AZ Passing stats to go down, AZ rushing stats to go UP! (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

I have been doing a lot more watching and reading than posting in the SHark Pool for the past couple of months. Partly because I want to not give away every player I like for all these dynasty leagues I am in but also to try and learn from some great minds on this board. Now I respect the trio I am going to pick apart in this thread but I can't just sit and watch this anymore. I could go on and on about a lot of players but to me the Arizona WR/QB situation is the best place to start as we have 2 WR that are in the top7 including 1 of them at #1 consensus from Chris Smith(very sharp), Sigmund Bloom(Board Credit for days), and Jeff Pasquino(Guy mathmatically thinks on a different level from the rest of us mere mortals). Now I like to think that I am open minded when it comes to football and I always am willing to listen to the other side of the arguement and acknowledge it as such.

But lets runn through what has been the worst run franchise in the past 20 years, so bad that even the great Denny Green couldn't last there past 3 seasons? And now we are going to take Fitz at #1 and Boldin at #7 because of what? Before we answer those questions lets take a look at what AZ has done to get to this point, shall we.

The Cardinals are in the middle of one of the worst runs in NFL history.

1989: 5-11

1990: 5-11

1991: 4-12

1992: 4-12

1993: 7-9

1994: 8-8

1995: 4-12

1996: 7-9

1997: 4-12

1998: 9-7

1999: 6-10

2000: 3-13

2001: 7-9

2002: 5-11

2003: 4-12

2004: 6-10

2005: 5-11

2006: 5-11

Total 98-190 over the past 18 years...thats over 10 losses a season as an average...this is the epitimy of ineptitude in the NFL. Why do I bring this up? Because you don't buy a car without finding out as much as you can about the company you are buying it from(most people). You want to know what the house is built of before you buy it too. The brand name here is tarnished a lot. I know some of you are still saying who gives a flying spit but to me it matters. And now lets move to the AZ 2007 off season report.

They already had one of worst lines in football and they drafted Leonard Davis super high way back when and watched him wlak out the door to sign with Dallas. AZ fans can yell and scream about how awful he was but maybe he should have been moved inside on the OL a long time ago. But the front office is so pathetic that they would never do that and draft another LT, they just watch one of their best OL leave without any compensation. They also lost Chris Liwienski which may not matter to a lot of people but he logged in a lot of good games in Minnesota when he played there. Again he comes to AZ and can't do much.

And the AZ Cardinals have signed at OL...Mike Gandy! Gandy who was used like a Disney turnstile heading directly to the QB last season. They sign Gandy and maybe he can get things turned around but this will be his 3rd NFL team to play for...I gotta think if he was really good we would have known by now. And they have brought in C Al Johnson from Dallas...wow! They ahve done nothing IMO to upgrade an OL that cannot run the ball or offer much protection for Matt Leinart who actually just needs a solid RT to block his blind side more than anything. The Cardinals have signed a few players on defense, lets have a look. DBs Ralph Brown (3 INtin 7 seasons), Roderick Hood(jack of all trades master of none), and Terrence Holt who is solid but nothing special. And on the DL they brought in Rodney Bailey, Joe Tafoya, and Ross Kolodziej....the 3 of these guys have 18 seasons combined under their belts and have a combined sack total life time of 15 sacks. That is an avg of less than 1 per season with each 3 contributing...they avg less than a 1/3 of a sack per season for each of them.

I see nothing that has been brought on on either side that would make me think they will be any better at running or stopping the run, if you can do neither you end up with a lot of 3 and outs on offense...especially if all you can do is throw the ball.

Lets breakdown Fitz, Boldin, and Leinart.

Larry Fitzgerald: Fitz has had 103 catches in a season and 2 other seasons with less than 70. Granted he was hurt last year but I wonder if the new HC is going to try and throw as much as Green did. He might have to but that doesn't mean that Fitz will pop right back to 100+ catches. He has the skills to do it sure...but he doesn't play in Indy, Cinci, or St Louis and he could easily end up with a solid season of 80 catches for about 1,000-1,100 yds as he avg 13.5 a catch and maybe 8 TD...he is no lock to hit 15 TD in this offense or Arizona period. He had 10 his 2nd season and I wouldn't project that for him now.

I like Fitz a lot. He has the pedigree. he did it all thru college and played well against the good teams like Miami and whatnot. He has done it at the NFL level too. But Green who was a mentor for him for a long time is now gone. Can Fitz take it to the next level? Some say he did already but I also think Green wanted to showcase him while he was there and tried to feed him the ball as much as possible in 2005. Fitz just does not have the surrounding cast yet IMO to be thought of as the #1WR. I think that title even in Dyansty Leagues should go to WR that have a few more 80-90+ catch seasons under their belts and where the offense is in better shape.

Anquan Boldin: I really have a tough time with him at #7 on the boards. He had 100+ catches his rookie year but there was nobody else there. IN 2005 he did it again but I also insist the playbook Green was using was a major part of that. He has 20 TD in 4 seasons...part of one he was injured but that still is an avg of about 5 per season. A guy that has 5 TD is going to be number 7 on your boards? He isn't even really a strong candidate for 10 TD...I can see where Fitz might end up with 10-12 but not Boldin. And with a different coach you have to think there might be a reduction in receptions. With Fitz out last season Boldin managed 83 catches. I think 80 balls is going to be about his max in AZ this year and he might end up with similar yardage totals to Fitz but his TD will be in the mid single digits. You would take Boldin before DJax, Housh, Plax, Lee Evans, Javon Walker...I just see a chance for thos eplayers to rack up more TD and they are clear #1WR on their team. And there is a WR3 on this team that is looking for more playing time. Bryant Johnson is in the last year of his contract and has flashed some serious skills.

Matt Leinart: 2,500 yds and 11TD as a rookie and he is #8 on the QB board? I like him enough but he will be lucky to hit the top20 for QBs this season. How far out are we rating these QBs? I think its way too high for him but I can understand the sizzle over the actual steak here. I would rather spend later round picks on some quality veteran QBs than jump the gun on Leinart who is going about 5th/6th round in most drafts?

Maybe MOP is just not looking at this right, so I turn it over to the board now for some feedback. What am I missing?

 

[moleculo]

seems to me that a team with a poor run-blocking offensive line and a porous defense is going to have to throw alot, regardless of coach.

I'm not saying I'm a believer in Boldin/Fitz/Leinart, but I understand where the hype comes from.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

seems to me that a team with a poor run-blocking offensive line and a porous defense is going to have to throw alot, regardless of coach. I'm not saying I'm a believer in Boldin/Fitz/Leinart, but I understand where the hype comes from.

Right, good point Moleculo, but I think it is more hype than fact. Top10 WR and especially #1 WR rankings IMO are for guys that you think are going to be surefire hits for 90-100+ catches, 1,300+ yds, and 10+TDs...there are very few of them but I think Chad Johnson and Steve Smith are in much better situations for this to happen. Is it just the youth of Fitz that is so appealing? In a redraft I would take Marvin Harrison before I would even touch Fitz.

 

[BigRed]

yknow I guess it's nice in a way that someone comes out of the closet and admits to being a Cards fan and lets it all hang out, but not to the tune of a 10,000 word post, cripes. Maybe you should've posted after you sobered up.



Personally I stopped reading after "the great Denny Green" part.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

yknow I guess it's nice in a way that someone comes out of the closet and admits to being a Cards fan and lets it all hang out, but not to the tune of a 10,000 word post, cripes. Maybe you should've posted after you sobered up.Personally I stopped reading after "the great Denny Green" part.

 

[Banger]

Fitz has the talent and opportunity to put him at #1 (although he wouldn't be mine), #7 for Boldin is too high because he's a possession wr (I'd put him around 13-15th probably) and isn't the redzone target and Leinart should probably be about the 12th-14th ranked QB.

AZ is a trendy pick because people have been predicting the turnaround year after year after year and one day they will be right and look like a genius. At the end of the day the OL was a huge problem last year and they've done little to nothing to improve it as you've pointed out so I don't see much reason for optimism.

 

[Marc Faletti]

Whether it's true or not, a lot of people believe Whisenhunt and Grim will have a very positive impact on the franchise.

For example, if they land Joe Thomas and a solid interior lineman in the draft, then put them under the tutelage of Grim, I think it's fair to assume their offensive consistency will improve. All of those things are far from certain, but if Fitz/Boldin/Leinart could produce even moderately good numbers in their situations the last few year(s), I can see why folks have them rated so highly.

 

[Sinrman]

I am one who has always appreciated a good, young offense. I like what I see so far in AZ with their offense. Fitz, Boldin, and Leinart should be there for many years. James, not so long, of course, but in the interim, should be decent and give them some veteran experience. I think their biggest problem of course is that O-line and their defense. If they can keep working on those, I can see them turning it around soon. Leinart and the gang need a couple more years together to get their chemistry going. Reminds me a bit of Peyton and the Indy crew. Offense = great. Defense = not so great. Give 'em time!

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Fantasy football performance doesn't equal real NFL football performance.

A team can throw the ball every down and have a terrible defense and running game, leading to inflated passing stats.

It really hasn't mattered which QB it was for the Cards the past several years - Boldin and Fitz continue to put up good numbers.

Add in not much from the TE, and you can see why these guys all elevate one another (Boldin, Fitz, Leinart).

A few more TDs surely wouldn't hurt though, I admit.

 

[stevegamer]

Here's the thing you're missing:

Youth + Talent + Proven Performance + Opportunity = Dynasty Value.

I'm trying to figure what there is NOT to like about these 3 guys, other than the team becoming competent. Yes, it may cut down ont heir passing attempts, but you want a relatively incompetent defense - it will get them into shootouts.

I also think you're undervaluing Rod Hood, but that's a minor quibble.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Fitz has the talent and opportunity to put him at #1 (although he wouldn't be mine), #7 for Boldin is too high because he's a possession wr (I'd put him around 13-15th probably) and isn't the redzone target and Leinart should probably be about the 12th-14th ranked QB. AZ is a trendy pick because people have been predicting the turnaround year after year after year and one day they will be right and look like a genius. At the end of the day the OL was a huge problem last year and they've done little to nothing to improve it as you've pointed out so I don't see much reason for optimism.

Is being a possession wr bad?BTW, Fitz and Boldin both average 13.5-13.6 YPR.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fantasy football performance doesn't equal real NFL football performance.A team can throw the ball every down and have a terrible defense and running game, leading to inflated passing stats.It really hasn't mattered which QB it was for the Cards the past several years - Boldin and Fitz continue to put up good numbers.Add in not much from the TE, and you can see why these guys all elevate one another (Boldin, Fitz, Leinart).A few more TDs surely wouldn't hurt though, I admit.

JP, not all bad defenses are the same. A team that cannot stop the run and watches the other team go on long drives up and down the field and then goes out against a fresh defense, can't run the ball and has a few 3 and outs...that doesn't make for a great fantasy season or for a productive passing team. The teams that light it up on offense typically have a defense that gives up big plays in the secondary and they are right back on the field. NO, St Louis, and Cinci all come to mind as teams that do that. They also have much better OL than the Cardinals as of now.

 

[Chase Stuart]

MOP:

The Cardinals record in 2004 doesn't really matter; the Cardinals record in 1989 is irrelevant. The Cardinals defense doesn't matter a ton, either, at least not to the extent that their apparently bad defense hurts Boldin and Fitzgerald.

Bottom line: Boldin ranked 3rd, 5th and 7th in receiving yards in his three seasons of 12+ games. In the other year, he ranked 5th in receptions during the weeks he played. If you believe that the best predictor of future FPs is receiving yards in prior years, I don't know how you could have Boldin outside of your top 7. He seems like as good a bet as there is to finish in the top 10 in receiving yards with quite a bit of upside.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Fantasy football performance doesn't equal real NFL football performance.A team can throw the ball every down and have a terrible defense and running game, leading to inflated passing stats.It really hasn't mattered which QB it was for the Cards the past several years - Boldin and Fitz continue to put up good numbers.Add in not much from the TE, and you can see why these guys all elevate one another (Boldin, Fitz, Leinart).A few more TDs surely wouldn't hurt though, I admit.

JP, not all bad defenses are the same. A team that cannot stop the run and watches the other team go on long drives up and down the field and then goes out against a fresh defense, can't run the ball and has a few 3 and outs...that doesn't make for a great fantasy season or for a productive passing team. The teams that light it up on offense typically have a defense that gives up big plays in the secondary and they are right back on the field. NO, St Louis, and Cinci all come to mind as teams that do that. They also have much better OL than the Cardinals as of now.

Why do you think Arizona can't stop the run? They've been dead average the past two years.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fitz has the talent and opportunity to put him at #1 (although he wouldn't be mine), #7 for Boldin is too high because he's a possession wr (I'd put him around 13-15th probably) and isn't the redzone target and Leinart should probably be about the 12th-14th ranked QB. AZ is a trendy pick because people have been predicting the turnaround year after year after year and one day they will be right and look like a genius. At the end of the day the OL was a huge problem last year and they've done little to nothing to improve it as you've pointed out so I don't see much reason for optimism.

Is being a possession wr bad? BTW, Fitz and Boldin both average 13.5-13.6 YPR.

To answer the question, I can't see it as a good thing when you are taking him at #7 in Dynasty leagues. And you are correct they both avg 13.5 per catch but Fitz scores more TD, period.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fantasy football performance doesn't equal real NFL football performance.A team can throw the ball every down and have a terrible defense and running game, leading to inflated passing stats.It really hasn't mattered which QB it was for the Cards the past several years - Boldin and Fitz continue to put up good numbers.Add in not much from the TE, and you can see why these guys all elevate one another (Boldin, Fitz, Leinart).A few more TDs surely wouldn't hurt though, I admit.

JP, not all bad defenses are the same. A team that cannot stop the run and watches the other team go on long drives up and down the field and then goes out against a fresh defense, can't run the ball and has a few 3 and outs...that doesn't make for a great fantasy season or for a productive passing team. The teams that light it up on offense typically have a defense that gives up big plays in the secondary and they are right back on the field. NO, St Louis, and Cinci all come to mind as teams that do that. They also have much better OL than the Cardinals as of now.

Why do you think Arizona can't stop the run? They've been dead average the past two years.

They also have managed to not lose 10 or more games a few times along the way too. If you are facing the Cardinals and you know they have weapons that can hurt you...as an OC my gameplan would be to try and go on long ball controlled drives and keep Fitz and Boldin on the bench. They don' really have a great rush defense as you pointed out...average at best, and probably could be pushed to below average if teams start runnin it even more.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Im actually a strong A Bolden supporter. I think the guy is a beast. I have seen flashes from Fitz, but I like Boldens consistency and tenacity. Not to mention he is a physical freak.

I agree with moleculo that this offense will be coming from behind or fighting to stay in games most of the year, so there should be plenty of passing atts. And Bolden gets the majority on a per game basis most of the time.

To me the Cardinals offensive success is all about the offensive line. And IMO your spot on about it. But Thomas would change things. There would still be holes, but less than last year.

Forget about the past. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. There is talent enough at the skill positions on offense for success.

If Leinart gets some time I easily could see improvement on last years numbers. If Bolden dominates, which he can at times, then the offense could be just that much better.

I believe it all starts with Bolden and the offensive line though. He will likely be this teams Hines Ward. I can see Bolden higher than Fitz, but I'm not sure where Leinart goes.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Fantasy football performance doesn't equal real NFL football performance.A team can throw the ball every down and have a terrible defense and running game, leading to inflated passing stats.It really hasn't mattered which QB it was for the Cards the past several years - Boldin and Fitz continue to put up good numbers.Add in not much from the TE, and you can see why these guys all elevate one another (Boldin, Fitz, Leinart).A few more TDs surely wouldn't hurt though, I admit.

JP, not all bad defenses are the same. A team that cannot stop the run and watches the other team go on long drives up and down the field and then goes out against a fresh defense, can't run the ball and has a few 3 and outs...that doesn't make for a great fantasy season or for a productive passing team. The teams that light it up on offense typically have a defense that gives up big plays in the secondary and they are right back on the field. NO, St Louis, and Cinci all come to mind as teams that do that. They also have much better OL than the Cardinals as of now.

Why do you think Arizona can't stop the run? They've been dead average the past two years.

They also have managed to not lose 10 or more games a few times along the way too. If you are facing the Cardinals and you know they have weapons that can hurt you...as an OC my gameplan would be to try and go on long ball controlled drives and keep Fitz and Boldin on the bench. They don' really have a great rush defense as you pointed out...average at best, and probably could be pushed to below average if teams start runnin it even more.

What average defenses couldn't be pushed to below average if teams start running it even more?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP:The Cardinals record in 2004 doesn't really matter; the Cardinals record in 1989 is irrelevant. The Cardinals defense doesn't matter a ton, either, at least not to the extent that their apparently bad defense hurts Boldin and Fitzgerald.Bottom line: Boldin ranked 3rd, 5th and 7th in receiving yards in his three seasons of 12+ games. In the other year, he ranked 5th in receptions during the weeks he played. If you believe that the best predictor of future FPs is receiving yards in prior years, I don't know how you could have Boldin outside of your top 7. He seems like as good a bet as there is to finish in the top 10 in receiving yards with quite a bit of upside.

Oh it matters Chase...weird things happen in Arizona just like in Cleveland where they haven't had a 1,000 yd rusher since Schottenheimer was in charge. If the 3 players we are talking about here do not perform up to their position what will be the answer by the masses? "It's AZ, does it really surprise anyone?" "Oh those Cardinals are mucking it up again...", and so on and so on. Why is it unreasonable to think that Whisen and crew will not try and change the offense from what Green implemented. You watched Leinart last season...is he really poised for a breatout season #2 like Carson Palmer did a few years ago in Cinci? Do you really believe that? I sure don't. I think Leinart will be fortunate to hit 20 TD this season which is almost double his production of last season...that's not enough spread over 2 #1WRs, and WR3 wanting more looks, and the TE/RB positions...you are not going to see AZ put up NO type numbers, now c'mon.

 

[Chris Smith]

Great post as usual Ministry... Always a great read...

When it comes to Dynasty rankings, I always try to ignore the past and focus squarely on the future. There are a number of reasons to value the Cardinals offense highly in years to come...

1. WR Larry Fitzgerald: This guy is a legitimate top receiver. He has the entire package of size, speed, agility and route running with a great work ethic to boot. He is only turning 24 years old this year and he will only get better over the next couple of seasons.

2. WR Anquan Boldin: The only downside of Boldin is his inability to reach the endzone on a consistent basis. That would be a reason to drop him down to the 12-15 range except that I see no reason he can't ultimately become a Hines Ward type of target and pull down 8 to 10 touchdowns per season. He has great size at 216 pounds and also is young (turning 27 this year)

3. QB Matt Leinart: In my opinion it doesn't matter what he did or didn't accomplish last season. After all he was a rookie on a team in which the offensive line had difficulty in pass protection (although the offensive line play did improve in the 2nd half of the year). Leinart has the size, the arm, the smarts and the drive to be great. He didn't do terrible as a rookie a year ago and will only get better as time goes on...

4. OK, you're right that was the easy part. How will this offense go from an average group to a great one... I see a few reasons for this unit to elevate their play...

i. - The addition of Russ Grimm as the offensive line coach... This guy is an exceptional coach and just his presence will help the OL become better this season. He has a great way about him and tends to get the most out of his players on a consistent basis.

ii. – The offensive line is more talented than most realize. They began to turn it around over the second half of last season but now have new bodies to incorporate into the group again which could slow down the process. Nobody will confuse Gandy with an elite lineman but he is experienced, has sound technique and is more athletic that Leonard Davis. He will not make anybody mistake him for Orlando Pace but he’ll do a solid job for the club. The rest of the starting unit (Wells, Ross, Johnson and Lutui) are young, have a lot of upside and good coaching could turn this into an above-average unit. It may take a year but don’t be surprised if Grimm gets this unit cooking by 2008

iii. Young talent still in the improving stage: Sure last season was a disappointment but when you have talent on offense like the Cardinals do, it is only a matter of time before it all begins to gel.

iv. Edgerrin James still has a few seasons left as a very good running back. He just started to make a real impact at the end of last season.

I put no emphasis whatsoever on a team’s performance in the past… offenses can go from terrible to elite in just a season or two as the St. Louis Rams did in 1999 and the Cincinnati Bengals did in 2003.

Looking ahead, I see no reason why the Cardinals cannot become a tremendous offensive team even as soon as this season. The stars are aligned and the cards are in place for this team to finally bring an exciting, high-scoring product to the field for the first time since 1987.

 

[Tau837]

Bottom line: Boldin ranked 3rd, 5th and 7th in receiving yards in his three seasons of 12+ games. In the other year, he ranked 5th in receptions during the weeks he played. If you believe that the best predictor of future FPs is receiving yards in prior years, I don't know how you could have Boldin outside of your top 7. He seems like as good a bet as there is to finish in the top 10 in receiving yards with quite a bit of upside.

IMO this is the best post of the thread.

 

[Tau837]

Fitz has the talent and opportunity to put him at #1 (although he wouldn't be mine), #7 for Boldin is too high because he's a possession wr (I'd put him around 13-15th probably) and isn't the redzone target and Leinart should probably be about the 12th-14th ranked QB. AZ is a trendy pick because people have been predicting the turnaround year after year after year and one day they will be right and look like a genius. At the end of the day the OL was a huge problem last year and they've done little to nothing to improve it as you've pointed out so I don't see much reason for optimism.

Is being a possession wr bad? BTW, Fitz and Boldin both average 13.5-13.6 YPR.

To answer the question, I can't see it as a good thing when you are taking him at #7 in Dynasty leagues. And you are correct they both avg 13.5 per catch but Fitz scores more TD, period.

Do you think TDs scored in the past are a reliable indicator of TDs that will be scored in the future?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fitz has the talent and opportunity to put him at #1 (although he wouldn't be mine), #7 for Boldin is too high because he's a possession wr (I'd put him around 13-15th probably) and isn't the redzone target and Leinart should probably be about the 12th-14th ranked QB. AZ is a trendy pick because people have been predicting the turnaround year after year after year and one day they will be right and look like a genius. At the end of the day the OL was a huge problem last year and they've done little to nothing to improve it as you've pointed out so I don't see much reason for optimism.

Is being a possession wr bad? BTW, Fitz and Boldin both average 13.5-13.6 YPR.

To answer the question, I can't see it as a good thing when you are taking him at #7 in Dynasty leagues. And you are correct they both avg 13.5 per catch but Fitz scores more TD, period.

Do you think TDs scored in the past are a reliable indicator of TDs that will be scored in the future?

I am going to show two examples of TD totals for that show both sides.Marvin Harrison...every year the board rails how he can't do it again.99: 1200: 1401: 1502: 1103: 1004: 1505: 1206: 12Laveranues Coles...his numbers are not that far off from Boldin btw. Avg of 84/85 catches a season for the past 5 years.01: 702: 503: 604: 105: 506: 6Coles will never be a 10 TD type WR, and with Boldin playing behind Fitz I can't see him reaching anything close to double digits either.

 

[s_ezy]

looking at past targets and yards per catch in past years seems like the best way to judge future prospects for a WR

gauging TDs is tough, they are such a random occurance in football games that if they come great, if not make sure the player is solid in other areas, i.e. receptions and yardage.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

There was a period of time when Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne didn't score TD's either. T

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There was a period of time when Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne didn't score TD's either. T

Holt was putting up 1,600 yd seasons while many were crying about his TD totals so that is slightly different. He also played in one of the most prolific offenses in modern football.Marvin Harrison wasn't catching 100 balls and posting 6 TD...he was just simply waiting to breakout, and once he did in 1999, he hasn't stopped since.Hines Ward elevated his game and became a guy that could hit double digits but 6-8 TD are a much safer bet. And his surrounding team has been really really good.Reggie Wayne plays behind the greatest WR ever after Jerry Rice...how could he post double digit TD every year? He is good for 80 catches, 1,100-1200 yds and 7-8 TD with manning throwing him the ball, that is his avg year. He also has the capability at anytime to increase those TD if Harrison starts to slow which has not really happened, and his entire team from top to bottom is far superior to AZ. Any other examples you want to toss out? We are talking about tkaing a guy that isn't even the WR1 and I don't think there is anydebate about that, at #7 in Dynasty drafts...there are an awful lot of good/great WR IMO that need to come off the board before I take Boldin. Supporters of this guy to me come across like they think he should be the WR1 in that offense...it isn't happening. Fitz has 24 TD in 3 seasons...Boldin has 20 spread over 4 seasons...over 12 years Fitz would have 96 to Boldin's 60 just to put it in perspective. Boldin appears to have a ceiling for TD IMO.

 

[Tau837]

Fitz has the talent and opportunity to put him at #1 (although he wouldn't be mine), #7 for Boldin is too high because he's a possession wr (I'd put him around 13-15th probably) and isn't the redzone target and Leinart should probably be about the 12th-14th ranked QB. AZ is a trendy pick because people have been predicting the turnaround year after year after year and one day they will be right and look like a genius. At the end of the day the OL was a huge problem last year and they've done little to nothing to improve it as you've pointed out so I don't see much reason for optimism.

Is being a possession wr bad? BTW, Fitz and Boldin both average 13.5-13.6 YPR.

To answer the question, I can't see it as a good thing when you are taking him at #7 in Dynasty leagues. And you are correct they both avg 13.5 per catch but Fitz scores more TD, period.

Do you think TDs scored in the past are a reliable indicator of TDs that will be scored in the future?

I am going to show two examples of TD totals for that show both sides.Marvin Harrison...every year the board rails how he can't do it again.99: 1200: 1401: 1502: 1103: 1004: 1505: 1206: 12Laveranues Coles...his numbers are not that far off from Boldin btw. Avg of 84/85 catches a season for the past 5 years.01: 702: 503: 604: 105: 506: 6Coles will never be a 10 TD type WR, and with Boldin playing behind Fitz I can't see him reaching anything close to double digits either.

People used to say that about Torry Holt:

+--------------------------+-------------------------+				 |		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1999 stl |  16 |	 3	 25	8.3	0 |	52	788  15.2	6 || 2000 stl |  16 |	 2	  7	3.5	0 |	82   1635  19.9	6 || 2001 stl |  16 |	 2	  0	0.0	0 |	81   1363  16.8	7 || 2002 stl |  16 |	 2	 18	9.0	0 |	91   1302  14.3	4 || 2003 stl |  16 |	 1	  5	5.0	0 |   117   1696  14.5   12 || 2004 stl |  16 |	 0	  0	0.0	0 |	94   1372  14.6   10 || 2005 stl |  14 |	 1	  2	2.0	0 |   102   1331  13.0	9 || 2006 stl |  16 |	 0	  0	0.0	0 |	93   1188  12.8   10 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 126 |	11	 57	5.2	0 |   712  10675  15.0   64 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

Hines Ward is another WR who didn't score much his first 4 seasons and then broke out with double digit TDs in 3 of his next 4 seasons.And it's not like a WR has to be a "10 TD type WR" in order to be worthy of the top 10. Here are the TDs scored by the top 10 WRs the past several seasons:2006 - 12, 13, 9, 7, 8, 10, 8, 8, 8, 72005 - 12, 10, 9, 9, 10, 9, 11, 7, 12, 112004 - 16, 12, 11, 14, 15, 11, 10, 12, 9, 92003 - 17, 12, 10, 8, 10, 10, 8, 10, 9, 82002 - 11, 13, 12, 10, 7, 8, 9, 7, 7, 92001 - 15, 16, 8, 11, 10, 8, 9, 7, 9, 92000 - 15, 14, 13, 8, 10, 9, 6, 9, 8, 9Boldin probably needs 7 or more TDs to be able to finish in the top 10, assuming he is healthy. He has reached that number in 2 of his 4 seasons. He finished as WR4 and WR8 in those seasons.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fitz has the talent and opportunity to put him at #1 (although he wouldn't be mine), #7 for Boldin is too high because he's a possession wr (I'd put him around 13-15th probably) and isn't the redzone target and Leinart should probably be about the 12th-14th ranked QB. AZ is a trendy pick because people have been predicting the turnaround year after year after year and one day they will be right and look like a genius. At the end of the day the OL was a huge problem last year and they've done little to nothing to improve it as you've pointed out so I don't see much reason for optimism.

Is being a possession wr bad? BTW, Fitz and Boldin both average 13.5-13.6 YPR.

To answer the question, I can't see it as a good thing when you are taking him at #7 in Dynasty leagues. And you are correct they both avg 13.5 per catch but Fitz scores more TD, period.

Do you think TDs scored in the past are a reliable indicator of TDs that will be scored in the future?

I am going to show two examples of TD totals for that show both sides.Marvin Harrison...every year the board rails how he can't do it again.99: 1200: 1401: 1502: 1103: 1004: 1505: 1206: 12Laveranues Coles...his numbers are not that far off from Boldin btw. Avg of 84/85 catches a season for the past 5 years.01: 702: 503: 604: 105: 506: 6Coles will never be a 10 TD type WR, and with Boldin playing behind Fitz I can't see him reaching anything close to double digits either.

People used to say that about Torry Holt:

+--------------------------+-------------------------+				 |		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1999 stl |  16 |	 3	 25	8.3	0 |	52	788  15.2	6 || 2000 stl |  16 |	 2	  7	3.5	0 |	82   1635  19.9	6 || 2001 stl |  16 |	 2	  0	0.0	0 |	81   1363  16.8	7 || 2002 stl |  16 |	 2	 18	9.0	0 |	91   1302  14.3	4 || 2003 stl |  16 |	 1	  5	5.0	0 |   117   1696  14.5   12 || 2004 stl |  16 |	 0	  0	0.0	0 |	94   1372  14.6   10 || 2005 stl |  14 |	 1	  2	2.0	0 |   102   1331  13.0	9 || 2006 stl |  16 |	 0	  0	0.0	0 |	93   1188  12.8   10 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 126 |	11	 57	5.2	0 |   712  10675  15.0   64 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

Hines Ward is another WR who didn't score much his first 4 seasons and then broke out with double digit TDs in 3 of his next 4 seasons.And it's not like a WR has to be a "10 TD type WR" in order to be worthy of the top 10. Here are the TDs scored by the top 10 WRs the past several seasons:2006 - 12, 13, 9, 7, 8, 10, 8, 8, 8, 72005 - 12, 10, 9, 9, 10, 9, 11, 7, 12, 112004 - 16, 12, 11, 14, 15, 11, 10, 12, 9, 92003 - 17, 12, 10, 8, 10, 10, 8, 10, 9, 82002 - 11, 13, 12, 10, 7, 8, 9, 7, 7, 92001 - 15, 16, 8, 11, 10, 8, 9, 7, 9, 92000 - 15, 14, 13, 8, 10, 9, 6, 9, 8, 9Boldin probably needs 7 or more TDs to be able to finish in the top 10, assuming he is healthy. He has reached that number in 2 of his 4 seasons. He finished as WR4 and WR8 in those seasons.

Why are you guys bringing up Holt? He has a higher avg per catch and his yds per season from '00-'03 is 1,635 1,363 1,302 1,696...find another WR that avg about 1,500 yds a season for 4 straight years...you won't except maybe Rice. Last 4 seasons he has had 12, 10, 9, and 10 TD...and his yds have decreased a little to offset that. Boldin's numbers don't look like that...here let me help you.'03: 1,300'04: injury'05: 1,400'06: 1,200He has avg when healthy about 1,300 a season...which is great. And he had 8 TD as a rookie, 7 his third season, and 4 last season...I know I posted that his TD were going to take a hit as Fitz got more time under his belt and was soundly scolded on these boards but it is ringing true. His TD totals are not going up but down. You would take Boldin over Holt?

 

[Tau837]

There was a period of time when Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne didn't score TD's either. T

Holt was putting up 1,600 yd seasons while many were crying about his TD totals so that is slightly different. He also played in one of the most prolific offenses in modern football.Marvin Harrison wasn't catching 100 balls and posting 6 TD...he was just simply waiting to breakout, and once he did in 1999, he hasn't stopped since.Hines Ward elevated his game and became a guy that could hit double digits but 6-8 TD are a much safer bet. And his surrounding team has been really really good.Reggie Wayne plays behind the greatest WR ever after Jerry Rice...how could he post double digit TD every year? He is good for 80 catches, 1,100-1200 yds and 7-8 TD with manning throwing him the ball, that is his avg year. He also has the capability at anytime to increase those TD if Harrison starts to slow which has not really happened, and his entire team from top to bottom is far superior to AZ. Any other examples you want to toss out? We are talking about tkaing a guy that isn't even the WR1 and I don't think there is anydebate about that, at #7 in Dynasty drafts...there are an awful lot of good/great WR IMO that need to come off the board before I take Boldin. Supporters of this guy to me come across like they think he should be the WR1 in that offense...it isn't happening. Fitz has 24 TD in 3 seasons...Boldin has 20 spread over 4 seasons...over 12 years Fitz would have 96 to Boldin's 60 just to put it in perspective. Boldin appears to have a ceiling for TD IMO.

Holt had 4 seasons with average to low TDs. He had 1600 yards in one of those. People were whining about it big time around here.Agree on Harrison.Why can't Boldin "elevate his game" like Ward? I like Ward a lot, but I personally think that Boldin is more talented.Don't understand your point on Wayne. You are saying that Boldin is WR2 on his team and not worth taking at #7. Wayne is a WR2... do you think he is a top 7 dynasty WR? In the past 2 seasons, Wayne has 169/2365/14 in 32 games, compared to Boldin's 185/2605/11 in 30 games.On your Fitz-Boldin comparison, here are their 16 game averages:Fitz 82/1115/9Boldin 98/1316/6We're apparently just on a different page, since I'd prefer Boldin's average full season performance to Fitz's.I'm interested to see your top 10 WRs since you have said Boldin isn't in it. Do you care to post it?

 

[Tau837]

Fitz has the talent and opportunity to put him at #1 (although he wouldn't be mine), #7 for Boldin is too high because he's a possession wr (I'd put him around 13-15th probably) and isn't the redzone target and Leinart should probably be about the 12th-14th ranked QB. AZ is a trendy pick because people have been predicting the turnaround year after year after year and one day they will be right and look like a genius. At the end of the day the OL was a huge problem last year and they've done little to nothing to improve it as you've pointed out so I don't see much reason for optimism.

Is being a possession wr bad? BTW, Fitz and Boldin both average 13.5-13.6 YPR.

To answer the question, I can't see it as a good thing when you are taking him at #7 in Dynasty leagues. And you are correct they both avg 13.5 per catch but Fitz scores more TD, period.

Do you think TDs scored in the past are a reliable indicator of TDs that will be scored in the future?

I am going to show two examples of TD totals for that show both sides.Marvin Harrison...every year the board rails how he can't do it again.99: 1200: 1401: 1502: 1103: 1004: 1505: 1206: 12Laveranues Coles...his numbers are not that far off from Boldin btw. Avg of 84/85 catches a season for the past 5 years.01: 702: 503: 604: 105: 506: 6Coles will never be a 10 TD type WR, and with Boldin playing behind Fitz I can't see him reaching anything close to double digits either.

People used to say that about Torry Holt:

+--------------------------+-------------------------+				 |		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1999 stl |  16 |	 3	 25	8.3	0 |	52	788  15.2	6 || 2000 stl |  16 |	 2	  7	3.5	0 |	82   1635  19.9	6 || 2001 stl |  16 |	 2	  0	0.0	0 |	81   1363  16.8	7 || 2002 stl |  16 |	 2	 18	9.0	0 |	91   1302  14.3	4 || 2003 stl |  16 |	 1	  5	5.0	0 |   117   1696  14.5   12 || 2004 stl |  16 |	 0	  0	0.0	0 |	94   1372  14.6   10 || 2005 stl |  14 |	 1	  2	2.0	0 |   102   1331  13.0	9 || 2006 stl |  16 |	 0	  0	0.0	0 |	93   1188  12.8   10 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 126 |	11	 57	5.2	0 |   712  10675  15.0   64 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

Hines Ward is another WR who didn't score much his first 4 seasons and then broke out with double digit TDs in 3 of his next 4 seasons.And it's not like a WR has to be a "10 TD type WR" in order to be worthy of the top 10. Here are the TDs scored by the top 10 WRs the past several seasons:2006 - 12, 13, 9, 7, 8, 10, 8, 8, 8, 72005 - 12, 10, 9, 9, 10, 9, 11, 7, 12, 112004 - 16, 12, 11, 14, 15, 11, 10, 12, 9, 92003 - 17, 12, 10, 8, 10, 10, 8, 10, 9, 82002 - 11, 13, 12, 10, 7, 8, 9, 7, 7, 92001 - 15, 16, 8, 11, 10, 8, 9, 7, 9, 92000 - 15, 14, 13, 8, 10, 9, 6, 9, 8, 9Boldin probably needs 7 or more TDs to be able to finish in the top 10, assuming he is healthy. He has reached that number in 2 of his 4 seasons. He finished as WR4 and WR8 in those seasons.

Why are you guys bringing up Holt? He has a higher avg per catch and his yds per season from '00-'03 is 1,635 1,363 1,302 1,696...find another WR that avg about 1,500 yds a season for 4 straight years...you won't except maybe Rice. Last 4 seasons he has had 12, 10, 9, and 10 TD...and his yds have decreased a little to offset that. Boldin's numbers don't look like that...here let me help you.'03: 1,300'04: injury'05: 1,400'06: 1,200He has avg when healthy about 1,300 a season...which is great. And he had 8 TD as a rookie, 7 his third season, and 4 last season...I know I posted that his TD were going to take a hit as Fitz got more time under his belt and was soundly scolded on these boards but it is ringing true. His TD totals are not going up but down. You would take Boldin over Holt?

Holt's first 4 seasons averaged: 77/1272/6Boldin's first 4 seasons 16 game average: 98/1316/6Hint: we're not talking about Holt's next 4 years, which included his second 1600 yard season and all of his good TD seasons.

 

[greeklightnin]

A most interesting arguement you guys have going on here.

There is one big difference in the Holt-Boldin arguement that that you guys havent touched upon.

Holt essentailly took over as the #1 WR with a fading Bruce in front of him.

The same cannot be said for Boldin taking Fitz's spot, therefore Boldin is capped a bit.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

There was a period of time when Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne didn't score TD's either. T

Holt was putting up 1,600 yd seasons while many were crying about his TD totals so that is slightly different. He also played in one of the most prolific offenses in modern football.

Facts down?Holt had one 1600 yard season in his first 4 years.

 

[Tau837]

A most interesting arguement you guys have going on here.There is one big difference in the Holt-Boldin arguement that that you guys havent touched upon.Holt essentailly took over as the #1 WR with a fading Bruce in front of him. The same cannot be said for Boldin taking Fitz's spot, therefore Boldin is capped a bit.

Good point. Personally, I didn't mean to make this about Boldin vs. Holt. The issue in my mind is whether or not Boldin is worth a #7, or more generally a top 10, dynasty WR pick right now. I think the answer is yes. I'm waiting for MOP's top 10 list so I can see which of his candidates compare unfavorably to Boldin.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

A most interesting arguement you guys have going on here.There is one big difference in the Holt-Boldin arguement that that you guys havent touched upon.Holt essentailly took over as the #1 WR with a fading Bruce in front of him. The same cannot be said for Boldin taking Fitz's spot, therefore Boldin is capped a bit.

Good point. Personally, I didn't mean to make this about Boldin vs. Holt. The issue in my mind is whether or not Boldin is worth a #7, or more generally a top 10, dynasty WR pick right now. I think the answer is yes. I'm waiting for MOP's top 10 list so I can see which of his candidates compare unfavorably to Boldin.

Boldin finished 8th in 2005 with Fitzgerald putting up moster stats. He finished 17th last year despiote playing for a team with a washed up QB and a rookie who held out. Bolding catches passes at the highest rate per game in NFL history. He is good. If he catches 7tds, which is very reasonable with an improving Leinart, then he is a top 10 wr.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There was a period of time when Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne didn't score TD's either. T

Holt was putting up 1,600 yd seasons while many were crying about his TD totals so that is slightly different. He also played in one of the most prolific offenses in modern football.

Facts down?Holt had one 1600 yard season in his first 4 years.

I highlighted where he went on a tear of avg 1,500 yds a season over 4 years, and he had 2 1,600 yd seasons in that span including 1 where he ws 3 yds shy of 1,700...just for the record.

 

[Byron_nyc]

I just want to add an intangible about Boldin --- this is a guy who prepares and prepares and prepares, mentally, physically, spiritually, to play football, and has been doing that -- and only that -- since he was nine years old. As a person, he has that Michael Jordan / Tiger Woods thing of wanting to always improve. Most pros have it, but few as intensely as Anquan Boldin. A lot of guys in the league look up to Boldin because of this quality.

Who knows what this means -- its a team sport and without a good guard on the blindside everyone will lose in Ari no matter how many times they throw the ball. But this Boldin kid has the physical skill and personal qualities to match his role model, Marvin Harrision, if the pieces around him fall into place.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

There was a period of time when Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne didn't score TD's either. T

Holt was putting up 1,600 yd seasons while many were crying about his TD totals so that is slightly different. He also played in one of the most prolific offenses in modern football.

Facts down?Holt had one 1600 yard season in his first 4 years.

I highlighted where he went on a tear of avg 1,500 yds a season over 4 years, and he had 2 1,600 yd seasons in that span including 1 where he ws 3 yds shy of 1,700...just for the record.

You, like a typical fisherman, distorted facts to suit your assertions. People complained about Holt's lack of touchdowns during his first four years. His first four years are very similiar to Boldin's. Many said he would never score TD's; he was just a between the 20's guy.His year 5- which you keep citing- is not pertinent to this discussion. In that 1600 yard season, he began scoring TD's.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

So both WRs have the yardage, and now we have a new HC, but it's still Leinart, Boldin and Fitz.

The comparisons to Indy would be a good place to start. I'm not comparing the 3-some to Peyton-Wayne-Harrison on a skill level - but look at the TD production.

Manning had 31 TD passes. Harrison 12, Wayne 9. That's 21 of 31. Just about 2/3rds.

Now look at Leinart - 11 TDs, 3 to Boldin and 4 to Fitz. 7 out of 11. Just about 2/3rds. And yes, Fitz was out a few of Leinart's starts, but let's stick with 2/3rds to be conservative.

So the question is not about the yardage or the catches then, but more about the TDs, right?

Boldin was the only Top 24 WR last year not to have 6 TDs except for AJ, who had 5. So Boldin (4) had the fewest.

Fitz was hurt part of 2006, but he was still WR 24.

Compare them again to the next most prolific duo (possibly trio) of WRs and Carson Palmer in Cincy. Palmer through 28 TDs, 25 to his WRs (CJ 7, Henry 9, Housh 9) - so nearly all of his TDs (25 of 28) went to his WRs.

There are two other duos in the Top 24 from the same team - RoyW and Furrey from Detroit - who had 7 and 6 TDs from Kitna's 21 (13 of 21, again close to 2/3rds) and also TO and TGlenn who had 13 and 6 each (from Romo and Bledsoe - who combined for 26 - again, 19 of 26 is close to 2/3rds).

So if Leinart can put up 20 TDs, I'd expect 13-14 TDs for Boldin and Fitz combined. That's my expectation on the low end, with no degradation in their yardage or catches.

 

[Giggity]

When did AZ do anything to upgrade?

1st upgrade Jan. 1, 2007

2nd upgrade Jan. 14, 2007

3rd upgrade Jan. 23, 2007

You also imply Green was running a pass happy run and shoot offense. The same offense that got the OC fired midseason? The offense was horrible. Bad system, bad play calling, unforgivable usage of the offensive talent they had.

Now they're moving to a system that MAXIMIZES the offensive weapons the team has.

Big Ben's talent was maximized.

Randle El was maximized with ingenious plays/play calling.

Parker? Ward? Miller? Batch?

Grimm/Whisenhunt have a history of maximizing talents, creating a scheme/system that fits the personnel. Which is pretty much the exact opposite of what has gone on in AZ the last 5-6+ years.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

When did AZ do anything to upgrade?1st upgrade Jan. 1, 2007 2nd upgrade Jan. 14, 20073rd upgrade Jan. 23, 2007You also imply Green was running a pass happy run and shoot offense. The same offense that got the OC fired midseason? The offense was horrible. Bad system, bad play calling, unforgivable usage of the offensive talent they had. Now they're moving to a system that MAXIMIZES the offensive weapons the team has. Big Ben's talent was maximized.Randle El was maximized with ingenious plays/play calling.Parker? Ward? Miller? Batch? Grimm/Whisenhunt have a history of maximizing talents, creating a scheme/system that fits the personnel. Which is pretty much the exact opposite of what has gone on in AZ the last 5-6+ years.

Fantastic!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So both WRs have the yardage, and now we have a new HC, but it's still Leinart, Boldin and Fitz.The comparisons to Indy would be a good place to start. I'm not comparing the 3-some to Peyton-Wayne-Harrison on a skill level - but look at the TD production.Manning had 31 TD passes. Harrison 12, Wayne 9. That's 21 of 31. Just about 2/3rds.Now look at Leinart - 11 TDs, 3 to Boldin and 4 to Fitz. 7 out of 11. Just about 2/3rds. And yes, Fitz was out a few of Leinart's starts, but let's stick with 2/3rds to be conservative.So the question is not about the yardage or the catches then, but more about the TDs, right? Boldin was the only Top 24 WR last year not to have 6 TDs except for AJ, who had 5. So Boldin (4) had the fewest.Fitz was hurt part of 2006, but he was still WR 24.Compare them again to the next most prolific duo (possibly trio) of WRs and Carson Palmer in Cincy. Palmer through 28 TDs, 25 to his WRs (CJ 7, Henry 9, Housh 9) - so nearly all of his TDs (25 of 28) went to his WRs.There are two other duos in the Top 24 from the same team - RoyW and Furrey from Detroit - who had 7 and 6 TDs from Kitna's 21 (13 of 21, again close to 2/3rds) and also TO and TGlenn who had 13 and 6 each (from Romo and Bledsoe - who combined for 26 - again, 19 of 26 is close to 2/3rds).So if Leinart can put up 20 TDs, I'd expect 13-14 TDs for Boldin and Fitz combined. That's my expectation on the low end, with no degradation in their yardage or catches.

Great stuff JP...If Leinart tosses 20 TD...and 14 of them go to the WR...I would pencil in Fitz for 8-10 of them and Boldin for 4-6 max...so what I said was partly true. I do see a dip in catches for Boldin though. Bryant Johnson is going to catch more balls. Look at Pittsburgh last season and how many different WR were involved. IIRC they had 4 different WR with 30+ catches, probably the only team in the NFL to produce that. I think Johnson is going to be getting more looks as this is his contract year and they are going to want to see what they got. If they could move Boldin and Johnson is good enough(I think he is) to compliment Fitz, this would allow them to upgrade the defense or OL perhaps...maybe through a trade. I feel Johnson has a strong chance to log 40-50 catches this seaosn and I see Boldin maybe sliding to 70-80 with 1,000 yds and 4-6 TD...where does that rank in everyone's redraft leagues? Probably borderline top20. Things happen and not everyone logs the same stats year after year unless your name is Marvin Harrison...lets at least be open to the idea that Boldin might slide a little instead of always assuming the best case scenario.

 

[Giggity]

So both WRs have the yardage, and now we have a new HC, but it's still Leinart, Boldin and Fitz.The comparisons to Indy would be a good place to start. I'm not comparing the 3-some to Peyton-Wayne-Harrison on a skill level - but look at the TD production.Manning had 31 TD passes. Harrison 12, Wayne 9. That's 21 of 31. Just about 2/3rds.Now look at Leinart - 11 TDs, 3 to Boldin and 4 to Fitz. 7 out of 11. Just about 2/3rds. And yes, Fitz was out a few of Leinart's starts, but let's stick with 2/3rds to be conservative.So the question is not about the yardage or the catches then, but more about the TDs, right? Boldin was the only Top 24 WR last year not to have 6 TDs except for AJ, who had 5. So Boldin (4) had the fewest.Fitz was hurt part of 2006, but he was still WR 24.Compare them again to the next most prolific duo (possibly trio) of WRs and Carson Palmer in Cincy. Palmer through 28 TDs, 25 to his WRs (CJ 7, Henry 9, Housh 9) - so nearly all of his TDs (25 of 28) went to his WRs.There are two other duos in the Top 24 from the same team - RoyW and Furrey from Detroit - who had 7 and 6 TDs from Kitna's 21 (13 of 21, again close to 2/3rds) and also TO and TGlenn who had 13 and 6 each (from Romo and Bledsoe - who combined for 26 - again, 19 of 26 is close to 2/3rds).So if Leinart can put up 20 TDs, I'd expect 13-14 TDs for Boldin and Fitz combined. That's my expectation on the low end, with no degradation in their yardage or catches.

Great stuff JP...If Leinart tosses 20 TD...and 14 of them go to the WR...I would pencil in Fitz for 8-10 of them and Boldin for 4-6 max...so what I said was partly true. I do see a dip in catches for Boldin though. Bryant Johnson is going to catch more balls. Look at Pittsburgh last season and how many different WR were involved. IIRC they had 4 different WR with 30+ catches, probably the only team in the NFL to produce that. I think Johnson is going to be getting more looks as this is his contract year and they are going to want to see what they got. If they could move Boldin and Johnson is good enough(I think he is) to compliment Fitz, this would allow them to upgrade the defense or OL perhaps...maybe through a trade. I feel Johnson has a strong chance to log 40-50 catches this seaosn and I see Boldin maybe sliding to 70-80 with 1,000 yds and 4-6 TD...where does that rank in everyone's redraft leagues? Probably borderline top20. Things happen and not everyone logs the same stats year after year unless your name is Marvin Harrison...lets at least be open to the idea that Boldin might slide a little instead of always assuming the best case scenario.

It's hard to follow your train of thought.1. Green forced the ball to Fitz.2.Boldin had 100 catches, 50 (1/2 season), then 100 again, then 83 (due to the new qb/team struggles). So in 4 years he's averaging 6.2 catches a game. 3. The playbook helped Boldin get his 100 catch a year pace the last 4 years? I thought you said Green showcased Fitz.4. Green's "playbook" helped no one. Which is why he fired the OC then got fired himself.5. Different coach = less receptions? Why do we "have" to assume that?6. Coach who showcased Fitz leaves, shouldn't we be more worried about his production dropping?But Boldin is going to be the one who's production drops off? I thought you said Fitz was force fed the ball by Green. If Fitz isn't force fed anymore, I'd assume that means Boldin should see a jump in RZ looks? Trading Boldin? Huh? I don't see that happening.Steelers spread the ball around because they had to. Whisenhunt has never had this much talent to work with. Grimm will have a rough go, but there is some o-line talent there.The only real concern I see is Leinart being a bust. If you're really down on Leinart, then I'd be worried. But Whisenhunt has a history of working with young QBs (Big Ben) so he has a history of success, and Leinart has talent. They have massive amounts of talent on the offensive side, and a fairly bad defense. Green ran a garbage system, and if anything the sky is the limit for this offense.

 

[Tau837]

So both WRs have the yardage, and now we have a new HC, but it's still Leinart, Boldin and Fitz.

The comparisons to Indy would be a good place to start. I'm not comparing the 3-some to Peyton-Wayne-Harrison on a skill level - but look at the TD production.

Manning had 31 TD passes. Harrison 12, Wayne 9. That's 21 of 31. Just about 2/3rds.

Now look at Leinart - 11 TDs, 3 to Boldin and 4 to Fitz. 7 out of 11. Just about 2/3rds. And yes, Fitz was out a few of Leinart's starts, but let's stick with 2/3rds to be conservative.

So the question is not about the yardage or the catches then, but more about the TDs, right?

Boldin was the only Top 24 WR last year not to have 6 TDs except for AJ, who had 5. So Boldin (4) had the fewest.

Fitz was hurt part of 2006, but he was still WR 24.

Compare them again to the next most prolific duo (possibly trio) of WRs and Carson Palmer in Cincy. Palmer through 28 TDs, 25 to his WRs (CJ 7, Henry 9, Housh 9) - so nearly all of his TDs (25 of 28) went to his WRs.

There are two other duos in the Top 24 from the same team - RoyW and Furrey from Detroit - who had 7 and 6 TDs from Kitna's 21 (13 of 21, again close to 2/3rds) and also TO and TGlenn who had 13 and 6 each (from Romo and Bledsoe - who combined for 26 - again, 19 of 26 is close to 2/3rds).

So if Leinart can put up 20 TDs, I'd expect 13-14 TDs for Boldin and Fitz combined. That's my expectation on the low end, with no degradation in their yardage or catches.

Great stuff JP...If Leinart tosses 20 TD...and 14 of them go to the WR...I would pencil in Fitz for 8-10 of them and Boldin for 4-6 max...so what I said was partly true. I do see a dip in catches for Boldin though. Bryant Johnson is going to catch more balls. Look at Pittsburgh last season and how many different WR were involved. IIRC they had 4 different WR with 30+ catches, probably the only team in the NFL to produce that. I think Johnson is going to be getting more looks as this is his contract year and they are going to want to see what they got. If they could move Boldin and Johnson is good enough(I think he is) to compliment Fitz, this would allow them to upgrade the defense or OL perhaps...maybe through a trade. I feel Johnson has a strong chance to log 40-50 catches this seaosn and I see Boldin maybe sliding to 70-80 with 1,000 yds and 4-6 TD...where does that rank in everyone's redraft leagues? Probably borderline top20.

Things happen and not everyone logs the same stats year after year unless your name is Marvin Harrison...lets at least be open to the idea that Boldin might slide a little instead of always assuming the best case scenario.

Yes, look at Pittsburgh. They did not have two talents at WR like Fitz and Boldin. Boldin is one of the top 10-15 WRs in the league in terms of talent, and you're suggesting that the new coaching staff will consciously choose to use that talent less in favor of throwing more to a player who can at best be described as average. Do you really think that makes sense?On top of that, assuming he is healthy and plays all 16 games:

He has averaged 98 catches per 16 games, and you're projecting 70-80... that is a huge dropoff, and he's in his prime. I think you are way low here.

You cited his ypr earlier in the thread. He averaged 14.5 ypr last season. His career average is 13.5 but is dragged down by the season he injured his knee, missed training camp, and came back at less than 100%... if you ignore that season, he has averaged 13.9 ypr in the other 3, a bit better, and his average has gone up each of those other 3 seasons. So IMO your ypr looks low.

Also if you ignore that same injury season, he has averaged 6.6 TDs per 16 games, a small improvement over his career average. And as Jeff Pasquino pointed out earlier in the thread, his TDs have nowhere to go but up. So your TDs also seem low, completing the trifecta.

Then we have the recent news that the coaching staff will look to get him involved in running the ball, gadget plays, etc., a la Ward and Randle El. That may not make a big difference, but it sure doesn't hurt.

He has only played with a good passing game once in 4 years, in 2005. He had 102/1402/7 that season. This year, with a likely improvements in OL and QB play, should be the second best passing game he will have played with.

If he is healthy, I can't see less than 1300 total yards. And I think 6 TDs is conservative, with very little downside there but definite upside.

 

[Buttmonkey]

First four seasons

Harrison - 310 recpetions for 4141 yards and 33 TDs

Boldin - 342 receptions for 4605 yards and 20 TDs

Hmmm, me thinks Boldin

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So both WRs have the yardage, and now we have a new HC, but it's still Leinart, Boldin and Fitz.

The comparisons to Indy would be a good place to start. I'm not comparing the 3-some to Peyton-Wayne-Harrison on a skill level - but look at the TD production.

Manning had 31 TD passes. Harrison 12, Wayne 9. That's 21 of 31. Just about 2/3rds.

Now look at Leinart - 11 TDs, 3 to Boldin and 4 to Fitz. 7 out of 11. Just about 2/3rds. And yes, Fitz was out a few of Leinart's starts, but let's stick with 2/3rds to be conservative.

So the question is not about the yardage or the catches then, but more about the TDs, right?

Boldin was the only Top 24 WR last year not to have 6 TDs except for AJ, who had 5. So Boldin (4) had the fewest.

Fitz was hurt part of 2006, but he was still WR 24.

Compare them again to the next most prolific duo (possibly trio) of WRs and Carson Palmer in Cincy. Palmer through 28 TDs, 25 to his WRs (CJ 7, Henry 9, Housh 9) - so nearly all of his TDs (25 of 28) went to his WRs.

There are two other duos in the Top 24 from the same team - RoyW and Furrey from Detroit - who had 7 and 6 TDs from Kitna's 21 (13 of 21, again close to 2/3rds) and also TO and TGlenn who had 13 and 6 each (from Romo and Bledsoe - who combined for 26 - again, 19 of 26 is close to 2/3rds).

So if Leinart can put up 20 TDs, I'd expect 13-14 TDs for Boldin and Fitz combined. That's my expectation on the low end, with no degradation in their yardage or catches.

Great stuff JP...If Leinart tosses 20 TD...and 14 of them go to the WR...I would pencil in Fitz for 8-10 of them and Boldin for 4-6 max...so what I said was partly true. I do see a dip in catches for Boldin though. Bryant Johnson is going to catch more balls. Look at Pittsburgh last season and how many different WR were involved. IIRC they had 4 different WR with 30+ catches, probably the only team in the NFL to produce that. I think Johnson is going to be getting more looks as this is his contract year and they are going to want to see what they got. If they could move Boldin and Johnson is good enough(I think he is) to compliment Fitz, this would allow them to upgrade the defense or OL perhaps...maybe through a trade. I feel Johnson has a strong chance to log 40-50 catches this seaosn and I see Boldin maybe sliding to 70-80 with 1,000 yds and 4-6 TD...where does that rank in everyone's redraft leagues? Probably borderline top20.

Things happen and not everyone logs the same stats year after year unless your name is Marvin Harrison...lets at least be open to the idea that Boldin might slide a little instead of always assuming the best case scenario.

It's hard to follow your train of thought. Welcome to the Shark Pool1. Green forced the ball to Fitz.

2.Boldin had 100 catches, 50 (1/2 season), then 100 again, then 83 (due to the new qb/team struggles). So in 4 years he's averaging 6.2 catches a game.

3. The playbook helped Boldin get his 100 catch a year pace the last 4 years? I thought you said Green showcased Fitz.

4. Green's "playbook" helped no one. Which is why he fired the OC then got fired himself.

5. Different coach = less receptions? Why do we "have" to assume that?

6. Coach who showcased Fitz leaves, shouldn't we be more worried about his production dropping?

But Boldin is going to be the one who's production drops off? I thought you said Fitz was force fed the ball by Green. If Fitz isn't force fed anymore, I'd assume that means Boldin should see a jump in RZ looks?

Trading Boldin? Huh? I don't see that happening.

Steelers spread the ball around because they had to. Whisenhunt has never had this much talent to work with. Grimm will have a rough go, but there is some o-line talent there.

The only real concern I see is Leinart being a bust. If you're really down on Leinart, then I'd be worried. But Whisenhunt has a history of working with young QBs (Big Ben) so he has a history of success, and Leinart has talent. They have massive amounts of talent on the offensive side, and a fairly bad defense. Green ran a garbage system, and if anything the sky is the limit for this offense.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So both WRs have the yardage, and now we have a new HC, but it's still Leinart, Boldin and Fitz.

The comparisons to Indy would be a good place to start. I'm not comparing the 3-some to Peyton-Wayne-Harrison on a skill level - but look at the TD production.

Manning had 31 TD passes. Harrison 12, Wayne 9. That's 21 of 31. Just about 2/3rds.

Now look at Leinart - 11 TDs, 3 to Boldin and 4 to Fitz. 7 out of 11. Just about 2/3rds. And yes, Fitz was out a few of Leinart's starts, but let's stick with 2/3rds to be conservative.

So the question is not about the yardage or the catches then, but more about the TDs, right?

Boldin was the only Top 24 WR last year not to have 6 TDs except for AJ, who had 5. So Boldin (4) had the fewest.

Fitz was hurt part of 2006, but he was still WR 24.

Compare them again to the next most prolific duo (possibly trio) of WRs and Carson Palmer in Cincy. Palmer through 28 TDs, 25 to his WRs (CJ 7, Henry 9, Housh 9) - so nearly all of his TDs (25 of 28) went to his WRs.

There are two other duos in the Top 24 from the same team - RoyW and Furrey from Detroit - who had 7 and 6 TDs from Kitna's 21 (13 of 21, again close to 2/3rds) and also TO and TGlenn who had 13 and 6 each (from Romo and Bledsoe - who combined for 26 - again, 19 of 26 is close to 2/3rds).

So if Leinart can put up 20 TDs, I'd expect 13-14 TDs for Boldin and Fitz combined. That's my expectation on the low end, with no degradation in their yardage or catches.

Great stuff JP...If Leinart tosses 20 TD...and 14 of them go to the WR...I would pencil in Fitz for 8-10 of them and Boldin for 4-6 max...so what I said was partly true. I do see a dip in catches for Boldin though. Bryant Johnson is going to catch more balls. Look at Pittsburgh last season and how many different WR were involved. IIRC they had 4 different WR with 30+ catches, probably the only team in the NFL to produce that. I think Johnson is going to be getting more looks as this is his contract year and they are going to want to see what they got. If they could move Boldin and Johnson is good enough(I think he is) to compliment Fitz, this would allow them to upgrade the defense or OL perhaps...maybe through a trade. I feel Johnson has a strong chance to log 40-50 catches this seaosn and I see Boldin maybe sliding to 70-80 with 1,000 yds and 4-6 TD...where does that rank in everyone's redraft leagues? Probably borderline top20.

Things happen and not everyone logs the same stats year after year unless your name is Marvin Harrison...lets at least be open to the idea that Boldin might slide a little instead of always assuming the best case scenario.

Yes, look at Pittsburgh. They did not have two talents at WR like Fitz and Boldin. Boldin is one of the top 10-15 WRs in the league in terms of talent, and you're suggesting that the new coaching staff will consciously choose to use that talent less in favor of throwing more to a player who can at best be described as average. Do you really think that makes sense?On top of that, assuming he is healthy and plays all 16 games:

He has averaged 98 catches per 16 games, and you're projecting 70-80... that is a huge dropoff, and he's in his prime. I think you are way low here.

You cited his ypr earlier in the thread. He averaged 14.5 ypr last season. His career average is 13.5 but is dragged down by the season he injured his knee, missed training camp, and came back at less than 100%... if you ignore that season, he has averaged 13.9 ypr in the other 3, a bit better, and his average has gone up each of those other 3 seasons. So IMO your ypr looks low.

Also if you ignore that same injury season, he has averaged 6.6 TDs per 16 games, a small improvement over his career average. And as Jeff Pasquino pointed out earlier in the thread, his TDs have nowhere to go but up. So your TDs also seem low, completing the trifecta.

Then we have the recent news that the coaching staff will look to get him involved in running the ball, gadget plays, etc., a la Ward and Randle El. That may not make a big difference, but it sure doesn't hurt.

He has only played with a good passing game once in 4 years, in 2005. He had 102/1402/7 that season. This year, with a likely improvements in OL and QB play, should be the second best passing game he will have played with.

If he is healthy, I can't see less than 1300 total yards. And I think 6 TDs is conservative, with very little downside there but definite upside.

Uh oh...I might have to reconsider with that 2nd round pick I have in a week...you make a really strong case and I'm not stroking you. I wanted to see the best we could come up with and this is pretty strong. I especially like how you removed his injury year before you adjusted the ypc, that was a seriously good move. Made a great comparison with Boldin and Fitz to Ward and Holmes, that was strong. Not sure you really upped the TD total too much but this a very strong post and I will have to relook at this situation now.

 

[3nOut]

I also find it hard to see both Fitz and Boldin in the top ten, especially when you have other WR tandems that are better and may not have both inthe top 10 (Harrison/Wayne and JOhnson/Housh). I think that Fitz may be top 10 (and definitely a FF WR1) but Boldin will be top 15-20 (making him a solid FF WR2). IMO, the higher Fitz finishes, the lower Boldin will. In a few years when Leinart gets a little more experience, they both may end up top 10.

That said, I still think Leinart will have a good season, especially with the schedule they have and if they can get their TE (Pope) involved more and get Edge some more receiving TDs. I see some nice stats for Leinart this season and only get better in years to come.

 

[greeklightnin]

I keep seeing mention of Bryant Johnson being a factor here. He's a 3rd WR who can easily be replaced.

" I think Johnson is going to be getting more looks as this is his contract year and they are going to want to see what they got. If they could move Boldin and Johnson is good enough(I think he is) to compliment Fitz, this would allow them to upgrade the defense or OL perhaps...maybe through a trade. I feel Johnson has a strong chance to log 40-50 catches this seaosn and I see Boldin maybe sliding to 70-80 with 1,000 yds and 4-6 TD...where does that rank in everyone's redraft leagues? Probably borderline top20."

Trading Boldin b/c they have Bryant Johnson as a suitable replacement is crazy talk. They saw what he could do this year when Fitz when down and that was diddly-poo.

My next point is Boldin was taken out of their red-zone packages by Green last year. That partially explains his low TDs this past year. I dont expect that to happen with Whiz running the show.

 

[Tau837]

My next point is Boldin was taken out of their red-zone packages by Green last year. That partially explains his low TDs this past year. I dont expect that to happen with Whiz running the show.

Good info.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

New offense is difficult

Leinart is a 2nd year QB, already going to learn a new offense...something has to give and I'll offer some early thoughts.

1. They will love to run the football under Grimm and Whisen...not sure they would be a power run team but when the playbook gets confusing its always easier to hand off and get a body on a body and block. Football is really a simple game when you think about it. if you do not have the football in your hands, you are either blocking or tackling...one of the two basically.

2. I know the board loves Fitz, I do too. ANd I really think he has more talent than Boldin but Anquan works his tail off and really runs hard after the catch...something has to give. I would put my money on Fitz to maintain in the top10 but I really think Boldin could see a decrease in his workload a bit. What if Boldin only catches 70-80 balls and puts up 4-6 TD...where does that rank him on your roster? Can you not get just as much production from L.Coles 4-5 rounds later? I'm just asking questions.

And to everyone that is investing a high pick in Leinart...I don't see it yet.

Here is the article.

Matt Leinart considered finding the right analogy, and finally, he turned to a subject he hated in school: math.

Then the Cardinals quarterback tried to simply explain what it was like to learn a new offense.

“Say you are getting OK in algebra,” Leinart said after a voluntary organized team activity last week. “Then you are going into advance geometry. It’s still math — but a completely different language.

“It is difficult.”

With a new coach comes a new offense. That was a given once the Cards hired Ken Whisenhunt in January. Since mid-April, when the team held its initial minicamp, Whisenhunt has already repeated three installations of the base package, including during the current voluntary workouts.

Whisenhunt’s system isn’t as wordy and complex as say, Jon Gruden’s West Coast mindbender out in Tampa Bay.

But repetition is important, as is Whisenhunt’s plan to keep it “pretty basic.”

“You can’t throw (all of) it in their face and expect them to process it right away,” Whisenhunt said.

For instance, the Cardinals have yet to put in the red zone and two-minute portions of the offense. Still, Whisenhunt has been happy with how the team has picked up the concepts and how its has executed them during practice. The trepidation of the key players has also begun to subside. Wide receiver Anquan Boldin said players are concerned not only about learning the playbook but also how they will be used within the system. NFL teams can only have so many offensive concepts. A run off-tackle is a run offtackle, a post pattern a post pattern.

So players begin the transition from one offense to another by equating the previous playbook’s plays to the new playbook, slowly learning the new language. Receiver Larry Fitzgerald said Whisenhunt’s system contains code words, while former coach Dennis Green preferred numbers much of the time. Green’s offense would also flip-flop numbers based on protections.

“This is a little easier, I think,” Fitzgerald said.

That should help the oft-criticized offense line, which struggled much of last season in part because blocking schemes were not always properly developed. Tackle Oliver Ross, who played under Whisenhunt in Pittsburgh, said the system is designed to narrow a specific lineman’s duties to one of a couple of spots each play. Breaking plays down that way, rookie tackle Levi Brown added, makes the originally daunting playbook much more simple to digest. Of course, learning the plays in the classroom and pulling them off on the field are different.

“When you are home (studying), you get to really think about it,” Boldin said. “As opposed to being in the huddle, hearing a play called, having a quick pace and everyone hustling around and moving.”

The Cardinals continue their organized team activities Tuesday. Eleven remain, and with the continuing work on putting in the playbook, players’ participation, Boldin acknowledged, is “one of those voluntary, non-voluntary kind of things.”

Whisenhunt, though, insisted the process is not designed to force players to be around for non-mandatory work. It’s simply the way it patterns out. “We don’t like to slow down in training camp,” Whisenhunt said. “That’s where you find out about these guys as far as competition goes. “For them to have their best chance, you’d like to be familiar to the system.”

That’s what the past month — and the next three weeks — are about.

“I liked last year’s offense,” Leinart said. “But I think in this one … things are just simplified, for the quarterback and the offense. “It is better. You aren’t trying to overanalyze things.”

I think Matt feels like he was learning a pretty complex offense last season and this will be simpler. Simple offenses don't typically have super spectacular passing stats do they? Indy, St Louis, those teams have had pretty complex offenses and they put up major yds in the pass attack. A simple offense to me means they are getting back to basics...basics=blocking...blocking=running the ball more IMO.