6th pick in ppr, used no rb last year to have a solid year. Won money. I'm going over every possibility for my pick, and they all have question marks. Look at Brandon Marshall's game logs from last year, and tell me a good reason he shouldn't be my pick. Elliot, AP, D. Johnson question marks, Dez, question marks, not an AJ Green fan (look at his game logs, I know all about the other Bengals WRs not back), BM is a monster week in and week out, Fitz loves him. grab a WR 2nd round, that's a great start, take best RB in 3rd.....sounds like a plan.
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Brandon Marshall undervalued (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter richn
- Start date
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Seems excessive
No way he makes it back to me in the 2nd....I live in NY...ppr he doesn't come back to me. But again, he's so solid....you see a downside? I think he poses very little risk.
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Guys I'd take before Marshall in a PPR...Elliott, Peterson, D. Johnson, Gurley, L.Miller, A. Brown, Julio, OBJ, Green, Hopkins, Robinson.
That's eleven guys. You probably wouldn't get Marshall on the way back. But you would get a Freeman, Cooper, Jordy-type. I'm a Marshall fan. I love his consistency. But with his age, I'd much rather have an equally consistent guy (like Green, Hopkins, or Robinson) with more upside. If you take Marshall, the guys picking 7th and 8th will love you. They'd be grabbing a guy they thought would be gone.
If you expect him to outscore Green, Hopkins or whatever other wr might be in consideration there, don't let adp trump your projections. Live and die on them.
Only objection then would be a vbd consideration. Would the drop from Marshall to your likely second round wr (Nelson? Robinson? Dez?) be less than the drop from a first to second round rb selection. That argument could go either way, depending on your expectations for the top 5-10 RBs.
az_prof
Footballguy
I've owned him his entire career in dynasty. The only downside I see is his age and potential injury risk. Top end WRs tend to start to decline around 32. Even a durable player will get injured more often as he enters his thirties too.
He has never been a speedster so maybe he can extend his play longer--it seems like speed goes first and a guy who depends on it becomes average really fast when he loses it.
Overall, I am very optimistic he will have another great year but just suggesting that there is some potential downside to consider compared to a younger player.
He definitely is consistent. I'd have no fear of him putting up a dud season (barring injury, of course). He's seems to always be a lock for a 1000 yard/10 TD season. And I'd expect the same this year. Let's take Allen Robinson as a comparison. If you told me that one of these two would have 1300 yards and 14 touchdowns, I'd be almost positive that it would be Robinson. He's so young and only really got going last season. We don't even know yet what he can be. But, by the same token, if you told me one of the two had 850 yards and only 6 touchdowns, I'd also guess that it was Robinson. For those same reasons. I guess it depends if you are looking for the consistency or the higher ceiling.
thehornet
Footballguy
He has first round production but he has 2nd Rd value. Why over pay? Marshall is one of the best receivers of his generation. He def gets respect but not on a Dez-like level which is weird to me. This guy has pretty much been a beast since he was a rookie. It's rare.
Oh yeah.....Eeeeeeeeeeeee!
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Look at AJ Green's game log from last year he really is not as consistent as you would think. Robinson and Jordie were kept by teams. The running backs you listed all have question marks. I am not a Jets fan, I took OBJ with the 6th last year, people thought I was reaching. I like Dez too, but he has more risk to me...Hopkins is going at 4. I think he's the safest WR at that spot.
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He won't make it back, 12 team, everyone kept someone, there are Jets fans in the league
shadyridr
Footballguy
themitch
Footballguy
With keepers involved, I don't see this as a crazy stretch. If you like him, take him. Try to get Evans in round 2 and profit.
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah I see a downside. He's 32 years old. There is like 5 WR in the history of football to put up a top 5 or top 10 FF year at WR at that age. I not sure which one but he's a huge dog to repeat those numbers.
He's a great player. I don't think you'll be disappointed with Marshall. You used the word 'safest' and I think you could be right about that.
also VERY reasonable to think he can continue putting up these consistent monster numbers....32 is not that old for a WR who doesn't rely on speed....that's the first thing that diminishes. He had his best year ever, if he produces his career avg next year, wouldn't be too shabby. Came into camp in great shape, great repor with Fitz.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Not undervalued at all. He has been overdrafted all year imo.
I like him as WR #5..... everyone is entitled to their opinion. He finished as WR #3 last year....I believe he's a special player and keeps it up.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Accordig to this ADP Marshall is being drafted as the 8th WR overall. If you think he will finish 5th overall for WR your not gaining much value there at all. He is being drafted at his ceiling and TD numbers at least are very likely to go down.
He is being drafted much higher than Larry Fitzgerald who I think is a better player than Marshall but can be had 43 picks later. Fitzgerald finished 6th overall last season to Marshalls fourth. So I cannot call Marshall undervalued in any way.
Marshall has been going high all offseason. He is a good player no question, I just don't see him representing any value at his ADP.
He is being drafted much higher than Larry Fitzgerald who I think is a better player than Marshall but can be had 43 picks later. Fitzgerald finished 6th overall last season to Marshalls fourth. So I cannot call Marshall undervalued in any way.
Marshall has been going high all offseason. He is a good player no question, I just don't see him representing any value at his ADP.
I wish I did like someone better....the RBs have a lot of risk to me. WRs projected higher aren't thrilling me either.....I guess according to most, I'll be reaching a bit.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
What risks are you referring to for the RB's?
Elliot rookie RB and a team where QB is out. D Johnson small sample size who excelled when CJ and Ellington were out, they're back. AP a freak but age, and Bridgwater who Defs had to watch his scrambling ability is out. 1st round RBs have more often then not, lived up to preseason hype. They also generally get injured more then WRs.
the spanker
Footballguy
Taking any RB with perhaps the exception of David Johnson and maybe Miller (and that's really pushing it) would be a mistake.
On 2nd thought I'd still be tempted to take him over those guys too.
But I do agree taking him end of 1st beginning of 2nd would be ideal.
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simey
Footballguy
Bobby Guano
Footballguy
If he's the guy you want there take him and don't flinch. I just took him as the 7th WR off the board at the #8 spot in my main PPR league (over Allen Robinson and Mike Evens). No brainer at that point imo I would have taken him over Hopkins and Dez too if they were available but not AJ Green. (Have AJ #4 and Marshall #5)
Imo you are going to be way more angry if you listen to someone else and go for a different WR or the better mythical "value" by taking a top RB and that RB/WR doesn't live up to expectations then if you just go for Mashall and he bombs.
Imo you are going to be way more angry if you listen to someone else and go for a different WR or the better mythical "value" by taking a top RB and that RB/WR doesn't live up to expectations then if you just go for Mashall and he bombs.
Nucker101
Footballguy
Meh. I know he really rejuvenated with the move to New York and that new specified diet he's been on but he's one of those guys I was buying last year but now that he's being properly valued I'm probably not going to own him. If I'm taking a chance on an older stud WR, I'll take my chances with Fitz a couple of rounds later.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Ive got him ranked right after arob, fitz,will feed him often... Again...
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djjosee
Footballguy
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shadyridr
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think that's a good strategy - get Marshall in the early 2nd and get an extra pick out of it - maybe a 4th or 5th - someone might want to move up to 6 to get DJohnson or Eliott and might pay for it.
Two 2nds instead of a 1st & 2nd, but as stated, you clearly value Marshall as a mid-1st rounder so you're at least getting return on the value of the 1.06 spot.
If someone takes Green at 1.4 in a PPR no one would bat an eye. Solid enough pick. Yet in Marshall's last 3 full seasons he's had better fantasy seasons in each of those years than AJ Green has EVER had. Yet if someone took Marshall at 1.4 people would laugh at the dumb pick.
Similar with Dez who is now falling a bit with Romo out but before the Romo injury Dez had been going in that 4-10 range. I believe if you lined up all of Dez's fantasy seasons vs Marshalls and listed them in top 4 Marshall would have had the best, second best and 4th best seasons with Dez's best year slotting in third. Dax is now the QB and Dez still goes over Marshall in some drafts.
Robinson was great last season, he was still about 2.5 PPG under Marshalls production and similar to Dez if you lined up Robinsons season last year versus Marshalls past 3 full seasons Marshall would have had the best, second best and 4th best season with Robinson's year as third best. Robinson is younger and probably better than last season, also has more comp for targets and put up ton of production last year in junk mode.
Mike Evans is a good looking WR with a really nice playoff schedule. But even if you gave him similar yards/receptions of last year and gave him TD's of his rookie year he's not even close to Marshall's production in his last 3 full seasons.
Keenan Allen got off to an amazing start last year and it was still not as good as Marshall in per game. Allen also entered the league the same year as Jordan Reed and has played a grand total of 3 more games than him. Tons of people think Reed is biggest bust candidate of the year, due mainly to injury and yet I almost never hear this said about Allen.
Marshall was slightly better than Hopkins last season. Hopkins is ascending player and should have a nice QB updgrade but he's got a much higher risk of target regression due to other options. I would absolutely not pick Marshall over Hopkins but really is it that crazy?
I think the only issue with Marshall is his age. He's old, it is not a non-issue for me. Older players don't usually heal so quickly. Marshall looked great last season but sometimes older players don't regress so much as they dive off a cliff. So these things are possible but on the other hand Marshall lost weight and actually looks quicker than he did last season.
DaWidowMaker
Footballguy
Good stuff.
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DaWidowMaker
Footballguy
.the spanker
Footballguy
I don't understand why some people say Marshall is old but Peterson defies all scientific laws of man and will draft him in the first round.
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