rockaction
Footballguy
I totally want him, but he's already cost me two or three titles and massive headaches. I love rooting for the guy, but with an ADP of 6th Round, it's not something that's going to get done.
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Breaking - Josh Gordon to be reinstated (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Penguin
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Insoxicated
Dez
Footballguy
Ya because it has been so much fun having him on my team the past few years.............
3nOut
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree - which means White should again be a PPR value pick.Dr. Octopus said:
I’m almost more intrigued by Demaryius Thomas if he comes back capable - he’s seemingly better suited to Brady’s current skill set.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Well it's only wasting a pick if he misses games and thats still tbd. When he plays, you know what you're getting. He put up good stats with the Pats only a few weeks after they acquired him. Now, somehow he's one of the most tenured wide receivers on the team.
The myth of assurance, safety, or lack thereof leads people astray in this game, imo. Everybody is at risk to miss games. Back in May, nobody thought Zeke or Melvin Gordon would miss time, now it's looking like a real possibility. Same for Golden Tate or Le'Veon Bell last year, Andrew Luck 2017.
It's not what you don't know that will kill you, it's what you think you know.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The potential issue for Gordon is in prior years, he was a last round dart throw (or a really late round pick). He was easily jettisoned if / once he was suspended. He put up OK numbers in NE last year. He essentially was a flex play / mediocre WR3 with WR2 upside.
The issue now is that he will be drafted as a WR2 / WR3, which is essentially him getting drafted at his upside. Given the way NE schemes and spreads the ball around (both running and passing), it's unlikely he would approach WR1 numbers. So people will be drafting him at his potential max production levels (with no consideration for risk). I live in NE, so he will probably go around WR15, which is just looking for disappointment.
The advanced stats and metrics out there on Gordon are somewhat misleading. She, he averaged more yards per target than other NE players have . . . but without a ton more targets he won't do appreciably better. Edelman and White are going to be the target monsters. And many people are suggesting the Pats are now a run first team. Bottom line for redraft leagues, more than likely he will be getting drafted as a fantasy starter (in start 3 WR leagues), and that is likely too high.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Fair assessment. I agree the ypt thing arises from having a few targets, and isn't entirely indicative of his performance. But, when we already knew the amount of talent he had before, it's more or less just confirmation. He put up these stats only after playing a few games there. That usually doesn't happen especially in New England. Having been in the system now his 2nd year, you'd expect him to only improve, perhaps establishing himself as reliable for Brady. Long story short, I don't consider last year's numbers his ceiling at all. He could very well improve those target numbers.
At a minimum, last year he was a wide receiver 3-4. I'd say that's his floor when he plays. Decent floor, unimaginable upside.
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Encumbrance
Footballguy
I think it depends on your league composition but people drafted him awfully early again last year. It was too early for his return on draft capital.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Everyone remembers the numbers he put up 6 years ago, but I am not sure this year's version is the same player. But one thing I am sure of is the 2019 Patriots are not the 2013 Browns. With Cleveland that year, they forced the ball to Gordon . . . he saw almost 12 targets a game. In NE last year, he saw 6. And at 42, I don't think Brady is going to air it out a ton (or force feed the ball to Gordon). I think Gordon helps out the rest of the offense much more than the offense helps Gordon.
So IMO, Gordon's floor for me is lower, his ceiling is WAY lower, and his risk is much higher than with other players. But someone in most leagues will think he will return to 2013 form and take him pretty early. The counter argument will be that in any given game he could go off for 9-190-3. Except I doubt we see a week like that (and other weeks he will be a WR4). I think if he comes back and has a big game, I would trade him while his value would be at its highest point in years and cash out for what I could if the offer was good.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I don't think the Patriots are about to throw the ball 700 times like the Browns did in 2013.
He did play pretty well in the 11 games for NE last year though.
11 games 68 targets 40 receptions 720 yards 3 TD
For fantasy football 11 games is a decent sample size to work from. Over 16 games this would be 99 targets 58 receptions 1047 yards 4 TD
I won't touch Gordon with an 11 foot pole in fantasy but I can see how it might work out. Gordon is 28 years old now. Maybe he has finally gotten all the partying out of his system?
Although Anarchy is emphasizing caution with Gordon, he did draft him yesterday at pick 189 of a 16 team league. So there is a point where he sees Gordon as having value. His comments about the pick do not inspire confidence though.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Dez
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
It means that the Patriots have their own set of standards that are different from the league's.
It also means that even if the league decides to stop penalizing recreational drug and alcohol use as harshly, the team mat still impose their own standards.
I don't think it means that they've seen a failed test or some other incident - there would be no reason for the league to reinstate him.
They are the kind of team that puts players on the pup list or nfi list until they prove they're actually in shape and even though brady threw him a few offseason passes, they are willing to go into the season without him.
This is a clear message that the ball is in his court if he wants to play again. In my opinion.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
Its not about punishment. They've put Edelman on the nfi or pup list before, including this year. He's the reigning superbowl mvp. They've put countless star players and free agent acquisitions on the pup list for failing their conditioning tests (and they're hardly the only team that does this).
I think people expected that when Gordon came back he'd be back practicing immediately because they need him. Belichick released a statement saying no, he's not. Up until now this was strictly a league matter but he still has to go through the process for our team. That's not a punishment- they're just enforcing their standards.
I don't know enough about his time with Cleveland to say whether the same was true there.
Sorry. Been away for a bit for work. To answer your questions...Yes to PPR, I took Preston Williams at 5.11 of my rookie draft, $150 buy in, and yes Cole Beasley is available (9th best available WR according to our Fantrax league settings).
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I wonder how DThomas coming off the PUP is going to impact the speed with which the Pats work Gordon back into the fold?
given Brady’s (current) arm & DT’s route running ability/hands I think he might actually be a better fit for what the Pats do.
Maybe it has no impact, but if DT is good to go, that’s one more mouth to feed. Worth considering if you’re a Gordon prospector.
given Brady’s (current) arm & DT’s route running ability/hands I think he might actually be a better fit for what the Pats do.
Maybe it has no impact, but if DT is good to go, that’s one more mouth to feed. Worth considering if you’re a Gordon prospector.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
I think you may be reading too much into it. ALL OF IT, the entire program, Brady's involvement, the handler, ALL OF IT, is part of the Patriots way of handling this. That was all they were saying. You would be crazy to think he doesn't start game 1.
All they did by (likely) instructing him to apply for reinstatement when he did was to let him essentially skip training camp. He could have applied for reinstatement months ago. Clearly that was part of the program. That is probably why Brady was throwing with him earlier last month. When you think about it....
But if you think any of what JG has done is not under the direction of the Patriots right now, I think you are underestimating the value the Patriots are putting on him. They completely remade their WR corps in his image if you noticed. They obviously saw things they liked.
Dismattle
Footballguy
@Soulfly3 You wanna fill me in here? WR2? Dynasty so he never left for me Really no plan to start until I see production/usage You and/or most starting week 1??? I'm not so sure the "reinstatement" even allows to play in a game I mean I have options and all But let's say our boy Evans is actually out? What's the deal here? 1st week 1TD/75 yd's or naw
I completely agree with you in theory but IMO any type of meaningful impact from DT is a long way off...Brady has always needed complete trust in his receivers...unless its total love at first sight DT and Brady are a few thousand reps away from that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He seems exactly like the “cagey veteran” the Pats have spent a decade resurrecting the careers of.
I’d be willing to bet DT has a significant role in this offense by week 5, given a clean bill of health.
Agree about the reps/trust factor, but in that light Brady is more likely to trust veteran DT’s hands than a bunch of rookies.
Yes. But this is a Gordon thread.He seems exactly like the “cagey veteran” the Pats have spent a decade resurrecting the careers of.
I’d be willing to bet DT has a significant role in this offense by week 5, given a clean bill of health.
Agree about the reps/trust factor, but in that light Brady is more likely to trust veteran DT’s hands than a bunch of rookies.
Cagey veteran or not, you think DT fresh off an achilles tear is going to cannabalize Gordon's stats? If anything, he'll help them by extending drives, etc. Maybe be a quasi-Gronk replacement. He's not going to be a downfield threat at all.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If I can figure out how to post things properly, here is the entirety of how Josh Gordon has performed across the past 5 seasons. The numbers are his weekly fantasy rankings using PPR scoring. An X indicates he did not play.
2018 50 X X 80 29 51 24 51 5 25 36 21 22 85 X X
2017 X X X X X X X X X X X 28 24 39 77 20
2016 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
2015 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
2014 X X X X X X X X X X 12 32 86 53 57 X
To summarize, he played in 22 games and missed 58 games. In the games he actually played in, he ranked:
Top 10: 1 time out of 22 games (4.5%)
Top 20: 3 times out of 22 games (13.6%)
Top 30: 10 times out of 22 games (45.4%)
Top 40: 13 times out of 22 games (59.1%)
Not Top 40: 9 times out of 22 games (41%)
The point being, 2013 was a long time ago, and the preponderance of the evidence reflects that Josh Gordon has not been an uber stud WR in a long, long time. I get that people will explain away how things will be different this time around. He wasn't bad and in fact was borderline decent for a stretch of 5 weeks last year. He's got Brady throwing him the ball compared to the flotsam and jetsam he had in Cleveland.
I am just as guilty as everyone else. I drafted Gordon the other day (but as the 66th WR off the board when the news of his reinstatement broke). It's hard to get a handle on what his ADP really is at the moment, but I have seen him listed in various places as going at the top of the 8th round and around the #30 receiver (plus or minus a couple of spots). I don't know how many of those drafts were current (ie once he got reinstated), and I would guess his ADP will rise the closer we get to the season, especially once he gets activated and can practice. And as a reminder, he has 9 more days to get activated or else he will have to miss the first 6 weeks of the season by being on the NFI List.
2018 50 X X 80 29 51 24 51 5 25 36 21 22 85 X X
2017 X X X X X X X X X X X 28 24 39 77 20
2016 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
2015 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
2014 X X X X X X X X X X 12 32 86 53 57 X
To summarize, he played in 22 games and missed 58 games. In the games he actually played in, he ranked:
Top 10: 1 time out of 22 games (4.5%)
Top 20: 3 times out of 22 games (13.6%)
Top 30: 10 times out of 22 games (45.4%)
Top 40: 13 times out of 22 games (59.1%)
Not Top 40: 9 times out of 22 games (41%)
The point being, 2013 was a long time ago, and the preponderance of the evidence reflects that Josh Gordon has not been an uber stud WR in a long, long time. I get that people will explain away how things will be different this time around. He wasn't bad and in fact was borderline decent for a stretch of 5 weeks last year. He's got Brady throwing him the ball compared to the flotsam and jetsam he had in Cleveland.
I am just as guilty as everyone else. I drafted Gordon the other day (but as the 66th WR off the board when the news of his reinstatement broke). It's hard to get a handle on what his ADP really is at the moment, but I have seen him listed in various places as going at the top of the 8th round and around the #30 receiver (plus or minus a couple of spots). I don't know how many of those drafts were current (ie once he got reinstated), and I would guess his ADP will rise the closer we get to the season, especially once he gets activated and can practice. And as a reminder, he has 9 more days to get activated or else he will have to miss the first 6 weeks of the season by being on the NFI List.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
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