Brandon Jacobs - dynasty (1 Viewer)

[brakeyawself]

Statistically, on in an even field, it is just as possible for one player to acheive what another can. Barring personal football skills and conditions. To make a blanket statement like "impossible" is just foolish.

Because I am embarrassed for you...LT had roughly 5500 more yards than Jacobs has at a similar age, and has added two fine years at 26 and 27. So Jacobs is about 8600 yards behind. Now it's possible that you believe Jacobs will reel off six straight 1500 yard seasons from 26-31 and Tomlinson won't budge from his current total, but most of us aren't banking on that.You're welcome.

Ok. Don't feel the need to be embarrased for me. I thought we were speaking of single season predictions, not career projections. On a single season scale, i dont see why any runninback could not have the same single season totals as LT, from Bush, Addai, Jacobs you name it. Mathematically, it is not impossible. However, while 6 straight 1500 yard seasons is incredibly unlikely it is still not statistically IMPOSSIBLE. I am not arguing that Jacobs will ever even match a single season of LT. I am saying that statistically, the numbers themselves are not impossible, just highly improbable. I dont know if you guys dont understand my argument or you are speaking strictly on a football basis. But that's my sumation. Get it? Sumation? Anyway if you still feel embarrased for me let me know so I can pitty you. Thanks.

 

[Jedimaster21]

Two things...

1. H.K., please post the actual numbers you used and how you came to your conclusion. Please stop being ambiguous and trying to confuse people.

2. Let's get back to discussing Jacob's dynasty value...

 

[ELI2TYREE]

How is 210 carries (average of about 13 carries per game) for 903 yards (4.3 YPC), 9 TDs and 24 receptions for 180 yards (7.5 YPR) and 0 receiving TDs statistically impossible for Jacobs to achieve??

Let me qualify my answer: It's statistically impossible for him to achieve those aggregate numbers during the 2007 season starting from zero. If we are talking career numbers then I think he will hit the 210 carry mark this season because he only needs another 80 carries or so to do that.....However, he would need 13 recepts to hit the 24 mark for his career, which seems unlikely to happen as he is only averaging 5.5 catches per season as a pro.

How is it statistically impossible? Its just statistically unlikley. You're basing your statistics on his past averages? I mean, that's reasonable, but I dont think impossible.

Career averages have nothing to do with it. 210 carries and 24 recepts, 1083 total yards and 9 TD's? Do the math, it's statistically impossible.

he's obviously pillaging this thread for poops and giggles. Don't waste your time with him. Jacobs will be the number one back in NYunless he fails...

 

[KellysHeroes]

I don't want to see 25 carries a game.. the guy won't last 3 yrs.

Anywhere from 15 to 20 carries a game will be effective for the Giants; a healthy/fresh BJ will be better than one that a beat up BJ.

 

[Ducegonads]

Seems like he would of been eating into Tiki's production more had he been viewed as the next big thing in NY. The TD total has been nice but that was also a great role for him. Being "the man" will have that guy getting tackled / hit low, alot. That would worry me in a Dynasty League. I see a 50/50 split with him and RD. Seemed like the NYG were looking for some vet RB help since FA began. That should tell us something.

PS - Traded him for Reggie Wayne strait up about a month ago. Team needed WR help bad. Felt good about deal.

 

[Cookiemonster]

How is 210 carries (average of about 13 carries per game) for 903 yards (4.3 YPC), 9 TDs and 24 receptions for 180 yards (7.5 YPR) and 0 receiving TDs statistically impossible for Jacobs to achieve??

Let me qualify my answer: It's statistically impossible for him to achieve those aggregate numbers during the 2007 season starting from zero. If we are talking career numbers then I think he will hit the 210 carry mark this season because he only needs another 80 carries or so to do that.....However, he would need 13 recepts to hit the 24 mark for his career, which seems unlikely to happen as he is only averaging 5.5 catches per season as a pro.

How is it statistically impossible? Its just statistically unlikley. You're basing your statistics on his past averages? I mean, that's reasonable, but I dont think impossible.

Career averages have nothing to do with it. 210 carries and 24 recepts, 1083 total yards and 9 TD's? Do the math, it's statistically impossible.

he's obviously pillaging this thread for poops and giggles. Don't waste your time with him. Jacobs will be the number one back in NYunless he fails...

Or because his draft is coming up and he hopes to push him down from his ADP a few spots.

 

[phthalatemagic]

How is 210 carries (average of about 13 carries per game) for 903 yards (4.3 YPC), 9 TDs and 24 receptions for 180 yards (7.5 YPR) and 0 receiving TDs statistically impossible for Jacobs to achieve??

Let me qualify my answer: It's statistically impossible for him to achieve those aggregate numbers during the 2007 season starting from zero. If we are talking career numbers then I think he will hit the 210 carry mark this season because he only needs another 80 carries or so to do that.....However, he would need 13 recepts to hit the 24 mark for his career, which seems unlikely to happen as he is only averaging 5.5 catches per season as a pro.

How is it statistically impossible? Its just statistically unlikley. You're basing your statistics on his past averages? I mean, that's reasonable, but I dont think impossible.

Career averages have nothing to do with it. 210 carries and 24 recepts, 1083 total yards and 9 TD's? Do the math, it's statistically impossible.

he's obviously pillaging this thread for poops and giggles. Don't waste your time with him. Jacobs will be the number one back in NYunless he fails...

Or because his draft is coming up and he hopes to push him down from his ADP a few spots.

Either way, that shouldn't be tolerated here.

 

[Lash]

I just can't get it out of my head that BJ will either win or lose leagues this year

he will either be worth a second rd pick or 8th rd pick

so picking him in rd 5 could either get you this year's 2007 Gore finder, or this year's 2007 LenDale White

and winning or not winning my league may depend on me figuring that out before the rest of my league mates

other than the troll posting here, this could be an important discussion

 

[H.K.]

he's obviously pillaging this thread for poops and giggles. Don't waste your time with him. Jacobs will be the number one back in NY unless he fails...

Best analysis yet. Just to really get the discussion going, I need to add that Jacobs will be healthy unless he gets hurt and he'll play in the day time unless its night. Good stuff.

 

[NorrisB]

Sell. He should be decent in 2007, but he's not a long-term featured back IMO.

 

[phillyphan07]

Seems like he would of been eating into Tiki's production more had he been viewed as the next big thing in NY. The TD total has been nice but that was also a great role for him. Being "the man" will have that guy getting tackled / hit low, alot. That would worry me in a Dynasty League. I see a 50/50 split with him and RD. Seemed like the NYG were looking for some vet RB help since FA began. That should tell us something.PS - Traded him for Reggie Wayne strait up about a month ago. Team needed WR help bad. Felt good about deal.

From a dynasty standpoint I'm holding onto him as an insurance policy in case one of my other guys goes down, and if he has a good season I'll use him as bait before the playoffs... but I dont see him as the long term solution in NY.... Droughns isn't that guy eitherOf course, just because he couldnt unseat tiki barber doesnt mean anything... Michael Turner has great stuff, but he's not pushing LT out anytime soon...

 

[Tenderknee]

Seems like he would of been eating into Tiki's production more had he been viewed as the next big thing in NY. The TD total has been nice but that was also a great role for him. Being "the man" will have that guy getting tackled / hit low, alot. That would worry me in a Dynasty League. I see a 50/50 split with him and RD. Seemed like the NYG were looking for some vet RB help since FA began. That should tell us something.PS - Traded him for Reggie Wayne strait up about a month ago. Team needed WR help bad. Felt good about deal.

I'm not saying that this situation at all mimics the Larry Johnson/Priest Holmes situation, but that latter disproves your first statement.

 

[FBGPoker]

Sell. He should be decent in 2007, but he's not a long-term featured back IMO.

 

[gethugefast1]

anyone remember "little Joe"? look up the guy who ran the ball for the g-men in '86 & '90 (superbowls) mr morris, joe as I call him still gets paid to do some "mentoring" fo the giants backfield. gets paid a pretty penny. told me just a week ago that brandon will surpass tiki's #'s during his first full season (compared to tiki's first full). look for jacobs to exlode this year, since the gmen will go back to grinding it out and relieve Eli much of the pressure. Joe was very excited about brandon pounding the ball with the giants going run/run/run offense. as long a jacobs stays healthy (staff knows he'll be worked almost every down), they're looking to go back to the old days of run & "d" to take the pressure off of Eli. "Possesion football" as little joe says it.

brandon will get 300 plus carries & depending on how the line blocks (inside & out) look for him to get 1500 plus & 12 or more tds on the ground alone. guy can catch the ball too.

btw...tiki will be in the hall & look at the stats joe morris could be too (picked up many of rusher's that would have sacked simms & hostetler during those superbowl years) joe told me so.

 

[RC94]

anyone remember "little Joe"? look up the guy who ran the ball for the g-men in '86 & '90 (superbowls) mr morris, joe as I call him still gets paid to do some "mentoring" fo the giants backfield. gets paid a pretty penny. told me just a week ago that brandon will surpass tiki's #'s during his first full season (compared to tiki's first full). look for jacobs to exlode this year, since the gmen will go back to grinding it out and relieve Eli much of the pressure. Joe was very excited about brandon pounding the ball with the giants going run/run/run offense. as long a jacobs stays healthy (staff knows he'll be worked almost every down), they're looking to go back to the old days of run & "d" to take the pressure off of Eli. "Possesion football" as little joe says it. brandon will get 300 plus carries & depending on how the line blocks (inside & out) look for him to get 1500 plus & 12 or more tds on the ground alone. guy can catch the ball too.btw...tiki will be in the hall & look at the stats joe morris could be too (picked up many of rusher's that would have sacked simms & hostetler during those superbowl years) joe told me so.

I guess Joe, while giving you all of this great information, forgot to tell you that 1988 was the last year he ran the ball for the Giants.

 

[H.K.]

anyone remember "little Joe"? look up the guy who ran the ball for the g-men in '86 & '90 (superbowls) mr morris, joe as I call him still gets paid to do some "mentoring" fo the giants backfield. gets paid a pretty penny. told me just a week ago that brandon will surpass tiki's #'s during his first full season (compared to tiki's first full). look for jacobs to exlode this year, since the gmen will go back to grinding it out and relieve Eli much of the pressure. Joe was very excited about brandon pounding the ball with the giants going run/run/run offense. as long a jacobs stays healthy (staff knows he'll be worked almost every down), they're looking to go back to the old days of run & "d" to take the pressure off of Eli. "Possesion football" as little joe says it. brandon will get 300 plus carries & depending on how the line blocks (inside & out) look for him to get 1500 plus & 12 or more tds on the ground alone. guy can catch the ball too.btw...tiki will be in the hall & look at the stats joe morris could be too (picked up many of rusher's that would have sacked simms & hostetler during those superbowl years) joe told me so.

I guess Joe, while giving you all of this great information, forgot to tell you that 1988 was the last year he ran the ball for the Giants.

:( Gotta give credit for the quality of the bait used on his line though

 

[Prof. Chaos]

I just can't get it out of my head that BJ will either win or lose leagues this yearhe will either be worth a second rd pick or 8th rd pickso picking him in rd 5 could either get you this year's 2007 Gore finder, or this year's 2007 LenDale White and winning or not winning my league may depend on me figuring that out before the rest of my league matesother than the troll posting here, this could be an important discussion

Agree on all the above.