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Award Predictions as of 12/17 (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
I didn't see a thread about MVP or Coach of the Year, or Rookie of the Year, so I figured I'd start one, since I have opinions on them.

MVP-Tom Brady, I really don't see any reason to choose anyone else. Brady is leading the league in both yards and TDs, on a top team. Frankly, I'd argue a vote for someone else, is just wanting to pick someone who isn't Brady.

Coach of the Year-Bill Belichick, I can see an argument for Kingsbury, as voters seem to like younger coaches who had a big record improvement from the previous season, that said, this was supposed to be the end of NE's run. Instead, they've circled the wagons(right in Buffalo's face) and entered the week as the #1 seed in the AFC. 

Offensive Player of the Year-Cooper Kupp, this award almost never goes to QB's anymore, since MVP basically became the best QB award(which is probably fair) Kupp is having a Jerry Rice season and is has become a dominant player week in and week out. WR's almost never win, but I don't see a better argument for anyone else. Shout out to Trent Williams who according to multiple outlets(PFF, Football Outsiders, ETR) is having the best season any OL has had on 15-20 years. That said, an OL will never win, even if they are most deserving. Jonathan Taylor will probably get votes, but it certainly won't be from me. Henry shouldn't have won it last year in my opinion either(Kelce and Adams were more deserving)

Defensive Player of the Year-Aaron Donald, people may be sick of voting for him, but he's the most dominant defender in the NFL, and is  already a 1st ballot HOF lock. He leads his position in sacks and is 2nd in tackles, despite constant double teams and occasional triples. I can see arguments for Myles Garrett, TJ Watt(just off sack totals, he wouldn't be my 1st pick on the Steelers, that would be Heyward) and Kevin Byard, but I won't make the case for any of them myself.

Offensive Rookie of the Year-Mac Jones, he's leading his team to a potential #1 seed, and while his counting numbers aren't great, he's 3rd in the NFL in completion percentage, and has a 97 passer rating. I could potentially see a case for Ja'Marr Chase, but he's been taking a backseat to Tee Higgins of late, and adjusted for situation, I'm not sure he's even been the best rookie WR(I'd argue for Waddle) 

Defensive Rookie of the Year-Micah Parsons, maybe the easiest award to pick. Parsons might already be the best LB in the NFL. He might also be among the best DE's if he played there full time. Still can't believe he fell as far as he did in the draft. He was easily the best defensive player in the draft in my eyes, and arguably the best LB prospect in years. 

Comeback Player of the Year-Joe Burrow, its not a great year for comeback players, so I'll go with a guy who was coming off an ACL tear, and has looked every bit like a guy who deserved to be picked #1, on a Bengals team that looks like they could be good for years to come, and could possibly win the AFC North. 

 

wlwiles

Footballguy
Pretty spot on for most of them, and I don't really see a lot changing between now and voting time.  Two months ago I'd have said that Comeback POY was Dak's to lose just because it was considered a more severe/gruesome injury than a "run of the mill" ACL tear...but IMO he's going to need to go on a tear these next 3-4 weeks and vie for a top seed to get back in the driver's seat for that one.

Could see Garrett as DPOY over Donald just because like you said, Donald is kind of expected to do this now, it's still impressive but it doesn't WOW people like it should because we take him for granted. 

Kupp for OPOY is the easiest pick imo but I wouldn't be surprised if Taylor steals some votes.

COY between Belicheck and Kliff, it may just come down to best record at the end

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
travdogg said:
Offensive Rookie of the Year-Mac Jones, he's leading his team to a potential #1 seed, and while his counting numbers aren't great, he's 3rd in the NFL in completion percentage, and has a 97 passer rating. I could potentially see a case for Ja'Marr Chase, but he's been taking a backseat to Tee Higgins of late, and adjusted for situation, I'm not sure he's even been the best rookie WR(I'd argue for Waddle) 
Najee not even worthy of a mention?

We all know how these things work so not surprised he’s not in the conversation, but the highest graded rookie by PFF is Penei Sewell at 91.0. First 5 games (switched to LT after preseason bc Decker was out first 6 weeks) he ranked 60th out of 65 T. Last 8 weeks, he’s the highest ranked OL in the NFL (95.0, 93.5 in pass pro.)

Has had notably excellent games v Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald. Mean,  nasty, and quick af. He’s the whole package and didn’t turn 21 until Week 5. Parsons is a terrific defender but Detroit is so lucky he fell to #7 He could be our Jackie Slater.

 

jtd13

Footballguy
MVP- Hard to argue with Brady. I would love to see LAR or ARI get hot and Stafford or Kyler win it, but as it stands Brady is the clear leader

COY - Brandon Staley (seems like a 1st or 2nd year coach with a fairly drastic record improvement often wins this)

OPOY - Kupp

DPOY - TJ Watt

OROY - Mac Jones. Chase, Najee and Waddle also deserve consideration, and I would love to see an OL win it like @BobbyLayne mentioned, but a rookie QB getting the 1 seed will usually get it. 

DROY - Parsons. Any other year Jaelen Phillips would have a strong case, but Parsons is a top 5 candidate for DPOY this season. 

Comeback Player - Probably Dak or Burrow, but to me the best comeback is Malik McDowell. How many former high draft picks bust out of the league from off field injury and character issues before taking a snap, then 4 years later make it back to the league and make an impact year 1? Seems like a way cooler story to highlight (and way more unique path) than a guy coming off an ankle or ACL injury, which pretty much happens every year. 

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
Come back, burrow might be a fine pick but I’d almost never vote for a second year guy a comeback player. to me this is someone who played well before, had either a major injury or just stunk for a bit, then plays like a pro bowl player. 
I’m leaning Carson Wentz here. He definitely still has his bad moments but he’s leading a strong contender after looking like he didn’t deserve to start. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Najee not even worthy of a mention?

We all know how these things work so not surprised he’s not in the conversation, but the highest graded rookie by PFF is Penei Sewell at 91.0. First 5 games (switched to LT after preseason bc Decker was out first 6 weeks) he ranked 60th out of 65 T. Last 8 weeks, he’s the highest ranked OL in the NFL (95.0, 93.5 in pass pro.)

Has had notably excellent games v Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald. Mean,  nasty, and quick af. He’s the whole package and didn’t turn 21 until Week 5. Parsons is a terrific defender but Detroit is so lucky he fell to #7 He could be our Jackie Slater.
I don't think Najee is worth a mention at all. Frankly, I think he's been a disappointment, not that its his fault, he was a horrible 1st pick by the Steelers, but their running game isn't any better than it was without him. I'd argue Freiermuth has actually probably been a more valuable player for them. 

Sewell has been great, I agree 100%, and I still maintain that the Falcons, Bengals, and Dolphins all made mistakes passing on him. But OL never win this award, unless there is absolutely nobody of note at the skill positions. 

Come back, burrow might be a fine pick but I’d almost never vote for a second year guy a comeback player. to me this is someone who played well before, had either a major injury or just stunk for a bit, then plays like a pro bowl player. 
I’m leaning Carson Wentz here. He definitely still has his bad moments but he’s leading a strong contender after looking like he didn’t deserve to start. 
You make a fair point on Burrow. I was just thinking the award seems to go to a guy who missed most of the season before, so I was thinking him or Dak. I'm not a fan of Wentz here, as I feel like he hasn't really played well, he just went to a better team. I think they were better with Rivers a year ago.

But, you got me thinking, would Gronk fit? He's been back to his pro bowl self whenever he's been on the field this season. 

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Vegas Insider odds on ORotY

CONTENDERS TO WIN 2021-22 NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR (2/6/22)

Player (Team) Odds

Mac Jones (New England) -500

Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati) +333

Jaylen Waddle (Miami) +6600

Najee Harris (Pittsburgh) +10000

Javonte Williams (Denver) +10000

Rashawn Slater (L.A. Chargers) +12500

DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia) +12500

Justin Fields (Chicago) +15000

Elijah Mitchell (San Francisco) +20000

Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville) +20000

 

Uruk-Hai

Footballguy
travdogg said:
Defensive Player of the Year-Aaron Donald, people may be sick of voting for him, but he's the most dominant defender in the NFL, and is  already a 1st ballot HOF lock. He leads his position in sacks and is 2nd in tackles, despite constant double teams and occasional triples. I can see arguments for Myles Garrett, TJ Watt(just off sack totals, he wouldn't be my 1st pick on the Steelers, that would be Heyward) and Kevin Byard, but I won't make the case for any of them myself.
People may also be sick of oxygen as their preferred breathing chemical, but I don't care. I've been watching football since the late 1960s and, while I've seen many great defensive players, there are 4 who were truly transcendent (apologies to Deacon Jones, who I never got to see much in his prime): Lawrence Taylor, Reggie White, Edward Reed, and Aaron Donald. I realize this isn't a Lifetime Achievement Award, but Donald is still screwing up game plans coast-to-coast. There is no defensive player teams have to reckon more than him. Teams dedicate three guys to him, and he still beats them. 

I think either Garrett or Watt will actually win, but I'd vote for Donald easily. That dude is a wrecking machine. 

 

Boston

Footballguy
People may also be sick of oxygen as their preferred breathing chemical, but I don't care. I've been watching football since the late 1960s and, while I've seen many great defensive players, there are 4 who were truly transcendent (apologies to Deacon Jones, who I never got to see much in his prime): Lawrence Taylor, Reggie White, Edward Reed, and Aaron Donald. I realize this isn't a Lifetime Achievement Award, but Donald is still screwing up game plans coast-to-coast. There is no defensive player teams have to reckon more than him. Teams dedicate three guys to him, and he still beats them. 

I think either Garrett or Watt will actually win, but I'd vote for Donald easily. That dude is a wrecking machine. 


Just out of curiosity why don't you put Ronnie Lott on your list?

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Let's list all the NFL head coaches in the last 50 years who have won at least 11 games and a division title in each of their first three seasons as a head coach.  I'll start:

1. Matt LaFleur (13-3, 13-3, 11-3 (so far))

2. ?
I would have gone with Jim Harbaugh, who went 13-3, 11-4-1, and 12-4 with SF. But the Niners were a wildcard team the third year.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
I didn't see a thread about MVP or Coach of the Year, or Rookie of the Year, so I figured I'd start one, since I have opinions on them.

MVP-Tom Brady, I really don't see any reason to choose anyone else. Brady is leading the league in both yards and TDs, on a top team. Frankly, I'd argue a vote for someone else, is just wanting to pick someone who isn't Brady.

Coach of the Year-Bill Belichick, I can see an argument for Kingsbury, as voters seem to like younger coaches who had a big record improvement from the previous season, that said, this was supposed to be the end of NE's run. Instead, they've circled the wagons(right in Buffalo's face) and entered the week as the #1 seed in the AFC. 

Offensive Player of the Year-Cooper Kupp, this award almost never goes to QB's anymore, since MVP basically became the best QB award(which is probably fair) Kupp is having a Jerry Rice season and is has become a dominant player week in and week out. WR's almost never win, but I don't see a better argument for anyone else. Shout out to Trent Williams who according to multiple outlets(PFF, Football Outsiders, ETR) is having the best season any OL has had on 15-20 years. That said, an OL will never win, even if they are most deserving. Jonathan Taylor will probably get votes, but it certainly won't be from me. Henry shouldn't have won it last year in my opinion either(Kelce and Adams were more deserving)

Defensive Player of the Year-Aaron Donald, people may be sick of voting for him, but he's the most dominant defender in the NFL, and is  already a 1st ballot HOF lock. He leads his position in sacks and is 2nd in tackles, despite constant double teams and occasional triples. I can see arguments for Myles Garrett, TJ Watt(just off sack totals, he wouldn't be my 1st pick on the Steelers, that would be Heyward) and Kevin Byard, but I won't make the case for any of them myself.

Offensive Rookie of the Year-Mac Jones, he's leading his team to a potential #1 seed, and while his counting numbers aren't great, he's 3rd in the NFL in completion percentage, and has a 97 passer rating. I could potentially see a case for Ja'Marr Chase, but he's been taking a backseat to Tee Higgins of late, and adjusted for situation, I'm not sure he's even been the best rookie WR(I'd argue for Waddle) 

Defensive Rookie of the Year-Micah Parsons, maybe the easiest award to pick. Parsons might already be the best LB in the NFL. He might also be among the best DE's if he played there full time. Still can't believe he fell as far as he did in the draft. He was easily the best defensive player in the draft in my eyes, and arguably the best LB prospect in years. 

Comeback Player of the Year-Joe Burrow, its not a great year for comeback players, so I'll go with a guy who was coming off an ACL tear, and has looked every bit like a guy who deserved to be picked #1, on a Bengals team that looks like they could be good for years to come, and could possibly win the AFC North. 
I guess you wrote these before yesterday's games. 

MVP- Rodgers took a giant leap in vegas odds and Brady a giant fall.  They're practically tied right now in odds, with the leader changing Depending on the sports book.  Seems one of these two is a lock.

OPOY-  I agree is an easy two horse race between Kupp and Taylor.  They're practically tied in odds and no one is even remotely in the convo besides them.

DPOY- Donald actually isn't even in the top 4 for Vegas odds.  Watt, Garrett, Parsons, Diggs in that order are your top 4.

Rookies.  Mac and Parsons are locks.

CPOY- Surprised you didn't mention Dak.  He's the current vegas odds favourite, followed by Burrow.

COY- Bill leads the way in odds, with Lafleur a close 2nd.  Kliff is actually quite far back.  You can pretty much almost always use the wins-expected wins formula to find out who will take this.

 

Pipes

Footballguy
Let's list all the NFL head coaches in the last 50 years who have won at least 11 games and a division title in each of their first three seasons as a head coach.  I'll start:

1. Matt LaFleur (13-3, 13-3, 11-3 (so far))

2. ?
Yeah LaFleur deserves it this year.  They've been decimated with injuries and are in the drivers seats for the #1 seed in the NFC.  Stunning how little respect he gets on a National scale for being such a great coach.

 

CletiusMaximus

Footballguy
Yeah LaFleur deserves it this year.  They've been decimated with injuries and are in the drivers seats for the #1 seed in the NFC.  Stunning how little respect he gets on a National scale for being such a great coach.


I'm sure some opinions on LaFleur are discounted because he's got the luxury of a great quarterback, but that somewhat ignores the fact the team he took over had won 13 games total the prior two seasons.  He deserves credit not only for the team's success, but I think Rodgers has really benefitted from having LaFleur's gameplans and the GM's near flawless team building.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
I guess you wrote these before yesterday's games. 

MVP- Rodgers took a giant leap in vegas odds and Brady a giant fall.  They're practically tied right now in odds, with the leader changing Depending on the sports book.  Seems one of these two is a lock.

OPOY-  I agree is an easy two horse race between Kupp and Taylor.  They're practically tied in odds and no one is even remotely in the convo besides them.

DPOY- Donald actually isn't even in the top 4 for Vegas odds.  Watt, Garrett, Parsons, Diggs in that order are your top 4.

Rookies.  Mac and Parsons are locks.

CPOY- Surprised you didn't mention Dak.  He's the current vegas odds favourite, followed by Burrow.

COY- Bill leads the way in odds, with Lafleur a close 2nd.  Kliff is actually quite far back.  You can pretty much almost always use the wins-expected wins formula to find out who will take this.
I like Burrow a little more than Dak, and I think his comeback has been more impressive. It happened later in the season, and he's on a much less talented team.

That DPOY group is silly. Parsons has no business on that list, and Diggs shouldn't even be an argument. He's been one of the worst players on the Cowboys defense. INT's are nice, but he's given up a ton of big plays. He has INT's, because he's a gambler, and teams aren''t afraid of throwing at him.  If a CB were going to get it, it should be Jalen Ramsey. If a DB gets it, it should be Kevin Byard. 

 

Deamon

Footballguy
I like Burrow a little more than Dak, and I think his comeback has been more impressive. It happened later in the season, and he's on a much less talented team.

That DPOY group is silly. Parsons has no business on that list, and Diggs shouldn't even be an argument. He's been one of the worst players on the Cowboys defense. INT's are nice, but he's given up a ton of big plays. He has INT's, because he's a gambler, and teams aren''t afraid of throwing at him.  If a CB were going to get it, it should be Jalen Ramsey. If a DB gets it, it should be Kevin Byard. 
Fair, but based on what Dak went through, the speed he recovered, the work he put into his rehab and miraculous recovery, I think the award is his if they win their div.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Fair, but based on what Dak went through, the speed he recovered, the work he put into his rehab and miraculous recovery, I think the award is his if they win their div.
What if Burrow wins his too, especially as its a much tougher division?

 

Deamon

Footballguy
What if Burrow wins his too, especially as its a much tougher division?
Still don't see it. Dak has a way better story, and those things tend to win this award (Alex Smith). 

Dak is actually a VERY heavy betting favourite right now and most are calling it a lock. 

Dak -1000

Burrow +600

Wentz +1500

Connor +2500

James +2500

Cam +4000

 

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