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Beware the consensus Week 1 narratives! (1 Viewer)

zftcg

Footballguy
I once read an article about investing that said you can truly tell when an asset bubble is about to pop when the last few remaining bears give up and start buying. In that same spirit, whenever there seems to be universal agreement on an NFL storyline, that's exactly the moment my spidey sense starts tingling. Here are a couple that caught my eye the past few days. To be clear, I'm not saying I necessarily disagree with those narratives. That's the point; no one seems to be disagreeing. I guess what I'm saying is, be careful out there ... and maybe look for opportunities to place some contrary bets.

  1. Buffalo is going 0-16. Don't get me wrong, they suck. But they're not going to lose every game 47-3. McCoy will probably put up some good numbers. Benjamin will catch a bunch of TDs, or someone else will step up. Allen may not be good, but he'll make progress. And there will be at least a few weeks this year where the "auto-start streaming D against them" folks will get burned. I'm even a little nervous about this week, to the point where I crossed off the Chargers as a survivor pick option.
  2. We know exactly how the Titans backfield will play out. As a Lewis owner, I hope the CW is right on this. But last week was kind of a weird game. They made a conscious effort to have Henry be the RB1 early, then Lewis took over, then Henry busted off a long TD that got called back. Point is, they know they can't ride Lewis all season, and they have those two RBs for a reason. Again, everyone just seems a little too certain that the rest of the year will be exactly like the second half of that Dolphins game
  3. Lions are a total dumpster fire. Actually heard Mike Lombardi say this week, "Don't overreact to Week 1 ... unless you're Detroit." Look, they may well be a dumpster fire. But that game looked more to me like one that just got away from them rather than a team quitting on its coach. If it happens in Week 11, we assign it much less weight. Of course, if it happens again in Week 2, then maybe it's time to panic.
I almost put Mahomes in there, but I feel like there has been at least a few people cautioning to expect ups and downs throughout the season. I'd be very shocked if he proves to be as consistent as Wentz was last year.

What else is everyone sure of that may not be so?

 

jtp1982

Footballguy
This is why you want to focus on the opportunity for results (targets, route trees, etc. ...) vs. actual results (a big stat line in week 1) when you’re looking at a small sample size like 1 week of games.

There’s no perfect indicator of the future, but that helps filter out the noise of one off performances.

Plus even if our initial impressions are right on a guy it’s impossible to account for how defensive game planning will improve after the first few games once opposing coaches have relevant tape on him.  

 

Chaka

Footballguy
This is why you want to focus on the opportunity for results (targets, route trees, etc. ...) vs. actual results (a big stat line in week 1) when you’re looking at a small sample size like 1 week of games.

There’s no perfect indicator of the future, but that helps filter out the noise of one off performances.

Plus even if our initial impressions are right on a guy it’s impossible to account for how defensive game planning will improve after the first few games once opposing coaches have relevant tape on him.  
Good point. Do you think Jalen Richard is a must add?

 

Elevencents

Footballguy
Good point. Do you think Jalen Richard is a must add?
This is what Jalen richard has been every year. I’ve had him the past two years, kid appears loaded with talent, but just doesn’t get the reps. This year could be his best, and he could approach Woodhead like numbers, but I wouldn’t be crawling over people to add him. 

 

Elevencents

Footballguy
This is why you want to focus on the opportunity for results (targets, route trees, etc. ...) vs. actual results (a big stat line in week 1) when you’re looking at a small sample size like 1 week of games.

There’s no perfect indicator of the future, but that helps filter out the noise of one off performances.

Plus even if our initial impressions are right on a guy it’s impossible to account for how defensive game planning will improve after the first few games once opposing coaches have relevant tape on him.  
100%. A lot of people are hung up on the final stat line of yards, catches, etc when I think opportunity (rushes, targets) paints a much clearer picture of what you can expect. Give me the guy who has 10 targets and 3 receptions over the guy who catches all 3 balls for 100 yards and a touch. 

 

zftcg

Footballguy
Elevencents said:
100%. A lot of people are hung up on the final stat line of yards, catches, etc when I think opportunity (rushes, targets) paints a much clearer picture of what you can expect. Give me the guy who has 10 targets and 3 receptions over the guy who catches all 3 balls for 100 yards and a touch. 
These are all good points, but the point of the thread wasn't just to identify Week 1 overreactions (that thread already exists). It was to call attention to a subset of them where everyone seems to be in complete agreement.

I'll give you one more example: Conner is a locked-in RB1 for as long as Bell holds out. I totally buy that one -- great offensive line and other weapons, he's the only option, and he seems fully recovered from his cancer treatment. Plus we have a recent example of Pittsburgh producing an RB1 with Bell out. Still, there's no one out there making the counter argument (though I guess the main counter is that Bell could come back at any time). Maybe he's a decent RB2 but not the Bell replacement we're all imagining him to be.

 

Hilts

Footballguy
And now we see all the corrections. Guys who blew up last week are not this week.
Enunwa still looks great. Getting lots of targets and performing well. Lindsay hasn't played yet. Ekeler has 82 yards at the half. Those were three of the hottest pickups last week. 

 

zftcg

Footballguy
Ok so obviously "Mahomes is a stud" is going to be a consensus storyline after this week, and while he won't keep this pace up, I don't think we need to be too wary of that narrative. Ten TDs in two weeks tends to produce consensus.

 

zftcg

Footballguy
We know exactly how the Titans backfield will play out. As a Lewis owner, I hope the CW is right on this. But last week was kind of a weird game. They made a conscious effort to have Henry be the RB1 early, then Lewis took over, then Henry busted off a long TD that got called back. Point is, they know they can't ride Lewis all season, and they have those two RBs for a reason. Again, everyone just seems a little too certain that the rest of the year will be exactly like the second half of that Dolphins game
This was the one that inspired me to start the thread, and I'd say my caution was borne out by Week 2's result. People just seemed way too confident that Lewis was going to be the clear RB1. I still think he is more talented, and that I made the right decision drafting him instead of Henry (my mantra this year is "When in doubt, bet on talent"). But it's going to be an up-and-down season for owners of both players. The only hope is that there will be a pattern that allows us to know ahead of time whether it's likely to be a "Lewis game" or a "Henry game". But I don't even think we'll have that.

 

zftcg

Footballguy
I once read an article about investing that said you can truly tell when an asset bubble is about to pop when the last few remaining bears give up and start buying. In that same spirit, whenever there seems to be universal agreement on an NFL storyline, that's exactly the moment my spidey sense starts tingling. Here are a couple that caught my eye the past few days. To be clear, I'm not saying I necessarily disagree with those narratives. That's the point; no one seems to be disagreeing. I guess what I'm saying is, be careful out there ... and maybe look for opportunities to place some contrary bets.

  1. Buffalo is going 0-16. Don't get me wrong, they suck. But they're not going to lose every game 47-3. McCoy will probably put up some good numbers. Benjamin will catch a bunch of TDs, or someone else will step up. Allen may not be good, but he'll make progress. And there will be at least a few weeks this year where the "auto-start streaming D against them" folks will get burned. I'm even a little nervous about this week, to the point where I crossed off the Chargers as a survivor pick option.
  2. We know exactly how the Titans backfield will play out. As a Lewis owner, I hope the CW is right on this. But last week was kind of a weird game. They made a conscious effort to have Henry be the RB1 early, then Lewis took over, then Henry busted off a long TD that got called back. Point is, they know they can't ride Lewis all season, and they have those two RBs for a reason. Again, everyone just seems a little too certain that the rest of the year will be exactly like the second half of that Dolphins game
  3. Lions are a total dumpster fire. Actually heard Mike Lombardi say this week, "Don't overreact to Week 1 ... unless you're Detroit." Look, they may well be a dumpster fire. But that game looked more to me like one that just got away from them rather than a team quitting on its coach. If it happens in Week 11, we assign it much less weight. Of course, if it happens again in Week 2, then maybe it's time to panic.
I almost put Mahomes in there, but I feel like there has been at least a few people cautioning to expect ups and downs throughout the season. I'd be very shocked if he proves to be as consistent as Wentz was last year.

What else is everyone sure of that may not be so?
This post has aged pretty well.  :hifive:

 

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