Blackjack Pole: What Do You Do? (1 Viewer)

[Dan Lambskin]

inspired by @Peyton Marino

Do you hit on 12 against a 2?  yes or no?

for purposes of the pole assume we are talking about a hard 12

Edit: also assume you are not rainman and counting into an 8 deck shoe 

 

[[icon]]

Stand IMO. 

 

[dino259]

Hit IT!  Probably against a 3 as well.

 

[Bronco Billy]

hit

 

[Peyton Marino]

I would also say assuming you're not counting cards.  there are instances when you would change your strategy based on the count.

 

[RUSF18]

Hit because math. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

Hit IT!  Probably against a 3 as well.

Would not hit against a 3

 

[Limp Ditka]

Unless you're playing single deck, and fully aware that the remaining deck is heavy, you hit

 

[Peyton Marino]

the math-based answer is to hit

 

[Sabertooth]

Hit it like it stole your jeep.  

 

[Ned]

Ask what the player to the right wants you to do.

Do opposite.

 

[IC FBGCav]

What ever you do on the 12 always do the same whether it is hit or stay.

 

[Limp Ditka]

What ever you do on the 12 always do the same whether it is hit or stay.

So if you're going to be wrong, be wrong 100% of the time?

 

[Bronco Billy]

I would also say assuming you're not counting cards.  there are instances when you would change your strategy based on the count.

agreed. I'm assuming a fresh deck

 

[Peyton Marino]

you would also hit against a 3.

if you care about losing as little (or winning as much) as possible, there are easy to find basic strategy charts out there that you can google and memorize.  

if you're just playing for fun, continue as you were.

edit: these are not mutually exclusive, of course.  but some people get unreasonably angry when I try to explain these things to them, so I have learned to accept that some people just want to chill and play some cards without thinking (which is fine)

 

[Bronco Billy]

What ever you do on the 12 always do the same whether it is hit or stay.

That's probably not the best advice

 

[Ned]

Do another BJ pole:

Your hard 16 vs. Dealer 10.  Folks argue over this one a lot.

 

[Peyton Marino]

another good one:

you have 9-9 against the dealer's 9 showing.  what's your move?

 

[jon_mx]

You really don't know unless you are counting cards.  At a neutral count, you hit it.  When the count goes slightly negative you stand.  If you don't want to piss off the table, you also stand.  Either play is not horrible. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Do another BJ pole:

Your hard 16 vs. Dealer 10.  Folks argue over this one a lot.

Really?  What's there to argue about?  I hit that 100 times out of 100

 

[Peyton Marino]

Really?  What's there to argue about?  I hit that 100 times out of 100

unless you can surrender.

find a game in vegas that allows for surrendering and do it.  people lose their minds.  it's great.

 

[Ned]

Really?  What's there to argue about?  I hit that 100 times out of 100

Me too, but I have lost count the number of times I've seen folks stay on it and then argue it to their death.  Enjoy playing to not lose, loser.

 

[dino259]

Really?  What's there to argue about?  I hit that 100 times out of 100

unless you can surrender.

find a game in vegas that allows for surrendering and do it.  people lose their minds.  it's great.

What does @lumpy19 think about surrendering (hedging)?

 

[Bronco Billy]

Really?  What's there to argue about?  I hit that 100 times out of 100

yep. only way I even think about standing is if I know its a very top heavy deck. then I may as well sit and hope for the best. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

another good one:

you have 9-9 against the dealer's 9 showing.  what's your move?

stand. not interested in doubling my loses

 

[Dan Lambskin]

another good one:

you have 9-9 against the dealer's 9 showing.  what's your move?

That's a good one.  I had to consult the chart .  Splitting makes sense 

I play pretty well but not perfect.   Just don't play enough to be able to memorize all the split and soft plays

 

[kevzilla]

Changing basic strategy plays based on the count increases your edge...and your heat. Tread lightly.

 

[Thorn]

stand. not interested in doubling my loses

No

 

[IC FBGCav]

So if you're going to be wrong, be wrong 100% of the time?

Well, it is close to 50 50, so I will take the consistency because everyone who has played blackjack as long as me knows, whenever you have a big bet on the line and use your gut, well you lose.

 

[Statorama]

Do another BJ pole:

Your hard 16 vs. Dealer 10.  Folks argue over this one a lot.

This is every blackjack hand I've ever had

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Pretty sure starting this thread is going to lead to lead to my annual online blackjack meltdown 

 

[belljr]

• If you stand, you’ll win 35% of the time and lose 65% of the time.
  
• If you hit, you’ll win 37% of the time and lose 63% of the time.
  

 

[chet]

• If you stand, you’ll win 35% of the time and lose 65% of the time.
  
• If you hit, you’ll win 37% of the time and lose 63% of the time.
  

Wrong.  There should be pushes in the hit option.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

I'll be in Vegas this weekend, my favorite shtick when playing super drunk on the cheap tables in the early morning is to double down for less when I have a 5 or 6 against a dealers 10.

 

[kevzilla]

Frequently, basic strategy is about losing less, not making more. 

 

[Buzzbait]

Do another BJ pole:

Your hard 16 vs. Dealer 10.  Folks argue over this one a lot.

You hit. Standing results in losing 53.5% of the time.

 

[belljr]

Always hit.

Unless it's late, I've taken a beating, the tables cold and I want to change it up

 

[chet]

You hit. Standing results in losing 53.5% of the time.

No way is the loss rate is that low.  Any 10, 9, 8, 7 + all of the multi card combos. Just the single card losses add up to 53.85% and that's not taking an ace into account.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Frequently, basic strategy is about losing less, not making more. 

yep

 

[Brony]

the math-based answer is to hit

just curious, how much is the math in favor of the hit?  For example, does your odds of winning go from 47% to 48%, or does it go from 47% to 54%? You still want to do the move with the better edge to player, but I don't know how big of a deal this is.

 

[bostonfred]

Imagine the balls on the first guy who was like, hey, you want to play blackjack for money? Here, you go first 

 

[Brony]

• If you stand, you’ll win 35% of the time and lose 65% of the time.
  
• If you hit, you’ll win 37% of the time and lose 63% of the time.
  

thank you.

 

[jon_mx]

the math-based answer is to hit

Only if you assume a neutral count in the deck.  It only takes a slight move in the count to make standing a better statistical option. 

 

[Buzzbait]

No way is the loss rate is that low.  Any 10, 9, 8, 7 + all of the multi card combos. Just the single card losses add up to 53.85% and that's not taking an ace into account.

You're correct. Even when I was typing I thought "that seems low". Looked it up and with 4 decks the odds of the dealer busting are only 37.4%.

 

[eoMMan]

Hit...and if someone at the table mouths off at your decision....tell them to shut the eff up.

 

[Bronco Billy]

No

I like that chart, but I'm not getting aggressive playing into a 9. I would split 10s though. 

 

[Peyton Marino]

just curious, how much is the math in favor of the hit?  For example, does your odds of winning go from 47% to 48%, or does it go from 47% to 54%? You still want to do the move with the better edge to player, but I don't know how big of a deal this is.

Short answer is no, it's not a large edge difference in a single hand. If you play blackjack casually over a lifetime, the incremental losses add up. Close decisions will usually correspond to small differences in edge. In general, that's what advantage gambling is - pressing small edges.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Do another BJ pole:

Your hard 16 vs. Dealer 10.  Folks argue over this one a lot.

Can someone show the math on this one? Book play is hit but why?

2-5 helps you, hurts the dealers.

6 busts you and hurts dealer

7-K you bust but will have lost anyway

Ace is the only card that you 'take away' from the dealer.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Only if you assume a neutral count in the deck.  It only takes a slight move in the count to make standing a better statistical option. 

well sure

I would also say assuming you're not counting cards.  there are instances when you would change your strategy based on the count.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I like that chart, but I'm not getting aggressive playing into a 9. I would split 10s though.