Broncos at Colts (1 Viewer)

[duaneok66]

is it me, or is that line way too high??

I criticized Denver last week when they were 2-0, and they struggled this week, but I figured the line would be around seven or so . . .

 

[Dentist]

is it me, or is that line way too high??I criticized Denver last week when they were 2-0, and they struggled this week, but I figured the line would be around seven or so . . .

Public perception has the colts going WAY too high on spreads this year.The last two weeks have been EASY picks to take the points.Tennesee was a big dog and lost by 2.Houston was a 6.5 point dog and lost by 6.Fading the public is always good, and I think the Colts will have a hard time finishing over .500 vs the spread this year.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Dungy normally does just enough to win. I don't know if he's just being a gentleman or doesn't have the killer instinct (or maybe that's the same thing). But the Colts tend to play down to their opponent.

The exception, interestingly, seems to be Denver when they go to Indy. But that was a few years ago in the playoffs.

 

[Raider Nation]

How about the Chargers laying 11.5!

What a slap in the face to K.C.

 

[Chase Stuart]

How about the Chargers laying 11.5!What a slap in the face to K.C.

New England at -7 is the second biggest joke of the week, behind only the 52.5 O/U.

 

[Judge Smails]

I cannot see the Broncos handling Addai - at all. Those expecting big numbers from Manning will be disspointed. Run run run - and I go against Addai this week.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think we might be underestimating the effect of Indy at home here. Anyone got numbers on Indy's record against the spread home vs. away? I wonder how many points they're getting for the RCA dome.

 

[Penguin]

New England at -7 is the second biggest joke of the week, behind only the 52.5 O/U.

Just out of curiosity, what would you put the spread at, over/under included?ETA: Personally I think Vegas is counting on the public perception that the Patriots are unstoppable at this point and the Bengals defense blows. A seven point road favorite is pretty hefty, they're probably tired of paying money to the Patriot backers this season. I think it should be more in the -3/3.5 range but I wouldn't be surprised to see New England cover.

 

[Chase Stuart]

New England at -7 is the second biggest joke of the week, behind only the 52.5 O/U.

Just out of curiosity, what would you put the spread at, over/under included?ETA: Personally I think Vegas is counting on the public perception that the Patriots are unstoppable at this point and the Bengals defense blows. A seven point road favorite is pretty hefty, they're probably tired of paying money to the Patriot backers this season. I think it should be more in the -3/3.5 range but I wouldn't be surprised to see New England cover.

I'd put the spread at 10, and I'd take NE at -9.5. Over/under should be close to 60. I don't see how the Pats score less than 38, but I think we're looking at somewhere between a 38-28/41-31 finish here. Wouldn't shock me to see the Pats get in the high 40s this week alone.

 

[Penguin]

I could easily see that but to make the Pats a double digit road favorite when you have Palmer, Rudi, CJ & TJ on the other side is ballsy. I'd have to think the money % would be in the 80/20 range if the Pats were -10.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I could easily see that but to make the Pats a double digit road favorite when you have Palmer, Rudi, CJ & TJ on the other side is ballsy. I'd have to think the money % would be in the 80/20 range if the Pats were -10.

The Bengals can't run the ball, they can't stop the run, and they can't stop the pass. I don't think a one dimensional team has even a puncher's chance of beating NE, even if they've got a terrific one punch.

 

[John Mamula]

I could easily see that but to make the Pats a double digit road favorite when you have Palmer, Rudi, CJ & TJ on the other side is ballsy. I'd have to think the money % would be in the 80/20 range if the Pats were -10.

The Bengals can't run the ball, they can't stop the run, and they can't stop the pass. I don't think a one dimensional team has even a puncher's chance of beating NE, even if they've got a terrific one punch.

the last time i saw a big of a lock to beat the spread was way back on 9/22 with penn st over michigan.

 

[All Day]

I thought you guys we experts and know your stuff, why not use it as advantage by betting?

 

[Chase Stuart]

I could easily see that but to make the Pats a double digit road favorite when you have Palmer, Rudi, CJ & TJ on the other side is ballsy. I'd have to think the money % would be in the 80/20 range if the Pats were -10.

The Bengals can't run the ball, they can't stop the run, and they can't stop the pass. I don't think a one dimensional team has even a puncher's chance of beating NE, even if they've got a terrific one punch.

the last time i saw a big of a lock to beat the spread was way back on 9/22 with penn st over michigan.

Maybe no Rudi Johnson (and he's been awful anyway), 8 passing TDs allowed the past two games, and averaging 6.05 ypc on the ground.Let me put it this way -- if the Pats needed to win this game by 14 points to make the playoffs, I'd have no worries about them doing so.

 

[Penguin]

is it me, or is that line way too high??I criticized Denver last week when they were 2-0, and they struggled this week, but I figured the line would be around seven or so . . .

Denver has lost 5 of their last 7 home games. The two wins were the result of icing Janikowski in week 2 and a special teams flub by the Bengals last year. The Broncos could easily be 0-7 in their last 7 home games. I agree with the statement that Indy seems to play up or down to their competition and seems to only do enough to win (week one v.s. the Saints not withstanding, I think we know how good the Saints are now at this point.) Push comes to shove this weekend, I'd be much more comfortable backing the World Champs.ETA: I realize that this game is in Indy, my point about Denver losing 5 of 7 at home is to justify the fact that they are not nearly as good a team as many on this message board are making them out to be. They could very well be 0-3 this year if it weren't for some very fortunate luck on their end.

 

[Penguin]

And for those folks that constantly jump up in my face and say, "The Broncos own the Patriots." We'll see, I can't think of anything better than watching New England wax Denver in Foxboro on January 13th.

 

[djcolts]

According to the Sagarin Pure Points ratings, the Colts would be favored by 20 this week over Denver. I'm not saying that's right, but that may partially explain the point spread.

I thought the Titans game would be very tight - I actually predicted 23-20 on another board for that game, and I was very close. The Texan game could easily have been a solid Colts cover - in reality it wasn't nearly as close at the Titan game was the previous week - it just didn't work out that way (Colts were up 27-10 at one point).