backs. First, the variables: Season: 10,000 miles per year. Injuries: 1,000 miles per missed game Carries: 5 miles each. Receptions: 5 miles each. Now total all of those variables. Voila! You have a running back's mileage.

Don't wish to be harsh but the old saw comes to mind, garbage in garbage out. Can't but the conclusions because the starting parameters are, to be kind, lacking. What about, significance or cumulative amount of injuries, number of HIGH/LOW touch seasons, age, body type, and a host of other things that aren't touched on. The formula seems too simplistic and I would imagine people might be able to provide other threads that touch on the subject and/or some good suggestions to improve the formula but as it stands right now the formula is too restrictive, not enough to draw solid conclusions IMHO.

 

[AB in DC]

Of course it's simplistic...it's supposed to be simplistic.

Can't anyone just appreciate simplicity for what it is?

 

[gianmarco]

Of course it's simplistic...it's supposed to be simplistic.

Can't anyone just appreciate simplicity for what it is?

There's a difference between simplicity and pulling completely arbitrary numbers off the top of your head.

 

[Crippler]

I am curious how LT stacks up with the mileage put up in the end by some of the greats ?????

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I know most are bashing this thread, but I found it comical...

 

[SSOG]

Of course it's simplistic...it's supposed to be simplistic.

Can't anyone just appreciate simplicity for what it is?

There's a difference between simplicity and inanity.What if I were to create a new metric called "Gas left in the tank". Each season would deplete a gallon of gas, each carry would deplete .01 gallons, and an injury that caused someone to miss a game depleted 50 gallons. The starting tank size is based on the average number of games started by RBs from your home state divided by the number of games missed by RBs from your university.

Do you see what the problem is? All of those numbers are ludicrously arbitrary and therefore have no meaning. My list will have guys with injuries WAY lower than the previous list, but neither list can claim to be more valid than the other. And basing discussions on the injury history of players from an arbitrarily chosen social group is equally pointless. This guy's list will say that Peterson has way lower "mileage" than Tomlinson. My list would show that Tomlinson has way more "gas left in the tank" than Peterson. Both lists would be equally useless.

The whole "mileage" concept is a decent concept, but if you're going to do something with it, then DO SOMETHING WITH IT, don't just make up numbers, write an article based on them, and pretend they have any meaning whatsoever. Why does a season add ten times the mileage of a game missed to injury? Why do carries and receptions each add the same amount of miles? Have you tested either of those hypotheses? Have you done anything with any of it other than simply assign an arbitrary number and pat yourself on the back for your cleverness?

 

[Couch Potato]

Fantasy players are so intent on gobbling up articles in an effort to gain some sort of advantage, it seems some have lost the ability to just have fun with something. There's no need to attack this article. It was written for fun and not to be used as real strategy -- at least that's how I interpreted it -- so I'd just relax and have a laugh with it and not worry about picking it apart.

I thought it was cute and harmless.

Maybe we need nicknames. Ladainian "Mercedes" Tomlinson and Cedric "Hyundai" Benson?

 

[Lash]

and here i thought Grant was a rookie last year

article has him at 22K mileage or 11K mileage per year in the league

or am i missing something, he wasn't injured i don't think

he was just 3rd in line so shouldn't have picked up the 1000mile penalties

 

[AB in DC]

Fantasy players are so intent on gobbling up articles in an effort to gain some sort of advantage, it seems some have lost the ability to just have fun with something. There's no need to attack this article. It was written for fun and not to be used as real strategy -- at least that's how I interpreted it -- so I'd just relax and have a laugh with it and not worry about picking it apart.I thought it was cute and harmless.

 

[Andy Herron]

Fantasy players are so intent on gobbling up articles in an effort to gain some sort of advantage, it seems some have lost the ability to just have fun with something. There's no need to attack this article. It was written for fun and not to be used as real strategy -- at least that's how I interpreted it -- so I'd just relax and have a laugh with it and not worry about picking it apart.I thought it was cute and harmless.

X 2.And thanks for recognizing it for what it is.All I said initially was that it was "interesting," not gospel.

 

[Englishteacher]

I, for one, think there's a lot you can gain from this article. It gives you a numerical way of visualizing wear and tear. It's far from perfect but it overall I found it helpful.

The flaws are fairly obvious. For instance, where does an injury that occurs at the end of a season fit in as far as "mileage accrued due to missed games." Kevin Jones tore his ACL at the end of the year, Ronnie Brown at the beginning. Same injury that increases "mileage" but because one occurred at the beginning of the season then those "miles" don't count. Maybe a different designation should be given. Perhaps assigning 25K miles for an ACL, 20K for a Lis Franc, etc. would work out better.

Then there are some purely sill things in there. For instance, this section:

Tip: Check the manufacturer: In other words, the college they came from. Look at Brown's average. The former Auburn running back can't keep going at that pace, especially when you look at former Auburn backs Rudi Johnson (15,530 miles per year) and Carnell Williams (17,036). It doesn't stop there. Kenny Irons couldn't even get through an exhibition game, and we all remember what happened to Bo Jackson's hip. Former Miami Hurricanes (McGahee, Gore, Portis) have leg injury issues. The Minnesota Golden Gophers, meanwhile, seems to have it right. Barber and Maroney seem to be fairly durable, or at the very least, properly driven.

Interesting. If you take it for what it is, useful but not perfect, it's a pretty good tool I think.