brady has the toughest passing schedule this year (1 Viewer)

[flc735]

brees, stafford and rodgers all have fairly easy passing schedules. brady has the toughest in the league. he had an average passing schedule last season.

this is based on last years results. i used the adjusted stats from football outsiders which accounts for opponent strength to be a tad more accurate. of course things change, take houston for example. but there is some predictability here. by years end, NE may not finish with the toughest schedule, but they definitely will be in the bottom 10.

i wouldn't expect brady to finish below 3rd, but for those that have him ranked ahead of rodgers and/or brees, does this concern you at all?

to make things worse, brady plays hou, sf, and jax in the playoff weeks.

 

[flc735]

btw, here is my full list. i did this a while ago. i think i put double weight on the playoff weeks and made a few common sense adjustments based on defensive FA signings.

1 ATL 20.82 NO 20.53 TB 19.64 STL 19.35 CHI 19.16 HOU 18.97 CAR 18.28 SF 18.29 JAX 17.710 SEA 17.611 KC 17.612 DET 17.313 PHI 17.014 DEN 16.815 GB 16.316 NYJ 16.117 OAK 16.018 TEN 15.919 BAL 15.420 NYG 15.321 ARI 15.022 DAL 14.923 CLE 14.824 PIT 14.825 WAS 14.726 MIA 14.427 MIN 14.428 BUF 14.429 IND 14.230 SD 14.131 CIN 13.232 NE 11.7
and while im at it, here are the rushing rankings. kc at #1 has the easiest rushing schedule

1	KC	22.62	ATL	21.23	DEN	20.34	TB	19.55	OAK	18.26	NO	17.87	SD	17.68	SF	17.39	BAL	17.310	PHI	16.911	NYJ	16.812	CAR	16.813	CLE	16.814	STL	16.515	WAS	16.416	MIA	16.217	HOU	15.918	JAX	15.819	CIN	15.820	CHI	15.621	DAL	15.522	BUF	15.523	GB	15.324	IND	15.325	MIN	15.226	PIT	15.127	ARI	14.728	SEA	14.629	TEN	14.630	DET	14.031	NYG	12.632	NE	12.2

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I only moderately consider these things since whenever I have adjusted my players in the past due to schedule I've regretted it. Also, I think the Patriots are never a team to be discounted due to their coach and personell.

 

[gebz306]

Matters to me. I wont be drafting Brady in auction

 

[12punch]

no

so far, I have heard the pats have the easiest and the hardest schedule.

 

[flc735]

I only moderately consider these things since whenever I have adjusted my players in the past due to schedule I've regretted it. Also, I think the Patriots are never a team to be discounted due to their coach and personell.

right, this is only one of the many factors to consider. if NE was 20th, i wouldn't care too much but they are dead last. not only that, but they are 1.5 'teams' behind cincy at #31ps: in these charts, '17' means they their average opponent throughout the season is the 17th best passing defensepps: here's another reason to bump matt ryan

 

[JHuber77]

Easiest team schedule in the league, hardest passing schedule. It basically means nothing

 

[flc735]

noso far, I have heard the pats have the easiest and the hardest schedule.

here i specifically ranked passing defenses and completely ignored everything else. the jets are an easy opponent in terms of win v loss but a very tough opponent as far as passing stats go. that's the difference between this and what espn told you.

 

[Run It Up]

I only moderately consider these things since whenever I have adjusted my players in the past due to schedule I've regretted it. Also, I think the Patriots are never a team to be discounted due to their coach and personell.

right, this is only one of the many factors to consider. if NE was 20th, i wouldn't care too much but they are dead last. not only that, but they are 1.5 'teams' behind cincy at #31ps: in these charts, '17' means they their average opponent throughout the season is the 17th best passing defensepps: here's another reason to bump matt ryan

Do you have a chart that excludes the Dolphins, Bills and Jets?Curious about the 10 defenses that I dont know for sure yet are over rated.

 

[David Yudkin]

All these types of concerns have been addressed in several other threads . . .

For starters, I am not sure where people are getting that the 20102 Pats schedule is so terrible against the pass. Here were the defensive passing ratings they will face in 2012 . . .

We have no idea how defenses will be in 2012 compared to 2011 . . .

HOU 3

BAL 4

NYJ 5

NYJ 5

STL 7

JAC 8

SEA 11

TEN 14

IND 15

SFO 16

ARI 17

DEN 18

BUF 19

BUF 19

MIA 25

MIA 25

Since 2007, Brady has faced Top 10 pass defenses 29 times. He had 300+ passing yards in 10 of them, 3+ TD in 11 of them, and averaged 2.25 TD a game. In 2009 he faced 8 Top 10 defenses. In 2010 he faced 9 Top 10 defenses. It's not like Brady has gone up against chopped liver or has turned into Tim Tebow throwing the ball against decent defenses.

I would not look at the schedule as a reason not to draft Tom Brady.

 

[12punch]

noso far, I have heard the pats have the easiest and the hardest schedule.

here i specifically ranked passing defenses and completely ignored everything else. the jets are an easy opponent in terms of win v loss but a very tough opponent as far as passing stats go. that's the difference between this and what espn told you.

here's what espn told me he did vs the jets last year before they added 2 safeties who can't cover, and the pats added lloyd:321/1 qbr = 100329/3 qbr = 118

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I only moderately consider these things since whenever I have adjusted my players in the past due to schedule I've regretted it. Also, I think the Patriots are never a team to be discounted due to their coach and personell.

right, this is only one of the many factors to consider. if NE was 20th, i wouldn't care too much but they are dead last. not only that, but they are 1.5 'teams' behind cincy at #31ps: in these charts, '17' means they their average opponent throughout the season is the 17th best passing defensepps: here's another reason to bump matt ryan

I believe crossing elite players off the list due to their opponents last years permormance is a bad move. Historically it never holds water due to injuries, progression and week to week NFL abnormalities. Also, BB is a master at exploiting matchups and finding wrinkles. NE is a bad choice of selling.

 

[Chase Stuart]

All these types of concerns have been addressed in several other threads . . .For starters, I am not sure where people are getting that the 20102 Pats schedule is so terrible against the pass. Here were the defensive passing ratings they will face in 2012 . . .We have no idea how defenses will be in 2012 compared to 2011 . . . HOU 3 BAL 4 NYJ 5 NYJ 5 STL 7 JAC 8 SEA 11 TEN 14 IND 15 SFO 16 ARI 17 DEN 18 BUF 19 BUF 19 MIA 25 MIA 25 Since 2007, Brady has faced Top 10 pass defenses 29 times. He had 300+ passing yards in 10 of them, 3+ TD in 11 of them, and averaged 2.25 TD a game. In 2009 he faced 8 Top 10 defenses. In 2010 he faced 9 Top 10 defenses. It's not like Brady has gone up against chopped liver or has turned into Tim Tebow throwing the ball against decent defenses. I would not look at the schedule as a reason not to draft Tom Brady.

A hard schedule + question marks on the offensive line are reasons to at least consider that the 5300 yard season a lot of people are projecting for him may not happen. A very difficult fantasy schedule is worth about 2 FP/G relative to average, so if Brady drops 2 FP/G that's not nothing. Now we don't know that his schedule will be that difficult, but I think it's reasonable to conclude that you could give his numbers a small haircut.

 

[flc735]

I only moderately consider these things since whenever I have adjusted my players in the past due to schedule I've regretted it. Also, I think the Patriots are never a team to be discounted due to their coach and personell.

right, this is only one of the many factors to consider. if NE was 20th, i wouldn't care too much but they are dead last. not only that, but they are 1.5 'teams' behind cincy at #31ps: in these charts, '17' means they their average opponent throughout the season is the 17th best passing defensepps: here's another reason to bump matt ryan

Do you have a chart that excludes the Dolphins, Bills and Jets?Curious about the 10 defenses that I dont know for sure yet are over rated.

i didnt bother with specifics because the more specific you get, the more likely you are to be off. the best i did was break the seasons into halfs and 3rds.passing

pass	1-4 wk	5-8 wk	9-13wk	1-7wk	8-13 wk	14-16 wk	weighted1	ATL	19.8	15.5	23.6	19.2	21.4	21.5	20.82	NO	19.4	22.8	14.9	20.8	15.9	23.8	20.53	TB	21.6	22.2	21.3	20.7	22.6	16.5	19.64	STL	13.5	22.8	10.8	16.5	14.5	25.5	19.35	CHI	20.1	15.3	14.6	16.7	16.6	24.0	19.16	HOU	15.8	11.2	15.1	13.8	15.1	26.5	18.97	CAR	23.4	16.0	16.1	20.8	16.3	19.7	18.28	SF	18.3	18.1	16.8	18.6	16.5	19.3	18.29	JAX	17.1	22.2	15.6	17.9	17.6	17.2	17.710	SEA	18.8	20.3	17.0	20.4	16.2	16.5	17.611	KC	21.8	16.7	17.0	19.2	17.8	17.5	17.612	DET	17.3	12.5	17.8	16.1	16.5	19.3	17.313	PHI	13.1	10.0	22.1	11.3	20.9	17.7	17.014	DEN	11.0	26.5	19.4	15.9	20.8	11.3	16.815	GB	16.8	10.9	20.6	14.9	17.8	15.7	16.316	NYJ	13.6	18.5	16.5	15.7	16.9	15.2	16.117	OAK	15.9	10.3	15.8	14.2	14.8	19.0	16.018	TEN	17.4	18.5	11.8	17.5	13.6	17.3	15.919	BAL	15.8	11.8	11.5	14.1	11.5	20.0	15.420	NYG	20.9	14.1	14.3	17.0	15.6	15.2	15.321	ARI	17.1	18.5	14.3	18.6	13.8	13.3	15.022	DAL	19.4	18.0	11.9	17.8	14.1	14.5	14.923	CLE	12.1	20.4	11.9	15.4	13.9	14.8	14.824	PIT	15.5	13.8	9.8	14.6	10.5	18.8	14.825	WAS	19.5	17.8	20.8	21.0	17.0	7.5	14.726	MIA	11.5	9.3	19.9	11.8	17.2	13.5	14.427	MIN	13.1	18.0	16.9	14.1	18.6	11.0	14.428	BUF	13.0	14.8	16.1	13.8	16.1	13.2	14.429	IND	17.5	14.4	17.9	15.5	17.8	10.5	14.230	SD	15.9	19.5	14.4	18.8	13.6	10.7	14.131	CIN	8.1	10.0	19.9	8.9	19.9	11.2	13.232	NE	14.3	11.4	16.3	13.1	15.2	7.8	11.7

rushing

run	1-4 wk	5-8 wk	9-13wk	1-7wk	8-13 wk	14-16 wk	weighted1	KC	17.4	21.5	18.3	17.5	20.1	27.7	22.62	ATL	22.1	20.7	18.7	22.3	18.4	23.0	21.23	DEN	12.5	20.0	23.0	15.6	21.9	20.3	20.34	TB	17.8	16.0	20.1	18.2	18.4	21.2	19.55	OAK	14.4	11.0	18.5	11.5	19.0	22.5	18.26	NO	21.5	23.2	11.2	23.0	12.3	19.2	17.87	SD	18.0	20.5	17.5	17.7	19.2	16.2	17.68	SF	15.0	20.4	20.0	17.1	20.4	14.3	17.39	BAL	20.0	11.3	20.1	16.3	20.1	17.5	17.310	PHI	18.3	12.5	15.2	17.7	13.4	20.0	16.911	NYJ	11.9	15.4	21.9	14.5	19.0	15.0	16.812	CAR	17.8	8.0	20.6	15.3	17.8	18.2	16.813	CLE	15.5	19.9	13.1	17.2	14.7	18.3	16.814	STL	13.5	18.0	8.1	14.8	11.0	22.8	16.515	WAS	22.6	11.3	18.0	17.7	16.7	16.3	16.416	MIA	16.1	17.2	21.3	17.9	19.2	11.8	16.217	HOU	12.3	11.0	15.3	11.7	15.3	19.7	15.918	JAX	13.6	17.5	19.5	14.5	19.6	12.8	15.819	CIN	13.8	15.5	21.6	14.5	21.6	12.0	15.820	CHI	21.0	19.0	9.2	18.8	12.4	17.3	15.621	DAL	16.6	17.3	16.4	16.6	16.8	13.7	15.522	BUF	20.0	13.3	13.7	17.1	13.7	16.8	15.523	GB	8.5	17.1	18.1	13.6	15.9	14.0	15.324	IND	6.8	18.3	17.2	12.8	17.2	14.5	15.325	MIN	14.0	21.5	14.5	15.9	17.8	12.8	15.226	PIT	18.3	15.8	15.4	17.0	15.5	13.8	15.127	ARI	15.0	17.1	15.8	18.2	12.8	12.7	14.728	SEA	19.9	18.4	7.4	18.8	10.2	16.8	14.629	TEN	17.5	18.9	5.8	17.0	9.9	18.3	14.630	DET	14.5	11.2	13.7	13.1	13.6	15.5	14.031	NYG	21.0	13.0	15.1	18.4	13.6	8.5	12.632	NE	17.8	17.3	17.5	15.7	20.0	4.3	12.2

I HAVE MOAR! TE specific

TE	1-4 wk	5-8 wk	9-13wk	1-7wk	8-13 wk	14-16 wk	weightedARI	19.8	19.3	19.0	18.4	20.6	24.0	21.1MIN	19.0	10.3	19.8	14.0	19.6	25.3	20.0WAS	20.3	22.8	15.8	20.4	18.4	21.3	19.8CAR	22.0	19.7	17.8	20.3	19.0	20.7	19.7CIN	13.0	19.7	17.2	15.9	17.2	23.3	19.7DAL	22.0	16.0	21.0	19.2	21.0	20.0	19.7NO	7.8	12.7	29.8	8.7	27.7	17.0	19.0TB	9.5	14.3	16.0	12.0	14.8	25.7	18.9SF	11.5	17.0	25.8	14.3	23.4	16.3	18.8BUF	9.0	14.7	14.2	11.4	14.2	25.3	18.2NYG	15.3	12.8	14.0	14.4	13.4	24.7	18.1GB	22.8	19.0	17.0	22.0	16.2	17.3	18.1DET	17.5	26.0	12.2	20.8	14.0	17.7	17.7NE	13.3	19.3	12.5	14.1	16.2	20.0	16.9CLE	20.3	12.5	23.5	18.4	19.2	13.3	16.9KC	15.0	24.3	12.8	17.5	15.3	16.0	16.6BAL	14.3	16.3	19.2	15.1	19.2	14.3	16.2ATL	9.5	21.0	15.2	11.8	17.7	15.3	15.8SEA	15.8	14.0	15.5	13.6	17.2	17.0	15.8OAK	17.5	21.0	16.8	19.2	17.0	12.0	15.8DEN	27.3	7.3	11.0	19.2	11.8	20.7	15.8SD	20.3	13.7	19.0	19.0	17.2	12.0	15.3PHI	17.3	28.3	8.8	20.3	12.7	13.0	15.2MIA	17.0	17.3	10.4	19.0	9.7	16.7	15.0STL	19.3	11.8	18.5	17.1	15.6	12.7	14.9PIT	17.0	13.3	19.8	16.5	17.3	9.3	14.0JAX	14.0	20.0	13.8	18.2	12.7	10.7	13.8TEN	12.5	15.0	20.0	14.0	18.4	8.3	13.6CHI	15.3	12.7	16.4	16.3	13.8	10.0	13.0NYJ	22.0	14.5	18.0	17.7	18.8	6.0	12.9IND	15.7	6.0	14.6	11.3	12.7	13.7	12.6HOU	13.8	13.0	15.0	13.4	15.0	8.3	11.8

 

[AngryPatriot]

Didn't Brady throw like 5 tds in one half against CHI (in Chi) in a blizzard a couple years ago? I remember Mike Mayock picking the Bears handily in that one. Mayock is off quite a bit. Instead of looking at all the #'s which is bad for the eyes, just stare at a picture of Tom, you'll get it!

 

[flc735]

All these types of concerns have been addressed in several other threads . . .For starters, I am not sure where people are getting that the 20102 Pats schedule is so terrible against the pass. Here were the defensive passing ratings they will face in 2012 . . .We have no idea how defenses will be in 2012 compared to 2011 . . . HOU 3 BAL 4 NYJ 5 NYJ 5 STL 7 JAC 8 SEA 11 TEN 14 IND 15 SFO 16 ARI 17 DEN 18 BUF 19 BUF 19 MIA 25 MIA 25 Since 2007, Brady has faced Top 10 pass defenses 29 times. He had 300+ passing yards in 10 of them, 3+ TD in 11 of them, and averaged 2.25 TD a game. In 2009 he faced 8 Top 10 defenses. In 2010 he faced 9 Top 10 defenses. It's not like Brady has gone up against chopped liver or has turned into Tim Tebow throwing the ball against decent defenses. I would not look at the schedule as a reason not to draft Tom Brady.

yes we have an idea. we know the jets will have a good pass defense. we know hou will as well and so on... these rankings average out to 13.8, which is significant. 13.8 is one of the toughest in the league this year. i took is a few steps further and adjusted for opponents strength. mia played NE twice, thats going to know their average down. hou played indy twice, which will inflate it a bit. so you get a more accurate result this way. its not perfect, but its better than just looking at yards given up.i adjusted for all this and the result was even worse for new england. i LOVE brady's weapons and thats why im so conflicted

 

[12punch]

brees, stafford and rodgers all have fairly easy passing schedules. brady has the toughest in the league. he had an average passing schedule last season.

this is based on last years results. i used the adjusted stats from football outsiders which accounts for opponent strength to be a tad more accurate. of course things change, take houston for example. but there is some predictability here. by years end, NE may not finish with the toughest schedule, but they definitely will be in the bottom 10.

i wouldn't expect brady to finish below 3rd, but for those that have him ranked ahead of rodgers and/or brees, does this concern you at all?

to make things worse, brady plays hou, sf, and jax in the playoff weeks.

how would you feel about, let's say.....drew brees at sfo?

 

[flc735]

I only moderately consider these things since whenever I have adjusted my players in the past due to schedule I've regretted it. Also, I think the Patriots are never a team to be discounted due to their coach and personell.

right, this is only one of the many factors to consider. if NE was 20th, i wouldn't care too much but they are dead last. not only that, but they are 1.5 'teams' behind cincy at #31ps: in these charts, '17' means they their average opponent throughout the season is the 17th best passing defensepps: here's another reason to bump matt ryan

I believe crossing elite players off the list due to their opponents last years permormance is a bad move. Historically it never holds water due to injuries, progression and week to week NFL abnormalities. Also, BB is a master at exploiting matchups and finding wrinkles. NE is a bad choice of selling.

i wouldn't avoid brady. i just might rank him 3rd rather than 1 or 2 based on this. no lower then that. i can't make up my mind though i am leaning towards the 3rd rank

 

[12punch]

Didn't Brady throw like 5 tds in one half against CHI (in Chi) in a blizzard a couple years ago? I remember Mike Mayock picking the Bears handily in that one. Mayock is off quite a bit. Instead of looking at all the #'s which is bad for the eyes, just stare at a picture of Tom, you'll get it!

good idea --- here you go

 

[flc735]

brees, stafford and rodgers all have fairly easy passing schedules. brady has the toughest in the league. he had an average passing schedule last season.

this is based on last years results. i used the adjusted stats from football outsiders which accounts for opponent strength to be a tad more accurate. of course things change, take houston for example. but there is some predictability here. by years end, NE may not finish with the toughest schedule, but they definitely will be in the bottom 10.

i wouldn't expect brady to finish below 3rd, but for those that have him ranked ahead of rodgers and/or brees, does this concern you at all?

to make things worse, brady plays hou, sf, and jax in the playoff weeks.

how would you feel about, let's say.....drew brees at sfo?

the playoff game? do you think every time a good qb plays SF they will have a monster game? i dont. i wouldn't be excited to see my qb play a top defense like that. are you saying that the opponent is irrelevant?

 

[David Yudkin]

question marks on the offensive line

Do the Pats have more OL questions than any other team? Mankins and Koppen are already back in camp and Vollmer will start practicing this week. The only one not there is Waters, who seemingly looks like the vet that doesn't want to have to go through the rigors of another training camp (IIRC, he didn't show up until 9/4 last season). We don't know who will be in the Opening Day line up, but at this point the expectation is that the entire Pats OL should be available. Certainly that could change, but at this point the team is moving forward that everyone will be suited up and available Week One.As for you overall point, common sense would indicate that expecting back to back 5300 yard season would be asking a lot, but another run at 5,000 may be in the cards. The one thing Brady seems to have done against better defenses is have fewer passing yardage but still a ton of TDs.

 

[12punch]

brees, stafford and rodgers all have fairly easy passing schedules. brady has the toughest in the league. he had an average passing schedule last season.

this is based on last years results. i used the adjusted stats from football outsiders which accounts for opponent strength to be a tad more accurate. of course things change, take houston for example. but there is some predictability here. by years end, NE may not finish with the toughest schedule, but they definitely will be in the bottom 10.

i wouldn't expect brady to finish below 3rd, but for those that have him ranked ahead of rodgers and/or brees, does this concern you at all?

to make things worse, brady plays hou, sf, and jax in the playoff weeks.

how would you feel about, let's say.....drew brees at sfo?

the playoff game? do you think every time a good qb plays SF they will have a monster game? i dont. i wouldn't be excited to see my qb play a top defense like that.

yeah, but if you sat him look what you would've given up based on this.you singled out nyj as a particularly tough one, and it is pretty tough, but brady did pretty well against them last year -- not 4 td/game, but not terrible.

when you cook up these ratings, and I really just skimmed them, do you account for the qb's that faced these defenses?

I don't actually disagree that it's tough --- I think it probably is, but I also have to question how reliable this line of reasoning is.

I guess if you were just trying to decide between the big 3 I couldn't fault it.

you'd think buf and stl would be better than last year, anyway.

 

[David Yudkin]

The other thing that may make a difference is that the Pats play HOU and SF at home. IMO, that will help Brady's numbers compared to what they might be if they were on the road in those games.

 

[12punch]

vs sfo

romo = 345/2

e manning = 316/2, 311/2

stafford = 293/2

vick = 416/2

to reiterate my answer to your question -- no.

 

[flc735]

brees, stafford and rodgers all have fairly easy passing schedules. brady has the toughest in the league. he had an average passing schedule last season.

this is based on last years results. i used the adjusted stats from football outsiders which accounts for opponent strength to be a tad more accurate. of course things change, take houston for example. but there is some predictability here. by years end, NE may not finish with the toughest schedule, but they definitely will be in the bottom 10.

i wouldn't expect brady to finish below 3rd, but for those that have him ranked ahead of rodgers and/or brees, does this concern you at all?

to make things worse, brady plays hou, sf, and jax in the playoff weeks.

how would you feel about, let's say.....drew brees at sfo?

the playoff game? do you think every time a good qb plays SF they will have a monster game? i dont. i wouldn't be excited to see my qb play a top defense like that.

when you cook up these ratings, and I really just skimmed them, do you account for the qb's that faced these defenses?I don't actually disagree that it's tough --- I think it probably is, but I also have to question how reliable this line of reasoning is.

I guess if you were just trying to decide between the big 3 I couldn't fault it.

you'd think buf and stl would be better than last year, anyway.

yes, the stats i used were adjusted for the teams they faced. the pass rank column is the important part here. if i knew more about idp, i would have done some tweaking myself. i did change a few slightly. dallas for those 2 cb's they brought in and stl since they were on their 7th CB due to injuries from last year. i think a few others but not sure. i tried to be as accurate as possible here and account for everything that my brain allowed me to. there are factors that i can't predict, but these are more accurate than simply looking at total passing yards given up from last year.mia is 13th after you adjust for the opponents they played last year. buf is bad either way, i think they did well on D because of turnovers rather than defending against yards.

 

[flc735]

The other thing that may make a difference is that the Pats play HOU and SF at home. IMO, that will help Brady's numbers compared to what they might be if they were on the road in those games.

thats a good points and makes me feel a little better about him. i didn't take home and away games into account here.

 

[David Yudkin]

vs sforomo = 345/2 e manning = 316/2, 311/2stafford = 293/2vick = 416/2to reiterate my answer to your question -- no.

i don't understand. are you saying that we should ignore matchups? your not going to get every mathchup correct, but pretending they don't matter at all is ridiculous.

IMO, sometimes the reason teams rank well in certain areas are misleading. For example, teams that face the likes of GB / DET / NO will rank worse because they had to face those teams. Other teams may be so poor against the run that teams did not need to pass very often. Or they were so bad at turning the ball over that opponents could run time off the clock early in the 4th quarter.As far as entire fantasy season goes, even "tough" strength of schedules should still have a bunch of favorable match ups.In the Pats case, I suspect there are other reasons to expect them to be more successful than the average bear. Their defense is still suspect, as is their running game. There's also the McDaniels factor. The Pats should have to pass a lot to make up for the defense and the so so running game.

 

[DiStefano]

Strength of schedule is usually worth a warm bucket of spit.

Here were the top five passing defenses in 2011:

PIT

CLE

HOU

BAL

NYJ

Great. Now we know who will be tough in 2012. Only...

Here were the top passing defenses in 2010:

SDO

OAK

BUF

NOS

GBP

Ooops.

 

[12punch]

you really don't understand?

you asked if I was worried about brady playing sfo, so I looked at the top 6 qb games sfo faced, and based on those results I'm not worried about it.

I wasn't worried about it before, though, but it doesn't hurt to look into it.

 

[flc735]

you really don't understand?you asked if I was worried about brady playing sfo, so I looked at the top 6 qb games sfo faced, and based on those results I'm not worried about it.I wasn't worried about it before, though, but it doesn't hurt to look into it.

i understand. i tried to delete that before you saw it

 

[12punch]

haha....too slow!!

was wondering why I couldn't quote that post.

 

[flc735]

Strength of schedule is usually worth a warm bucket of spit.Here were the top five passing defenses in 2011ITCLEHOUBALNYJGreat. Now we know who will be tough in 2012. Only...Here were the top passing defenses in 2010:SDOOAKBUFNOSGBPOoops.

right. odd are houston won't be a top 5 defense again. but odds are houston will be a better defense than arizona. odds are hou+jax+sf will be a tougher playoff schedule than atlanta playing car+nyg+det. it's tough to predict specifics but its easier to predict things on a larger scale. the more games you take into account, the more likely it is that the random defenses that over preform will tend to cancel out the random defenses that under preform and vice versa. ex: its tough to say how many yards calvin will get in week 1. he could get anywhere from 20 to 200. no matter what number you pick, chances are your going to be off by alot. but, it's easy to predict how many yards calvin will get over the entire season. if you guess 1400, there is a pretty good chance you will be close to the actual number.

 

[12punch]

and I think jax plays better d than they might get credit for, being perceived as a chump team, so I wouldn't take them lightly, but with a team like that brady should benefit just from the turnovers and stalled drives they get off gabbert.

that chumpy o will give him more opportunity, I think, and the pats don't always run the ball in the 4th q if they're up big.

houston has an excellent d, but if I had sat brees against them I'd have missed out on 370/3.

one thing I'd add, and I'd probably be better off going through the games and vetting this a little, but my impression is that the pats get tougher games against teams that are familiar with them, and tend to feast on teams that haven't seen them, so that jax/hou/sfo stretch concerns me even less.

 

[12punch]

right. odd are houston won't be a top 5 defense again. but odds are houston will be a better defense than arizona. odds are hou+jax+sf will be a tougher playoff schedule than atlanta playing car+nyg+det. it's tough to predict specifics but its easier to predict things on a larger scale. the more games you take into account, the more likely it is that the random defenses that over preform will tend to cancel out the random defenses that under preform and vice versa.

your gneral approach is probably somewhat true, but I think this post is further example of why I tend to be a little skeptical.how'd atl do against that nyg d in the playoffs last year?

I just mentioned the big brees game vs hou in an earlier post -- 370/3, I think?

here's how qb's fared against that crummy ari pass d in the second half of the season, once they got their house in order.

bradford - 255/0, 203/1

a smith - 267/2, 175/0

vick - 128/0

romo - 299/1

dalton - 154/2

that's not terrible, and I'm assuming ari was the comparison team you picked because you feel they're terrible.

 

[SYMPHONY X]

I am looking to grab Brady in every league possible, not worried about the S.O.S. I see it like this: have you seen that Rhonda Rousey MMA chick fight on Strikeforce on Showtime? I compare the Pats passing offense to her this year. Rousey is 6-0, the champ, and has won all six of her bouts by arm-bar submission in the first round. The chick she just fought last night, 15-1 and the former champ, trained for countless hours to defend against that damn arm-bar, and was determined not to be beat by it. Well, guess what..she was tapped out in less than a minute via arm-bar.

The Patriots passing offense is going to be arm-barring some fools this season, Rousey style. The defense may be tough against the pass, and know the pass is coming, doing all they can to defend against it. But how in the hell are they going to stop it? Lloyd deep, Welker and Hernandez underneath, Gronk a huge mismatch for anyone down the middle...I see some 1st rd submissions coming via the Pats passing game, and some huge fantasy points for Mr. Brady and company!

 

[bocksheesh]

I'd be a lot more worried about an improved Patriots Defense than I would about Brady facing tough pass defenses.

Brady and the Pats offense can score on virtually any defense (save the NYG) at will.

However, they scored as much as they did last season in part because their defense was lousy. That defense is supposed to have improved considerably.

Better Defense leads to closer games and fewer shoot outs.

 

[flc735]

that's not terrible, and I'm assuming ari was the comparison team you picked because you feel they're terrible.

arz was just a random team. they have a decent D

 

[flc735]

I am looking to grab Brady in every league possible, not worried about the S.O.S. I see it like this: have you seen that Rhonda Rousey MMA chick fight on Strikeforce on Showtime? I compare the Pats passing offense to her this year. Rousey is 6-0, the champ, and has won all six of her bouts by arm-bar submission in the first round. The chick she just fought last night, 15-1 and the former champ, trained for countless hours to defend against that damn arm-bar, and was determined not to be beat by it. Well, guess what..she was tapped out in less than a minute via arm-bar.The Patriots passing offense is going to be arm-barring some fools this season, Rousey style. The defense may be tough against the pass, and know the pass is coming, doing all they can to defend against it. But how in the hell are they going to stop it? Lloyd deep, Welker and Hernandez underneath, Gronk a huge mismatch for anyone down the middle...I see some 1st rd submissions coming via the Pats passing game, and some huge fantasy points for Mr. Brady and company!

thats true. no defense can stop all of those guys. im starting to come around again on brady. now im thinking lloyd, gronk and hernandez will be wildly inconsistent. those strong Ds can take away 1 or 2 of the four and that will likely mean a 30 point game for lloyd and a 3 point game from gronk, followed by a 3 point game for lloyd and 30 points for gronk and so forth.playing weak Ds means brady can spread the ball around more. playing strong Ds means brady will have to heavily target who ever the defense is not focusing on in thier general gameplan.

 

[Da Man]

You will witness "Shock and Awe" part 2 this year. There will not be a defense in the league that will slow down the Pats this year...Bank on It.

Brady will be the #1 QB...hands down!!

 

[ponchsox]

brees, stafford and rodgers all have fairly easy passing schedules. brady has the toughest in the league. he had an average passing schedule last season.this is based on last years results. i used the adjusted stats from football outsiders which accounts for opponent strength to be a tad more accurate. of course things change, take houston for example. but there is some predictability here. by years end, NE may not finish with the toughest schedule, but they definitely will be in the bottom 10.i wouldn't expect brady to finish below 3rd, but for those that have him ranked ahead of rodgers and/or brees, does this concern you at all?to make things worse, brady plays hou, sf, and jax in the playoff weeks.

No, even a good pass defense will have a hard time covering all of the Patriots weapons. They have to win the battle at the line and put pressure on Brady if they want to slow him down. Teams still haven't figured out how to stop Gronkowski. They can't focus on one or two receivers as the other two will be open.

 

[Tanner9919]

I'm more worried about Brady vs. teams that can get after the QB, such as SF, Balt, Houston , and now Buffalo, etc..

he'll get his numbers, sure, but I'd be more worried about him taking a bunch of sacks against these defenses..he's no spring chicken, he's 35 and immobile (in QB terms, anyways)..

he was hit some 69 times last year, sacked 32 times ( highest sack count of his career)..

and for me, it's not just the tough defensive fronts that he'll face, but also the age factor with relation to his throwing arm..he had shoulder problems all last season..some NFL insiders have said that they think he's lost his fastball, ala Peyton, who just last week admitted that he feels he's lost some zip to his passes after years and years of throwing the ball..it has to happen at some point, right? I mean, Brady has to slip sometime..he's 35..I think it begins to show this year..and with the seemingly tougher passing schedule, I just have my doubts about a 5k season from Brady ever happening again..

it wouldn't shock me to see 4100/32..that's just my opinion..more of a gut feeling..I don't get the warm and fuzzy feeling about the Pats this season..they'll have a (much) lesser running game..will that allow defenses to tee-off on Brady and blitz him all the time?

 

[Shutout]

Picking future on past performance in the NFL proves to be futile at best, over and over again.

In short, this thread can be summed up by saying NBYS.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think is a case where the stats "lie".

Alot of those team, Jax,Indy, Ariz et.all are just bad teams, they fell behind alot, and probably had the ball ran down their throats, hence their actual defensive ranking vs the pass is decent because there was no need to pass.

I see that Pats schedule as nothing but a positive for Tom Bradys fantasy production. If they get up on a team, they keep throwing, and throwing

BUY!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Name the teams with secondaries and a pass rush the Patriots should be fearful of on their schedule. Please name the teams that are tough outside of Baltimore and San Fran.

 

[12punch]

I think the counterpoint would be that while brady can handle a lot of teams, maybe his counterparts have particularly juicy match ups, which MIGHT be fair, but the first example you came up with is ryan vs nyg.

I'd take brady over that

 

[12punch]

Name the teams with secondaries and a pass rush the Patriots should be fearful of on their schedule. Please name the teams that are tough outside of Baltimore and San Fran.

Let's not get crazy about it - i drink as much pats kool aid as qnybody here, but it's not like they're playing high school teams.

 

[LHUCKS]

Several reasons that Brady may be overvalued this year,most of which have been mentioned in this thread.

I have him behind Stafford.

 

[Shutout]

Several reasons that Brady may be overvalued this year,most of which have been mentioned in this thread. I have him behind Stafford.

Several reasons why it is all irrelevant has also been mentioned too, however. Teams change a lot from yer to year. Its COMMON that people predict finishes for teams based on last year and they come out completely different. I really think going by last year's number are the wrong set of data to look at.Instead, why not look at what is known and always true:-Brady is a top QB in the league.-The Patriots are one of the few teams that don't take their foot off a team's throat when they get a lead.-As Dave mentioned above, Brady is very proven when playing against top NFL passing defenses. Overall, even with the numbers, its relative at best. I mean, saying the Patriots play against a team ranked #7 only means that, among the spectrum of NFL teams, this was the #7 team. But it does NOT mean they can stop the Patriots. I might be the #3 fastest guy on a track team but if I'm running a 4.7 40-time that would only really mean we have a very slow track team. The history shows, that beyond the numbers, Brady is always very successful and has a track record that is arguably better than anyone else playing right now who is still playing at his level. Why would you want to pick someone else higher than him unless its just for the sake of being different?

 

[LHUCKS]

Several reasons that Brady may be overvalued this year,most of which have been mentioned in this thread. I have him behind Stafford.

Several reasons why it is all irrelevant has also been mentioned too, however. Teams change a lot from yer to year. Its COMMON that people predict finishes for teams based on last year and they come out completely different. I really think going by last year's number are the wrong set of data to look at.Instead, why not look at what is known and always true:-Brady is a top QB in the league.-The Patriots are one of the few teams that don't take their foot off a team's throat when they get a lead.-As Dave mentioned above, Brady is very proven when playing against top NFL passing defenses. Overall, even with the numbers, its relative at best. I mean, saying the Patriots play against a team ranked #7 only means that, among the spectrum of NFL teams, this was the #7 team. But it does NOT mean they can stop the Patriots. I might be the #3 fastest guy on a track team but if I'm running a 4.7 40-time that would only really mean we have a very slow track team. The history shows, that beyond the numbers, Brady is always very successful and has a track record that is arguably better than anyone else playing right now who is still playing at his level. Why would you want to pick someone else higher than him unless its just for the sake of being different?

A) Better RunningbacksB) Tougher ScheduleC) Second half numbers declinedD) BB wants a more balanced offenseE) ETA...better defenseI'll take the under on last year's numbers...and I mean way under.

 

[cheese]

Name the teams with secondaries and a pass rush the Patriots should be fearful of on their schedule. Please name the teams that are tough outside of Baltimore and San Fran.

Houston for sure. It's hard to say about Buffalo, but they added a 1st rd CB and Mario Williams.