What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Baseball Wagering (3 Viewers)

Charv: I will be looking to short Detroit, but mostly as larger favorites. I leaned Cleveland today, but didn't play it.
Click to expand...
why would you do that? I mean lean against Detroit? Don't you like the way they are playing? Do you think they will lose more from this point forward as big chalk?
Click to expand...
They are playing great. They have the most wins in baseball and are 31-9 in their last 40 games. I'm not looking at how they have played so far this year, I'm looking into the future here. They are hot. But, I like playing against good teams and I like playing bad teams. Detroit really can't play much better than they have been playing. Will they play .500 ball from here on out? No, probably better. But, they will be lined as large favorites down the stretch and I will get much better value fading them. The optimal play is when they are at home as a large chalk. Just like when the Royals were a "triple A" team and everyone wanted to fade them. They were pitiful. But could they play any worse? No, they were only getting better. Fast forward a few months - the Royals are the favorite tonight. Who would have thought?
Click to expand...
so, basically you are saying fade the winning teams in spots, and play the losing teams when they win. :thumbup: anyway, if that's your game, good luck with that. I prefer to put my money on good teams with good matchups, but that's just me.
Click to expand...
"Play the losing teams when they win" Well I don't know when they are going to win, but I do like to play teams that nobody wants (like KC a few months ago).I like to play bad teams, but you know it's all relative to price, espeiclaly in bases. If I saw Detroit +110 today I'd play them. If I saw Cleveland +110, I'd play them. It basically ALL depends on price to me.

I'm not going to go out of the way to fade Detroit in the upcoming weeks. If I see a nice price going against them when they are at home, then I'll certainly play them. If the market price is Detroit -180 and I have a book that is still sitting at Detroit -165, then no doubt I'll play Detroit.

I look to get good numbers on bad teams. End of story.

When you like to play "good teams" with good matchups what do you mean? Teams like Boston/Detroit/Chi Sox at small chalk? As a dog?
Click to expand...
Just what it sounds like. Good teams that will win! Here's the big difference in the way we look at gambling. I am not looking to win 40 bucks here and there going 4-3 on any given day. I don't mind paying -200 or -300. Heck I have gone way higher then that. I also like to play the alternate runline, at +2.5 on the favorite if any of my books will let me. I doubt anybody would be interested to follow along on those plays though. If I can buy down a 7 run total to 5 I will...

Justin, I know you mean well, but I just couldn't shut up seeing that. It reminded me of all the people saying, "well the yankees have to turn it around, because it's the yankees" or "the Astros are a great second half team, just look at the last two years"...

ETA: I am talking baseball here, just to clarify before the followup questions about Hockey or Football ;)
Click to expand...
But at what cost are you playing "good teams?" And what defines a good team? We can finally see now who the "good teams" are now that we are 100 games into the season. Was Detroit considered "good" coming into the season? How about Cincy or even the Mets for that matter? It's all relative when we are talking records. The Yanks, Red Sox, and Chi Sox were percieved to be good coming into the season and they are still "good." But, play them every night and lay chalk, see if you come out ahead.

I know we can point to Detroit and say well they are good and I have made tons of money betting on them this year. Well, yes after the fact (100 games into the season) we do see they are a good team and money was to be made betting ON this team. But, what about now? Are they going to be lined as dogs like they were earlier in the year when they were making people money? No. They were on the road today against Sabathia and a decent Indians team and they were a pk. The value has disappeared from them, IMO.

"I like playing against good teams and playing bad teams." Okay, I can state that in two sentences. I like playing against good teams. I like playing bad teams.

I like playing bad teams a lot more. There's much more room for improvement when we play bad teams. See KC this year. They were "percieved" to be quite possibly the worst team ever just a few months ago. How about now?

I know you are a good gambler Charv. I'm not trying to argue against you. You also know that I will/are on my way to being a good one as well. We have two different schools of thought and there's many different ones out there. You like searching for "odd" bets on off numbers. Bets that normal people don't think about playing. I need to do more or this, but it will take time for me to even think about wagering on things like this.

You go on your way making money the way you do, I'll make money my way. There's many ways to make money, it's just a matter of finding the way that best fits your style.

 
All bad teams are usually perceived as worse than their true mean.

At the end of the year people will point to the winner and say, they were GREAT when in reality they were great combined with some luck. They will point to the bad teams and say they are horrible, not so horrible but certainly bad, but with some BAD luck.

 
:goodposting: Now that was better!

You can find those "bad" teams that will give value at times because you spend countless hours trying to find that info and trying to shop lines. I just don't like the mindset of looking for bad teams.

I think you are too focused on just shoping lines, and not enough on finding teams that are good.

(Good = Having a solid team, has good pitchers, good offense and good defense, with favorable matchups on the day. I don't care if some expert on cbs sportsline thought they were good or bad going into the season, or what their record is for that matter.)

I'm just busting some balls on a slow afternoon so don't pay attention to me ;)

Oh, and at what cost? Does that matter? I only care what's in my wallet after the season, not what I paid to win it... Hey, like you said, everybody is different, so if you find a style that fits you, kudos to you.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
All bad teams are usually perceived as worse than their true mean.

At the end of the year people will point to the winner and say, they were GREAT when in reality they were great combined with some luck. They will point to the bad teams and say they are horrible, not so horrible but certainly bad, but with some BAD luck.
Click to expand...
WTF???? :help: :whoosh:
 
All bad teams are usually perceived as worse than their true mean.

At the end of the year people will point to the winner and say, they were GREAT when in reality they were great combined with some luck. They will point to the bad teams and say they are horrible, not so horrible but certainly bad, but with some BAD luck.
Click to expand...
WTF???? :help: :whoosh:
Click to expand...
That's what I said a few months ago. This is a quote from the BEST baseball capper I've ever seen. Seriously and you know how much time I'm on the net. He was up over 65 units at the All-Star break. He's a pro and hasn't missed a day of baseball betting in 3 years. I have been talking with him throughout the year trying to pick his brain and this was the argument I was stuck on. I thought bad teams always lost money at the end of the year. Go check Covers.com and look at the last few years. The worst teams (record wise) always lost money. I'm off to the Phillies game. I'm sure we can discuss this at a later time if you wish. I know nobody here wants to here my view anyway.

 
All bad teams are usually perceived as worse than their true mean.

At the end of the year people will point to the winner and say, they were GREAT when in reality they were great combined with some luck. They will point to the bad teams and say they are horrible, not so horrible but certainly bad, but with some BAD luck.
Click to expand...
WTF???? :help: :whoosh:
Click to expand...
That's what I said a few months ago. This is a quote from the BEST baseball capper I've ever seen. Seriously and you know how much time I'm on the net. He was up over 65 units at the All-Star break. He's a pro and hasn't missed a day of baseball betting in 3 years. I have been talking with him throughout the year trying to pick his brain and this was the argument I was stuck on. I thought bad teams always lost money at the end of the year. Go check Covers.com and look at the last few years. The worst teams (record wise) always lost money. I'm off to the Phillies game. I'm sure we can discuss this at a later time if you wish. I know nobody here wants to here my view anyway.
Click to expand...
:doh: I read in the paper today that it is the 26th of July! :thumbup: I'm done... enough :pokey: I'm off for some more poker...

ETA: Have fun at the game! :banned:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hi :bye:

Is anyone betting any games tonight?

TIA
Click to expand...
Straight Wager 07/26/06 17:59 ET10.00/10.00 Result: Pending

Over 9.5 (Even)

Parlay (2 Teams) 07/26/06 11:30 ET

10.00/22.54 Result: Pending

Diamondbacks(Arizona) -135

Yankees(NewYork) -115

Straight Wager 07/26/06 10:34 ET

10.00/9.43 Result: Pending

Reds(Cincinnati) -106

Straight Wager 07/26/06 10:32 ET

10.00/14.20 Result: Pending

Marlins(Florida) +142

 
Just threw a couple units on the Twins to win it all at 28:1 at 5 dimes. It dropped down to 12:1 five minuets after I got my bet in. Sorry I didn't get in here in time to let you all know about that really skewed line.

 
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

Charvik and Gambino have me rolling here. Gonna be a great year of football.

Green, I love the over in the Seattle/Toronto game tonight, that's basically all you need to know....1-0 game there.

 
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

Charvik and Gambino have me rolling here. Gonna be a great year of football.

Green, I love the over in the Seattle/Toronto game tonight, that's basically all you need to know....1-0 game there.
Click to expand...
:eek: :cry: I played it small, was thinking of adding on, but now I won't. ;)

 
All bad teams are usually perceived as worse than their true mean.

At the end of the year people will point to the winner and say, they were GREAT when in reality they were great combined with some luck. They will point to the bad teams and say they are horrible, not so horrible but certainly bad, but with some BAD luck.
Click to expand...
WTF???? :help: :whoosh:
Click to expand...
That's what I said a few months ago. This is a quote from the BEST baseball capper I've ever seen. Seriously and you know how much time I'm on the net. He was up over 65 units at the All-Star break. He's a pro and hasn't missed a day of baseball betting in 3 years. I have been talking with him throughout the year trying to pick his brain and this was the argument I was stuck on. I thought bad teams always lost money at the end of the year. Go check Covers.com and look at the last few years. The worst teams (record wise) always lost money. I'm off to the Phillies game. I'm sure we can discuss this at a later time if you wish. I know nobody here wants to here my view anyway.
Click to expand...
:doh: I read in the paper today that it is the 26th of July! :thumbup: I'm done... enough :pokey: I'm off for some more poker...

ETA: Have fun at the game! :banned:
Click to expand...
I'm assuming the July 26th date was to the capper who made 65 units before the break. He doesn't like to keep his records public, but he said a few days ago that he's at a post all-star game high, so likely up near 75 units to so. He's no one year wonder; he's made 6 figures betting baseball the past 3 years. He knows his stuff. You do too, I'm not doubting you at all. God knows how many years you have been doing this. I'm trying to copy what he does and make bets like he does. He made 27 wagers yesterday, you may have made a couple. As long as you both make money, no one way is deemed the "best." That's what makes this fun.

Good luck Charv.

 
All bad teams are usually perceived as worse than their true mean.

At the end of the year people will point to the winner and say, they were GREAT when in reality they were great combined with some luck. They will point to the bad teams and say they are horrible, not so horrible but certainly bad, but with some BAD luck.
Click to expand...
WTF???? :help: :whoosh:
Click to expand...
That's what I said a few months ago. This is a quote from the BEST baseball capper I've ever seen. Seriously and you know how much time I'm on the net. He was up over 65 units at the All-Star break. He's a pro and hasn't missed a day of baseball betting in 3 years. I have been talking with him throughout the year trying to pick his brain and this was the argument I was stuck on. I thought bad teams always lost money at the end of the year. Go check Covers.com and look at the last few years. The worst teams (record wise) always lost money. I'm off to the Phillies game. I'm sure we can discuss this at a later time if you wish. I know nobody here wants to here my view anyway.
Click to expand...
:doh: I read in the paper today that it is the 26th of July! :thumbup: I'm done... enough :pokey: I'm off for some more poker...

ETA: Have fun at the game! :banned:
Click to expand...
I'm assuming the July 26th date was to the capper who made 65 units before the break. He doesn't like to keep his records public, but he said a few days ago that he's at a post all-star game high, so likely up near 75 units to so. He's no one year wonder; he's made 6 figures betting baseball the past 3 years. He knows his stuff. You do too, I'm not doubting you at all. God knows how many years you have been doing this. I'm trying to copy what he does and make bets like he does. He made 27 wagers yesterday, you may have made a couple. As long as you both make money, no one way is deemed the "best." That's what makes this fun.

Good luck Charv.
Click to expand...
no I don't doubt him at all, I know who it is... I was just being an ### regarding his quote, because it's one of thos d'uh lines...
 
All bad teams are usually perceived as worse than their true mean.

At the end of the year people will point to the winner and say, they were GREAT when in reality they were great combined with some luck. They will point to the bad teams and say they are horrible, not so horrible but certainly bad, but with some BAD luck.
Click to expand...
WTF???? :help: :whoosh:
Click to expand...
That's what I said a few months ago. This is a quote from the BEST baseball capper I've ever seen. Seriously and you know how much time I'm on the net. He was up over 65 units at the All-Star break. He's a pro and hasn't missed a day of baseball betting in 3 years. I have been talking with him throughout the year trying to pick his brain and this was the argument I was stuck on. I thought bad teams always lost money at the end of the year. Go check Covers.com and look at the last few years. The worst teams (record wise) always lost money. I'm off to the Phillies game. I'm sure we can discuss this at a later time if you wish. I know nobody here wants to here my view anyway.
Click to expand...
:doh: I read in the paper today that it is the 26th of July! :thumbup: I'm done... enough :pokey: I'm off for some more poker...

ETA: Have fun at the game! :banned:
Click to expand...
I'm assuming the July 26th date was to the capper who made 65 units before the break. He doesn't like to keep his records public, but he said a few days ago that he's at a post all-star game high, so likely up near 75 units to so. He's no one year wonder; he's made 6 figures betting baseball the past 3 years. He knows his stuff. You do too, I'm not doubting you at all. God knows how many years you have been doing this. I'm trying to copy what he does and make bets like he does. He made 27 wagers yesterday, you may have made a couple. As long as you both make money, no one way is deemed the "best." That's what makes this fun.

Good luck Charv.
Click to expand...
no I don't doubt him at all, I know who it is... I was just being an ### regarding his quote, because it's one of thos d'uh lines...
Click to expand...
It took many private messages, lots of thought, and lots of time to realize that betting KC nearly everyday when they were terrible was a bet I would have to make in the future in order to be succesful in his type of capping. Could you post your card from today (or some day this week)? If not here, e-mail it to me. I'd like to take a look and see some of your plays.

 
All bad teams are usually perceived as worse than their true mean.

At the end of the year people will point to the winner and say, they were GREAT when in reality they were great combined with some luck. They will point to the bad teams and say they are horrible, not so horrible but certainly bad, but with some BAD luck.
Click to expand...
WTF???? :help: :whoosh:
Click to expand...
That's what I said a few months ago. This is a quote from the BEST baseball capper I've ever seen. Seriously and you know how much time I'm on the net. He was up over 65 units at the All-Star break. He's a pro and hasn't missed a day of baseball betting in 3 years. I have been talking with him throughout the year trying to pick his brain and this was the argument I was stuck on. I thought bad teams always lost money at the end of the year. Go check Covers.com and look at the last few years. The worst teams (record wise) always lost money. I'm off to the Phillies game. I'm sure we can discuss this at a later time if you wish. I know nobody here wants to here my view anyway.
Click to expand...
:doh: I read in the paper today that it is the 26th of July! :thumbup: I'm done... enough :pokey: I'm off for some more poker...

ETA: Have fun at the game! :banned:
Click to expand...
I'm assuming the July 26th date was to the capper who made 65 units before the break. He doesn't like to keep his records public, but he said a few days ago that he's at a post all-star game high, so likely up near 75 units to so. He's no one year wonder; he's made 6 figures betting baseball the past 3 years. He knows his stuff. You do too, I'm not doubting you at all. God knows how many years you have been doing this. I'm trying to copy what he does and make bets like he does. He made 27 wagers yesterday, you may have made a couple. As long as you both make money, no one way is deemed the "best." That's what makes this fun.

Good luck Charv.
Click to expand...
no I don't doubt him at all, I know who it is... I was just being an ### regarding his quote, because it's one of thos d'uh lines...
Click to expand...
It took many private messages, lots of thought, and lots of time to realize that betting KC nearly everyday when they were terrible was a bet I would have to make in the future in order to be succesful in his type of capping. Could you post your card from today (or some day this week)? If not here, e-mail it to me. I'd like to take a look and see some of your plays.
Click to expand...
I am on "vacation" from capping until football starts... college of course :thumbup:
 
The only thing that jumps out at me this afternoon is Philly and the over; I don't want to lay that much chalk with Lidle so I may just play the over.

Later today my early leans are baltimore, Houston and the over in stl/chc. I like the price on the cubbies but they are a bad team right now.

 
The only thing that jumps out at me this afternoon is Philly and the over; I don't want to lay that much chalk with Lidle so I may just play the over.

Later today my early leans are baltimore, Houston and the over in stl/chc. I like the price on the cubbies but they are a bad team right now.
Click to expand...
What is the o/u on the Philly game?
 
The only thing that jumps out at me this afternoon is Philly and the over; I don't want to lay that much chalk with Lidle so I may just play the over.

Later today my early leans are baltimore, Houston and the over in stl/chc.  I like the price on the cubbies but they are a bad team right now.
Click to expand...
What is the o/u on the Philly game?
Click to expand...
10.5
 
The only thing that jumps out at me this afternoon is Philly and the over; I don't want to lay that much chalk with Lidle so I may just play the over.

Later today my early leans are baltimore, Houston and the over in stl/chc.  I like the price on the cubbies but they are a bad team right now.
Click to expand...
What is the o/u on the Philly game?
Click to expand...
10.5
Click to expand...
I see 10 at Pinny
 
The only thing that jumps out at me this afternoon is Philly and the over; I don't want to lay that much chalk with Lidle so I may just play the over.

Later today my early leans are baltimore, Houston and the over in stl/chc.  I like the price on the cubbies but they are a bad team right now.
Click to expand...
What is the o/u on the Philly game?
Click to expand...
10.5
Click to expand...
I see 10 at Pinny
Click to expand...
I see 10.5 at Pinny.
Click to expand...
ok - ya got me - my number was from the Roarin' Soarin' link which is supposed to feed the line from Pinny so I just assumed it was 10 - guess not!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
g'luck to you guys today. While I was transferring $10MM from my local book the games started as I was hitting submit. Was totally gonna tail the DBack Nats parlay. As it stands now, I'll have to wait until tonight and just root for you guys. :kicksrock:

 
g'luck to you guys today. While I was transferring $10MM from my local book the games started as I was hitting submit. Was totally gonna tail the DBack Nats parlay. As it stands now, I'll have to wait until tonight and just root for you guys. :kicksrock:
Click to expand...
Need to borrow some?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Tonycarpenter
Questions about players Position Eligibility 2025 and beyond specific to my roster
Replies
2
Views
1K
FDASv2.0
FDASv2.0
L
Ohtani Contract & Why Baseball is Terrible
Replies
9
Views
1K
Eephus
Eephus
Tonycarpenter
12 Team 15 Keeper Who do you keep
Replies
16
Views
1K
Tonycarpenter
Tonycarpenter

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top