Basic Drafting Principles Lost = More Value Than Ever (1 Viewer)

[bongo92]

The basic principles of holding out for QB and TE's seem to now be lost. I could not believe the value at RB and WR I saw at our draft on Sunday. And this is a pretty solid league with guys who have been playing for years. Expect some studs in rounds 2 through 5 if you play it right.

12 teams, I had pick 6. 1 keeper league (I chose Ray Rice, lost my 6th round pick from last year). My first 5 picks*

1.06 Frank Gore (picked AFTER Rodgers, Brees, and the 3 keepers)

2.07 Steven Jackson (picked AFTER Manning, Brady, 7 Tier 1 Wr's, and Schaub)

3.06 Brandon Marshall (picked AFTER Romo, more WR's and teams scramblilng for their starting RB's)

4.07 Steve Smith - Carolina (picked 11 spots AFTER Rivers)

5.06 Wes Welker (picked AFTER 5 TE's)

What I'm seeing...the perceived drop offs after the Top 7 Qb's and Top 5 to 6 TE's are scaring owners into a "I need to have one of these guys AT ALL COSTS...". That leaves some incredible value picks on the board across RB and WR...being able to get guys much lower than their projections/ADP.

You guys agree? Isanyone else seeing this madness in your drafts? QB and TE love way too early?

 

[FallenHero32]

Completely agree. Every mock draft I did as well as my live one saw insane value guys dropping. I think I even saw a TE taken in the 3rd or 4th round. One Mock I saw Brees and Rodgers going 1 and 2. I think we are seeing alot of people buying into the QB hype that happens and taking a quality QB early. The TE thing...I just don't understand at all. Calvin Johnson lasted into the 2nd round of my draft and got to me....and I picked 4th. I don't get it.

 

[bongo92]

I think many still go after "need" vs best available way too early in the draft. For some reason, some think that they need to have a top flight QB and will do it at all costs. Now that seems to be carrying over to TE. This is blinding some to studs that are on the table right in front of them. I've never seen it this bad.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I would suggest increasing the level of competition you play against.

 

[bongo92]

I don't know if it's a New Wave philosophy that is driving these decisions or the perception that the players you stole just weren't very good. Passing up on Gore is a little puzzling to me (did they have RBs as their keepers?) but the rest of the pass overs I pretty much understand.

For the two that passed over Gore, they did not have RB's as their keeper. They choose Rodgers and Brees.As for the others...I'm not a huge fan of Steven Jackson and would not have drafted him in Rd 1, but for him to go at 19 (2.07) with Brady and Schaub to go before him, I saw that as insane.Marshall going 30 (3.06) with 6 QB's going before him and Rivers going right after him (the guy who drafted Rivers admitted that he would have taken him in my spot too), I also saw that as insane5 TE's going off the board in 4th round with a load of really good WR's/RB's on the table...insane

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think the title sort of contradicts itself. Don't you mean now more than ever you should hold true to the old theory of get a Qb late and grab core players early? Personally I've liked going Gates or Finley as Stud Te and taking Qb's late.

With some of the negative news on Kolb and Cutler, I was able to get both of those guys in the 9 and 10th round in a 12 team draft with 6 point Tds. Got gates at 4.02 (no ppr) and everything in between is Rb and Wr.

 

[bongo92]

I think the title sort of contradicts itself. Don't you mean now more than ever you should hold true to the old theory of get a Qb late and grab core players early? Personally I've liked going Gates or Finley as Stud Te and taking Qb's late.With some of the negative news on Kolb and Cutler, I was able to get both of those guys in the 9 and 10th round in a 12 team draft with 6 point Tds. Got gates at 4.02 (no ppr) and everything in between is Rb and Wr.

could have phrased the title better but yes I agree with you.The theory is even more powerful now because many are going against it.

 

[aimlessgun]

The basic principles of holding out for QB and TE's seem to now be lost. I could not believe the value at RB and WR I saw at our draft on Sunday. And this is a pretty solid league with guys who have been playing for years. Expect some studs in rounds 2 through 5 if you play it right.12 teams, I had pick 6. 1 keeper league (I chose Ray Rice, lost my 6th round pick from last year). My first 5 picks*1.06 Frank Gore (picked AFTER Rodgers, Brees, and the 3 keepers)2.07 Steven Jackson (picked AFTER Manning, Brady, 7 Tier 1 Wr's, and Schaub)3.06 Brandon Marshall (picked AFTER Romo, more WR's and teams scramblilng for their starting RB's)4.07 Steve Smith - Carolina (picked 11 spots AFTER Rivers)5.06 Wes Welker (picked AFTER 5 TE's)What I'm seeing...the perceived drop offs after the Top 7 Qb's and Top 5 to 6 TE's are scaring owners into a "I need to have one of these guys AT ALL COSTS...". That leaves some incredible value picks on the board across RB and WR...being able to get guys much lower than their projections/ADP. You guys agree? Isanyone else seeing this madness in your drafts? QB and TE love way too early?

I'm not seeing what you're describing in my drafts, no. Rodgers will sometimes go Rd1. Brees/Manning Rd2/early 3. Romo 4. Schaub/Rivers 4-5. Only Gates and Clark go in the late 4 early 5. What you are describing from that draft does indeed sound ridiculous, but I don't think it's as common as you think.

 

[hook014]

I think a lot of drafters are looking at the top 7 QBs and thinking " Don't get caught without one". Fair enough, last year you could sit back and catch a good one late. Not so much this year and now Phillips stock has dropped somewhat so we might be looking at six. I can see that.

But the kicker is that these same guys are also trying to draft an elite TE within the first 5 rds. That's a tall order and if you're reading your draft right you can really catch them with their pants down. So you can get tremendous value but if it's one of those leagues where no one ever makes a trade it doesn't help you as much as you would think. So you have to take that into consideration.

In one of my leagues trades happen at a normal pace and you can really draft for value. It's fun.

In the other very few guys are willing to deal and would rather go down with the ship than take a chance on improving their team. In that league I am verrrry careful about getting my starters drafted and go in knowing that the waiver wire is my only friend.

2 different drafts, 2 different strategies. The no- trade sucks sometimes but the other serious contenders don't get to improve their team either so it can be a wash. Like we always say, you gotta know your league.

 

[Judge Smails]

Same as every year with people chasing runs with perceived big drop offs in tiers. My belief is that there is always value to be had if you create runs instead of following them. I took Manning/Austin at 1.11/2.02 and still was able to find value in RB/WR throughout.

 

[davearm]

Sounds to me like the OP is going to have some fantastic guys on his bench each week while he's getting outscored at QB and TE.

Depth is terrific of course but only the starters count.

 

[UW72]

In a 12-team-league that goes into it's fourth year with experienced players the QBs went from board like butter on toast:

1.11 Rodgers

1.12 Brees

2.03 Manning

2.04 Schaub

2.10 Brady

2.11 Romo

3.07 Rivers

The TE run started early in round 4

4.02 Gates

4.08 Clark

4.09 Finley

5.01 Witten

5.09 Davis

6.01 Celek

I also thought that this was ridiculous... I grabbed some nice RBs (ADP, Charles, Foster) and WRs (Calvin, Floyd, S. Moss) in the first six rounds and took my QBs (Palmer, Ben, Orton) and TEs (Shiancoe, Olson) later...

 

[Clifton]

Mind posting the rest of your roster?

 

[UW72]

12 teams, 1 PPR, 1QB/1-2RB/2-3WR/1TE/1K/1DST, Pass TD 4 pts

Palmer, Carson CIN QB

Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

Orton, Kyle DEN QB

Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

Foster, Arian HOU RB

Taylor, Chester CHI RB

Johnson, Calvin DET WR

Floyd, Malcom SDC WR

Moss, Santana WAS WR

Royal, Eddie DEN WR

Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN TE

Olsen, Greg CHI TE

Buehler, David DAL PK

Bengals, Cincinnati CIN DST

Broncos, Denver DEN DST

I traded for the 1.02 pick (from 1.05),

so I had no picks in round 4 but 2 picks in round 5

and we switched picks in rounds 6 and 8

Palmer and Orton have a nice combined schedule and when Roethlisberger's suspension is reduced I am fine at QB

Shiancoe with Favre and without Rice should be OK

Bengals and Broncos also have a good combined schedule. Most teams only picked one defense so the WW is full of options.

 

[gethugefast1]

Sounds to me like the OP is going to have some fantastic guys on his bench each week while he's getting outscored at QB and TE.Depth is terrific of course but only the starters count.

Agree davearm. I drafted as value dropped. I'm over loaded at RB, but can now use depth for RB injuries (which we all know will happen) and/or trading power. While 8 of the other owners drafted their QBs in the 1st 3 rounds (9 owner in the 5th), I grabbed Cutler in the 8th, allowing value at RB & WR in earlier 7 rounds.My League does NOT deduct for interceptions or fumbles. (see signature)Round Pick Player Position 1. (1) Adrian Peterson RB 2. (20) Randy Moss WR 3. (21) DeAngelo Williams RB 4. (40) Jahvid Best RB 5. (41) Arian Foster RB 6. (60) Steve Smith (CAR) WR 7. (61) Joseph Addai RB 8. (80) Jay Cutler QB 9. (81) Pierre Garcon WR 10. (100) Clinton Portis RB 11. (101) Santana Moss WR 12. (120) Jabar Gaffney RB 13. (121) Miami DEF 14. (140) Matt Prater K

 

[Cassius]

Every year, more teams throw more and more and split carries between RB's more. QB's are getting more and more valuable as RB's get deeper.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I have always been a big advocate of the wait on QB and TE theory. Not because I was just dead set on doing that no matter what, just that is where the value always seemed to fall. This year was the first year I took a QB and TE early. This team is the one that I like the most post-draft, although I know a lot can change fast. I did not intend to take a QB early, but I just could not pass up the value at that spot.

12 team PPR (.4 for RB, .7 for WR, 1 for TE) start 1/2/3/1, made a few trades predraft

1.09 WR Calvin Johnson

2.11 RB DeAngelo Williams

3.01 QB Peyton Manning

3.11 RB Jahvid Best

4.06 TE Jermichael Finley (after Gates and Clark)

6.09 WR Pierre Garcon

7.01 RB Michael Bush (aargh)

9.01 WR Donald Drivers

I expect to get top 3 production at both QB and TE, which puts me at a significant advantage against a team starting a combo of Eli/Cooley that waited on QB and TE.

 

[Pipes]

In a 12-team-league that goes into it's fourth year with experienced players the QBs went from board like butter on toast:1.11 Rodgers1.12 Brees2.03 Manning2.04 Schaub2.10 Brady2.11 Romo3.07 RiversThe TE run started early in round 44.02 Gates4.08 Clark4.09 Finley5.01 Witten5.09 Davis6.01 CelekI also thought that this was ridiculous... I grabbed some nice RBs (ADP, Charles, Foster) and WRs (Calvin, Floyd, S. Moss) in the first six rounds and took my QBs (Palmer, Ben, Orton) and TEs (Shiancoe, Olson) later...

In 2 redraft leagues I'm in, one league is guys with 15+ years of experience and the other of guys with 10+ the same thing happened. Except Rodgers went top 5 in both, Brees in the 6-10 range and Manning late 1st. Brady, Shaub & Romo were all gone by the end of the 2nd. Finley was an early 3rd in one and late 3rd in another with the rest of the TE's looking similar to yours. At least in my experience people are drafting differently this year.

 

[Pipes]

In a 12-team-league that goes into it's fourth year with experienced players the QBs went from board like butter on toast:1.11 Rodgers1.12 Brees2.03 Manning2.04 Schaub2.10 Brady2.11 Romo3.07 RiversThe TE run started early in round 44.02 Gates4.08 Clark4.09 Finley5.01 Witten5.09 Davis6.01 CelekI also thought that this was ridiculous... I grabbed some nice RBs (ADP, Charles, Foster) and WRs (Calvin, Floyd, S. Moss) in the first six rounds and took my QBs (Palmer, Ben, Orton) and TEs (Shiancoe, Olson) later...

In 2 redraft leagues I'm in, one league is guys with 15+ years of experience and the other of guys with 10+ the same thing happened. Except Rodgers went top 5 in both, Brees in the 6-10 range and Manning late 1st. Brady, Shaub & Romo were all gone by the end of the 2nd. Finley was an early 3rd in one and late 3rd in another with the rest of the TE's looking similar to yours. At least in my experience people are drafting differently this year.

 

[bongo92]

Sounds to me like the OP is going to have some fantastic guys on his bench each week while he's getting outscored at QB and TE.Depth is terrific of course but only the starters count.

May be getting outscored a few weeks at QB and TE, but I'll take the top starting RB/WR combo in the league for now:StartersQB: M. RyanRB: F. Gore/R. Rice (keeper)Flex: Steven JacksonWR: B. Marshall/S. Smith (Car)/W. WelkerTE: Z. Miller (Oak)K: M. CrosbyD: JetsI was able to land Gore, Steven Jackson, and Marshall well below their ADP because of a ridiculous QB run and Smith and Welker because of a wild TE run.Full team below included with sig

 

[bongo92]

Sounds to me like the OP is going to have some fantastic guys on his bench each week while he's getting outscored at QB and TE.Depth is terrific of course but only the starters count.

May be getting outscored a few weeks at QB and TE, but I'll take the top starting RB/WR combo in the league for now:StartersQB: M. RyanRB: F. Gore/R. Rice (keeper)Flex: Steven JacksonWR: B. Marshall/S. Smith (Car)/W. WelkerTE: Z. Miller (Oak)K: M. CrosbyD: JetsI was able to land Gore, Steven Jackson, and Marshall well below their ADP because of a ridiculous QB run and Smith and Welker because of a wild TE run.Full team below included with sig

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Mind posting the rest of your roster?

 

[meatwad1]

I think a lot of drafters are looking at the top 7 QBs and thinking " Don't get caught without one". Fair enough, last year you could sit back and catch a good one late. Not so much this year and now Phillips stock has dropped somewhat so we might be looking at six. I can see that.

? Why can't you sit back this year and catch a good one late? In my opinion, every year you can sit back and catch a good one late, or at least pull a servicable one off the waiver wire. Why would this year be any different? Because the FF mags say so? I agree with the OP...there is tons of value to be had at wr/rb, there is no reason why guys like Eli, Mcnabb, Flacco, Stafford, and Palmer don't have just as good of a chance to put up QB#1 numbers.For TE, I ended up getting Gonzalas in the 8th.

 

[hook014]

I think a lot of drafters are looking at the top 7 QBs and thinking " Don't get caught without one". Fair enough, last year you could sit back and catch a good one late. Not so much this year and now Phillips stock has dropped somewhat so we might be looking at six. I can see that.

? Why can't you sit back this year and catch a good one late? In my opinion, every year you can sit back and catch a good one late, or at least pull a servicable one off the waiver wire. Why would this year be any different? Because the FF mags say so?

I agree with the OP...there is tons of value to be had at wr/rb, there is no reason why guys like Eli, Mcnabb, Flacco, Stafford, and Palmer don't have just as good of a chance to put up QB#1 numbers.

For TE, I ended up getting Gonzalas in the 8th.

I don't know what the ff mags say because I never buy them. Why would I since I have this place?

Some of this is about perception. Your perception is that you can still find value late this year but I'm not so sure. Last year I got Shaub in the 9th and knew he'd be there predraft. I was fine with that and Warner was still on the board so the next guy did fine too. Now Warner is gone and Shaub went (along with the other top6) by the middle of the 4th. Favre doesn't have near the upside this year either and went as a backup in my league this draft. So I'm not seeing top ten upside late in the draft like years past. The point is that ignoring draft trends and percieved versus actual value is rather dangerous. Every year is a little different and the QB tier has a stark dropoff this year IMO.

As far as the bolded, dominating at a position vs "a servicable one" are really 2 different things wouldn't you say?

Doesn't sound like your even having the same discussion as me. Or your missing the point.

You list no fewer than 5 qbs who can have top 10 numbers while being drafted late. A list that long is worthless. Is anyone gonna draft 5 late QBs to try to hit on one.

A list of 2 that you can draft late, maybe even back to back, would be more valuable and put you on a true prediction.

So with the benefit of the entire preseason played at this point and most drafts done give us your two. And then you can bump this thread throughout the year and make me eat crow.

 

[Nugget]

I got Gore after Rodgers and Brees were drated. Picked up Turner with the 17th pick. 5 TE's were gone by the end of the third. Kolb went at the 3/4 turn.

 

[Da Guru]

Brees and A-Rod will almost assure you a playoff spot, then if you scoop good players during the QB run you are golden.

 

[two_dollars]

Brees and A-Rod will almost assure you a playoff spot, then if you scoop good players during the QB run you are golden.

A-Rod plays baseball

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Message board non-sense impacting drafts imo.

Examples:

"I'm taking Finley and expecting Gates production."

"I'm taking Romo and expecting Manning production."

"I'm taking Ryan Matthews and expecting Gore production."

Some of these aggressive strategies my actually work, but from a risk / reward standpoint its fools gold imo.

It goes on and on. There are certain players who are money, and everyone's looking for the next big thing instead of sticking to their knitting imo.

 

[two_dollars]

Message board non-sense impacting drafts imo.Examples:"I'm taking Finley and expecting Gates production.""I'm taking Romo and expecting Manning production.""I'm taking Ryan Matthews and expecting Gore production."Some of these aggressive strategies my actually work, but from a risk / reward standpoint its fools gold imo.It goes on and on. There are certain players who are money, and everyone's looking for the next big thing instead of sticking to their knitting imo.

and I think this harks to how social fantasy football has become. Everyone plays now.. and that makes it easier for those in the know to stack their team.

 

[Saint]

Have to agree... 10 team league Non-PPR and saw total craziness.

4 QBs in Rd 1, 1 QB in Rd 3, 4 QBs in Rd 4 (I grabbed Schaub in the 4th)

TEs went in 5/6 round for us with 6 off the board

 

[Donnybrook]

I got Gore after Rodgers and Brees were drated. Picked up Turner with the 17th pick. 5 TE's were gone by the end of the third. Kolb went at the 3/4 turn.

This must have been a dynasty league. I'd be schocked if it was redraft.

 

[AcerFC]

I actually went with one of these crazy strategies this year. I do the same thing every year, make the playoffs and never win. So I changed it up for no other reason then to try something different. My team is awful but I'm not so sure it would have been any better if I went the value pick. Figured I would take a risk this season. Probably won't work but it's all about trying.

 

[kinglochness]

Every year, more teams throw more and more and split carries between RB's more. QB's are getting more and more valuable as RB's get deeper.

I disagree. We have been seeing more teams use a committee approach to running back for several years now. I would argue that makes the elite RB's even more valuable. Guys like MJD and CJ are made more valuable because they have no competition. This year you have maybe 3 or 4 really good RB's and it's basically which guys you like after that. No real consensus. This is no longer an exception. This is the norm. And the plain fact is, unless you play in a huge league, there will always be decent QB's to be had in mid to late rounds, or even off the waiver. Yes, the league as a whole is throwing the ball more, but that does little to create extreme value in certain QB's over others. Rather, many individual QB's are putting up bigger numbers. That's VBD 101. There are simply more QB's to go around than RB's because most leagues start 1 QB and 2 to 4 RB's. It's always been that way. I do not understand people that consistently draft Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or (this year) Aaron Rodgers in the top 5.

 

[gsmayes]

I agree that there are 7 QBs that you can plug in every week and forget about, and personally I think it's worth it to get one of those guys in the first 5 rounds. The big reason is I hate pulling my hair out each week picking between two mediocre QBs, seemingly always picking the wrong one. This is a game after all and I want it to be fun.

Rivers has been my drop dead QB in drafts, and I've ended up with him in two leagues in the 5th round, which I think is great value. If I miss one of those top 7 QBs, I like the strategy of drafting a early season placeholder in Kolb/Ryan/Flacco in the 6/7th and then hedging your bets with Roethlisberger in the 10th. Admittingly, I don't how Roethlisberger's ADP has been affected after the announcement, but I've been operating on the assumption that his suspension would be reduced all preseason.

Now, I don't like drafting a TE in the 3rd/4th, given the depth of the position this year. You can get guys like Tony Gonzalez, Zach Miller, Shiancoe, Daniels, and Celek much later who have just as good a chance of finishing in the top 5.

 

[bjabrad]

The NFL has changed quite a bit since the days when wait for QB and TE was sound advice.

QB's used to be Manning and Brady and everyone else was on a distant tier with much lower drop value.

TE's used to only have two guys that could compete with the #10 WR and now you'll see 5 or six that'll come close to the #10 WR.

RB's (as mentioned above) used to be the holy grail as feature backs but RBBC (two/three RB committees) are much more prevalent which lowers the value of the RB after round #1.

The backup WR that becomes the starter after WR1 gets injured doesn't get all the WR1 targets but the backup RB who becomes the starter after RB1 gets injured WILL get all the RB1's touches/targets which makes drafting WR1's more valuable than drafting RB in rounds 1-3 (especially if it's RBBC).

If you can target a mid round QB that you think will become a top 6 QB (as good as Schaub, Romo, Brady, Rivers) then try it.

If you can find a QBBC playing the matchups with mid round QB's and think you can get performances higher than a top six QB then do it.

If you don't think you can beat the drop off value of a top 6 QB then you need to get one and depending on your league you'll probably have to get them in either the 3rd round or sooner.

 

[smapdi]

I'd rather have the piece of mind of plugging in A. Rodgers every week at QB and knowing he will be the highest scoring player. It is a 6 pt ALL TD leage, so QB's are the highest scoring players and Rodgers was the best last season.

I love it when a few owners just stock up on RB's the first 4 or 5 rounds; you can only start two of them in my league. There are so many quality RB's out there now that your team isn't doomed if you don't stockpile them in the early rounds.

Just from my experiece from my years of FF, I feel like my team is much better when I can plug in an elite QB. I feel I automatically have an advantage over the 7 or 8 teams that do not have an elite, top tier QB.

 

[bigflig]

In a 10-team redraft i picked TIGHT ENDS early. Starting 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 RB/WR FLEX, 2 WR, 1 WR/TE FLEX, 1 DEF/ST, 1K.

10 RANDY MOSS (ANDRE TAKEN AT 7, ALL TIER 1 RB'S, BREES AND RODGERS, CONTRACT YEAR I BELEIEVE)

11 DWILL (CONTRACT YEAR AND CAPABLE OF TOP 5 #'S IF HEALTHY)

30 ANTONIO GATES (TOP TIER WIDE RECIEVERS GONE (11 IN ALL INCLUDING MOSS)

31 J.FINLEY (SOLID IF HEALTHY/ WILL PUT UP 1K AND 10 TD'S)

50 J.ADDAI (ONLY 1 RB CAME OFF THE BOARD ,PIERRE THOMAS, CONTRACT YEAR, COLTS DON'T TRUST BROWN YET)

51 J. BEST (#1 IN DETROIT)

70 J GAFFNEY (WHO KNOWS?)

71 D. MASON ( I NEEDED A SOLID WR DONALD DRIVER AND HINES WARD WERE ALREADY TAKEN/ NOTHING SOLID AFTER THIS PICK)

90 LT (JETS KNOW HOW TO RUN THE BALL/ I DON'T BELEIVE THE JETS FULLY TRUST GREEN/ LT CAN STILL PLAY)

91 C.J. SPILLER

110 JAY CUTLER (12 QBS TAKEN)

111 BRETT FARVE (WHO KNOW'S?- /BIG BEN,HENNE,A.SMITH,HASSELBACK, AND ORTEN STILL AVAL.)

130 LAURENT ROBINSON

131 DEXTER MCCLUSTER

150 ROB BIRONUS

151 CINCINNATI DEF

 

[BigDave]

I'm in a 10 team non TE required league, but chose 2 TE's.

I took Gates at pick #69 and Vernon Davis at pick #92.

I will use one as my WR2 each week based on the matchup.

I don't understand why non TE leagues don't draft TE's as a WR.

In my rankings I had Gates as #41 and Davis as #51 versus all positions.

Against WR's I had them WR16 and WR21.

Witten went in round 14 as the 136th pick? WTH I just don't get it.

The production is there weekly.

Did I miss something?

 

[hook014]

I'm in a 10 team non TE required league, but chose 2 TE's.

I took Gates at pick #69 and Vernon Davis at pick #92.

I will use one as my WR2 each week based on the matchup.

I don't understand why non TE leagues don't draft TE's as a WR.

In my rankings I had Gates as #41 and Davis as #51 versus all positions.

Against WR's I had them WR16 and WR21.

Witten went in round 14 as the 136th pick? WTH I just don't get it.

The production is there weekly.

Did I miss something?

Looks more like the rest of your league missed something. Points are points.

If your bolded numbers hold up, and I don't know why they shouldn't, you're good.

Gonna be tough for you to not talk about the discrepency with your league mates. But as soon as you do the cat's out of the bag.

 

[rizzler]

I'd rather have the piece of mind of plugging in A. Rodgers every week at QB and knowing he will be the highest scoring player. It is a 6 pt ALL TD leage, so QB's are the highest scoring players and Rodgers was the best last season. I love it when a few owners just stock up on RB's the first 4 or 5 rounds; you can only start two of them in my league. There are so many quality RB's out there now that your team isn't doomed if you don't stockpile them in the early rounds. Just from my experiece from my years of FF, I feel like my team is much better when I can plug in an elite QB. I feel I automatically have an advantage over the 7 or 8 teams that do not have an elite, top tier QB.

what's the advantage between starting Rodgers and Eli Manning last year?26points a game v 19.5 points a game...that's the dropoff between the no1 and no 10 QB = 6.5 points/gameadvantage between CJ v joseph addai (no9 ranked as opposed to jackson at 10, who missed games.. the numbers would be MORE in my favour if I used SJax)21.5 points a game v 12.5 points a game = 9 points/game... the importance of studly RBs

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I disagree. I don't see a large difference between my 9th rb and my 24th rb. Receiver it is 7-17 and then 18-31. I would rather have an elite qb/te then take the top guy at these tiers. Though this is more in line with most of leagues which are Phenoms which use 1-2-1 -2 flex. In my 2-3-1 1 flex leagues I picked wr/rb more and only took either a te or a qb in the first few rounds.

 

[rizzler]

the diff between qb 1 and qb 20 = 13/points a game

the diff between rb1 and rb 20 = 12.5/points game

odds are you only start 1qb (and thus have a high probability of starting a top 10-12 QB)

odds are you have to start 2-3 RBs, in which case getting multiple RBs in the top 20 can prove more difficult

 

[hook014]

I'd rather have the piece of mind of plugging in A. Rodgers every week at QB and knowing he will be the highest scoring player. It is a 6 pt ALL TD leage, so QB's are the highest scoring players and Rodgers was the best last season. I love it when a few owners just stock up on RB's the first 4 or 5 rounds; you can only start two of them in my league. There are so many quality RB's out there now that your team isn't doomed if you don't stockpile them in the early rounds. Just from my experiece from my years of FF, I feel like my team is much better when I can plug in an elite QB. I feel I automatically have an advantage over the 7 or 8 teams that do not have an elite, top tier QB.

what's the advantage between starting Rodgers and Eli Manning last year?26points a game v 19.5 points a game...that's the dropoff between the no1 and no 10 QB = 6.5 points/gameadvantage between CJ v joseph addai (no9 ranked as opposed to jackson at 10, who missed games.. the numbers would be MORE in my favour if I used SJax)21.5 points a game v 12.5 points a game = 9 points/game... the importance of studly RBs

Using CJ's unworldy numbers from 2009 for comparison is cherry picking as he was 144 points higher in our scoring to the next RB, MJD. Who started a grouping of the other elite RBs. So if you get a top 2 pick this is relevant. For the other 10 owners it's not worth much.Just for fun I went back to look at last years #'s in my league. Rodgers got 446, Eli 314. A diiference of 8.25 pts per game and 132 overall. That's assuming you picked Eli and not the likes of Cutler, Garrard, Flacco, Palmer or Ryan. Because those are the choices you are asking people to pick from. A little like roulette. FTR Rodgers was 40 pts higher than the next, a reasonable number.Unless there is an RB who you project to get the ungodly #'s CJ had last year let's just go with MJD who led the grouping of elite RBs that were available. MJD 348, Addai 235. A difference of 7 pts per game and 113 overall.Of course if you can name an RB who will post those (CJ) amounts of stats this year and can be had by the time Rodgers is picked share it now. Don't wait till it all plays out and then point it out like you did Eli. I mean, anybody can do that.

 

[rizzler]

Using CJ's unworldy numbers from 2009 for comparison is cherry picking as he was 144 points higher in our scoring to the next RB, MJD. Who started a grouping of the other elite RBs.

you need a new calculator?CJ was 56 points ahead of AP who was #2... FBG historical stats.Rodgers was 36 points over Brees

 

[LittlePhatty]

I think people are seeing more risk involved at the RB position, and more stability with QBs.

The only late QBs I like are Flacco and Stafford. If I'm drafting in the first 4 spots I take my RB and run. In later spots, I'll probably take a QB in either round 1 or 2 just because I want that "sure thing" and I don't want a weekly QB decision.

I'd also like to point out that value falls for everyone in a draft.

If you're saying "I can't believe the quality of RBs that were still on the board in Round 3", well guess what? The owner who took Rodgers in the 1st also gets a 3rd round pick too, and that value is sitting there waiting for him.

 

[hook014]

Using CJ's unworldy numbers from 2009 for comparison is cherry picking as he was 144 points higher in our scoring to the next RB, MJD. Who started a grouping of the other elite RBs.

you need a new calculator?CJ was 56 points ahead of AP who was #2... FBG historical stats.

Rodgers was 36 points over Brees

Does you league conform to FBG historical stats? How many leagues do you think actually do?

FBG stats will mean something to me when my league is based on them. And not a second before.

But you bring up an interesting point. You should always run the stats from your own system as they don't award trophies in any leagues that I'm aware of based on FBG stats.

 

[rizzler]

Using CJ's unworldy numbers from 2009 for comparison is cherry picking as he was 144 points higher in our scoring to the next RB, MJD. Who started a grouping of the other elite RBs.

you need a new calculator?CJ was 56 points ahead of AP who was #2... FBG historical stats.

Rodgers was 36 points over Brees

Does you league conform to FBG historical stats? How many leagues do you think actually do?

FBG stats will mean something to me when my league is based on them. And not a second before.

But you bring up an interesting point. You should always run the stats from your own system as they don't award trophies in any leagues that I'm aware of based on FBG stats.

I realized this once I posted, and we're all guilty of this..

 

[hook014]

Using CJ's unworldy numbers from 2009 for comparison is cherry picking as he was 144 points higher in our scoring to the next RB, MJD. Who started a grouping of the other elite RBs.

you need a new calculator?CJ was 56 points ahead of AP who was #2... FBG historical stats.

Rodgers was 36 points over Brees

Does you league conform to FBG historical stats? How many leagues do you think actually do?

FBG stats will mean something to me when my league is based on them. And not a second before.

But you bring up an interesting point. You should always run the stats from your own system as they don't award trophies in any leagues that I'm aware of based on FBG stats.

I realized this once I posted, and we're all guilty of this..

We're good. I enjoy our discussions as you are a quality poster.

 

[smapdi]

I wouldn't take Rodgers over CJ or AP. I am talking about once the top 3 RB's are gone. Of course those top 3 elite backs are extremely valuable.

Im talking about picking from the 5 spot or later in the decision to take a QB.

I'd much rather have Rodgers then hoping Steven Jackson can stay healthy.

I just find Rodgers to be much more appealing then a tier 2 or 3 RB.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I'd also like to point out that value falls for everyone in a draft.

If you're saying "I can't believe the quality of RBs that were still on the board in Round 3", well guess what? The owner who took Rodgers in the 1st also gets a 3rd round pick too, and that value is sitting there waiting for him.

Yes, but he's drafting that guy as a RB1 while everyone else, who is calling that player a value pick, is looking at him as a RB2. That "value" is not actually sitting there waiting for the Rodgers owner because the value of a player is, in part, dependent on the rest of the players the owner already has rostered. Value does not fall for everyone equally. If you only start one QB and take Rodgers in the first round, then when Manning and Brady are still sitting there in the third they represent far less value to you than they do to the other eleven owners, for example.The age-old question is, will Rodgers provide enough of an advantage at the QB position to counteract the disadvantage you put yourself in by taking him in the first round? Most people believe he won't. If you want one of the "elite" QBs then you want the last one off the board, not the first one.