Broncos knocked out first game? (1 Viewer)

[dansav]

If SD were it upset Cincy or KC were to beat Indy you would essentially have a divisional game in Denver.

SD had nothing to lose and would have no pressure on them as none of us had them in as a wildcard team.

Can Denver beat a team like KC 3 times in one season? That would be pretty impressive.

You heard it hear first Denver is one and done.

 

[Dez]

I will take that bet that Denver wins their 1st game. So when Denver wins you heard it hear 1st.

 

[dansav]

Bold prediction

 

[MoveToSkypager]

SD had nothing to lose and would have no pressure on them as none of us had them in as a wildcard team.

Painful to read. They have a playoff game to lose, just like Denver.

 

[Not Sleeping]

Denver at home against San Diego? Denver is an 8 point favorite (even though they just lost to them at home).

Denver at home against Kansas City? Denver is a 6.5 point favorite.

 

[dansav]

I think Rivers had to cancel his vacation this weekend. That is painful.

 

[Rolling_akg]

Colts might have the best shot of those three teams. Their d has stepped up. If luck can run enough ball control they would have a shot

 

[Riversco]

The Chargers will probably beat the Broncos if they meet. I think the Chargers are a lot better than people are giving them credit for. Too many people look at the Chargers struggling to beat the Chiefs backups and immediately write them off. Not so fast.

 

[Homer J Simpson]

The Chargers will probably beat the Broncos if they meet. I think the Chargers are a lot better than people are giving them credit for. Too many people look at the Chargers struggling to beat the Chiefs backups and immediately write them off. Not so fast.

Not that you're a homer or anything.

 

[pizzatyme]

Words like "probably" should not be used.

Maybe is good, however.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Home field and two weeks of rest against a weary middling opponent is usually enough to warrant a trip to the conference championship game. I'd be shocked if Denver lost that first game and I think the OP would be too. All bets are off for the conference championship game though. Denver's offense was a machine this year, but their defense could get them into trouble in the playoffs.

 

[Riversco]

Words like "probably" should not be used.

Maybe is good, however.

Why shouldn't it?

The Chargers have 5 wins over playoff teams this year. They clearly can beat playoff teams. And I think they matchup great with the Broncos. The best way to beat the Broncos is to have a powerful rushing attack to eat up the clock and keep Manning off the field. The Chargers can do that.

 

[Anarchy99]

Manning has lost his first playoff game 8 times. He's won his first playoff game only 4 times. For whatever reason, Manning-led teams have struggled to win their first game in the post season. DEN can only face SD, KC, or IND and I think each of those teams has a decent chance to beat the Broncos. I would say DEN has a 50% chance of winning (when historically bye week teams have had a 75-80% chance of winning).

 

[Ack88]

Broncos will win the divisional round game and lose to the Patriots in the AFC title game, thus continuing Manning's .500 playoff record.

 

[Riversco]

The Chargers have undergone a metamorphosis this season. They have had a fundamental change in philosophy on offense late in the season, similar to what happened to the Ravens a year ago.

Look at the box score for the loss to the Redskins. They were pass-first. Rivers threw the ball 46 times and they ran 16. When they lost to the Dolphins, they threw 34 times and ran 26.

Starting with the victory over the Giants, they switched to a run-first philosophy. They have not lost since. The running game is been unstoppable since the switch.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Manning has lost his first playoff game 8 times. He's won his first playoff game only 4 times. For whatever reason, Manning-led teams have struggled to win their first game in the post season. DEN can only face SD, KC, or IND and I think each of those teams has a decent chance to beat the Broncos. I would say DEN has a 50% chance of winning (when historically bye week teams have had a 75-80% chance of winning).

Nothing makes Patriot fans look worse than Patriot fans. And don't even try to claim otherwise, because everyone knows it's bull####.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Colts might have the best shot of those three teams. Their d has stepped up. If luck can run enough ball control they would have a shot

As a Broncos fan, of the three possible opponents, Indianapolis is the team I'd most like for Denver to face. They simply haven't been a very good football team since their bye. They won by 3 against the Texans, got pasted by 30 against the Rams, won by 3 against the Titans, got pasted by 29 against the Cards, won by 8 against the Titans, got pasted by 14 against the Bengals, and then sandwiched a very strong victory against the Chiefs between a pair of tune-up games against the two worst teams in the league. They have a negative post-bye scoring differential despite a schedule loaded with cream puffs. Their season-long scoring differential is roughly the same as the Chargers', but I think the Broncos match up better against Indy. Those wins against Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco were a long time ago, now.

I wouldn't mind the San Diego rematch, either. Really, of the three opponents, Kansas City is clearly the best and the one I would least like to see against Denver in the divisional round. Even then, I think Denver matches up pretty well against them and should be pretty strongly favored to advance.

 

[pizzatyme]

Pasted by 14 against the Bengals? That is a comet sly different game if the officials did their job and call the runner down by contact at the goal line. But carry on. It fits your narrative.

 

[Warrior]

The Chargers will probably beat the Broncos if they meet. I think the Chargers are a lot better than people are giving them credit for. Too many people look at the Chargers struggling to beat the Chiefs backups and immediately write them off. Not so fast.

Says the impartial guy with the word "Rivers" in his name and a picture of Philip Rivers as his avatar.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Manning has lost his first playoff game 8 times. He's won his first playoff game only 4 times. For whatever reason, Manning-led teams have struggled to win their first game in the post season. DEN can only face SD, KC, or IND and I think each of those teams has a decent chance to beat the Broncos. I would say DEN has a 50% chance of winning (when historically bye week teams have had a 75-80% chance of winning).

Unless that "whatever reason" is "Peyton Manning", I don't really see how the performance of Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, Reggie Wayne, and Tony Dungy (or worse, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Chad Bratzke, and Jim Mora) is particularly relevant to our expectations for the performance of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and John Fox.

If that "whatever reason" *IS* Peyton Manning, then it seems like now is a good time to point out that 4 of Manning's 8 "one-and-dones" came in games where his team held a lead with 40 seconds remaining in regulation, or that Manning's kicker has never made a game-winning or game-tying kick in the 4th quarter or overtime, and Manning's opponents have never missed one.

If you really think a Denver win is a 50/50 proposition, there will be plenty of opportunities for arbitrage for you, because I guarantee you that Vegas is going to disagree pretty vehemently.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Any given Sunday.

 

[T with T]

If SD were it upset Cincy or KC were to beat Indy you would essentially have a divisional game in Denver.

SD had nothing to lose and would have no pressure on them as none of us had them in as a wildcard team.

Can Denver beat a team like KC 3 times in one season? That would be pretty impressive.

You heard it hear first Denver is one and done.

you my friend are smoking some good shi%......

 

[Anarchy99]

Manning has lost his first playoff game 8 times. He's won his first playoff game only 4 times. For whatever reason, Manning-led teams have struggled to win their first game in the post season. DEN can only face SD, KC, or IND and I think each of those teams has a decent chance to beat the Broncos. I would say DEN has a 50% chance of winning (when historically bye week teams have had a 75-80% chance of winning).

Nothing makes Patriot fans look worse than Patriot fans. And don't even try to claim otherwise, because everyone knows it's bull####.

I don't see the Pats doing anything great this post season, so it's not like I am suggesting the Pats are great and Denver is horrible.

Maybe the past has some impact on the future, maybe it doesn't.

But in his 12 seasons worth of first playoff games, Manning led the Colts to score 18 or fewer points 6 times. Overall, he had 2 picks or more 3 times and passer ratings in the 80s or lower 6 times.

Manning was not specifically the cause for losing, but for whatever reason his teams have struggled to win their first playoff games. Maybe it's his defenses, or coaching, or bad bounces, or blown calls, or any other explanation. But the bottom line is Manning's teams have not had a good record out of the gate in the playoffs.

That's why they play the games, and maybe they will win this year 54-3 in their first game.

 

[ebsteelers]

chiefs and chargers lose this weekend

 

[T with T]

you guys are all crazy..... Denver is goin to the superbowl book it.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Pasted by 14 against the Bengals? That is a comet sly different game if the officials did their job and call the runner down by contact at the goal line. But carry on. It fits your narrative.

Blaming the outcome of a blowout loss on a blown call in the first half? I'm not the one milking the narrative, here. Sure, take that touchdown off the board for Cincinnati, about the only thing it changes is that Cincy's defense isn't playing prevent with a 21-point lead on Indy's final drive allowing them to get one last touchdown to make the final score look respectable. BJGE getting awarded a touchdown on 4th down before halftime didn't cause the Colts to allow Cincinnati to convert 50% of the time on 3rd down, or score 5 other touchdowns.

I don't need to stretch the data to fit the narrative. The data fits the narrative just fine without my help. Indy has given up more points than it has scored since the bye, despite facing Houston twice, Tennessee twice, and Jacksonville once. Wipe that Cincinnati touchdown off the board and Indy goes up to a +6 scoring differential against a below-average schedule. Football Outsiders has them 13th in total DVOA, but way down at 21st in weighted DVOA (which weights recent games more heavily than early games). I don't know if it's regression, or if it's Reggie Wayne, or if it's Andrew Luck's shoulder getting tired from carrying the offense, or what it is, but the Colts clearly are not anywhere near as good as they were early in the season, when they knocked off Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver.

 

[Anarchy99]

Manning has lost his first playoff game 8 times. He's won his first playoff game only 4 times. For whatever reason, Manning-led teams have struggled to win their first game in the post season. DEN can only face SD, KC, or IND and I think each of those teams has a decent chance to beat the Broncos. I would say DEN has a 50% chance of winning (when historically bye week teams have had a 75-80% chance of winning).

Unless that "whatever reason" is "Peyton Manning", I don't really see how the performance of Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, Reggie Wayne, and Tony Dungy (or worse, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Chad Bratzke, and Jim Mora) is particularly relevant to our expectations for the performance of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and John Fox.

If that "whatever reason" *IS* Peyton Manning, then it seems like now is a good time to point out that 4 of Manning's 8 "one-and-dones" came in games where his team held a lead with 40 seconds remaining in regulation, or that Manning's kicker has never made a game-winning or game-tying kick in the 4th quarter or overtime, and Manning's opponents have never missed one.

If you really think a Denver win is a 50/50 proposition, there will be plenty of opportunities for arbitrage for you, because I guarantee you that Vegas is going to disagree pretty vehemently.

And in the past, Vegas would have lost their collective shirts favoring the Colts or Broncos over the past 14-15 years. I'm not suggesting that Denver should not be prohibitive favorites. But I am suggesting that something has happened over the years to turn Manning led teams into a different team at the start of the playoffs.

Maybe some of that stemmed from shutting things down early when he was on the Colts and playing back ups for the last couple of weeks of the regular season. Coupled with a bye, maybe there was some rust to start the playoff games. I don't know.

Maybe there is an explanation as to why things turned out the way they did, maybe there isn't.

 

[grateful zed]

let me be the first to predict a tie

 

[Adam Harstad]

Manning was not specifically the cause for losing, but for whatever reason his teams have struggled to win their first playoff games. Maybe it's his defenses, or coaching, or bad bounces, or blown calls, or any other explanation. But the bottom line is Manning's teams have not had a good record out of the gate in the playoffs.

So my takeaway from this is that Peyton Manning's teams lost for reasons that were not related to Peyton Manning, and that means this team which has nothing in common with those earlier teams except for Peyton Manning is also significantly more likely to lose than we'd otherwise think.

Seriously, if Peyton Manning was not specifically the cause for his Indy teams losing, then what does those Indy teams losing have to do with Denver's chances this year? Is Marvin Harrison going to come around and cough all his choker germs all over Demaryius Thomas? Is Dwight Freeney going to suit up in place of Shaun Phillips? I mean, really the only common denominator between the two teams is Jacob Tamme. Is Jacob Tamme secretly the biggest jinx in NFL history?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Manning has lost his first playoff game 8 times. He's won his first playoff game only 4 times. For whatever reason, Manning-led teams have struggled to win their first game in the post season. DEN can only face SD, KC, or IND and I think each of those teams has a decent chance to beat the Broncos. I would say DEN has a 50% chance of winning (when historically bye week teams have had a 75-80% chance of winning).

Unless that "whatever reason" is "Peyton Manning", I don't really see how the performance of Dwight Freeney, Bob Sanders, Reggie Wayne, and Tony Dungy (or worse, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Chad Bratzke, and Jim Mora) is particularly relevant to our expectations for the performance of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and John Fox.

If that "whatever reason" *IS* Peyton Manning, then it seems like now is a good time to point out that 4 of Manning's 8 "one-and-dones" came in games where his team held a lead with 40 seconds remaining in regulation, or that Manning's kicker has never made a game-winning or game-tying kick in the 4th quarter or overtime, and Manning's opponents have never missed one.

If you really think a Denver win is a 50/50 proposition, there will be plenty of opportunities for arbitrage for you, because I guarantee you that Vegas is going to disagree pretty vehemently.

And in the past, Vegas would have lost their collective shirts favoring the Colts or Broncos over the past 14-15 years. I'm not suggesting that Denver should not be prohibitive favorites. But I am suggesting that something has happened over the years to turn Manning led teams into a different team at the start of the playoffs.

Maybe some of that stemmed from shutting things down early when he was on the Colts and playing back ups for the last couple of weeks of the regular season. Coupled with a bye, maybe there was some rust to start the playoff games. I don't know.

Maybe there is an explanation as to why things turned out the way they did, maybe there isn't.

Sure. One time, I decided to stay on 20 in blackjack when the dealer was showing a 9, and he wound up getting 21, so clearly that means staying on 20 is a bad idea.

Also, regarding the bolded, I'm pretty sure saying that Denver is 50/50 to win the game qualifies as exactly that. If a team is a coin flip to win, then they should not be prohibitive favorites, since prohibitive favoritehood is meant to indicate that a team has a better than 50% chance of winning the game.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Manning has lost his first playoff game 8 times. He's won his first playoff game only 4 times. For whatever reason, Manning-led teams have struggled to win their first game in the post season. DEN can only face SD, KC, or IND and I think each of those teams has a decent chance to beat the Broncos. I would say DEN has a 50% chance of winning (when historically bye week teams have had a 75-80% chance of winning).

Nothing makes Patriot fans look worse than Patriot fans. And don't even try to claim otherwise, because everyone knows it's bull####.

I don't see the Pats doing anything great this post season, so it's not like I am suggesting the Pats are great and Denver is horrible.

Of course not. But many/most Pats fans have this built in complex that being a Patriots fan means being a Brady fan (that's fine) means being an anti-Manning fan (stupid). You are doing it here by doing everything but saying Manning is a playoff choker. That's why nothing makes Patriot fans look worse than Patriot fans. I wish fans like would drop off the face of the earth and leave the Patriots team to fans that actually appreciate other good football players without being so intellectually dishonest.

 

[moleculo]

here's a data point worth considering - look at what Manning did in his first playoff game the last time he set the passing TD record. (hint: 2004)

 

[Steeler]

Pasted by 14 against the Bengals? That is a comet sly different game if the officials did their job and call the runner down by contact at the goal line. But carry on. It fits your narrative.

 

[Anarchy99]

Manning has lost his first playoff game 8 times. He's won his first playoff game only 4 times. For whatever reason, Manning-led teams have struggled to win their first game in the post season. DEN can only face SD, KC, or IND and I think each of those teams has a decent chance to beat the Broncos. I would say DEN has a 50% chance of winning (when historically bye week teams have had a 75-80% chance of winning).

Nothing makes Patriot fans look worse than Patriot fans. And don't even try to claim otherwise, because everyone knows it's bull####.

I don't see the Pats doing anything great this post season, so it's not like I am suggesting the Pats are great and Denver is horrible.

Of course not. But many/most Pats fans have this built in complex that being a Patriots fan means being a Brady fan (that's fine) means being an anti-Manning fan (stupid). You are doing it here by doing everything but saying Manning is a playoff choker. That's why nothing makes Patriot fans look worse than Patriot fans. I wish fans like would drop off the face of the earth and leave the Patriots team to fans that actually appreciate other good football players without being so intellectually dishonest.

I have always argued that Manning is a better pure passer and field general than Brady. However, based on other factors, the Pats won more titles than Manning has.

Unfortunately, I see similar signs for Manning this year as in Indy. Great record, great offense, mediocre defense. In the past that recipe usually didn't turn out well. Oddly enough, the one SB winning year for Manning a mediocre defense played much better in the post season. In other years, he had some better defenses (statistically) that didn't get it done in the post season.

If the Pats have a chance this year, it's due to their recent approach the past couple of weeks that was similar to their title years (ground and pound and play decent defense). I will be the first to say I have no confidence in the NE defense, but they have been opportunistic and forced a lot of turnovers. However, if they don't force turnovers I don't see them being able to make a lot of stands on key plays, and that will be their undoing. NE has shown that they will be in any game with 5 minutes to go . . . and that includes letting other teams being in the game as well. They can win or lose against anyone in their current state.

 

[Rubi]

The one thing that will prevent San Diego from beating the Broncos is their game this weekend against The Bengals. Cinncy will win handily. Lay the 7 points,they'll at least double that. The Broncos will win their first playoff game,whoever they play,but Cinncy or New England will take them out one step from The Meadowlands,and both Manning QB's will be watching The Super Bowl on T.V. at daddy's house.

 

[ROCKET]

The good news for Denver is the AFC is absolute s$hit this year and they will win by default. The bad news is the SB is in NJ where the cold and wind will make Manning his usual cold weather, playoff choking self. If they go up vs SF or Seattle he won't do jack. This is far more likely than him lighting it up in 30 degree (at best) weather. Denver got hosed by the SB location big time.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Manning has lost his first playoff game 8 times. He's won his first playoff game only 4 times. For whatever reason, Manning-led teams have struggled to win their first game in the post season. DEN can only face SD, KC, or IND and I think each of those teams has a decent chance to beat the Broncos. I would say DEN has a 50% chance of winning (when historically bye week teams have had a 75-80% chance of winning).

No way this Denver team is only a 50 percent shot at winning their first game. They will be a Td favorite, even would be 50 percent.

It's about 65 percent shot at winning. If you think it's 50, you should bet heavily on the money line whoever faces Denver and you'll see there that Vegas will not think it's 50/50.

I appreciate historical data as much as anyone but each team is different every year.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

here's a data point worth considering - look at what Manning did in his first playoff game the last time he set the passing TD record. (hint: 2004)

He now puts his left sock on first and his right sock on last, something worth considering as well. Plus he'll probably eat chicken the night before rather than pasta.

Personally, I am not going back nearly a decade to help me with what he may do in 2 weeks from now to help me with what Manning will do.

 

[5Rings]

The good news for Denver is the AFC is absolute s#### this year and they will win by default. The bad news is the SB is in NJ where the cold and wind will make Manning his usual cold weather, playoff choking self. If they go up vs SF or Seattle he won't do jack. This is far more likely than him lighting it up in 30 degree (at best) weather. Denver got hosed by the SB location big time.

Exactly. I think all 6 NFC teams are better than the #2-6 AFC teams and have a better shot of beating Denver than any team in the AFC.

I'm going to be shocked if Denver doesn't walk to the SB.

 

[ROCKET]

The good news for Denver is the AFC is absolute s#### this year and they will win by default. The bad news is the SB is in NJ where the cold and wind will make Manning his usual cold weather, playoff choking self. If they go up vs SF or Seattle he won't do jack. This is far more likely than him lighting it up in 30 degree (at best) weather. Denver got hosed by the SB location big time.

Exactly. I think all 6 NFC teams are better than the #2-6 AFC teams and have a better shot of beating Denver than any team in the AFC.

I'm going to be shocked if Denver doesn't walk to the SB.

I wouldn't go that far. There are only 3 legit teams IMO with a chance at the SB title, SF, Seattle and Carolina who is a distant third. The winner of the SF/Sea game is your SB winner IMO. Teams like Philly, N.O. and GB are no better then NE, Cincy, Indy& KC.

 

[moleculo]

As a Bronco fan, the only afc teams that concern me are NE and Cincy, and these teams are guaranteed to not play in Denver for the first game.

SD is a slight concern because they have done it before, but imo its gonna be really tough to win in Mile High twice. McCoy already showed his cards, JDR will be better prepared to deal with the SD running game. Plus, having Welker back will really help the O.

KC is a fraud. Their record and defensive stats were propped up by a miraculous streak of back-up QB's and terrible teams. I didn't see any glimmer of hope for KC in either previous game vs Denver.

I haven't been all that impressed with Indy since they lost Wayne. Mathis would be a problem again, but he wouldn't be merely the same threat on the road.

Weatherwise, I believe the forecast is for 53 deg. Of course, things are likely to change between now and then, but single digit weather is unlikely, imo.

Broncos do have flaws and they are a bad game from Manning away from doom - the team is not good enough to overcome poor QB play. Any given Sunday and all that.

 

[dansav]

The stars are aligning for a broncos one and done. Denver to host SD. Tough divisional game next weekend

 

[Dez]

So when Denver wins what happens to your guarantee ?

 

[Dez]

SD shouldn't even been in the playoffs an obvious penalty on the missed FG never even called.

 

[Ghost Rider]

But they are, and once you are in the tournament, you have a chance, and the Chargers are playing about as well as anyone right now. It will be a tough game for the Broncos next week.

 

[Buffaloes]

SD shouldn't even been in the playoffs

yes, they should. they are miles better than any of the other potential 6 seeds. and cherry picking one missed call over an entire season doesn't make sense.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

SD shouldn't even been in the playoffs an obvious penalty on the missed FG never even called.

and yet here we are

 

[Buffaloes]

SD is a slight concern because they have done it before, but imo its gonna be really tough to win in Mile High twice. McCoy already showed his cards, JDR will be better prepared to deal with the SD running game. Plus, having Welker back will really help the O.

SD played pretty similarly in both games and blew Denver out of the water just in terms of TOP in both games. I think they match up very well against Denver. That said, Denver needs to take care of business. Hopefully the return of Welker does add a spark. The week off hopefully helped some of the d get healthy as well.

 

[Bri]

Manning will blow up their secondary

 

[Koya]

Broncos are going to Steamroll (unless some odd weather event etc occurs).

With a week's rest, Denver ready to roll and where they are, as a football team, right now? I just don't think SD can keep up.