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Best defense over the course of a season? Yards vs Points, (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Hooper31
- Start date
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Is this even debatable?
Hooper31
Footballguy
Apparently. Cecil went on record today letting the world know that Denver's defense is historically great and that Seattle's wasn't worth being mentioned among the best ever. Denver led the league in fewest yards. Seattle led the league in fewest points (fourth consecutive year).
ZWK
Footballguy
It's better to look at per possession stats: yards allowed per drive and points allowed (to the opposing offense & FG unit) per drive. It's not a defense's fault if their offense throws pick-sixes, or if their offense has a bunch of three-and-outs that keep bringing the defense back onto the field. And it's not to the defense's credit if their offense has a lot of long slow drives that shorten the game.
Last year, Denver led the league in fewest yards per drive (24.47 yd/dr), and the team that led the league in fewest points per drive (1.43 pts/dr) is the Denver Broncos.
Last year, Denver led the league in fewest yards per drive (24.47 yd/dr), and the team that led the league in fewest points per drive (1.43 pts/dr) is the Denver Broncos.
Gotta say ultimately it's points because that is the outcome of the game-who scores more. I believe it's a combo of the two though.
100 years ago, I think Drinen posted some stats including TDs scored by the D. It skews the data a smidge. I only mention that because to consider does place some extra emphasis on points.
Cecil is a Broncos homer and that's their best D so this is predictable.
If I'm reading these links correctly, their yardage compares OK to 2000 Ravens but they allowed almost twice as many points 150-300 range. That's a lot to discard. At 7 a clip, I could imagine a reasonable window but that's too much.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/den/2015.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/2000.htm
I remember in 2008, this was a very interesting discussion. 3 teams were near the top, some in best ever category. Titans allowed 234 points and 4700 yards. Ravens allowed 244 points and 4100 yards. Haynesworth got hurt and maybe Finnegan and they allowed 1100 yards in the final three weeks. They were solidly in first and this made a mishmash. THe other team was the Steelers who allowed just 223 points and 3800 yards.
Those point and yardage totals would be on some best ever list, all in same year.
They were statistically the best D IMO. The Ravens were not far removed from a Supe and a top D and widely considered great. The Titans, like I said were playing great 12-1 before their collapse.
We got into SOS, all three teams played each other. Points scored by the D, special teams....it was a good debate.
This is the best year to compare top Ds IMO. Second best would probably be 86 Giants, legendary unit, but the Bears were better statistically. People only say "85 Bears."
100 years ago, I think Drinen posted some stats including TDs scored by the D. It skews the data a smidge. I only mention that because to consider does place some extra emphasis on points.
Cecil is a Broncos homer and that's their best D so this is predictable.
If I'm reading these links correctly, their yardage compares OK to 2000 Ravens but they allowed almost twice as many points 150-300 range. That's a lot to discard. At 7 a clip, I could imagine a reasonable window but that's too much.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/den/2015.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/rav/2000.htm
I remember in 2008, this was a very interesting discussion. 3 teams were near the top, some in best ever category. Titans allowed 234 points and 4700 yards. Ravens allowed 244 points and 4100 yards. Haynesworth got hurt and maybe Finnegan and they allowed 1100 yards in the final three weeks. They were solidly in first and this made a mishmash. THe other team was the Steelers who allowed just 223 points and 3800 yards.
Those point and yardage totals would be on some best ever list, all in same year.
They were statistically the best D IMO. The Ravens were not far removed from a Supe and a top D and widely considered great. The Titans, like I said were playing great 12-1 before their collapse.
We got into SOS, all three teams played each other. Points scored by the D, special teams....it was a good debate.
This is the best year to compare top Ds IMO. Second best would probably be 86 Giants, legendary unit, but the Bears were better statistically. People only say "85 Bears."
BoltBacker
Footballguy
"IS" or "WAS"? I don't know how anyone can argue that defense doesn't take a step back.
They lost arguably their best DLman and leading tackler at LB. Ware will 34 before the season begins. Talib is 30 going on 35 based on how much speed and quickness he has lost(outside his tweeting of course). He gets beat so badly he more or less has to tear the head off a WR so as not to get beat deep. He has entered the Joey Browner stage of his career where it's up to the official whether or not to call it or not.
Impartial Cecil claims the donk defense is super?! Next thing you know he'll be claiming CJ Anderson will be a 1500 yard back, oh and johny elway didn't bungle that whole contract situation. Badly.
Fariq
Footballguy
Did you mean Joey or Brandon?
I don't recall Joey being a penalty machine late in his career but maybe he was. Also, he was a safety.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Also a recency bias situation. The last game most people saw was a very good Panther offense get stymied in the SB.
Still can't figure out why CAR didn't game plan around Newton running more. As the game progressed he should have been rolling out on nearly every play. Seven months recovery time even if you do believe he was in more danger outside the pocket than inside. Six rushing attempts in that situation seems to be very conservative given the matchups and that it may be the biggest game of Cam's career. Just sayin'.
Pedro Cerrano Fan
Footballguy
Cecil is good for quite a few things in addition to this. For instance, he helped prompt a conversation with my then 10 year old son about what a taint is when he included a phrase "lick my taint" in his podcast. Thanks, Cecil.
Fariq
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Joey Browner was a pretty clean player. He just knows mixed martial arts and had hands you do not escape from if he gets a grip on you. So some ugly looking tackles at times. He was actually kind of too nice with his tackling technique at times.
Hooper31
Footballguy
I have serious doubts that anyone is going to make the argument that the team with the most wins should automatically be labeled the best defense.
Glad to know your "posting style" isn't limited to the FFA.
msommer
Footballguy
Team A, with the worst ST, gives the opponents the ball on Team A's 8 yrd line, Team B scores on 4th down
Team C, gives the ball to Team D on Team D's 8 yard line. on the next play Team D goes to the red zone and is stopped, kicking a FG on the 4th down
Team A gives up 8 yards only, but a TD. Team C gives up 84 yards and a FG
Which D is better?
It doesn't seem that hard to me (one actually stopped the other team for three downs and 'saved' four points)
Team C, gives the ball to Team D on Team D's 8 yard line. on the next play Team D goes to the red zone and is stopped, kicking a FG on the 4th down
Team A gives up 8 yards only, but a TD. Team C gives up 84 yards and a FG
Which D is better?
It doesn't seem that hard to me (one actually stopped the other team for three downs and 'saved' four points)
Hooper31
Footballguy
Commenting on your "posting style" is a personal attack. Okay. I can see how that might leave an emotional scar.
Not sure where you got the idea that anyone was fired. I walked away amicably. Do you need details to clear that up? Or can we just leave it at that. If you must know more PMs might be the right way to go. I would rather not soil my thread with your misunderstandings.
As far as "numbers can't convey", your opinion has been noted. I do notice that the phrase "#1 defense" gets used a lot. If you don't feel it should be used your opinion has been noted. Feel free to leave knowing the world knows your position on the matter. I will continue to ponder what makes a unit worthy of being called the #1 defense using the two most popular measures. If you disagree with me, please feel free to keep your opinion private and move along. Maybe you can start your own personal-attack-free thread. Thanks, and have a wonderful day.
Hooper31
Footballguy
I get what you're hinting at, but doesn't the phrase "over the course of a season" sort of make this a moot point?
msommer
Footballguy
Not really no. The rub is when, in the blow out they put in the third stringers and give up point by the droves and thereby muddle the statistics.
The most important task of the defense is to stop the other team from scoring. Only in very few and strictly limited circumstances would it be overall beneficial to a team to let the other team score. IMHO yards don't matter (as long as you keep the other team from scoring, or only scoring FGs) except in the field position game, which is to say, by allowing the other team as few yards as possible you have better odds on a short field. Which in turn helps your offense. Also important, but IMHO secondary.
Hooper31
Footballguy
I don't believe the "third stringer" is a real thing. Teams don't get to suit up that many guys. There are backup players, but I think you're attempting to create a scenario that doesn't really exist, or rarely exists. Using a larger sample size like an entire season means that outlier data like this isn't significant.
Hooper31
Footballguy
I'm on board with this notion, but it's unlikely that the average talking head on TV will embrace it in conversation. Someone else already mentioned it, but my guess is that we'll continue to see Denver's defense get labeled as the best from last year largely because they won it all. If Seattle had won it all I think their defense would likely get the same #1 label because they gave up the fewest points.
msommer
Footballguy
I disagree that I am creating a scenario, I am merely pointing out that if the defense changes strategy to e.g. play prevent in blowouts that will likely mean that the stats will show that the team allowed more points than if they had just kept doing what they are doing. I've never quite understood, why teams do that, except perhaps to keep some tricks up the sleeve for next week.
That aside I stand by my point that less points is the better defense. If you pair that with a half decent offense, you get a lot of wins.
Apart from that I am uninterested in crowning this defense or that defense as 'the best ever'. Talking head stuff, I let that go in one ear and out the other. You shouldn't let it get to you, it is merely media narrative, and for that facts or god forbid, logic, rarely comes into play
So relax, have a craft brew, and tune out when you feel commentators are dissing the great Seattle defense
msommer
Footballguy
Hooper31
Footballguy
What cause? I hear the phrase "#1 defense" thrown around a lot. Curious to hear what people think of when they hear that phrase. Do they think of points or yards? As far as objective statistics go I think I agree with the poster that mentioned pts/drive would be best, but that's a bit too complicated to conceive for the casual fan that's taking in a game on Sunday. Understandable that announcers don't rely on it.You're not helping your cause
Because you remained vague using the word contribution.
Do you go to a draft and say "with the fifth pick I'm going to take the guy that contributes the most?"
Good shtick man. Yet again contributing nothing to the thread but there's this air that you are.
Go with weather next please
This is good, certainly, but the game is played differently from the opponents 20yl, the 50 yl, and your 20 yl. Most obvious is the spacing and the way an OC would deem it OK to take a risk or take a shot.
"It's not a defense's fault that an O throws pick sixes." Absolutely true but they'll pay for it.
Most glaring is probably that they'll get tired and stats where time of possession has been proven to be significant.
One of the things with a bad O setting up a good D, is eventually the opposing offense will find a ***** in the armor. I don't think it's so uncommon to see a D look sound and then one play or one drive breaks the dam and the rest of the game is different. Pride? morale? It looks like a team has two defenses- the great one that started the game and the junky one playing in the third quarter after allowing a 70 yard bomb.
After years of playing Peyton, one of Fisher's philosophies was to not rush him but to sit back and try and be cute with the DBs. BB and some others would steal this theory against Peyton. You're guaranteeing a high scoring game but because the Colts D stunk, you're also planning on outscoring them.
One of the Pats Supes, they didn't have the best D and BB knew it going in. He employed a bend but don't break philosophy that the team really embraced. If their D was patient, eventually the offense would make a mistake they could pounce on. They had an awesome offense and the best weeks it looked like he was giving Brady a breather before they'd most definitely score again.
The last two paragraphs, nickel and dime sets, "prevent D" none of them are statistically good defenses and everyone knows it. It's all about not getting X amount of yards for a first. A common defensive set and philosophy is to not allow a single yard and maybe even make the O lose yards. There's a distinct difference in philosophy there that will skew possession stats dramatically.
You're missed. I don't know ya on FB but man I've known ya 20 years or nearly 20. Can you believe RSFF and thinking on that time? You're old! Beal too? Where'd he go? He vanished into thin air. Same with that big ox of a guy that knew his football- Chris? Anyway hit me up on FB sometime so I can like all your kid posts and wish ya happy birthday
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
If you really wanted to know you would have to break it down situationally, somehow. Find out what happens every time a defense bows their neck.
Riversco
Footballguy
In the modern NFL, no NFL defense can truly be great against every type of offense. You have vertical offenses, spread offenses, power running games, two tight ends going out as elite receivers, short passing games, and others. Defenses can be built on a scheme and built very very well and they can be great against several of these but if they draw the offense that counters them, they can look quite average.
There's also the copycat effect. A defense can look great for weeks and then one week they run into an offense that does some things they really struggle with. Coaches will see that and all start trying the same plan and suddenly that great defense doesn't look so great anymore.
I'm interested to see how effective the Patriots offense is this year because they should now have two elite pass catching TEs. When they Gronk and Hernandez they were unstoppable for a while.
There's also the copycat effect. A defense can look great for weeks and then one week they run into an offense that does some things they really struggle with. Coaches will see that and all start trying the same plan and suddenly that great defense doesn't look so great anymore.
I'm interested to see how effective the Patriots offense is this year because they should now have two elite pass catching TEs. When they Gronk and Hernandez they were unstoppable for a while.
Riversco
Footballguy
The obvious problem with grading by fewest points is in the case where the team offense is ball-control, eat up the clock, limit the possessions the other team has. The defense could actually be fairly bad but not give up a lot of points if they were hidden behind that kind of offense. The problem with fewest yards is if the defense is built to be a bend-but-dont-break. By design they will be ok with giving up yards as long as they force a mistake somewhere before the end zone.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
There is no exact science.
Total points can be skewed by the opposing defense turning turnovers into touchdowns, short fields after turnovers, garbage scores, etc.
Total yards can also be skewed by garbage yards, as well as penalties (for example, a 50-yard PI where the DB was clearly beat goes down as a penalty, not 50 yards allowed by the defense).
In the case of the 2015 Broncos, they have to go down as historically great, because of a) the time period they play in (that heavily favors offense), b) what they did in the postseason, and C) their overall numbers. Plus, the fact that they played in almost all close games helps, especially since there were four, maybe five, games they don't win without the defensive scores they had. They weren't just padding the defensive stats with pick-6's at the end of blowouts. Those were plays that directly influenced the outcome of games.
Total points can be skewed by the opposing defense turning turnovers into touchdowns, short fields after turnovers, garbage scores, etc.
Total yards can also be skewed by garbage yards, as well as penalties (for example, a 50-yard PI where the DB was clearly beat goes down as a penalty, not 50 yards allowed by the defense).
In the case of the 2015 Broncos, they have to go down as historically great, because of a) the time period they play in (that heavily favors offense), b) what they did in the postseason, and C) their overall numbers. Plus, the fact that they played in almost all close games helps, especially since there were four, maybe five, games they don't win without the defensive scores they had. They weren't just padding the defensive stats with pick-6's at the end of blowouts. Those were plays that directly influenced the outcome of games.
Hooper31
Footballguy
This why I specifically addressed "over an entire season". The items you're talking about are accounted for by large enough sample sizes. Is a single season a large enough sample size? Maybe not.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
The Broncos took out 3 of the best QB's of all-time. Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (twice). And when it mattered most, even Bill Belichick couldn't figure them out a second time. The SuperCam narrative going into the Superbowl was overblown. Conversely the Denver D was still being overlooked.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I think of the defense most likely to stop the other team from scoring or getting a first down at a crucial time. With a bonus to the defense most likely to get a turnover and possibly score their own.
So the simple answer is points over yards but it's a combination of a few things, the easily found stats being points allowed, turnovers, first downs allowed, then yards allowed - in that order imo. The "best defense ever" should rank high in all categories. One of the reasons I wouldn't include the Seahawks as one of the best defenses last year is they didn't get many turnovers.
Eta: you probably need to adjust for a defense on a team with a bad offense, but I'm not sure the best way to do that.
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moleculo
Footballguy
I vote points, but I will still argue the 2015 Bronco D > 2015 Seahawks D.
IMO, if you want a simple talking point, you could use either stat - it would be a shallow argument though, and one could easily dispute with other stats like yards/points per drive. Personally, I like to consider yards/attempt for both running and passing.
I'm always open to anecdotal evidence as well. For example, the 2015 Broncos had 3 OT games. In each game, the opposition had a possession. In 3 OT possessions, the Bronco D had 3 sacks, a fumble recovered, and gave up -20 yards. They didn't give up a single play for positive yards.
IMO, if you want a simple talking point, you could use either stat - it would be a shallow argument though, and one could easily dispute with other stats like yards/points per drive. Personally, I like to consider yards/attempt for both running and passing.
I'm always open to anecdotal evidence as well. For example, the 2015 Broncos had 3 OT games. In each game, the opposition had a possession. In 3 OT possessions, the Bronco D had 3 sacks, a fumble recovered, and gave up -20 yards. They didn't give up a single play for positive yards.
Riversco
Footballguy
I'd probably lean Seahawks D over Broncos D in 2015.
The Broncos somehow managed to miss playing almost all of the tough RBs in their schedule. They played Jamaal Charles once and he ran all over the Broncos D. The second time they met, Charles was out for the year. They played the Steelers twice must missed Bell both times because he was lost for the year. They played Eddie Lacy when he was busy trying to eat himself out of the NFL. They played the Bears but didn't have to stop Forte because he missed that game to an MCL injury. They played the Patriots twice but only after Dion Lewis was out for the year.
The Broncos faced one tough RB - Jamal Charles - and couldn't stop him.
The Seahawks played Matt Forte and shut him down completely with just 8 rushes for 18 yards. The Seahawks played Adrian Peterson twice and shut him down twice - once in the playoff victory.
So, I think I'd rather have the 2015 Seahawks defense over the 2015 Broncos defense.
The Broncos somehow managed to miss playing almost all of the tough RBs in their schedule. They played Jamaal Charles once and he ran all over the Broncos D. The second time they met, Charles was out for the year. They played the Steelers twice must missed Bell both times because he was lost for the year. They played Eddie Lacy when he was busy trying to eat himself out of the NFL. They played the Bears but didn't have to stop Forte because he missed that game to an MCL injury. They played the Patriots twice but only after Dion Lewis was out for the year.
The Broncos faced one tough RB - Jamal Charles - and couldn't stop him.
The Seahawks played Matt Forte and shut him down completely with just 8 rushes for 18 yards. The Seahawks played Adrian Peterson twice and shut him down twice - once in the playoff victory.
So, I think I'd rather have the 2015 Seahawks defense over the 2015 Broncos defense.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Adrian Peterson had 81 yards on 16 carries and a TD against the Bronco's. I heard he is a pretty good RB.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I guess NFC players don't matter FUBAR.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Oh, I thought we were comparing the 2015 Broncos D to the 2013 Seattle D.
For 2015, the Broncos D was obviously better, especially when you consider the beating Seattle took in their playoff loss combined with the fact that they blew four 4th quarter leads (and might have been five had the correct call been made in the Detroit game), one of which was an epic collapse against Cincinnati. They feasted on weaker QBs for sure, but in just about every game against a QB who would be considered top 10 (or borderline), their D got exposed badly in 2015.
For 2015, the Broncos D was obviously better, especially when you consider the beating Seattle took in their playoff loss combined with the fact that they blew four 4th quarter leads (and might have been five had the correct call been made in the Detroit game), one of which was an epic collapse against Cincinnati. They feasted on weaker QBs for sure, but in just about every game against a QB who would be considered top 10 (or borderline), their D got exposed badly in 2015.
Borden
Footballguy
I voted points. If my D gives up 1000 yards in a game but 0 points you're likely going to win. If your team gives up 100 points but 0 yards you're probably not going to win. ***These are obviously extremes used to illustrate a point. Please do not use these for any type of reference or discussion.***
There's flaws in using any type of single stat to use as a the only piece of evidence. Doesn't Football Outsiders have a giant formula for ranking defenses using stats? Why not just use this for the debate between the Seahawks and Broncos?
2013 Seahawks are -25.9
2015 Broncos are -25.8
There's flaws in using any type of single stat to use as a the only piece of evidence. Doesn't Football Outsiders have a giant formula for ranking defenses using stats? Why not just use this for the debate between the Seahawks and Broncos?
2013 Seahawks are -25.9
2015 Broncos are -25.8
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Deamon
Footballguy
Tough to really say. While I totally get the points thing, it's not really a be all end all stat. What if a team shreds your defense all game but their kicker keeps shanking fgs? I would almost be tempted to say that the best defense is the one that allows the other team to gain less ground on them.
