Not to early to start the discussion on which draft position is best for this year. Consider 10 and 12 team performance leagues and PPR. Teams draw for the right to select their draft position (you win the 1st in the draw, you can pick 1-10 or 1-12 depending on the number of teams in the league -- 2nd in the draw, you pick any position the 1st didn't pick, etc).
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Best Draft Position - 2008 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter orpguy
- Start date
MCguidance
Footballguy
Ok, I'll bite. For some reason, I like 3. I think its automatic that LT and AD go 1,2 or 2,1, and as much as I want them, I don't want to be wrong with that pick. I look for big things from Sjax (maybe even #1RB value), and if some of the mock drafts are any indication, I can get great value from the second round (such as a Colston) followed by a Grant/Jamal Lewis in the third. Again, I seem to be valuing Sjax a bit higher than most. Chances are I'm wrong, ha.
fsufan
Footballguy
i agree and then you get 2 back to back picks in the 2nd and 3rd round
MaddHatter
Footballguy
Ditto. You get the stud of your choice (best overall) than two premium WRs in your PPR league at the 2/3 turn. Can't go wrong there.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
People ask this question every season and the answer never changes. It doesn't matter where you draft from. Good fantasy players can win from any position.
Okay, great responses. All of you have assumed this, it appears, but I did forget to mention that it was a serpentine draft. And since most seem to think #1 is the best, let's assume that pick is gone... how do you rank the rest of the positions. If your opinion differs between 10 team and 12 team leagues, what would the difference be?
footballman_696969
Footballguy
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
I like one and two. Peterson is my pick even in PPR, which makes two interesting since odds are he's there. But one is secure and I prefer it. I'd probably be best off from two in a league where someone else took AD and left me LT. I really really like what I see at the 2/3 and 4/5 corners coming from slots 1-3/4/maybe 5. Tiers seem to line up nicely right now for those picking close to those corners, imo. The added benefit of having an elite RB makes those spots juicy as ever. It's still early, and I have drawn the 11 spot already, but I feel stupid for not suggesting 3RR before randomizing the order.
GL late slotters. We might need it.
GL late slotters. We might need it.
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
The earlier the better as a steady rule of thumb.
Must use the Banzai Method. Then the better drafters/owners win.
Must use the Banzai Method. Then the better drafters/owners win.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
You can win from anywhere. But it is best to have each team begin from an even starting point. There is no reason to have your chances at actually winning go from 30% down to 8% before a selection is even made. Even though "you can still win".
This has been a hotly debated issue in our league for a few years now and is sure to come up again as some owners are trying to switch away from Serpentine to one of the other non-auction methods. I've tried to come up with a statistical analysis for the 4 years I've been in our league but I don't think I have enough years data to see any patterns yet. I'm in a 15 team league and it appears that the middle draft spots 7-9 are the worst.
BigSteel, I'm curious as to where you came up with the "30% down to 8%" winning chance numbers. Is there an actual analysis somewhere or are you just throwing numbers out there?
BigSteel, I'm curious as to where you came up with the "30% down to 8%" winning chance numbers. Is there an actual analysis somewhere or are you just throwing numbers out there?
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
I dont think there is. But I know from the wcoff numbers presented over the years, its even far more drastic then what I stated.I believe just having the #1 pick the past 3 years has resulted in over 30% winners each time. With over 50% coming from the top 3 draft spots each year.Having played for 23 years, its always been pretty much the same result in standard serpentines.
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BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
That link also shows what they came up with for 2006...
UW72
Footballguy
That year it was somewhat odd, SA and LJ have been taken at 1.01 and 1.02 in most leagues with LT going at 1.03That year LT had 31 TDs and over 2300 total yards, while SA only played 10 games for 7 TDs and 1050 yards, LJ 19 TDs and 2200 total yards, that will make the diffrence for 2006.
bcr8f
Footballguy
That isn't automatic. LT went 3rd in a recent draft. Happens every year.
dirty_martini
Footballguy
Couple of factors to consider. If you are in a league where people like to deal and trades happen, it's much easier to trade with draft picks more even spaced - somewhere around the middle of the round. At least that's my experience.That said, I have never lost in a league when I turned the corner on a draft either from the front or from the back. It's probably more luck than anything. But I do have a strategy for turning the corners. Reach for one of the top TE's - with long breaks between picks you'll likely be weak at one position. A top tight end helps ease the pain. In the mid-rounds, use the back to back picks to clean out a tier at a position. Getting two of the four remaining tier three rbs gives you a better chance that one outperforms. In the later rounds, I'll grab two guys locked in a position battle. Or draft to trade. Look over the rosters of the teams in your league. Maybe take a teams rb handcuffs back to back. Stockpile talent at a position if some team looks weak there.And I'm curious, anyone compiled data on real-world results using 3rd round reverse?
MCguidance
Footballguy
Piggybacking off this... I want to give you a scenario, since I still grapple with it every year: You have drafted your two starting RBs and have 1 starting WR and it comes down to choosing another starting RB or a WR that is good but not as good of a value as your RB, whom do you take? The starting RB that will likely serve as a backup or trade bait or the WR who is definitely not as much of a draft value but will fill your need for a WR? I have always wavered back and forth. Last year I skipped the RB and it hurt me when Sjax went down. In mocks so far this year I have taken the RBs and seemed to come out just OK later with WRs. I am committed to the RB...unless you guys tell me different, ha. Thanks.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
Take Jason Witten.
You seem to be assuming away the possibility of taking TE or QB here. Why?Just to answer the question posed, I'd probably take the RB I like assuming there are other WRs I like enough that should be left for my next picks.
MCguidance
Footballguy
Good point, I always do that. I feel as if I can wait another round or two for a QB. Last year I waited too long. I will rethink that this year. I guess it comes down to value at present and value you think will remain if you pass up the WR. Decisions, decisions.Take Jason Witten.You seem to be assuming away the possibility of taking TE or QB here. Why?
Just to answer the question posed, I'd probably take the RB I like assuming there are other WRs I like enough that should be left for my next picks.
ATC1
Footballguy
I use the tier system to help me out with this, but I also take into consideration who your RBs are. If your #2 RB is Ronnie Brown, I would really consider taking the RB over if I had a guy like Edge.Take Jason Witten.You seem to be assuming away the possibility of taking TE or QB here. Why?Just to answer the question posed, I'd probably take the RB I like assuming there are other WRs I like enough that should be left for my next picks.
MAC_32
Footballguy
From best to worst:123456789101112Same as every year.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Actually, it was last year that was very odd. Unique actually. So much passing and so many RB injuries.UW72 said:
J-Rock
Footballguy
I had my best FFB season ever last year drafting from the 11 spot. Now, admittedly, I think I got a bit lucky. I went WR/ WR with my 1st 2 picks, Landed ADP in the 3rd and grabbed Derek Anderson on the week 2 waiver wire.
This will be my 7th season and I've never had one of the top 2 picks.
I tend to agree that it is less important where you pick than how you manager your draft and in season transactions.
This will be my 7th season and I've never had one of the top 2 picks.
I tend to agree that it is less important where you pick than how you manager your draft and in season transactions.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
1-4 you're getting great RB value, and a solid WR on the return picks in next round..
picking 9/10 ( ten team) or 11/12 ( twelve team) is a handicap..you'll get the pick of the litter in terms of WR's, usually the first one taken happens around these areas..so maybe you get Reg Wayne and Portis? not a bad start..
I prefer picking in the middle of each round, 5th or 6th..you get a shot a a good starting RB in round 1, and usually you'll see someone make a surprise move ahead of you, allowing a guy like Sjax to drop to your spot...but another benefit of picking 5th/6th, is that the trendy picks are gone..sure LT and ADP will be taken early, but sometimes guys picking that early, like to experiment with the darlings of the fantasy mags or fantasy websites, the trendy picks...when you get to #5/6, most of the trendy stuff is gone..you also won't be putting all your eggs in one basket, such as a guy picking #1 overall....its easier to recover from a busted pick or an season ending injury at #6, than it is to recover from losing LT at pick 1.1..that, and the fact that you sit until picks 20-21 to select again...thats a huge drop in talent from that #1 overall pick..I don't like to wait that long to select my next player..
picking 9/10 ( ten team) or 11/12 ( twelve team) is a handicap..you'll get the pick of the litter in terms of WR's, usually the first one taken happens around these areas..so maybe you get Reg Wayne and Portis? not a bad start..
I prefer picking in the middle of each round, 5th or 6th..you get a shot a a good starting RB in round 1, and usually you'll see someone make a surprise move ahead of you, allowing a guy like Sjax to drop to your spot...but another benefit of picking 5th/6th, is that the trendy picks are gone..sure LT and ADP will be taken early, but sometimes guys picking that early, like to experiment with the darlings of the fantasy mags or fantasy websites, the trendy picks...when you get to #5/6, most of the trendy stuff is gone..you also won't be putting all your eggs in one basket, such as a guy picking #1 overall....its easier to recover from a busted pick or an season ending injury at #6, than it is to recover from losing LT at pick 1.1..that, and the fact that you sit until picks 20-21 to select again...thats a huge drop in talent from that #1 overall pick..I don't like to wait that long to select my next player..
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
points scored over the course of the season is proabbly a better indicator than winning the league when it comes to tring to determine what draft spot is best....once you get to playoff time, anything can happen on a week to week basis, so the above stats may not be a true reflection of which spot is best...I realize there may be some significance, but one could argue how much it really matters........
you can win from anywhere
but having 3 of the first 25 picks is a good plave to start......
you can win from anywhere
but having 3 of the first 25 picks is a good plave to start......
Captain Hook
Footballguy
If you look in articles from last year, Jeff Pasquino did an article on draft positions and using FBG weighted values for draft slots showed the total values and thus percentage differences in draft spots for 10, 12, and 14 team leagues for serpentine, third round (only) reversal and bonzai drafting formats
