Auction advice (1 Viewer)

[dawrecker]

This is my first year in an auction league that has been around for a few years. The rosters are pretty deep as we draft 20 players including starting 2 QB's, 3Rb's and 4Wr's (8 BN, 1 TE, 1K, 1Def as well) with a $200 salary cap. The scoring makes the positions a little more even as well as we give 6pts per QB TD and 1PPR for WR's. Needless to say the after putting all of the attributes into the DD it says the top RB's like LT, Gore, Jackson etc are worth about $56-50. Talking with league members from last year the top players like LJ went for about 70ish which is what you would expect in a standard draft, so everyone in the league isn't making quite the adjustment they "should". My question is can I win by ignoring these overvalued guys at the onset and load up on a ton of middle tier guys who should be undervalued since everyone starts running out of money, or do I need to also overspend for the studs, because "you can't win without studs" theory? I would love to hear anyone's insight, thanks!

 

[CalBear]

This is my first year in an auction league that has been around for a few years. The rosters are pretty deep as we draft 20 players including starting 2 QB's, 3Rb's and 4Wr's (8 BN, 1 TE, 1K, 1Def as well) with a $200 salary cap. The scoring makes the positions a little more even as well as we give 6pts per QB TD and 1PPR for WR's. Needless to say the after putting all of the attributes into the DD it says the top RB's like LT, Gore, Jackson etc are worth about $56-50. Talking with league members from last year the top players like LJ went for about 70ish which is what you would expect in a standard draft, so everyone in the league isn't making quite the adjustment they "should". My question is can I win by ignoring these overvalued guys at the onset and load up on a ton of middle tier guys who should be undervalued since everyone starts running out of money, or do I need to also overspend for the studs, because "you can't win without studs" theory? I would love to hear anyone's insight, thanks!

The DD is a great tool for auctions, but make sure you're understanding the numbers it's giving you. What baseline are you using? Changing the baselines can radically alter the values it's spitting out.If you're using Dodd's projections and starting 3 RBs, I have to believe that LT is worth more than $56. He has a big VBD advantage over the #2 RB and an even bigger advantage over the #3 RB; the top QBs and WRs don't have those kinds of gaps, and really what you're paying for in an auction is VBD gaps. But VBD comes from the baseline; you can probably start with Maurile's Auction Method if you're not already using that.

 

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

This is my first year in an auction league that has been around for a few years. The rosters are pretty deep as we draft 20 players including starting 2 QB's, 3Rb's and 4Wr's (8 BN, 1 TE, 1K, 1Def as well) with a $200 salary cap. The scoring makes the positions a little more even as well as we give 6pts per QB TD and 1PPR for WR's. Needless to say the after putting all of the attributes into the DD it says the top RB's like LT, Gore, Jackson etc are worth about $56-50. Talking with league members from last year the top players like LJ went for about 70ish which is what you would expect in a standard draft, so everyone in the league isn't making quite the adjustment they "should". My question is can I win by ignoring these overvalued guys at the onset and load up on a ton of middle tier guys who should be undervalued since everyone starts running out of money, or do I need to also overspend for the studs, because "you can't win without studs" theory? I would love to hear anyone's insight, thanks!

I have been involved with many auction leagues and have commished one. The answer to your question is not a solid yes/no but it is to a degree. Let me explain - in my shark league everyone knows approximately how much a player can cost and therefore make it very hard to land players below their value. Last year for example LT went for over 1/2 of a teams salary but the other owners made sure that the LT team would not be able to afford many other quality players - always pricing them a little of of his reach. This is how is has always been in this league because all the owners are fantasy fanatics.The other way to think about this issue is if you can get some quality players cheap then by all means get LT and later in the draft pick some players whose value is far greater than their price.Example: Thomas Jones for $5.

 

[pizzatyme]

Where can one get T. Jones for $5 in a league setup like this? I get the point, I just don't want the OP to think they will get RB2 ADPs @ $5 going into a draft.

 

[Flying Spaghetti Monster]

Where can one get T. Jones for $5 in a league setup like this? I get the point, I just don't want the OP to think they will get RB2 ADPs @ $5 going into a draft.

We drafted right after the draft the year Benson was drafted by the bears and everyone was down on TJ.I agree that this was a steal and I think that team won the title.(Bad example tho)

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Where can one get T. Jones for $5 in a league setup like this? I get the point, I just don't want the OP to think they will get RB2 ADPs @ $5 going into a draft.

Just completed an auction (14 teams, $260 cap, start 2 RBs and 4 WRs). LT went for $110. However there were a few RB bargains in the end game. Kevin Jones, Lamont Jordan and Foster all slipped to the end game and went for between $8 and $14. It is not that the draft involved guppies at all, quite the contrary. It is simply that a draft is a dynamic event. I normally would have been a big player in the end game with $$ left to roster all 3 of these guys, but I didn't this year because I spent ~ $70 each on Parker and Henry and also paid > $30 for a couple of top tier WRs (a cut below Smith, Harrison and Chad that went for mid $50's). The LT owner in this draft also did not control the board at the end game so he was unable to roster these bargains.Use of the DD as anything more than a "loose guide" in a real live auction would have left you without any top tier talent in this past draft. Need to understand the "market" as it exists in that unique point in time and adjust as best that you can.

 

[harryhood]

The dominator is definately a great way to see your tiers and where in the market is the value. LT and SJAX went for the same price in our league so you have to understand that an auction is very dynamic. You have to be able to change with every dollar spent.

 

[BigRed]

My question is can I win by ignoring these overvalued guys at the onset and load up on a ton of middle tier guys who should be undervalued since everyone starts running out of money, or do I need to also overspend for the studs, because "you can't win without studs" theory? I would love to hear anyone's insight, thanks!

There is no "right" answer to this. People have tried both strats and both had mixed results.