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Broncos Never Draft a RB in Round One (1 Viewer)

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
skeletor has enjoyed great success during his tenure with the run game statistically... more impressively, his system has succeeded in not skipping a beat even when plugging in seemingly ordinary talents like gary, anderson & dayne...

yet since the two super bowls with elway, the team has done just well enough to fall short of the super bowl...

its not necessarily that they have a short window which will quickly slam shut... some key players such as plummer, bailey, gold & DJ williams are young... but others such as rod smith & john lynch may only have a year or two left...

and after getting embarrassed by IND in 2003-04, broncs had a more respectable post-season, making it to the AFC championship game & losing to eventual super bowl winner steelers... so shanahan could be thinking (rightly, imo) that he may be a player or two away from a super bowl appearance/victory...

with the 1.15, & previously good looking RB opporttunities in ARI & BAL seemingly not there anymore, DEN may have choice of williams, white or maroney, all who could/should be upgrades over likes of dayne & bell...

with marginal, journeyman types like anderson & droughns enjoying such huge success... it would seem natural for him to wonder how a blue chip RB with elite run skills would fare... & if that would put them over the top... now are probably relatively close to the big prize...

 
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David Yudkin

Footballguy
I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn 1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M 1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia 1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas 1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan 1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia 2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah 2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL) 2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma 2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh 2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out of a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
 
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I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?

1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn

1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M

1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia

1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas

1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan

1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia

2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah

2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)

2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma

2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh

2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out os a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
I speculate that your speculation is correct, and that Shanny wants a quarterback (although that's pure speculation on my part).
 
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rabidfireweasel

Footballguy
I think this is where FF people overthink. Shanny has to take pride (not false pride) in his ability to evaluate rb's by different criteria than we do. He finds backs that produce at an extremely high level in his system, without having to pay top prices. This adds to his competitive advantage- he gets good cheap players here, which allows him to spend more on the rest of his team. I don't think he is going to change what is working unless he is totally floored by a rb prospect- and I don't see that with who will be available at 1.15. They are good certainly, but not once in a generation rbs.

 

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?

1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn

1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M

1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia

1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas

1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan

1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia

2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah

2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)

2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma

2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh

2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out os a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
the thing that roared off the list for me is that portis is the last "great", very good back drafted by shanahan (some, probably fewer than last season, though, would argue that bell could be very good... but whether through lack of opportunity or not, he has had nowhere near the impact at a similar stage in their respective careers) & that dates back to 2002... before THAT, davis was the best example of a real difference maker... & you have to go back to '95... so that is two exceptional RBs in last 11 years...anderson did have a monster rookie year & he had a shockingly effective 2005 season, but he didn't possess the kind of talent that scares teams...

also, second rounders like portis & bell were selected with higher picks in round two than that which they have this year... which is almost like a low third...

so they may not be able to even get comparable talents to those two (to the extent we can make generalizations about different draft classes spanning several years which may have talent variably distributed across the respective positions)...

in other words... if they want a RB, they are probably looking at a RB that carries a lower grade than those two if they wait until the second round to pull the trigger... if they want to upgrade... they may have to think hard about using one of those firsts...

the release of MA could be interpreted different ways... but letting their best RB by far in 2005 go... & questions about whether dayne or bell can carry the load & be the feature RB... could point towards plans to draft a frontline talent... which would be less likely to be found after the first...

 
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David Yudkin

Footballguy
Obviously there is nothing that precludes the Broncos from NOT taking a RB earlier than they have in the past. I am too far removed from the Broncos to really have a ton of insight as to what else the team needs at other positions.

TDavis was the 21st RB off the board in his draft. Portis and Bell were both the 4th RB taken in their drafts. Clarrett, clearly a flyer, was the #9 RB selected last time around.

I've seen stranger things happen, so maybe they are intending on using Dayne in Anderson's role from last year. Tht would certainly signal the beginning of the apocolypse, but it could happen.

 

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
I think this is where FF people overthink. Shanny has to take pride (not false pride) in his ability to evaluate rb's by different criteria than we do. He finds backs that produce at an extremely high level in his system, without having to pay top prices. This adds to his competitive advantage- he gets good cheap players here, which allows him to spend more on the rest of his team. I don't think he is going to change what is working unless he is totally floored by a rb prospect- and I don't see that with who will be available at 1.15. They are good certainly, but not once in a generation rbs.
i hear what you are saying... & don't get me wrong... i'm not saying its LIKELY (which is why i purposefully tried to not sensationalize the thread header but instead phrased it as a question... to acknowledge the uncertainty)... i have respect for history...but MY spidey sense won't be shocked if they do the unthinkable & draft a RB in first round...

imo, the position has been somewhat in disarray since portis... certainly they had success last year, but MA wore down & shanahan seemed to really distrust bell in playoffs based on puny number of carries he received...

deangelo has been called potentially the next great RB, & LT & curtis martin have been used as comps (probable HOFers)... white has been compared to bettis (another HOFer... props to oz for reminding me of this in another thread... the bush-williams one, i think)... so if these guys aren't once in a generation talents (jim brown, eric dickerson, walter payton?), they have the potential to be stars...

and i might make the observation that the most talented RB in recent seasons for skeletor, portis, racked up an edge-in-his-prime-like consecutive 1,500 yard rushing seasons to start his career... few RBs in NFL history have had such a start... & williams could be as good or better than portis... early looks i have seen of white & maroney make me think they could have well aligned skill sets in DEN cutback running scheme & might enjoy similar success to portis (obviously white is a different type of RB than portis... but terrell davis was different, too... more than one kind of running style can succeed)...

 
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P Boy

Footballguy
Okay, we need to stop thinking like wishful FF owners when it comes to the draft. Believe it not, some teams will pick O-linemen & DTs in the first round, even though we as FF owners thinks they need to upgrade their skill positions - because that's where the team's area of greatest need is.

When looking at DEN from this perspective, the positions of greatest need are easily WR & a DE that can bring significant pressure off the edge, and then maybe TE & O-line.

DEN is razor thin at WR - Rod Smith can't get the seperation he used to any longer & is much more suited to being a #2 WR at this stage in his career. Lelie has taken a step backward & is essentially turned into nothing more than a long threat - which is the province of #3 WRs in the NFL. Devoe & Adams have shown some promise but still are not legit #2 WRs at the NFL level, but they are nice compliments in a solid WR corps. David Terrell is a wild card that is either going to be a boom or bust player. I'm holding out hope that he can get his act together & contribute in a meaningful way, and the Bronco coaching staff loves him & the work ethic, great team attitude, and physical ability he's shown so far. But based upon his history he is more likely to be a guy who will contribute a lot in one or two games & be a non-factor in most of the others.

Make no mistake, if Rod Smith gets hurt, this team is in very serious trouble offensively.

DEN has pissed away two very good pass rushers in the past 3 years - Reggie Hayward & Bertrand Berry. They did this in an effort to keep Trevor Pryce on the roster, even though Pryce is a hybrid DE who started as a DT and is a much more balanced D-lineman than he is either an outstanding pass rusher or run stuffer - but Pryce was easily the best pass rusher on the D-line. He is an ideal candidate for a DE in a 3-4 D. But Shanahan decided this year after pissing away Hayward & Berry in favor of Pryce that Pryce was expendable. That means that DEN has lost its 3 best pass rushers in the past 3 years, and has filled in their spots with Courtney Brown, John Engleberger, and now Kennard Lang. While those guys are all pretty solid D-linemen, none of them put fear in an opposing O-coordinator when he looks at his passing game. nor do they cause any QBs to unload the ball early after looking over their shoulders to see if they're going to get creamed. DEN has a very good - possibly outstanding - secondary right now, but they are hampered by a D-line that allows other teams 5 seconds or more on pass plays on far too many occassions. No secondary is going to perform well given that much time to cover. DEN has - and I can't emphasize this enough - absolutely has to get someone who can bring it on the outside of the line.

At TE, there is only the fragile Stephen Alexander & the basketball player-turned-TE project Wesley Duke. TE is a key cog in the DEN O, and here we are again at another position that is razor thin. If Alexander goes down - and history says he will - the DEN O is is big trouble here also.

The O-line has been superb, and has gotten almost as good in pass protection as they have in run blocking. Plummer is taking very, very few sacks or big hits. Part of that is due to Plummer's feet, but another part is due to DEN's O-line getting much better at pass blocking, partly by starting to bring on some bigger guys like Foster at OT. But this line is getting very long in the tooth, and they're going to need some young bucks to step up very soon. DEN is going to have to start thinking about filling what will be gaping holes in the O-line in the near future. The only reason I won't consider Shanahan taking an O-lineman in the first round if some stud falls to him is that he has had great success in drafting O-linemen late in the draft, much like RBs.

That takes us to RB. Why would Shanahan draft into what is a strength for the team? DEN has the state-of-the-art running game in the NFL, and they have done a predominance of the damage in the past decade with RBs that are either cast-offs in the draft or cast-offs from other teams. He & the coaching staff love Dayne, and they have the perfect tandem in Dayne & Bell in the backfield right now. Shanahan has also had great success - in fact, downright uncanny success - finding RBs late in the draft that fit DEN's system like a glove & turn into high impact players in the NFL. 2 of the past 3 RBs they've selected before the 4th round in the past few years have been miserable failures - Maurice Clarett & Quentin Griffin, and the third - Tatum Bell - is a part time player. Drafting a RB in the 1st is counterproductive to the team - it would ignore areas of much higher need while ignoring past success in late rounds with RBs. That said, if the right guy falls into Shanahan's lap unexpectedly - say LenDale White or DeAngelo Williams, he just might burn the #22 pick on one of them. It might be awfully difficult to pass on a guy with those guy's talent despite needing so much more at other positions.

As far as QB, Plummer is locked in. Shanahan has been thoroughly combing the FA market for a backup for Plummer and it looks like they will add a 2nd stringer that way. Van Pelt was the flavor of the year last year, but given how hard DEN is looking for a backup QB I'd say that Shanahan realizes how limited Van Pelt is and that he needs a serious backup if he's going to compete seriously for a SB. It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a guy like Harrington as a 2nd stringer this coming year - which might allow Harrington to ressurrect his career. But Shanahan has made a habit of carrying only 2 active QBs on his regular season roster, and QB is not a position of dire need. That said, again, like RB, if a potential stud QB like Cutler were to drop too far in the 1st round - much like Roethlisberger fell to PIT - it might fit Shanahan's fancy to burn a 1st rounder on that guy. It's a possibility, but again would be counterproductive to a team that was 1 game away from the SB last year.

Just my thoughts, no more.

 
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Okay, we need to stop thinking like wishful FF owners when it comes to the draft.  Believe it not, some teams will pick O-linemen & DTs in the first round, even though we as FF owners thinks they need to upgrade their skill positions - because that's where the team's area of greatest need is.

When looking at DEN from this perspective, the positions of greatest need are easily WR & a DE that can bring significant pressure off the edge, and then maybe TE & O-line. 

DEN is razor thin at WR - Rod Smith can't get the seperation he used to any longer & is much more suited to being a #2 WR at this stage in his career.  Lelie has taken a step backward & is essentially turned into nothing more than a long threat - which is the province of #3 WRs in the NFL.  Devoe & Adams have shown some promise but still are not legit #2 WRs at the NFL level, but they are nice compliments in a solid WR corps.  David Terrell is a wild card that is either going to be a boom or bust player.  I'm holding out hope that he can get his act together & contribute in a meaningful way, and the Bronco coaching staff loves him & the work ethic, great team attitude, and physical ability he's shown so far.  But based upon his history he is more likely to be a guy who will contribute a lot in one or two games & be a non-factor in most of the others.

Make no mistake, if Rod Smith gets hurt, this team is in very serious trouble offensively.

DEN has pissed away two very good pass rushers in the past 3 years - Reggie Hayward & Bertrand Berry.  They did this in an effort to keep Trevor Pryce on the roster, even though Pryce is a hybrid DE who started as a DT and is a much more balanced D-lineman than he is either an outstanding pass rusher or run stuffer - but Pryce was easily the best pass rusher on the D-line.  He is an ideal candidate for a DE in a 3-4 D.  But Shanahan decided this year after pissing away Hayward & Berry in favor of Pryce that Pryce was expendable.  That means that DEN has lost its 3 best pass rushers in the past 3 years, and has filled in their spots with Courtney Brown, John Engleberger, and now Kennard Lang.  While those guys are all pretty solid D-linemen, none of them put fear in an opposing O-coordinator when he looks at his passing game. nor do they cause any QBs to unload the ball early after looking over their shoulders to see if they're going to get creamed.  DEN has a very good - possibly outstanding - secondary right now, but they are hampered by a D-line that allows other teams 5 seconds or more on pass plays on far too many occassions.  No secondary is going to perform well given that much time to cover.  DEN has - and I can't emphasize this enough - absolutely has to get someone who can bring it on the outside of the line.

At TE, there is only the fragile Stephen Alexander & the basketball player-turned-TE project Wesley Duke.  TE is a key cog in the DEN O, and here we are again at another position that is razor thin.  If Alexander goes down - and history says he will - the DEN O is is big trouble here also.

The O-line has been superb, and has gotten almost as good in pass protection as they have in run blocking.  Plummer is taking very, very few sacks or big hits.  Part of that is due to Plummer's feet, but another part is due to DEN's O-line getting much better at pass blocking, partly by starting to bring on some bigger guys like Foster at OT.  But this line is getting very long in the tooth, and they're going to need some young bucks to step up very soon.  DEN is going to have to start thinking about filling what will be gaping holes in the O-line in the near future.  The only reason I won't consider Shanahan taking an O-lineman in the first round if some stud falls to him is that he has had great success in drafting O-linemen late in the draft, much like RBs.

That takes us to RB.  Why would Shanahan draft into what is a strength for the team?  DEN has the state-of-the-art running game in the NFL, and they have done a predominance of the damage in the past decade with RBs that are either cast-offs in the draft or cast-offs from other teams.  He & the coaching staff love Dayne, and they have the perfect tandem in Dayne & Bell in the backfield right now.  Shanahan has also had great success - in fact, downright uncanny success - finding RBs late in the draft that fit DEN's system like a glove & turn into high impact players in the NFL.  2 of the past 3 RBs they've selected before the 4th round in the past few years have been miserable failures - Maurice Clarett & Quentin Griffin, and the third - Tatum Bell - is a part time player.  Drafting a RB in the 1st is counterproductive to the team - it would ignore areas of much higher need while ignoring past success in late rounds with RBs.  That said, if the right guy falls into Shanahan's lap unexpectedly - say LenDale White or DeAngelo Williams, he just might burn the #22 pick on one of them.  It might be awfully difficult to pass on a guy with those guy's talent despite needing so much more at other positions.

As far as QB, Plummer is locked in.  Shanahan has been thoroughly combing the FA market for a backup for Plummer and it looks like they will add a 2nd stringer that way.  Van Pelt was the flavor of the year last year, but given how hard DEN is looking for a backup QB I'd say that Shanahan realizes how limited Van Pelt is and that he needs a serious backup if he's going to compete seriously for a SB.  It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a guy like Harrington as a 2nd stringer this coming year - which might allow Harrington to ressurrect his career.  But Shanahan has made a habit of carrying only 2 active QBs on his regular season roster, and QB is not a position of dire need.  That said, again, like RB, if a potential stud QB like Cutler were to drop too far in the 1st round - much like Roethlisberger fell to PIT - it might fit Shanahan's fancy to burn a 1st rounder on that guy.  It's a possibility, but again would be counterproductive to a team that was 1 game away from the SB last year.

Just my thoughts, no more.
Good analysis. Age is about to catch up to the Broncos in a big way. Their line is at it's zenith or perhaps slightly past it. Their receiving corp is barely adequate and with Smith aging will be devastated should he go down, a distinct possibility at his age. In another two years they will have to start looking for a successor at Q.B. so ignoring the line now would be foolish as they certainly can't replace the line and a Q.B. in the same draft or two.This is a team structured to win now. As such they need impact players now, while they have a window. The potential for immediate help, players who can get in the system and contribute right away, are at D.E. and W.R. Next they have to address the line and T.E. (unless Dukes comes on, a guy I really like). Given these immediate needs, coupled with immediate pressure, I see the Broncos going W.R., then Guard, then maybe R.B. if an unusual talent slide to them in the secong round, like say Calhoun.

I believe that if one of the big three R.B.'s or Q.B.'s slide to the Broncos slots that they would trade down with someone who covets those players and who appreciates the value entailed in that slide.

I do see Chad jackson or Santonio Holmes available at 15, along with Tamba Hall, so Denver can definately get value at a position of need. I suspect they will grab Hall believing the W.R.'s are more likely to fall to them. At 22 one of the big three receivers, Hall, or Le Dale White are likely to be there so the Broncos will have some chance to again draft great value to fill need, or to trade down to great advantage if White is still there. (This would of course piss off the Denver press since White is a local boy).

 
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I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?

1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn

1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M

1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia

1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas

1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan

1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia

2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah

2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)

2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma

2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh

2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out of a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
I just don't see why everyone believes Denver is so good at drafting RBs? :no: I see Portis, TD and I guess Mike Anderson...that's it. The rest of the picks are nothing to write home about. Coaches Bobby Turner and Alex Gibbs are much more responsible for the developement of the Denver running game than any of Shannahan's draft picks. Don't forget that Shanahan called Kevan Barlow the "best RB in the draft" one year...his RB picks have been nothing special. Overrated :yes: is the word...

:football:
I have always taken the position that Shanahan gets too much credit for drafting Davis. If he were such a keen evaluator of talent, and therefore knew what he would become, there is no way he would have passed on him in the 4th and 5th rounds of that draft. Hell, he would have been stupid to pass on him in the 3rd round. No, that was a bit of dumb luck in my book.
 
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Z-Dog

Footballguy
If I got as good production out of later-round RBs, I would never draft an RB in 1st round. What stopped Denver last year was no WRs and no pass-rush. Those are the needs that I expect to see addressed.

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
I think if they do, it'll be at #22, not #15. I have to keep thinking about why they traded up in round 1. Is it to procure a RB? I highly doubt it - most conventional wisdom has a couple RBs falling to the twenties, they could have gotten Maroney or maybe LenDale without moving off of 22 and 29. They must be targeting someone - either Chad Jackson or Vince Young/Jay Cutler. They traded ahead of Minnesota and Miami which leads me to believe they're looking to plumb a position that they feared one or both of those teams were looking at, which - for my money would be QB or WR, most likely.

 

TME

Footballguy
I do not think they are trading up looking at RB. In 2003, they climbed up the draft board and found themselves at # 17 with a giant hole at RB. Much more so that where they are today. They passed on Jackson, Jones and Perry and took DJ Williams. They then grabbed Bell in the 2nd with the Portis pick. They were a top 5 offense last year and I do not know that adding a highly touted RB really changes or improves that offense.

I think they will look defense again. Lately, they have been drafting to beat the Colts. A lot of DBs last year and this year they may be thinking more pass rush (which the Steelers proved is helpful to beat the Colts).

The safe bet is that they will draft an RB, as they most always do it seems, but it will be the ususal gig.

:2cents:

 

cstu

Footballguy
I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?

1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn

1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M

1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia

1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas

1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan

1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia

2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah

2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)

2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma

2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh

2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out of a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
I just don't see why everyone believes Denver is so good at drafting RBs? :no: I see Portis, TD and I guess Mike Anderson...that's it. The rest of the picks are nothing to write home about. Coaches Bobby Turner and Alex Gibbs are much more responsible for the developement of the Denver running game than any of Shannahan's draft picks. Don't forget that Shanahan called Kevan Barlow the "best RB in the draft" one year...his RB picks have been nothing special. Overrated :yes: is the word...

:football:
I have always taken the position that Shanahan gets too much credit for drafting Davis. If he were such a keen evaluator of talent, and therefore knew what he would become, there is no way he would have passed on him in the 4th and 5th rounds of that draft. Hell, he would have been stupid to pass on him in the 3rd round. No, that was a bit of dumb luck in my book.
I can't stand Shanny, but he deserves the credit he gets. He drafted TD when people were content to let him keep dropping. Why would he take him sooner if he thought no one else wanted him? That one of the basics of VBD. I also don't get how you can ignore him getting Gary in the 4th (1000 yard rusher rookie year, 4.2 YPC) and Mike Anderson in the 6th (2 time 1000 yard rushing, including his rookie year and last year, 4.4 Career YPC). Not to mention getting Portis who turned out to be the best RB from his class and Bell who hasn't stayed healthy enough to get the full-time job but has a whopping career YPC of 5.3.
 

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
i wouldn't disagree that bobby turner & alex gibbs have had a profound impact on DEN running game... arguably more than shanahan's draft picks... you don't have to be shanahan to see that if gary & anderson suceeded, guys like williams, white & maroney could be powerhouses... that speaks to the SYSTEM & SCHEME, which turner & gibbs played large role in architecting... of course, at some level, shanahan deserves some props for HIRING them... :)

outstanding, well thought out reply, pony boy... thanx for taking time to adequately convey local insight, which i always appreciate, around the league...

part of my harping on this is i can't see dayne actually lasting as the lead RB... & i was disappointed in shanahan's use (ie - non-use) of bell in the playoffs...

i actually thought bell looked very explosive & portis-like when afforded the opportunity... maybe allowing MA to walk could be construed as vote of confidence in bell... imo, he could get 1,300 yards in his sleep if given the chance & if he held up (last an important if)...

maybe this is a case of my imagination running away... it is tantalizing, though, to think what williams, white or maroney could do in that attack...

i agree they have needs at OL & WR... though OL still playing at very high level, & as you noted, the gibbs MO (borrowed from SFs late OL coach mccitrick (sp?)) was to take undervalued, "undersized" but athletic, quick OL in mid-late rounds...

and while they could use an elite DEs (we could no doubt say this about more than 20 teams in the league)... skeletor has crafted a much better defense than the one that was routed by IND in 2004 playoffs...

they have a solid DL rotation (though bet they would like to have berry & hayward, as you noted)... maybe the fastest & best LB trio in the NFL (CHI might have best duo)... & with additions of bailey in 2004 via portis trade, lynch in FA & drafting of williams & foxworth in draft last season, they are upgraded in four of the five most important secondary positions relative to before their additions... not sure how SS is compared to kenoy kennedy, but even if he was a slight dropoff, they would be much better overall in secondary on a net basis.

i'm just not sure if a hali or kiwanuka are going to be good value at 15... or for that matter, what OT or OG would be (mcneil?)... that could be a case of positional reach at expense of BPA... & as you said, there is at least as much a precedent to NOT do that for OL as there is in case of RB (they did uncharacteristically take foster few years ago)... WRs chad jackson or santonio holmes could be good value at #15... maybe TE like byrd at #22?

IF williams, white or maroney are viewed as huge upgrades over incumbents by skeletor & turner (which is hypothetical, & exactly the point that is in dispute here... but one i find very possible, if not probable)... they may see an addition like that of greater overall impact... short & long term... than one of a possible second-third tier DE... some scouts think kiwi carries a high bust risk... i don't think as many would view deangelo in the same boom/bust terms...

if they had DL for 3-4 (maybe they do with warren as NT, brown & lang big DEs that could handle 3-4 DE), a team with wilson & DJ on inside & gold & manny lawson or kamerion wimbley on outside would be scary... :)

 

coolnerd

Footballguy
I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?

1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn

1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M

1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia

1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas

1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan

1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia

2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah

2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)

2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma

2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh

2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out of a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
I just don't see why everyone believes Denver is so good at drafting RBs? :no: I see Portis, TD and I guess Mike Anderson...that's it. The rest of the picks are nothing to write home about. Coaches Bobby Turner and Alex Gibbs are much more responsible for the developement of the Denver running game than any of Shannahan's draft picks. Don't forget that Shanahan called Kevan Barlow the "best RB in the draft" one year...his RB picks have been nothing special. Overrated :yes: is the word...

:football:
I have always taken the position that Shanahan gets too much credit for drafting Davis. If he were such a keen evaluator of talent, and therefore knew what he would become, there is no way he would have passed on him in the 4th and 5th rounds of that draft. Hell, he would have been stupid to pass on him in the 3rd round. No, that was a bit of dumb luck in my book.
Teams that get the reputation as being good drafting this position late or developing whatever position make a commitment to throwing numbes of bodies at the those positions. Denver is committed to drafting a certain type RB even when they don't "need" one. I am guessing that you will be hard pressed to find another organization that has drafted 12 rbs over the same time frame, especially when you consider that the running game has not sucked at anytime during that period. You will find that Steelers do the same thing @ LB. Lots mid to late round bodies.

 

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?

1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn

1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M

1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia

1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas

1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan

1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia

2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah

2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)

2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma

2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh

2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out of a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
I just don't see why everyone believes Denver is so good at drafting RBs? :no: I see Portis, TD and I guess Mike Anderson...that's it. The rest of the picks are nothing to write home about. Coaches Bobby Turner and Alex Gibbs are much more responsible for the developement of the Denver running game than any of Shannahan's draft picks. Don't forget that Shanahan called Kevan Barlow the "best RB in the draft" one year...his RB picks have been nothing special. Overrated :yes: is the word...

:football:
I have always taken the position that Shanahan gets too much credit for drafting Davis. If he were such a keen evaluator of talent, and therefore knew what he would become, there is no way he would have passed on him in the 4th and 5th rounds of that draft. Hell, he would have been stupid to pass on him in the 3rd round. No, that was a bit of dumb luck in my book.
this is reasonable... he almost certainly didn't realize how good davis was... it would have been hard for anybody... he had injuries in college, didn't really distinguish himself, didn't test off-the-charts... but maybe it is a case where i would credit him for realizing he had a chance to be good than faulting him for not realizing he was an extraordinary talent...

as was alluded to above in general... cowboys may have thought canty was first round talent (many did... BEFORE knee & eye injuries)... but they knew they didn't need to draft him there... when he fell far enough (bottom of third or fourth), they made a surgical move & traded up to secure him...

i don't think parcells & jones are any less shrewd for not taking him earlier than they needed to... actually, it is the opposite... correct valuation is an important component of the draft process... as well as talent evaluation...

 
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I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?

1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn

1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M

1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia

1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas

1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan

1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia

2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah

2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)

2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma

2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh

2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out of a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
I just don't see why everyone believes Denver is so good at drafting RBs? :no: I see Portis, TD and I guess Mike Anderson...that's it. The rest of the picks are nothing to write home about. Coaches Bobby Turner and Alex Gibbs are much more responsible for the developement of the Denver running game than any of Shannahan's draft picks. Don't forget that Shanahan called Kevan Barlow the "best RB in the draft" one year...his RB picks have been nothing special. Overrated :yes: is the word...

:football:
I have always taken the position that Shanahan gets too much credit for drafting Davis. If he were such a keen evaluator of talent, and therefore knew what he would become, there is no way he would have passed on him in the 4th and 5th rounds of that draft. Hell, he would have been stupid to pass on him in the 3rd round. No, that was a bit of dumb luck in my book.
I can't stand Shanny, but he deserves the credit he gets. He drafted TD when people were content to let him keep dropping. Why would he take him sooner if he thought no one else wanted him? That one of the basics of VBD. I also don't get how you can ignore him getting Gary in the 4th (1000 yard rusher rookie year, 4.2 YPC) and Mike Anderson in the 6th (2 time 1000 yard rushing, including his rookie year and last year, 4.4 Career YPC). Not to mention getting Portis who turned out to be the best RB from his class and Bell who hasn't stayed healthy enough to get the full-time job but has a whopping career YPC of 5.3.
I agree you don't take Davis in the first round even if you think he is the best back in the draft when you know nobody will be considering him before the 4th round. But to pretend that Shanhan knew what he had yet risked losing it by letting him slide in the 4th and 5th rounds is nothing short of preposterous. It was the 6th round. He took a flyer. He got lucky.As for ignoring the other backs I have not done so. I strictly limited my comments to the Davis matter. Frankly I think Bobby turner is the evaluator of R.B. talent. I think he and Gibbs were an exceptional team at identifying backs that would fit the system and obtaining good value. I merely said that Shanhan gets too much credit based on the Davis pick. I do give Shanahaqn this credit as GM. He has been smart enough to listen to the input of Gibbs, and now Turner, and of Course Kubiac. Too bad he always listens to himself on Q.B.'s and W.R.'s.

 
I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?

1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn

1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M

1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia

1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas

1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan

1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia

2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah

2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)

2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma

2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh

2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out of a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
I just don't see why everyone believes Denver is so good at drafting RBs? :no: I see Portis, TD and I guess Mike Anderson...that's it. The rest of the picks are nothing to write home about. Coaches Bobby Turner and Alex Gibbs are much more responsible for the developement of the Denver running game than any of Shannahan's draft picks. Don't forget that Shanahan called Kevan Barlow the "best RB in the draft" one year...his RB picks have been nothing special. Overrated :yes: is the word...

:football:
I have always taken the position that Shanahan gets too much credit for drafting Davis. If he were such a keen evaluator of talent, and therefore knew what he would become, there is no way he would have passed on him in the 4th and 5th rounds of that draft. Hell, he would have been stupid to pass on him in the 3rd round. No, that was a bit of dumb luck in my book.
this is reasonable... he almost certainly didn't realize how good davis was... it would have been hard for anybody... he had injuries in college, didn't really distinguish himself, didn't test off-the-charts... but maybe it is a case where i would credit him for realizing he had a chance to be good than faulting him for not realizing he was an extraordinary talent...

as was alluded to above in general... cowboys may have thought canty was first round talent (many did... BEFORE knee & eye injuries)... but they knew they didn't need to draft him there... when he fell far enough (bottom of third or fourth), they made a surgical move & traded up to secure him...

i don't think parcells & jones are any less shrewd for not taking him earlier than they needed to... actually, it is the opposite... correct valuation is an important component of the draft process... as well as talent evaluation...
Thanks for the rather insulting lesson in the basics of VBD.Certainly I appreciate that among the considerations for a player being drafted are considerations on how far you believe the player will slide. You factor that in with your belief of a players ability, your needs, and the risk that someone else will have also perceived the player's value. All I am saying is that you don't let a pro bowler slip to the sixth round if you have accurately evaluated his talent because you will percieve a risk that someone else has a similar evaluation. If Shanahan was trying to guess to that extent how 31 other teams percieved the value of a player he knew would have Davis' impact, and he risked losing that impact to gain a VBD advantage in the 4th and 5th rounds he should be run out of Denver. The risk reward ration is just to far out of skew.

 

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
no insult intended, DW...

sorry if that came off that way... let me make clear for perpetuity i respect your POV... if my phrasing seems ambiguous on that score (now or in the future), i take responsibility for fact that i must have expressed my point clumsily...

i understand your point... if he KNEW how good he was going to be... he should have tried to trade up to take him with #1 overall pick...

MY point was it was hard to fault him when NOBODY else realized that either... & its hard to see how ANYBODY could have foreseen how he would blossom in that system... as i said, he didn't distinguish himself at TEN to the point where it is easy to see how anybody could have seen his greatness...

where i disagree is why not give him props for suspecting he might be a good fit in the system... thats different case from blind luck...

but i don't know if i can explain that point any better... & canty was not a good choice to illustrate that point... i could have made it more directly...

i give him credit for fact that he was smarter than 31 other teams... better than everybody else in the league in recognizing & identifying the POTENTIAL talent of a player that carried a sixth round grade or worse...

my point wasn't that shanahan realized how good he would ultimately turn out to be... but than waited until sixth to get him (because he probably could in VBD sense), & risk getting scooped by JUST ONE of 31 other teams... you are right to point out that would be idiotic (you didn't say that verbatim, but i think that is fair representation of the gist)...

i don't dispute that... we just seem to differ on whether we should construe the way davis was drafted & characterize the aftermath as "blind luck"...

* edit/add - when mendel released his plant geneology studies that put together some very important pieces of the puzzle that came to be known as the modern science of genetics... they languished in obscurity for several decades... where they were simultaneously re-DISCOVERED by three biologists in different parts of the globe...

while they languished in obscurity, it would be hard for me to point the finger at any one particular scientist for dropping the ball... aside from the fact that information wasn't disseminated so widely & rapidly as now... even for those who might have been exposed to it in obscure journal... it would be hard for me that scientists "dropped the ball" by not appreciating significance of findings... NOBODY did at that time...

 
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no insult intended, DW...

sorry if that came off that way... let me make clear for perpetuity i respect your POV... if my phrasing seems ambiguous on that score (now or in the future), i take responsibility for fact that i must have expressed my point clumsily...

i understand your point... if he KNEW how good he was going to be... he should have tride to trade up to take him with #1 overall pick...

MY point was it was hard to fault him when NOBODY else realized that either... & its hard to see how ANYBODY could have foreseen how he would blossom in that system... as i said, he didn't distinguish himself at TEN to the point where it is easy to see how anybody could have seen his greatness...

where i disagree is why not give him props for suspecting he might be a good fit in the system... thats different case from blind luck...

but i don't know if i can explain that point any better... & canty was not a good choice to illustrate that point... i could have made it more directly...

i give him credit for fact that he was smarter than 31 other teams... better than everybody else in the league in recognizing & identifying the POTENTIAL talent of a player that carried a sixth round grade or worse...

my point wasn't that shanahan realized how good he would ultimately turn out to be... but than waited until sixth to get him (because he probably could in VBD sense), & risk getting scooped by JUST ONE of 31 other teams... you are right to point out that would be idiotic (you didn't say that verbatim, but i think that is fair representation of the gist)...

i don't dispute that... we just seem to differ on whether we should construe the way he was drafted & the way we characterize the aftermath as "blind luck"...
I would not go so far as to characterize Shanahan's selection of Davis as "blind luck". Shanahan saw some potential, but who didn't. Davis was at one time the touted heir apparent at a big time program. My point is he took a guy, for need, more or less exactly where every other team had him evaluated. For doing so I give Shanahan no great credit. I believe that basing one's argument on his R.B. acumen on this particular pick to be foolish. It was a routine, business as usual pick for Shanahan, and would have been for most any other G.M. at that point.If one wants to argue Shanhan's acumen I think his picks of Anderson (from an unusual background) or Portis(having passed over others) or even Bell and Gary are better evidence. Those picks evidenced thought and evaluation of talent and fit. The pick of Davis could have been made by a computer as he was the next one off the board more or less.

As for insulting me I was just busting your chops getting you ready for the fun in TOCOL. I'm an attorney, I can't be insulted.

 
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Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
I posted this in another Denver drafts a RB early thread . . .

When has Shanny invested a first rounder in a RB?

1988: 9-6 Reggie Ware RB Auburn

1989: 6-17 Doug Lloyd RB North Dakota State, 8-10 Derrick Gainer RB Florida A&M

1995: 6-25 Terrell Davis RB Georgia

1996: 3-4 Detron Smith RB Texas A&M, 7-26 L.T. Levine RB Kansas

1998: 4-4 Curtis Alexander RB Alabama, 5-5 Chris Howard RB Michigan

1999: 4-32 Olandis Gary RB Georgia

2000: 6-23 Mike Anderson RB Utah

2002: 2-19 Clinton Portis RB Miami (FL)

2003: 4-11 Quentin Griffin RB Oklahoma

2004: 2-9 Tatum Bell RB Oklahoma State, 7-46 Brandon Miree RB Pittsburgh

2005: 3-37 Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Shanahan has done well picking rabbits out of a hat before, and I don't think that they pull the trigger this year either. My spidey sense thinks that they are looking to package some picks to move up in the first (although that's pure speculation on my part).
I just don't see why everyone believes Denver is so good at drafting RBs? :no: I see Portis, TD and I guess Mike Anderson...that's it. The rest of the picks are nothing to write home about. Coaches Bobby Turner and Alex Gibbs are much more responsible for the developement of the Denver running game than any of Shannahan's draft picks. Don't forget that Shanahan called Kevan Barlow the "best RB in the draft" one year...his RB picks have been nothing special. Overrated :yes: is the word...

:football:
I have always taken the position that Shanahan gets too much credit for drafting Davis. If he were such a keen evaluator of talent, and therefore knew what he would become, there is no way he would have passed on him in the 4th and 5th rounds of that draft. Hell, he would have been stupid to pass on him in the 3rd round. No, that was a bit of dumb luck in my book.
i used phrase blind luck in response to you calling it dumb luck in last sentence of your first post... not to put too fine a point on it, but that was what i was objecting too... if that wasn't what you meant, i probably never would of responded to that particular part of the argument... at least not in the same way...* now i'm busting your chops... :) viva la TOCOL!

** because you have dissed skeletor, he has called upon his global network of monster & superhero contacts to direct world famous geneticist/rapper r kelley to PEA on you...

*** as to never thinking you would hear mendel's name invoded in a dialogue about skeletor RB talent/skill evaluation acumen... you aren't the only one... :)

 
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This will be a fascinating draft for the Broncos. They will potentially be tempted to try to trade up with the Packers if Mario falls so far, yet the Walker scenarios may effect this or leave hard feelings.

They could stand pat and address both D.E. and W.R.

They stand about a 50% chance of being confronted with LenDale White during both picks and Deangelo during one pick which has to be tempting, but may offer great trade incentive. This is made even more fascinating in that teams with great incentive to get those backs are teams like New England and Pittsburgh who the Broncos have to feel they are in direct competition with this coming year.

This draft will tell us more about Shanahan than the previous nine drafts combined.

 

Chaos Commish

Footballguy
Okay, we need to stop thinking like wishful FF owners when it comes to the draft. Believe it not, some teams will pick O-linemen & DTs in the first round, even though we as FF owners thinks they need to upgrade their skill positions - because that's where the team's area of greatest need is.

When looking at DEN from this perspective, the positions of greatest need are easily WR & a DE that can bring significant pressure off the edge, and then maybe TE & O-line.
I don't think it's a case of "wishful FF owners." We've mocked this draft out ad nauseum. Denver's move up and free agency results have created interesting scenarios. Woodrow, me and others have argued that round 1 is not and should not be about team needs alone. It has to be focused on uncovering elite talent. Therein lies the interesting scenario for Denver. They have needs at two positions in which this draft is both weak and muddled. The best DEs-- Hali, Kiwi, Lawson, Wimbley-- all have big question marks. The two most promising look like 3-4 OLB conversions. Very similar talent is available later in the draft-- Tapp, Edwards, Anderson-- there's not much difference, and none look "1st round elite." The same situation can be described at WR. If Denver needs to meet those needs, then they should have done it, or should still try to do it in free agency.

It's pick 15. Hali, Kiwi, Lawson? Chad Jackson, Santonio Holmes? All guys who will probably be productive in the NFL. Maybe Jackson and Lawson can become elite with their freak measureables... big big maybe. Quite possibly still looking for a home on draft day is LenDale White, who could be Terrell Davis on crack, and DeAngelo Williams, who could be LT3-- much smaller maybes in both cases. The available DEs and WRs don't have the high grades of the RBs. They also have near equal company in later rounds.

I don't think Denver will take a round 1 RB, but I don't think it would be a mistake if they did.

 

EBF

Footballguy
Another thing to remember: you don't need to use your highest pick on your area of greatest need.

 
I'm wondering how much of their draft Denver would give the Packers for Javon walker and the #5 pick if Mario is still on the board. Talk about two major upgrades for the Broncos (I assume Walker will fully recover)

 

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
Okay, we need to stop thinking like wishful FF owners when it comes to the draft.  Believe it not, some teams will pick O-linemen & DTs in the first round, even though we as FF owners thinks they need to upgrade their skill positions - because that's where the team's area of greatest need is.

When looking at DEN from this perspective, the positions of greatest need are easily WR & a DE that can bring significant pressure off the edge, and then maybe TE & O-line. 
I don't think it's a case of "wishful FF owners." We've mocked this draft out ad nauseum. Denver's move up and free agency results have created interesting scenarios. Woodrow, me and others have argued that round 1 is not and should not be about team needs alone. It has to be focused on uncovering elite talent. Therein lies the interesting scenario for Denver. They have needs at two positions in which this draft is both weak and muddled. The best DEs-- Hali, Kiwi, Lawson, Wimbley-- all have big question marks. The two most promising look like 3-4 OLB conversions. Very similar talent is available later in the draft-- Tapp, Edwards, Anderson-- there's not much difference, and none look "1st round elite." The same situation can be described at WR. If Denver needs to meet those needs, then they should have done it, or should still try to do it in free agency.

It's pick 15. Hali, Kiwi, Lawson? Chad Jackson, Santonio Holmes? All guys who will probably be productive in the NFL. Maybe Jackson and Lawson can become elite with their freak measureables... big big maybe. Quite possibly still looking for a home on draft day is LenDale White, who could be Terrell Davis on crack, and DeAngelo Williams, who could be LT3-- much smaller maybes in both cases. The available DEs and WRs don't have the high grades of the RBs. They also have near equal company in later rounds.

I don't think Denver will take a round 1 RB, but I don't think it would be a mistake if they did.
nice take...though i wonder if williams & white drop to #22 (BTW, in suggesting broncos might break precedent, i wasn't assuming they would use the #15... it could be the #22... that said, i think it is distinct possibility if they covet one & aren't sure they will make it to them at #22)... that might mean they by definition didn't carry elite grades... at least where it is important... in the 32 warrooms (or some teams may grade them very high but not need a RB)...

i agree that i have williams & white graded WAY higher than potentially more marginal players like hali & santonio holmes... but they don't come without questions, either (not as severe, imo)...

williams is not tiny... but some backs his size struggle in run support, & that is very important in DEN (not the only, but maybe important lack that has led to bell's downfall so far, if it isn't too premature to say that?)... i have heard some scouts say he is OK, but mayock expressed some reservations, & i don't recall a lot of scouts loudly proclaiming that he was stoning LBs at senior bowl (how many do in college?)...

there are growing whispers that scouts are concerned with perceived immaturity on white's part... but the pro day sunday should tell us something about how big that factor might be weighted...

 
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Kit Fisto

Footballguy
I don't think it's a case of "wishful FF owners." We've mocked this draft out ad nauseum. Denver's move up and free agency results have created interesting scenarios.
Unless you're an NFL GM, you're a wishful FF owner.You can do mocks until you're blue in the face; that won't determine whom the Broncos draft one iota.

Find me a March mock from years past that turned out ANYTHING like the draft, and I'm sending you a crisp new c-note. Just a month ago, Leinart was a "lock" for New Orleans. How's that looking now? Speculation is fun, sure, but it's just that... fun.

 

P Boy

Footballguy
Another thing to remember: you don't need to use your highest pick on your area of greatest need.
That's true, but a team does not help itself much when it uses 1st round picks to draft into its strength - unless the value is so great that it can be justified.
 

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
most know this... but a big reason davis dropped was a nasty injury history... he made evil knieval's medical file look pristine in comparison...

that is why parcell's was able to steal martin in third...

priest went undrafted... i forget his history... but it is safe to say he was a late bloomer... :)

* ahman green, rudi johnson & dom davis have outproduced their draft spot in recent seasons... looks like LJ & maybe steven jackson should have been drafted higher in retrospect...

which might be another way to make DW's point... sometimes you just stumble on to these guys... even if you aren't skeletor.

 
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EBF

Footballguy
Another thing to remember: you don't need to use your highest pick on your area of greatest need.
That's true, but a team does not help itself much when it uses 1st round picks to draft into its strength - unless the value is so great that it can be justified.
I'm not really sure that RB is the team's strength. Dayne played well last season and Bell has been pretty solid, but neither guy has proven to be a dominant RB. I'm not going to go so far as to guarantee that Denver will draft a RB in the first, but I think there's a very good chance that they'll take White if he's available. I think he offers the right kind of skills to justify the pick. I don't know much about Denver's needs of defense, but I do know that they could use another WR. I also know that this year's class is pretty lackluster. Holmes may never be more than a #2, Jackson is an athlete who's done little as a football player, and Moss is severely undersized. I don't see a huge gap between these guys and someone like Demetrius Williams.

My point is that the idea of Denver taking a RB in the first isn't as absurd as it may seem. That doesn't mean it will happen, but it does seem like a realistic possibility.

 

P Boy

Footballguy
Another thing to remember: you don't need to use your highest pick on your area of greatest need.
That's true, but a team does not help itself much when it uses 1st round picks to draft into its strength - unless the value is so great that it can be justified.
I'm not really sure that RB is the team's strength. Dayne played well last season and Bell has been pretty solid, but neither guy has proven to be a dominant RB. I'm not going to go so far as to guarantee that Denver will draft a RB in the first, but I think there's a very good chance that they'll take White if he's available. I think he offers the right kind of skills to justify the pick.
Normally if a team only had Bell & Dayne I'd agree with you. But Shanahan has plugged in a number of RBs & turned in great numbers in the running game, with the notable exception of when he went with Quentin Griffin.That he can make the rushing offense one of the best in the NFL with virtually any RB who carries the ball makes RB much less of a priority than a position like WR, DE, TE, or O-line.

 

Z-Dog

Footballguy
Most teams would love an RB with a 4.2 YPC - the NFL average is usually around 3.9 - it's only that the Denver running game has been so much better than makes you look down your nose at 4.2 ypc (a mark which LT2 fell short of in '01 and '04, and which Emmitt Smith only exceeded four times in his career).

 

Chaos Commish

Footballguy
I don't think it's a case of "wishful FF owners." We've mocked this draft out ad nauseum. Denver's move up and free agency results have created interesting scenarios.
Unless you're an NFL GM, you're a wishful FF owner.
False. Discussing the draft before it happens has almost nothing to do with FF. After the draft, different story.
You can do mocks until you're blue in the face; that won't determine whom the Broncos draft one iota.
Nobody said it would. But by trying to understand the meeting of talent and needs in mock format, several of us are seeing a possibility for a certain situation. I'm explaining this because you apparently misunderstood some strange notion that mocks influence NFL personnel departments. You were in error.
Find me a March mock from years past that turned out ANYTHING like the draft, and I'm sending you a crisp new c-note.
Seriously? Maybe you're unaware of the 2004 draft and how dozens of mocks in late March nailed 75-80% of the first 15-20 picks? Does that qualify as "turning out ANYTHING like?" If so, do I get a crisp c-note for each one I find you? :thumbup:

 

cstu

Footballguy
Another thing to remember: you don't need to use your highest pick on your area of greatest need.
You also don't use your highest pick on RB when you have a OL that a bag of potatoes (Dayne) could run behind. With the glut of RB's out there it makes zero sense for the Broncos to draft a RB when they know they can bring in anyone and be successful running the ball.Taking Addai in the 2nd makes a lot for sense for the Broncos.

 
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EBF

Footballguy
Another thing to remember: you don't need to use your highest pick on your area of greatest need.
You also don't use your highest pick on RB when you have a OL that a bag of potatoes (Dayne) could run behind. With the glut of RB's out there it makes zero sense for the Broncos to draft a RB when they know they can bring in anyone and be successful running the ball.Taking Addai in the 2nd makes a lot for sense for the Broncos.
No one doubts that Dayne and Bell would be successful, but I think White could be dominant. There's a difference there. Remember that Terrell Davis played a big role in Shanahan's Super Bowl wins. Obviously Elway was a big part of that, but you can bet that Shanahan understands the value of a dominant RB. Right now, he doesn't have a dominant RB. I think White, above all the other backs in this draft, offers the potential to be dominant in Denver's system.

 
If Ricky wins his appeal I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him in Denver next year. This would be an ideal fit and allow the Broncos to address other areas with their early picks. Just a guess but I would think the Broncos could get RW for a 3rd or 4th if he gets cleared.

 
M

MLBrandow

Guest
As a fan of the sport of football, I would love if the Broncos were to somehow end up with LenDale White.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
Most teams would love an RB with a 4.2 YPC - the NFL average is usually around 3.9 - it's only that the Denver running game has been so much better than makes you look down your nose at 4.2 ypc (a mark which LT2 fell short of in '01 and '04, and which Emmitt Smith only exceeded four times in his career).
Since coming to Denver, Shanny's TEAM ypc has been 4.5, 4.5, 4.6, 4.7, 4.0, 4.5, 3.9, 5.0, 4.8, 4.4, and 4.7.
 

2stix

Footballguy
Denver will wait until the 2nd or 3rd To grab a RB.

I Say they have to address the WR situation before anything else.

say Chad Jackson

 

UnknownCoach

Footballguy
Someone mentioned that Denver is a team ready to win now but also said they should address a need like WR in the first round. Well, first year WRs dont make nearly the impact of first year RBs. In fact first year RBs usually have the biggest immediate impact of any position. Addressing their future at aging positions over taking a RB isnt the advice for a team looking to win now. With free agency, you can address a position instantly any given year. They could have had TO, Moulds, or Keyshawn. Next year other FAs will be available.

Everyone makes these mock drafts where teams always fill their biggest need with their first round pick. Go look at any past draft. You'll probably find less than 50 percent of teams actually doing that in round 1. Most teams think about who the best player(s) available is/are before taking into account their team need. Free agency is more of a need filling agent than the draft.

Yes, Shanny has yet to use a first round pick on a RB. Yet he didnt hesitate to use two second round picks on them when he felt they were the BPA. Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson were the only two late round gems they really got. Anderson only fell that far due to his age. Had he been young, he was a likely second round pick. Davis was the only real needle in a haystack type of pick. Davis and Portis have been the only two hall of fame talents selected in all those years of selecting RBs. Portis was the 4th RB off the board and not talented enough for Denver to pony up the cash when it was clear they would have had to pay him. Yes, Denver hasnt paid a RB franchise money since TD. At 15 and 22, they still wont have to.

Denver will take the best player available. They have two picks. If a RB is the BPA, one will probably be a RB. That's their best bet to win now. At 15 and 22, I'm guessing that a RB wont be the BPA. However if Williams falls that far or they feel Maroney or White is the man, I find no shock from that pick. As far as trading up, that's something a team only normally does if they really want an individual. However the earlier trade up was probably just a value move where they were the lucky team in the right spot at the right time. Could they trade up again? Certainly. Will they? Only with the right offer and for the right player. I wouldnt bet on it happening. This is a team that is stubborn about getting the best end of a trade. Its not a team stubborn about not drafting a RB in early rounds.

 

coolnerd

Footballguy
Someone mentioned that Denver is a team ready to win now but also said they should address a need like WR in the first round. Well, first year WRs dont make nearly the impact of first year RBs. In fact first year RBs usually have the biggest immediate impact of any position. Addressing their future at aging positions over taking a RB isnt the advice for a team looking to win now. With free agency, you can address a position instantly any given year. They could have had TO, Moulds, or Keyshawn. Next year other FAs will be available.

Everyone makes these mock drafts where teams always fill their biggest need with their first round pick. Go look at any past draft. You'll probably find less than 50 percent of teams actually doing that in round 1. Most teams think about who the best player(s) available is/are before taking into account their team need. Free agency is more of a need filling agent than the draft.

Yes, Shanny has yet to use a first round pick on a RB. Yet he didnt hesitate to use two second round picks on them when he felt they were the BPA. Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson were the only two late round gems they really got. Anderson only fell that far due to his age. Had he been young, he was a likely second round pick. Davis was the only real needle in a haystack type of pick. Davis and Portis have been the only two hall of fame talents selected in all those years of selecting RBs. Portis was the 4th RB off the board and not talented enough for Denver to pony up the cash when it was clear they would have had to pay him. Yes, Denver hasnt paid a RB franchise money since TD. At 15 and 22, they still wont have to.

Denver will take the best player available. They have two picks. If a RB is the BPA, one will probably be a RB. That's their best bet to win now. At 15 and 22, I'm guessing that a RB wont be the BPA. However if Williams falls that far or they feel Maroney or White is the man, I find no shock from that pick. As far as trading up, that's something a team only normally does if they really want an individual. However the earlier trade up was probably just a value move where they were the lucky team in the right spot at the right time. Could they trade up again? Certainly. Will they? Only with the right offer and for the right player. I wouldnt bet on it happening. This is a team that is stubborn about getting the best end of a trade. Its not a team stubborn about not drafting a RB in early rounds.
Excellent post from someone who understands the draft process.
 

TME

Footballguy
Denver will take the best player available. They have two picks. If a RB is the BPA, one will probably be a RB. That's their best bet to win now.
I do not think drafting an RB helps them win now. They were the #5 overall offense last, #7 scoring offense and #2 rushing offense last year. Not much room for improvement. How does drafting a highly touted rookied RB really make a difference? It does not. It simply funnels what would be great production from Dayne/Bell combo (similar to Anderson/Bell last year) into one RB and makes him a probowl and FF stud.The offense really is not the probablem at all. If they want to win now, and they do, they need to draft to beat the Colts, which is the same things they did last year (only this year they have higher picks). They need to be able to stop the Colts offense. They need pass rush and pass coverage. Considering last year's draft, I would look for the former this year.

But I do agree, I think Denver is simply looking for flexibility and BPA. But, with that, they will have to keep in mind that they need to get young and talented WRs and DLs (which can have a more immediate impact) in the pipeline.

 

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
dayne looked OK in brief stretches... bell looked very good in slightly more action... it is unclear if the RBs currently on roster can do as well as MA did last season in feature RB role...

maybe broncs were #2 last season... but MA did most of damage & they don't have that guy any more...

williams or white are far more talented than dayne...

maybe they were #2 in rushing... but it wasn't good enough in the AFC championship game...

also, the steelers beat them in that game, so to the extent it makes sense to build to beat a team (some thought PHI did that with rams in mind when they drafted lewis, shepard & brown, but that helped them overall... ditto with broncs getting williams, foxworth & third CB eyeing colts... it helped them overall)... they should maybe as concerned with steelers as the colts...

i think earlier poster nailed it that it is tough for WR & DL to make immediate impact...

even though they were #2 in rushing... an upgrade, even if not a massive one, could be the difference between losing in playoffs & making the super bowl...

 

cstu

Footballguy
Denver will take the best player available. They have two picks. If a RB is the BPA, one will probably be a RB. That's their best bet to win now.
I do not think drafting an RB helps them win now. They were the #5 overall offense last, #7 scoring offense and #2 rushing offense last year. Not much room for improvement. How does drafting a highly touted rookied RB really make a difference? It does not. It simply funnels what would be great production from Dayne/Bell combo (similar to Anderson/Bell last year) into one RB and makes him a probowl and FF stud.The offense really is not the probablem at all. If they want to win now, and they do, they need to draft to beat the Colts, which is the same things they did last year (only this year they have higher picks). They need to be able to stop the Colts offense. They need pass rush and pass coverage. Considering last year's draft, I would look for the former this year.

But I do agree, I think Denver is simply looking for flexibility and BPA. But, with that, they will have to keep in mind that they need to get young and talented WRs and DLs (which can have a more immediate impact) in the pipeline.
I agree. Maybe I'm just not that high on White, but I don't understand how a better RB is going to help the Broncos more than a combo of Bell/Dayne/later round RB. We know that the Broncos don't need a star RB to be successful and that they can find RB's late to do well. With those two 1st round picks they can draft two defensive players who will help them win now and make a larger impact than a RB. Even a WR can help them more because they are weak at the position and are very dependent on Rod Smith staying healthy.
 

cstu

Footballguy
dayne looked OK in brief stretches... bell looked very good in slightly more action... it is unclear if the RBs currently on roster can do as well as MA did last season in feature RB role...

maybe broncs were #2 last season... but MA did most of damage & they don't have that guy any more...

williams or white are far more talented than dayne...

maybe they were #2 in rushing... but it wasn't good enough in the AFC championship game...

also, the steelers beat them in that game, so to the extent it makes sense to build to beat a team (some thought PHI did that with rams in mind when they drafted lewis, shepard & brown, but that helped them overall... ditto with broncs getting williams, foxworth & third CB eyeing colts... it helped them overall)... they should maybe as concerned with steelers as the colts...

i think earlier poster nailed it that it is tough for WR & DL to make immediate impact...

even though they were #2 in rushing... an upgrade, even if not a massive one, could be the difference between losing in playoffs & making the super bowl...
They didn't lose to the Steelers because of their rushing, it was their bad pass defense and Plummer throwing 2 INT's. The Broncos RB's only ran the ball 14 times but they averaged 4.8 YPC.
 

TME

Footballguy
i think earlier poster nailed it that it is tough for WR & DL to make immediate impact...
I think you can get immediate pass rush help from the draft. See Merriman, Ware, Freeney, Allen, Peppers, Smith, Suggs, Grant and Williams from recent drafts (currently some of the leagues best). It's no slam dunk, but no draft choice ever is.WR, on the other hand, is a position that takes longer to develop. But do not confuse having an impact with needing to be a 1,000 yard guy. Simply being the 3rd guy and contributing 500 yards would be a big help to the Broncos. They only have two WRs worth a crap right now. Throwing a Jackson in the mix. He could contribute and make an immediate impact. Be a legit 3rd option and a real threat on the field at all ranges as a rookie (like Chris Henry for the Bengals) as right now you seemingly really only need to cover Smith short to intermediate and Lelie deep. Some depth and versatility in the WR corp would help. It does not need to be a new #1 or #2 immediately

 

Bob_Magaw

Footballguy
MA averaged 4 yards a carry in championship game... he is no longer with team... i can't believe so many people assume dayne is going to become a HOFer just because he is running behind DEN OL... he looked OK in stretches... who knows if he can carry the load...

bell got the ball only 6 times against NE (6 for 19... slightly more than 3 YPC) & 5 times against steelers (5 for 31... but 27 of those yards were in last drive when it was very late in the game & PIT would have been dropping back to protect against long pass play... meaning for the vast majority of the game bell was 2 for 4 & a complete & utter non-factor)... giving bell a total of 11 carries in last two, biggest games of year for DEN doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement & vote of confidence on the part of skeletor to me?

BTW, in the game against NE, MA had about 20 carries for 60 yards... if brady hadn't thrown 2 INTs & they hadn't had so many fumbles, broncos EASILY could have lost that game... pats lost it as much as broncs won it, if you recall...

if people can't see how white has better movement skills & change of direction ability than dayne... watch the film... :)

people are also underestimating the bust risk of guys like hali & kiwanuka that may be available to them at 15 or 22... it is far from clear whether they would ever contribute... to think they would help a lot & have a push them over the top impact right away would seem unlikely given recent history of mid-late first round DL... mario williams is only DE who would have the kind of impact some are hoping for... & he will be LONG GONE...

i agree it would be good idea to get guy like jackson or holmes to groom as smith's successor... just don't expect them to set the world on fire in 2006... probably not an immediate impact...

& it is not mutually exclusive to get white/williams/maroney AND jackson/holmes.

 
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