Baseball Prospectus predicts 88 wins for the Rays (1 Viewer)

[Capella]

I love the Rays, but no way do I see 88 wins this year. I'll go with 78.

Baseball history is littered with premature declarations about the rising hopes of young teams. There were, for instance, the 1987 Indians, of whom Sports Illustrated famously proclaimed, "Believe it! Cleveland is the best team in the American League!" (The Tribe finished 37 games out of first place.)Baseball Prospectus is not prepared to call the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays the best team in the AL, but its PECOTA projection system, which precisely predicted the White Sox' stunning 18-win falloff last season, forecasts an 88-74 finish for baseball's perennial bottom-feeders, a 22-win jump from 2007.Forget about the '87 Indians; the relevant team to consider here is the '94 Tribe, which reversed a string of seven consecutive losing seasons by going 66-47 in a strike-shortened season. Like those Indians, who went on to win five straight division titles behind such rising stars as Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome, the Rays have plenty of young mashers. Carl Crawford, Carlos Peña and B.J. Upton (all of them in their 20s) are already offensive stars. Third baseman Evan Longoria, BP's third-ranked prospect, won't be far behind; PECOTA projects a Ryan Zimmerman-caliber performance of 20 to 25 homers accompanied by Gold Glove-quality defense. Couple that with long-awaited mound reinforcements -- hard-throwing Matt Garza, acquired from the Twins in the Delmon Young deal, will help immediately, and elite prospects David Price, Jacob McGee and Wade Davis could follow by season's end -- and it's clear that these aren't your father's Rays.It's in the field, though, that the Rays will make their biggest gains. According to BP's Fielding Runs above Average (FRAA), the Rays gave up 72 more runs than an average defense last season. Of that total, 56 resulted from poor middle-infield play as the Rays rotated overmatched utilitymen Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson at shortstop and saw Upton commit 12 errors in just 48 games at second before moving him to centerfield. But the acquisition of slick-fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett in the Young trade and the move of sure-handed Aki Iwamura from third to second (to make room for Longoria) has stabilized the infield. As a result the Rays' defense projects to be 10 runs above average this year, an 82-run improvement, which will allow the improved rotation to work through its innings more efficiently. It's audacious to project an increase of 22 wins for any club, but when this much young talent coalesces so quickly, it's time to believe.

 

[Eephus]

Baseball history is littered with premature declarations about the rising hopes of young teams.

yeah, if I had a quarter for every time Durocher and Stengel used that sentence

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

I'll give them 80 or so but wouldn't be surprised to see them up there. If the bullpen holds up, they have the talent everywhere else.

 

[pollardsvision]

they can definitely win 80 games.

 

[The Ref]

If the rotation can stay healthy, this team could win every bit of 88 games.

 

[DropKick]

I would love to see more parity in baseball, especially in the AL East. But 88 wins in that division for Tampa, with their Ace already having elbow trouble?

I'll take the under on 88 wins.

 

[SKribbles]

I would love to see more parity in baseball, especially in the AL East. But 88 wins in that division for Tampa, with their Ace already having elbow trouble?

I'll take the under on 88 wins.

So true. Isn't it something like 18 games vs every team in your division? Almost a third of their games are Yanks, Sox and Jays makes it tough to believe they could win 80.

 

[TheWick]

Forget about the '87 Indians; the relevant team to consider here is the '94 Tribe, which reversed a string of seven consecutive losing seasons by going 66-47 in a strike-shortened season. Like those Indians, who went on to win five straight division titles behind such rising stars as Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome, the Rays have plenty of young mashers. Carl Crawford, Carlos Peña and B.J. Upton (all of them in their 20s) are already offensive stars. Third baseman Evan Longoria, BP's third-ranked prospect, won't be far behind; PECOTA projects a Ryan Zimmerman-caliber performance of 20 to 25 homers accompanied by Gold Glove-quality defense. Couple that with long-awaited mound reinforcements -- hard-throwing Matt Garza, acquired from the Twins in the Delmon Young deal, will help immediately, and elite prospects David Price, Jacob McGee and Wade Davis could follow by season's end -- and it's clear that these aren't your father's Rays.

Does this line seem a little ridiculous to anyone else? I mean this will be there 10th season

 

[tikigods]

I would agree with 88 wins if Kazmir was healthy. Their line up is improved, their pitching staff is good and has depth with their rising young pitchers. My only concern in the bullpen with aging Percival and Reyes closing out games. Dan Wheeler could be a solid part so long as he doesn't implode.

Much improved from the days of Chuck LaMar.

 

[Capella]

Forget about the '87 Indians; the relevant team to consider here is the '94 Tribe, which reversed a string of seven consecutive losing seasons by going 66-47 in a strike-shortened season. Like those Indians, who went on to win five straight division titles behind such rising stars as Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome, the Rays have plenty of young mashers. Carl Crawford, Carlos Peña and B.J. Upton (all of them in their 20s) are already offensive stars. Third baseman Evan Longoria, BP's third-ranked prospect, won't be far behind; PECOTA projects a Ryan Zimmerman-caliber performance of 20 to 25 homers accompanied by Gold Glove-quality defense. Couple that with long-awaited mound reinforcements -- hard-throwing Matt Garza, acquired from the Twins in the Delmon Young deal, will help immediately, and elite prospects David Price, Jacob McGee and Wade Davis could follow by season's end -- and it's clear that these aren't your father's Rays.

Does this line seem a little ridiculous to anyone else? I mean this will be there 10th season

 

[shadyridr]

I would agree with 88 wins if Kazmir was healthy. Their line up is improved, their pitching staff is good and has depth with their rising young pitchers. My only concern in the bullpen with aging Percival and Reyes closing out games. Dan Wheeler could be a solid part so long as he doesn't implode.

Much improved from the days of Chuck LaMar.

how?

 

[Tom Servo]

I would love to see more parity in baseball, especially in the AL East. But 88 wins in that division for Tampa, with their Ace already having elbow trouble?

I'll take the under on 88 wins.

Couple that with 6 games each against Cleveland, Detroit, and LA, you've got 72 total games against the top teams in the AL. Better do a good job of whipping up on the Orioles, Royals, and A's.I'll also take the under on 88 wins.

 

[Capella]

I would agree with 88 wins if Kazmir was healthy. Their line up is improved, their pitching staff is good and has depth with their rising young pitchers. My only concern in the bullpen with aging Percival and Reyes closing out games. Dan Wheeler could be a solid part so long as he doesn't implode.

Much improved from the days of Chuck LaMar.

how?

Longoria >>>>>>> Brendan Harris or Josh Wilson (who he is replacing in the lineup).Bartlett should also be better than one of those guys.

It's reasonable to expect the Floyd/Gomes duo to out-produce Delmon's replacement-level production from last year.

Navarro showed a lot of progress in the second-half last year.

And if Rocco stays healthy (big if obviously) then they'll get a lot out of the defunct DH spot from last year. Also not unreasonable to expect Iwamura to be a tick better.

Really the only guy who should have a decrease in numbers is Pena.

 

[Darth Cheney]

That article was included in a SI article about the "can't miss" caliber of Evan Longoria (which itself referenced back to the "can't miss" article in 2007 about Young and Dukes). That being said, barring any setbacks, these Rays are going to be a force in the division sooner than later. 22 wins is a lot though. Does this mean BP isn't as high on the Yanks or RedSox?

 

[Keys Myaths]

That article was included in a SI article about the "can't miss" caliber of Evan Longoria (which itself referenced back to the "can't miss" article in 2007 about Young and Dukes). That being said, barring any setbacks, these Rays are going to be a force in the division sooner than later. 22 wins is a lot though. Does this mean BP isn't as high on the Yanks or RedSox?

They're fairly high on both. Yankees win 97, Boston wins 91.Toronto's under .500, and Baltimore is TERRIBLE.Not sure how comfortable I am giving huge specifics on subscriber content at BP, but the TB projection makes sense among all the others.

 

[Keys Myaths]

By the way, the updated projections have TB at 89 wins, not 88.

 

[Darth Cheney]

That article was included in a SI article about the "can't miss" caliber of Evan Longoria (which itself referenced back to the "can't miss" article in 2007 about Young and Dukes). That being said, barring any setbacks, these Rays are going to be a force in the division sooner than later. 22 wins is a lot though. Does this mean BP isn't as high on the Yanks or RedSox?

They're fairly high on both. Yankees win 97, Boston wins 91.Toronto's under .500, and Baltimore is TERRIBLE.Not sure how comfortable I am giving huge specifics on subscriber content at BP, but the TB projection makes sense among all the others.

That seems like alot of wins for one division....particularly when there are at least three legit World Series contenders in the other divisions.

 

[Keys Myaths]

That article was included in a SI article about the "can't miss" caliber of Evan Longoria (which itself referenced back to the "can't miss" article in 2007 about Young and Dukes). That being said, barring any setbacks, these Rays are going to be a force in the division sooner than later. 22 wins is a lot though. Does this mean BP isn't as high on the Yanks or RedSox?

They're fairly high on both. Yankees win 97, Boston wins 91.Toronto's under .500, and Baltimore is TERRIBLE.Not sure how comfortable I am giving huge specifics on subscriber content at BP, but the TB projection makes sense among all the others.

That seems like alot of wins for one division....particularly when there are at least three legit World Series contenders in the other divisions.

The AL West is bad this year. Really bad.So is the bottom of the AL Central.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

97 for the Yanks, huh?

That would make me very happy

 

[Capella]

97 for the Yanks, huh?That would make me very happy

Yea that's kind of what has my enthusiasm tempered. I don't see them having a 97-win team.

 

[Reaper]

100 Losses

:countdown:

 

[Tremendous Upside]

97 for the Yanks, huh?That would make me very happy

Yea that's kind of what has my enthusiasm tempered. I don't see them having a 97-win team.

It's really hard to project the team's performance this coming year b/c of the young pitching and the ?? about their IPs

 

[Eephus]

A .500 season would be a milestone

 

[shadyridr]

97 for the Yanks, huh?That would make me very happy

Yea that's kind of what has my enthusiasm tempered. I don't see them having a 97-win team.

Me neither. Im thinking 90

 

[shadyridr]

I would agree with 88 wins if Kazmir was healthy. Their line up is improved, their pitching staff is good and has depth with their rising young pitchers. My only concern in the bullpen with aging Percival and Reyes closing out games. Dan Wheeler could be a solid part so long as he doesn't implode.

Much improved from the days of Chuck LaMar.

how?

Longoria >>>>>>> Brendan Harris or Josh Wilson (who he is replacing in the lineup).Bartlett should also be better than one of those guys.

It's reasonable to expect the Floyd/Gomes duo to out-produce Delmon's replacement-level production from last year.

Navarro showed a lot of progress in the second-half last year.

And if Rocco stays healthy (big if obviously) then they'll get a lot out of the defunct DH spot from last year. Also not unreasonable to expect Iwamura to be a tick better.

Really the only guy who should have a decrease in numbers is Pena.

Ill give you Longoria. But I dont know how much better Bartlett will be than Harris. Thats a lateral move IMO. And theres no way you can convince me that Floyd/Gomes is an improvement over Young. Plus add the probable decline of Pena and Upton (I read something about his BABIP was way higher than it shouldve been. So many expect a decline in BA for him although he should still be a stud.) Anyway, its a solid lineup but I dont think one that improved much at all.

 

[Sammy3469]

97 for the Yanks, huh?That would make me very happy

Yea that's kind of what has my enthusiasm tempered. I don't see them having a 97-win team.

It's really hard to project the team's performance this coming year b/c of the young pitching and the ?? about their IPs

The Yankees projection is more than a little misleading though. They basically have a whole bunch of guys sitting on the precipice of collapsing, but holding on one more year. For instance, they love Jeter this year, but there's a decent shot that his age starts to catch up to him which doesn't get fully reflected in the 97 win number.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I love the Rays, but no way do I see 88 wins this year. I'll go with 78.

Baseball history is littered with premature declarations about the rising hopes of young teams. There were, for instance, the 1987 Indians, of whom Sports Illustrated famously proclaimed, "Believe it! Cleveland is the best team in the American League!" (The Tribe finished 37 games out of first place.)Baseball Prospectus is not prepared to call the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays the best team in the AL, but its PECOTA projection system, which precisely predicted the White Sox' stunning 18-win falloff last season, forecasts an 88-74 finish for baseball's perennial bottom-feeders, a 22-win jump from 2007.Forget about the '87 Indians; the relevant team to consider here is the '94 Tribe, which reversed a string of seven consecutive losing seasons by going 66-47 in a strike-shortened season. Like those Indians, who went on to win five straight division titles behind such rising stars as Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome, the Rays have plenty of young mashers. Carl Crawford, Carlos Peña and B.J. Upton (all of them in their 20s) are already offensive stars. Third baseman Evan Longoria, BP's third-ranked prospect, won't be far behind; PECOTA projects a Ryan Zimmerman-caliber performance of 20 to 25 homers accompanied by Gold Glove-quality defense. Couple that with long-awaited mound reinforcements -- hard-throwing Matt Garza, acquired from the Twins in the Delmon Young deal, will help immediately, and elite prospects David Price, Jacob McGee and Wade Davis could follow by season's end -- and it's clear that these aren't your father's Rays.It's in the field, though, that the Rays will make their biggest gains. According to BP's Fielding Runs above Average (FRAA), the Rays gave up 72 more runs than an average defense last season. Of that total, 56 resulted from poor middle-infield play as the Rays rotated overmatched utilitymen Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson at shortstop and saw Upton commit 12 errors in just 48 games at second before moving him to centerfield. But the acquisition of slick-fielding shortstop Jason Bartlett in the Young trade and the move of sure-handed Aki Iwamura from third to second (to make room for Longoria) has stabilized the infield. As a result the Rays' defense projects to be 10 runs above average this year, an 82-run improvement, which will allow the improved rotation to work through its innings more efficiently. It's audacious to project an increase of 22 wins for any club, but when this much young talent coalesces so quickly, it's time to believe.

No way with the Yanks and Red Sox to play so many times...Also, Toronto is not bad.

 

[Liquid Tension]

97 for the Yanks, huh?That would make me very happy

Yea that's kind of what has my enthusiasm tempered. I don't see them having a 97-win team.

Me neither. Im thinking 90

The Yankees are very hard to predict this year. As noted in another thread, the Yanks offense will take a small drop with expected decreases in Posada and ARod, but with some others increasing the drop off should be very modest. The Yankees pitching should be better, but how much is hard to say.All year long last year I was in the minority saying how the Yanks were very unlucky early on and they would turn it around (their runs scored to allowed showed them a lot better and their record in 1-run games was bad) and then things starting evening out in the 2nd half.The Yanks are better than last year, but a prediction for them has more variables than most teams. I am very confident the Yanks will win over 90 games and would expect them to be 93-96 wins.

 

[Keys Myaths]

LT>I like what you have to say in here, but your signature really annoys me.

 

[Liquid Tension]

97 for the Yanks, huh?That would make me very happy

Yea that's kind of what has my enthusiasm tempered. I don't see them having a 97-win team.

It's really hard to project the team's performance this coming year b/c of the young pitching and the ?? about their IPs

The Yankees projection is more than a little misleading though. They basically have a whole bunch of guys sitting on the precipice of collapsing, but holding on one more year. For instance, they love Jeter this year, but there's a decent shot that his age starts to catch up to him which doesn't get fully reflected in the 97 win number.

Who is really sitting on this precipice? Jeter is getting older, but was banged up most of last year and I wouldn't expect any significant drop off. At worst an 800 OPS. Posada will drop off (he almost has to). One would have to expect a drop off by ARod as well.But Abreu had an OPS of .918 in the 2nd half and I would expect his overall numbers to be higher than his .814 OPS last yearMatsui should hold his OPS about at the .850 mark from last year (had a .892 the 2nd half)Damon - Had an OPS of .814 in the 2nd half and I see at least a 30 point increase over last years .747.1st base shouldn't be any worseMelky shouldn't be any worse and is young enough to possibly show a surge in power (he does not hit lefties well)Cano - this is a guy who could really put up a monster year. he every tool you need except that he is a hacker. he got a little more patient in the 2nd half (60% more walks than the 1st half) and it showed as he put up a .953 OPS in the 2nd half of the year. He had an OPS of .841 last year and I see him having a 50 point increase in that number.Maybe I need to adjust my Yankee number up a little

 

[Liquid Tension]

LT>I like what you have to say in here, but your signature really annoys me.

What annoys you about the sig?I could add all my fantasy players if that makes you happier

 

[Sammy3469]

97 for the Yanks, huh?That would make me very happy

Yea that's kind of what has my enthusiasm tempered. I don't see them having a 97-win team.

It's really hard to project the team's performance this coming year b/c of the young pitching and the ?? about their IPs

The Yankees projection is more than a little misleading though. They basically have a whole bunch of guys sitting on the precipice of collapsing, but holding on one more year. For instance, they love Jeter this year, but there's a decent shot that his age starts to catch up to him which doesn't get fully reflected in the 97 win number.

Who is really sitting on this precipice? Jeter is getting older, but was banged up most of last year and I wouldn't expect any significant drop off. At worst an 800 OPS. Posada will drop off (he almost has to). One would have to expect a drop off by ARod as well.But Abreu had an OPS of .918 in the 2nd half and I would expect his overall numbers to be higher than his .814 OPS last yearMatsui should hold his OPS about at the .850 mark from last year (had a .892 the 2nd half)Damon - Had an OPS of .814 in the 2nd half and I see at least a 30 point increase over last years .747.1st base shouldn't be any worseMelky shouldn't be any worse and is young enough to possibly show a surge in power (he does not hit lefties well)Cano - this is a guy who could really put up a monster year. he every tool you need except that he is a hacker. he got a little more patient in the 2nd half (60% more walks than the 1st half) and it showed as he put up a .953 OPS in the 2nd half of the year. He had an OPS of .841 last year and I see him having a 50 point increase in that number.Maybe I need to adjust my Yankee number up a little

Well you really don't want to know what their average Jeter season is then...OPS of .771They have Abreu as the same as last year, Damon only slightly improved, Cano regressing, Melky not improving much if at all, Matsui regressing a little. The bigger issue is that they have Joba as the 20th best pitcher in baseball and pitching upwards of 150 innings. If he starts in the bullpen and stays there for awhile, a lot of his value goes down the drain and oyu're looking at 100 more innings of below replacement level production.

 

[Liquid Tension]

97 for the Yanks, huh?That would make me very happy

Yea that's kind of what has my enthusiasm tempered. I don't see them having a 97-win team.

It's really hard to project the team's performance this coming year b/c of the young pitching and the ?? about their IPs

The Yankees projection is more than a little misleading though. They basically have a whole bunch of guys sitting on the precipice of collapsing, but holding on one more year. For instance, they love Jeter this year, but there's a decent shot that his age starts to catch up to him which doesn't get fully reflected in the 97 win number.

Who is really sitting on this precipice? Jeter is getting older, but was banged up most of last year and I wouldn't expect any significant drop off. At worst an 800 OPS. Posada will drop off (he almost has to). One would have to expect a drop off by ARod as well.But Abreu had an OPS of .918 in the 2nd half and I would expect his overall numbers to be higher than his .814 OPS last yearMatsui should hold his OPS about at the .850 mark from last year (had a .892 the 2nd half)Damon - Had an OPS of .814 in the 2nd half and I see at least a 30 point increase over last years .747.1st base shouldn't be any worseMelky shouldn't be any worse and is young enough to possibly show a surge in power (he does not hit lefties well)Cano - this is a guy who could really put up a monster year. he every tool you need except that he is a hacker. he got a little more patient in the 2nd half (60% more walks than the 1st half) and it showed as he put up a .953 OPS in the 2nd half of the year. He had an OPS of .841 last year and I see him having a 50 point increase in that number.Maybe I need to adjust my Yankee number up a little

Well you really don't want to know what their average Jeter season is then...OPS of .771They have Abreu as the same as last year, Damon only slightly improved, Cano regressing, Melky not improving much if at all, Matsui regressing a little. The bigger issue is that they have Joba as the 20th best pitcher in baseball and pitching upwards of 150 innings. If he starts in the bullpen and stays there for awhile, a lot of his value goes down the drain and oyu're looking at 100 more innings of below replacement level production.

This is the problem with the work baseball prospectus does. It is not from watching the games, it is all from statistical progressions spitting out the numbers. Could they be right about Jeter...sure, but what in the world would make one feel that a guy who has only been below an OPS of .771 his rookie year (48 AB's, would all of a sudden drop so precipitously? That is an absurd projection and I almost feel that it must be wrong. In the last 5 years the worst Jeter has done is an OPS of .823 and the last two years were the best of the 5. Could I see a drop off, sure, but like I said .800 is the LOW end.Having Cano regress is a mistake. Hey, take my predictions and write them down and then compare later in the year. Come back and grill me. I write a Yankee blog/email that I have been sending out for many years and my predictions are out there for all to see and I review them at the end of the year. Out of all the big predictions I made last year, I was only wrong about one. I said that I would be shocked if Pettitte had an ERA below 4 and I expected around a 4.20-4.30. He didn't get below 4, but he was a lot better than I thought. (4.05 is where he finished). He was better than when he left the Yanks and I didn't expect that.Of course I only made 2 predictions

 

[Capella]

get this ####ing yankee bull#### out of my thread.

 

[Capella]

I would agree with 88 wins if Kazmir was healthy. Their line up is improved, their pitching staff is good and has depth with their rising young pitchers. My only concern in the bullpen with aging Percival and Reyes closing out games. Dan Wheeler could be a solid part so long as he doesn't implode.

Much improved from the days of Chuck LaMar.

how?

Longoria >>>>>>> Brendan Harris or Josh Wilson (who he is replacing in the lineup).Bartlett should also be better than one of those guys.

It's reasonable to expect the Floyd/Gomes duo to out-produce Delmon's replacement-level production from last year.

Navarro showed a lot of progress in the second-half last year.

And if Rocco stays healthy (big if obviously) then they'll get a lot out of the defunct DH spot from last year. Also not unreasonable to expect Iwamura to be a tick better.

Really the only guy who should have a decrease in numbers is Pena.

Ill give you Longoria. But I dont know how much better Bartlett will be than Harris. Thats a lateral move IMO. And theres no way you can convince me that Floyd/Gomes is an improvement over Young. Plus add the probable decline of Pena and Upton (I read something about his BABIP was way higher than it shouldve been. So many expect a decline in BA for him although he should still be a stud.) Anyway, its a solid lineup but I dont think one that improved much at all.

Harris was a bit fluky. Either way, Bartlett's main increase will come from the runs he will save defensively, but he should be on base at a good clip.I don't have to convince you Floyd/Gomes will outproduce what Young did last year. Just go look at his overwhelmingly mediocre numbers for yourself.

I'll be stunned if the Rays stay healthy and don't score significantly more runs than they did last year.

 

[greedygoat]

get this ####ing yankee bull#### out of my thread.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

The Tampa over/under (wins) has gone from 72 to 75.5. Is that move a result of the referenced article? And where do you think the line goes from here, given injuries, news and the like?

 

[Tremendous Upside]

The Tampa over/under (wins) has gone from 72 to 75.5. Is that move a result of the referenced article? And where do you think the line goes from here, given injuries, news and the like?

PossiblyThe Rays have been getting a ton of press (article in SI, commentary on ESPN, the article mentioned above, etc)...I bet they were booking a ton of overs...I think it will stay around 75.5, maybe move up a game...Think I still like the O, but not nearly as much as I did at 72

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

The Tampa over/under (wins) has gone from 72 to 75.5. Is that move a result of the referenced article? And where do you think the line goes from here, given injuries, news and the like?

PossiblyThe Rays have been getting a ton of press (article in SI, commentary on ESPN, the article mentioned above, etc)...I bet they were booking a ton of overs...I think it will stay around 75.5, maybe move up a game...Think I still like the O, but not nearly as much as I did at 72

Ironically enough, this may end up being a nice under. If the injury prognosis, which I know nothing about, ended up worse at some point, the under would be a GREAT play. Totals can take a little time to adjust to news like that, and I have to assume the best case scenarios have been applied.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

The Tampa over/under (wins) has gone from 72 to 75.5. Is that move a result of the referenced article? And where do you think the line goes from here, given injuries, news and the like?

PossiblyThe Rays have been getting a ton of press (article in SI, commentary on ESPN, the article mentioned above, etc)...I bet they were booking a ton of overs...I think it will stay around 75.5, maybe move up a game...Think I still like the O, but not nearly as much as I did at 72

Ironically enough, this may end up being a nice under. If the injury prognosis, which I know nothing about, ended up worse at some point, the under would be a GREAT play. Totals can take a little time to adjust to news like that, and I have to assume the best case scenarios have been applied.

Wish I had bet the over, could have had a decent middle there if I chose to go that route

 

[Sammy3469]

The Tampa over/under (wins) has gone from 72 to 75.5. Is that move a result of the referenced article? And where do you think the line goes from here, given injuries, news and the like?

I think its also in reference to the Bonds rumors...he's probably still worth a few runs a year as a DH by himself.

 

[Capella]

They've never even won 72 games. I would temper those over bets a little.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

They've never even won 72 games. I would temper those over bets a little.

True, but I think 72 was a very achievable #Jumping 3.5 games brings it much more into the realm of staying away, betting wise

 

[Knightro]

the defensive improvements alone are worth 3 wins.

Last year, the Rays defense gave up 71 more runs than the average defense allowed in baseball (thank you Baseball Prospectus)

Iwamura to 2nd, Bartlett at SS, Longoria at 3rd are going to make the 2008 pitching staff, and bullpen, look much better than they were last year.

I've been saying 85-77 for 3 months now. It is going to happen, and Cappy and I aren't letting you on the bandwagon. We've suffered together with this team way too damn long!

 

[Liquid Tension]

They've never even won 72 games. I would temper those over bets a little.

You just predicted 78 wins?

 

[TitusIII]

What do the saber-heads have to say regarding Shields? Was last year a fluke? I saw him live during his slump in July, and his stuff appeared to be filthy...but I'd like to hear some other opinions....

What is the projected rotation this year? Ideally three years from now?

 

[shadyridr]

They've never even won 72 games. I would temper those over bets a little.

You just predicted 78 wins?

He didnt put money on it

 

[Knightro]

What do the saber-heads have to say regarding Shields? Was last year a fluke? I saw him live during his slump in July, and his stuff appeared to be filthy...but I'd like to hear some other opinions....What is the projected rotation this year? Ideally three years from now?

Not a fluke, very sustainable. He added a cutter and improved his curve during the 2006 offseason and the results showed last year. Like most guys that feature a change (Hamels, Santana, etc), he is going to give up his share of longballs because the change doesn't always get down enough. However, Shields has great control and he keeps guys off base. Rotation in 20081. Kaz2. Shields3. Garza4. Sonnanstine5. JacksonNiemann will probably be the first guy up to replace ineffectiveness or injury, Price could very well make it up in the 2nd half.3 yrs from now, it all hinges upon Kaz re-signing. If the Rays can start winning, he'll stay. Here are the list of names that will be major league ready or in the majors in 3 yearsKazShieldsGarzaSonnanstineJacksonWade Davis (top 20 overall prospect)Jacob McGee (ditto)David Price (ditto)Jeremy Hellickson (sleeper)If Kaz leaves, then the rotation is Shields, Price, Garza, Davis, McGee. If he stays, McGee is the wildcard because he could be a solid power closer with his 94-98 FB and good slider.

 

[Capella]

They've never even won 72 games. I would temper those over bets a little.

You just predicted 78 wins?

I don't have money on it.Edit: or, I agree with shady

 

[Capella]

the defensive improvements alone are worth 3 wins.Last year, the Rays defense gave up 71 more runs than the average defense allowed in baseball (thank you Baseball Prospectus)Iwamura to 2nd, Bartlett at SS, Longoria at 3rd are going to make the 2008 pitching staff, and bullpen, look much better than they were last year.I've been saying 85-77 for 3 months now. It is going to happen, and Cappy and I aren't letting you on the bandwagon. We've suffered together with this team way too damn long!