Bold Prediction: I Have a Pretty Strong Suspicion.... (1 Viewer)

[kremenull]

IMO, there are some strong indicators that this season will not go so well in Indy, especially based on this team's expectations and recent success.

Let's start with the defense. There have been no upgrades that I see will make any difference for this unit. Bob Sanders is the key to this unit and he tends to wear down over the long season possibly due to his stature combined with his very physical style. Add to this that Freeney has been underwhelming the past couple of seasons, as well as injury-prone, and I see teams being able to have their way with this defense reminiscent of the years before the Super Bowl season.

Sure, the offense will still put up plenty of points and the main characters will have good seasons. However, I'm not so sure that Manning will enjoy one of his better seasons, I suspect that this will be one of his worst by his standards. The injuries to both he and Marvin translate to a slow start to me, and I'm not sold on the Colts being able to line up and just run the ball all day on teams to offset a (potential) sluggish passing game in the early portion of the season.

These signs are pointing to this year's Colts team struggling early ala the Saints of last year, maybe not to the same degree but struggling out the gate (first 4-5 weeks) nonetheless. I don't believe that this teams strikes fear into opponents as they may have in the past. I was at the Raiders-Colts game last season and the Colts just didn't seem to be awesome, which is what I was expecting, fairly or unfairly, and from what I've seen the Chargers do against them over the last several years, not just last year, I see a not so great season in store in the new stadium.

For many teams right now, 10-6, possibly 9-7, isn't disappointing. But with Indy's expectations, this would not be good and I see the Jags overtaking them in the division and a first-round exit out of the playoffs, if they qualify.

 

[kaa]

Tony Dungy has been routinely called a playoff choker, and in fact it was the 06 playoff run that supposedly removed this label - although his Colts promptly choked in their first game at home against the Chargers last january. If anything, 06 was the aberration. Not sure you're going out on a limb here.

 

[moleculo]

Tony Dungy has been routinely called a playoff choker, and in fact it was the 06 playoff run that supposedly removed this label - although his Colts promptly choked in their first game at home against the Chargers last january. If anything, 06 was the aberration. Not sure you're going out on a limb here.

huh? Colts have won 12+ games for the past 5 consecutive seasons. Claiming 9-7 is indeed a bold prediction (one with which I strongly disagree with).

 

[Limp Ditka]

And it starts in week one, my friend.

 

[maxwelledison]

IMO, there are some strong indicators that this season will not go so well in Indy, especially based on this team's expectations and recent success. Let's start with the defense. There have been no upgrades that I see will make any difference for this unit. Bob Sanders is the key to this unit and he tends to wear down over the long season possibly due to his stature combined with his very physical style. Add to this that Freeney has been underwhelming the past couple of seasons, as well as injury-prone, and I see teams being able to have their way with this defense reminiscent of the years before the Super Bowl season. Sure, the offense will still put up plenty of points and the main characters will have good seasons. However, I'm not so sure that Manning will enjoy one of his better seasons, I suspect that this will be one of his worst by his standards. The injuries to both he and Marvin translate to a slow start to me, and I'm not sold on the Colts being able to line up and just run the ball all day on teams to offset a (potential) sluggish passing game in the early portion of the season. These signs are pointing to this year's Colts team struggling early ala the Saints of last year, maybe not to the same degree but struggling out the gate (first 4-5 weeks) nonetheless. I don't believe that this teams strikes fear into opponents as they may have in the past. I was at the Raiders-Colts game last season and the Colts just didn't seem to be awesome, which is what I was expecting, fairly or unfairly, and from what I've seen the Chargers do against them over the last several years, not just last year, I see a not so great season in store in the new stadium. For many teams right now, 10-6, possibly 9-7, isn't disappointing. But with Indy's expectations, this would not be good and I see the Jags overtaking them in the division and a first-round exit out of the playoffs, if they qualify.

Very interesting points. You will get flamed, of course, but it doesn't mean you are wrong.I have always thought Dungy was a pretender. He has a ring only because he backed into Peyton Manning and had the luxury of facing the Bears, Lovie and Rex Grossman in the big game. Polian is good, though, and the team may have enough to get to 10 wins on talent alone.

 

[travdogg]

Indy's defense could finish 32nd in the league and they'd still probably be a playoff team. I'm not worried about Manning at all and I don't think they need Harrison(they'll be better with him) I outside of New England I don't see a safer playoff team.

I like the outside the box thinking, but if any team is going to bust this year its going to be the Giants.

 

[kaa]

Tony Dungy has been routinely called a playoff choker, and in fact it was the 06 playoff run that supposedly removed this label - although his Colts promptly choked in their first game at home against the Chargers last january. If anything, 06 was the aberration. Not sure you're going out on a limb here.

huh? Colts have won 12+ games for the past 5 consecutive seasons. Claiming 9-7 is indeed a bold prediction (one with which I strongly disagree with).

Actually the OP also said first round exit. Predicting Dungy to underperform in the playoffs really isn't a stretch.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I agree wit some of what the OP is saying. There are a lot of things working against the Indianapolis COlts this season.

1. As the OP said uptop this defense does not look so good. I think there is some cause for concern, they won a SB without being able to stop the run, but eventually that stuff has to catch up to you and I think in 2008 it will. Freeney doesn't appear to be healthy yet and with a less than stellar pass rush the COlts could be in a lot of trouble on defense.

2. Peyton Manning is not healthy right now. He is entering his 11th season and has never had a major injury that knocked him out for part or half the season. Marino, Aikman, Montana, almost all of them have had their share of injuries so the odds are in favor of him eventually being in and out of the line up.

3. The schedule is really tough. They play some very tough teams against the run and the pass...of course the COlts have a terrific offense but you don't like to see them facing the toughest teams every single week either.

4. New stadium...before you crack up consider all the teams that get new stadiums and how they fare afterwards. Philly has steadily declined since they got their new stadium, Denver didn't seem to have the same advantage they did in Mile High, RFK to FedEx Field, Orange Bowl to Joe Robbie...teams just sometimes don't do well at first when they get a new stadium.

5. Their division is getting tougher and tougher. Look at Houston and their last 2-3 drafts...they are loaded with starters and players on the rise...yet you don't see many folks picking them to finish better thsn 8-8. Jax is downright nasty. Tennessee never goes quietly into the night either, you can almost be sure Fisher will have a team trying to make the playoffs. Eventually you have to fall off the pedestal, Favre didn't win the NFC North every year.

It's very possible we see a dip in Indy this year and I don't think 9-7 is completely off the wall either.

 

[bucsbaby]

As a Bucs and Dungy fan I have to come to his defense. He was a major contributor to building the TB team that won the superbowl. I believe TB should have given him a ring for that one. Gruden walked into a championship team and only provided a bit of inside information. Regardless, the Bucs would've won anyway. Then he goes to Indy and does an excellent job there culminating in a championship. He's an excellent coach, deserving of high honours imo. Excellent track record, stand-up guy. Very few coaches can boast superbowl win after superbowl win, so I wouldn't knock him for not having a ring on every finger.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I agree wit some of what the OP is saying. There are a lot of things working against the Indianapolis COlts this season.1. As the OP said uptop this defense does not look so good. I think there is some cause for concern, they won a SB without being able to stop the run, but eventually that stuff has to catch up to you and I think in 2008 it will. Freeney doesn't appear to be healthy yet and with a less than stellar pass rush the COlts could be in a lot of trouble on defense. 2. Peyton Manning is not healthy right now. He is entering his 11th season and has never had a major injury that knocked him out for part or half the season. Marino, Aikman, Montana, almost all of them have had their share of injuries so the odds are in favor of him eventually being in and out of the line up. 3. The schedule is really tough. They play some very tough teams against the run and the pass...of course the COlts have a terrific offense but you don't like to see them facing the toughest teams every single week either. 4. New stadium...before you crack up consider all the teams that get new stadiums and how they fare afterwards. Philly has steadily declined since they got their new stadium, Denver didn't seem to have the same advantage they did in Mile High, RFK to FedEx Field, Orange Bowl to Joe Robbie...teams just sometimes don't do well at first when they get a new stadium. 5. Their division is getting tougher and tougher. Look at Houston and their last 2-3 drafts...they are loaded with starters and players on the rise...yet you don't see many folks picking them to finish better thsn 8-8. Jax is downright nasty. Tennessee never goes quietly into the night either, you can almost be sure Fisher will have a team trying to make the playoffs. Eventually you have to fall off the pedestal, Favre didn't win the NFC North every year. It's very possible we see a dip in Indy this year and I don't think 9-7 is completely off the wall either.

fwiw after recovery from the bursa sac injury (acording to my dr gf) is a semi-permanent one. Since that knee no longer has the fluid sac on that joint, the joint in question will have LT decreased flexibility and movement. That seems like a bad thing for a qb to have to deal with imo. Though Manning is one of the people who obviously could deal with the pain, I don't like the idea of him losing any of his already questionable pocket mobility. Its the small movements to buy a lil time that really help his game. Unless he FALLs to me, I think I'll be passing on him.

 

[Limp Ditka]

I agree wit some of what the OP is saying. There are a lot of things working against the Indianapolis COlts this season.1. As the OP said uptop this defense does not look so good. I think there is some cause for concern, they won a SB without being able to stop the run, but eventually that stuff has to catch up to you and I think in 2008 it will. Freeney doesn't appear to be healthy yet and with a less than stellar pass rush the COlts could be in a lot of trouble on defense.

The Colts were able to get to the playoffs without stopping the run. To say they were able to win the Super Bowl without stopping the run is just flat out wrong.Wild Card Round vs KC: 17/44Divison Round vs Balt: 20/83Conf Champ vs NE: 24/93Super Bowl vs Chi: 18/111That's 82.5 YPG and 4.1 YPC on their run through the playoffs.

 

[switz]

Let's start with the defense. There have been no upgrades that I see will make any difference for this unit. Bob Sanders is the key to this unit and he tends to wear down over the long season possibly due to his stature combined with his very physical style.

While Sanders did have some injury issues two seasons ago, last season he was fine. With such a short history in the NFL, it's definitely bold to make a statement like you did above.

Add to this that Freeney has been underwhelming the past couple of seasons, as well as injury-prone, and I see teams being able to have their way with this defense reminiscent of the years before the Super Bowl season.

Again, you're using a very small sample to make wide claims. Last season was the first time Freeney was really injured. And he seems like he'll be back fine this season

Sure, the offense will still put up plenty of points and the main characters will have good seasons. However, I'm not so sure that Manning will enjoy one of his better seasons, I suspect that this will be one of his worst by his standards. The injuries to both he and Marvin translate to a slow start to me, and I'm not sold on the Colts being able to line up and just run the ball all day on teams to offset a (potential) sluggish passing game in the early portion of the season.

And last year Marvin missed 8 games, the OL was a total mess, and Manning was counting on a rookie WR to be one of his primary targets. This season, outside of Manning's current injury, the offense is much more solid. You're really grasping at straws with your argument here.

These signs are pointing to this year's Colts team struggling early ala the Saints of last year, maybe not to the same degree but struggling out the gate (first 4-5 weeks) nonetheless. I don't believe that this teams strikes fear into opponents as they may have in the past. I was at the Raiders-Colts game last season and the Colts just didn't seem to be awesome, which is what I was expecting, fairly or unfairly, and from what I've seen the Chargers do against them over the last several years, not just last year, I see a not so great season in store in the new stadium.

I think you see what you want to see. The only reason for a gloomy outlook is if Manning doesn't recover.

For many teams right now, 10-6, possibly 9-7, isn't disappointing. But with Indy's expectations, this would not be good and I see the Jags overtaking them in the division and a first-round exit out of the playoffs, if they qualify.

I can't see Indy winning less than 12 games. This team is actually in better shape than last years.

 

[Phurfur]

I hope this doesn't have anything to do with last nights game.

 

[tombonneau]

I think you might be right for reasons you listed above, but, more importantly, improvement within their division. There is a good chance they could go 4-2 or even 3-3 in a division they normally sweep. Tack on a few losses here and there, and 11-5 or 10-6 is realistic, which would be a "disappointment" in Indy. (Which really is more an indicator of their measures of success more than anything.)

If you are Indy, anything less than a first round bye likely constitutes disappointment, and it wouldn't shock me to see them winning the division at 11-5 with SD & NE earning the byes.

ETA: Potential distraction of Dungy lame duck season and will-he-or-won't-he-retire debates should also be considered.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I hope this doesn't have anything to do with last nights game.

I posted in a couple threads this spring I think Indy isn't going to be AS good as they've been the past few years. However, bringing it up the day after they get smoked in the first preseason game of the year is blah.Whether the Colts do or don't perform at the same standard as they've been doing lately has nothing to do with last night's preseason game or any other preseason game they play, for me anyway.

 

[Franknbeans]

Indy's 2-13 in their last 15 pre-season games

 

[TheFanatic]

As a Bucs and Dungy fan I have to come to his defense. He was a major contributor to building the TB team that won the superbowl. I believe TB should have given him a ring for that one. Gruden walked into a championship team and only provided a bit of inside information. Regardless, the Bucs would've won anyway. Then he goes to Indy and does an excellent job there culminating in a championship. He's an excellent coach, deserving of high honours imo. Excellent track record, stand-up guy. Very few coaches can boast superbowl win after superbowl win, so I wouldn't knock him for not having a ring on every finger.

I was thinking the same thing. If you say he backed into a ring because someone else built the team then he should get credit for the TB SB as he built that team. I think the guy is top notch. In terms of the NFL season, I think they win 10. But in terms of FFB, I think the O will be outta sight this year because of the poor D. They will have to score to win games. No way can they take it easy in the 4th quarter. They will not be grinding the clock down with Addai on the ground. They will be passing and putting up points...If they can do that in fantasy terms the D might not be so bad. If they put up a lot of points then other teams will have to try to return the favor which means lots of sacks and picks...

 

[sholditch]

IMO, there are some strong indicators that this season will not go so well in Indy, especially based on this team's expectations and recent success.

Let's start with the defense. There have been no upgrades that I see will make any difference for this unit. Bob Sanders is the key to this unit and he tends to wear down over the long season possibly due to his stature combined with his very physical style. Add to this that Freeney has been underwhelming the past couple of seasons, as well as injury-prone, and I see teams being able to have their way with this defense reminiscent of the years before the Super Bowl season.

agree

Sure, the offense will still put up plenty of points and the main characters will have good seasons. However, I'm not so sure that Manning will enjoy one of his better seasons, I suspect that this will be one of his worst by his standards. The injuries to both he and Marvin translate to a slow start to me, and I'm not sold on the Colts being able to line up and just run the ball all day on teams to offset a (potential) sluggish passing game in the early portion of the season.

disagree

These signs are pointing to this year's Colts team struggling early ala the Saints of last year, maybe not to the same degree but struggling out the gate (first 4-5 weeks) nonetheless. I don't believe that this teams strikes fear into opponents as they may have in the past. I was at the Raiders-Colts game last season and the Colts just didn't seem to be awesome, which is what I was expecting, fairly or unfairly, and from what I've seen the Chargers do against them over the last several years, not just last year, I see a not so great season in store in the new stadium.

They play the Bears first and even I will pencil in a win for them there. Then they play Minny who I think they can beat even if Minny gets Favre. The game against the Jags is a coin-flip right now. At worst 1-2 then a bye in week 4. 3-0 strong possibility.

For many teams right now, 10-6, possibly 9-7, isn't disappointing. But with Indy's expectations, this would not be good and I see the Jags overtaking them in the division and a first-round exit out of the playoffs, if they qualify.

 

[Pskov1420]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts went 9-7 this season. The AFC South is the strongest division in the league IMHO, and with the Manning injury you never know what may happen. But then I wouldn't be surprised if they went 14-2 and won the Super Bowl either.

 

[BigRed]

Let's start with the defense. There have been no upgrades that I see will make any difference for this unit. Bob Sanders is the key to this unit and he tends to wear down over the long season possibly due to his stature combined with his very physical style. Add to this that Freeney has been underwhelming the past couple of seasons, as well as injury-prone, and I see teams being able to have their way with this defense reminiscent of the years before the Super Bowl season.

That's unpossible. Polian is a genius.

I have always thought Dungy was a pretender. He has a ring only because he backed into Peyton Manning and had the luxury of facing the Bears, Lovie and Rex Grossman in the big game.

valid point.I mean, racist.

Regardless, the Bucs would've won anyway.

Sure they would've Agree he should get much (most?) of the credit for getting TB to the caliber team that it became though.

Then he goes to Indy and does an excellent job there culminating in a championship.

Already covered above. You could probably stick Rich Kotite in there as coach and eventually he'd win a SB.Well OK maybe that's pushing it a bit but you get the gist.

He's an excellent coach,

I think he's very good/not great. He and Polian have repeatedly failed to build a top D in Indy, which was a huge reason why he was brought in. If they had done that, just imagine the dynasty the Colts could've had.