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I don't know how many people are in your league, but I can tell you there is no way in ***** your getting Moss and Brady unless you have two first round picks. 4 Drafts so far fewest 12 team(ten team is asinine) and 16 in most. Brady and Moss both long gone before end of the first.
Is it just me or are your RBs team-killing terrible?
My favourite players are AP, MJD, Fitz, Moss, and Rusty Hilger.
I guess that was the point of running this scenario in a mock draft environment. You could say that the RBs are horrible. You could also say that this team could have QB1, WR1, and TE1, and just needs either Beanie or Donald Brown to emerge to be a real factor.Again, in real life, I think I wait on my QB since there's always value to be had in the middle rounds.TWP said:
Yeah but before 07 he didn't have Moss and Welker. The year he did, 50 TD's. I am not thinking he will get 50 this year but it wouldn't shock me if he got in the low 40's. He and the Patriots have something to prove, Moss is determined to get a championship which is keeping him motivated and you know Bellicheck has been planning for Brady's comeback for almost a year.
Exactly. People are overpaying for a once in a lifetime season. How many people drafted Dan Marino early in the 80s/90s, expecting another 48td year.
Actually it's not, although people like to throw that hyperbole around a lot.These #'s are just off the top of my head, so I welcome correction, but he threw for something like 50 TDs, ran 2 more in, and had one called back on a really horrible phantom call.I don't normally complain about calls, but for the purposes of accurate analysis he basically had 53 TDs on the year.Does he really need 50+ again to justify a high pick?What if he 'only' scores 45, which would be a fairly significant decrease of 8 TDs on the year?if a guy went from 28 TDs down to 20, I think people would say that was a huge value hit --- so what if he 'only' comes through with 45, and Moss 'only' manages a meager 18 TDs?I'd be pretty happy with that combo, and that's before you figure in the upside.'99 Rams put up 526 pts, '00 put up 540, and the '01 team 503, I believe, and I'm sure those last 2 years you would've been saying '99 was a fluke that couldn't be repeated.They might not score 590 points this year, but they don't need to, either.What it comes down to is that there are a lot of people who don't follow the Pats who were greatly surprised by '07, and it kind of bothers them that the Pats didn't fall in line with their poorly informed projections, so they continue to bet against them waiting for that day when they can declare, "victory is mine!!", and write off '07 as simply dumb luck on the part of the Pats, rather than poor projecting on their own part.This might be 'fantasy' football, but I'd rather acknowledge reality.
Quick question for you: how many times in history has a QB thrown for more than 40 TD's in a single season?
I can see why they call you "Kool-Aid Larry." I think Brady and Moss are in for a big year. But you just can't justify it the way you did. You can't just give him an extra TD. Every player in the league has TDs called back for one reason or another. It all evens out. Second, you can't compare a guy scoring 53 TDs (your number) and going down to 45 the same way you would a guy going from 28 to 20. You have to use percentages. If you go from 53 to 45, that's about a 15% drop in production. That is like a guy going from 28 to 24. Which is not unreasonable at all.And to say that 45 TDs is not Brady's upside after coming back from major knee surgery is a bit Kool-Aidish too.I was hoping your last line would have a
after it, but it didn't...
I'm gonna go look that up, but while I'm looking you can find me a bit of info:How many QBs have played on Belichick's Pats while throwing to Moss and Welker?
That's easy. Two. Brady and Cassell
Injuries happen. Brady had never missed a game before his freak injury. What if you draft Matt Forte this year and he tears his ACL on the 4th play? Will you never draft an RB in the first round?
While I certainly can't dispute that as a midpoint of your 2 random sets of numbers, how did we determine that it is 'likely'?
Oh, ok -- good enough.
Im picking at the 12 spot and it is likely a top QB will go undrafted however Brees is the guy I would target. Brady is #2.
High risk/High reward. I would be content with 3/4 of Brady`s 2007 numbers.
Thanks for crunching those numbers. I'd take your midpoint numbers and bump them a bit for Brady's 09 projections. The overall offensive talent on the Pats in 09 >>>> 02-06 teams
Not exactly random numbers, but it is my opinion that he falls somewhere around the middle between his career average and his 2007 outlier season.
FWIW I love this team and would take it in a heart beatsmoothkg said:I rolled the dice as well in a 10 team with 6 point per TD. QBs always go fast with my league mates so I went1.7 Brady2.4 Moss3.7 Portis4.4 Bowe5.7 P Thomas6.4 L Johnson7.7 Moreno8.4 Royal.....Not very excited about my running backs.High risk/High reward. I would be content with 3/4 of Brady`s 2007 numbers.
The numbers certainly aren't generated randomly, but their supposed significance most definitely is.You have basically averaged Brady's numbers from a bunch of years where he has various degrees of experience in the league, is surrounded by a different cast, under a different scheme, and throwing to the likes of reche caldwell and doug gabriel, and somehow came to the conclusion that they are in some mysterious and arbitrary way predictive of 2009.Tell me what his average performance is with a similar cast, under a similar scheme, throwing to Moss and Welker, and maybe I'd be a little more interested in your predictions.Frankly, his top 2 receivers have a ton more experience in the system playing with Brady, Galloway at least has the potential to be better than Stallworth, they're deeper at TE, and face a more favorable schedule.In 2007 he scored 53 TDs, with one erased from the books on a random fictional call ---- I don't see any particular reason for a tremendous drop off in 2009 because he only managed to pop in 24 six years ago.I could just as well add his totals from 2003 and 2006, divide by 8 and square the result --- the numbers wouldn't be any more random, and the relevance would be identical.IHEARTFF said:
I was following this thread & highly considered this but I went with Brees. This was a 12 teamer, 6 pt TD pass, .1 per completion, PPR. At 1.11 I was surprised to be grabbing 1st QB as I ALWAYS am last to pick QB. I took Moss over AJ at the turn although kinda wish I reversed as Welker was there at 3.11. I took Bowe instead due to value. Drafted a bunch of RBs and hope a couple pan out - Kevin Smith, Lynch, D Ward, FWP, F Taylor & Hillis. Also was able to get Ocho since people had loaded on RBs and I knew I could out with lesser options at RB.bushisdaman said:
How many people drafted Larry Johnson with their early 2nd round pick, last year, expecting at least a10 td year? I know I did. It really can;t get any worse than that...28 tds would be sort of meh, but it cetainly would not be bombing out...I can tell you with pretty good certainty that at least 1/2 of the first round picks will be dissapointments in some way, they always are.
McDaniels was along for the ride and got promoted through the Pats coaching ranks. He started as a Personnel Assistant, then served as a Defensive Coaching Assistant, then Quarterbacks Coach, and finally Offensive Coordinator. Certainly you can't knock him for what happened in 2007, but I'm not sure he was the brain trust that created the monster known as the Patriots offense. He may have done a solid job calling plays when given the chance, but I don't think he did much to build the playbook.This year, there is no official OC, and BB is the one that will be calling the plays (if he wasn't already). I forget who it is, but he has another assistant that is working on play calling with him, but he does not have the OC title.
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Brady, Tom NEP QB 2.02McNabb, Donovan 8.02 Portis, Clinton WAS RB 4.02Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 5.09Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB 6.02Addai, Joseph IND RB 7.09Benson, Cedric CIN RB 9.09Taylor, Fred NEP RB 14.02 Moss, Randy NEP WR 2.02White, Roddy ATL WR 3.09Henry, Chris CIN WR 10.02Avery, Donnie STL WR 12.02Curtis, Kevin PHI WRBironias, Rob TEN K Miller, Zach OAK TE 11.02 Chicago Bears DST 13.10
I know this is a Moss Brady thread, but I think you might have gotten some steals at RB. Not sure if PT might have been available later, but if you like a guy, go get him!
You don't say.
I was in the 7th slot of my one league where QB's get 6 TD's per TD and I went Brady and then got Moss. Fitz and wyane went before moss..... Some peps still hate Moss since he left MN! :RFLOL:
