Biggest tactical change in NFL this year? (1 Viewer)

[Lord Lucan]

I may be wrong, but it looks to me like this may have been a record year for 4th down attempts. I had a quick look back through the last few years and here's what it looks like:

2000 455

2001 468

2002 497 (expansion to 32 teams)

2003 501

2004 454

2005 465

2006 473

2007 533

I suspect this was a record season for attempts. I don't have a breakdown of what yardage markers the attempts took place but I did get the impression that many coaches finally clicked this year that punting the ball on, say, 4th and short from the opponents 40-yard line was not a good percentage play and in many cases tantamount to giving up a turnover. I think it might be a case of some of the coaches perceived to be amongst the leagues' best frequently going for it on 4th down (including Belichick when the game was over, before someone else says that!) and others imitating. The coaches who have been regarded as going for it a lot on 4th down in recent years have included SB winners such as Belichick, Parcells, Cowher, andShanahan, and I think this has filtered down to the other coaches.

Jacksonville led the way with 33 4th down conversion attempts, 19 of which were successful. Arizona were the most successful percentage wise (12/14, 86%) and Tennessee were the lowest (2/11, 18%) but the percentage figure is meaningless as it all depends on the situation (teams trailing inside the final minutes have to go for it on 4th and forever, etc).

 

[Spartans Rule]

That doesn't look like a statistically significant difference to me. Could've been a shift in philosophies, a random spike, or a little of both.

It would be interesting to see if certain situations can be isolated where teams attempted conversions at a higher rate. Could probably do this with the Data Dominator.

 

[Liquid Tension]

That doesn't look like a statistically significant difference to me. Could've been a shift in philosophies, a random spike, or a little of both.It would be interesting to see if certain situations can be isolated where teams attempted conversions at a higher rate. Could probably do this with the Data Dominator.

I like when people throw out a stat or possible trend for analysis/discussion.I know there have been threads where statistical studies showed that coaches should be going for 4th down a lot more than they have been. Your example of around the 40 is clearest cut "must go" area. However, one area that I feel teams go for too much is from around the 20-25 area where the kick is a very high % (37-42 yard FG) and the chances of getting the additional 4 points (if you make it) is not that strong and you could also turn the ball over, lose yards and push yourself out of FG range.You are correct that the data needs to be sorted by the game scenario. I would bet that teams going for 4th down from their own 30 yard line very late in the 4th quarter down by 14 will make a 4th and 5 at fairly high rate as the defense will allow the short underneath stuff.Good post and some analysis needs to be done to see if the 12% increase in going for 4th down means coaches are getting smarter or does it mean that it was a statistical anomaly?

 

[Marc Levin]

Good posting here.

I think it goes hand in hand with the re-emergence of the spread offense.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think it's because of the spread as well. Teams seem to be scoring more and it puts pressure on offenses to score. If you're on your opponents 40 or 45 yard line and it's 4th and 3, no longer is it a no brainer to punt. Teams are going for it and a lot of times getting those first downs. Other coaches are seeing the success and then they're doing it.

Until defenses start stopping those and blowing up in coaches faces, I see it being a regular thing being over 500 for the season.

 

[Bri]

I think it's because the exceptional coaches named do it AND because punters have "lost the art" of placing a punt inside the 10.

 

[JaxBill]

Del Rio and the Jags led the league in 4th down attempts.

http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stor...225920193.shtml

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

Jacksonville is definitely one of the trend setters in this. The Patriots probably rank pretty high on this too.

ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook is always harping on how teams punt too much. Here is a link to one of his longer articles on the subject:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...mp;sportCat=nfl

Here is another easterbrook article on the subject:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...terbrook/060926

And here is a economic professor's paper from Berkeley University on the subject:

http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/...B_CORRECTED.pdf

excerpt:

The Conclusion: unless you are the Baltimore Ravens or Baltimore-Ravens-like, use the Tuesday Morning Quarterback Sure-Fire, Never-Fails, All-Weather, Computer-Tested, Victory-Enhancing, Call-Me-in-My-Limo Guidelines. Here they are, and sorry there was no way to simplify:

• Inside your own 20, punt.

• From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.

• From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.

• From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.

• From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.

• From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.

• Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead.

 

[kevinray]

That doesn't look like a statistically significant difference to me. Could've been a shift in philosophies, a random spike, or a little of both.

It would be interesting to see if certain situations can be isolated where teams attempted conversions at a higher rate. Could probably do this with the Data Dominator.

I like when people throw out a stat or possible trend for analysis/discussion.I know there have been threads where statistical studies showed that coaches should be going for 4th down a lot more than they have been. Your example of around the 40 is clearest cut "must go" area. However, one area that I feel teams go for too much is from around the 20-25 area where the kick is a very high % (37-42 yard FG) and the chances of getting the additional 4 points (if you make it) is not that strong and you could also turn the ball over, lose yards and push yourself out of FG range.

You are correct that the data needs to be sorted by the game scenario. I would bet that teams going for 4th down from their own 30 yard line very late in the 4th quarter down by 14 will make a 4th and 5 at fairly high rate as the defense will allow the short underneath stuff.

Good post and some analysis needs to be done to see if the 12% increase in going for 4th down means coaches are getting smarter or does it mean that it was a statistical anomaly?

Was this always the case? My memory might just be bad and I didn't watch as much football 10 years ago but I feel like back then teams would take a 5 yard delay of game and punt instead of try on 4th down. Distance obviously plays a role but I feel like even under 4 and 5 teams would try and pin the other guy inside the 20 instead of try for the conversion.

 

[Lord Lucan]

Another possible factor is the number of games affected either by weather/field conditions in the second half of the season. At Pittsburgh, for instance, the worst venue for FG kickers around, there were a number of 4th down attempts where normally a FG would have been expected, such as Miami going for it on 4th and 15 from the 31 and 4th and 11 from the 25 in a scoreless game in the Mud Bowl, whilst Jacksonville twice went from it from within normal FG range on their visit to Heinz Field.

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

One of the things talked about in the economics paper I posted was going for it early in a game on 4th down from the oponents 2 yard line. Statistically a field goal is almost a sure thing while getting 7 points occurs about 3/7 times. Thus the two choices are statistically even. But if you miss a touchdown from the two then you are giving the opposition worse field position than if you had kicked off. So, over the long run, you would be better off going for it early in games on the opponents two yard line.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Jacksonville is definitely one of the trend setters in this. The Patriots probably rank pretty high on this too.

ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook is always harping on how teams punt too much. Here is a link to one of his longer articles on the subject:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...mp;sportCat=nfl

Here is another easterbrook article on the subject:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...terbrook/060926

And here is a economic professor's paper from Berkeley University on the subject:

http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/...B_CORRECTED.pdf

excerpt:

The Conclusion: unless you are the Baltimore Ravens or Baltimore-Ravens-like, use the Tuesday Morning Quarterback Sure-Fire, Never-Fails, All-Weather, Computer-Tested, Victory-Enhancing, Call-Me-in-My-Limo Guidelines. Here they are, and sorry there was no way to simplify:

• Inside your own 20, punt.

• From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.

• From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.

• From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.

• From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.

• From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.

• Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead.

While I don't agree with the extreme nature of the conclusion, I thought your post was excellent to bring forth some good articles that are extremely relevant!

 

[Liquid Tension]

That doesn't look like a statistically significant difference to me. Could've been a shift in philosophies, a random spike, or a little of both.

It would be interesting to see if certain situations can be isolated where teams attempted conversions at a higher rate. Could probably do this with the Data Dominator.

I like when people throw out a stat or possible trend for analysis/discussion.I know there have been threads where statistical studies showed that coaches should be going for 4th down a lot more than they have been. Your example of around the 40 is clearest cut "must go" area. However, one area that I feel teams go for too much is from around the 20-25 area where the kick is a very high % (37-42 yard FG) and the chances of getting the additional 4 points (if you make it) is not that strong and you could also turn the ball over, lose yards and push yourself out of FG range.

You are correct that the data needs to be sorted by the game scenario. I would bet that teams going for 4th down from their own 30 yard line very late in the 4th quarter down by 14 will make a 4th and 5 at fairly high rate as the defense will allow the short underneath stuff.

Good post and some analysis needs to be done to see if the 12% increase in going for 4th down means coaches are getting smarter or does it mean that it was a statistical anomaly?

Was this always the case? My memory might just be bad and I didn't watch as much football 10 years ago but I feel like back then teams would take a 5 yard delay of game and punt instead of try on 4th down. Distance obviously plays a role but I feel like even under 4 and 5 teams would try and pin the other guy inside the 20 instead of try for the conversion.

I can't really speak intelligently about whether it was always the case or not, but I do know that since the rule changes that really help the offense, it makes a lot more sense to go for 4th down than it used to.The part that I never understood was taking a 5 yard delay of game penalty? First, the possibility that your punter gets runs into or an offside penalty could give you a 1st down. Second, basic geometry tells you that the closer you are the easier it is to hit an area out of bounds with your punt (aiming for the sideline). Moving back makes it harder and it shocks me that punters don't see it that way. Maybe it is because their averages get worse? I also don't see punters go for the sidelines as much which I thin is a mistake. Just get it inside the 10, don't worry about getting inside the 5.

 

[Liquid Tension]

One of the things talked about in the economics paper I posted was going for it early in a game on 4th down from the oponents 2 yard line. Statistically a field goal is almost a sure thing while getting 7 points occurs about 3/7 times. Thus the two choices are statistically even. But if you miss a touchdown from the two then you are giving the opposition worse field position than if you had kicked off. So, over the long run, you would be better off going for it early in games on the opponents two yard line.

This is one area I would almost always go for it as long as there is time to take advantage of the probably good field position.

 

[Workhorse]

A lot of it is situational. Let's say you're up by 4 points with 2 minutes to go and you're at the opponents 45 yard line facing a 4th and 2. They are out of timeouts. Do you go for it and try to take one shot to win the game then and there OR do you punt and make the other team go 80+ yards with no timeouts left?

As for the delay of game penalty in order to "help" the punter, I've always thought of it as being similar to golf: Many golfers would prefer to hit a full wedge shot to a half-wedge shot. For lots of guys, they'd rather be 80-100 yards from the green than 50-70 yards. Punters would rather have a yardage range of 35-45 since that's their typical punt range than 30-40 which requires taking something off the kick.

 

[Liquid Tension]

A lot of it is situational. Let's say you're up by 4 points with 2 minutes to go and you're at the opponents 45 yard line facing a 4th and 2. They are out of timeouts. Do you go for it and try to take one shot to win the game then and there OR do you punt and make the other team go 80+ yards with no timeouts left?As for the delay of game penalty in order to "help" the punter, I've always thought of it as being similar to golf: Many golfers would prefer to hit a full wedge shot to a half-wedge shot. For lots of guys, they'd rather be 80-100 yards from the green than 50-70 yards. Punters would rather have a yardage range of 35-45 since that's their typical punt range than 30-40 which requires taking something off the kick.

two good responses1) Interesting dilemma. This would be dictated by the way the offenses have been playing. If the offenses have been going great I would go for it, if it has been a defensive struggle I would punt. if it were "average" I am not sure as the first yards are pretty easy when a TD is needed, the hardest are as you get close. I might go for the win and go for it on 4th. 2) I think your take on the feel from the punters standpoint is correct, but the difference is that a punters distance doesn't matter he is trying to shoot it through an area (if aiming out of bounds), a golfer wants to take the same stroke the distance is known, the accuracy is all he needs to focus on. the punter only needs to focus on the accuracy, whether he is better doing that with a full punt or a half punt is up to him. Your miss area is larger if you are closer to the out of bounds. I think the issue here is that teams are trying to get the ball inside the 3 rather than knock it out at the 5-10 yard line and too many balls go through the end zone for my liking

 

[kentric]

The Conclusion: unless you are the Baltimore Ravens or Baltimore-Ravens-like, use the Tuesday Morning Quarterback Sure-Fire, Never-Fails, All-Weather, Computer-Tested, Victory-Enhancing, Call-Me-in-My-Limo Guidelines. Here they are, and sorry there was no way to simplify: • Inside your own 20, punt.• From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.• From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.• From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.• From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.• From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.• Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead.

If you follow this rule and go for first downs on fourth-and-2 from your own thirty yard line, you're not going to last long as a NFL head coach.

 

[Workhorse]

A lot of it is situational. Let's say you're up by 4 points with 2 minutes to go and you're at the opponents 45 yard line facing a 4th and 2. They are out of timeouts. Do you go for it and try to take one shot to win the game then and there OR do you punt and make the other team go 80+ yards with no timeouts left?As for the delay of game penalty in order to "help" the punter, I've always thought of it as being similar to golf: Many golfers would prefer to hit a full wedge shot to a half-wedge shot. For lots of guys, they'd rather be 80-100 yards from the green than 50-70 yards. Punters would rather have a yardage range of 35-45 since that's their typical punt range than 30-40 which requires taking something off the kick.

two good responses1) Interesting dilemma. This would be dictated by the way the offenses have been playing. If the offenses have been going great I would go for it, if it has been a defensive struggle I would punt. if it were "average" I am not sure as the first yards are pretty easy when a TD is needed, the hardest are as you get close. I might go for the win and go for it on 4th. 2) I think your take on the feel from the punters standpoint is correct, but the difference is that a punters distance doesn't matter he is trying to shoot it through an area (if aiming out of bounds), a golfer wants to take the same stroke the distance is known, the accuracy is all he needs to focus on. the punter only needs to focus on the accuracy, whether he is better doing that with a full punt or a half punt is up to him. Your miss area is larger if you are closer to the out of bounds. I think the issue here is that teams are trying to get the ball inside the 3 rather than knock it out at the 5-10 yard line and too many balls go through the end zone for my liking

Good stuff.Thinking more about the punting thing, I get the feeling that fewer punters try coffin corner these days since coverage teams have gotten very adept at killing the ball inside the 10 on punts, and the prevailing theory on punt returns is to not field a punt inside the 10 and hope that it goes for a touchback. My guess (and it's strictly a guess) is that coaches feel there's a better chance of pinning a team inside the 10 with a high, full effort punt than a short, coffin corner one that has a chance of being shanked.

 

[switz]

That doesn't look like a statistically significant difference to me. Could've been a shift in philosophies, a random spike, or a little of both.It would be interesting to see if certain situations can be isolated where teams attempted conversions at a higher rate. Could probably do this with the Data Dominator.

60 more attempts in 512 games - who knows how many countless plays happen in those games. It's a miniscule percentage of an increase.

 

[Liquid Tension]

That doesn't look like a statistically significant difference to me. Could've been a shift in philosophies, a random spike, or a little of both.It would be interesting to see if certain situations can be isolated where teams attempted conversions at a higher rate. Could probably do this with the Data Dominator.

60 more attempts in 512 games - who knows how many countless plays happen in those games. It's a miniscule percentage of an increase.

I don't think a 13% increase in 4th down attempts is minuscule

 

[Liquid Tension]

A lot of it is situational. Let's say you're up by 4 points with 2 minutes to go and you're at the opponents 45 yard line facing a 4th and 2. They are out of timeouts. Do you go for it and try to take one shot to win the game then and there OR do you punt and make the other team go 80+ yards with no timeouts left?As for the delay of game penalty in order to "help" the punter, I've always thought of it as being similar to golf: Many golfers would prefer to hit a full wedge shot to a half-wedge shot. For lots of guys, they'd rather be 80-100 yards from the green than 50-70 yards. Punters would rather have a yardage range of 35-45 since that's their typical punt range than 30-40 which requires taking something off the kick.

two good responses1) Interesting dilemma. This would be dictated by the way the offenses have been playing. If the offenses have been going great I would go for it, if it has been a defensive struggle I would punt. if it were "average" I am not sure as the first yards are pretty easy when a TD is needed, the hardest are as you get close. I might go for the win and go for it on 4th. 2) I think your take on the feel from the punters standpoint is correct, but the difference is that a punters distance doesn't matter he is trying to shoot it through an area (if aiming out of bounds), a golfer wants to take the same stroke the distance is known, the accuracy is all he needs to focus on. the punter only needs to focus on the accuracy, whether he is better doing that with a full punt or a half punt is up to him. Your miss area is larger if you are closer to the out of bounds. I think the issue here is that teams are trying to get the ball inside the 3 rather than knock it out at the 5-10 yard line and too many balls go through the end zone for my liking

Good stuff.Thinking more about the punting thing, I get the feeling that fewer punters try coffin corner these days since coverage teams have gotten very adept at killing the ball inside the 10 on punts, and the prevailing theory on punt returns is to not field a punt inside the 10 and hope that it goes for a touchback. My guess (and it's strictly a guess) is that coaches feel there's a better chance of pinning a team inside the 10 with a high, full effort punt than a short, coffin corner one that has a chance of being shanked.

Your guess may be right, it also could just be the punter stating what you said (and protecting their yards per punt average). The punt coverage teams are much better than they were but they still screw things up and we still see an inordinant amount of punts go into the endzone on a fly.Again, when you eliminate the chance of running into the punter and offsides by taking a delay (I even saw a punter drop the snap after taking a delay of game penalty and then ran for 3 yards before being tackled 4 yards short of the 1st down - they would have had the 1st) getting you a 1st down, on top of making it a tougher angle kicking it out of bounds, I don't get it

 

[vandyt]

The Conclusion: unless you are the Baltimore Ravens or Baltimore-Ravens-like, use the Tuesday Morning Quarterback Sure-Fire, Never-Fails, All-Weather, Computer-Tested, Victory-Enhancing, Call-Me-in-My-Limo Guidelines. Here they are, and sorry there was no way to simplify: • Inside your own 20, punt.• From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.• From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.• From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.• From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.• From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.• Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead.

If you follow this rule and go for first downs on fourth-and-2 from your own thirty yard line, you're not going to last long as a NFL head coach.

Are you suggesting the data is wrong, or that the media/average fan doesn't understand that on average, you'll come out ahead by using this approach?

 

[larry_boy_44]

The Conclusion: unless you are the Baltimore Ravens or Baltimore-Ravens-like, use the Tuesday Morning Quarterback Sure-Fire, Never-Fails, All-Weather, Computer-Tested, Victory-Enhancing, Call-Me-in-My-Limo Guidelines. Here they are, and sorry there was no way to simplify: • Inside your own 20, punt.• From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.• From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.• From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.• From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.• From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.• Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead.

If you follow this rule and go for first downs on fourth-and-2 from your own thirty yard line, you're not going to last long as a NFL head coach.

I don't thikn anyone has the guts to find out...but I think it would work...I also think that if your offense knew "3rd and 4" was 2 down territory it would change the way the game was played masively... Same with "2nd and 6"... You have 3 downs to get 6 yards? Easy...It also changes the way the defense plays things on 2nd and 3rd down, too...