brady has the toughest passing schedule this year (1 Viewer)

[Alex P Keaton]

Strength of schedule is usually worth a warm bucket of spit.

Here were the top five passing defenses in 2011:

PIT

CLE

HOU

BAL

NYJ

Great. Now we know who will be tough in 2012. Only...

Here were the top passing defenses in 2010:

SDO

OAK

BUF

NOS

GBP

Ooops.

right. odd are houston won't be a top 5 defense again. but odds are houston will be a better defense than arizona. odds are hou+jax+sf will be a tougher playoff schedule than atlanta playing car+nyg+det. it's tough to predict specifics but its easier to predict things on a larger scale. the more games you take into account, the more likely it is that the random defenses that over preform will tend to cancel out the random defenses that under preform and vice versa. ex: its tough to say how many yards calvin will get in week 1. he could get anywhere from 20 to 200. no matter what number you pick, chances are your going to be off by alot. but, it's easy to predict how many yards calvin will get over the entire season. if you guess 1400, there is a pretty good chance you will be close to the actual number.

I did a study a few years ago on "predictive power" of prior year strength of schedule...and impact on fantasy points allowed by defenses. It demonstrated what DiStefano is talking about. Caveat: it was written late at night in between feedings for newborn twins, so if anything reads bizarrely, that is one possible reason.

SOS study

 

[Shutout]

Several reasons that Brady may be overvalued this year,most of which have been mentioned in this thread.

I have him behind Stafford.

Several reasons why it is all irrelevant has also been mentioned too, however. Teams change a lot from yer to year. Its COMMON that people predict finishes for teams based on last year and they come out completely different. I really think going by last year's number are the wrong set of data to look at.Instead, why not look at what is known and always true:

-Brady is a top QB in the league.

-The Patriots are one of the few teams that don't take their foot off a team's throat when they get a lead.

-As Dave mentioned above, Brady is very proven when playing against top NFL passing defenses.

Overall, even with the numbers, its relative at best. I mean, saying the Patriots play against a team ranked #7 only means that, among the spectrum of NFL teams, this was the #7 team. But it does NOT mean they can stop the Patriots. I might be the #3 fastest guy on a track team but if I'm running a 4.7 40-time that would only really mean we have a very slow track team. The history shows, that beyond the numbers, Brady is always very successful and has a track record that is arguably better than anyone else playing right now who is still playing at his level. Why would you want to pick someone else higher than him unless its just for the sake of being different?

A) Better Runningbacks-To catch more balls out of the backfield and open up bigger play action down the field=more big passing plays.B) Tougher Schedule-Pure speculation. I remember the year the Saints went from doormats to a playoff team ALL the experts predicting they would win 4 games. Its much more reasonable to predict a great player will continue to perform based on their history than it is 1 of 32 teams will continue ro change. Many more variables in the latter. And, statistically, the Patriots actually have a much easier schedule, by the NFL numbers,,,for what that's worth.

C) Second half numbers declined-Nobody stays on a constant...No player..Brees was on an "incline" compared to himself at one point and a decline in another. Unless you suggest Brady is declining as a player, this says little and it would be hard to prove brady is experiencing deminishing skills.

D) BB wants a more balanced offense-I agree BB is unpredictable and could do anything in his offensive philosophy. But to truly "balance this offense", one or two of these RBs would have to show more productivity, relative, than the likes of Brady and Gronk and Welker and Hernandez and now Lloyd. I'm not inclined to bet on that.

I'll take the under on last year's numbers...and I mean way under.

To be perfectly honest, I think anyone who makes a blanket statement such as you expect brady to be WAY UNDER last year's numbers is either:a)Predicting injury

b)uninformed (which I know is not the case)

c)Perhaps has a different agenda.

Why would we predict a "way under" year? Apply the logic to another team using your 4 points:

A)The Giants got a spectacular Rb, The Lions figure to have better RBs, The saints RBs should be healthier/better. Do we predict the same demise for them?

b)Again, who knows what the schedule really means. The Niners may look tough but what happens if they lose 5 starting defenders in week 2? Are they still tough when they play an elite QB in week 3?

c)Brady, against his average, for FF points did not decline at the end of the year. The points were consistent. The one BIG QB that declined was Cam Newton. But I wouldn't predict a slump for him based on a 3-4 week stretch in the previous season.

d)ALL coaches preach a desire for balance. But all coaches that keep their jobs know that you dance with the one you brought to the party, especially when they are a good dancer. The Pats aren't going to shackle Brady on that premise any more than the Saints would shackle Brees based on a desire to get Ingram and Thomas more involved in a balanced ground game.

Just my opinions in all this but, in general, when you make a significant statement against a HOF type player with a proven history, there needs to be more than just generalalities.

 

[Banger]

Several reasons that Brady may be overvalued this year,most of which have been mentioned in this thread. I have him behind Stafford.

Several reasons why it is all irrelevant has also been mentioned too, however. Teams change a lot from yer to year. Its COMMON that people predict finishes for teams based on last year and they come out completely different. I really think going by last year's number are the wrong set of data to look at.Instead, why not look at what is known and always true:-Brady is a top QB in the league.-The Patriots are one of the few teams that don't take their foot off a team's throat when they get a lead.-As Dave mentioned above, Brady is very proven when playing against top NFL passing defenses. Overall, even with the numbers, its relative at best. I mean, saying the Patriots play against a team ranked #7 only means that, among the spectrum of NFL teams, this was the #7 team. But it does NOT mean they can stop the Patriots. I might be the #3 fastest guy on a track team but if I'm running a 4.7 40-time that would only really mean we have a very slow track team. The history shows, that beyond the numbers, Brady is always very successful and has a track record that is arguably better than anyone else playing right now who is still playing at his level. Why would you want to pick someone else higher than him unless its just for the sake of being different?

A) Better RunningbacksB) Tougher ScheduleC) Second half numbers declinedD) BB wants a more balanced offenseI'll take the under on last year's numbers...and I mean way under.

Basically disagree with everything in your post except for possibly the tougher schedule....Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead and Bolden is better than BJGE, Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead? 1st half he threw for 2703 and 20 tds, 2nd half 2532 and 19...is that a drop or the flip of a coin? If you annualize his 2nd half "dropped" stats it's 5,000 yards and 38 tds....not a bad year.where has BB said that he wanted a more balanced offense or even shown through actions that he wants a more balanced attack? They had a great passing attack and let their #1 rb go and replaced him wiht a UDFA and signed a deep threat WR that has been getting rave reviews. I think they may actually less than last year as their RBs are really nothing to write home about.ETA...I'm FAR from a Pat lover but to me this passing offense is going to be ridiculous this year. I can't believe that I'm actually posting in favor of the Pats and arguing how good they are going to be. I think I need a bath....

 

[LHUCKS]

Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead and Bolden is better than BJGE, Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead?

Correct, the talent got a year of experience under their belt. BJGE was not the talent.

1st half he threw for 2703 and 20 tds, 2nd half 2532 and 19...is that a drop or the flip of a coin?

You're looking at the wrong numbers. Start with pass attempts and SOS.

where has BB said that he wanted a more balanced offense or even shown through actions that he wants a more balanced attack?

If somebody can provide the link that would be great. He said it last year several times during the season. I expect pass attempts to trend down as they did the 2nd half of last season.

 

[David Yudkin]

A) Better Runningbacks

How does anyone know if they are actually better running backs? Sure, they may be better pure runners, but we have no idea hoe they will do. Certainly the sample size for how they've done is really, really small.

B) Tougher Schedule

We have no idea if it truly is a tougher schedule (as others have mentioned). And Brady has had games with 4 or 5 TDs against Top 5 defenses before, it's not like he will be awful.

C) Second half numbers declined

In most years, Brady's numbers declined as the year went on. But you'd be wrong about last year. He averaaged 27.4 ppg the first 8 games vs. 30.4 ppg the last 8 games.Rodgers dropped off from 33.7 to 31.3 and Newton fell from 28.9 to 25 ppg. Is that cause for alarm for either of those two?

D) BB wants a more balanced offense

Was that information obtained by personal phone call? How'd things work out when McDaniels was there before? They were into shock and awe and running the score up. The main difference then and now is the defense these days is way worse than the one they had in 2007. The Pats will have to pass to stay in games.And if they wanted a more balanced attack, why go out and bring in Lloyd, Gaffney, and Stallworth. Wouldn't they have brought in more RBs and not let BJGE walk?

I'll take the under on last year's numbers...and I mean way under.

It would not surprise me at all if Brady had the first 5000/50 season in history. I don't know if he will hit either of those, but if he "only" gets 4800/45, would anyone that drafted him be disappointed?

 

[Da Man]

I fully expect a 5,000 yd, 50 TD season from Brady or very close to that.

 

[hal9000]

Please stop responding to LHUCKS. All of us that have him on ignore thank you in advance.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

you really don't understand?you asked if I was worried about brady playing sfo, so I looked at the top 6 qb games sfo faced, and based on those results I'm not worried about it.I wasn't worried about it before, though, but it doesn't hurt to look into it.

I think people forget that it's easier to be a "top pass defense" when you face subpar QBs.For example:In the NFC West, SF had to face (a gimpy) Bradford/Clemmens, Kolb/Skelton and Jackson/Whitehurst twice a year.In the NFC South, Houston had to face Collins/Painter, Gabbert and Hasslebeck.I'm not saying that neither team had a great defense - but end of the year stats are influenced by competition as well.Does anyone think either team would be a top pass defense if they faced Tom Brady 16 times during the season?

 

[LHUCKS]

Please stop responding to LHUCKS. All of us that have him on ignore thank you in advance.

And this is an example of why I, and several other posters, have stopped posting in this forum. This guy joined the board in '09...I have 37K profile views and 11 posts per day since 2003.

 

[pizzatyme]

I look at it like this. I think the Patriots opponents need to be worried about having to face the top passing attack in the league this season. I'm pretty sure the Patriots will get theirs.

 

[urbanhack]

All these types of concerns have been addressed in several other threads . . .

For starters, I am not sure where people are getting that the 20102 Pats schedule is so terrible against the pass. Here were the defensive passing ratings they will face in 2012 . . .



We have no idea how defenses will be in 2012 compared to 2011 . . .

 

[12punch]

Re sfo

There was another game a few years ago that was supposed to test the pats - a very strong defense, particularly against the run, like sfo

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2006103000/2006/REG8/patriots@vikings

 

[flc735]

Picking future on past performance in the NFL proves to be futile at best, over and over again.

In short, this thread can be summed up by saying NBYS.

nope. what happened last year is the largest factor we consider when predicting and ranking players this year.what does naples bay yact storage have anything to do with this?

 

[flc735]

you really don't understand?you asked if I was worried about brady playing sfo, so I looked at the top 6 qb games sfo faced, and based on those results I'm not worried about it.I wasn't worried about it before, though, but it doesn't hurt to look into it.

I think people forget that it's easier to be a "top pass defense" when you face subpar QBs.For example:In the NFC West, SF had to face (a gimpy) Bradford/Clemmens, Kolb/Skelton and Jackson/Whitehurst twice a year.In the NFC South, Houston had to face Collins/Painter, Gabbert and Hasslebeck.I'm not saying that neither team had a great defense - but end of the year stats are influenced by competition as well.Does anyone think either team would be a top pass defense if they faced Tom Brady 16 times during the season?

i said this a few times. the numbers i used adjusted for this. this isn't a factor here

 

[Obie Wan]

Name the teams with secondaries and a pass rush the Patriots should be fearful of on their schedule. Please name the teams that are tough outside of Baltimore and San Fran.

Houston for sure. It's hard to say about Buffalo, but they added a 1st rd CB and Mario Williams.

but the Bills LBs all suck-Brady will complete a ton of passes- as long he does not take all day in the pocket

 

[pizzatyme]

Picking future on past performance in the NFL proves to be futile at best, over and over again.

In short, this thread can be summed up by saying NBYS.

nope. what happened last year is the largest factor we consider when predicting and ranking players this year.what does naples bay yact storage have anything to do with this?

 

[Jewell]

Via SI.com and Cold Hard Football Facts...

Tom Brady is in the midst of one of the great seasons any quarterback has ever produced -- yet again.

His statistical calling card is a truly unique combination of individual stats, pinball-sized scoreboard totals and team victories that distinguish him from any quarterback in the history of the NFL.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts say that Brady is the obvious choice, perhaps the only choice, to earn NFL Most Valuable Player honors at the end of the season.

Brady and the New England Patriots already wrapped up the AFC East crown with a quarter of the season to play. He is among the league leaders in every meaningful passing category. And he leads the greatest offensive machine in the history of football.

Yet the future first-ballot Hall of Famer is somehow flying under the radar screen this year. Brady is at best the fifth biggest quarterbacking story in football, behind rookie phenoms Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning's resurrection in Denver, and Matt Ryan's leadership of the 11-1 Falcons.

Perhaps the pigskin public has Brady Burnout. He's so consistently productive and his well-oiled Patriots win with such machine-like ruthlessness that we've simply stopped taking notice.

But Brady is the best choice through Week 13 for league MVP honors, with a chance to cement his status under the bright lights of primetime football against the 11-1 Houston Texans Monday night in Foxboro.

Here's why:

Elite individual production

Brady is yet among the league leaders in every major passing category, both in volume stats and in the more important efficiency indicators that ultimately win and lose games.

Brady and the Patriots rank:

• No. 1 in quarterback turnovers (4 INT, 0 fumble), among season-long starters

• No. 2 in Real Quarterback Rating (98.7), our measure of all aspects of QB play

• No. 4 in Offensive Passer Rating (102.3)

• No. 4 in touchdown passes (25)

• No. 5 Real Passing Yards per Attempt (7.11)

• No. 6 in passing yards (3,537)

Brady's hallmark has always been pairing great production while limiting mistakes. And he's at an elite level in that skill again in 2012.

He's produced 28 touchdowns (25 passing, 3 rushing) this year with a total of just four turnovers. That 7 to 1 TD-turnover ratio is on pace to be the third best single-season mark in NFL history.

The two seasons better: Brady's 37 total TDs and 5 turnovers in 2010 (7.4 to 1) and Aaron Rodgers' 48 and 6 (8 to 1) in 2011. Both earned MVP honors in those seasons.

That ability to protect the football is typically undervalued by fans and analysts. But as we noted here last week, teams that win the turnover battle typically win 80 percent of all NFL games.

Brady's deadly efficiency and his ability to protect the football is probably the greatest reason behind New England's ability win so consistently year after year.

Consider this: teams better in Real Quarterback Rating win about 85 percent of all NFL games year after year (160-30, .842, in 2012), according to the Correlation to Victory table at CHFF Insider. Brady consistently dominates this battle of efficiency.

New England's record-setting offense

It's one thing to rack up stats. But Brady and the Patriots turn all those yards and stats into points at a clip unlike any team in the history of the NFL.

They lead the NFL with 430 points scored here in 2012, an average of 35.8 PPG. That's a full touchdown per game ahead of the No. 2 Texans (29.3 PPG).

Brady right now leads the greatest offensive machine football has ever seen, about to top 500 points scored for the fourth time in six years.

• 2007 Patriots -- 589 points (NFL record)

• 2012 Patriots -- 573 points (projected)

• 2010 Patriots -- 518 points

• 2011 Patriots -- 513 points

We might be talking six-for-six had Brady not missed the entire 2008 season to injury and struggled to regain his form in 2009.

No other franchise has scored 500 points in four different seasons. In fact, only 10 teams have done it even once.

Peyton Manning led a 500-point offense only once (522 in 2004); Dan Marino only once (513 in 1984); John Elway only once (501 in 1998); Joe Montana never did it. His best point total was 475 in 1984.

Brady and the Patriots, meanwhile, are lapping the field here in 2012. Only three teams are within even 100 points of New England's 430 points scored.

The endless string of victories

So Brady racks up stats and points. But more importantly, he racks up wins more consistently than any quarterback in modern football history. The pace of victories is absolutely breathtaking.

The only other QB in the discussion among all-time great winners is Otto Graham, the Cleveland Browns Hall of Famer who last played in 1955 and spent only six years in the NFL.

The Patriots are 9-3 in 2012, wrapping up the AFC East with four games to play.

Brady has now led his team to a division title a record 10 times -- and he's done it in just 11 years on the field. The Patriots lost the division to the Jets on a three-way tiebreaker in 2002 and, with Matt Cassel at QB, lost out to the Dolphins on tiebreakers in 2012.

New England is the only team in history to post the best record in their division 12 straight seasons.

Brady has the Patriots in the Super Bowl discussion this year despite being paired with a defense that is merely average on a good day (No. 14 in scoring defense in 2012). It certainly forces plenty of turnovers. But it's still a porous unit compared with the defenses on other elite NFL teams.

In fact, it's been a long time since New England fielded a very good defense, let alone an elite defense. New England last true Super Bowl-caliber defense was back in 2006.

Regardless, the wins keep coming, including here in 2012.

Brady sets a new milestone for quarterbacks

The Patriots prepare to host the Texans Monday night after winning six straight games.

During the streak, Brady passed a stunning milestone that puts his career in context: he's now the first and only quarterback in NFL history to win 100 more games than he's lost.

Brady is 133-38 in the regular season and 16-6 in the postseason, tying Joe Montana for the most playoff wins. With a combined record of 149-44, he boasts 105 more wins than losses.

No quarterback is even close. Here's a look at how Brady's wins and losses compare to those of the other quarterbacks on the all-time win list (records include postseason; ties not included):

• Tom Brady -- 149-44 (+105 wins)

• Joe Montana -- 133-54 (+79)

• Peyton Manning -- 159-80 (+79)

• Brett Favre -- 199-123 (+76)

• John Elway -- 162-90 (+72)

• Terry Bradshaw -- 121-55 (+66)

• Johnny Unitas -- 124-67 (+57)

• Dan Marino -- 155-103 (+52)

• Frank Tarkenton -- 130-114 (+16)

Players come and go. Seasons change. But one thing has remained constant for more than a decade: the Patriots win when Brady is under center.

Here in 2012, Brady is putting up premier individual numbers, leading his team on one of the great offensive runs in history, winning games and doing it with an average defense. He has his Patriots poised for yet another Super Bowl run -- in what would be his record sixth Super Bowl appearance.

If that resume doesn't spell M-V-P, we're not sure what does.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/kerry_byrne/12/04/tom-brady-mvp/index.html#ixzz2E90pOyHL

 

[flc735]

my original question was weather or not brady should be the #1 qb selected in ff this year. we were all abuzz about him once they brought in lloyd (and before we knew ridley would be good) and many of us thought he could throw for 5,000 and 45 TDs or maybe more. i thought that as well until i looked at his schedule.

many of you pretended that i said brady will suck but in reality, i said "guys, i think brady should be our #3 qb behind brees and rodgers because of his tough schedule".

at this point, he is on pace for 4,716 yds and 33 TDs. good numbers but far below what the brady fans here were expecting. also, according to my league, he is behind brees and rodgers as far as fantasy points go.

i don't know why you posted this here. my argument was purely fantasy related and so far, i am correct.

 

[Jewell]

i don't know why you posted this here. my argument was purely fantasy related and so far, i am correct.

I posted that article here because I thought it was an interesting and that other FBGs may enjoy it. Rather than cluttering up the Shark Pool with a new thread, I did a search and found the Brady related thread where this article would best fit. I didn't read your OP or the other posts in the thread. Stop taking things so personally.

 

[Phlash]

i don't know why you posted this here. my argument was purely fantasy related and so far, i am correct.

I posted that article here because I thought it was an interesting and that other FBGs may enjoy it. Rather than cluttering up the Shark Pool with a new thread, I did a search and found the Brady related thread where this article would best fit. I didn't read your OP or the other posts in the thread. Stop taking things so personally.

I loved the post TB is an absolute pleasure to watch play. We're lucky to witness him put his talents on display each week.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Excellent post Jewell

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

flying under the radar screen

Does SI not have editors?