Before we put NEP, DEN, CIN, GBP, ATL, CAR, etc. in the SB (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

Let's pump the brakes a little. It's only been 4 weeks of football. They don't play the SB in October. For those with short memories, here were the records of some SB participants over the past 15 years and where they stood during the season . . .

2014 NE 2-2, SEA 3-3

2011 NYG 6-6, NEP 5-3

2010 GBP 8-6

2008 ARI 8-6

2007 NYG 0-2

2005 SEA 2-2

2003 NEP 2-2

2002 OAK 4-4

2001 NEP 3-4

2000 BAL 5-4

Twelve of the 30 SB participants (40%) did not play like they were future champions early in the season. Championships are won in Dec/Jan/Feb, not Sep/Oct/Nov.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Thanks?

 

[Danish Bengal]

So you're saying those six teams doesn't all make the SB this year?

 

[Insein]

Lions vs Dolphins SB 50 it is.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Sorry.

I already have NE and GB in the SB.

Thanks though

 

[pantherclub]

what?

 

[PhD]

what?

He is saying to downgrade the Pats ... so they can claim that everyone is out to get them.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

was there a reason you skipped Balt & SF record the year they made the SB?

 

[Run It Up]

what?

He is saying to downgrade the Pats ... so they can claim that everyone is out to get them.

You wanna crown em? Then crown them.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

So you're saying those six teams doesn't all make the SB this year?

This guy gets it.

 

[zftcg]

Wouldn't the more relevant comparison be to list the teams that have started 4-0 in previous years and shown how they have fared ROS? For example, in 2013 both the Seahawks and Broncos started 4-0, and we all know how much they tanked in the second half of the season ...

 

[Anarchy99]

was there a reason you skipped Balt & SF record the year they made the SB?

BAL started 5-1. SFO started 4-1. Not exactly off the beaten track or way off the radar.

 

[NCCommish]

So you're saying 60% did play like future champs? And if so wouldn't the smart money bet the way the majority went?

 

[duaneok66]

I'm confused.

 

[FUBAR]

Sorry.

I already have NE and GB in the SB.

Thanks though

Nah, Carolina and new England. Proving you don't need wide receivers.

 

[Anarchy99]

Since some of you displayed a thirst for knowledge . . .

Since 2000, there have been 43 teams that started a season 4-0. 36 of them went on to make the playoffs (84%). 7 did not (16%). 12 went on to make the Super Bowl (28%).

Here is a breakdown of the franchises (number of 4-0 starts, number of playoff appearances, number of SB appearances)

IND 5-5-2

NEP 3-3-2

DEN 3-2-1

MIN 3-2-0

NOS 2-2-1

STL 2-2-1

KCC 2-2-0

GBP 2-2-0

ATL 2-2-0

NYJ 2-1-0

NYG 2-1-0

SEA 1-1-1

OAK 1-1-1

CAR 1-1-1

CHI 1-1-1

PHI 1-1-1

CIN 1-1-0

DET 1-1-0

TEN 1-1-0

TBB 1-1-0

DAL 1-1-0

HOU 1-1-0

BAL 1-1-0

BUF 1-0-0

SDC 1-0-0

ARI 1-0-0

 

[Tau837]

So you're saying those six teams doesn't all make the SB this year?

 

[dschuler]

Pats make the SB about 50% of the time.

 

[TDorBust]

So basically we can pencil in 1 of these team almost 12 of 14 seasons.

What have been the records of teams making the Super Bowl?

 

[TDorBust]

Also you need to account for 4-0 teams in the same conference as another 4-0 team going to the Super Bowl. For instance if 8 teams go 4-0 all in the AFC and 1 of them makes the Super Bowl it's not that 4-0 teams rarely make it then it's that a 4-0 team will make it just which one is the question so you can eliminate the other teams not 4-0.

 

[TDorBust]

So basically we can pencil in 1 of these team almost 12 of 14 seasons.

What have been the records of teams making the Super Bowl?

Since 20004-0: 13 (40.6%)

3-1: 13 (40.6%)

2-2: 5 (15.6%)

1-3: 1 Pats '01 (3% - outlier)

0-4: 0

I think we can safely assume the Super Bowl will contain only 3-1 and 4-0 teams 1 of each likely.

Falcons, Panthers, Bengals, Broncos, Packers, Patriots, Cardinals, Jets

 

[NajehHejan]

what?

He is saying to downgrade the Pats ... so they can claim that everyone is out to get them.

You wanna crown? Then crown them.

Denny Green!!!

 

[FUBAR]

So basically we can pencil in 1 of these team almost 12 of 14 seasons.

What have been the records of teams making the Super Bowl?

Since 20004-0: 13 (40.6%)

3-1: 13 (40.6%)

2-2: 5 (15.6%)

1-3: 1 Pats '01 (3% - outlier)

0-4: 0

I think we can safely assume the Super Bowl will contain only 3-1 and 4-0 teams 1 of each likely.

Falcons, Panthers, Bengals, Broncos, Packers, Patriots, Cardinals, Jets

I assume nothing while Seattle is 2-2.

They haven't played championship level ball but we can't count them out.

 

[TDorBust]

So basically we can pencil in 1 of these team almost 12 of 14 seasons.

What have been the records of teams making the Super Bowl?

Since 20004-0: 13 (40.6%)

3-1: 13 (40.6%)

2-2: 5 (15.6%)

1-3: 1 Pats '01 (3% - outlier)

0-4: 0

I think we can safely assume the Super Bowl will contain only 3-1 and 4-0 teams 1 of each likely.

Falcons, Panthers, Bengals, Broncos, Packers, Patriots, Cardinals, Jets

I assume nothing while Seattle is 2-2.They haven't played championship level ball but we can't count them out.

Numbers speak loudly so I will stick with them.

 

[Anarchy99]

Good thing NE was ruled out when they started 2-2 last year.

 

[TheFanatic]

Pats make the SB about 50% of the time.

It's a proven fact that half of all statistics are off 50% of the time... Look it up...

 

[Beefeaters]

I just like pumping my brakes. Gives me an excuse to cop a feel with my passenger.

 

[reg]

Let's pump the brakes a little. It's only been 4 weeks of football. They don't play the SB in October. For those with short memories, here were the records of some SB participants over the past 15 years and where they stood during the season . . .

2014 NE 2-2, SEA 3-3 (started 3-1)

2011 NYG 6-6 (started 3-1), NEP 5-3 (started 3-1)

2010 GBP 8-6 (started 3-1)

2008 ARI 8-6 (started 2-2)

2007 NYG 0-2 (started 2-2)

2005 SEA 2-2

2003 NEP 2-2

2002 OAK 4-4 (started 4-0)

2001 NEP 3-4 (started 1-3)

2000 BAL 5-4 (started 3-1)

Twelve of the 30 SB participants (40%) did not play like they were future champions early in the season. Championships are won in Dec/Jan/Feb, not Sep/Oct/Nov.

I'm not sure why you are comparing what teams were doing 8, 9, 14 games into the season vs. 4 games, but I have updated your post with everyone's 4 game standing. Seems the first four games is a pretty good predictor. If you're below .500 after four games it's not looking good for your team.

 

[TDorBust]

Good thing NE was ruled out when they started 2-2 last year.

Exactly my point:

2-2 teams make it 15% of the time which is mathematically 1 out of every 3.1-ish years....

Where as a 4-0 and 3-1 team make it pretty much every single year 13 out of 16 years to be exact, missing 1 time ever 5.3-ish years on average.

Since 2000

4-0: 13 (40.6%)

3-1: 13 (40.6%)

2-2: 5 (15.6%)

1-3: 1 Pats '01 (3% - outlier)

0-4: 0