Auction Value Modeling (2 Viewers)

[The Dude]

It’s been a while since I modeled auction values.  My question is how are you determining player values for like the top 12 at rb/wr when the spend on those players is usually disproportionately high?

I allocated the total spend on the top 12 rib from last year based on 2021 projections.  Sound reasonable?  It did come close to the prior year spends.  The top guy was over spent in the last two years.

 

[Payne]

Since it sounds like you have some historical data, use that. What did the top RB go for last year? The year before that? Assign that value to your top RB this year. 

Rinse and repeat.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I haven't played auction for years and this is a little old, but this kind of model is more or less the kind of think that I used when trying to set my original board.

Value Based Drafting for Auction Leagues | Fantasy Football Aid

 

[zed2283]

I haven't played auction for years and this is a little old, but this kind of model is more or less the kind of think that I used when trying to set my original board.

Value Based Drafting for Auction Leagues | Fantasy Football Aid

That's pretty interesting.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

before my start-up dynasty draft I looked at a lot of examples of this. And went into the draft super confident in those values. 

And then the draft started and literally all of it went out the window. Players were worth what people were willing to pay in the moment. Some went super cheap (I landed ARob for $26/500) and some ridiculously expensive (CMC went for $136/500). 

There wasn't much rhyme or reason to it. I was glad to have a guide to sort of know where to bow out on some players, but that didn't stop me from paying $128 for Mahomes.  

 

[The Dude]

Since it sounds like you have some historical data, use that. What did the top RB go for last year? The year before that? Assign that value to your top RB this year. 

Rinse and repeat.

I did this already.  And it’s insane how consistent spending is year over year.

 

[barackdhouse]

The values can swing pretty wildly based on all the parameters. Roster size being the most important. Historic data is huge. My big auction redraft that has been going for years is pretty consistent with the highest top 10 values. Certain owners have certain tendencies.

I like to mock out a few builds in a spreadsheet and come up with a range of values for a range of players that I like at certain roster spots. 

But there are lots of winning strategies.