Just thought I'd throw in my 2 cents, since I've been doing some research to prepare for my keeper league rookie draft and I have the #2 pick.I normally don't do this level of analysis on players, so I'm very interested to read others' reactions. I should preface by saying that this is really a "rough draft" of my opinion so far. I'm 100% certain that it will change by the time I draft (next Saturday).Stats:McFadden (OAK): 6'2", 210 lbs., BMI - 27Mendenhall (PIT): 5'10", 225 lbs., BMI - 32.3Stewart (CAR): 5'10", 235 lbs., BMI - 33.7Johnson (TEN): 5'11", 200 lbs., BMI - 27.9Rice (BAL): 5'8", 205 lbs., BMI - 31.2Forte (CHI): 6'2", 216 lbs., BMI - 27.7Jones (DAL): 6'0", 212 lbs., BMI - 28.7
Thomas Jones is a pretty good back and he didn't put up impressive stats in Chicago. I don't think Forte is as talented and I don't think the situation has improved. I'll be surprised if he cracks 1,000 rushing yards this season. He might be able to do it solely on the basis of a large workload, but I doubt it.
This longtime Bears fan is going to have to disagree slightly with this one. I agree that Jones is a pretty good back, but I've seen enough of Forte, with a much worse run blocking O line than Jones had, to believe that he is more skilled at finding a hole, making one when there is nothing there, and at receiving.
I could easily see Kevin Jones getting 50% of the carries by midseason. This is just an ugly situation.
From a fan perspective, I couldn't be happier with the Bears' backfield depth right now. From a fantasy perspective, this is a much bigger concern IMO. Jones is a different type of runner, more powerful and from the looks of it faster as well. I would be concerned owning Forte just because you just don't know how this will play out.
I'm not too excited about Kevin Smith either. Yes, he has the inside track to a starting job, but he's a third round talent on a team that has failed to produce a top FF RB in quite a while. I think his supporting cast is better than Forte's and his competition for touches is weaker, but he'll probably struggle.
I agree 100%.
I don't see Chris Johnson being the top rookie RB because he won't get enough carries. Unless he averages an insane yards/touch like MJD, it will be all but impossible for him to finish inside the top 15 in standard formats. LenDale will get 200-250 carries and the goal line work.
I agree with this as well, but of the rookie running backs, nobody has the potential for more breakaway plays except perhaps Felix Jones from what I've seen (although I am wondering about putting Stewart in that category). Of course, with Jones being a smaller back and running behind MBIII on the depth chart, his upside is limited and his future is uncertain (er, not like the rest of the RB's...lol).Johnson seems to be exhibiting some growing pains, and frankly his size and style combination scare me a bit for long term durability.
IMO McFadden, Stewart, Rice, and Mendenhall have the most upside this year. That said, I wouldn't feel comfortable relying on any of them as a RB2 in my redraft leagues. It's likely that at least one of these guys will break out this season, but it's difficult to predict who will do it.
After looking at the YouTube highlights, I'm leaning heavily towards Stewart for pure running ability. He's big, he has moves, and he makes holes where there are no holes. I am very concerned from a fantasy perspective about McFadden, Mendenhall, and Rice. Maybe I just haven't watched enough highlight videos yet, but from what I've seen (and I admit that I have NO awareness of college football AT ALL), they all appeared to benefit from big, gaping holes to run through in college. Given my choice between a large, fast back that can make his own opportunities (as Stewart appears to have been) and a large, fast back who has proven only that he can hit the hole on time, I'll take the former.There are also concerns about talent at the position already in place for all 4, and although it looks like McFadden's opportunity in the short term is probably the best (followed by Rice, Stewart, and Mendenhall IMO), Kiffin just named Fargas the starting RB in Oakland. With another recent draft pick in Bush pushing the depth chart, the field is pretty full. Enough to push McFadden to elite status faster, if he is an elite back, but if he's just going to be solid or worse it will take a lot of time for that to emerge (time he'd be sitting on my bench). Probably the same concern about Rice and Mendenhall. We should know more about Stewart's long term prospects sooner.BUT (and that's a big but), we don't really know what Stewart can do at this level, since we haven't seen him play yet (and won't, from how it sounds, before the season starts). We also don't have any idea what his role will be either short- or long-term with Williams in the backfield. Carolina has been too much a RBBC team for my taste and I don't have a handle on whether that will be changing. This is a major concern.So, for this year and the next 3, when it comes to rookies especially the O-Line situation should probably help narrow down the field.Based on the Draft Dominator O-Line Rushing Rankings:McFadden (OAK): MediocreMendenhall (PIT): GoodStewart (CAR): MediocreJohnson (TEN): GoodRice (BAL): MediocreForte (CHI): PoorJones (DAL): GoodFor dynasty purposes, if I do not need to count on production this year (so a RB4, hoping for a stud at some point in the next 2-3 years), I am learning towards this order:Johnson (maybe the best combination of talent, O-line, and opportunity)Stewart (long term I like his talent more than any of the rest except for Jones)Mendenhall (good o-line, long term should be "the complete package", and PIT has shown that they will use whichever RB produces)Rice (most likely to get a starting job sooner rather than later)Forte (if his supporting cast was better, I'd put him MUCH higher - I'm just not convinced that the Bears will put a professional offense together in the next few years)McFadden (with all of the above, I'm starting to put him in a "most likely to bust" category in my mind)Jones (the existence of MBIII is a big issue for me here...he is electric but will he maintain the high level that he brings out of college if he doesn't get the playing time? That's a huge gamble to me and will take a LOT of time before it resolves)I also realize I've completely neglected Kevin Smith here - that's because I'm not convinced that any RB can be a successful stud on the Lions, especially with their history and STACKED passing game right now. Fatal flaw in my logic? Probably.
If I really needed to count on production THIS YEAR, I would go with this order at this point:JohnsonForteSmithMcFaddenStewartRiceJonesMendenhallAs you can tell, I don't think FWP is going to be re-injured. Obviously, if you disagree, you'd have to put Mendenhall higher on this list (probably after McFadden - before or after Stewart is a toss up IMO).Looking forward to hearing reaction. Rip me apart, fellas....ETA: BMI info.
