BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: BenJarvus Green-Ellis Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[mlball77]

BJGE is a tough one to get a read on, for me. Based on the little I've read, it seems like he should be the lead back in CIN, with Scott playing a decent role as a change-of-pace back. I think CIN would like BJGE to be a noticeable upgrade over what they got from Benson last year, but from a purely production standpoint, I don't think such is too likely. Maybe BJGE is a big upgrade in pass protection though.

Rushes: 225

Rushing Yds: 875

Rushing TDs: 6

Recs: 18

Rec Yds: 135

Rec TDs: 0

 

[MAC_32]

For teams that don't get a RB2 early on I think he's a good plan B and a good flex option too. His ceiling is low, but he's going to get touches and the red zone carries. If I had him in dyno and I didn't need him I'd sell to someone who does. Uninteresting? Yea. But he has value.

 

[Phlash]

He's the kind of guy that will quietly put up 1200/12 and catch another 200 yards next year, be boringly consistent, but really bolster your RB2 spot which is where you should be able to grab him.

 

[mlball77]

I guess my issue with expecting BJGE to post double-digit TDs in CIN is the fact that the CIN RBs the last two years have only posted a total of 9 and 8 rushing TDs. I know BJGE punched in quite a few TDs for NE, but I just don't think he'll have near as much opportunity on that front in CIN. Admittedly though, I think he will have a more pronounced overall role for the Bengals.

 

[cheese]

I think you can pretty much ignore his role in NE and plug him in as the new Ced Benson. Whether you think that's a good thing or not depends on you (and of course what round it is). I expect him to be a low YPC workhorse with basically no threat to his job.

One of the easiest guys to predict just due to situation. RB18ish finish, no more or less.

 

[meyerj31]

240 carries for 980 yards, 7 TDs

20 rec for 120 yards

He's RB3 material with a limited ceiling of 160 PPR points.

I could easily form a list of 24 RBs I'd rather take in PPR.

 

[johnadams]

Not my guy. Wouldn't be surprised if he loses time to Scott and/or Herron. Average at best runner. I would not count on him to be a RB2 or even a RB3.

Forecast:

850 combined yards, 8 TDs, 12 receptions.

 

[Pots]

Cedric Benson

Rudi Johnson

These are the guys I think of with BJGE this year.

1300 total yards and 9 TDs is about what you can expect. Solid RB2, great RB3, and great value.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Green-Ellis had essentially a 2 year career with the NE Patriots. He proved himself to be a dependable player who never turned the ball over and excelled in short yardage situations. In those seasons, the Patriots scored an average of 515 points. That offense set up a host of scoring opportunities for BJGE which allowed him to score 24 TD's (6 more than the Bengals), 19 of which were from within the 10 yard line.

The Bengals scored 305 points last season.

The value that BJGE has is that he's not going to do anything stupid. But he's not going to do anything spectacular either. The large part of his value the last two seasons was because he was the finisher on a prolific offense. It wasn't because he's multi-dimensional (he has 4 games where he exceeded 1 reception). It's not because he's explosive (he has 5 carries of 20+ yards out of 510).

At the end of the day, he's moving to an offense that scoreboard wise the last 2 seasons, has been literally 60% of the offense that BJGE is coming from. On that basis alone, you could justifiably forecast a reduction of TD's down to 7. And given that the Bengals have averaged 9 rushing TD's the last 2 seasons...that's almost additional evidence that would back up such a forecast.

What BJGE has going in it's favor is that the last 3 seasons, they've handed the ball off to Cedric Benson 895 times. Could the motivation have been that during the last 2 seasons, they were hoping to recreate the beast the possessed Benson's body during the 2009 season? Who knows. But I wonder if they'll show such an allgiance to or reliance on BJGE. IMO, it's really the only way he'll even he able to ascend to RB2 value is to get 300 carries...and even then, TD's will still be more difficult to come by. At an ADP of 4.06 and RB21, it will be an uphill climb for him to outperform his draft position.

Prediction: 256 Rushes, 1003 Rushing Yards, 6 TD's; 14 Receptions 98 Receiving Yards, 0 TD's.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

I guess my issue with expecting BJGE to post double-digit TDs in CIN is the fact that the CIN RBs the last two years have only posted a total of 9 and 8 rushing TDs. I know BJGE punched in quite a few TDs for NE, but I just don't think he'll have near as much opportunity on that front in CIN. Admittedly though, I think he will have a more pronounced overall role for the Bengals.

Dalton, AJ Green, Gresham, and an offensive line that's coming into its own. It doesn't make me happy as a Browns fan to say this, but the Bengals have an up and coming offense that should provide the RBs with more scoring opportunities than the past few seasons. Marvin Lewis traditionally uses 1 back and I don't see that changing.

 

[lbouchard]

People that are expecting 1000 yards and double digits TDs are going to be sorely disappointed. The guy is average at best. He got majority of value due to TDs, but as previously stated, Cincy offense not nearly as good as Pats and I'm only expecting 6 or 7. He played against 4 man fronts more often than any back in football, and still had a low YPC. He doesn't fumble and can pass protect, I'll grant.

240 carries, 900 yards, 7 TDs, 11 catches, 80 yards, 0 TDs: 151 fantasy points(RB26 last year)

 

[bengalbuck]

I guess my issue with expecting BJGE to post double-digit TDs in CIN is the fact that the CIN RBs the last two years have only posted a total of 9 and 8 rushing TDs. I know BJGE punched in quite a few TDs for NE, but I just don't think he'll have near as much opportunity on that front in CIN. Admittedly though, I think he will have a more pronounced overall role for the Bengals.

The Bengals had 4 major gripes with Cedric Benson from what I and tell from public comments/insider speculation. 1st was his negative locker room presence as he was focused almost entirely on his own numbers and touches. 2nd was his weakness in the passing game. 3rd was his huge and increasing fumble problem. 4th was his lack of production in short yardage and goal line.The Bengals in the Marvin Lewis era have traditionally been pretty strong in short yardage and goalline running situations, but the last 2 years were exceptions. Part of that can probably be put at the feet of the interior line run blocking, but it seems the coaches also put a lot of the blame on Benson. With 2 upgrades at OG (Kevin Zeitler and Travelle Wharton) and a better short yardage RB, I would expect a return to the days of double digit TDs from the Bengals top RB.

 

[bengalbuck]

I guess my issue with expecting BJGE to post double-digit TDs in CIN is the fact that the CIN RBs the last two years have only posted a total of 9 and 8 rushing TDs. I know BJGE punched in quite a few TDs for NE, but I just don't think he'll have near as much opportunity on that front in CIN. Admittedly though, I think he will have a more pronounced overall role for the Bengals.

Dalton, AJ Green, Gresham, and an offensive line that's coming into its own. It doesn't make me happy as a Browns fan to say this, but the Bengals have an up and coming offense that should provide the RBs with more scoring opportunities than the past few seasons. Marvin Lewis traditionally uses 1 back and I don't see that changing.

I agree with all of this, but the one part I'd question is how much the 1 back history holds to form. While you are right that the Bengals have always had 1 RB who got the vast majority of carries in the decade under Marvin, that was also under 1 OC, Bob Bratkowski, until last season when Jay Gruden stepped in. Gruden seems to be much more of a proponent of RBBC than Bratkowski was. I suspect Marvin gives his OCs a lot of freedom with regard to decisions like this and that Gruden will be free to rotate backs much more if he wants to.That being said, I don't think that the draft fell in the way the Bengals were hoping as far as RBs were concerned. Doug Martin was one of the guys on their list when they traded down in the 1st but Zeitler was just a bit higher on their board. There have been some reports that they wanted Pead in the 2nd but he went a few picks before they were on the clock. Marvin mentioned they discussed trading up to the top of the 3rd round if a certain RB was available (I suspect Lamichael James) and that didn't happen. One of Marvin's press conference comments strongly implies that at pick 83 they were debating between Sanu and Bernard Pierce (who ended up going one pick late to the Ravens). Sorry for the long digression, but the point is that I think the Bengals definitely wanted to upgrade at RB in the draft because they wanted a tag team partner for BJGE. The value didn't quite line up, so they are stuck with what they have. Bernard Scott will get a decent amount of carries, but I don't get the impression that he is a guy the coaching staff loves, so BJGE should be able to take a pretty big chunk of the RB pie even though RBBC might be the ideal scenario of the OC, the Bengals don't have the horses right now to pull it off.

 

[mlball77]

Interesting points made from Great Lakes Mike and Bengal Buck. –Mike, I think the case you make that the Bengals O should be improved this year and give Green-Ellis more red zone opportunities than Benson has had of late is a fair one. In my view, they still won’t be an offense even close to the level of NE… at this point, but I do think they are moving in the right direction. But Green-Ellis might see a few more touches in the redzone than Benson has in the last year or two. –Buck, I wasn’t sure what to make of your point #4 about Benson being viewed as an unreliable short-yardage/goal line back by CIN brass, and further that BJGE should really be an improvement on that front. So, I looked up a few things in the Data Dominator and you were spot on with #4 (Benson ineffective as a goal line runner).

2011 rushing stats from inside the 5 yards line:

[*]Benson- 14 Rushes for 3 yards and 3 TDs

[*]BJGE- 20 Rushes for 20 yards and 10 TDs

2010 rushing stats from inside the 5 yards line:

[*]Benson- 20 Rushes for 17 yards and 7 TDs

[*]BJGE- 15 Rushes for 21 yards and 8 TDs

Ultimately, the last two seasons Benson had 34 rushes inside the 5 yard line and punched it in 10 times, while Green-Ellis had 35 rushes for 18 TDs from inside the five (reg season stats). So, Benson was only getting in the endzone in less than 1/3 of his opportunities and BJGE was scoring in over 50% of his. And, of note, they had pretty even opportunities (this really surprised me).

A couple of things I take away from all of this are: 1) If BJGE gets similar opportunities as what Benson got in CIN the last two years, then he’ll be getting about what he got in NE –and- 2) Green-Ellis was clearly more efficient at scoring TDs inside of the five.

However, with regard to #2, I don’t know how much of that is attributable to the skills of the two RBs in question and how much is attributable to their respective offensive schemes (and how D’s play them) and their offensive lines.

Wrapping this up, I still don’t love BJGE’s odds of being a double-digit rushing TD guy in CIN, but he could flirt with it and I think my original projection of 6 is too low. Benson was not effective punching in the ball from inside the five, so if BJGE is even a little better, he should get a couple more than what I was originally thinking. Plus, if the CIN O improves a bit this season, that could yield a bit more opportunity for BJGE.



Revised projection:

Rushes: 250

Rushing Yds: 975

Rushing TDs: 9

Recs: 18

Rec Yds: 135

Rec TDs: 0

ETA: I'm still not a big Green-Ellis fan, in general, as I don't see him as a special talent or even close. But he is in line to get a lot of work in CIN, and as discussed above, I was probably too conservative on his TDs previously.

 

[cvnpoka]

i would suspect the pats as a whole got inside the 5 a ton more than the bengals. a large percentage of the bengals inside the 5 touches went to benson and everyone watching the game knew it esp the defenses of the ravens and steelers. bjge, otoh, played against worse run defense and was not used as heavily so the d did not key on him.

i strongly suspect bjge's success rate is similar to bensons.

 

[eakfootball]

216/909/7

 

[Slapdash]

I expect him to perform better than Benson and be leaned on as the workhorse back. Should be good value as RB2. 325/1300/10

Eta: I think the inside the 5 stats mlball77 posted are very compelling.

 

[bengalbuck]

Interesting points made from Great Lakes Mike and Bengal Buck. –Mike, I think the case you make that the Bengals O should be improved this year and give Green-Ellis more red zone opportunities than Benson has had of late is a fair one. In my view, they still won’t be an offense even close to the level of NE… at this point, but I do think they are moving in the right direction. But Green-Ellis might see a few more touches in the redzone than Benson has in the last year or two. –Buck, I wasn’t sure what to make of your point #4 about Benson being viewed as an unreliable short-yardage/goal line back by CIN brass, and further that BJGE should really be an improvement on that front. So, I looked up a few things in the Data Dominator and you were spot on with #4 (Benson ineffective as a goal line runner).

2011 rushing stats from inside the 5 yards line:

[*]Benson- 14 Rushes for 3 yards and 3 TDs

[*]BJGE- 20 Rushes for 20 yards and 10 TDs

2010 rushing stats from inside the 5 yards line:

[*]Benson- 20 Rushes for 17 yards and 7 TDs

[*]BJGE- 15 Rushes for 21 yards and 8 TDs

Ultimately, the last two seasons Benson had 34 rushes inside the 5 yard line and punched it in 10 times, while Green-Ellis had 35 rushes for 18 TDs from inside the five (reg season stats). So, Benson was only getting in the endzone in less than 1/3 of his opportunities and BJGE was scoring in over 50% of his. And, of note, they had pretty even opportunities (this really surprised me).

A couple of things I take away from all of this are: 1) If BJGE gets similar opportunities as what Benson got in CIN the last two years, then he’ll be getting about what he got in NE –and- 2) Green-Ellis was clearly more efficient at scoring TDs inside of the five.

However, with regard to #2, I don’t know how much of that is attributable to the skills of the two RBs in question and how much is attributable to their respective offensive schemes (and how D’s play them) and their offensive lines.

Wrapping this up, I still don’t love BJGE’s odds of being a double-digit rushing TD guy in CIN, but he could flirt with it and I think my original projection of 6 is too low. Benson was not effective punching in the ball from inside the five, so if BJGE is even a little better, he should get a couple more than what I was originally thinking. Plus, if the CIN O improves a bit this season, that could yield a bit more opportunity for BJGE.



Revised projection:

Rushes: 250

Rushing Yds: 975

Rushing TDs: 9

Recs: 18

Rec Yds: 135

Rec TDs: 0

ETA: I'm still not a big Green-Ellis fan, in general, as I don't see him as a special talent or even close. But he is in line to get a lot of work in CIN, and as discussed above, I was probably too conservative on his TDs previously.

Great research, really well done. I knew just from watching all the games that he didn't get it done down in close (or on random 3rd and 1s not in the red zone) and knew it was something the Bengals coaches have mentioned multiple times since signing BJGE, but had no idea the specific numbers.Everything looks pretty close to what I'd predict, though I think that behind this OL, he should be able to average over 4 YPC, which could get him up to something like 1,050 yards. The Bengals OL was recently ranked 3rd best by profootballfocus and its potentially a very strong run unit. I think the reception numbers are a big unknown. I know Gruden would like to see the RBs get more catches and they think BJGE will be better at it than Benson. Wouldn't shock me if he caught 30, but I think 20 is a safer assumption until we actually see it happen.

I also think that some of the stats relating to BJGE's YPC vs. various defensive formations are a little misleading/explainable. Most of his rushes vs. many men in the box were in short yardage or late game when teams knew the run was coming. Those were the primary times when NE went to tighter formations. I also think his mediocre YPC vs. nickel defenses should take into account that he was running behind an OL that specializes in pass blocking with Aaron Hernandez instead of a FB, a bunch of small WRs, etc. Whereas in Cincy he'll be behind a bowling ball of a FB, a big OL that is better run blocking than pass blocking and big WRs and TEs that block well. (Not that Cincy's offense will be anywhere near NEs, but Dalton's not going to throw for 40+ TDs either and most of NE's advantage is in the passing game, not the run game.)

Short term, I think he'll have a fine year and be a nice value based on his ADP. In terms of dynasty, I do think the Bengals will be looking at a RB early in next year's draft, so he's not a guy I'm really targeting much from that perspective.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't buy this idea that BJGE is just a better goal line runner than Benson. I think you put Benson on NE and he scores as many times as BJGE does. That being said, Benson has been a total plodder the last two seasons. BJGE has been a plodder his entire career. He just happened to be doing it on a team that was always facing a defense that was focusing on defending the pass. I don't typically believe these silly stories about backfields being an even split, but I feel like Bernard Scott is likely the more talented back on this roster, although he did nothing last year to add credence to that thought. Either way, I just don't think feeding the ball 200+ times to BJGE will be a winning strategy for the Bengals so I'm expecting much less from him than others on this board. The poor guy is perpetually underdrafted, so maybe I'm contributing to that, but I won't be drafting him at his current ADP of 6.02 (RB23).

It may sound crazy, but after Lynch (RB8) I don't see value in many of the guys until I get to Hillis (RB32), with the exception of Greene and Turner (who I did not want until I really looked into his anticipated workload vs. ADP). This year I'd rather grab a RB in the first, perferably Mathews or Lynch, and then focus on other positions until the later rounds. I really like my odds if I can snag several of the following: Hillis (32), Ingram (34), Ridley (36), Starks (37), D.Brown (38), Blount (39), R.Williams (45), K.Smith (50), and Vereen (52).

Ridley or Vereen will outperform BJGE this year and they're both waaay cheaper. I like Ingram's chances of bouncing back and playing the 2010 BJGE role for the 2012 Saints. Basically, I think all the guys I listed are more talented than BJGE. Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cincy bring in another back, much like the Chargers just brought in Ronnie Brown.

 

[Lavachebeadsman]

255/1089/8

Great value if you can grab him in the 6th or 7th. Won't win you a week, but will provide solid numbers in your flex.

 

[rascal]

bump

 

[LHUCKS]

He'll basically have Benson's numbers...I don't see a ton of value at his current ADP.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

How many carries will he get vs. Scott?

 

[duaneok66]

How many carries will he get vs. Scott?

I don't know, but Scott won't get many.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

I don't buy this idea that BJGE is just a better goal line runner than Benson. I think you put Benson on NE and he scores as many times as BJGE does. That being said, Benson has been a total plodder the last two seasons. BJGE has been a plodder his entire career. He just happened to be doing it on a team that was always facing a defense that was focusing on defending the pass. I don't typically believe these silly stories about backfields being an even split, but I feel like Bernard Scott is likely the more talented back on this roster, although he did nothing last year to add credence to that thought. Either way, I just don't think feeding the ball 200+ times to BJGE will be a winning strategy for the Bengals so I'm expecting much less from him than others on this board. The poor guy is perpetually underdrafted, so maybe I'm contributing to that, but I won't be drafting him at his current ADP of 6.02 (RB23).

Pretty much my thoughts as well. Someone above said he's easy to project - I don't agree. I have a feeling I may be kicking myself for passing on him if he keeps the job all year; I just don't trust that he's talented enough to do that, even if he doesn't have a proven back-up.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Green-Ellis (foot) is inactive for Thursday's preseason game against the Packers, the Bengals' official site reports.

 

[RalphMouth]

Drafting tomorrow-

What's the latest on Green-Ellis' foot ?

Will he be ready for 20+ carries Week 1 ?

Could this be the type of injury that plagues him all season?

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

I drafted this guy to be my RB2 after I employed a upside-down theory. Basically he should be better than Benson and has a nose for the end zone.

If he gets 240 carries I see around 1000 yards and 10TD's.

 

[RalphMouth]

Drafting tomorrow-What's the latest on Green-Ellis' foot ?Will he be ready for 20+ carries Week 1 ?Could this be the type of injury that plagues him all season?

BUMP

 

[MechEng]

Bengals may lose another lineman

The Bengals have already lost OG Wharton for the year and now it looks like C Cook may be lost too. Cook is not spectacular, but losing your Center is never good.