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Braylon Edwards vs. Denver (1 Viewer)
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This_Is_Not_VRR
Footballguy
I'm not expecting much. Although I still think Champ can be exploited on long pass plays.
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Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
2 words-
Bad Matchup
Bad Matchup
packersfan
Footballguy
It's definitely a bad matchup but Edwards' best game this season came against the best defense he has faced (Baltimore's).
Just saying.
Just saying.
I dont think its a good matchup, but its an important matchup to see what Edwards is made of. Coming off the bye Cleveland has had 2 weeks to gameplan against this defense. I've got to choose between Cotchery and Edwards and im leaning towards Cotchery against Det, but i'll end up watching a lot more of the Cleveland game either way because i want to see if Edwards is ready to take the next step. The top recievers in the league still post numbers against top CBs, not their best numbers, but not goose-eggs.
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
-OZ-
Footballguy
Kit Fisto
Footballguy
You're trying to tell me that on Week 7, with 6 teams on a bye, you have a better option than Braylon Edwards?
FFdork
Footballguy
I'm benching him for Greg Jennings. If I didn't have Jennings I would roll the dice instead of subbing in the Wes Welkers of the world. Champ is good, but he's not the second coming of Prime Time. It's a tough matchup, but it only takes 1 or 2 plays for him to have a productive fantasy day.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Honestly, there's few people here who are bigger fans of Braylon, but I'm benching him this week for Roy, Evans, Jennings and J. Walker. Although I can see him outscoring them. (also benching Hines Ward FWIW)
packersfan
Footballguy
That's my feeling too. The matchup stinks but so did the one against the Ravens and Edwards had a huge game that week. I could sit him and pick up someone off the WW like Samie Parker, Booker, Wilford or Michael Clayton who all have better matchups (excluding Parker). And maybe one or all of them will outperform Edwards this week. The kicker is all of those guys have been pretty terrible this season with the exception of Parker, whose matchup isn't real good by any means. Edwards may not go off this week and if a WW receiver I could have had does that will hurt. But I think he has the least chance to hurt me and with his talent he just needs one or two big catches to at least have a decent day. I'll take that over the alternatives. In a start-two WR league, though, I think benching him is pretty much a given unless your WRs are real bad or you're really hurting due to the bye week.
I'm going with Branch & Moss. The one time I sat Moss I lost (and he had his best game). I hate him...........You're trying to tell me that on Week 7, with 6 teams on a bye, you have a better option than Braylon Edwards?
PahtyTom
Footballguy
Oddly enough, #1 WRs actually have faired pretty well vs. Denver.
Cotchery is a good example. I think there are guys like that who are better plays this week.The other post saying that Denver has surrendered decent points to #1 WR's is interesting. Any numbers to back that up?
packersfan
Footballguy
I don't have a dominant team by any measure, but I never really gave any consideration to playing him over Chambers or Evans. Probably my 4th WR (and only play 2).You're trying to tell me that on Week 7, with 6 teams on a bye, you have a better option than Braylon Edwards?
PahtyTom
Footballguy
It's relative to the competition my friends.Holt season avg 87.7 ypgKennison season avg 48.8 ypgGabriel season avg 32.3 ypgMason season avg 62 ypgMoss season avg 44.4 ypgHe's allowed 304 yards to a group that has averaged 275.2. Overall, Bailey has pretty much allowed #1 WRs as a whole to play slightly above their season average.
ATC1
Footballguy
Denver is the #2 defense in the league in fantasy points per game for WRs (interestingly, Oakland is #1. Good thing to keep an eye on- it appears Oaland isnt the prime matchup for passing offenses one would think). Here are Denvers breakdowns against each teams top WR to date:
Week 1: Torry Holt, 8FPs, averages 16.7
Week 2: Eddie Kennison, 3FPs, averages 5.4
Week 3: Troy Brown, 4FPS, averages 5.4
Week 5: Mark Clayton, 2FPS, averages 6.7
(or Mason if you prefer- 4 FPs, averages 5.2)
Week 6: Randy Moss, 8FPs, averages 6.4
Overall Denver has given up 25 FPs to #1 WRs, who would average 40.6 FPs in general. If the trend holds you can expect Edwards to scored 62% of his weekly average, or 5.3 FPs.
What have we learned here today?
Aside from St Louis, Denver has played 4 of the 6 worst offenses in FPs for their WRs this season. Cleveland is the 3rd worst- all they need would be Atlanta to complete the set. Denver is tough against all passing, particularly wide recievers. WR1s arent fairing any better at all. Denver hasnt played a legitimately hot passing team since week 1 (and St Louis wasnt all the at hot then), but Cleveland is a bad passing team as well. This would seem to fit right into Denvers comfort zone. I wouldnt expect big things from Brayl Edwards this week.
Week 1: Torry Holt, 8FPs, averages 16.7
Week 2: Eddie Kennison, 3FPs, averages 5.4
Week 3: Troy Brown, 4FPS, averages 5.4
Week 5: Mark Clayton, 2FPS, averages 6.7
(or Mason if you prefer- 4 FPs, averages 5.2)
Week 6: Randy Moss, 8FPs, averages 6.4
Overall Denver has given up 25 FPs to #1 WRs, who would average 40.6 FPs in general. If the trend holds you can expect Edwards to scored 62% of his weekly average, or 5.3 FPs.
What have we learned here today?
Aside from St Louis, Denver has played 4 of the 6 worst offenses in FPs for their WRs this season. Cleveland is the 3rd worst- all they need would be Atlanta to complete the set. Denver is tough against all passing, particularly wide recievers. WR1s arent fairing any better at all. Denver hasnt played a legitimately hot passing team since week 1 (and St Louis wasnt all the at hot then), but Cleveland is a bad passing team as well. This would seem to fit right into Denvers comfort zone. I wouldnt expect big things from Brayl Edwards this week.
PahtyTom
Footballguy
Good point but Gabriel was lined up opposite Bailey most of the night week 3 when on the field, and Mason week 5. I prefer yards as a better predictor of future fantasy performance over TDs, or lack there of, because they can be the result of luck a great deal of the time. That said, I certainly believe you have a valid point that everyone should consider when making their decisions.I think Bailey is the best corner in the NFL hands down, but because Denver puts him on an island for most of the game which almost no other CBs in the NFL do anymore, he is bound to give up some plays over the course of the game and that is what has happened so far.
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you're all making me think about starting Braylon over Willis McGahee as a flex. 
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Maybe it was my wishful thinking that C. Bailey would focus some on K. Winslow leaving Edwards alone here and there 
Not gonna happen is it?
Not gonna happen is it?
packersfan
Footballguy
Denver's LBs are real good. I'd imagine the Broncos will let the LBs and safeties cover Winslow and Bailey will take Edwards. The question is whether Champ will follow Bailey all over the field. If Champ just lines up on one side of the field, then the Browns would be smart to move Edwards around to try and gain a positive matchup elsewhere. The Broncos may feel they're so good defensively they don't need to have Bailey lock up on Edwards the entire game and can just keep Bailey on one side of the field and essentially remove that as an option for Frye in the passing game.Maybe it was my wishful thinking that C. Bailey would focus some on K. Winslow leaving Edwards alone here and there
SSOG
Moderator
He *WILL NOT* be covered by Champ most of the night.Last season, Denver was blitzing a lot, so they put Champ on an island against the opposition's #1 guy. This season, Denver is playing a lot more base defense, so with relatively few exceptions they're just putting Bailey on the defensive left side (the side Right-handed QBs most prefer to go to) and leaving him there all game. Some plays he'll be matched against the #1, some plays he'll be matched against the #2, it all depends on how the offense lines up.There have been a few exceptions (on the Int against Oakland he was lined up on the defensive right side, and Walters threw over there because he didn't realize Bailey was waiting), but I'd say 90+% of the time he just lines up on the defensive left and covers whoever happens to be over there. I'd expect to see Braylon covered by Bailey maybe 50% of the time.
Bailey's been pretty tough on everyone. Only two passes have been completed on him for more than 10 yards, and he wound up ending both of those drives with an INT in the red zone. Regardless, Darrent Williams and Dominique Foxworth are doing a lot of the work in keeping the #1s pretty quiet, too.packersfan said:
SSOG
Moderator
Actually, Bailey hasn't gone 1-on-1 vs. a Tight End very much in quite a while now. Two years ago, he did it pretty much exclusively, but last year with his injured shoulder Denver didn't think he could be physical enough to hold up with some of the bigger TEs, so Denver started using a "big nickle" defense (2 CBs and 3 Safeties) and having the extra safety cover (or at least help cover) the TE. It worked pretty well. So far this season, Denver's been continuing with that strategy. Bailey hasn't matched up very much against Gonzo or Heap- instead, Denver's relying on their speedy LBs and their solid #3 Safety (Sam Brandon) to take them out of the game.Maybe it was my wishful thinking that C. Bailey would focus some on K. Winslow leaving Edwards alone here and there
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
SSOG is correct, however the reason they've had Bailey over there is that the team has yet to face very many WRs who are playing especially well - as I recall from the St Lou game, Bailey was on Holt the ENTIRE game, regardless of where Holt lined up.
Liopleurodon
Footballguy
Not THAT well. The only receiver to score a TD against Denver was Gabriel. Bailey may not be the best who's ever played, but he may be the best in the league right now.I'd only start Edwards if I had nobody else remotely worth the start.PahtyTom said:
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I dont i traded for him this week, cause I was going to have to play WelkerYou're trying to tell me that on Week 7, with 6 teams on a bye, you have a better option than Braylon Edwards?
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
You mean you were being serious?Braylon Edwards is not a "stud".You're trying to tell me that on Week 7, with 6 teams on a bye, you have a better option than Braylon Edwards?
SSOG
Moderator
My recollections from the St. Louis game are very different. I definitely remember Bailey seeing a lot of time on Bruce, and I also remember Bulger being very reluctant to throw to Holt with Bailey in coverage. The only two passes that I think were completed to Holt with Bailey in coverage were both short outs (~6 yards). All of the rest of Holt's catches came against someone other than Bailey, and I'm absolutely positive that Bailey spent some time covering Bruce.Since my memory has such a bad track record, I decided to check the play-by-play. I know it's not the perfect solution, but you can usually get a pretty good idea of what's going on from it.Champ Bailey was involved in the following plays:1-10-STL24 (11:30) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt ran ob at SL 31 for 7 yards (C.Bailey).2-8-DEN8 (4:28) M.Bulger pass short middle to S.Jackson to DEN 7 for 1 yard (C.Bailey). Penalty on SL-A.McCollum, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.3-5-DEN29 (14:57) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt to DEN 24 for 5 yards (C.Bailey).3-10-DEN24 (14:08) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short middle to I.Bruce to DEN 20 for 4 yards (C.Bailey).3-16-DEN35 (12:18) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short right to S.Jackson to DEN 30 for 5 yards (C.Bailey).3-14-STL8 (10:38) M.Bulger pass short right to S.Jackson to SL 11 for 3 yards (C.Bailey).2-10-STL26 (9:32) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt to SL 30 for 4 yards (C.Bailey).2-6-DEN43 (2:00) S.Jackson right tackle pushed ob at DEN 6 for 37 yards (C.Bailey).Looking at that list, it seems to support my memory of the game- a couple of rinky-dink outs against Bailey (3 to Holt, rather than the 2 that I remembered), and a lot of textbook openfield tackles on running plays and passes out to the flat. Also, notice that Bailey isn't involved in a single play described as going to the left.Out of curiousity, here are all the plays that Torry Holt was involved in.1-10-STL24 (11:30) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt ran ob at SL 31 for 7 yards (C.Bailey).2-10-DEN30 (7:09) M.Bulger pass short left to T.Holt to DEN 23 for 7 yards (A.Wilson).3-16-DEN16
35) M.Bulger pass incomplete short middle to T.Holt.3-5-DEN29 (14:57) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt to DEN 24 for 5 yards (C.Bailey).1-10-DEN24 (14:17) M.Bulger pass incomplete deep left to T.Holt.2-10-DEN24 (14:11) M.Bulger pass incomplete short right to T.Holt (I.Gold).2-2-STL37 (7:39) M.Bulger pass to T.Holt pushed ob at DEN 40 for 23 yards (Da.Williams). SL-A.McCollum was injured during the play.1-10-STL34 (14:52) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt to DEN 49 for 17 yards (A.Wilson).2-18-STL46 (6:36) M.Bulger pass incomplete short left to T.Holt.2-12-STL33 (4:32) M.Bulger pass deep left to T.Holt pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (Da.Williams).3-19-STL41 (2:41) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass deep left to T.Holt ran ob at DEN 39 for 20 yards (N.Ferguson). Play Challenged by DEN and REVERSED. (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass incomplete deep left to T.Holt.3-4-STL26 (13:05) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass incomplete short left to T.Holt.2-10-STL26 (9:32) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt to SL 30 for 4 yards (C.Bailey).2-6-DEN6 (6:39) M.Bulger pass incomplete short middle to T.Holt.Once again, the PbP indicates that Denver had Bailey on the offensive right (defensive left) and Darrent Williams on the offensive left (defensive right) for the entire game, just like they did against KC, New England, and Baltimore.Like I said, it's not the best way to get game-data, but I think there's enough evidence there to suggest that Bailey was manning his side rather than shadowing Holt. The fact that Steven Jackson runs to the left frequently resulted in a tackle by Darrent Williams further supports the theory.
packersfan
Footballguy
I'll go back to the point I made earlier - I think the Broncos believe their defense is strong enough that they don't have to have Bailey shadow Edwards. They can simply keep him on one side of the field and thereby remove that from consideration on passing downs (this will also be effective whenever Winslow ventures into that area as well). In terms of Edwards' fantasy potential this actually will help him in my opinion since it means he won't have to worry about being locked up on Bailey the entire game. He'll have some favorable matchups. Whether Frye will have the time to get him the ball and whether Edwards can take advantage is the question. One thing seems certain - the Browns will try to get Edwards deep. They've tried that against every defense they have faced and only Carolina has shown the ability to prevent him from making plays downfield. So it's not out of the question to think Edwards could hit for one big play downfield.
Overall, I think a TD is going to be very difficult (if I had to project a TD from a Cleveland receiver I'd actually be more inclined to pick Jurevicius) for Edwards. I think a game of 4-5 receptions for 50-60 yards is looking realistic. At worst, he catches 2-3 passes for 30 yards or so. I'm starting him as my WR3 knowing full well this could get real ugly but I believe his floor is higher than the WW options I listed earlier even if his ceiling this week is lower as well.
Overall, I think a TD is going to be very difficult (if I had to project a TD from a Cleveland receiver I'd actually be more inclined to pick Jurevicius) for Edwards. I think a game of 4-5 receptions for 50-60 yards is looking realistic. At worst, he catches 2-3 passes for 30 yards or so. I'm starting him as my WR3 knowing full well this could get real ugly but I believe his floor is higher than the WW options I listed earlier even if his ceiling this week is lower as well.
My recollections from the St. Louis game are very different. I definitely remember Bailey seeing a lot of time on Bruce, and I also remember Bulger being very reluctant to throw to Holt with Bailey in coverage. The only two passes that I think were completed to Holt with Bailey in coverage were both short outs (~6 yards). All of the rest of Holt's catches came against someone other than Bailey, and I'm absolutely positive that Bailey spent some time covering Bruce.Since my memory has such a bad track record, I decided to check the play-by-play. I know it's not the perfect solution, but you can usually get a pretty good idea of what's going on from it.Champ Bailey was involved in the following plays:1-10-STL24 (11:30) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt ran ob at SL 31 for 7 yards (C.Bailey).2-8-DEN8 (4:28) M.Bulger pass short middle to S.Jackson to DEN 7 for 1 yard (C.Bailey). Penalty on SL-A.McCollum, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.3-5-DEN29 (14:57) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt to DEN 24 for 5 yards (C.Bailey).3-10-DEN24 (14:08) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short middle to I.Bruce to DEN 20 for 4 yards (C.Bailey).3-16-DEN35 (12:18) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short right to S.Jackson to DEN 30 for 5 yards (C.Bailey).3-14-STL8 (10:38) M.Bulger pass short right to S.Jackson to SL 11 for 3 yards (C.Bailey).2-10-STL26 (9:32) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt to SL 30 for 4 yards (C.Bailey).2-6-DEN43 (2:00) S.Jackson right tackle pushed ob at DEN 6 for 37 yards (C.Bailey).Looking at that list, it seems to support my memory of the game- a couple of rinky-dink outs against Bailey (3 to Holt, rather than the 2 that I remembered), and a lot of textbook openfield tackles on running plays and passes out to the flat. Also, notice that Bailey isn't involved in a single play described as going to the left.Out of curiousity, here are all the plays that Torry Holt was involved in.1-10-STL24 (11:30) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt ran ob at SL 31 for 7 yards (C.Bailey).2-10-DEN30 (7:09) M.Bulger pass short left to T.Holt to DEN 23 for 7 yards (A.Wilson).3-16-DEN16
research+facts
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(HULK)
(Smash)
Opps!
Buckychudd
Footballguy
You mean you were being serious?Braylon Edwards is not a "stud".You're trying to tell me that on Week 7, with 6 teams on a bye, you have a better option than Braylon Edwards?
Your stud-o-meter needs recalibrating.It never fails to astonish me how many teams in the league arent using simple tools like motions and changing up personel to confuse defenses. If you look at the good teams in the league, they do those kinds of things. If you look at the Oaklands, Dallas, Arizona, and Clevelands of the league, they cant get the matchups they want, which means they hold the ball too long, which means sacks and turnovers. Do the math. You cant just line up your best WRs and have them beat defenses anymore, defenses are too fast and scheme too well. It is imperative that an offense creates favorable matchups, and there are plenty of ways to do that.
The Patriots especially have proved that providing more targets is preferrable to providing more blocking. Think about it, would you rather have more targets the defense cant cover or more blockers that still cant stop all the blitzers. Its a matter of the truism that the guy who knows where he is going has the advantage of the guy who is guessing. A TE or fullback blocking is guessing where the pressure is coming from. A TE of fullback in a pass pattern forces the defense to guess where they are going. Its always better to have the initiative and make the other guy make the perfect play. But it requires a QB that can make good fast decisions and take the short passes over a rocket arm- but this isnt a choice in todays NFL... If Bledsoe to TO and Glenn cant regularly beat a decent defense before a sack, the entire scheme must be flawed. On the other hand if you flood the field with receivers your top guys are going to have more room to work and the quick dump offs will slow the pass rush down ironically giving you more time to hit the big play.
PS- any team that doesnt have a screen play on the front page of their menu should be sent down to Canada.
The Patriots especially have proved that providing more targets is preferrable to providing more blocking. Think about it, would you rather have more targets the defense cant cover or more blockers that still cant stop all the blitzers. Its a matter of the truism that the guy who knows where he is going has the advantage of the guy who is guessing. A TE or fullback blocking is guessing where the pressure is coming from. A TE of fullback in a pass pattern forces the defense to guess where they are going. Its always better to have the initiative and make the other guy make the perfect play. But it requires a QB that can make good fast decisions and take the short passes over a rocket arm- but this isnt a choice in todays NFL... If Bledsoe to TO and Glenn cant regularly beat a decent defense before a sack, the entire scheme must be flawed. On the other hand if you flood the field with receivers your top guys are going to have more room to work and the quick dump offs will slow the pass rush down ironically giving you more time to hit the big play.
PS- any team that doesnt have a screen play on the front page of their menu should be sent down to Canada.
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Buckychudd
Footballguy
FFdork
Footballguy
I should have said it takes 1-2 plays, an accurate throw or some game planning to get him some matchups. Apparently none of those things were in the cards yesterday.
packersfan
Footballguy
It's fundamental football in a lot of ways. In this thread I talked about how having Bailey isolated on one side of the field could help Edwards if the Browns lined him up elsewhere to get a more favorable matchup. But Carthon did nothing creative to free up Edwards (or Winslow). It was really a poor job of coaching in a lot of ways.Back to Edwards, with back-to-back putrid games his fantasy stock is really slipping. If he doesn't step up against the Jets next Sunday it'll be pretty hard to start him again anytime soon.
Yeah but you've got a guy with tons of talent going against the top CB. You "have to" have him learn. He realized this move doesn't work, that move didn't work, if I did this or that.....now Romeo's got a young extremely talented player hitting up every coach for advice. I've never read of him being shut down so his mind is probably "blown away" right now. Good, let him learn. As for W-L, Winslow could have been used more. He's a handful to cover. Weis, with the Pats, had Brady hit Branch right away at the snap. This helps the WR keep the CB on edge. Plus just catching the ball can do wonders for a WRs confidence. IMO Romeo should have had Frye do that. Frye, similarly, may(didn't see but probably) have had a pass or two he could have snuck in there even with Champ's tight coverage. He needs to hear that for his own development.All in all, I don't see that he nor Carthon made a big mistake here.I guess best I can say is suppose Cutler goes in and doesn't hit Rod all day because a good CB is blanketting him. You'd want to get that gunshy stuff out of his system so next time he finds a way, right? It'd be frustrating as you know Rod's an integral part of the O right? But it's a necessary evil in Cutler's development. There are ways to throw it to a spot where only the WR can get it, outside lobs and darts when the CB turns and such. Risky but if the WR is your "bread and butter" ya gotta get it to him. You can't have your best weapon out of the game before the game starts.SSOG said:
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Perhaps my biggest lineup error ever.Note to self: start your studs, and Hines Ward is a stud.I am of the school that a guy learns more when he isnt being shut down. What did he learn except that he is no match for Champ Bailey? Marvin Harrison managed to become an alright reciever with a system that got him lots of good matchups, id say. I'm thinking you learn to be a good reciever by making good plays in a good offense. Sure, you learn some things beating the odds in a stupid offense. Things like the fact that you are on a dead-end team where your efforts go for nothing.
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