Bizarre Vegas lines this week? (1 Viewer)

[AB in DC]

Is it just me, or do these lines look completely out of whack?

Denver -3 at home vs. Jacksonville

- Jacksonville has looked awful, while Denver has put up tons of yards. The only reasons Denver games have been close have been (a) Elam has missed three FGs so far and (b) Denver has allowed two D/ST TDs and a safety -- neither of which can be expected to happen with any regularity.

Washington -3.5 at home vs. NY Giants

- Giants have been awful, and Washington is 2-0 against teams that are as good if not better

Green Bay +5 at home vs. San Diego

- Do people think that Green Bay isn't for real? Their defense shut down two above-average offenses, and I'm just not sold on the Chargers' pass D. Unless the Chargers pass rush can dominate the good GB offensive line, I see Green Bay winning the game; at the very least, Favre should be able to keep it close.

I've never bet real money on anything, but these seem like absolute no-brainers this week. I've been making picks for fun for a while (including a 58% success on a message board challenge last year), and I can't remember ever seeing such obvious plays.

 

[GridironMenace]

I don' t feel like writing a real long response on this issue, but I will say that none of those games are locks. The only way GB wins is in a close game (3 points of less), however SD can absolutely blow out GB if LT2 gets back on track. Denver is 2-0 but could also easily be 0-2. A game against Jacksonville is hardly considered a lock and will be a close game. I think the Washington/NYG game would be the best to bet on, but neither team impresses me much. I would actually stay away from all 3 games.

 

[enfuego]

Is it just me, or do these lines look completely out of whack?

Denver -3 at home vs. Jacksonville

- Jacksonville has looked awful, while Denver has put up tons of yards. The only reasons Denver games have been close have been (a) Elam has missed three FGs so far and (b) Denver has allowed two D/ST TDs and a safety -- neither of which can be expected to happen with any regularity.

Washington -3.5 at home vs. NY Giants

- Giants have been awful, and Washington is 2-0 against teams that are as good if not better

Green Bay +5 at home vs. San Diego

- Do people think that Green Bay isn't for real? Their defense shut down two above-average offenses, and I'm just not sold on the Chargers' pass D. Unless the Chargers pass rush can dominate the good GB offensive line, I see Green Bay winning the game; at the very least, Favre should be able to keep it close.

I've never bet real money on anything, but these seem like absolute no-brainers this week. I've been making picks for fun for a while (including a 58% success on a message board challenge last year), and I can't remember ever seeing such obvious plays.

There's the beauty of the line...Game #1 is a loser. I see Jax covering that if not straight up winning it. Denver has been terrible in their first 2. Game #2 is a bit closer with the home team getting their standard 3pts + .5 and game #3 I would not touch because SD is due to bounce back despite how well Green Bay has started...With a healthy LT running the ball I would never have dreamed the Packers would be +5 in this game before the season started.

 

[gump]

I thought the Denver line stood out.

Also think the Jets -3 stands out at home over Miami.

But what do I know?

 

[GridironMenace]

If anything I would take SD and the points. I see that line getting closer to +3.5 by kickoff.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Take SD and the points. Its still warm enough for weather to be a non-factor and its an AFC team against an NFC team (nuf said). Even with Norm at the helm, SD can win this one.

 

[Big Sug]

I like the Chargers in that game.

I agree on Denver.

 

[reg]

If anything I would take SD and the points. I see that line getting closer to +3.5 by kickoff.

Take SD and the points. Its still warm enough for weather to be a non-factor and its an AFC team against an NFC team (nuf said). Even with Norm at the helm, SD can win this one.

SD is favored by 5, you don't get points when they are favored...

 

[jagerbomb]

If anything I would take SD and the points. I see that line getting closer to +3.5 by kickoff.

doesn't "green bay +5" mean that green bay gets the points?

 

[garyd]

Take SD and the points????

SD is the favorite in that game (GB +5 from the OP)...you are giving points if you take SD

 

[jagerbomb]

My advice for this week... Take New England and the points.

 

[mad sweeney]

Is it just me, or do these lines look completely out of whack?

Denver -3 at home vs. Jacksonville

- Jacksonville has looked awful, while Denver has put up tons of yards. The only reasons Denver games have been close have been (a) Elam has missed three FGs so far and (b) Denver has allowed two D/ST TDs and a safety -- neither of which can be expected to happen with any regularity.

Washington -3.5 at home vs. NY Giants

- Giants have been awful, and Washington is 2-0 against teams that are as good if not better

Green Bay +5 at home vs. San Diego

- Do people think that Green Bay isn't for real? Their defense shut down two above-average offenses, and I'm just not sold on the Chargers' pass D. Unless the Chargers pass rush can dominate the good GB offensive line, I see Green Bay winning the game; at the very least, Favre should be able to keep it close.

I've never bet real money on anything, but these seem like absolute no-brainers this week. I've been making picks for fun for a while (including a 58% success on a message board challenge last year), and I can't remember ever seeing such obvious plays.

At this point the Eagles are anything but an above average offense. And GB loses to this average offense if not for two ST blunders. I wouldn't put money on Gb unless the spread was at least 6.5. The Giants put up points on Dallas but I am not sold on them as an O, especially with Eli and Jacobs dinged as well as their defensive injuries. I see the Chargers rebounding big.Not sure about the Denver one, they're the least impressive 2-0 team to me, but I haven't seen any Jags games so probably not one I'd take.

The way NYG is playing, Eli still dinged and one blind side away from the sideline, and really an implosion waiting to happen this seems like a good one for me. Campbell and Moss are just a little bit away from having their timing down for the long plays and Portis is looking fine. I think I would take this bet even if it were in NY.

 

[kutta]

If you've never bet seriously on sports and you see a line that looks too good to be true, bet the other way.

 

[nyftbl_giants]

games like this are why im in hiding

 

[boom king]

I thought the Denver line stood out. Also think the Jets -3 stands out at home over Miami.But what do I know?

 

[moderated]

If you've never bet seriously on sports and you see a line that looks too good to be true, bet the other way.

 

[a_troll00]

Personally, I'm not a believer in sports betting at all, especially football. You can analyze a game all you want, and expect a certain result. At the end of the day, however, there are 22 human beings on the field at any given time... and @#$% happens.

 

[PahtyTom]

Jacksonville outright.

 

[AB in DC]

Another reason I like those matchups: they're playing against teams coached by Del Rio, Coughlin, and Norv Turner. Probably the three worst coaches in the NFL.

 

[packersfan]

Green Bay +5 at home vs. San Diego

If Jennings and Jones are both out you might want to consider throwing a lot of money on the Chargers. That game could get real ugly for the Packers without two of their top 3 WRs and no running game.

 

[AB in DC]

If you've never bet seriously on sports and you see a line that looks too good to be true, bet the other way.

This is the reason I don't normally bet. But I have found that my predictions vs. the spread have a much higher success rate in the first month of the season compared to the rest of the season. Since I follow the NFL offseason very closely, like a lot of hardcore ff'ers in the Shark Pool, I figure that I really might know better than the herd for the first few weeks.

 

[AB in DC]

At this point the Eagles are anything but an above average offense. And GB loses to this average offense if not for two ST blunders. I wouldn't put money on Gb unless the spread was at least 6.5. The Giants put up points on Dallas but I am not sold on them as an O, especially with Eli and Jacobs dinged as well as their defensive injuries. I see the Chargers rebounding big.

Thanks for your thoughts. I'm not looking at Green Bay's W/L per se, just that they held Philadelphia to 13 points and not a whole lot of yards. Lots of people talk about a San Diego rebound, but even though Chicago and New England have great defenses, I'm not sure Green Bay's is that far behind -- especially in the passing game.I'd be interested in hearing why you picked 6.5 as the number you'd need before putting money on GB.

 

[AB in DC]

I thought the Denver line stood out. Also think the Jets -3 stands out at home over Miami.But what do I know?

I like Jets -3 too, but with the Pennington injury and Clemens' inexperience, I'd definitely sit this one out.

 

[Sleeper 43]

Is it just me, or do these lines look completely out of whack?

Denver -3 at home vs. Jacksonville

- Jacksonville has looked awful, while Denver has put up tons of yards. The only reasons Denver games have been close have been (a) Elam has missed three FGs so far and (b) Denver has allowed two D/ST TDs and a safety -- neither of which can be expected to happen with any regularity.

Washington -3.5 at home vs. NY Giants

- Giants have been awful, and Washington is 2-0 against teams that are as good if not better

Green Bay +5 at home vs. San Diego

- Do people think that Green Bay isn't for real? Their defense shut down two above-average offenses, and I'm just not sold on the Chargers' pass D. Unless the Chargers pass rush can dominate the good GB offensive line, I see Green Bay winning the game; at the very least, Favre should be able to keep it close.

I've never bet real money on anything, but these seem like absolute no-brainers this week. I've been making picks for fun for a while (including a 58% success on a message board challenge last year), and I can't remember ever seeing such obvious plays.

Denver at a glance looks like a steal but envision this: Denver is secretly been horrible against the run. For the Jags , rushing is their bread n butter.........Could be the rebound week for Fred/MJD

 

[Guinis72]

I like SD & DEN. My favorite game of the week is Cinci +3.5 at Seattle though.

GB hasn't seen a DEF like SD yet, and they're going to be fired up after getting spanked on nat'l tv by NE. Denver is tough at home and didn't play well at BUF or at home vs OAK but I think OAK is better than people thought this year plus that's a huge rivalry game (like Cinci vs. Clev).

As a Skins fan, that 1/2 pt scares me a bit. NFC East games are usually pretty close and I'm still not sure if we beat Philly or if they beat themselves. Our RBBC should put up nice rushing numbers though and open things up for 1-2 long ones to Moss or ARE. If I had to take action on that game, I'd take the Skins.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

- Do people think that Green Bay isn't for real?

I'm a lifelong Packer fan and season ticket holder and I'm far from certain that Green Bay is "for real." Packers were terrible against the AFC last season and I'm not putting too much stock in a win over the Eagles based on two huge special teams plays and last week's game against a terrible NY Giants team.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

My advice for this week... Take New England and the points.

ITS A LOCK

 

[[icon]]

If you guys ever ventured out o the Shark Pool you'd realize there is a great NFL wagering thread over the FFA that is frequented by a lot of people who know much more about sports betting than most anyone who's responded in this thread thus far

 

[Garrett]

My advice for this week... Take New England and the points.

 

[Pipes]

Green Bay +5 at home vs. San Diego

If Jennings and Jones are both out you might want to consider throwing a lot of money on the Chargers. That game could get real ugly for the Packers without two of their top 3 WRs and no running game.

What's wrong with Jones...He's not listed on the injury report?

 

[Pipes]

Green Bay +5 at home vs. San Diego

If Jennings and Jones are both out you might want to consider throwing a lot of money on the Chargers. That game could get real ugly for the Packers without two of their top 3 WRs and no running game.

What's wrong with Jones...He's not listed on the injury report?

Nevermind...I just saw the other thread.

 

[mrgerty]

In his last 6 games, Eli Manning is 5-1 against the spread vs. NFC EAST foes while the Redskins are 1-5 against the spread vs. the NFC EAST in their last 6. While that wouldn't automatically make me bete on the G-Men, it would make me a little cautious given the fact that the Giants are 0-2 and the Skins are 2-0 right now and look solid. Step away from the gambling website...

 

[Islander]

My advice for this week... Take New England and the points.

Yes NE +17 at home is a lock

 

[AB in DC]

In his last 6 games, Eli Manning is 5-1 against the spread vs. NFC EAST foes while the Redskins are 1-5 against the spread vs. the NFC EAST in their last 6.

And why does this matter for this week's game?

 

[mrgerty]

I haven't seen an injury report for this week. Is he out? I don't have him or posess any desire to own him in any leagues, so I haven't paid much attention to him fantasy wise. Regardless, I am not going anywhere near that game this week - with or without Eli.

 

[freeannyong]

Denver is 1st in the league in total offense and 2nd in total defense. Saying they are the least impressive 2-0 team is absurd, especially when SF and DET are also 2-0. JAX is overated. DEN has to be the play of the week.

 

[reg]

hopefully you didn't drop too much coin on these.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Broncos/Jags was the classic "it looks too good, so avoid it" game. Stuff like that makes me wonder what Vegas knew, as Denver, despite losing, probably should have been favored by a few more points.

 

[Pipes]

Denver is 1st in the league in total offense and 2nd in total defense. Saying they are the least impressive 2-0 team is absurd, especially when SF and DET are also 2-0. JAX is overated. DEN has to be the play of the week.

Apparently total offense and total defense stats are a little bit misleading. Denver could easily be 0-3 despite playing a cake schedule so far.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

hopefully you didn't drop too much coin on these.

1 out of 3 ain't bad. Oh wait... yes it is.

 

[gump]

Broncos/Jags was the classic "it looks too good, so avoid it" game. Stuff like that makes me wonder what Vegas knew, as Denver, despite losing, probably should have been favored by a few more points.

We were at a Buc tailgate, and some girls were walking around with cards trying to get you to join an online gambling site.Their free "lock of the week" was Jacksonville.Obviously they want to give you a free win to get you interested.Something fishy going on here...

 

[texasheat]

Broncos/Jags was the classic "it looks too good, so avoid it" game. Stuff like that makes me wonder what Vegas knew, as Denver, despite losing, probably should have been favored by a few more points.

*disclaimer - I bet on Denver I'm guessing they saw the writing on the wall like everyone else should have... Denver was lucky to be 2-0 and barely beat two of the leagues worst teams.

 

[uwgb96]

Broncos/Jags was the classic "it looks too good, so avoid it" game. Stuff like that makes me wonder what Vegas knew, as Denver, despite losing, probably should have been favored by a few more points.

We were at a Buc tailgate, and some girls were walking around with cards trying to get you to join an online gambling site.Their free "lock of the week" was Jacksonville.Obviously they want to give you a free win to get you interested.Something fishy going on here...

Vegas didn't "know" anything. They don't set the lines based on how they think the game is going to end up, they set the lines based on what line they think will get 50% of the money on each side and they take the juice.