Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.) (3 Viewers)

[Borden]

Posted this in the Lamar Miller thread but I think with a healthy Watson and the fact that you can get him a bit “later” he might be a good pick. He likely won’t be an all season stud but if he can give you a decent RB3 (back up) or Flex spot then it might be worth the pick.

Spoiler

Games 6/16, 37.5%

RuYa 361/888, 40.6%, 60.1/g

ReYa 163/327, 49.8%, 27.1/g

Rec 16/36, 44.4%, 2.67/g

TD 4/6, 66.7%, 0.67/g

”IF” season totals: 961.6, 433.6, 42.72, 10.72

”IF” Total PPR points: 246.56

 

[barackdhouse]

Just jumped into another MFL10 and see that @Sigmund Bloom is drafting out of the 12 spot. I'm at 10. 

 

[nightmare]

I just finished a MFL10 with the 1 minute clock. For QB's- A Rodgers, R Wilson went in the 5, D Watson 6th,
C Wentz 7th, T Brady, D Brees, C Newton 8th, K Cousins 9th, M Stafford, B Roethlisbuger, P Rivers, J Garoppolo 
J Goff, and A Luck 10th round. I took Brees and Roethlisburger so this skews the draft a little.

 I had a ADP sheet printed out for the first six rounds-I did it 3-4 days ago. It is outdated. On that sheet it seems
ALL the Qb's have dropped two rounds. J McKinnon was a mid-late 3rd and is now a late 2nd. TE's seem to be
holding in the same spots. R Gronk and T Kelce in the 3rd, Z Ertz in the 4th, And G Olson in the 5th. 

 

[avina1]

did a live draft (1 minute timer) for the first time, was pretty fun. just wanted to share my team!

qb: big ben, trubisky

rb: ezekiel elliot, ronald jones, royce freeman, nick chubb, marlon mack, jordan wilkins

wr: aj green, adam thielen, randall cobb, nelson agholor, calvin ridley, quincy enunwa, john brown

te: eifert, gesicki, ricky seals-jones

def: steelers, falcons

 

[Cobbler1]

So what players do you find yourself taking a lot?

For me it’s:

Qb: Luck, Tyrod

Rb: Ajayi, Hyde, Kerryon, Clement, Martin

Wr- Gordon, Landry, Watkins, C. Davis, Cole, DJ Moore, Ant Miller

TE: Gronk, Burton, Everett, Seals-Jones, Hurst

edit to add: I’ve only done Draft where there’s no defense, 18 man rosters

 

[Borden]

I just finished a MFL10 with the 1 minute clock. For QB's- A Rodgers, R Wilson went in the 5, D Watson 6th,
C Wentz 7th, T Brady, D Brees, C Newton 8th, K Cousins 9th, M Stafford, B Roethlisbuger, P Rivers, J Garoppolo 
J Goff, and A Luck 10th round. I took Brees and Roethlisburger so this skews the draft a little.

 I had a ADP sheet printed out for the first six rounds-I did it 3-4 days ago. It is outdated. On that sheet it seems
ALL the Qb's have dropped two rounds. J McKinnon was a mid-late 3rd and is now a late 2nd. TE's seem to be
holding in the same spots. R Gronk and T Kelce in the 3rd, Z Ertz in the 4th, And G Olson in the 5th. 

With the fast/one minute draft, I’ve noticed that people end up making more wild picks and I’m assuming letting the draft get sideways on them. Don’t take this one draft as a reflection of all drafts. I’ve seen 15 QBs go in the first 10 rounds and other drafts where maybe 5 went in the first 10 rounds.

 

[NCPanthersFan]

So what players do you find yourself taking a lot?

For me it’s:

Qb: Luck, Tyrod

Rb: Ajayi, Hyde, Kerryon, Clement, Martin

Wr- Gordon, Landry, Watkins, C. Davis, Cole, DJ Moore, Ant Miller

TE: Gronk, Burton, Everett, Seals-Jones, Hurst

edit to add: I’ve only done Draft where there’s no defense, 18 man rosters

Ending up with allot of Evans and TY shares thus far.  

 

[avina1]

So what players do you find yourself taking a lot?

For me it’s:

Qb: Luck, Tyrod

Rb: Ajayi, Hyde, Kerryon, Clement, Martin

Wr- Gordon, Landry, Watkins, C. Davis, Cole, DJ Moore, Ant Miller

TE: Gronk, Burton, Everett, Seals-Jones, Hurst

edit to add: I’ve only done Draft where there’s no defense, 18 man rosters

qb: stafford, big ben, winston

rb: ronald jones, sony michel, mckinnon, 

wr: marvin jones, thielen, TY, agholor, ridley

te: kelce, burton, gesicki, seals-jones

 

[barackdhouse]

I seem to have Cam, Chubb, Derrick Henry and Davante Adams on a lot of teams. I've done 7 MFL10s now and have only had one where I drafted in the top 6. I am currently doing one where I got the 1 slot. So I'm curious if there are some other names that I will get a lot when I draft early. Otherwise I've been taking OBJ or Barkley an awful lot because of draft slot.

Also Cooper, Ekeler, Kelvin and Vance McDonald.

 

[BoltBacker]

Ending up with allot of Evans and TY shares thus far.  

I'm with you on Evans, he lands on a lot of my teams but that may not be because I'm rating him higher at WR than most people. It may be because I just think too many RB's are going too early in a lot of these things.

I used to be interested in Ty, but until I actually here some good news about Luck I think I'll follow the heard and approach with caution.

 

[brun]

My Most Owned

RB - Darren Sproles
WR - Quincy Enunwa
QB - Jared Goff
TE - Jimmy Graham

Sproles & Enunwa are my flavor of the week fliers
Goff & Graham are guys I seem to like more than most

LeSean McCoy is my most frequent pick in the top 2 rounds

 

[Borden]

Cam and Eli

Giovanni Bernard

Hill, Fuller, Meredith, Albert Wilson

 

[NCPanthersFan]

Ending up with allot of Evans and TY shares thus far.  

Adding Jack Doyle to the list.  I will slow down until the end of June and then compare again.  

 

[BoltBacker]

Giovanni Bernard

Not buying the Mixon hype?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Just jumped into another MFL10 and see that @Sigmund Bloom is drafting out of the 12 spot. I'm at 10. 

happy to get a hunt/ODB start. late first draft positions feel better this year than last, and top 4 draws might not be such a big advantage. 

 

[BoltBacker]

happy to get a hunt/ODB start. late first draft positions feel better this year than last, and top 4 draws might not be such a big advantage. 

Is that because you aren't a big believer in that top tier of RB this season? Surprised.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Is that because you aren't a big believer in that top tier of RB this season? Surprised.

no its because if you can get 2 of cook/hunt/gordon/LF or 1 plus an elite WR like ODB or Julio, then you have a big enough advantage at RB or WR1 over the teams with top tier at RB to balance out their advantage at RB1. 

Last year 10-15 ADP:

• AJ Green
  
• Melvin Gordon
  
• Jordy Nelson
  
• Michael Thomas
  
• Jay Ajayi
  
• Jordan Howard
  

This year:

• ODB
  
• Fournette
  
• Gordon
  
• Cook
  
• Julio
  
• Thomas
  

 

[Borden]

Not buying the Mixon hype?

It is difficult to state my position on Mixon. He’s a great athlete and but what I saw from him in college, I guess you could call a “freestyle” runner. He’s good getting to the hole then making a LB who didn’t come down miss. Then maybe a safety. Then show the speed to get deep before a deep corner could get anything but a chase down tackle on him. Where he didn’t look like he was at his best was when he more play development of what you would see in the NFL. A crowded line of scrimmage with LBs coming down faster and OL not being as spread out. I think it’s something that he can learn though and in dynasty he’s still a good hold. If he came into camp or whatever last year and was over weight plus being behind the curve as far as “technical” running just makes me think that he might need some time to mature and learn. This isn’t to say I think he will do bad this year but he might not be this super volume guy. However, he is a good pass catcher and those receptions play into his skill set nicely.

For Gio, his volume for the first 11 games was pretty low. Until Mixon got hurt. Gio’s volume increased for the last 5 games into double digit carries in every game. 4 of 5 he averaged over 5 ypc (one bad game, 2.14 in the middle against Min). With the clunker game he still averaged 4.788 ypc over those last 5. I would hope that the coaching staff realizes that Gio deserves a bigger role. When you look at most of the RBs in Gio’s ADP range, there’s usually a few guys fighting for back field reps. It seems right now that it’s mostly just these two (we will see how the rookie does) and if Gio can get a bit of time share, it’s a win. If Mixon gets hurt, Gio is setup for success. 

 

[Arodin]

People always look at "best draft position" by comparing the guys near the 1/2 turn to guys at the end of the second round,  

I always feel like this misses a key edge to the top handful, which is also getting a better third round selection.  I am a big believer in depth, and see as big a dropoff mid-3rd as mid-2nd.  Even if the end-2nd is weaker (or the early second is stronger), taking a lesser rb2 to pair with a high 3rd round pick still feels better than OBJ+Fournette, paired with late 3rd value.

Your mileage may vary.

 

[BroadwayG]

By my calculations, picking first is about an 86 point advantage.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

People always look at "best draft position" by comparing the guys near the 1/2 turn to guys at the end of the second round,  

I always feel like this misses a key edge to the top handful, which is also getting a better third round selection.  I am a big believer in depth, and see as big a dropoff mid-3rd as mid-2nd.  Even if the end-2nd is weaker (or the early second is stronger), taking a lesser rb2 to pair with a high 3rd round pick still feels better than OBJ+Fournette, paired with late 3rd value.

Your mileage may vary.

i would still pick at top 4 draft slot if i had a choice, but i feel like the gap isnt as big an advantage as it was last year.

 

[Borden]

By my calculations, picking first is about an 86 point advantage.

What’s the average margin of victory for 1st vs 2nd place?

 

[James Brimacombe]

Anyone in here doing Best Ball drafts at DRAFT? I am playing in a lot of the $1 12-team Slow and Fast drafts and would love to play with you guys on the forums if interested. I have drafted over 300 of these so far this season so would love discussion on strategy on DRAFT. My username on DRAFT is Eaglezzz if you want to follow me and draft together.

Looking over my top 5 highest owned players at each position I have...

QB: Winston 25%, Carr 25%, Mahomes 21%, Goff 19%, Stafford 19%

RB: Ajayi 30%, McCaffrey 30%, Jones 30%, Yeldon 22%, Drake 21%

WR: Wallace 44%, C.Davis 31%, Lockett 29%, Shepard 26%, Doctson 24%

TE: Brate 24%, Walker 22%, Rudolph 20%, Seals-Jones 20%, Hooper 20%

I am typically drafting 3 QB, 5 RB, 7 WR, 3 TE early in the offseason just for safety reasons on my investment. As we get deeper into training camp and preseason I will tend to go with a 2/6/8/2 roster build.

 

[Borden]

Anyone in here doing Best Ball drafts at DRAFT? I am playing in a lot of the $1 12-team Slow and Fast drafts and would love to play with you guys on the forums if interested. I have drafted over 300 of these so far this season so would love discussion on strategy on DRAFT. My username on DRAFT is Eaglezzz if you want to follow me and draft together.

Looking over my top 5 highest owned players at each position I have...

QB: Winston 25%, Carr 25%, Mahomes 21%, Goff 19%, Stafford 19%

RB: Ajayi 30%, McCaffrey 30%, Jones 30%, Yeldon 22%, Drake 21%

WR: Wallace 44%, C.Davis 31%, Lockett 29%, Shepard 26%, Doctson 24%

TE: Brate 24%, Walker 22%, Rudolph 20%, Seals-Jones 20%, Hooper 20%

I am typically drafting 3 QB, 5 RB, 7 WR, 3 TE early in the offseason just for safety reasons on my investment. As we get deeper into training camp and preseason I will tend to go with a 2/6/8/2 roster build.

I’m using Draft almost exclusively this year. I just started to increase my 12 team drafts. I was put off of them for awhile because I entered a few that didn’t end up starting until a few hours after I entered and I ended up auto drafting a few because I had other things I had to do. That’s definitely a downfall of the live drafts early in the year. 

My name on there is Borden (same as here). I’m just starting to get to the point where I’m worrying about over investment in certain players. I’ve tried different combinations but 2/6/7/3 seems to be my go to. 

 

[James Brimacombe]

Thanks Borden. Those 12 team $1 slow drafts fill up pretty easy now, seems like I can get into about 5-10 a day with ease. The Fast drafts seem to fill within 15 minutes now. There is some edge if you can get others to auto draft, still plenty of times you get that guy that is drafting Henry and Witten. I like that the top 4 get paid in these leagues and usually right off the bat there are 1 or 2 dead teams because of drafting guys that are injured or that their roster construction is just bad in general. 

Last season on DRAFT I put in 221 entries and nearly doubled my investment. It is harder and harder to find an edge in Fantasy but I feel like Best Ball is the way to go right now and doing so many you can basically just memorize current ADP which helps for Redraft leagues.

 

[Borden]

Thanks Borden. Those 12 team $1 slow drafts fill up pretty easy now, seems like I can get into about 5-10 a day with ease. The Fast drafts seem to fill within 15 minutes now. There is some edge if you can get others to auto draft, still plenty of times you get that guy that is drafting Henry and Witten. I like that the top 4 get paid in these leagues and usually right off the bat there are 1 or 2 dead teams because of drafting guys that are injured or that their roster construction is just bad in general. 

Last season on DRAFT I put in 221 entries and nearly doubled my investment. It is harder and harder to find an edge in Fantasy but I feel like Best Ball is the way to go right now and doing so many you can basically just memorize current ADP which helps for Redraft leagues.

I agree 100%. I’m not at the same investment level as you but I put in $100 last year and started this year at $186 (I think). I’m all about the fast drafts. Especially, now that they fill up so quick. The other thing that I’m likely (now that my rankings are better) is that ADP isn’t adjusting or resetting. Guys are going off the board seemly all over the place and when other drafters not prepared or going off of ADP, it’s really crippling their teams. 

I know no one is supposed to go into a Draft with a concrete plan but for me, I’m leaving my last three rounds just for WR. There’s so much value still left at the end for best ball vs what is left for other positions that it’s just not worth filling out the WR group any earlier. There’s a few decent TEs (like Vernon Davis) at the end but not much. Have you noticed this? Or something else that really stands out?

 

[James Brimacombe]

The value at the end of the drafts for me is Tannehill if I want a QB3 (Rounds 17/18), Yeldon or Buck Allen at RB if I want a RB6, at TE I like RSJ or Watson for a TE3 if they are there the last couple of rounds. You are right at WR though so much value at the end of drafts. My main WR targets for rounds 16-18 Wallace, Lockett, Albert Wilson, A.Miller, John Brown, James Washington, Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams, Godwin, Moncrief, and Allison/Kearse if all those names are already off the board.

 

[barackdhouse]

happy to get a hunt/ODB start. late first draft positions feel better this year than last, and top 4 draws might not be such a big advantage. 

Yeah I decided to zig. I've got ODB out of the 10 like 3 times in a row. Decided to roll with Barkley. But ODB at the turn is almost criminal. 

 

[BroadwayG]

What’s the average margin of victory for 1st vs 2nd place?

100 points last year.

 

[BoltBacker]

By my calculations, picking first is about an 86 point advantage.

What about in 3rd round reversal?

 

[BroadwayG]

What about in 3rd round reversal?

70. Most of the value drop comes in the first two rounds. My formula is derived from average scored points from positional players in MFL10s the past 4 years.

 

[Borden]

For Draft, I found that 2000 points wins most leagues (and it’s a nice even number). Using that 2000 point goal...

QB = 300 (20/g)

RB1 = 300 (20/g)

RB2 = 250 (15/g)

WR x3 = 700 (233/WR and 14.6/g for each WR)

TE = 200 (12.5/g)

Flex = 250 (15/g)

This is just me trying to find a basic outline to work off of. 

 

[BoltBacker]

70. Most of the value drop comes in the first two rounds. My formula is derived from average scored points from positional players in MFL10s the past 4 years.

Thanks.

More fuel for the fire to simply switch every draft from "stale snake" to 3RR.

Friends don't let friends snake draft. It's a scourge on the hobby.

Or simply switch to auctions(I thought you did better in the auction than you seem to think you did BTW). 

 

[Borden]

I’m coming around on the WR early front. I think that you still have to go RB heavy after that but the team isn’t as bad as I thought. From the 10 spot I went Nuk then Julio. I’m a bit high on a Ronald Jones and I’m not terrified by Thompson so I like Guice more than most too. So taking these to in the 3rd and 4th was nice for me.

Going this also helped me shake my fear of mid to late TEs. 

 

[BroadwayG]

Thanks.

More fuel for the fire to simply switch every draft from "stale snake" to 3RR.

Friends don't let friends snake draft. It's a scourge on the hobby.

Or simply switch to auctions(I thought you did better in the auction than you seem to think you did BTW). 

Snaking the first two rounds, then 12th - 1st straight draft the rest of the way gives 12th a 10 point advantage over 1st and 40 points over 4th, which is the lowest.

I ended up ok in the auction. I just woke up in the morning too many times with no players and no-one up for bid still. Which left me making Jared Cook a top dollar player.

 

[Borden]

PFF MFL10 Article

 

[jabarony]

What's up with you guys in the current auction?  You don't like QBs and Def?

 

[barackdhouse]

Finished my 11th MFL10 today.  And along with two FFPC drafts, I have now drafted out of the 10 spot 6 times.

6 freaking times!  I actually like the spot, but cmon I wanna see some other draft slots.

I've had:

1 once

2 once

4 once

5 once

7 once

8 twice

Oh well getting Beckham at 10 over and over feels a little like stealing.  I took Barkley there in one and Hopkins in another, but still.

 

[BoltBacker]

PFF MFL10 Article

It's kind of ironic that the draft I liked least was Scott Spratt, who was the only guy that didn't draft RB in the first three rounds.

It's not that he didn't take RB in those rounds, it's the fact he didn't take any RB's in rounds 7-11 that was a mystery to me. Is A.Jones(GB) really going in the 6th round these days? Yeesh. They didn't publish the entire draft or all the teams so I don't know who else was available but I definitely am drafting Tevin Coleman over Jones. I get that they are beating the "high ceiling" drum pretty hard there but Spratt is really throwing a hail mary with many of those picks. 

I'm a zero-RB guy this year but there is no way that I would only take 4 of them in the first 18 rounds if I'm picking my first one late. Hopefully people will see this outcome and decide they need to draft RB even earlier.

 

[BroadwayG]

PFF MFL10 Article

It's articles and 'expert' drafts like these that keep my ROI up year after year.

 

[Borden]

It's articles and 'expert' drafts like these that keep my ROI up year after year.

I’ve been maybe too vocal on not liking PFF Fantasy (love normal PFF though) so I didn’t figure the need to say anything. I do try to post everything I find on best ball in here though and understand that my opinion isn’t the most important so figured I should post the article.

What do you disagree with in the article?

 

[BoltBacker]

What's up with you guys in the current auction?  You don't like QBs and Def?

All the defenses are up now..... but pace yourself. You only have so many roster spots left!

I thought the only QB of interest left was McCarron. But both he and Brissett are currently on the board. If the first day of summer hits and Luck STILL isn't throwing a regulation football how long can people hold out hope that he'll be ready for the regular season. It's hard to take anything seriously that comes out of that IND front office.

This weekend I was really hoping I could get one of those two QB's while you and @Maurile Tremblay had a bidding war for the other, but it didn't quite work out that way. My biggest regret of this auction has been the amount I spent on Aaron Rodgers early. If I had known both Bortles and Dak would be going for peanuts near the end I would not have spent as much as I did for Rodgers. 

The great thing about an auction is everything is so dynamic. 

 

[jabarony]

All the defenses are up now..... but pace yourself. You only have so many roster spots left!

I thought the only QB of interest left was McCarron. But both he and Brissett are currently on the board. If the first day of summer hits and Luck STILL isn't throwing a regulation football how long can people hold out hope that he'll be ready for the regular season. It's hard to take anything seriously that comes out of that IND front office.

This weekend I was really hoping I could get one of those two QB's while you and @Maurile Tremblay had a bidding war for the other, but it didn't quite work out that way. My biggest regret of this auction has been the amount I spent on Aaron Rodgers early. If I had known both Bortles and Dak would be going for peanuts near the end I would not have spent as much as I did for Rodgers. 

The great thing about an auction is everything is so dynamic. 

Not sure just over 10 bucks is peanuts.  Most QBs cost about the same.  Surprised you wouldn't bid higher. It looks like you have plenty of money left. 

 

[BoltBacker]

What do you disagree with in the article?

What do YOU disagree with? My biggest criticism of this draft(and most expert drafts) is guys are trying to swing for a homerun with every single pick. I guess it makes sense because who is really going to remember how you finished in a best-ball back in June if you finish last. Buf if you finish first you get to pound your chest a little. IF Aaron Jones turns out to be the three-down back in GB you get to point out that you were the one drafting him early in August. If Luck is 100% then both he and Hilton look like league winners. 

I'm with you, people typically think of me as some sort of PFF-hater but that's not really the case. Overall I do like their analysis. I don't like how people react to their rankings however.

 

[BoltBacker]

Not sure just over 10 bucks is peanuts.  Most QBs cost about the same.  Surprised you wouldn't bid higher. It looks like you have plenty of money left. 

But I also have a lot of roster spots left to fill, even after this weekend.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

This weekend I was really hoping I could get one of those two QB's while you and @Maurile Tremblay had a bidding war for the other, but it didn't quite work out that way. My biggest regret of this auction has been the amount I spent on Aaron Rodgers early. If I had known both Bortles and Dak would be going for peanuts near the end I would not have spent as much as I did for Rodgers. 

I don't think Bortles or Prescott went for peanuts. By my count, I overpaid for Bortles by more than $3. But I didn't have a choice. He and Prescott were the only starters left if you don't count McCarron, and I really only had one solid starter so far in Stafford. (I am hoping for the best with Tyrod Taylor, but it's hard to count him as solid. I should have bid more for Mayfield as insurance.) I needed another QB and would have been willing to pay probably up to $15 for Bortles (I was determined to get whoever was cheaper between him and Prescott), but QBs in general went for significantly more than I expected them to.

I think Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, and Marcus Mariota were very good values in hindsight. If I could go back in time, I'd have much preferred to bid them up a bit more instead of paying over $11 for Bortles. (Luck scares me, but the risk was more than priced in, IMO.) Heck, Drew Brees and Cam Newton went for only about $2.25 more than Bortles and Prescott. I'd happily pay the difference for one of them.

 

[jabarony]

Yeah. Prescott, Mahomes, and Mayfield (and I'll add A.Smith and Big Ben) were great purchases. 

 

[BroadwayG]

I’ve been maybe too vocal on not liking PFF Fantasy (love normal PFF though) so I didn’t figure the need to say anything. I do try to post everything I find on best ball in here though and understand that my opinion isn’t the most important so figured I should post the article.

What do you disagree with in the article?

Let's see...

Off the bat, anyone drafting 4 QBs in a 20 round draft should be automatically disqualified from any kind of participation in a best ball expert draft. If he came out ahead of time and said he was going to mimic a 'donation' owner, I suppose it would be ok.

Proclaiming a trio of QBs performing as the QB9 in a year is an extremely misleading stat as very few teams run one QB. You should be measuring against several samples of 2 QB results from the top 20 or so QBs.

I understand things change fast, but the picks for the displayed teams are way off of ADP, even for mid-May. That makes me question the skill level of these guys even more.

The proclamation that ceiling is the primary thing that matters is the icing on the cake. I'm sure there are worse summarizations of best ball strategy, but I can not think of any off the top of my head. Spiky is the new buzzword, and I am so happy for it. I need to make up for the increased rake somehow.

I don't know the last best ball article I read that was actually of substance. Most of them are empty words which I assume are printed to make a quota.

We have the data (at least for MFL10s) to make informative and substantiated conclusions, but it seems like no one is trying to do that.

 

[BoltBacker]

I think Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, and Marcus Mariota were very good values in hindsight.

So you're not spooked by Luck/IND? In your opinion how much should Luck go for in comparison to Bortles(based on where we are at today)?

I get the general sense that you and I are both a little higher on Bortles than most.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

So you're not spooked by Luck/IND? In your opinion how much should Luck go for in comparison to Bortles(based on where we are at today)?

I get the general sense that you and I are both a little higher on Bortles than most.

Luck does spook me (and I'd want to pair him with Brissett), but I'd still prefer him at $8.00 to Bortles at $11.23 pretty easily. Given that Bortles and Prescott both went for over $11, I'd pay at least $10 for Luck.