What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Bounce back candidates (1 Viewer)

Th3victors

Footballguy
Who's the most likely to bouce back to their 2011 form, in order from most likely to least likely to repeat 2011 success?

1) Matthew Stafford

2) Maurice Jones Drew

3) Hakeem Nicks

4) Ryan Mathews

5) Dwayne Bowe (2010 was more impressive

 

Alkahsu

Footballguy
I say Stafford. The yards will be there and he had a receiver tackled inside the 5 yard line like 23 times last year if I remember correctly so you gotta figure the TDs will go up.

 

Grigs Allmoon

Footballguy
Stafford should definitely get at least a slight uptick.

I like the call of Mathews, too. Obviously he could break, but if he stays fairly healthy he should do well.

I'm not confident in the other three. I do like what Reid and Smith bring to the KC offense, so I suppose Bowe has a chance for overachieving.

(Is it 8:00 yet?)

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Matthews and Nicks. Both players obviously have been there before and are teams where the ideal philosophy is to use them in ways where they would bounce back. They just need to avoid the buzzard's luck.

No on Stafford because the Lions want to not throw as much so if they are more successful as a team this year, he can't throw like he did in that all-time career yardage year.

No on MJD because the Jags are different now and should have more options in the receiving game and a Lisfranc is a Lisfranc. It's just betting against the house to say a player comes back and is the same old usual in that first year.

No on Bowe because Bowe had a perfect aligning of situation those couple of years he had the monster runs. A terrible team that had no other player of use matching up against the historically worst passing defenses (I think there was a stretch there where he literally played against the 30, 29, 28, 30, and 9th pass defense that year and the 9th ranked team was Denver and Champ Bailey sat out that week).

 

CentralPA

Footballguy
Stafford will have the biggest bounce back year but a close 2nd will be Bowe. MJD, probably a distant 3rd, he'll be good but not what he once was.

 

Banger

Footballguy
Chris Johnson isn't on the list but I expect a bounce back from him.

From your list, I actually like most of those guys where they are being drafted.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Stafford will have the biggest bounce back year but a close 2nd will be Bowe. MJD, probably a distant 3rd, he'll be good but not what he once was.
LOL. So we completely disagree :)

Imagine that in a ff forum.

Ahh, the fun of fantasy.

 

finito

Footballguy
Like Nicks, MJD. Not convinced on Stafford, he just doesn't seem to be a great NFL QB to me (better fantasy QB but relies on tons of throws), although his TDs will probably go up so he could have a decent enough year.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Matthews and Nicks. Both players obviously have been there before and are teams where the ideal philosophy is to use them in ways where they would bounce back. They just need to avoid the buzzard's luck.

No on Stafford because the Lions want to not throw as much so if they are more successful as a team this year, he can't throw like he did in that all-time career yardage year.

No on MJD because the Jags are different now and should have more options in the receiving game and a Lisfranc is a Lisfranc. It's just betting against the house to say a player comes back and is the same old usual in that first year.

No on Bowe because Bowe had a perfect aligning of situation those couple of years he had the monster runs. A terrible team that had no other player of use matching up against the historically worst passing defenses (I think there was a stretch there where he literally played against the 30, 29, 28, 30, and 9th pass defense that year and the 9th ranked team was Denver and Champ Bailey sat out that week).
These are my thoughts exactly. I just don't think Stafford is really that good. Just a product of huge workload. MJD wouldn't shock me, but seems like a longshot. Bowe is reliant on a new system and on Alex Smith to do more than short passes. Again, seems like a longshot. Just too many variables.

With Mathews, the offense just can't be worse. Mike McCoy is a good offensive mind. It looks like he'll get 250 carries and goal line duty. If that offense is even mediocre, Mathews will easily be top 15. If he'd torn both ACLs I'd be a lot more worried than breaking both clavicles. Get that man some bigger pads...

Nicks, like Mathews, is almost certain to produce if healthy. They have both been top 10 at their position recently.

 

sdp1226

Footballguy
If Nicks plays 16 games, I think he's got potential to out produce Cruz. Staying with the Giants, I'd also nominate Eli to this list. Also, I think (hope) McCoy wll retrun back to his 2011 form.

 

CentralPA

Footballguy
Matthews and Nicks. Both players obviously have been there before and are teams where the ideal philosophy is to use them in ways where they would bounce back. They just need to avoid the buzzard's luck.

No on Stafford because the Lions want to not throw as much so if they are more successful as a team this year, he can't throw like he did in that all-time career yardage year.

No on MJD because the Jags are different now and should have more options in the receiving game and a Lisfranc is a Lisfranc. It's just betting against the house to say a player comes back and is the same old usual in that first year.

No on Bowe because Bowe had a perfect aligning of situation those couple of years he had the monster runs. A terrible team that had no other player of use matching up against the historically worst passing defenses (I think there was a stretch there where he literally played against the 30, 29, 28, 30, and 9th pass defense that year and the 9th ranked team was Denver and Champ Bailey sat out that week).
These are my thoughts exactly. I just don't think Stafford is really that good. Just a product of huge workload. MJD wouldn't shock me, but seems like a longshot. Bowe is reliant on a new system and on Alex Smith to do more than short passes. Again, seems like a longshot. Just too many variables.

With Mathews, the offense just can't be worse. Mike McCoy is a good offensive mind. It looks like he'll get 250 carries and goal line duty. If that offense is even mediocre, Mathews will easily be top 15. If he'd torn both ACLs I'd be a lot more worried than breaking both clavicles. Get that man some bigger pads...

Nicks, like Mathews, is almost certain to produce if healthy. They have both been top 10 at their position recently.
Only reason I don't think he'll bounce back is the health factor. Same with Mathews. I probably put way too much emphasis on health.

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
Matthews and Nicks. Both players obviously have been there before and are teams where the ideal philosophy is to use them in ways where they would bounce back. They just need to avoid the buzzard's luck.

No on Stafford because the Lions want to not throw as much so if they are more successful as a team this year, he can't throw like he did in that all-time career yardage year.

No on MJD because the Jags are different now and should have more options in the receiving game and a Lisfranc is a Lisfranc. It's just betting against the house to say a player comes back and is the same old usual in that first year.

No on Bowe because Bowe had a perfect aligning of situation those couple of years he had the monster runs. A terrible team that had no other player of use matching up against the historically worst passing defenses (I think there was a stretch there where he literally played against the 30, 29, 28, 30, and 9th pass defense that year and the 9th ranked team was Denver and Champ Bailey sat out that week).
These are my thoughts exactly. I just don't think Stafford is really that good. Just a product of huge workload. MJD wouldn't shock me, but seems like a longshot. Bowe is reliant on a new system and on Alex Smith to do more than short passes. Again, seems like a longshot. Just too many variables.

With Mathews, the offense just can't be worse. Mike McCoy is a good offensive mind. It looks like he'll get 250 carries and goal line duty. If that offense is even mediocre, Mathews will easily be top 15. If he'd torn both ACLs I'd be a lot more worried than breaking both clavicles. Get that man some bigger pads...

Nicks, like Mathews, is almost certain to produce if healthy. They have both been top 10 at their position recently.
100% agreement on all three.

I think Stafford may very well put up more TD's than last year - reversion to the mean alone almost ensures that. But he's simply not going to put the ball in the air anywhere near 727 times next year, which means his 5,000 yards will come down quite a bit, largely offsetting that. And even by slinging the ball all over the place last season, he still only finished QB10! He may get a spot or two higher this year, but nowhere near enough to justify real value at an ADP of QB9.

And chronic health problems don't dissuade me nearly as much down at the ADPs of a Nicks or Mathews as they do up in the first 2-3 draft rounds. It's generally a crapshoot whether you're going to get any significant VBD out of a typical 6th-round pick anyway. I'd rather take a shot with my WR3 or flex spot on a guy who may not stay healthy but is likely to provide RB1/WR1-level VBD if he does, than one who's going to have to stay healthy all year long just to get me 1ppg above replacement level. After all, if Nicks or Mathews go back down for the year eight games in, it's not like I have to take a zero at that lineup spot the rest of the season.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Miles Austin
I like this one, too, although we're talking about bouncing back to 2009 form. 2010 he played with Kitna. 2011 and 2012 were plagued with hamstring injuries. He's healthy now. I see no reason he won't excel with Bryant distracting coverage. I think Austin is actually a top WR talent. His measurables are better than Bryant and he moves like a RB when he gets the ball. I'm pretty pumped about his value this year. However, he's 29 so if he has a hamstring injury a 3rd year in a row, I'm out of hope. But I read he specifically targeted the hamstrings in the offseason so I am betting on him staying healthy.

I'd also like to add Wallace. The missed preseason combined with a dink and dunk offense resulted in a decent, but still disappointing fantasy season (WR19 before week 16 injury). But Tannehill possess the same traits that made Big Ben a great match for Wallace - a strong arm and ability to keep a play alive. Tannehill may not be as stout as Ben, but he's not small and he's significantly faster. His deep ball accuracy was 7th in the league as a rookie. The only problem is Wallace's dedication. If he quits after getting paid then obviously he'll flop. Otherwise, I think the other factors are all in his favor to break out this year like he did in 2010 and 2011 (WR5 and WR9). His ADP of WR25 was quite a steal, IMO.

Jordy should bounce back somewhat, too. He was WR2 in 2011 and WR5 through 6 weeks in 2012 before he got injured. I don't expect WR2 numbers, but WR12 would not surprise me. I think Finley and the run game will eat up too many TDs for Jordy to approach 15 again, but I could be wrong.

 

One

Not Allowed In Mexico
I want to root for Mathews just because has top 5 potential, but like McFadden, it's up to his body holding out.

 

az_prof

Footballguy
Who's the most likely to bouce back to their 2011 form, in order from most likely to least likely to repeat 2011 success?

1) Matthew Stafford

2) Maurice Jones Drew

3) Hakeem Nicks

4) Ryan Mathews

5) Dwayne Bowe (2010 was more impressive
Of these guys, I am not excited by MJD, who reportedly said HE isn't excited about playing anymore and how hard it was to rehab. That is not good news for a guy of his age coming off a serious injury.

I would be on Bowe. He has an upgrade at QB.

 

Koya

Footballguy
On the list I'd go Stafford. Bowe concerns me because while A Smiths an obvious upgrade, he has historical issues getting the ball to his wide out, ala Crabtree.

While on that subject, A Boldin could see a nice resurgance. Out of opportunity alone plus his solid hands I could see a 75-80 catch 1,100 yard season with 6-8 TD.

While he has a much lower floor, D Williams could have1000-1200 yards with 6-8 tds if indeed Carolina runs a more traditional offense as gas beeb hinted toward. That's 65-80 yards a game. Add a couple passes a game and while I don't expect it , 1200+ total yards is certainly possible. Again, more chance for another dud season but he has ability and this year perhaps the opportunity.

I think Gates could see a good season approaching 1000 yards and 70-80 catches with some upside as potential from 6-10 tds as well.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

rickyg

Footballguy
McFadden

Back to a run scheme that guys his style plus addition of a mobile running qb like Pryor.

 

dmac37

Footballguy
Who's the most likely to bouce back to their 2011 form, in order from most likely to least likely to repeat 2011 success?

1) Matthew Stafford

2) Maurice Jones Drew

3) Hakeem Nicks

4) Ryan Mathews

5) Dwayne Bowe (2010 was more impressive
Of these guys, I am not excited by MJD, who reportedly said HE isn't excited about playing anymore and how hard it was to rehab. That is not good news for a guy of his age coming off a serious injury.

I would be on Bowe. He has an upgrade at QB.
Do you have a link to this? I'm very high on MJD this year but "if" he said this I consider this a big red flag

 

Time Kibitzer

Footballguy
Stafford and MJD are obvious ones, but they still went early in drafts even coming off a bad/injured year. The best bounce back candidate that actually offered real value is DeAngelo Williams. Guy's a gimme for 1000 yards rushing and he could be had in the 6th/7th round of drafts.

 

Craig_MiamiFL

Footballguy
Bounce back from an injury plagued preseason: Coby Fleener.

I can see bounce back from Nicks. But get R.Randle as well.

 

Patroclus

Footballguy
Who's the most likely to bouce back to their 2011 form, in order from most likely to least likely to repeat 2011 success?

1) Matthew Stafford

2) Maurice Jones Drew

3) Hakeem Nicks

4) Ryan Mathews

5) Dwayne Bowe (2010 was more impressive
Would you really call stafford a bounce back? The dude threw for almost 5000 yards in 2012 also. We're just hoping the TDs come back

 

az_prof

Footballguy
dmac37 said:
az_prof said:
Who's the most likely to bouce back to their 2011 form, in order from most likely to least likely to repeat 2011 success?

1) Matthew Stafford

2) Maurice Jones Drew

3) Hakeem Nicks

4) Ryan Mathews

5) Dwayne Bowe (2010 was more impressive
Of these guys, I am not excited by MJD, who reportedly said HE isn't excited about playing anymore and how hard it was to rehab. That is not good news for a guy of his age coming off a serious injury.

I would be on Bowe. He has an upgrade at QB.
Do you have a link to this? I'm very high on MJD this year but "if" he said this I consider this a big red flag
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000238275/article/maurice-jonesdrew-i-lied-to-myself-early-in-jags-camp

"There were a couple days during camp where I was like, 'I don't know if I can do this anymore,'" according to John Oehser of the team's official website. "Once pain subsides and soreness goes away, you're ready to roll again. ... You fought through those first couple weeks."

"You were all saying I felt great," Jones went on, referring to the media. "I had to lie to myself, too, and say that as well. Now I feel good. I'm ready to get out there and play."

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top