THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
Curious as to why?? I have AP in a ppr and would love to move him for Drew but i doubt the other owner does it.
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Best RB After Chris Johnson in Startup Dynasty (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bob Magaw
- Start date
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I also own Drew & would not take AP for him. My league is non-PPR.I feel that AP is more consistent than MJD + we can only keep guys for 3 years so that plays a role as well.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I recently took MJD #3 overall in a PPR startup dynasty, 16 teams, behind CJ and then Rice, and over Peterson.
It was very difficult. And slightly experimental. Typically, I say AD #1 overall. But in a dynasty, which we all like, I think MJD has an up and coming OLine (whereas Peterson's is getting worse) and definitely gets the catches.
If I did the same draft again, there's like a 50% chance I'd take Peterson instead. That's how close they are, it was literally a "how do I feel when i click" type pick for me.
I have always been the biggest Peterson supporter, just find the thread from last year about how some guy was gonna take MJD over AD at #1, and I lambasted him. But it led to some great discussion, and it turned out that we were pretty much both right. They were practically interchangeable. I had 3 championship teams...a dynasty that i was sittign on Rice/Charles/CJ, an MJD redraft, and an AD redraft.
The MJD and AD teams were practically identical. I could have swapped one for the other and almost every single game I played would have been the same.
The biggest reason I have for MJD>AD in a dynasty is this: slight injury concern and catches. No way in hell do I take anyone but AD number one in a non PPR, and if he had another 40+ catch season next year...which I actually expect, then he'd absolutely be my number 1.
CJ had an amazing season. But do we really think he'll have a team pushing for a record giving him almost THIRTY touches a game down the stretch?
Do we really think his YPC won't regress SLIGHTLY from the near record that it was?
Do we really expect him to rip off a new record amount of huge runs for TDs? How many 50+ yarders will he really have?
I think that CJ will be a top guy for years. As will AD and MJD. I wouldn't fault anybody for taking any one of them first overall. But for me, here's how it breaks down:
PPR dynasty: MJD, but if AD has 40+ catches again, I beat myself up cuz I like AD more
non ppr dynasty: AD. I liek where CJ's headed, and he had an amazing year, but I think AD had a "down" year and his yardage comes up, TDs stay high (maybe not 18, but high) and he has the same amazing year potential.
redraft, either style: AD is my man for now. He's been there, done that, and still hasn't reached his ceiling yet, IMO. I think that Johnson's year this year is Peterson's sometime in the near future, and Peterson's got a pretty darn low floor of ~RB 3 right now.
It was very difficult. And slightly experimental. Typically, I say AD #1 overall. But in a dynasty, which we all like, I think MJD has an up and coming OLine (whereas Peterson's is getting worse) and definitely gets the catches.
If I did the same draft again, there's like a 50% chance I'd take Peterson instead. That's how close they are, it was literally a "how do I feel when i click" type pick for me.
I have always been the biggest Peterson supporter, just find the thread from last year about how some guy was gonna take MJD over AD at #1, and I lambasted him. But it led to some great discussion, and it turned out that we were pretty much both right. They were practically interchangeable. I had 3 championship teams...a dynasty that i was sittign on Rice/Charles/CJ, an MJD redraft, and an AD redraft.
The MJD and AD teams were practically identical. I could have swapped one for the other and almost every single game I played would have been the same.
The biggest reason I have for MJD>AD in a dynasty is this: slight injury concern and catches. No way in hell do I take anyone but AD number one in a non PPR, and if he had another 40+ catch season next year...which I actually expect, then he'd absolutely be my number 1.
CJ had an amazing season. But do we really think he'll have a team pushing for a record giving him almost THIRTY touches a game down the stretch?
Do we really think his YPC won't regress SLIGHTLY from the near record that it was?
Do we really expect him to rip off a new record amount of huge runs for TDs? How many 50+ yarders will he really have?
I think that CJ will be a top guy for years. As will AD and MJD. I wouldn't fault anybody for taking any one of them first overall. But for me, here's how it breaks down:
PPR dynasty: MJD, but if AD has 40+ catches again, I beat myself up cuz I like AD more
non ppr dynasty: AD. I liek where CJ's headed, and he had an amazing year, but I think AD had a "down" year and his yardage comes up, TDs stay high (maybe not 18, but high) and he has the same amazing year potential.
redraft, either style: AD is my man for now. He's been there, done that, and still hasn't reached his ceiling yet, IMO. I think that Johnson's year this year is Peterson's sometime in the near future, and Peterson's got a pretty darn low floor of ~RB 3 right now.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Also, I'd add that Rice is literally an entire tier below for me. Still PROBABLY number 4 overall, but if I don't have picks #1-#3, or #4 if somebody ahead of me grabs Rice, I'd definitely be trying to trade down.
Because i think while very talented, and with the possibility of more TDs, I think he has way too much influence from situation to be considered as reliable as the others, and isn't in that elite tier talentwise.
Because i think while very talented, and with the possibility of more TDs, I think he has way too much influence from situation to be considered as reliable as the others, and isn't in that elite tier talentwise.
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
great post Instinctive!
Tanner9919
Footballguy
I'll take neither one over Ray Rice or Shonn Greene..ADP fumbles too much, he gets nicked up from time to time, and, his YPC avg has steadily dropped in each season since he joined the NFL.
are we even sure CJ3 should be considered in the top 5 , since the drop-off rate for 2k backs in the years following that feat is high ( meaning CJ3 will probably crash to earth with a paltry 1300 rush yards in 2010).
I'd almost bet that the SD running back, whichever rookie they select, will probably finish with more yards than CJ3 or ADP.
and then there's the Redskins RB situation...and MJD...
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Instinctive
Footballguy
I'd easily take that bet. The Chargers don't exactly have expert run blocking anymore, and the team belongs to Phillip Rivers. They know that's how they can win.
Greene is, iirc, about the same age as Peterson/CJ/MJD, and may be older than Rice/CJ???? I seem to think he's older than most guys in his position would be.
AD's fumbling hasn't exactly cost him a lot fantasy wise. And Emmit Smith's fumbling, Walter Payton's fumbling, etc...all got corrected, and they fumbled considerably more than AD their first 3 seasons in the league, iirc.
Rice had Cam Cameron, a great defense, and a QB that was ok. Only one real receiving threat, and he got the ball a lot. They kept McGahee, which says something to me, and they got Boldin...with Mason still there, where do you think Boldin gets his catches from?
I think Rice has Addai-like seasons (with less TD opps) ahead of him, which is great, but typically not top 4. JMO
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
johnson became more valuable when they deepmphasized lendale white...chester taylor has moved on...
as was noted, a lot of HoF RBs had as many or more fumbles than peterson in their first three seasons... typically their fumble percentage went down over time.
a RB in SD (matthews?) would be attractive, and not a surprise if they are top 10 (imo, no way spiller drops there - he could also have that kind of potential), but johnson and peterson are coming off historically good 2-3 year stretches to begin their career...
its not like peterson has been a fluke... some people were saying since peterson was a manchild freshman at oklahoma that he would be a great pro, possibly one of the best ever, and so far he hasn't done anything to dissuade scouts of that notion... that said, definitely thinking about taking MJD before him (he outscored him in this league's scoring system last year, rice was about the same)... rice could be in the conversation.
it is a football cliche to say that a player is "fastest on the field"... johnson is one of the fastest players in the history of the game (like, deion, darrell green fast), and almost certainly is the fastest front-line RB the game has seen (bo jackson was off the charts quick in the 40, which is why some scouts said he was the best prospect they had seen at the position)... making him more dangerous, it is functional speed, he can translate to the field... he is playing fast, not just track-wise... he couples that elite speed with other important attributes... good running vision and instincts, the patience to let blocking develop, great open field running skills (cutting and stop-start ability, lateral quickness, elusiveness, etc)...
also, he has very good hands & likely to be top 3-5 any given year at RB recptions/yards... and he got promoted to goal line RB as a soph... one of the few RBs that is a true feature RB, staying on the field on third downs, & in short yardage and goal line situations...
don't see how johnson isn't consensus #1 in basically any format... peterson & MJD are a bit below (possibly rice gets included, or a bit below those two - his being a few years younger could be a sort of equalizer)...
you would have a lot of people taking you up on the bet between johnson and a potential 1st round RB in SD (whoever that might be?)...
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Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
For me it's Michael Turner in Non PPR leagues. I felt he was really starting to come on right before that sprained ankle. Right now, in leagues where I'm in the middle to late middle of the draft, I'm targeting Turner (non PPPR).
In non-ppr I could see it, though I'd personally rather have Gore or SJax, both decent duel threats, so even if they don't have a good rushing day they can make up for it in receiving.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I disagree, I don't see the similarity between those two guys. Addai and the Colts don't get a ton of rushing Td's, so it's not like some other guy is vulturing TD's away from Addai. However, last year there were a few games that were blowouts where the backups on the Ravens came in and mopped up and ended up with several Td's. That happened to Chris Johnson 2 years ago but last year he got most of those Td's on his resume. If that same type of thing happens this year or in 2 years for Rice, the guy will have monster seasons considering the amount of receptions this guys can get.Addai had about as good of a season he can have with the Colts last season by staying healthy and doing what he can in that offense with Peyton Manning. I'd be surprised if someone told me that they saw the future and last year was Ray Rice's best year in his career. I think that guy is on the incline and someone you want on your fantasy teams.
cr8f
Footballguy
And scoring system.
ADP
Footballguy
Fantasy football is so much about "what have you done lately". Even for dynasty purposes. CJ is hot right now cause he had best season this year. If ADP comes out with 2000 yard season next year and CJ falls back to earth. Then everyone will be all over ADP. Both are great backs.
Either way, you can't go wrong with any of top 4 backs. My preference...
1. ADP
2. CJ
3. Rice
4. MJD
5. Gore followed closely by SJAX.
Either way, you can't go wrong with any of top 4 backs. My preference...
1. ADP
2. CJ
3. Rice
4. MJD
5. Gore followed closely by SJAX.
golfguy
Footballguy
mine is pretty similar:1.cj3 or cj2kj whatever you want to call chris johnson2. adp3. rice4.mjd5.sjax6.gore 7.addai8.jstew9.mendenhall10.dwill/granta few of my leagues have some big penalties for fumbles. i see the top 4, then a drop off, then a small drop off between gore/sjax and addai, etc. then a big drop off to dwill and grant.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I can see what you mean when you say they definitely aren't the same type of runners, but I think that the statistical progression could be close. I think that yardage wise, it would not surpris eme if Rice doesn't top that total again in his career. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing.And I wanted to add, iirc addai has had a 1500 total yard and 15 TD campaign, so this past year wasn't exactly his peak year. I could see Rice being a guy who gets around 1000 rush yards, around 350-450 rec yards, and 9 TDs. Consistently. Which is GREAT.
But it isn't on the level of MJD/AD/CJ, so that's why my tier 1 is three guys.
golfguy
Footballguy
are you serious? a guy that just came off a 2000 combined yard season in his 2nd season, with a great Offensive Coord. and a good line and a solid defense is going to drop to 1350-1450 combined and avg 1 more td?that's more then a tad bit off i would say. rice's balance and vision is top notch. quite frankly i don't see MJD in the same tier as CJ and ADP (though for ranking i'd put them there because u can't have 27 tiers). last year was the first time he went over 1000 yards not to mention he is going into his 5th season and plays on a bad team. i like mjd but he takes a lot of big hits because he looks for contact and i really think that will shorten his career imo.
Chris Johnson had more carries his rookie year than Peterson did, who was splitting time with Chestor Taylor.
Instinctive
Footballguy
It's funny that you say that about MJD. He's had 941-768-824...and never went over 200 carries.He's had 14+ TDs 3 times...which is 3 times more than Rice has ever had. Or 2 more times than Peterson. Or more times than...see where this is going?And then when the HALL OF FAME backfield partner left, he had above his career average in receptions, a career high TD mark, career high rushing attempts and yards, and, iirc, his third top ten fantasy RB finish.I could be off on Rice. I suppose. But he's only 1 year younger than MJD. And the last guy to come into the league like Ric, as close as I can find, is Steven Jackson.He blew onto the scene in 05 and in 06 with a MONSTER year. Of course, without that monster 06, his career year, what does Steven Jackson average?Right about 1100 rushing yards and 320 receiving yards. And that's not counting his 600 rush yard rokkie season, which would bring the average down.So my prediction on Rice, consistently just above 1000 rushing yards and 350-450 receiving yards...huh. Right on line with Steven Jackson.Is Rice as talented as SJax? I sure as hell don't think so. But that's just me. And we all have our own thoughts on these things, and it's fun to debate every little point. I just don't think I can find a single reason as to why that prediction is so impossible to believe...
With the Ravens having better WR's and Flacco going into his 3rd year, i expect him to not check down so much. Rice should still get his rushing yards, but i wouldnt expect receiving numbers like he had next year. I think 1100 rush yards and 400 receiving yards is a fair number to expect from him over the next several years, barring injury of course.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
it seems there are a few important questions about rice... depending on how they are answered, they could alternately be worrisome or exonerating?
1 - will he always be relegated to the same role he has now, ceding goal line duty to mcgahee? anecdotally, westbrook, who he reminds me of, took on a larger role later in his career.
2 - will he suffer a dramatic dropoff in receptions (78 is admittedly a big number - is it unsustainable?)... when OC cameron overlapped with tomlinson, he had 100, 79, & 50+ (a few times) receptions. cameron could move on, but it is hard to predicate decisions on indeterminate future events that MIGHT happen (& its not like rice would turn into a pumpkin just because he got a new OC - he had similar rushing yards in '09 to consensus higher dynasty picks peterson and MJD, with fewer carries). BAL has improved their WR corp, adding boldin and stallworth (while retaining mason). stallworth, though, has never really fulfilled his potential... boldin seems to miss time regularly, and as sort of the peterson of WRs, with an extremely physical, aggressive & violent playing style, could also have attendant longevity concerns.
* nice side-by-side highlight reels of MJD & rice at youtube... after watching this, i felt like i had imbibed too much during st. patrick's day (seeing double
)... not sure if MJD runs a LITTLE bigger than rice, but after watching this, it isn't clear there is too much MJD can do that rice can't? both built like fireplugs, with mesmerizing open field moves...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKSscQX9fNs
1 - will he always be relegated to the same role he has now, ceding goal line duty to mcgahee? anecdotally, westbrook, who he reminds me of, took on a larger role later in his career.
2 - will he suffer a dramatic dropoff in receptions (78 is admittedly a big number - is it unsustainable?)... when OC cameron overlapped with tomlinson, he had 100, 79, & 50+ (a few times) receptions. cameron could move on, but it is hard to predicate decisions on indeterminate future events that MIGHT happen (& its not like rice would turn into a pumpkin just because he got a new OC - he had similar rushing yards in '09 to consensus higher dynasty picks peterson and MJD, with fewer carries). BAL has improved their WR corp, adding boldin and stallworth (while retaining mason). stallworth, though, has never really fulfilled his potential... boldin seems to miss time regularly, and as sort of the peterson of WRs, with an extremely physical, aggressive & violent playing style, could also have attendant longevity concerns.
* nice side-by-side highlight reels of MJD & rice at youtube... after watching this, i felt like i had imbibed too much during st. patrick's day (seeing double
)... not sure if MJD runs a LITTLE bigger than rice, but after watching this, it isn't clear there is too much MJD can do that rice can't? both built like fireplugs, with mesmerizing open field moves...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKSscQX9fNs
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golfguy
Footballguy
couple of things. 1. rice is 2 years younger the mjd (rice just turned 23 in jan, and mjd will be 25 by the time the season starts).2. mjd is going into his 5th nfl season, rice into his 3rd (and really didn't play much at all his rookie season) with a 107 carries for 454 yards 4.24 avg not amazing, but pretty solid for a rookie. so while mjd may have some solid years left, rice should still be going strong while mjd is declining. again i'll note the mjd looks for a lot of contact and backs that run with a punishing style like that normally don't last as long. mjd might be the exception because of his build though. 3. i think the comparison's to steven jackson are way off. i think you are neglecting how bad the rams whole team is, their oline is horrible, their defense is horrible. they are never winning games to get easy yards in the 4th quarter, etc. baltimore is a lot better then rams. young stable qb, some decent wrs now, and a good defense. his catches may go down, but i would still expect to be elite at his position 45-60 catches is well above avg.and jackson's rookie season, um, their was a guy there names marshall faulk. i'm not even bringing up the missed games due to injury for jackson which have been there. 4. if you always look at who HAS done great to predict who will do great, you'll miss a lot of opportunities. i'm just saying i think your numbers on rice a bit off imo. i don't mcgahee having the season he did last year i.e. 14 tds. so if he drops down to only say 10tds and rice gets those other 4 that puts rice up at 12 tds.i also don't like the jags oline or team i think they are on the decline. so i would rather have the guy on the better team that should warrant more tds opps.now the question is this if i have rice and cj3, do i move cj3 to get mjd?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Yeah their moves, vision, quickness all appear very very similar. Main difference between the two for me is MJD has more power at the point of contact and RR has more long speed.it seems there are a few important questions about rice... depending on how they are answered, they could alternately be worrisome or exonerating?
1 - will he always be relegated to the same role he has now, ceding goal line duty to mcgahee? anecdotally, westbrook, who he reminds me of, took on a larger role later in his career.
2 - will he suffer a dramatic dropoff in receptions (78 is admittedly a big number - is it unsustainable?)... when OC cameron overlapped with tomlinson, he had 100, 79, & 50+ (a few times) receptions. cameron could move on, but it is hard to predicate decisions on indeterminate future events that MIGHT happen (& its not like rice would turn into a pumpkin just because he got a new OC - he had similar rushing yards in '09 to consensus higher dynasty picks peterson and MJD, with fewer carries). BAL has improved their WR corp, adding boldin and stallworth (while retaining mason). stallworth, though, has never really fulfilled his potential... boldin seems to miss time regularly, and as sort of the peterson of WRs, with an extremely physical, aggressive & violent playing style, could also have attendant longevity concerns.
* nice side-by-side highlight reels of MJD & rice at youtube... after watching this, i felt like i had imbibed too much during st. patrick's day (seeing double)... not sure if MJD runs a LITTLE bigger than rice, but after watching this, it isn't clear there is too much MJD can do that rice can't? both built like fireplugs, with mesmerizing open field moves...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKSscQX9fNs
Instinctive
Footballguy
Ok, go ahead and discount the SJax comparison if you like. And I know he had Faulk his rookie year that's why I didn't include it in the averages.To answer this question: No, for sure no. As a guy who owns the Z56 team with Rice-CJ4.24-Charles, I can say for sure I wouldn't move CJ for MJD.I'd move Rice for him. Definitely. But then again, that MJD owner is smart and thinks Rice is a downgrade from MJD. Which he is.It will be great to revisit this thread and see what Rice's future stats are.golfguy said:
Horses Mouth
Footballguy
Aardvarks
Footballguy
Wrong.Adrian Peterson's relative lack of carries in his rookie year were because he was hurt. He missed 2 full games and limped around with an MCL in 3 others. In those 2 games he missed, Chester carried 53 times. That's why Chester's 2007 stats look like he was "sharing" with Adrian. In reality, Chester averaged 9 carries per game when Peterson was healthy.
The fact that Peterson *was* hurt further hammers home my point that Chris Johnson is #1 in any ranking imaginable. Chris Johnson doesn't get hurt. He also doesn't fumble. Peterson does both.
--Chris Johnson is #1. Anyone who disagrees is just trying to get attention, or they bet against him last summer, took Forte instead, broke out in hives, and... hell, double down... bet against him one more time, hope he sprains a knee.
--Adrian Peterson is #2. It's ok to be second place, nothing more and nothing less. I'd be happy with him on my roster. That Metrodome concrete will eat him up over the years, though.
--MJD is #3, though in dynasty I'd rank him behind Rice. MJD has 1200 career touches including returns & playoffs. And he's averaged less than 3.5 yards in 11 of his last 26 games. Little man wear down.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
fumble concerns seem to be a recurring theme for some with peterson...
i think rice fumbled 4 times in the last seven games of '09 (?)... haven't looked at a season breakdown/distribution, to see if this contributed to him getting less scoring opps late (if there was any discernible effect, imo it probably wouldn't have been the sole one)...
as noted above, a lot of HoF RBs had as many or more fumbles as peterson at a comparable stage of their careers... when i think of RBs that had such a serious problem with fumbles that it was a drastic impediment to their careers, they were lesser RBs (like tim worley & cleveland gary). tiki barber had issues until relatively later in his career, but don't recall if he lost snaps due to this?
i think rice fumbled 4 times in the last seven games of '09 (?)... haven't looked at a season breakdown/distribution, to see if this contributed to him getting less scoring opps late (if there was any discernible effect, imo it probably wouldn't have been the sole one)...
as noted above, a lot of HoF RBs had as many or more fumbles as peterson at a comparable stage of their careers... when i think of RBs that had such a serious problem with fumbles that it was a drastic impediment to their careers, they were lesser RBs (like tim worley & cleveland gary). tiki barber had issues until relatively later in his career, but don't recall if he lost snaps due to this?
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Instinctive
Footballguy
Um, Chris Johnson gets hurt too. He just happened to get hurt in the playoffs his rookie year and not at the beginning, so he just recovered in the offseason. If that Ravens game was week 3, who knows ho wmany games he'd have missed.MJD---I may have to go dig this up again, because every year we see this. Age does a RB in. Not milage. And the guys who produce longer than their age, like Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis, etc...have high milage with their age, are used to taking hits, and score TDs. It kind of sounds like MJD to me................................
This stupid myth comes up every single year, and then SSOG posts all the relevant data and the fog clears. Then it goes back to being the same the next year. High touches is not equal to breaking down.
Unsustainably high touches is different. LJ's 1000 or so touches in 2 seasons is different. 300 touches a year is sustainable. Easily.
Banger
Footballguy
yikes I disagree with almost everything in this post.
Aardvarks
Footballguy
Wrong again.That "injury" in the playoffs vs. Baltimore 2 years ago was an ordered "hit" by Rex Ryan- Bart Scott ripped his ankle 180 degrees under the pile. Chris Johnson had 100 total yards in the first 22 minutes and Ryan knew a playoff exit was near. So he ended CJ's day. That is a fact, not conjecture or a rumor. There's even more to the story but Jeff Fisher is too classy to call out Ryan for any of it.
Chris Johnson has never missed a game in the last 2 years, nor has he even been listed as questionable one time on an NFL injury report. You can't say that about any other starting running back in pro football.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
peterson hasn't missed many games in his three seasons, and has alleviated concerns entering the league he might be "brittle"... as to the fumbles, a lot of HoFers fumbled (dickerson, etc), and turned out OK.i'm not sure i would try & build a case on johnson being superior because he "doesn't get hurt" (of course we can observe he has been admirably healthy & resilient in his first two years)... for the same reason we can't predict injury, we can't predict non-injury - there is inherent randomness... do you think if a DB explodes into his knee at the exact same angle and with the same force as mcgahee's horrific knee injury in the fiesta bowl, he won't be damaged?
these issues are imo extraneous and don't get to the heart of things... don't get me wrong, i'm not saying if johnson missed 8 of his first 32 regular season games, it wouldn't have impacted our thought process on his value... but if he had missed a game or two in his first two seasons, and he and peterson both had the same amount of fumbles (off the top of my head, i think peterson has had something like 3-4-7 in first three years?)... i'd still like johnson better...
his unique constellation of traits (including, but not restricted to, being more explosive, with greater top end speed, better hands in the passing game, possibly better vision and instincts, cutting ability and COD?) puts him in position to be more productive on the field.
he broke faulk's combined yardage mark (& peterson by about 700 yards - that is about 40% more!)... TDs were close (peterson - 18, johnson - 16)
* most people don't need convincing johnson is the #1. if somebody was determined in thinking peterson is #1 (johnson needs to prove it one more year?), i'm not sure this argument would change their mind?
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Instinctive
Footballguy
An ordered hit. In the NFL today. Where it didn't make news and nobody was fined. Huh. That sound to me like a bitter-fan-after-playoff-loss, but even then the fact remains he was injured and couldnt keep going in the most important game of the year. So it does happen. And like I said, who knows how many games would have been missed if that wasn't the last one of the season. If it is a fact, can you link it from a reputable source or two? And would you like to address any of the other points, or just conveniently avoid them?
I think with another great season, he cements his status as #1. And I have absolutely no issue with anybody taking him at #1. I might even take him at #1, as I said, my MJD-AD-CJ wavering would probably lead to a different choice every single draft day. But it isn't 100% clear cut. Peterson's receptions are improving (doubled) and he had an "off" year rushing. And Taylor is gone. He could just as easily have the same type of magical season Johnson just got done with.
Aardvarks
Footballguy
At the risk of derailing the topic (sorry Bob), the ordered hit by Rex Ryan on CJ in that playoff game was bandied around (links below). Cameras did catch Ed Reed bending him in half after one play, then the Bart Scott ankle job was 2 plays later. Bart's "hit" was totally hidden. CJ left after that one. He demanded a numbing shot in the locker room - even screamed about it - and got his wish. But Fisher decided The Franchise was too valuable. That's why CJ stood on the sidelines during the 2nd half, seemingly pain-free. His ankle was numbed... Rex Ryan 1, Jeff Fisher 0.
This didn't go public for 2 reasons: 1) You couldn't see Bart Scott wrench the ankle, and 2) Fisher wouldn't bite when reporters asked. Fisher will get Ryan back one day, to be sure. And finally, the reason I know this to be fact is because I know the trainer -and- I was in the football business for 10 years. Take it or leave it. I'm not concerned.
http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2009/01/14/did-rav...-chris-johnson/
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01...-chris-johnson/
Chris Johnson has the most talent of any back. The most speed. The best vision. The most underrated blockers in the NFL. The most ground-committed offensive coordinator. The softest grass for his knees. The most single-season yards from scrimmage in history. The most untapped potential in the passing game. He doesn't fumble. He doesn't get hurt. He's #1.
This didn't go public for 2 reasons: 1) You couldn't see Bart Scott wrench the ankle, and 2) Fisher wouldn't bite when reporters asked. Fisher will get Ryan back one day, to be sure. And finally, the reason I know this to be fact is because I know the trainer -and- I was in the football business for 10 years. Take it or leave it. I'm not concerned.
http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2009/01/14/did-rav...-chris-johnson/
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01...-chris-johnson/
Chris Johnson has the most talent of any back. The most speed. The best vision. The most underrated blockers in the NFL. The most ground-committed offensive coordinator. The softest grass for his knees. The most single-season yards from scrimmage in history. The most untapped potential in the passing game. He doesn't fumble. He doesn't get hurt. He's #1.
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CJ would likely be my #1 pick, but i have to say it seems you are passing around alot of opinions as facts. The "most untapped potential in the passing game" part is actually a laughable statement, no offense of course.The most committed ground game, really?, what about the Jets?
Anybody claiming as fact that someone has the best vision is clearly a biased opinion as well.
I do agree he is the fastest though
HenryMuto
Footballguy
1)Peterson
2)Johnson
3)Rice
4)Drew
That is how I rank them for a PPR Dynasty start up.
If this thread was started last year 99.9% would have said Peterson. Sure CJ had a great season but man he was over used last year. Tenn has like nothing else to offer so he will continue to be overused and that worries me.
2)Johnson
3)Rice
4)Drew
That is how I rank them for a PPR Dynasty start up.
If this thread was started last year 99.9% would have said Peterson. Sure CJ had a great season but man he was over used last year. Tenn has like nothing else to offer so he will continue to be overused and that worries me.
dmac37
Footballguy
Startup Dynasty is all about trying to figure out the next 3 years with upside to the future. I may end up being very wrong but for some reason I can't buy into Chris Johnson long term. I will put my money where I think the talent is long term:
1- AD
2- Rice
3- MJD
4- J Stew- 2nd in talent behind AD IMO
5- CJ
1- AD
2- Rice
3- MJD
4- J Stew- 2nd in talent behind AD IMO
5- CJ
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
While these are all good backs, I have to give some value to who has a chance to be on a really good/competitive team as well, at least in the near future. I think Chris Johnson has some questions there, but they finished strong last season and I think Fisher is a coach who keeps his teams in contention. MJD has the most questions, since they were in realistic contention for a playoff spot until they barely lost to the Colts. I just don't expect them to be that competitive, so I think that hurts him.
Peterson is a question mark as well. Yes, I think Favre will play and they'll be competitive...but this was a dynasty discussion. Does anyone think Favre plays past 2010 (if there is a 2011 season)? Beyond that, they still have Childress and nothing exciting at QB. That makes me uncomfortable.
Rice seems to be in a really good situation with an up-and-coming team. I'd have to go
1. Chris Johnson
2. Ray Rice
3. Peterson
4. MJD
I'd reverse 2 and 3 in redraft because I think Favre plays. I really like Peterson's talent but I don't have any confidence in the Vikings front office, Childress as a coach and I don't see Jackson or Rosenfels getting it done at QB.
Peterson is a question mark as well. Yes, I think Favre will play and they'll be competitive...but this was a dynasty discussion. Does anyone think Favre plays past 2010 (if there is a 2011 season)? Beyond that, they still have Childress and nothing exciting at QB. That makes me uncomfortable.
Rice seems to be in a really good situation with an up-and-coming team. I'd have to go
1. Chris Johnson
2. Ray Rice
3. Peterson
4. MJD
I'd reverse 2 and 3 in redraft because I think Favre plays. I really like Peterson's talent but I don't have any confidence in the Vikings front office, Childress as a coach and I don't see Jackson or Rosenfels getting it done at QB.
