Brandon marshall Strategy (1 Viewer)

[aj2631]

I was trying to decide between Marshall, Austin White and Wayne and i noticed that marshall plays the Jets in the 1st week of my leagues playoffs..... Would that scare you away?

My rankings right now is Austin ,White , Wayne and Marshall .. because of this Info..... What yall think?

 

[Avery]

If you are stuck between two of them, it might be a good way to break the tie but I'd rank them independently of the week 14, 15 and 16 matchups first and see if you really prefer one.

A lot can happen in 14 weeks of football.

 

[SSOG]

Now that the last decade is on the books, here are the first- and second-team AP All Pros at CB in each season from 2000-2009 (the first two names are the first teamers, the second two names are the second teamers, except in 2005 where there were 3 first teamers and 2009 where there were 3 second teamers):

Sam Madison, Samari Rolle, Charles Woodson, Champ Bailey

Aeneas Williams, Ronde Barber, Sam Madison, Troy Vincent

Patrick Surtain, Troy Vincent, Ronde Barber, Bobby Taylor

Ty Law, Chris McAlister, Champ Bailey, Patrick Surtain

Champ Bailey, Lito Sheppard, Chris McAlister, Terrence McGee

Champ Bailey, Ronde Barber, Deltha O'Neal, Terrence McGee, Nathan Vasher

Champ Bailey, Rashean Mathis, Ronde Barber, Nnamdi Asomugha

Asante Samuel, Antonio Cromartie, Champ Bailey, Al Harris

Nnamdi Asomugha, Cortland Finnegan, Charles Woodson, Antoine Winfield

Charles Woodson, Darrell Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, Leon Hall

Now, what does this mean, and what on earth does this have to do with Brandon Marshall? If you look at the 19 first team AP All Pros (not counting last year's), you'll see that they repeated as a first-team AP All Pro in year N+1 just twice (both times by Champ Bailey). First team AP All Pros in year N wound up appearing on the first or second team in year N+1 just 9 times out of a possible 19 (3 of the 9 were by Bailey). There was no season in the past decade where both of the first team AP All Pros were represented on the first or second team in year N+1. In short, there is not a lot of recent history of CBs posting elite seasons back-to-back. CBs can remain very good from year to year, but the only player in the last decade who produced a dominant season and managed to follow it with another dominant season was Champ Bailey (who managed to go back-to-back-to-back).

Unpacking this idea a little bit more... Revis was unbelievable last season. Nobody could get open against him (except for Ted Ginn, of course). This year, while he's still almost certainly going to be one of the best CBs in the game, the odds of him putting up that kind of season, the kind of season where you even sit uberstuds if they're up against him, are incredibly low. It's far more likely that he returns to "merely very good" levels (a la Rashean Mathis), and possible (albeit unlikely) that he regresses all the way down to "a bit above average" levels (a la Lito Sheppard).

Long story short... I think it's ridiculously premature to be worried about matchups at this stage of the season.

 

[Reaper]

Now that the last decade is on the books, here are the first- and second-team AP All Pros at CB in each season from 2000-2009 (the first two names are the first teamers, the second two names are the second teamers, except in 2005 where there were 3 first teamers and 2009 where there were 3 second teamers):Sam Madison, Samari Rolle, Charles Woodson, Champ BaileyAeneas Williams, Ronde Barber, Sam Madison, Troy VincentPatrick Surtain, Troy Vincent, Ronde Barber, Bobby TaylorTy Law, Chris McAlister, Champ Bailey, Patrick SurtainChamp Bailey, Lito Sheppard, Chris McAlister, Terrence McGeeChamp Bailey, Ronde Barber, Deltha O'Neal, Terrence McGee, Nathan VasherChamp Bailey, Rashean Mathis, Ronde Barber, Nnamdi AsomughaAsante Samuel, Antonio Cromartie, Champ Bailey, Al HarrisNnamdi Asomugha, Cortland Finnegan, Charles Woodson, Antoine WinfieldCharles Woodson, Darrell Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, Leon HallNow, what does this mean, and what on earth does this have to do with Brandon Marshall? If you look at the 19 first team AP All Pros (not counting last year's), you'll see that they repeated as a first-team AP All Pro in year N+1 just twice (both times by Champ Bailey). First team AP All Pros in year N wound up appearing on the first or second team in year N+1 just 9 times out of a possible 19 (3 of the 9 were by Bailey). There was no season in the past decade where both of the first team AP All Pros were represented on the first or second team in year N+1. In short, there is not a lot of recent history of CBs posting elite seasons back-to-back. CBs can remain very good from year to year, but the only player in the last decade who produced a dominant season and managed to follow it with another dominant season was Champ Bailey (who managed to go back-to-back-to-back).Unpacking this idea a little bit more... Revis was unbelievable last season. Nobody could get open against him (except for Ted Ginn, of course). This year, while he's still almost certainly going to be one of the best CBs in the game, the odds of him putting up that kind of season, the kind of season where you even sit uberstuds if they're up against him, are incredibly low. It's far more likely that he returns to "merely very good" levels (a la Rashean Mathis), and possible (albeit unlikely) that he regresses all the way down to "a bit above average" levels (a la Lito Sheppard).Long story short... I think it's ridiculously premature to be worried about matchups at this stage of the season.

Good stuff. Minus the Ginn comment :zone: That said, With Cromartie in a much better defense for his skills and rejuvinated, the 1st round pick Kyle Wilson getting rave reviews so far and even Dwight Lowery developing... The Jets are incredibly deep at CB - 4 strong IMO... I wonder how much more Revis will get tested and I also wonder if the Jets would mix it up a little more and put the taller Cromartie on some of the bigger WR's???

 

[Sweet Love]

Now that the last decade is on the books, here are the first- and second-team AP All Pros at CB in each season from 2000-2009 (the first two names are the first teamers, the second two names are the second teamers, except in 2005 where there were 3 first teamers and 2009 where there were 3 second teamers):Sam Madison, Samari Rolle, Charles Woodson, Champ BaileyAeneas Williams, Ronde Barber, Sam Madison, Troy VincentPatrick Surtain, Troy Vincent, Ronde Barber, Bobby TaylorTy Law, Chris McAlister, Champ Bailey, Patrick SurtainChamp Bailey, Lito Sheppard, Chris McAlister, Terrence McGeeChamp Bailey, Ronde Barber, Deltha O'Neal, Terrence McGee, Nathan VasherChamp Bailey, Rashean Mathis, Ronde Barber, Nnamdi AsomughaAsante Samuel, Antonio Cromartie, Champ Bailey, Al HarrisNnamdi Asomugha, Cortland Finnegan, Charles Woodson, Antoine WinfieldCharles Woodson, Darrell Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, Leon HallNow, what does this mean, and what on earth does this have to do with Brandon Marshall? If you look at the 19 first team AP All Pros (not counting last year's), you'll see that they repeated as a first-team AP All Pro in year N+1 just twice (both times by Champ Bailey). First team AP All Pros in year N wound up appearing on the first or second team in year N+1 just 9 times out of a possible 19 (3 of the 9 were by Bailey). There was no season in the past decade where both of the first team AP All Pros were represented on the first or second team in year N+1. In short, there is not a lot of recent history of CBs posting elite seasons back-to-back. CBs can remain very good from year to year, but the only player in the last decade who produced a dominant season and managed to follow it with another dominant season was Champ Bailey (who managed to go back-to-back-to-back).Unpacking this idea a little bit more... Revis was unbelievable last season. Nobody could get open against him (except for Ted Ginn, of course). This year, while he's still almost certainly going to be one of the best CBs in the game, the odds of him putting up that kind of season, the kind of season where you even sit uberstuds if they're up against him, are incredibly low. It's far more likely that he returns to "merely very good" levels (a la Rashean Mathis), and possible (albeit unlikely) that he regresses all the way down to "a bit above average" levels (a la Lito Sheppard).Long story short... I think it's ridiculously premature to be worried about matchups at this stage of the season.

While this analysis is nothing short of amazing, I don't see what it has to do "with the price of eggs in China". If Revis performs in week 14 and Marshall does not, that is all that matters. I fail to see how whether he is a repeat All-Pro has anything to do with week 14. What if Revis is average, at best, throughout the year, but has a banner game in week 14? His season would be a failure, but it would not help the OP. On the flipside, what if Revis is lengendary throughout the year, but has his one bad game in week 14? In the end, I really see how whether a CB makes All-Pro, versus Pro-Bowl, versus just good, has anything to do with week 14 between the Jets and Phins.

 

[Banger]

I say you pick the best player and draft a good backup/make a trade/pick up a free agent with a good week 14 matchup. Don't overthink it too much.

 

[HoleFiller]

I like the other three better than Marshall for completely different reasons but if you draft your team based on week 14 matchups you are more likely to be playing meaningless games then or not at all.

 

[comfortably numb]

I personally would not allow 1 game to deter me, but I would consider avoiding a RB that may face PIT/BAL/MIN for weeks 14-16.

 

[shader]

Now that the last decade is on the books, here are the first- and second-team AP All Pros at CB in each season from 2000-2009 (the first two names are the first teamers, the second two names are the second teamers, except in 2005 where there were 3 first teamers and 2009 where there were 3 second teamers):Sam Madison, Samari Rolle, Charles Woodson, Champ BaileyAeneas Williams, Ronde Barber, Sam Madison, Troy VincentPatrick Surtain, Troy Vincent, Ronde Barber, Bobby TaylorTy Law, Chris McAlister, Champ Bailey, Patrick SurtainChamp Bailey, Lito Sheppard, Chris McAlister, Terrence McGeeChamp Bailey, Ronde Barber, Deltha O'Neal, Terrence McGee, Nathan VasherChamp Bailey, Rashean Mathis, Ronde Barber, Nnamdi AsomughaAsante Samuel, Antonio Cromartie, Champ Bailey, Al HarrisNnamdi Asomugha, Cortland Finnegan, Charles Woodson, Antoine WinfieldCharles Woodson, Darrell Revis, Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, Leon HallNow, what does this mean, and what on earth does this have to do with Brandon Marshall? If you look at the 19 first team AP All Pros (not counting last year's), you'll see that they repeated as a first-team AP All Pro in year N+1 just twice (both times by Champ Bailey). First team AP All Pros in year N wound up appearing on the first or second team in year N+1 just 9 times out of a possible 19 (3 of the 9 were by Bailey). There was no season in the past decade where both of the first team AP All Pros were represented on the first or second team in year N+1. In short, there is not a lot of recent history of CBs posting elite seasons back-to-back. CBs can remain very good from year to year, but the only player in the last decade who produced a dominant season and managed to follow it with another dominant season was Champ Bailey (who managed to go back-to-back-to-back).Unpacking this idea a little bit more... Revis was unbelievable last season. Nobody could get open against him (except for Ted Ginn, of course). This year, while he's still almost certainly going to be one of the best CBs in the game, the odds of him putting up that kind of season, the kind of season where you even sit uberstuds if they're up against him, are incredibly low. It's far more likely that he returns to "merely very good" levels (a la Rashean Mathis), and possible (albeit unlikely) that he regresses all the way down to "a bit above average" levels (a la Lito Sheppard).Long story short... I think it's ridiculously premature to be worried about matchups at this stage of the season.

While this analysis is nothing short of amazing, I don't see what it has to do "with the price of eggs in China". If Revis performs in week 14 and Marshall does not, that is all that matters. I fail to see how whether he is a repeat All-Pro has anything to do with week 14. What if Revis is average, at best, throughout the year, but has a banner game in week 14? His season would be a failure, but it would not help the OP. On the flipside, what if Revis is lengendary throughout the year, but has his one bad game in week 14? In the end, I really see how whether a CB makes All-Pro, versus Pro-Bowl, versus just good, has anything to do with week 14 between the Jets and Phins.

I think his point is that it's impossible to predict what will happen in a particular game, and therefore trying to decide who to draft based on a week 14 matchup is over-thinking it a bit.

 

[Hjelle9]

I think I completely agree with the original post.

 

[fantasysharkctb]

Don't really care. Marshall can take a wr screen to the house on Revis just as easy as any other CB. Wouldn't worry at all

 

[HenryMuto]

I was trying to decide between Marshall, Austin White and Wayne and i noticed that marshall plays the Jets in the 1st week of my leagues playoffs..... Would that scare you away?My rankings right now is Austin ,White , Wayne and Marshall .. because of this Info..... What yall think?

Maybe Marshall will carry your team to a 1st round bye.

 

[the spanker]

I was trying to decide between Marshall, Austin White and Wayne and i noticed that marshall plays the Jets in the 1st week of my leagues playoffs..... Would that scare you away?My rankings right now is Austin ,White , Wayne and Marshall .. because of this Info..... What yall think?

Maybe Marshall will carry your team to a 1st round bye.

Yep. I always try my best to get that bye. Really happened to help me last year as week 13 was terrible for my starters (had my team not had the bye) but took off the rest of the way.

 

[SSOG]

While this analysis is nothing short of amazing, I don't see what it has to do "with the price of eggs in China". If Revis performs in week 14 and Marshall does not, that is all that matters. I fail to see how whether he is a repeat All-Pro has anything to do with week 14. What if Revis is average, at best, throughout the year, but has a banner game in week 14? His season would be a failure, but it would not help the OP. On the flipside, what if Revis is lengendary throughout the year, but has his one bad game in week 14? In the end, I really see how whether a CB makes All-Pro, versus Pro-Bowl, versus just good, has anything to do with week 14 between the Jets and Phins.

As I understand it, the OP's fear of Revis shutting down Marshall in week 14 is based on the unbelievable season that Revis just had. As such, I think it's incredibly relevant to point out that Revis isn't likely to play as well next year as he did last year. Sure, he could have a great game in week 14, or a terrible game in week 14, I was just pointing out that Revis likely won't be quite as much of a "shut down" CB next year as he was this year.

 

[Gatorman]

While this analysis is nothing short of amazing, I don't see what it has to do "with the price of eggs in China". If Revis performs in week 14 and Marshall does not, that is all that matters. I fail to see how whether he is a repeat All-Pro has anything to do with week 14. What if Revis is average, at best, throughout the year, but has a banner game in week 14? His season would be a failure, but it would not help the OP. On the flipside, what if Revis is lengendary throughout the year, but has his one bad game in week 14? In the end, I really see how whether a CB makes All-Pro, versus Pro-Bowl, versus just good, has anything to do with week 14 between the Jets and Phins.

As I understand it, the OP's fear of Revis shutting down Marshall in week 14 is based on the unbelievable season that Revis just had. As such, I think it's incredibly relevant to point out that Revis isn't likely to play as well next year as he did last year. Sure, he could have a great game in week 14, or a terrible game in week 14, I was just pointing out that Revis likely won't be quite as much of a "shut down" CB next year as he was this year.

I agree with this. So much can happen between now and week 14. Both (or either) can get hurt. Revis' contract issues cause him to miss time in TC which puts him a little off his game all year. Yada Yada Yada.It is good analysis, but Marshall is bug and physical enough to be the one guy who ends up owning revis. You never know.

 

[Sweet Love]

While this analysis is nothing short of amazing, I don't see what it has to do "with the price of eggs in China". If Revis performs in week 14 and Marshall does not, that is all that matters. I fail to see how whether he is a repeat All-Pro has anything to do with week 14. What if Revis is average, at best, throughout the year, but has a banner game in week 14? His season would be a failure, but it would not help the OP. On the flipside, what if Revis is lengendary throughout the year, but has his one bad game in week 14? In the end, I really see how whether a CB makes All-Pro, versus Pro-Bowl, versus just good, has anything to do with week 14 between the Jets and Phins.

As I understand it, the OP's fear of Revis shutting down Marshall in week 14 is based on the unbelievable season that Revis just had. As such, I think it's incredibly relevant to point out that Revis isn't likely to play as well next year as he did last year. Sure, he could have a great game in week 14, or a terrible game in week 14, I was just pointing out that Revis likely won't be quite as much of a "shut down" CB next year as he was this year.

I agree with this. So much can happen between now and week 14. Both (or either) can get hurt. Revis' contract issues cause him to miss time in TC which puts him a little off his game all year. Yada Yada Yada.It is good analysis, but Marshall is bug and physical enough to be the one guy who ends up owning revis. You never know.

It was a poor post on my end. I see SSOG's point about it does not matter (which is mine too), just got sidetracked with the analysis and where I thought you may be going with it. In the end, I agree with SSOG's point about how it is impossible to predict just one week at this point, and to draft the best player regardless. I do have to say that with that in mind, I still feel it's irrelevant whether Revis is as good, worse, or even better in 2010 when analyzing just one week throughout the year, but I get his point.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

just a comment about Revis island....

the way I look at it is that he does have a small affect on the WR position....if you have a stud WR from NE/BUf/MIA you can basically assume you will get very little if anything from this WR for 3 weeks of the season....2 against Revis and 1 bye.....

1. Moss gets him twice during the regular fantasy season plus the bye for a total of (3)

2. Buffalo's #1 gets him only once and the bye for total of (2) (Buff faces NYJ in week 17 when most are done)

3. Marshall gets him once regular season and then once first week of playoffs as mentioned plus the bye....

not sure what all this means except that maybe you bump Moss down slightly because for 3 of the first 13 weeks he may have very little production....who really cares about the BUF situation.....and although this OP was about Marshall, although he gets Revis twice and once when it could really matter, if you stick with Marshall he has great matchups in week 15-16 (BUF and DET both in Miami).

 

[az_prof]

SSOG's analysis is interesting, but in the end, it is still possible that Revis IS that much better than other historical CBs. I don't ever remember any CB dominating the top WRs as much as he did. I am a bit worried about that week 14 matchup and might use playoff matchups as a tie breaker between equally valued players, but I would also look at weeks 15 and 16.

 

[Mr. Fusion]

Maybe Marshall will carry your team to a 1st round bye.

Although, I personally have Austin pretty far above Marshall. That being said, I would definitely not take a player I had ranked lower overall because of one week's matchup.

 

[radballs]

You just never know how the Jets might choose their coverage for that week. I'd take any of the other 3 anyway just because I have them ranked higher than Marshall. Additionally, factor in that Marshall is the only one of the four to switch to a different team and his potential attitude problems and it's not close for me.

 

[TheFanatic]

While this analysis is nothing short of amazing, I don't see what it has to do "with the price of eggs in China". If Revis performs in week 14 and Marshall does not, that is all that matters. I fail to see how whether he is a repeat All-Pro has anything to do with week 14. What if Revis is average, at best, throughout the year, but has a banner game in week 14? His season would be a failure, but it would not help the OP. On the flipside, what if Revis is lengendary throughout the year, but has his one bad game in week 14? In the end, I really see how whether a CB makes All-Pro, versus Pro-Bowl, versus just good, has anything to do with week 14 between the Jets and Phins.

As I understand it, the OP's fear of Revis shutting down Marshall in week 14 is based on the unbelievable season that Revis just had. As such, I think it's incredibly relevant to point out that Revis isn't likely to play as well next year as he did last year. Sure, he could have a great game in week 14, or a terrible game in week 14, I was just pointing out that Revis likely won't be quite as much of a "shut down" CB next year as he was this year.

Great analysis, SSOG. The way I see it, look for the guy to best get you to the playoffs first. If he has three tough matchups then maybe look to reconsider but otherwise don't sweat a single game...

 

[TWP]

just a comment about Revis island....the way I look at it is that he does have a small affect on the WR position....if you have a stud WR from NE/BUf/MIA you can basically assume you will get very little if anything from this WR for 3 weeks of the season....2 against Revis and 1 bye.....1. Moss gets him twice during the regular fantasy season plus the bye for a total of (3)2. Buffalo's #1 gets him only once and the bye for total of (2) (Buff faces NYJ in week 17 when most are done)3. Marshall gets him once regular season and then once first week of playoffs as mentioned plus the bye....not sure what all this means except that maybe you bump Moss down slightly because for 3 of the first 13 weeks he may have very little production....who really cares about the BUF situation.....and although this OP was about Marshall, although he gets Revis twice and once when it could really matter, if you stick with Marshall he has great matchups in week 15-16 (BUF and DET both in Miami).

This was true last year, too, and yet Moss put up solid numbers. Did anyone run SOS-adjusted FFP/gm numbers for WRs last year?

 

[Lord Fantasy]

When I clicked on this thread I thought you were going to suggest people draft Marshall, enjoy his early production and then trade for a BETTER player based on the overblown Week 14 Revis Island hype.

Now that's a Brandon Marshall Strategy.