Brock Purdy vs. Geno Smith or Dak Prescott (1 Viewer)

[taylormeetstheismann]

I’m entertaining a flyer on Brock Purdy. Here’s the situation…12 teams, 16 roster spots PPR league. I’ve got three QBs that are all pretty much in the same middling tier according to FBG.

QB Cousins
QB GSmith
QB Prescott

Plus I have WR Lockett who is correlated to GSmith, RB Pollard who is correlated to Prescott and RB McCaffery and PK Moody which would be correlated to Purdy.

My near term plan is to stick with starting Cousins until there is a reason not to do so and he’s got a very consistent eight year track record of ~4200 yards, ~30 TDs and ~ 11 INTs per season. Geno Smith is rated about the same this year as Cousins AND last season he had 4282 yards, 30 TD and 11 INTs but he’s lacks any kind of consistent annual track record. Prescott is not as consistent either but he’s had two good seasons in the past four years with similar stats to Cousins.

Although at this moment Purdy isn’t ranked quite as high as my three QBs, he’s not far off and he’s still very early in his career which is going rather well statistically in six starts. So I’m thinking of the chances he continues to play well and potentially level up a tier or two over the season. I’m thinking maybe to drop GSmith or maybe maybe even Prescott. The idea being that dropping one of them doesn’t really hurt me as I already have two other decent mid-tier QBs and picking up Purdy (with whatever risks) might be a good addition down the line if he turns out to be the real deal and he has a good season. Put another way…do I think Purdy might outperform GSmith in particular? Even if that is a coin flip, I’m still in good enough position with Cousins and Prescott. Obviously at the moment GSmith is somewhat better rated but that certainly might change in the coming several weeks just like Purdy’s rating might change over time. I’m generally a favorite in head-to-head matchups so I don’t think I’m giving up much if I don’t have the GSmith to Lockett connection which has a little value for an underdog.

Other factors…

GSmith SOS is #1
Purdy SOS is #25
Prescott SOS is #28

I’m partial to having a QB-RB on the same team in the lineup for consistency.

Thoughts?

 

[Gally]

Is this a SF or 2 QB league? If not then you don't need three QB's and I would ditch one of them and add an upside RB or WR. You don't need three QB's.

That being said all of the QB's you are discussing are the same. Highish floor guys with no real upside. They are all the kind you like to have as your QB2 with someone like Lamar or Hurts as your QB1.

I think Cousins has a huge year this year so he would be my starter. After that flip a coin. I really am not a Geno believer so he would be dropped. After than I think Dak and Purdy are pretty similar. Capable of big games if the TD's happen in a game but also capable of a hurtful game if they TD's go to the RB's. I like Purdy and the SF offense better so I probably lean towards him. So I would drop Geno and Dak (if a 1 QB league) and get Purdy to go with Cousins.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Is this a SF or 2 QB league? If not then you don't need three QB's and I would ditch one of them and add an upside RB or WR. You don't need three QB's.

That being said all of the QB's you are discussing are the same. Highish floor guys with no real upside. They are all the kind you like to have as your QB2 with someone like Lamar or Hurts as your QB1.

I think Cousins has a huge year this year so he would be my starter. After that flip a coin. I really am not a Geno believer so he would be dropped. After than I think Dak and Purdy are pretty similar. Capable of big games if the TD's happen in a game but also capable of a hurtful game if they TD's go to the RB's. I like Purdy and the SF offense better so I probably lean towards him. So I would drop Geno and Dak (if a 1 QB league) and get Purdy to go with Cousins.

Thanks for weighing in here.

It’s just a standard start one QB league. The reason I carry three QBs (typically to the mid-point in the season) is that I sluff hard at QB (per Dodd’s Perfect Draft Strategy) but then grab three instead of two QBs to give myself an extra chance that one of the three middling QBs elevates to a top 5-7 QB.

I don’t think I got into this enough but part of my thinking is to have a team built to win in the playoffs. I like combos like Prescott/Pollard and Purdy/McCaffery as I’m more likely to grab a TD on a long drive.

 

[Gally]

With Cousins you don't need three QB's. He is a top 10 fantasy QB and I think he has a chance to be top 5 this year. He is not middling for fantasy purposes. He is what you are looking for. I would drop (or try and trade - maybe to the Rodgers owner) the third QB and go with the guy you like best.

 

[hoosier97]

Purdy i

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Purdy i

I decided to drop GSmith for Purdy. My prevailing thoughts are…

I can live without GSmith as he’s in the same tier as Cousins and Prescott.

I can live without the GSmith to Lockett combo play as I’ll rarely be an underdog that benefits from it.

I want to stash Purdy away for awhile in hopes he has a breakout season and I’ll probably know by mid-season when I probably cut down to two QBs..

I do like a same team QB-RB combo play with Purdy and McCaffery and I also have this with Prescott and Pollard. I welcome limiting my points for floor and ceiling in the name of consistency.

—

If anyone knows of good studies on differing combos like QB-RB, QB-WR, RB-WR, QB-PK, et cetera, I’d like to brush up as it’s been a long time since I looked into it and there wasn’t much out there back then.

 

[Gally]

If anyone knows of good studies on differing combos like QB-RB, QB-WR, RB-WR, QB-PK, et cetera, I’d like to brush up as it’s been a long time since I looked into it and there wasn’t much out there back then.

Stacks increase your ceiling and lower your floor. They are better suited to win DFS big tourney plays because of the ceiling potential and you don't really care about the lower floor because it's all or nothing. Is season long, week to week formats leads to higher variance which may be an issue depending on your league strengths. As you have said, stacks are better in underdog situations and worse in favorite situations.

Like you, I prefer the QB-RB stack as you likely get a piece of all TD's for that team. It's worked well for me in the past. However, in general I don't shy away or seek out stacks for season long teams. I draft the BPA and if it happens to be a stack so be it. I definitely wouldn't be planning my roster management for my 2nd or 3rd QB because of it. But I also wouldn't be keeping 3 QB's for sure and likely not 2 in 1 QB leagues. So I may not be the best to ask because we seem to be differing in our approaches.