Auction draft strats 08 (1 Viewer)

[BigRed]

Just wondering what auction drafters are thinking on this esp for this year (IMO strats should vary year/year some depending on the circumstances). No definitive right or wrong of course, but this year I'm thinking might be a particularly good year to be patient as it seems to me that there is more depth and fewer surer things this year. Yes or no and why? Any particular positional or specific examples/thoughts?

 

[AnonymousBob]

My general style is to blow my load on LT. Then fill in the rest with some bargain guys. I think there is always the perception of this being a good year to wait but if you could grab LT, ADP, Moss, Brady you should take them at a premium.

I won my league last year but it ended up costing me $$$ in this year's draft so I'm being forced to wait for some value plays. Still, if I had the cash I really think this is a great year to take the elite players.

 

[Buckfast]

I was just discussing this with one of my fellow league members. We noted how the top 3 finishers in our league last year all had very different strategies, and all turned out to succeed.

The first place finisher was the patient one, who passed on overpaying for many of the proven studs and collected a large number of what would typically be late 2nd-3rd round selections. He didn't have a single consensus first round pick on his entire roster. (Of course, he greatly benefited by grabbing Brady as one of his 2nd tier talents).

The second place finisher spent practically all of his money on his first two selections (Tomlinson and Manning) and then filled in with bargains the rest of the way. He struggled early due to a lack of depth at WR and RB, but was able to turn it around by trading away a few of his bargain selections that panned out nicely (Favre and a TE, I think).

The third place finisher went the route of spending a lot of money on RBs and looking for bargain QBs and WRs. Despite his RB selections not panning out as he had hoped (Parker and T. Henry), he managed to pick up some great bargains later in the draft (Romo, Winslow, and Moss).

Basically, I thought it was interesting to see 3 teams take 3 entirely different strategies and yet all finish at the top of the league. The only common denominator was that each team found a couple of undervalued players at a discount later in the draft that had breakout years. That really seems to be the key to any auction, regardless of what strategy you employ.

I'm still undecided what strategy I am going to take going into this draft. I know that I am likely going to abandon my typical RB-heavy drafting strategy with the further expansion of the RBBC, and may try to lock up 2 stud receivers. If I can get a stud RB and two stud WRs, I feel like I could find some nice bargains to fill out the rest of the positions. Alternatively, you could try to get 2 RBs that get a large majority of the carries and then a stud WR, and fill the rest in with bargains. I am unsure about this year, but those are my thoughts as of now.

 

[Sweat Hog]

RB heavy seems to kill me which is why last year I went with a top 5 player at each position(QB/RB/WR) and I won it all. We start 2 QB's which definitely plays into strategy. I had Romo and P. Manning and it was great never having to sweat that position. I never had a really off week going with this strategy and will try it again this year. Westbrook at RB and T.O at WR. The rest were fill-ins that I had decent success with. I just hate struggling at one position because I went so heavy at another.

 

[Andy Herron]

Just let the draft come to you, don't "chase it."

If your boards are right, you'll know where the value is. Too many people lose by out-thinking themselves.

Relax, take deep breaths (oxygen to the brain always helps), and by no means panic or get too anxious.

It's not rocket science.

 

[EBF]

I'll have some thoughts on this after I demolish the competition in Ultimate Survivor League 12 draft on August 2nd.

I definitely have a lot to say about auction drafting and I've been pretty successful in the format.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

My first inclination is to always wait and get a roster full of top 20 guys.

Unfortunately, I almost always get too MUCH depth with this route and while my roster is the deepest in the league, my weekly scores don't fetch me wins.

This year I am making a conscious effort to grab 1 stud RB and 2 stud WRs at a premium before bargain hunting.

 

[footballman_696969]

Just let the draft come to you, don't "chase it."If your boards are right, you'll know where the value is. Too many people lose by out-thinking themselves.

Bid on a guy if you see him going for less than you think he is valued at. I also find that you can find a lot of value later on in the auction when many teams have exhausted a large portion of their cap.Edit to add: I also like to give myself a baseline for how much cash to spend on each position.

 

[Andy Herron]

Just let the draft come to you, don't "chase it."

If your boards are right, you'll know where the value is. Too many people lose by out-thinking themselves.

Bid on a guy if you see him going for less than you think he is valued at. I also find that you can find a lot of value later on in the auction when many teams have exhausted a large portion of their cap.

Edit to add: I also like to give myself a baseline for how much cash to spend on each position.

Another good point.And always construct what I call a "dollar menu," just like fast food, yes. For every position. Players, not hamburgers and fries.

This is where the real value lies. Works every time, trust me, or I wouldn't have continued to utilize it.

 

[BigRed]

RB heavy seems to kill me

I don't doubt you have plenty of company. I have a habit of trying to get one of the very top RBs and then still about a top 10 guy as RB2. Sounds great, but it leaves you hurting elsewhere and typically at least 1 RB bombs out. It's a hard strat to resist but I hope to this year....

I just hate struggling at one position because I went so heavy at another.

Me too, but basically something's gotta give - eg you go for LT, you're probably not starting Gates and Brady and Moss too - or if you manage something like that, the rest of the team probably sucks. Course you could tell yourself you won't go for the very top guys - but again that's easier said than done -

Just let the draft come to you, don't "chase it."If your boards are right, you'll know where the value is. Too many people lose by out-thinking themselves.Relax, take deep breaths (oxygen to the brain always helps), and by no means panic or get too anxious.

Thank you yoda. It is easy to get caught up in it and not stick to your guns.

My first inclination is to always wait and get a roster full of top 20 guys.Unfortunately, I almost always get too MUCH depth with this route and while my roster is the deepest in the league, my weekly scores don't fetch me wins.This year I am making a conscious effort to grab 1 stud RB and 2 stud WRs at a premium before bargain hunting.

Yeah - I think the key is somewhere between your top 20 thing and over-doing it for the "studs" - lot easier said than done of course. I have found that at diff times when I planned for depth thinking "hey if this guys busts or gets hurt I have this guy" they end up similar and I'm torn every week on which one to friggin start. It's amazing how frustrating this stupid little game can get, yet still be something you actually want to do. It's like golf that way.

Bid on a guy if you see him going for less than you think he is valued at.

...IF you are definitely fine w/the guy on your team. Just last year I ended up w/someone who I wasn't wild about but the last bid was about $5 cheaper than he should be going, so I upped it a buck figuring it would get a few more bids...oops. So I got a "deal"......on a player I didn't really want. Turned out OK, but point being it's dangerous to bid on a guy you don't really want.Re baseline of $ at each position, I have a rough idea but it's only that and I won't hesitate to toss it out the window during the draft if I feel it's worth it to get so-and-so.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I never really liked the spend big on superstars strategy. It seems like you're chasing career years when you do that and unless they repeat or come close you didn't get a great deal. I could see paying a lot for established stars like an LT or Moss or maybe even a Peyton Manning but not for anyone else.

To me every season it seems like the prices are top heavy. The top 3-4 guys at each position go for way more than anyone lower so I usually stay away from them. If I do that I'm pretty sure that I can build a well-rounded team from everybody else.

The way I see it is if I have to settle for a player who could be a top 5-10 player at a position (and there's no reason why they couldn't be higher than that) I can definitely live with that.

Even with what I said about Manning I never really spend that much on a qb. You just don't have to.

 

[renesauz]

I'll have some thoughts on this after I demolish the competition in Ultimate Survivor League 12 draft on August 2nd. I definitely have a lot to say about auction drafting and I've been pretty successful in the format.

Why wait? After all, if your strategy is the same for a best ball or survivor league as it is for a normal league, then you're going to be getting killed in the one you don't "dominate"!

 

[greyone]

Keep track of the winning bids.

On your cheetsheet keep a column open to enter winning bids.**HELPED ME TREMENDOUSLY** Tracking the bids allows you to see whether you are overpaying, underpaying, getting value or just the right amount. This strategy works great for me in basketball auctions.

I might even enter last seasons winning bids into a column for perspective.

Only spend BIG $$$ on legit concrete producers. Not the next possible breakout player. Look at THenry last season people thought he was a sure thing....wrong. LT is legit, spending money on him is absolutely warranted.

I would spend BIG $ on one or two ROCK SOLID PRODUCERS. Then bargain your way through the auction. Can't live without bargains.

Jump at value. Maybe taking a player you weren't planning on because of the great price break.

Breakout players are great stories and ego boosters...so chancing at one or two legit players like Bmarshall is a decent semi-gamble. Everybody on FBG basically was on BMarsh's jock. Henry i didn't want a part of.

 

[massraider]

http://www41.myfantasyleague.com/2008/home/64557

That's an initial auction contract league, with IDP. Contracts have yet to be assigned.

A lot of interesting teams, people definitely built their teams in different ways.

The only thing I will say that I definitely do is try and stay fluid, flexible. I think in a draft, you can lock in on your targets, and maybe reach a bit for them, and it isn't the end of the world. But in an auction, if there's a sleeper you like, and he gets nominated early, you can really overpay.

Towards the middle of the draft, I will try and not let too many steals go by, I don't drop out of an auction unless I feel a player is close to his max value.

As teams take shape, this is where I think good auction owners separate themselves. At that point, you need to closely track every team, and see what they are looking for. Nominating players late in the auction is the most important part. If I am eyeballing Demetrius Williams at the end, I want to make sure any other team either can't outbid me, or has a bunch of WRs. It's not just nominating guys you want, but guys that will ensure you can get the guy you REALLY want.

I never wind up getting too many of my targets early, but late I usually wind up with guys I really like.

 

[GoRaiders]

One main strategy I do is to not get stuck on one player (expect for the top 1-2 at each position), but rather look at a tier of players. You don't want to wait for a certain guy you like, because he may be the last one in that tier of players, which usually means you will overpay quite a bit for him. Every year when the draft is over you can go back and see the first player taken in a tier goes for a lot less than he should compared to what other players ended up going for. That being said, I do exclude players from the tier I am looking at.

Another big one I learned the hard way last year - Have a strategy and stick to it. And most importantly, if you have to change strategies during the draft, have a backup plan that makes sense with how the draft is evolving. Which means you may have to go to a stud WR strategy, instead of your usual stud RB strategy.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Just let the draft come to you, don't "chase it."

If your boards are right, you'll know where the value is. Too many people lose by out-thinking themselves.

Bid on a guy if you see him going for less than you think he is valued at. I also find that you can find a lot of value later on in the auction when many teams have exhausted a large portion of their cap.

Edit to add: I also like to give myself a baseline for how much cash to spend on each position.

I've also had some success in the format. In my only serious money league ($500 entry = real auction funds), I have 3 titles in 7 years. Only 4 teams qualify for the playoffs and I've qualified 6 out of 7 years. I try to make this point every year in a similar auction strategy thread here -- sometimes I elucidate it better, sometimes I get in dumb arguments -- but I disagree with the above... strongly. Hopefully EBF agrees and we can have a dumb argument. In a serpentine draft you have to let the players come to you. You have no choice. You may really love Peterson, but draft 9th and have no chance at him. In an auction you have a chance at everyone and need to focus on the premium combination of who you want and can afford from your projections. Target your roster from projections and you get the team you deserve based on what you think, not on how things came to you. It's the true test of how good you are at fantasy football prophesying. Letting it come to you is the easy way out of building a roster and it doesn't take advantage of the key benefit of auctioning, you can have whoever you want within reason. You are freed from one pick per round limitations and letting players come to you. In an auction you go after them, they don't come to you.

I like the example of the person who won last year with a bunch of names that were 2nd and 3rd rounders in regular drafts, but had no 1st round talent. Sometimes that works. I've won with a similar approach. I like it this year because of the WRs. I perceive a big drop off after 20 or so WRs this year. My IDP Ultimate Survivor is just past that point right now. Check out who's been drafted as of now, -- and look at who is available. Most of us have one or two of those wides. Magaw has three. I could only get two because it's a snake draft. In an auction I win three of them and a really good fourth this year. It will cost me depth and maybe I won't have a perceived first rounder, but I feel confident with some cheap cheap RBs and see a big opportunity at WR here. I want the firepower of starting three WRs who I could never get in a normal draft.

My league has a roster size of 26. I'd guess I will be able to name 17+ players I win before the bidding starts. You bet I get stuck on the players I want. That's what it's all about.

 

[twistd]

Just wondering what auction drafters are thinking on this esp for this year (IMO strats should vary year/year some depending on the circumstances). No definitive right or wrong of course, but this year I'm thinking might be a particularly good year to be patient as it seems to me that there is more depth and fewer surer things this year. Yes or no and why? Any particular positional or specific examples/thoughts?

I tend to avoid the top players. I focus on getting value across the board. The problem with blowing your load on stud players is that you are really dependent on them. If anyone under-performs, or gets hurt, your season is over. An example of how I try to draft WRs, I try to get a top 10 WR, but then I tier the players. I try to get a at least one or two in each of the second and third tiers. I load the bottom of my roster with upside guys. Last year our #1 WR was Donald Driver. Obviously he was weak, but we also picked Edwards. We had Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Brandon Marshall, and Kevin Curtis. I was disappointed with Evans and Moss, but they were good values and worth the risk. Marshall and Edwards carried the team. I think the key is looking for value amongst the top players, and using the extra money you have from not over-spending on the studs to load the bottom of your roster with upside guys who could break out.

 

[BigRed]

That being said, I don't think MT is LT2. But he is super strong and blisteringly fast.

So is TJ Duckett.Turner can turn on the jets, but he doesn't have that "darting" ability that Dunn and Norwood have IMO which is important on this team. I think he'll be at or near 1000, but barely if so. Receps will be not terrible but modest. RB3, sure...RB2? No thanks.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I've found the uber elite players are actually relatively undervalued. I think it's a waste of money to grab a top ten rb, qb, etc. The difference in production between a top ten guy and a top twenty guy is usually relatively minimal while the dollar difference is a lot bigger.

If I don't get a super stud I wait. And wait. And wait. The difference between Gore and Fred Taylor last year was about 2 ppg. While those 2 points can win you a few games, the $$$ difference between those guys was massive. You could've spent the dough to upgrade another spot.