Fitzgerald is 2 inches taller. While he is taller, it's not like he's 6'5" and Blackmon is 5'11"One of the biggest positives I've seen on Blackmon's draft profiles is his work ethic, and the only "question mark" was 1 DUI. By all other accounts, Blackmon was a model student-athlete, according to his coaches.
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Blackmon unlikely to run (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JohnnyU
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Other than on deep routes (and even on them to some extent) straightline speed has very little to do with the ability to seperate.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think Blackmon is a mix between Fitzgerald and Boldin. What did Boldin run? A 4.75?
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Unconfirmed right now, but just saw a message board post saying Blackmon was 6'1" and 207. Anyone got the exact measurements or a reputable link?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
lighter than i was figuring.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That's a lot lighter than I thought he was.
ebcpastor2004
Footballguy
He missed Maclin(19), Harvin(22), Nicks(29), & Britt(30) from the 2009 1st round.I'd say all 4 of them are better than DHB & Crabtree, with Nicks being the elite option of the group. Wondering what he would say about these & where you think these 4 fall in the discussion with Blackmon?I found this article interesting.http://nflmocks.com/2012/02/20/is-justin-blackmon-overrated/
Is Justin Blackmon Overrated?Feb 20th at 10:45 am by Bo Is Justin Blackmon Overrated? Justin Blackmon is widely considered the best wide receiver in this class. He possesses great strength and catching ability. Statistically, Blackmon is off the charts and has been the best receiver in college football the last two years. However, these stats can be skewed; just because Blackmon is the best in college doesn’t mean he’s going to be the best choice in the NFL draft. See there is a such a different level of talent in college that it’s really hard to get a 100% accurate reading on how a player is going to translate into the NFL.I’ve compiled a list of first round receivers in the last 6 years and this is what I’ve come up with:2011-AJ Green (4th overall), Julio Jones (6th overall)2010-Demariyus Thomas (22nd overall), Dez Bryant (24th overall)2009-Darrius Heyward-Bey(7th overall), Michael Crabtree (10th overall)2008-None taken in first round2007-Calvin Johnson (2nd overall), Ted Ginn Jr.(9th overall)2006-Santonio Holmes (25th overall)Now, these players were considered some of the best coming out of college and if I were to break them down into to tiers of production it would look like this:Elite:Calvin Johnson Elite Potentialez BryantAJ GreenDemariyus Thomas Great Potential:Julio Jones Solid:Santonio Holmes “Man, he’d be good if he could figure it out”:Michael Crabtree What happened?Darrius Heyward-BeyTed Ginn JrLooking at that list isn’t discouraging but still, it all has to do with situation. Do you think Calvin Johnson would have been as dominant if the Raiders chose him instead of JaMarcus Russell? Who knows for sure. The thing is that you can never be sure what a receiver is going to do in the next level and it’s often dictated by what team chooses you.Back to Blackmon, Blackmon is comparable to some of the elite potential receivers on that board. Blackmon, however, is not those receivers; he lacks one key attribute, speed. The receiver Blackmon is most compared to WR Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys. I see a likeness between them when it comes to physical ability but in all the tape I watch Blackmon is not able to burst off the line and get separation from defensive backs.Blackmon has made a career out of punishing smaller, lower caliber cornerbacks in the Pac-12 and that may have inflated his stock some. There is no doubt that Blackmon is going to be an NFL receiver who is productive. My concern comes when teams draft him with the purpose of being a featured receiver. The majority of Blackmon’s game is played within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He can make plays in the open field because of his strength and field vision, but he isn’t a threat as a deep play receiver and might find most of his success in the possession receiver role.I’m not a draft expert but I will say this, if Blackmon doesn’t put on a convincing display during speed drills at the combine/pro-days than I would stay away from him with a top 5 or maybe 10 pick. There is a very good chance I’m wrong but there are too many sure bets in this draft and Blackmon truly is not one of them.
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Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
He's been listed at 215 (official OSU site, ESPN) , so it's not that far off. My take is that it's combine prep.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'd say 3 of the 4 (Harvin, Nicks, and Maclin) are head and shoulders better than Blackmon and I would put Britt in that category as well if he wasn't such an idiot off the field and is coming off a major injury. Is it ture that Blackmon weighed in at 207? Wow.
ebcpastor2004
Footballguy
I guess I should also ask, do you agree with his premise that WR success is "often dictated by what team chooses you"? I guess you can limit your answer to 2009 or stretch it out more if you like. I don't stand a chance of getting Blacmon in this year's rookie draft, but I am interested in what his future prospects might be when compared to others. It is beginning to look like he may be overrated, both in real life & in fantasy.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
If he were drafted by the Patriots, Chargers, or Saints, then I would have to take pause with my attitude toward Blackmon. Those QBs can make a lot of WRs look better than they are.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I think this sounds eerily similar to Crabtree. I think the numbers DO matter to some degree - both to GMs and in some cases in terms of actual NFL performance.
I think if he could run a 4.5 like many folks seem to assume, he would do it. He might be a mid 4.6 guy in reality. And if he ran that at the combine, he would drop (conversely, I think if he would run a low 4.5, he'd really help his chances of going top 5). That could be OK since everything else seems to be there, but it does have an impact. And it's not like he's exactly a HUGE receiver either. He's got solid size and height, but AJ Green and Fitz et al all have 3 inches on the guy (meaning they are often 5 inches taller than the guys covering them instead of 2). There are obviously a million other factors that go in to getting open and making a catch, but when you are significantly bigger and/or faster than the guy covering you it sure does help.
I think GMs are ideally looking for do it all types - guys who can be great over the middle, have great hands and quicks, AND burn guys deep with ease. Not a lot of those cats out there though. One dimensional guys can be VERY effective with that one dimension, e.g. Boldin (physicality), Welker (quickness) several others, but teams don't like to pay a premium for them. And to be honest, when you scan down the list of top receiving options in the NFL, you don't see a lot of guys who aren't either considerably bigger or faster (or both) than Blackmon.
I'm not saying bust at all, I'm just saying I'm not sure he's got the upside of a Calvin or an AJ.
I think if he could run a 4.5 like many folks seem to assume, he would do it. He might be a mid 4.6 guy in reality. And if he ran that at the combine, he would drop (conversely, I think if he would run a low 4.5, he'd really help his chances of going top 5). That could be OK since everything else seems to be there, but it does have an impact. And it's not like he's exactly a HUGE receiver either. He's got solid size and height, but AJ Green and Fitz et al all have 3 inches on the guy (meaning they are often 5 inches taller than the guys covering them instead of 2). There are obviously a million other factors that go in to getting open and making a catch, but when you are significantly bigger and/or faster than the guy covering you it sure does help.
I think GMs are ideally looking for do it all types - guys who can be great over the middle, have great hands and quicks, AND burn guys deep with ease. Not a lot of those cats out there though. One dimensional guys can be VERY effective with that one dimension, e.g. Boldin (physicality), Welker (quickness) several others, but teams don't like to pay a premium for them. And to be honest, when you scan down the list of top receiving options in the NFL, you don't see a lot of guys who aren't either considerably bigger or faster (or both) than Blackmon.
I'm not saying bust at all, I'm just saying I'm not sure he's got the upside of a Calvin or an AJ.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Very well said and thougt out. Blackmon may very well become a good WR in the NFL and he probably will, but WR #1? Elite? I don't think he will, but I'm no expert on the matter.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
as some have said Hakeem Nicks is the closest comparison. Both are 6'1, Blackmon 207, Nicks weighed 212 at the combine. Bowe and Boldin are significantly heavier. Now what are the differences between Blackmon and Nicks? Both good hands, similar speed. Nicks is lucky to have Eli throwing to him but does seem to be a talent who would thrive anywhere.
soothsayer
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
speed perhaps? Nicks ran a combine 4.51, not sure Blackmon is that fast.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I think the fact he measured just a tad shorter than 6'1" is more concerning.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Would be sweet if he fell to 9.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
"Fast guys run fast, slow guys run slow, I'm more concerned with the variables" -Mike Mayock.
Although there is a serious over reaction with all things combine, nobody is expecting Blackmon to run a 4.37. If he comes out blazing, people are going to denounce it to a fast track or go insane with projections. Again, game film is the best source in every way possible. Nobody EVER talks about going back to look at more combine film, they look at a specific game vs LSU, Alabama or Florida.
Although there is a serious over reaction with all things combine, nobody is expecting Blackmon to run a 4.37. If he comes out blazing, people are going to denounce it to a fast track or go insane with projections. Again, game film is the best source in every way possible. Nobody EVER talks about going back to look at more combine film, they look at a specific game vs LSU, Alabama or Florida.
ExaltedOne
Footballguy
What will really hurt him is if he runs slower than Michael Floyd, who unlike Blackmon has the prototypical size (6'3" 220).
I think it's possible (but not likely) that with a really nice time Floyd could even leapfrog Blackmon and be the first guy picked (with both going outside the top 10).
I think it's possible (but not likely) that with a really nice time Floyd could even leapfrog Blackmon and be the first guy picked (with both going outside the top 10).
cstu
Footballguy
I would bet than Nicks is faster than Blackmon, but is it that much to make a difference? A lot of people passed on Nicks in 2009 due to his perceived 'average-ness'.speed perhaps? Nicks ran a combine 4.51, not sure Blackmon is that fast.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
He doesn't play that fast. However, everyone knows he's a player and that's all that matters.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Decent.He needed to run a sub 4.5 forty.I know some are down on him but I've always felt he looked like a legit #1 WR prospect.Running a forty where he needed is big news.Thanks for sharing.
i agree with EBF that Blackmon will be a solid pro, i just don't see elite potential unless he is paired with a great QB. Speed is not what his game is about so let us remember to adjust today's 40 time with the OSU track. Here are a couple of tweets:
If Blackmon's times were indeed 4.41-4.46 range then adjusted for the fast track they are right in 4.5-4.55 range (4.49-4.54 specifically).
Really not that big of a deal, but it has been said that you should take some of these pro-day 40's with a grain of salt for a reason.
i see a clear top 3 tier for WRs in this rookie draft and the difference may be where they are taken and by what team.
If Blackmon's times were indeed 4.41-4.46 range then adjusted for the fast track they are right in 4.5-4.55 range (4.49-4.54 specifically).
Really not that big of a deal, but it has been said that you should take some of these pro-day 40's with a grain of salt for a reason.
i see a clear top 3 tier for WRs in this rookie draft and the difference may be where they are taken and by what team.
eaglezzz
Moderator
I was big on AJ Green last year and this year I am the same with Blackmon. Especially in Dynasty PPR Leagues, landing the rights to Blackmon is only going to help you. His draft stock just shot up now after that 40 time. I think he is clearly ahead of Floyd and Wright as the #1 WR off the board.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
He's not a burner, but that's plenty of speed considering the other tools Blackmon possesses.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
You definitely like to take risks
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Would former Jaguar Jimmy Smith be a decent comparison? Maybe a rich man's Muhsin Muhammad?
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Muhsin more so than Jimmy, IMO.
cstu
Footballguy
That time was as good as I could have expected. The only thing that worried me was a 4.6 time and even with this one adjusted for the track it's plenty fast. Nicks, who is my best comparable to Blackmon, ran a 4.49 and 4.51 at the combine. It's safe to say they are in the same neighborhood speed-wise.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
His time on that super fast track AND (his personal clock guys
) equates to normally at least a 4.56 on his best day and probably closer to 4.59.
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Gandalf
Footballguy
Are you sure not closer to a 4.58???His time on that super fast track AND (his personal clock guys
smashingsilver
Footballguy
This stuff is getting old. You don't like him, we get it; but if you don't have anything relevant to add, please put a sock in it.His time on that super fast track AND (his personal clock guys
cstu
Footballguy
Mayock had him at 4.48 and 4.49.His time on that super fast track AND (his personal clock guys
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I didn't make the fast track stuff upThis stuff is getting old. You don't like him, we get it; but if you don't have anything relevant to add, please put a sock in it.His time on that super fast track AND (his personal clock guys
soothsayer
Footballguy
Is this true in a pro day v pro day comparison?
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
This is big news.The top three picks are practically in the books, Luck, RG III, Kalil.'cstu said:Mayock had him at 4.48 and 4.49.... Justin Blackmon widely was criticized when he chose not to run the 40-yard dash during the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis because of a hamstring injury.'JohnnyU said:His time on that super fast track AND (his personal clock guys'Stephen Holloway said:
Blackmon’s decision placed more importance on Oklahoma State’s pro day, and he certainly did not disappoint scouts when he ran Friday.
NFL Network draft expert Mike Mayock reported Blackmon ran unofficial times of 4.48 and 4.49 seconds at his pro day, putting to rest any concern that he’d post a slow time in the 40. Blackmon is Mayock’s top-ranked wideout in April’s draft.
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch later reported, via Twitter, that Blackmon’s official 40 time was 4.46.
It’s a pretty good time is what it is. There’s no question about that. I think people thought he’d run in the low 4.5s.
One of the evaluators who was there said Blackmon was very explosive and very powerful. He reminds you a great deal of Michael Irvin with one exception: His hands are good but not great like Irvin’s.
The conditions Friday in Stillwater, Okla., were ideal (60 degrees). In addition to his 40 times, Blackmon had a 10-foot-3 broad jump, 35-inch vertical jump, 4.43-second short shuttle, 7.22 three-cone drill. The cones were taller than usual and the surface was slippery, however, so don’t take his three-cone time at face value.
All 32 teams were at the pro day, ...
Blackmon may have made a good case to be #4.
Xue
Footballguy
Mayock is pretty close then.I find it laughable that this video claims Blackmon ran a 4.39:Mayock had him at 4.48 and 4.49.His time on that super fast track AND (his personal clock guys
FIRST of all, the video is 24 FPS. His timer starts in frame 151 after Blackmon lifts his hand and his foot touches across in frame 263. (263-151)/24 = 4.67.
The NFL Combine starts the timer when the hand lifts, but if you calculate from when he extends his back foot after frame 155 Blackmon ran a 4.5 flat. (263-153)/24 = 4.50
I have no idea where he gets a 4.39 from.
You can download and see and calculate yourself. Or you can choose to be ignorant. http://www.mediafire.com/?efdev4knkx4xfcp
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cstu
Footballguy
All I want to see with 40 times is that the player is in line with what successful comparable NFL players run. 4.39, 4.50, it's all the same to me really. I have no doubts about the guy's ability to play WR in the NFL and it's good to know that speed won't be an issue.Mayock is pretty close then.I find it laughable that this video claims Blackmon ran a 4.39:Mayock had him at 4.48 and 4.49.His time on that super fast track AND (his personal clock guys
