Auction draft strategies (1 Viewer)

[YoungDro]

What are you guys auction draft strategies this season? Feel free to drop draft strategies which have paid off well, the beauty of auction is the freedom of team build styles it allows me

In a half PPR start 2 RB 2 WR 1 flex I'm planning more of a zero or hero rb approach this season but will pivot to a hyperfragile RB approach if the prices and players are right.

I looking to implement a studs and duds approach for my first time which would be based around getting Jefferson and Chase. If I'm able to get them within my price range the question then becomes to go full zero rb or to take more of a hero rb approach.

The zero rb move would be to grab Kelce or Pitts and then try to get a high end flex player or elite QB (up to in the 20$ range)

Hero rb would consist of aiming for a Swift, Kamara type.

Looking for thoughts on these build ideas as well as what you are planning in your leagues

 

[daveR]

It depends a lot on your league mates. If they're new to auctions, there will be good value later in the draft. Be patient. This year, I see a lot of flyer types and a ton of qb options.

 

[moleculo]

I just finished my first-ever auction draft. I read all of the FBG articles leading up to it and did a bunch of yahoo mocks to get a feel for how things go.

Draft dominator didn't work out for me so I had to keep track of everything the old-fashioned way - pen and paper. fortunately, I had a budget in my head that was easy to track and stick to. I used the "par" scoring method, keeping track of dollars over or under my allocation.

My budget guidelines:

• top two players: $100, split between a RB and a WR. This could be $50/$50, $60/$40, etc, but my top two guys should be ~$100.
• RB2 and WR2: $20 ea
• flex - RB or RB: $15 ea
• QB1 and TE1: $15 ea
• RB3, WR3: $5 ea
• $1 for the remaining (5 players, including K & D)

Doing it like this, I could keep a running tally of over/under budget and I had a general framework of what I wanted to spend for each roster spot. Easy enough to keep track of on the fly, even after a few barley sodas. The above distribution should get you 2 guys normally valued as 1st/early 2nd rounders, a top 3 TE, a top 5 QB.

Headed in, I notice that consensus is that there is a pretty big dropoff after the Kupp, then Jefferson/Chase. I won't draft Adams (anti-raider bias), and npone of the remaining WRs appraise for more than $40. Put differently, there aren't WR's valued at $50. There are a few over and a few under, so either grab a stud WR or a stud RB @ $60 and the opposite should be $40.

I ended up getting Kupp for $61 and then Mixon for $46. Obviously, that put me at $7 over par, so another position somewhere else was going to have to eat it. O overspent a little on TE (Pitts @ $18), under @ QB (Murray for $12), WR2 was a bit over (Sutton for $23 - homer pick), and totally missed the tier I wanted for RB2 and settled for Rhamondre Stevenson for $7 as my RB2 :( I ended up having a bit more money than I wanted to go into the late stages. I wish I had pulled the trigger on one of the RB's in the $20 stages - I missed the boat there. You have to stay on your toes because there is a small window of RB's in the $15-%20 range...a heck of a lot more WR's at that spot.

 

[grateful zed]

there is a recent auction thread with great info, if someone wants to find it.

 

[Scoresman]

Biggest asset is history of league drafts.

I put together the last 5 years worth of my league's drafts and got average amounts per position and rank. For example, on average over the last 5 drafts, the number 1 RB has gone for $62.

For coming up with values for this year, I use VBD principles to come up with value points over replacement player based on my projections, add them up and divide into the total amount of auction dollars. This gives you the ratio to multiply each player's VPs by to get their budgeted dollar amount. I put each player's budget next to the average dollar amount that ranked player has gone for in our drafts, and that gives me a pretty good picture of how the draft is going to go. In other words, I am seeing what each player should go for based on VBD against what they are likely to go for based on my league's draft tendencies.

What I've learned is that over the years, our league does not put enough value on QBs and RBs, instead overvaluing WRs and TEs. I should be able to get JT well below what my budget says I should pay for him. I may try to draft around that. After JT, there isn't much anticipated RB value until RB 15 or so. It's also telling me that if I dont get any of the top 3 WRs at value, wait until WR 15-25 where there should be a ton of value. That lines up perfectly with my WR strategy overall.

 

[Scoresman]

What are you guys auction draft strategies this season? Feel free to drop draft strategies which have paid off well, the beauty of auction is the freedom of team build styles it allows me

In a half PPR start 2 RB 2 WR 1 flex I'm planning more of a zero or hero rb approach this season but will pivot to a hyperfragile RB approach if the prices and players are right.

I looking to implement a studs and duds approach for my first time which would be based around getting Jefferson and Chase. If I'm able to get them within my price range the question then becomes to go full zero rb or to take more of a hero rb approach.

The zero rb move would be to grab Kelce or Pitts and then try to get a high end flex player or elite QB (up to in the 20$ range)

Hero rb would consist of aiming for a Swift, Kamara type.

Looking for thoughts on these build ideas as well as what you are planning in your leagues

Someone on twitter did a study on a studs and duds approach and the conclusion was that it was inferior to an approach where you try to get a more balanced roster, ie: get a 1st round pick, a second round pick, etc. I'd link it but searching twitter sucks.

 

[BoltBacker]

I looking to implement a studs and duds approach for my first time which would be based around getting Jefferson and Chase.

If that's your approach I would suggest nominating some of your "duds" slightly above the minimum very early for a few reasons.

- First, a bunch of guys in the auction simply don't bid early because they want to keep the money as "power" later in the auction so you can slip lesser players by them. Other guys turn up their nose at lesser players and think of them as minimum players just below what they would be willing to bid anything above the minimum.

- Second, you need to know whether you can acquire dud players at dud prices otherwise your plan won't work and you will need to adjust on the fly anyway. Better to know as early as possible in the auction. If you value your target backup QB as a $2 player and there is a "bidding war" all the way up to $5.... that's fine you just adjust. Finding out which roster spots you need to spend more/less on can end up being more valuable than who you end up with as your backup QB.

- Third, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. If your studs get nominated early they will go high and that is largely out of your control. Don't resist the wave, ride the wave in an auction. If you want stud RB's don't be married to one or two guys because another opponent may be married to that guy as well and you don't want to be the guy that "won" the player but "lost" the auction because you overspent( even in the stud/dud strategy you started with ) on ONE SPECIFIC player. You can overpay a little, but you can't win an absurd bidding war unless your opponent vastly overpays and loses his auction acquiring that one specific player.

- Fourth, imo part of the rush of an auction is getting your guy at below what you believe should be the market rate. Early in the auction that is easier to do with dud players than anyone else. Picking up the sleepers at dud prices early is actually what gives you the power to slightly overpay for your stud players. Like any other FF format you will end up with a lot more "duds" whether they are low bids or drafted late so identifying the "duds" good enough to contribute is the key. A lot of titles are won because of a ridiculous game by a stud player, but sometimes people forget that you wouldn't have gotten to that title game in the first place if those "dud" QB and/or TE wouldn't have played your opponents to a draw so many times during the season.

Auctions are great. In my experience ADP and auction value charts are completely different beasts. In the 10th round I have a fairly solid idea who is there and who I like. For $10 in the middle of an auction you really have almost no idea. As long as you go into the auction knowing that you should have a great time.

 

[Scoresman]

On nominations, everyone always say nominate guys you dont want which is good most of the time.

But I'd say early on, if you have one of the first handful of nominations, nominate a guy you do want. Especially if it's a guy you can see yourself building your team around. Determining whether or not you get your guy early will lay out your strategy sooner rather than later. It's also good to nominate a guy you want early because people tend to be hesitant early on.

A good example is Kelce. Kelce is a guy where if you like him, it changes your strategy significantly whether or not you get him. If you're waiting forever for him to get nominated and letting other potential guys go, you may be in a bind if Kelce eventually goes way higher than you budgeted. You cant go back in time and get other good players that have already gone. For players like this, who I might be building a team around, I like to nominate them early.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

On nominations, everyone always say nominate guys you dont want which is good most of the time.

But I'd say early on, if you have one of the first handful of nominations, nominate a guy you do want. Especially if it's a guy you can see yourself building your team around. Determining whether or not you get your guy early will lay out your strategy sooner rather than later. It's also good to nominate a guy you want early because people tend to be hesitant early on.

A good example is Kelce. Kelce is a guy where if you like him, it changes your strategy significantly whether or not you get him. If you're waiting forever for him to get nominated and letting other potential guys go, you may be in a bind if Kelce eventually goes way higher than you budgeted. You cant go back in time and get other good players that have already gone. For players like this, who I might be building a team around, I like to nominate them early.

Great advice!

 

[Payne]

Historically the first top tier RB nominated in my auction will go below value. I have pivoted from throwing a guy I don't want out early to a guy I do want.
Sometimes that player can be had for a good price.

 

[YoungDro]

My league is a seasoned group of auction drafters but they pretty boring with nominations early on and mainly just nominate the first and second round elites. Since everyone else is nominating studs anyways I pretty much only do it when I want to prevent an end of tier bidding war and as @Scoresman said to nominate a guy, ie Kelce whose price could play a major role in how you strategize for your draft.

A good way to bleed other owners money early on is to nominate players who are projected to sell high but then go for significantly cheaper in their actual average price. By nominating these guys early on you force a potential overpay on lower end talent on guys you don't want. For example, Kittle is projected to go for 22 on yahoo but his actual average price is 12. This represents a price differential of 10$ so by nominating him early when everyone is flush with cash you can possibly force an overpay somewhere in the neighborhood of around 10$. I credit this idea to a poster who guys by FFC on another FF forum which I won't name out of respect for FootballGuys. I used this idea in the past to nominate hyped players but I hadn't specifically analyzed the differences in the projected price and average to guide those nominations. All of these numbers to target these high projected vs average price differentials are available on yahoo/espn, etc.


To respond to some other posters I've looked back at previous draft years to do my homework and hunt for patterns in team builds, tendencies and spending habits, how the winners won, how they drafted well, etc. Some trends I've noticed in my league are:

-QBs go for cheap. I'm building in the idea of hopefully getting a stud dual threat for under market value. For example Josh Allen and the dual threats went for under 15$ last year.
-FIrst half of the first round high end RBs will generally be 60+. CMC went in the 80s. These high prices are why I'm considering a zero rb build
-Elite WRs (the tier 1 guys) typically don't reach the 60s. BUT zero rb seems to be more popular this year so we’ll see if there ends up being competition for the high end WR1s.
@moleculo I think Pitts for 18 is a fine price, I know it exceeds the value you had allocated for TE but that isn't an overpay by any means
Some items that are still on my auction prep to do list that I'd recommend others to do:
-Analyze yours, and other teams' track records of hitting on 1$ and other cheap players. People generally overestimate their abilities to hit on these guys
-Look at your league's nomination trends. Do they go studs early? When do sleepers get nominated? How can you use these trends to exploit their habits?
-Develop a specific gameplan for how you will approach the draft. Make lots of plans determining what you will do if A or B or C happens. Being flexible and having many plans allows for you to build a more optimum team without having to force a non-optimal strategy.

 

[Amused to Death]

If there's a mid-tier or lottery ticket player I want to target, I'll nominate them in the first round because most people aren't going to bid up those players. They want the money to go after the higher profile players. I found if I wait till late in the auction, everyone with some cap space left will also be in on those same players and drive the price up.

 

[Scoresman]

My league is a seasoned group of auction drafters but they pretty boring with nominations early on and mainly just nominate the first and second round elites. Since everyone else is nominating studs anyways I pretty much only do it when I want to prevent an end of tier bidding war and as @Scoresman said to nominate a guy, ie Kelce whose price could play a major role in how you strategize for your draft.

A good way to bleed other owners money early on is to nominate players who are projected to sell high but then go for significantly cheaper in their actual average price. By nominating these guys early on you force a potential overpay on lower end talent on guys you don't want. For example, Kittle is projected to go for 22 on yahoo but his actual average price is 12. This represents a price differential of 10$ so by nominating him early when everyone is flush with cash you can possibly force an overpay somewhere in the neighborhood of around 10$. I credit this idea to a poster who guys by FFC on another FF forum which I won't name out of respect for FootballGuys. I used this idea in the past to nominate hyped players but I hadn't specifically analyzed the differences in the projected price and average to guide those nominations. All of these numbers to target these high projected vs average price differentials are available on yahoo/espn, etc.


To respond to some other posters I've looked back at previous draft years to do my homework and hunt for patterns in team builds, tendencies and spending habits, how the winners won, how they drafted well, etc. Some trends I've noticed in my league are:

-QBs go for cheap. I'm building in the idea of hopefully getting a stud dual threat for under market value. For example Josh Allen and the dual threats went for under 15$ last year.
-FIrst half of the first round high end RBs will generally be 60+. CMC went in the 80s. These high prices are why I'm considering a zero rb build
-Elite WRs (the tier 1 guys) typically don't reach the 60s. BUT zero rb seems to be more popular this year so we’ll see if there ends up being competition for the high end WR1s.
@moleculo I think Pitts for 18 is a fine price, I know it exceeds the value you had allocated for TE but that isn't an overpay by any means
Some items that are still on my auction prep to do list that I'd recommend others to do:
-Analyze yours, and other teams' track records of hitting on 1$ and other cheap players. People generally overestimate their abilities to hit on these guys
-Look at your league's nomination trends. Do they go studs early? When do sleepers get nominated? How can you use these trends to exploit their habits?
-Develop a specific gameplan for how you will approach the draft. Make lots of plans determining what you will do if A or B or C happens. Being flexible and having many plans allows for you to build a more optimum team without having to force a non-optimal strategy.

In regards to the bolded, I'm not sure I agree that it will play out this way all the time. If you nominate Kittle early for example, he may end up going for the average of $12 because owners may feel like they can just wait since all the other elite TEs are still available. Especially with seasoned auction drafters, just because people are flush with cash doesn't mean players will always go for more money just by being nominated early. You can still use this strategy, but I wouldn't use it for a guy I knew I didn't want, because if he did end up being a bargain, I'd like to be able to take advantage and grab him. Otherwise you're giving someone else a bargain.

I'd try this strategy if it was a guy you definitely want whose at the lower end of the top player tiers. Say I want to build a team around Najee. I'm definitely throwing him out early, before all other RBs if possible in hopes that people will be saving their money for the other top RBs. Also has the benefit of determining if I will actually get him and be able to go with the strategy of building around him.

I think my bottom line is that you should nominate guys you do want early so that you can work out which direction your roster is going to go as early as possible and take advantage of possible early draft hesitation. Otherwise just nominate guys you know you don't want to bleed other team's cap.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Some good info here that I won't rehash (but knowing your league and how they draft/prefer to build their teams is huge IMO).

One thing I will add is that I feel tiers are more important in auction than in snake. The more granular the better, but don't get too lost in the weeds. You want it so you can go, alright this tier of RBs are guys I want to spend between 40-50% on etc etc. I find it easier to prevent panic/overspending this way.

 

[Scoresman]

Some good info here that I won't rehash (but knowing your league and how they draft/prefer to build their teams is huge IMO).

One thing I will add is that I feel tiers are more important in auction than in snake. The more granular the better, but don't get too lost in the weeds. You want it so you can go, alright this tier of RBs are guys I want to spend between 40-50% on etc etc. I find it easier to prevent panic/overspending this way.

Tiers are very important, especially the last player to get nominated in any given tier. You don't want this to be one of your target guys because they will almost always go for a premium.

If you're looking for someone to nominate and its a guy you dont want, always nominate the last player in a tier.

 

[YoungDro]

Figured I'd update this with my latest build plan and see what others think.

Alvin Kamara and his potential suspension, which we now know to be less likely to occur in 2022, offer a chance to get a first round player at second round ADP. If I can get him in the low to mid 40s I'm going to make a hero rb team built around him and then Justin Jefferson, Chase and Pitts, with left over money going to chasing zero rb candidates and dollar bin breakout WRs, of which I have many I like. If any of those guys go cheap enough I"m also planning on targeting a nice dual threat QB with left over money.

I've learned that in auction it is better to chase high end talent since most teams do not end up starting most of the guys that draft and the amount of roster churning among nearly every owner will be high

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The zero rb move would be to grab Kelce ...

Matt DiSorbo
@datavizuals
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