Better draft position - 8 or 12 (1 Viewer)

[Chefb2016]

12 team PPR league with yardage bonuses and TDs worth 10 pts.  This is a single season league and home league...QBs tend to be overvalued.  

I drew the 8th slot and have the opportunity to swap to the 12th spot.  

Knowing my league, there’s a very good chance that 2 of - 

Hunt/Cook/Fournette/Barkley/Allen would be there at end of 1st.

Do I take the swap?

 

[Avery]

I (thought) I liked the turn.  Like grabbing two players in a roll and that helps to control the draft.

Having said that, in one league we get to pick our draft position and I grabbed that bottom turn and ended up regretting it.  Missed a shot at a top tier player that was dropping that went a couple of picks before me.  Nice to be able to grab a couple of players in a row but there can be a lot of picks between your picks and you can get on the wrong side of a run.

Please give your thoughts on my keeper trade question.  Thanks! 

 

[bkterps]

Personally, I think there is a chance that you could still get 2 of them at 8 anyway, especially if you are saying some might pull the trigger on the top 2 QB.  I'm assuming that's why you mentioned they tend to overvalue the QB position.  You would have pick 8 and 17.  If you project the top 17 it could include the following:

RB: Gurley, Bell, DJ, Elliott, Kamara, Gordon, Fournette, Hunt, Cook, and Barkley (10 players)

WR: Brown, OBJ, Hopkins, Allen, Juio (5 players)

QB: Whoever they see as #1 (1 player, maybe 2)

TE: Gronk or Kelce (1 player)

So, if you think there is a good chance that 2 QBs, or a QB and a TE, that leaves with you 2 of the above 15 RB and WR

 

[fightingillini]

I have Fournette, Hunt, Gordon, Cook and Barkley in a tier below the elite tier top 5 RBs.  Question is......out of these RBs, does one REALLY stand out?  If yes, I would stay put and hope that RB is there at 8.  If no, I would rather take what's left at 12 and pair up with a WR like OBJ.  If you take Hopkins at 8, It's not likely one of the top 10 RBs will get to you at 17. 

So it depends on your tiering of RBs.  If you're like me and you have those 5 RBs very close to each other, I would rather draft 12 and get one plus an elite WR like OBJ or Julio or Allen (I am assuming Brown and Hopkins will be gone before 12).  If you have a RB (better to be 2 of the 5, so that you're guaranteed of getting one) of those 5 that's closer to the elite tier, then I would stay put and take that RB and hope you get a Michael Thomas type WR in Round 2.

 

[beerbuff]

In the first two rounds it really doesn't matter. In later rounds having the turn gives you a chance to start runs. If there is a player you really love that might fall to 8 than stay put, if not take the turn.

 

[Gally]

I much prefer the 12th slot over the 8th slot unless there is a player I really want and think I can get him at 8 and not at 12.  Otherwise I prefer the end.  I find it much easier to plan my team and draft much more connected.  I can plan picks better and don't mind the long break between picks because I can get a feel for the ebb and flow of the draft. 

 

[Chefb2016]

With this being a Houston-based league, I think it’s very possible that Hopkins is taken before 8.    The league is hardly chalk picks....who is the player at 8 if he falls?

Bell - not likely to fall unless holdout drifts 

Elliott - Don’t see him falling with Cowboy fan picking 2nd

Gurley - after last season, no way he falls

Antonio Brown - he has always gone in top 5, no reason to think this season is different.

David Johnson - A wild card....he could drop...is he the guy?

Camara - Not a lock to go in top 7...but is he more certain than any of Hunt/Cook/Fournette?

Hopkins - With a league full of Texans fans, not likely he lasts.

Beckham - Anyone’s guess.  He could fall...but is Beckham at 8 measurably better than Jones/Thomas/Allen in the 11/12 turn?

What should my goal be at 8?  Or at 12?

 

[Chefb2016]

I much prefer the 12th slot over the 8th slot unless there is a player I really want and think I can get him at 8 and not at 12.  Otherwise I prefer the end.  I find it much easier to plan my team and draft much more connected.  I can plan picks better and don't mind the long break between picks because I can get a feel for the ebb and flow of the draft. 

This is the reason why I would want the 12.  The ability to take back to back picks is big.

 

[Chefb2016]

I have Fournette, Hunt, Gordon, Cook and Barkley in a tier below the elite tier top 5 RBs.  Question is......out of these RBs, does one REALLY stand out?  If yes, I would stay put and hope that RB is there at 8.  If no, I would rather take what's left at 12 and pair up with a WR like OBJ.  If you take Hopkins at 8, It's not likely one of the top 10 RBs will get to you at 17. 

So it depends on your tiering of RBs.  If you're like me and you have those 5 RBs very close to each other, I would rather draft 12 and get one plus an elite WR like OBJ or Julio or Allen (I am assuming Brown and Hopkins will be gone before 12).  If you have a RB (better to be 2 of the 5, so that you're guaranteed of getting one) of those 5 that's closer to the elite tier, then I would stay put and take that RB and hope you get a Michael Thomas type WR in Round 2.

Would be more likely to take a Fournette/AJ Green combo at 8/17. 

If if I were to go Jones/OBJ at 12/13, is that a winning strategy?

 

[fightingillini]

If if I were to go Jones/OBJ at 12/13, is that a winning strategy?

Sure it could be.  Issue with that is....you're going to need to take 3 RBs with the next 4 picks, which makes you easy to read.  Your leaguemates drafting in the 8-11 holes will understand that, so expect them to snipe RBs in Round 3.  So it really depends on how your league drafts.  You would be taking your 1st RB at pick 36.  There could be 20 RBs off the board before you select one.  While I would love OBJ and Julio, I would have a hard time with a RB like Alex Collins as my RB1.

Personally, I would rather go RB-WR.  Gives you the most flexibility.  I would go WR-WR only if the top 10 RBs went in the first 11 picks.  Which means you would get Hopkins and OBJ or Hopkins and Julio.  I think there is a big dropoff after 10 RBs.  But if you think 10 RBs could go with the 1st 11 picks, then you should stay put at pick 8.

 

[Chefb2016]

Sure it could be.  Issue with that is....you're going to need to take 3 RBs with the next 4 picks, which makes you easy to read.  Your leaguemates drafting in the 8-11 holes will understand that, so expect them to snipe RBs in Round 3.  So it really depends on how your league drafts.  You would be taking your 1st RB at pick 36.  There could be 20 RBs off the board before you select one.  While I would love OBJ and Julio, I would have a hard time with a RB like Alex Collins as my RB1.

Personally, I would rather go RB-WR.  Gives you the most flexibility.  I would go WR-WR only if the top 10 RBs went in the first 11 picks.  Which means you would get Hopkins and OBJ or Hopkins and Julio.  I think there is a big dropoff after 10 RBs.  But if you think 10 RBs could go with the 1st 11 picks, then you should stay put at pick 8.

The one thing to keep in mind is that QBs tend to really be overvalued in this league...very likely Rodgers/Watson/Brady/Wilson will all be taken in first 2 rounds, certainly the first 3.  

Scoring in the league is 10 points per TD (all TDs) with a 5 point bonus if longer than 50 yards.  

And there’s a 10 pt bonus if +300 yds passing and +100 yds rush/rec 

While there is some strategic thought during the draft, it’s an in-person draft and most owners aren’t as focused on other teams during .  There is a lot of “best player on the board” picks using ESPN default ranks.

Is that more beneficial to picking 8th or 12th?  Still not sure.