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Bloom Projections (1 Viewer)

Meh, I don't see the big deal here, he was a top 5 rb this week, project 134yds, 178yds or 200yds. Your starting him everywhere you have him and as far as dfs goes he had about as much potential as anyone to finish as the rb1. Are there really people who would have used what looks like a fairly obvious projection typo to actually change anything? How far could you move him up from top 5?   

 
Meh, I don't see the big deal here, he was a top 5 rb this week, project 134yds, 178yds or 200yds. Your starting him everywhere you have him and as far as dfs goes he had about as much potential as anyone to finish as the rb1. Are there really people who would have used what looks like a fairly obvious projection typo to actually change anything? How far could you move him up from top 5?   
Understood.

But it's the principle of it and the fact we had an error. That's a problem. The bigger point to me though is in future years, I think we'll be able to address the problem and catch it early. 

 
I understand why you might say something like that. You have no reason to believe me other than to believe me but I can say confidently nobody at Footballguys "mailed it in". 

If anything, we gave Week 16 even more effort than normal which is why it's so crushing to have an error. 

I understand your shot. We made an error with one projector on Derrick Henry. I deserve criticism for the error. But it wasn't for lack of effort. 
You also had Finley listed for Cinny, Stidham for NE, and no one projected for Washington.  

 
You also had Finley listed for Cinny, Stidham for NE, and no one projected for Washington.  
Understood. Any errors are on me. I own that.

My point is any error wasn't for lack of effort. We did not "mail it in". Errors are one thing. Lack of effort is a different animal and way worse in my opinion. 

 
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Understood. Any errors are on me. I own that.

My point is any error wasn't for lack of effort. We did not "mail it in". Errors are one thing. Lack of effort is a different animal and way worse in my opinion. 
Joe, appreciate what you’re saying... just so you know, the volume of mistakes increased significantly later in the season. I’m in enough leagues and check the projections here enough where I spot “weirdness” frequently, and there’s definitely more weirdness in the last 2-3 weeks. I agree it’s not lack of effort - I’ve seen Bloom update projections frequently within an hour of an event happening. It is lack of quality control, IMO - there are either fat finger type mistakes or things that didn’t get updated as new info emerged, but should have been, especially for marginal players (all the examples BnB gave above).

 
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Well evidently this was an error and not poor projecting. Totally different issue but same end result to the customer. As a side note, the fact that I thought the Henry projection was real and not a typo should speak to who’s projections I have faith in.

Sirloin doesn’t taste as good after you’ve been fed filet and lobster for several months. I get @Joe Bryant perspective and props to him for owning up to the mistakes and more importantly planning to address it next year. I hope the he understands that many see this as getting a bad meal at Morton’s as opposed to a bad meal at McDonald’s. The Morton’s customer will have a much higher bar. 

Ive edited a couple of posts to give Joe the benefit of the doubt that the effort was the same as usual and this week was a quality control issue. After 25 years he’s more than earned my respect that his word is accurate. 

 
Well evidently this was an error and not poor projecting. Totally different issue but same end result to the customer. As a side note, the fact that I thought the Henry projection was real and not a typo should speak to who’s projections I have faith in.

Sirloin doesn’t taste as good after you’ve been fed filet and lobster for several months. I get @Joe Bryant perspective and props to him for owning up to the mistakes and more importantly planning to address it next year. I hope the he understands that many see this as getting a bad meal at Morton’s as opposed to a bad meal at McDonald’s. The Morton’s customer will have a much higher bar. 

Ive edited a couple of posts to give Joe the benefit of the doubt that the effort was the same as usual and this week was a quality control issue. After 25 years he’s more than earned my respect that his word is accurate. 
Thank you. I very much appreciate that. I'd hoped that was how you were seeing it but didn't get that from the posts. I'm sure it's just a combination of written word being a tough way to communicate sometimes plus me being embarrassed for my error. We've known for a while we needed to have a more protective system in place to catch outlier stuff and that's already been underway. This just highlights the need and that we're on the right track with an updated system. 

Bottom line, while it's always painful to fail at something, I think this ultimately will help us have a better product in the future. 

 
Just saw this and didn't want to start its own thread but is sure to be of interest to the 'projection/accuracy' crowd.

I'm not sure if this is the same guy(s) who track NFL Draft Accuracy or not but its good to get an overview and see if the annual rankings continue to show one or a handful as being the most accurate.

Go to the link for the top-ten.

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings: Most Accurate Experts

 
As a slight aside to this I'm hoping Bloom and all the rankers will update their Dynasty Rankings over the next few weeks and that Dan Hindery will also have an update to his Dynasty Trade Value Chart. Both are very helpful for off season trade thoughts/planning. And BIG THANKS to Joe and the crew for all the hard work in this trying season.

 
As a slight aside to this I'm hoping Bloom and all the rankers will update their Dynasty Rankings over the next few weeks and that Dan Hindery will also have an update to his Dynasty Trade Value Chart. Both are very helpful for off season trade thoughts/planning. And BIG THANKS to Joe and the crew for all the hard work in this trying season.
Thanks. I agree for sure on the Dynasty updates and I'll get with our guys to make sure we're all on the same page. 

 
Thanks. I agree for sure on the Dynasty updates and I'll get with our guys to make sure we're all on the same page. 
The dynasty IDP ranking haven’t been updated in quite some time.  Good time to update those rankings, as rosters are about to be locked, and I’d like to know the dynasty outlook of IDP players going forward. Thanks

 
Just want to express some love for Bloom’s content, even if that projection did suck.   Bloom, Waldman, Rudnicki, Norton, and Bramel are my essential reads every week.
I concur.  Bloom's stuff is the content I am most eager to read each week.  I would say his player tiers, sleepers, and buy low-sell high are my favorite weekly content.  I understand that his material is more of a "hot take" than other writers, but that is also why I enjoy reading his stuff more than some of the others.  He takes more chances and has some misses, but he has definitely helped me identify some trends and outliers in dynasty.  This, in turn, has allowed me to consistently pick up players before they enter they general FF consciousness  (usually the following week).

As an aside, I would love to see a more robust weekly player tier system  - maybe it's just me, but tiers/detailed rankings are way more useful to me than projections.  I didn't even notice Bloom's typo on Henry last week because I only really care about how players are ranked compared to each other (and Henry was a top option in every format).  Even just adding tier breaks and injury comments to the site's official rankings would be a useful addition IMO.

 
Love Bloom’s stuff as well... this isn’t a “Bloom” issue - there are mistakes with many projections, mostly ones that are easily correctable. As another obvious example, Tietgen projects Stephon Gilmore for 3.7 tackles this week, right above the blurb on the Gilmore player page (dated Dec 23) that says he’s out for the year...

 
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I don't see a projection for any PIT TE and Matt Barkley has projections but not Josh Allen. I don't see any news that Allen, Ebron, McDonald are out this week. The only two players I was interested in seeing projections for are Ebron and Allen and I see "errors" for both players @Joe Bryant

 
Meh, I don't see the big deal here, he was a top 5 rb this week, project 134yds, 178yds or 200yds. Your starting him everywhere you have him and as far as dfs goes he had about as much potential as anyone to finish as the rb1. Are there really people who would have used what looks like a fairly obvious projection typo to actually change anything? How far could you move him up from top 5?   
I love Bloom and I’m loyal so I planned to ignore this, but I’m guessing from this post you don’t seriously use the DFS tools here. 

Even to this minute, if you go run the single/multi lineup optimizer for week 16, you will get a crazy amount of Henry.  That is because his value on Blooms projections were 106 (next highest RB was 58).  With a projection like that, even the consensus was drastically weighted. 
 

I’m not going to crap on FBG or Bloom who is a GREAT guy and worker here. We are all responsible for what lineups we submit and how many. With that said, if you think this didn’t matter to serious DFS players you are mistaken. 

 
The "generic" direction these kinds of threads take are point at the shirt / you're responsible for your team - and you absolutely are. I don't have any sympathy for subscribers who think they are paying for FBG to tell them who to start every week and that they should always get it right but I'm hoping there aren't too many subscribers like that. What is reasonable to expect from FBG lies somewhere between "point at the shirt" and infallibility. There was an instance this year where a WR was declared out on Friday and the projections for his positional teammates never moved an inch. Things like that (broadly speaking) concern me.

 
Just saw this and didn't want to start its own thread but is sure to be of interest to the 'projection/accuracy' crowd.

I'm not sure if this is the same guy(s) who track NFL Draft Accuracy or not but its good to get an overview and see if the annual rankings continue to show one or a handful as being the most accurate.

Go to the link for the top-ten.

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings: Most Accurate Experts
I guess FBG doesn't participate?

 
habsfan said:
The "generic" direction these kinds of threads take are point at the shirt / you're responsible for your team - and you absolutely are. I don't have any sympathy for subscribers who think they are paying for FBG to tell them who to start every week and that they should always get it right but I'm hoping there aren't too many subscribers like that. What is reasonable to expect from FBG lies somewhere between "point at the shirt" and infallibility. There was an instance this year where a WR was declared out on Friday and the projections for his positional teammates never moved an inch. Things like that (broadly speaking) concern me.
Respectfully, I disagree. I will give you two specific recent examples where these inaccuracies either impacted me or almost impacted me this year:

Week 16: I had a decision to make between Tee Higgins and Russell Gage. I knew Brandon Allen was cleared, but both Dodds and Bloom projected Ryan Finley to start and Allen to sit, and never updated the rankings. I needed to make the call by Saturday, and assumed both Dodds and Bloom know something, and Finley will start and benched Higgins. I wouldn't have made that call if I knew Allen would start. Of note, I've seen plenty of situations where FBG hedges heavily in situations where they are not sure who will start. For example, Alex Smith and Haskins have had their stats split right down the middle in several weeks where the starter wasn't clear, to indicate that FBG didn't know which player would get the nod. This wasn't done for Allen and Finley in week 16.

Week 17: I now am making a call between Tee Higgins (note a theme here :-)) and Jamison Crowder. I was pretty set to start Crowder, and then thought - lets just double check if Gilmore covers him. I thought I heard Gilmore is out for the year, but when I go to IDP projections, he has numbers in expected tackles, INTs, etc. I had to go to another place on FBG to find that he's indeed out for the year, and the projections are not accurate.

So, this wasn't so much that I wanted FBG to tell me who to start, I just want accurate information from FBG, so I can make my own decisions. That's not too much to ask, right?

 
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I don't see a projection for any PIT TE and Matt Barkley has projections but not Josh Allen. I don't see any news that Allen, Ebron, McDonald are out this week. The only two players I was interested in seeing projections for are Ebron and Allen and I see "errors" for both players @Joe Bryant
Thanks. I'll see what Bloom is thinking on Ebron. Dodds and Tremblay are projecting for him. Not sure what you mean on Allen. Bloom has him for stats but thinks Barkley will see more work. 

 
zed2283 said:
I guess FBG doesn't participate?
Correct. in the early years, a lot of our staff participated and we did exceptionally well. A few years ago, we made the decision to amicably not participate. They are an excellent site and a very strong competitor. We made the decision to keep our content just for Premium Subscribers. 

 
I love Bloom and I’m loyal so I planned to ignore this, but I’m guessing from this post you don’t seriously use the DFS tools here. 

Even to this minute, if you go run the single/multi lineup optimizer for week 16, you will get a crazy amount of Henry.  That is because his value on Blooms projections were 106 (next highest RB was 58).  With a projection like that, even the consensus was drastically weighted. 
 

I’m not going to crap on FBG or Bloom who is a GREAT guy and worker here. We are all responsible for what lineups we submit and how many. With that said, if you think this didn’t matter to serious DFS players you are mistaken. 
Fair point and you are correct I do not use the DFS tools here or really any lineup optimizers and my "meh" response was definitely more from a redraft, dynasty pov. I play a bit but not a ton of DFS and prefer to build my own lineups. Were I serious DFS player using an optimizer I would likely use several and compare sites like I do for redraft and dynasty rankings and then use all of them to make my own decisions. I was heavily weighted on Henry last week because I thought he was a great start but he didn't pan out.  Again your point is a fair one and I hope the optimizer has made you enough money this yr so the glitch in the matrix this week didn't hurt you too much. Serious question, has the lineup optimizer worked out for you? Im thinking I probably should use similar tools myself but i'm usually so focused on all my redraft and dynasty teams I really don't have that much time to spend on DFS and don't build that many lineups. 

 
Thanks. I'll see what Bloom is thinking on Ebron. Dodds and Tremblay are projecting for him. Not sure what you mean on Allen. Bloom has him for stats but thinks Barkley will see more work. 
Bloom updated Ebron. Had some hesitancy sitting Roethlisberger. 

 
Thanks. I'll see what Bloom is thinking on Ebron. Dodds and Tremblay are projecting for him. Not sure what you mean on Allen. Bloom has him for stats but thinks Barkley will see more work. 
I mean Josh Allen was not in his projections at the time of my post. He is now. Thanks.

 
Fair point and you are correct I do not use the DFS tools here or really any lineup optimizers and my "meh" response was definitely more from a redraft, dynasty pov. I play a bit but not a ton of DFS and prefer to build my own lineups. Were I serious DFS player using an optimizer I would likely use several and compare sites like I do for redraft and dynasty rankings and then use all of them to make my own decisions. I was heavily weighted on Henry last week because I thought he was a great start but he didn't pan out.  Again your point is a fair one and I hope the optimizer has made you enough money this yr so the glitch in the matrix this week didn't hurt you too much. Serious question, has the lineup optimizer worked out for you? Im thinking I probably should use similar tools myself but i'm usually so focused on all my redraft and dynasty teams I really don't have that much time to spend on DFS and don't build that many lineups. 
I don’t want to get down that rabbit hole in this thread, but it’s a part of my GPP process. I think there are much better ways to build a cash lineup than using the single lineup optimal. 
 

If you are done with season long this week and want to discuss, feel free to PM me to discuss. 

 
Respectfully, I disagree. I will give you two specific recent examples where these inaccuracies either impacted me or almost impacted me this year:

Week 16: I had a decision to make between Tee Higgins and Russell Gage. I knew Brandon Allen was cleared, but both Dodds and Bloom projected Ryan Finley to start and Allen to sit, and never updated the rankings. I needed to make the call by Saturday, and assumed both Dodds and Bloom know something, and Finley will start and benched Higgins. I wouldn't have made that call if I knew Allen would start. Of note, I've seen plenty of situations where FBG hedges heavily in situations where they are not sure who will start. For example, Alex Smith and Haskins have had their stats split right down the middle in several weeks where the starter wasn't clear, to indicate that FBG didn't know which player would get the nod. This wasn't done for Allen and Finley in week 16.

Week 17: I now am making a call between Tee Higgins (note a theme here :-)) and Jamison Crowder. I was pretty set to start Crowder, and then thought - lets just double check if Gilmore covers him. I thought I heard Gilmore is out for the year, but when I go to IDP projections, he has numbers in expected tackles, INTs, etc. I had to go to another place on FBG to find that he's indeed out for the year, and the projections are not accurate.

So, this wasn't so much that I wanted FBG to tell me who to start, I just want accurate information from FBG, so I can make my own decisions. That's not too much to ask, right?
I'm not sure we do disagree. I said I am concerned when player rankings don't change even when information that clearly should affect those rankings is released and confirmed. Of course this is assuming there is sufficient time to make the changes (i.e. I'm not talking about Sunday GTDs). We may disagree in that I don't expect FBGs to be Shefter-level connected and "know something" that is legitimately up in the air.

Part of the issue is the excellent online UX and interface of Draft / Matchup / League Dominator. Aspects of it are real time / synced (eg. league rosters) and that UX can lead to the perception that everything is (or should be) that way. Obviously rankings still have individuals in the background that have to "manually" do something. The question is, as subscribers, what is a reasonable "SLA" for that?

 
Part of the issue is the excellent online UX and interface of Draft / Matchup / League Dominator. Aspects of it are real time / synced (eg. league rosters) and that UX can lead to the perception that everything is (or should be) that way. Obviously rankings still have individuals in the background that have to "manually" do something. The question is, as subscribers, what is a reasonable "SLA" for that?
I like your SLA point. I also think there should be better consistency between the projections and all the other sources of info FBG publishes. The daily updates, Sunday updates, web site player updates, and projections should be in sync, so that if one of them “knows” a player is out, the others update to reflect that.

 
I like your SLA point. I also think there should be better consistency between the projections and all the other sources of info FBG publishes. The daily updates, Sunday updates, web site player updates, and projections should be in sync, so that if one of them “knows” a player is out, the others update to reflect that.
Agreed. For a player that's designated as out, that should be easy. We're working on a "master override" feature for 2021 that will allow us to make quick changes.

But for the vast majority of situations, it's much more gray area.

It's Bloom feeling worried about Eric Ebron on Friday. That's not an error. That's Bloom not being sure of Ebron's projections yet on a Friday for a game on Sunday. There are a ton of players in this boat every week during the week. We'll be working on that too.

It's also things like New Orleans RBs tomorrow and exactly how all the work will spread. There will be different opinions on that among our projectors I'm sure. 

 
I don't see a projection for any PIT TE and Matt Barkley has projections but not Josh Allen. I don't see any news that Allen, Ebron, McDonald are out this week. The only two players I was interested in seeing projections for are Ebron and Allen and I see "errors" for both players @Joe Bryant
Good example of how challenging this can be. We initially had Allen not playing. Then added some. Now it's looking like he may go enough to get the team record. To be determined. 

But bigger picture is getting clear on what's an error like inputting Derrick Henry incorrectly and what's a different opinion. Zero complaints as this is the job we sign up for. But I do think it's important to be clear. 

 
How dare someone project Henry for a 200 yard game in the last 2 weeks of the season?

I appreciate the big game projections--especially for someone like Henry who has done it on several occasions.  I actually dislike how FF writers try to be conservative.  72.5 yards and 0.6 TD's.  Get out of here with that mess.  If you think he's RB1 on the week, give me a big game of projections.  

 
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