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Breaking - Josh Gordon to be reinstated (1 Viewer)

[icon] said:
That’s 70/1600/5.5 over 16 games, or WR15 in PPR (OBJ level) :lol:  
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IIRC, the  on Gordon TD in the 3 non-Gronk games was a poor decision by Brady that he chucked up deep that the defender misjudged and mistimed his leap. Instead of a bad interception, it went for a 50 yard TD. That's why any small sample size extrapolated to a full season is essentially just a way to make up really inflated numbers.

 
Anarchy99 said:
IIRC, the  on Gordon TD in the 3 non-Gronk games was a poor decision by Brady that he chucked up deep that the defender misjudged and mistimed his leap. Instead of a bad interception, it went for a 50 yard TD. That's why any small sample size extrapolated to a full season is essentially just a way to make up really inflated numbers.
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I must disagree. I think 3 games is a perfect sample size.

Confidence interval: 89% IMO

 
Look, I have no idea where I project Gordon at this point, but you HAVE to believe that this was part of a overall strategy. 

It seems to me NE is shifting to a power running/passing over the top offensive attack.  Between Harry and Gordon, IMO teams are going to going to have a difficult time.  Who has 2 corners that size?  Who does the safety shade if both (at least initially) are showing deep routes and NE is stuffing the run?  And you have Edelman cleaning up over the middle, finding holes in zones.  And White drifting out into the flat.  And never mind a TE or big RB helping block if needed.  

Its a nightmare.  Specifically, because of the size of both Harry and Gordon.  At least one of them is going to have a size advantage in man to man. If not both.  If a team goes with a zone defense, Brady will pick them apart. 

 
there's a bridge in brooklyn i can sell you if you think gordon can and will make it 16 games a) without injury or b) without suspension or c) quitting because he had a drink and has to go back to rehab). this is now how many times he's been suspendido unsuspendido?! and you're all counting on him to catch 70 balls?  I'll spell it out for you:

setting his one and only 'good' season aside he has caught more than 49 balls in a season just once.they year before his big 'breakout'. since the Epoc, he has recorded the following:

47 rec

18 rec

- 2 years suspendido

42 rec

41 rec

so first question - why does he even have a thread, 2) why are we looking a this guy like he's some sort of player to be watched in this offense, as if teams have to gameplan for this guy who throughout his career has been a wr3/4 AT BEST! sheesh .

and Harry hasnt been all that and a bag of chips in preseason either , has he?

the benefactor to the loss of gronk is going to be White all day every day, twice on Sundays

he's not a factor he's not a good player, he's not talented. I can't remember a guy that the Pool has spent more time talking up but was someone who was a total waste - oh wait, Trent Richardson comes to mind.

:rolleyes:

 
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I have to admit, I'm not drafting him this year unless it's really compelling. He's nuked at least three of my teams from championships and I'm sort of done, especially in this offense.

 
rockaction said:
I have to admit, I'm not drafting him this year unless it's really compelling. He's nuked at least three of my teams from championships and I'm sort of done, especially in this offense.
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If you got him as a shot in the dark, 18th round pick then you're probably pretty happy. Drafting him before the 8th round is risky imo.

 
JamieMurphy said:
If you got him as a shot in the dark, 18th round pick then you're probably pretty happy. Drafting him before the 8th round is risky imo.
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Exactly. And you know there's somebody in your league that can't help themselves but jump to get him. I'm going to let them jump this year if I see anything -- anything -- that I value for my team. 

eta* Let's see if I can back up my talk by leaving him there through seven or eight. Actually, in a twelve team league, yeah, I can easily do that. In a sixteen team league, I think eight is appropriate.  

 
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Tanner9919 said:
there's a bridge in brooklyn i can sell you if you think gordon can and will make it 16 games a) without injury or b) without suspension or c) quitting because he had a drink and has to go back to rehab). this is now how many times he's been suspendido unsuspendido?! and you're all counting on him to catch 70 balls?  I'll spell it out for you:

setting his one and only 'good' season aside he has caught more than 49 balls in a season just once.they year before his big 'breakout'. since the Epoc, he has recorded the following:

47 rec

18 rec

- 2 years suspendido

42 rec

41 rec

so first question - why does he even have a thread, 2) why are we looking a this guy like he's some sort of player to be watched in this offense, as if teams have to gameplan for this guy who throughout his career has been a wr3/4 AT BEST! sheesh .

and Harry hasnt been all that and a bag of chips in preseason either , has he?

the benefactor to the loss of gronk is going to be White all day every day, twice on Sundays

he's not a factor he's not a good player, he's not talented. I can't remember a guy that the Pool has spent more time talking up but was someone who was a total waste - oh wait, Trent Richardson comes to mind.

:rolleyes:
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Plus, Jacoby Meyers is the unquestioned starter obviously, of course. 

 
Isn’t he still suspended 3 games? 

Hard pass anywhere before the 9th round in redraft. 

Not saying a 9th round player will have his ceiling, but damn sure most 9th round players have a better floor.

With Gordon here’s a short list of concerns:

• Brady’s ability to chuck it deep

• Gordon relapsing 

• Gordon quitting

• injury - I realize he hasn’t played enough over the last few years to get hurt, but that doesn’t mean he’s immune. 

• normal player stuff, like Gordon failing to live up to his potential, which every player can do but yes that also includes Josh Gordon. I feel like this often gets overlooked in convos about Gordon’s immense potential. It always seems to be the assumption that if only Gordon could stay on the field he’d be a lock and loaded stud play week in & week out. But every player has career arcs, with up & down swings season to season or even game to game. To date, much of Gordon’s career has been a downswing, but it is certainly possible for Gordon to come out and just not be very good this year, even if he does manage to play every game after coming back. 

That’s just so much risk all tied to a player who’s burned owners every year already. I’ll let him be someone else’s headache. 

 
Hairy Snowman said:
It seems to me NE is shifting to a power running/passing over the top offensive attack.  Between Harry and Gordon, IMO teams are going to going to have a difficult time.  Who has 2 corners that size?  Who does the safety shade if both (at least initially) are showing deep routes and NE is stuffing the run?  And you have Edelman cleaning up over the middle, finding holes in zones.  And White drifting out into the flat.  And never mind a TE or big RB helping block if needed.  

Its a nightmare.  Specifically, because of the size of both Harry and Gordon.  At least one of them is going to have a size advantage in man to man. If not both.  If a team goes with a zone defense, Brady will pick them apart. 
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Agreed on Brady picking apart any zone defense.  That said, in 2019 most defenses will do what they can to take away anything under 10 yards and make Brady consistently hit downfield.  I can envision Gordon (or Harry to a lesser extent) having some nice numbers when they break a big play, but they'll both be very inconsistent.

Gordon will be a great dart throw in best ball and a risky flex otherwise.  Overall, just glad he'll be on the field again.  Hopefully he takes advantage of his good fortune.

 
I am keeping him at $7 in a $110 cap 16 team Dynasty IDP auction league where I am not exactly stacked at receiver. We only have 4 top-ish tier receivers available. Antonio Brown, Diggs, AJ Green, and Alshon. I have Godwin, Gordon, Robby Anderson, and Desean Hamilton for reference. I am going to target one of these guys at auction because I have a lot of money and only 3 IDP spots to fill aside from backup bye week fillers. Here is hoping that he got his head on straight. The talent is clearly there. This is a Cleveland homer draft, so if I throw him back in the pool, somebody will bid him up past what I can keep him at since his breakout season was here.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Isn’t he still suspended 3 games? 

Hard pass anywhere before the 9th round in redraft. 

Not saying a 9th round player will have his ceiling, but damn sure most 9th round players have a better floor.

With Gordon here’s a short list of concerns:

• Brady’s ability to chuck it deep

• Gordon relapsing 

• Gordon quitting

• injury - I realize he hasn’t played enough over the last few years to get hurt, but that doesn’t mean he’s immune. 

• normal player stuff, like Gordon failing to live up to his potential, which every player can do but yes that also includes Josh Gordon. I feel like this often gets overlooked in convos about Gordon’s immense potential. It always seems to be the assumption that if only Gordon could stay on the field he’d be a lock and loaded stud play week in & week out. But every player has career arcs, with up & down swings season to season or even game to game. To date, much of Gordon’s career has been a downswing, but it is certainly possible for Gordon to come out and just not be very good this year, even if he does manage to play every game after coming back. 

That’s just so much risk all tied to a player who’s burned owners every year already. I’ll let him be someone else’s headache. 
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Faust just posted in the other JG thread that he is expected to be available to start the season, so no suspension it appears.

 
He went late 6th and early 7th in a couple drafts from last night. 12 teamers. He will rise as more people become aware that he is back. I feel like the 8th round is the sweet spot when looking at the opportunity cost of who you could have selected besides him. There are too many upside guy's and/or good QB's in that area.

I know longer chase past glory. The Patriots are no longer a passing team. This is a pass for me.

 
You guys are crazy. Any player can get suspended, or get hurt, or whatever. And when you least expect it.

If you're too scared to draft Gordon, you're chicken. Because he's a damn good receiver. Who the hell else is Brady going to throw to?

 
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His ECR was WR30 this morning so 6th round is the starting price, before he moves from conditional to full reinstatement. Presumably when he steps onto a practice field he’ll become a 5th rounder.

 
drunkb said:
I am keeping him at $7 in a $110 cap 16 team Dynasty IDP auction league where I am not exactly stacked at receiver. We only have 4 top-ish tier receivers available. Antonio Brown, Diggs, AJ Green, and Alshon. I have Godwin, Gordon, Robby Anderson, and Desean Hamilton for reference. I am going to target one of these guys at auction because I have a lot of money and only 3 IDP spots to fill aside from backup bye week fillers. Here is hoping that he got his head on straight. The talent is clearly there. This is a Cleveland homer draft, so if I throw him back in the pool, somebody will bid him up past what I can keep him at since his breakout season was here.
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PPR? What are you bidding for Preston Williams? Do you count return yards?  What is your buy in? Is Cole Beasley an option?  TIA.

 
Tanner9919 said:
there's a bridge in brooklyn i can sell you if you think gordon can and will make it 16 games a) without injury or b) without suspension or c) quitting because he had a drink and has to go back to rehab). this is now how many times he's been suspendido unsuspendido?! and you're all counting on him to catch 70 balls?  I'll spell it out for you:

setting his one and only 'good' season aside he has caught more than 49 balls in a season just once.they year before his big 'breakout'. since the Epoc, he has recorded the following:

47 rec

18 rec

- 2 years suspendido

42 rec

41 rec

so first question - why does he even have a thread, 2) why are we looking a this guy like he's some sort of player to be watched in this offense, as if teams have to gameplan for this guy who throughout his career has been a wr3/4 AT BEST! sheesh .

and Harry hasnt been all that and a bag of chips in preseason either , has he?

the benefactor to the loss of gronk is going to be White all day every day, twice on Sundays

he's not a factor he's not a good player, he's not talented. I can't remember a guy that the Pool has spent more time talking up but was someone who was a total waste - oh wait, Trent Richardson comes to mind.

:rolleyes:
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But did he kick your dog?

 
Hairy Snowman said:
It seems to me NE is shifting to a power running/passing over the top offensive attack.   
Click to expand...
Except Brady’ strength is hardly the deep throws. I think they took Harry because they didn’t know they’d get Gordon back - and let’s face it can they really trust Gordon long term?

 
Dr. Octopus said:
That article is calling 10 and 20 yard passes deep balls. Brady is still great and he was a great deep ball passer at one point but he’s definitely not a great deep ball passer anymore. Their whole offense is built around his skill set and he’s still a top QB in the league obviously overall.
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That was one of the metrics discussed in the article. 

Show me data that says otherwise :popcorn:  

 
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[icon] said:
Show me data that says otherwise 
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The Pats are on TV almost every single week nationally. 

Anyway, he’s still can deliver a ball 20 yards downfield of course and even further. He’s just not going to beat you that way consistently and he doesn’t have to anyway because no one can stop Edelman, White etc.

 
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The smartest thing the Pats did was give Gordon a ring.  

 

Anarchy99 said:
Last year, Brady ranked 11th in deep attempts, 8th in total air yards, but 31.9% completion rate on deep throws (22nd).

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/tom-brady/
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Different WRs.  Last year we knew going in NE was going to struggle with the deep ball.  And they did. 

Its a different roster of receivers (except for a few) and a summer of Brady posting workout videos. 

 
cloppbeast said:
You guys are crazy. Any player can get suspended, or get hurt, or whatever. And when you least expect it.

If you're too scared to draft Gordon, you're chicken. Because he's a damn good receiver. Who the hell else is Brady going to throw to?
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Sure, but with Gordon you really know you're running a serious risk. He's been on drugs his whole life. Even if it's just weed, dude takes them constantly. Wasting a 6th round pick is a bit too rich for my blood given that you have the likelihood of him missing a bunch of time.

No thanks. And that's not chicken, that's smart. 

 
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