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Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Brandon Marshall Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
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In his two previous years with Cutler, Marshall had over 100 receptions. I expect that to happen again. His talent is the same and so is Cutler's. While the team is different, Marshall is by far the #1 target and he thrives with a high number of targets. There doesn't appear to be any reason to suppose Marshall won't play all 16 games at this time, so I am assuming a full 16 game season.

100 receptions

at 12.6 ypc (his career average)

1260 yards

8 TDs

The TDs are the hardest to predict and have the greatest amount of unpredictability. Marshall's career average is 6 (TDs/games*16). And the leading receiver for the Bear's under Cutler has been around 5 or 6 TDs. So that is the safe bet. But I am bullish on the Bear's offense in general this year and so I expect Marshall to score a couple more than the leading Bear's receiver of recent years.

 
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I'm with Az Prof in that Marshall is an almost must have in PPR leagues as long as his ADP stays in the current range. Cutler and Marshall have rapport, and the Bears have no legitimate alternatives in the passing game. While rookie Alshon Jeffrey MAY have long-term potential, he's not ready to be a big contributor as a rookie, and even if he shocks it would be as the WR2 to Marshall's primary role.

 
If he stays on the field and doesn't kill anyone down in Millenium Park for looking at his wife funny, I think 90, 1300, and 8-12 is pretty reasonable.

 
I'm with Az Prof in that Marshall is an almost must have in PPR leagues as long as his ADP stays in the current range. Cutler and Marshall have rapport, and the Bears have no legitimate alternatives in the passing game. While rookie Alshon Jeffrey MAY have long-term potential, he's not ready to be a big contributor as a rookie, and even if he shocks it would be as the WR2 to Marshall's primary role.
I think Jeffrey will catch 50 balls this year. But you are right, this is going to be Marshall's show.
 
I'm with Az Prof in that Marshall is an almost must have in PPR leagues as long as his ADP stays in the current range. Cutler and Marshall have rapport, and the Bears have no legitimate alternatives in the passing game. While rookie Alshon Jeffrey MAY have long-term potential, he's not ready to be a big contributor as a rookie, and even if he shocks it would be as the WR2 to Marshall's primary role.
I think Jeffrey will catch 50 balls this year. But you are right, this is going to be Marshall's show.
I think you guys are both selling Earl Bennett short. Watch him put up 75-1000 and 6 TDs.
 
I'm with Az Prof in that Marshall is an almost must have in PPR leagues as long as his ADP stays in the current range. Cutler and Marshall have rapport, and the Bears have no legitimate alternatives in the passing game. While rookie Alshon Jeffrey MAY have long-term potential, he's not ready to be a big contributor as a rookie, and even if he shocks it would be as the WR2 to Marshall's primary role.
I think Jeffrey will catch 50 balls this year. But you are right, this is going to be Marshall's show.
I think you guys are both selling Earl Bennett short. Watch him put up 75-1000 and 6 TDs.
It's possible, but I don't think that's likely. The Bears clearly felt that the WR position was one of major need, which is why they went and acquired a WR1 with 100+ catch seasons under his belt, and then spent a high rookie pick on another pass catcher. Doesn't mean Bennett won't/can't contribute, but 1,000+ yards is hard to fathom, unless Jeffrey and Marshall miss a bunch of time.
 
I'm with Az Prof in that Marshall is an almost must have in PPR leagues as long as his ADP stays in the current range. Cutler and Marshall have rapport, and the Bears have no legitimate alternatives in the passing game. While rookie Alshon Jeffrey MAY have long-term potential, he's not ready to be a big contributor as a rookie, and even if he shocks it would be as the WR2 to Marshall's primary role.
I think Jeffrey will catch 50 balls this year. But you are right, this is going to be Marshall's show.
I think you guys are both selling Earl Bennett short. Watch him put up 75-1000 and 6 TDs.
It's possible, but I don't think that's likely. The Bears clearly felt that the WR position was one of major need, which is why they went and acquired a WR1 with 100+ catch seasons under his belt, and then spent a high rookie pick on another pass catcher. Doesn't mean Bennett won't/can't contribute, but 1,000+ yards is hard to fathom, unless Jeffrey and Marshall miss a bunch of time.
Good point Jason, but some other ways that could work.1) Earl Bennett missed a ton of time last year due to Bountygate(Roman Harper!) and it started early in the season...which affected his numbers2) Bennett will work the slot. With Marshall/Jeffery on the outside gaining lots of attention from defenses... perhaps Bennett will have one on one matchups in the middle of the field against worse CB/LB/S.I don't expect 1000 yards to happen...but I could see Jeffery being second on the team in TD receptions and Bennett second in receptions/yards at least this season.
 
I'm with Az Prof in that Marshall is an almost must have in PPR leagues as long as his ADP stays in the current range. Cutler and Marshall have rapport, and the Bears have no legitimate alternatives in the passing game. While rookie Alshon Jeffrey MAY have long-term potential, he's not ready to be a big contributor as a rookie, and even if he shocks it would be as the WR2 to Marshall's primary role.
I think Jeffrey will catch 50 balls this year. But you are right, this is going to be Marshall's show.
I think you guys are both selling Earl Bennett short. Watch him put up 75-1000 and 6 TDs.
It's possible, but I don't think that's likely. The Bears clearly felt that the WR position was one of major need, which is why they went and acquired a WR1 with 100+ catch seasons under his belt, and then spent a high rookie pick on another pass catcher. Doesn't mean Bennett won't/can't contribute, but 1,000+ yards is hard to fathom, unless Jeffrey and Marshall miss a bunch of time.
Good point Jason, but some other ways that could work.1) Earl Bennett missed a ton of time last year due to Bountygate(Roman Harper!) and it started early in the season...which affected his numbers2) Bennett will work the slot. With Marshall/Jeffery on the outside gaining lots of attention from defenses... perhaps Bennett will have one on one matchups in the middle of the field against worse CB/LB/S.I don't expect 1000 yards to happen...but I could see Jeffery being second on the team in TD receptions and Bennett second in receptions/yards at least this season.
Absolutely. There are lots of ways things could go, and Bennett (like Marshall) has history with Cutler from their days at Vandy. I would probably expect Forte -- if healthy and not holding out -- to be second in receptions though.
 
Despite the circus show that Brandon Marshall has provided during his career, one hallmark of it is his consistency. Despite QB issues over the past 3 seasons he’ll get you 1250/7 if he plays all 16 games. That’s what his per game production over the last 5 season extrapolates out to over a 16 game season. And now he re-unites with Jay Cutler as his unquestionable #1 target.

The problem as I see it though is that the CHI with Cutler under center simply hasn’t been all that productive, much less prolific. While many remember Cutler’s 2008 season as his coming out party, it remains his sole season where he eclipsed 3700 yards passing (4526 in 2008). He’s entering his 7th NFL season. And to get 4526 passing yards, he required 616 pass attempts.

Cutler by in large has not proven himself to be all that efficient a QB. There is no doubt the personnel he’s had to work with has been subpar, both in terms of receivers and O-Line. And playing home games in CHI come Nov/Dec is a disadvantage also. But I see little to suggest that just because Marshall and Cutler have been reunited that the Bears are going to be a significantly different team in terms of how they structure their offense. Pass protection IMO still appears to be an issue. While Alshon Jeffrey was a solid pick in Round 2, will he be able to provide 2012 impact to Marshall that would significantly alter the way teams defend the Bears? In a lot of ways, the situation Marshall walks into in CHI is quite similar to the one he walked into in MIA 2 years ago – a team that was more run-centric looking for a boost to its passing game without any real/established complimentary weapons.

Marshall’s production in 2011 also featured an aberration that I’m projecting won’t be replicated…his 15 YPR average. The previous 3 seasons, Marshall averaged 11.68 YPR, so the 3.32 YPR increase is something that can’t be discounted. Fact of the matter is that Marshall was far more effective in the 21+ yard reception area than he’d been in his career in 2011 (13/459/3). The previous 3 seasons, Marshall had only produced to a 16/559/4 level. So if I’m a betting man, I suspect Marshall reverts back to 2011 form in this area…

I think Marshall was a shrewder acquisition for CHI than many are giving them credit for. Despite the night club incident at the time of his acquisition, I do think Marshall has started to control his demons and that his headline making days off the field may be over. And I do think he'll help improve their passing game. But I don’t think Marshall is a player that can completely revamp an offense from one personality to another. Marshall took a little while to adapt to a new setting the last time he changed teams, even though this time – he’s familiar with Cutler. At the end of the day, Marshall represents a high floor/low ceiling play. He’s eclipsed 7 TD’s just once in his career so if he got to 8-9 TD’s, that would be at the high end of his bell curve.

FFC has Marshall at WR8, and quite frankly, I think his ceiling is WR12/13, much like it was last year. What he gains in reception total, I think he’ll lose in YPR.

Prediction: 97 receptions 1120 receiving yards, 7 TD’s

 
As predictable as death and taxes at this point...

90-ish catches, 1,200-ish yards, 6-7 TDs.

If the Bears can get better pass protection this season, I could see him cracking double digit TDs again. Would likely mean a near automatic 100-catch year too.

 
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At his current ADP, Marshall is a must buy. Lock for 95+ catches with Cutler slinging the rock. Can he stay out of trouble?

100 rec, 1250 yards, 8 TD

 
37 receptions, 500 yards , and 3 td's during the season.

80 receptions, 1400 yards, and 10 td's in the Pro Bowl.

 
IMO Marshall finishes as the #3 WR for ppr leagues (behind Calvin and Welker- I see Andre missing some games). He has a schedule advantage because he doesn't face any shut down corners. No revis or nnamdi. No hayden. Not even flowers. Doesn't face pitt or balt either. Outside of Jonathan Joseph, he'll face off vs secondaries and corners he can crush each week. He even plays Joseph at home on Sunday Night Football. Marshall tends to get up for those nationally televised games. His fantasy playoff schedule involves 2 road games in domes (vikings and cards) and a home game vs the Packers. It is likely the Bears throw more to keep up with the Pack. I understand that things change in season (i.e hayden and joseph were considered good, but became more elite last season) but there isn't really a secondary on his schedule that would have you doubting him as a top 10 wr option in any week. In 2007 cutler threw only 467 passes and marshall still had over 100 catches. Even with a heavier running attack in chicago ( and I understand Bush will add to that) Cutler still had 31.4 passes per game, last season which would come out to 502.4 passes. There will be plenty of opportunities for Marshall to once again get over 100 receptions. At 6-4, 230 pounds with great hands and ball skills, once of these years Marshall is going to get over 10 tds ( he did in 2009). Sometimes touchdowns can be a somewhat fluky/difficult thing to predict. Outside of the Randy Mosses and Calvin Johnson of the world, most players aren't these automatic td machines. Fitzgerald only had 8 last season. Andre Johnson never had 10, etc etc. So, just because Marshall hasn't been a td machine doesn't mean he can't easily get over 10. He has the body and hands for it, as stated. I doubt his 15 ypc comes close to a repeat, but I see a massive year for Marshall.

16 games

6.5 rec per game

81.5 yards per game

104 receptions

1304 yards

10 tds

12.54 ypc

#3 WR

 
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Are there any updates on a possible suspension for Marshall? I haven't heard anything since the arrest in March, and it seems no one is mentioning anything.

That's my big concern with him as a wr1

 
How can anyone not buy into Marshall this year? That schedule is cake with the. AfC S NFC W and NFC N twice. Det; GB and Minny will be bottom 5 in the league in pass D and both Det and GB games will be shootouts where Bears will need to throw the rock.

 
I took his as the top receiver off the board in a keeper league. My other options were Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, and a few other highly ranked guys.

The more I hear about him in Chicago, and the more I remember his last stint with Cutler, the more excited I get about his prospects.

I don't think Cutler will have a huge season, as I think the game will go through Forte and Bush, but this situation kind of reminds me of the year that Steve Smith blew up in Carolina with a massive year. I could see a Cutler read going...

Read 1 - Marshall

Read 2 - Forte

Read 3 - Marshall

Read 4 - Scramble around, look for Marshall again

Read 5 - If he isn't sacked yet, look for someone else.

 
Chicago's schedule is slightly more difficult than it was last year (for WRs). That being said, I have BM pretty high as well.

 
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I just think Cutler is going to look to him more as a safety blanket than anything else. Reports out of training camp have been high thus far. Granted, every team has a glowing report in some respects, but Marshall and Cutler are dynamic together. My $ is on it continuing.

 

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