Broncos RB. (3 Viewers)

[Biabreakable]

I do think being 3rd on the depth chart at this juncture means it's officially "put a fork in him" time for Moreno. Moreno's best hope was to start at the top and try to hold off the young guys. If he's starting at the bottom, I don't think he's got the talent to force his way up the chart.

So when both coach Fox and Hillman are saying how they list them on the depth chart does not mean anything, that they are still evaluating them all (all would include Moreno) through the preseason before making a decision, yet you are willing to jump to the conclusion that Moreno is done?

It very may well be that you are right but the information available is not saying that. Your bias against Moreno cannot be trusted.

 

[bostonfred]

I do think being 3rd on the depth chart at this juncture means it's officially "put a fork in him" time for Moreno. Moreno's best hope was to start at the top and try to hold off the young guys. If he's starting at the bottom, I don't think he's got the talent to force his way up the chart.

So when both coach Fox and Hillman are saying how they list them on the depth chart does not mean anything, that they are still evaluating them all (all would include Moreno) through the preseason before making a decision, yet you are willing to jump to the conclusion that Moreno is done?

It very may well be that you are right but the information available is not saying that. Your bias against Moreno cannot be trusted.

There are three players here. One has been a multi-year veteran who has been a feature back, one is a second year veteran, and one is a rookie in his first preseason.If there is an incumbent, it is the multi-year veteran. That would have been the case, if McGahee had stayed. It could have been the case, if the Broncos had loved Moreno so much down the stretch last year that he earned the starting job going forward until or unless one of the younger guys replaced him. In that case, you would expect the first depth chart to show the veteran at the top and the younger guys behind him. So while you're right to point out that the coach said the order doesn't matter, the information is still meaningful. I don't think it's impossible for Moreno to earn more playing time, but there's been no indication that he's done so, and being buried on the first depth chart is not a good sign for him at all.

Hillman is not an incumbent per se. At this point, he has earned his way to the top of the depth chart. It is also meaningful that the head coach then said that the order doesn't matter and it will all play out. This is not good news for Hillman's hold on the job, either. There is no good reason for a head coach to say that unless he expects competition for the top spot, and by listing the veteran incumbent third, he clearly expects that competition to come from Ball.

The scenario that seems most reasonable based on everything we've heard since he was drafted is that Ball has every chance to be the starter, but Hillman has done well enough in the offseason/preseason to earn the top spot for now. If Hillman continues to impress and Ball doesn't, then he would likely keep that top spot. But the coach's comments clearly indicate that they are hoping for more competition - both from Hillman and Ball/Moreno - before the start of the season, or else they would have named a starter and not given any qualifiers. Later on, if Ball passed Hillman, or if Hillman didn't look as good after a couple weeks of playing in pads, they could always change the depth chart. Pre announcing that it's not a done deal is meaningful information about their hopes and expectations for competition at the position.

Here are the scenarios as I see them:

1) Hillman - Upside is that he truly has the starting job, but gives up most or all of the red zone carries, and third down carries. Would be a decent fantasy RB2 in this scenario, but would have poor trade value in redrafts due to the concern he'd lose the job, and you would be uncomfortable running with him and not handcuffing him. Worst case barring injury is that he's the CoP guy, gets 5-10 touches a game, and ends up with about 700 yards and a couple TDs.

2) Ball - Upside is that he overtakes the starting role in the next two months (by week four or five in the regular season). He becomes a fantasy RB1 in this scenario, with plenty of carries and goal line looks in one of the top offenses in the NFL. Worst case barring injury is that he gets the red zone carries, and some of the wear-the-defense out and run-the-clock-out carries between the 20s and becomes a fantasy spot starter at best in that scenario.

3) Moreno - Upside is that he suddenly starts making noise, and the younger guys don't. He appears to have an uphill battle at this point, but he could be a fantasy RB1 if he secures the job. By far the more likely scenario at this point is the worst case scenario barring injury, which appears to be that he will be the #3 in a 60/30/10 type split. Minimal redraft or dynasty value as anything but a lottery ticket.

If I owned all three, I would be rooting for Ball to impress. He appears to have the most fantasy upside by virtue of the TD potential.

 

[Sabertooth]

I do think being 3rd on the depth chart at this juncture means it's officially "put a fork in him" time for Moreno. Moreno's best hope was to start at the top and try to hold off the young guys. If he's starting at the bottom, I don't think he's got the talent to force his way up the chart.

Well, I think you are wrong to assume that. He was a healthy scratch for several games last season before quickly taking over and destroying me in the fantasy championship game. He doesn't need talent. He's a good blocker and a solid player. I think they'll try Hillman out and find that he has trouble keeping weight on. I think Ball is a rookie. I think we see some type of three headed monster here.

 

[FDC]

Here are the scenarios as I see them:

1) Hillman - Upside is that he truly has the starting job, but gives up most or all of the red zone carries, and third down carries

“I think he has developed a pro body, which does take a while for rookies when they come into this league and he’s done a tremendous job. So, he has done nothing but strengthen my thoughts that he is capable [of being full time RB] and he looked very good today, as well as in the offseason.”

 

[Sabertooth]

Hillman was playing in the 170s last year. I doubt he can sustain 200+

 

[acme]

I bought into the Hillman hype last year but when I heard that he was playing around 170 lbs, I cut bait. Released him from my dynasty roster. He just isn't big enough.

Looks like you're going to regret that move.

--realistically, nobody just drops a player in dynasty unless they are also picking up someone they like better right? you just don't drop a player and leave the roster slot blank... very curious: who did you pick up to fill the void left when you cut Hillman?

 

[FDC]

Hillman was playing in the 170s last year. I doubt he can sustain 200+

The whole picture suggests Fox thinks he can hold up (and the quotes as well)

Hillman ran with the 1s in OTAs. Willis was released soon after that. Anything less than a superbowl is a disappointment for this team so I'm sure January wasn't forgotten about at the time of that release.

With so many years of watching Fox being stubborn in this type of situation - it would be almost impossible for me to see Ball earning the full time job outright. I posted the panthers 2007 splits earlier in this thread. Deshaun Foster was ineffective. Deangelo was more effective. Both were healthy for the most part. Deshaun started all 16 games and Deangelo was the 1st round pick in his 2nd year. The next year after Deshaun was released Deangelo had his 1500 + 18TD year.

 

[Sabertooth]

I bought into the Hillman hype last year but when I heard that he was playing around 170 lbs, I cut bait. Released him from my dynasty roster. He just isn't big enough.

Looks like you're going to regret that move.

--realistically, nobody just drops a player in dynasty unless they are also picking up someone they like better right? you just don't drop a player and leave the roster slot blank... very curious: who did you pick up to fill the void left when you cut Hillman?

I picked up Zach Ertz. This is a smallish league (10 teams, 24 roster spots)

 

[Faust]

Broncos not expected to buck trend at RB

By Jeff Legwold | ESPN.com

Since Terrell Davis powered his way to the 1998 NFL MVP award to go with 2,008 rushing yards in the Broncos' second of back-to-back Super Bowl seasons, since he was the unquestioned stopping point for a handoff in the offense, Denver has, by both necessity and choice, led the mix-and-match movement in the league's backfields.

Since the start of 1999, nine different running backs have led the Broncos in carries for at least one season. Over that 14-year span Denver has not had a running back lead the team in carries in three consecutive seasons.

And a team that once churned out 1,000-yard rushers like Apple products coming off the assembly line has now had just one back -- Willis McGahee in the read-option season of 2011 -- in the past six years finish with 1,000 yards.

What gives?

"It's probably a combination of things," said Broncos coach John Fox. "There are injuries, changes in the offense, changes in your personnel and just the nature of the job. That's a high-impact job in a bigger, faster, stronger league. I'm not sure anybody really sits there these days -- unless you have one of the top, top guys -- and thinks one guy is going to get you through."

And fantasy football owners be damned, the Broncos stand poised to break out the committee to run the ball once again in 2013. But how those carries will be divvied up might surprise some who watch a group that includes Ronnie Hillman, Montee Ball, Knowshon Moreno and Jacob Hester.

Because while running the ball is great -- it's in the position's name after all -- for the Broncos' backs to get the ball, they're going to have to be good when they don't have it.

"I've said, whenever a young guys asks me, everybody who gets to the league can run, everybody can catch, but here, the way the game is played right now, you have to block," said Davis, a Broncos Ring of Fame member. "So, learn how to block, do the work and block. That's what I tell them, even if they haven't done it before because they were the main option, because that's what will get you on the field in this league and here, with this team."

Or as Broncos running backs coach Eric Studesville said, "Bottom line: The better you do in pass protection, the more run opportunities you’re going to have. That's it. You aren't going to get the ball if we don't take care of the quarterback. They all know that, they are all aware of that. They don't get to run until we see the rest of it."

The Broncos certainly fit the league's profile for a passing team in a pass-first league. They have Peyton Manning at quarterback, they signed Wes Welker in free agency and their favorite formation on offense as the games grew in importance in 2012 was a three-wide receiver look.

They know defenses want to rush Manning in the middle of the formation, a formation they have to open up when they go to three wide receivers. That often puts the running back in the role of last man standing in pass protection, the guy who has to pick the most dangerous rusher who has broken free from the guys up front.

Make the right choice and there's a big play waiting in the offense. Make the wrong one and the quarterback will take a hit that almost always joins the list of biggest hits of the year and always carries the potential to crater a season.

So, open-field speed is great, vision in traffic a must, but the Broncos' runners know their to-do list has another rather large item on it that has nothing to do with any runs to glory. It's also why the committee appears to have formed again.

"We all know we have to keep Peyton from getting hit," Hillman said. "If you can't make the right choices in there blocking, you're probably not going to get the ball."

To that end, Hillman has put on about 15 pounds from last season and hovers closer to the 195-pound range, far better than the 178 pounds or so he came in at when the Broncos faced the Ravens in the playoffs in January. Hillman, entering his second season, is the most explosive runner the Broncos have, the big-play threat in an offense that wants more big-play runs this time around.

Ball, a rookie, spent plenty of extra time with Manning during offseason workouts in post-practice discussions about the nuances of protection schemes and the fine line between knowing when to stay in and block and when to leave the backfield to be the hot-read option.

Moreno, because of his knee troubles of recent seasons, and Hester have not shown the run skills in workouts the two youngsters have, but they are more proficient in those long-yardage responsibilities. Hester has appeared at both running back and fullback in practices, while Moreno, now up to 220 pounds, has also shown a proficiency in pass protection.

There is also the matter of audibles. Perhaps the biggest of Manning's many gifts at quarterback is his ability to change the play just before the snap to get his guys in the look that is the biggest problem for a defense.

Rams head coach Jeff Fisher, who faced Manning twice annually in Fisher's long tenure with the Titans, said, "He knows your intentions and he knows what to do, all before he snaps the ball. ... So even when you're right, there's a good chance you're wrong."

But for Manning's audibles to work, everybody else on offense has to be ready to make the changes as well. It's another hurdle for Hillman and Ball in their effort to be at the top of the rotation (when the Broncos released their first "official" depth chart of the preseason Sunday, Hillman was the No. 1 back).

“So, I always keep in my mind that they’re two young guys, but we have to age them, in terms of their knowledge of the offense, rapidly," Studesville said. “The reality of our offense is we do what the quarterback can do, so they have to catch up, they’ve got to get it. We're not going to put people out there who slow the quarterback down. If they don't understand that and don't get it, they won't play."

It's all important because the Broncos know people defend them with Manning as a passer at the top of the list. So, against a vast array of nickel, dime and other specialty defenses designed to stop problems in the air, the Broncos have to find a way to wind the clock, convert first downs, pound it in the end zone from in close and create explosive runs.

And while one back used to be enough for the job, Denver is more than comfortable using several once again in 2013.

"When we get those friendly boxes because of the way people defend Peyton, we have to feel comfortable with whoever we put back there to run it," Studesville said. "And when we get to the season, I think we will. We like this group."

And that's group, as in more than one.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball continue to share first-team reps.
Hillman was listed on top of the initial depth chart, but the competition is far from over. "He most definitely deserves it right now, but I'm going to try to take it," Ball said. The rookie has clearly been told that he has every chance to win the starting job for Week 1. He just has to earn it.

Related: Ronnie Hillman

Source: Denver Post

 

[bostonfred]

(KFFL)Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball reportedly had the best scrimmage over the weekend between RBs Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno. Ball and Hillman each worked with the No. 1 offense, but Hillman had little room to run. Moreno ran with the second unit.

http://www.kffl.com/player/25664/NFL/Montee-Ball

This seems to contradict the reports we were hearing earlier. Then again, it's got no real source ("reportedly"?), and they're talking about "over the weekend", when Cecil said that Hillman had an even bigger run than Ball. Curious about these conflicting reports...

 

[moleculo]

(KFFL)Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball reportedly had the best scrimmage over the weekend between RBs Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno. Ball and Hillman each worked with the No. 1 offense, but Hillman had little room to run. Moreno ran with the second unit.

http://www.kffl.com/player/25664/NFL/Montee-Ball

This seems to contradict the reports we were hearing earlier. Then again, it's got no real source ("reportedly"?), and they're talking about "over the weekend", when Cecil said that Hillman had an even bigger run than Ball. Curious about these conflicting reports...

Right now, the OL is a mess. None of the 2012 starters will be playing in the same position in the opening pre-season game... Clady has a shoulder issue, Franklin has the hip, Kuper with an ankle, Walton will be on PUP, Vasquez & Beadles are both sliding around to compensate.Beyond that, the D seems to be ahead of the O, at least in terms of the running game.

It's gonna be tough to get a fair evaluation of any backs running with the first team. Just wait - Moreno will be the most impressive back in Thursdays game just to confound the situation further.

 

[MAC_32]

So...how's it going in here?

 

[Cecil Lammey]

(KFFL)Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball reportedly had the best scrimmage over the weekend between RBs Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno. Ball and Hillman each worked with the No. 1 offense, but Hillman had little room to run. Moreno ran with the second unit.

http://www.kffl.com/player/25664/NFL/Montee-Ball

This seems to contradict the reports we were hearing earlier. Then again, it's got no real source ("reportedly"?), and they're talking about "over the weekend", when Cecil said that Hillman had an even bigger run than Ball. Curious about these conflicting reports...

Yahoo! was also in attendance for the Saturday scrimmage and they noted Hillman's 12-yard run. (Bumpman noted it earlier in this thread: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/moisture-cant-stop-manning-broncos-030903280--nfl.html -- The official website has pictures of Ball's 9-yard run as Manny Ramirez moved Stewart Bradley at the second level. David Bruton made the tackle.

 

[Faust]

Broncos rookie report: Ball's soft hands

Excerpt:

Running back Montee Ball. Ball has consistently said he "attacked'' the playbook before training camp as well as in his limited free time since the team began its preseason work. He is already at the top tier of the rotation in the run game -- a No. 1B to Ronnie Hillman's No. 1A status. Ball cannot match Hillman's speed or big-play ability. But Ball has good vision, quick feet and
has shown the team better hands in the passing game than some scouts believed he had. Ball is also bigger than Hillman -- Ball weighs about 214 pounds compared to Hillman's 195 -- so could appear in some scoring situations deep in the red zone. But Ball will have to continue to progress in pass protection to see work in longer-yardage situations.

 

[bostonfred]

(KFFL)Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball reportedly had the best scrimmage over the weekend between RBs Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno. Ball and Hillman each worked with the No. 1 offense, but Hillman had little room to run. Moreno ran with the second unit.

http://www.kffl.com/player/25664/NFL/Montee-Ball

This seems to contradict the reports we were hearing earlier. Then again, it's got no real source ("reportedly"?), and they're talking about "over the weekend", when Cecil said that Hillman had an even bigger run than Ball. Curious about these conflicting reports...

Yahoo! was also in attendance for the Saturday scrimmage and they noted Hillman's 12-yard run. (Bumpman noted it earlier in this thread: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/moisture-cant-stop-manning-broncos-030903280--nfl.html -- The official website has pictures of Ball's 9-yard run as Manny Ramirez moved Stewart Bradley at the second level. David Bruton made the tackle.

I'm trying to understand the difference between these reports. I'm trying to figure out what's really happening, not what you think you see, and not what other guys in the media think they see. You were strongly pro-Hillman last year, and you were questioned about it in the offseason. So there's a reason for people like me to be concerned about your ability to be partial. But everyone gets rookie fever, especially in the FF community. So there's reason for people like me to question the reports that say Ball is coming along nicely.

I'd like to believe that your reports are coming from an impartial reporter, but your reports about Hillman have been glowing. Your reports about Ball are never glowing.

Look at the difference between these two reports:

On their noteworthy accomplishments:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman: Hillman showed some power and pop today at the goal line. He got the attention of the crowd and the media when he trucked SS Duke Ihenacho on his way into the end zone.

No. 38 Montee Ball: Ball missed a block today that would have done two very bad things. First, the missed block would have been a safety with Manning sacked in the end zone. Second, Manning would have been crushed on the play had the defense been allowed to hit him.

The first two sentences of Hillman's description read like Mrs' Hillman's Guide To Broncos Camp. Hillman trucked people and got the attention of the crowd with power and pop and attention!

Oh, and Ball missed a block. Let's talk about how bad it would have been, too.

On their long runs:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman:On Monday Ihenacho horse collared Hillman on a run that would have been a 40+ yard TD. Today, it was Hillman who got payback. He did a good job as a receiver out of the backfield.

No. 38 Montee Ball:Ball showed more decisiveness as a runner when the hole wasn’t there. Once he did lower his head and try to push the pile for a yard or two. He was able to get to the second level once in practice where ILB Stewart Bradley quickly came in for the tackle.

You talk about how much better Hillman's stats would have been if he hadn't been horse collared. Might even have been a 40+ yard TD, if the guy who got his hands on him hadn't been able to make the tackle. The fact that he horse collared him is irrelevant to the story, but it makes it sound like Hillman's day was even better than reported. Then when you talk about Ball, you just say he lowered his head and tried to get a yard or two. Oh, and he got to the second level once, but you don't mention how far he got, you just mention that the linebacker came in quickly and tackled him.

On their ability to gain yardage:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman:I liked the way he would get skinny inside and create something when the hole wasn’t there. Hillman also spun to reverse his field and make a five yard run on a carry that should have been stuffed for a loss of five. He drew the praise of Broncos ring of fame Center Tom Nalen when he created on a run that was intended for the 2 hole, but he quickly bounced it to the 4 hole as the initial blocks opened nothing. Hillman created another way to gain positive yards when his blocking wasn’t there.

No. 38 Montee Ball:On all of his carries today Ball was averaging around three yards per carry.

So Ball averaged 3 yards per carry. How many yards per carry did Hillman average? You don't mention that, you just talk about how impressive it was that he was able to create something when the hole wasn't there.

This doesn't seem like unbiased reporting to me. It seems like you have an agenda. But I have an agenda, too - I love Ball this year. So I don't know if I'm seeing things I want to see, or you are, or both. And then I see other members of the media reporting on the same practice you attended, including the two directly above this which suggest that Ball impressed more than Hillman, who had little room to run, and that Ball has better hands than even the Broncos thought. Again, there could be a huge agenda from those observers clouding their reporting. Or not.

I don't mean this as an attack - I enjoy reading your reports and appreciate what you're trying to do. But I've got a lot of time and money invested in this hobby and I'd like to feel like I can trust the information I'm getting. Right now, I don't trust much of anything I've heard out of camp because everyone's contradicting each other.

 

[Todd Andrews]

(KFFL)Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball reportedly had the best scrimmage over the weekend between RBs Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno. Ball and Hillman each worked with the No. 1 offense, but Hillman had little room to run. Moreno ran with the second unit.

http://www.kffl.com/player/25664/NFL/Montee-Ball

This seems to contradict the reports we were hearing earlier. Then again, it's got no real source ("reportedly"?), and they're talking about "over the weekend", when Cecil said that Hillman had an even bigger run than Ball. Curious about these conflicting reports...

Yahoo! was also in attendance for the Saturday scrimmage and they noted Hillman's 12-yard run. (Bumpman noted it earlier in this thread: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/moisture-cant-stop-manning-broncos-030903280--nfl.html -- The official website has pictures of Ball's 9-yard run as Manny Ramirez moved Stewart Bradley at the second level. David Bruton made the tackle.

I'm trying to understand the difference between these reports. I'm trying to figure out what's really happening, not what you think you see, and not what other guys in the media think they see. You were strongly pro-Hillman last year, and you were questioned about it in the offseason. So there's a reason for people like me to be concerned about your ability to be partial. But everyone gets rookie fever, especially in the FF community. So there's reason for people like me to question the reports that say Ball is coming along nicely.

I'd like to believe that your reports are coming from an impartial reporter, but your reports about Hillman have been glowing. Your reports about Ball are never glowing.

Look at the difference between these two reports:

On their noteworthy accomplishments:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman: Hillman showed some power and pop today at the goal line. He got the attention of the crowd and the media when he trucked SS Duke Ihenacho on his way into the end zone.

No. 38 Montee Ball: Ball missed a block today that would have done two very bad things. First, the missed block would have been a safety with Manning sacked in the end zone. Second, Manning would have been crushed on the play had the defense been allowed to hit him.

The first two sentences of Hillman's description read like Mrs' Hillman's Guide To Broncos Camp. Hillman trucked people and got the attention of the crowd with power and pop and attention!

Oh, and Ball missed a block. Let's talk about how bad it would have been, too.

On their long runs:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman:On Monday Ihenacho horse collared Hillman on a run that would have been a 40+ yard TD. Today, it was Hillman who got payback. He did a good job as a receiver out of the backfield.

No. 38 Montee Ball:Ball showed more decisiveness as a runner when the hole wasn’t there. Once he did lower his head and try to push the pile for a yard or two. He was able to get to the second level once in practice where ILB Stewart Bradley quickly came in for the tackle.

You talk about how much better Hillman's stats would have been if he hadn't been horse collared. Might even have been a 40+ yard TD, if the guy who got his hands on him hadn't been able to make the tackle. The fact that he horse collared him is irrelevant to the story, but it makes it sound like Hillman's day was even better than reported. Then when you talk about Ball, you just say he lowered his head and tried to get a yard or two. Oh, and he got to the second level once, but you don't mention how far he got, you just mention that the linebacker came in quickly and tackled him.

On their ability to gain yardage:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman:I liked the way he would get skinny inside and create something when the hole wasn’t there. Hillman also spun to reverse his field and make a five yard run on a carry that should have been stuffed for a loss of five. He drew the praise of Broncos ring of fame Center Tom Nalen when he created on a run that was intended for the 2 hole, but he quickly bounced it to the 4 hole as the initial blocks opened nothing. Hillman created another way to gain positive yards when his blocking wasn’t there.

No. 38 Montee Ball:On all of his carries today Ball was averaging around three yards per carry.

So Ball averaged 3 yards per carry. How many yards per carry did Hillman average? You don't mention that, you just talk about how impressive it was that he was able to create something when the hole wasn't there.

This doesn't seem like unbiased reporting to me. It seems like you have an agenda. But I have an agenda, too - I love Ball this year. So I don't know if I'm seeing things I want to see, or you are, or both. And then I see other members of the media reporting on the same practice you attended, including the two directly above this which suggest that Ball impressed more than Hillman, who had little room to run, and that Ball has better hands than even the Broncos thought. Again, there could be a huge agenda from those observers clouding their reporting. Or not.

I don't mean this as an attack - I enjoy reading your reports and appreciate what you're trying to do. But I've got a lot of time and money invested in this hobby and I'd like to feel like I can trust the information I'm getting. Right now, I don't trust much of anything I've heard out of camp because everyone's contradicting each other.

Trust this: Hillman is the man!

 

[Dawg Pound 69]

People are making WAY too much of a few carries in a scrimmage. We're just going to have to let the preseason play out, as usual. I doubt the coaching staff cares who gained 9 yards on a carry and who gained 12. So why should the fantasy community ?

 

[shader]

(KFFL)Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball reportedly had the best scrimmage over the weekend between RBs Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno. Ball and Hillman each worked with the No. 1 offense, but Hillman had little room to run. Moreno ran with the second unit.

http://www.kffl.com/player/25664/NFL/Montee-Ball

This seems to contradict the reports we were hearing earlier. Then again, it's got no real source ("reportedly"?), and they're talking about "over the weekend", when Cecil said that Hillman had an even bigger run than Ball. Curious about these conflicting reports...

Yahoo! was also in attendance for the Saturday scrimmage and they noted Hillman's 12-yard run. (Bumpman noted it earlier in this thread: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/moisture-cant-stop-manning-broncos-030903280--nfl.html -- The official website has pictures of Ball's 9-yard run as Manny Ramirez moved Stewart Bradley at the second level. David Bruton made the tackle.

I'm trying to understand the difference between these reports. I'm trying to figure out what's really happening, not what you think you see, and not what other guys in the media think they see. You were strongly pro-Hillman last year, and you were questioned about it in the offseason. So there's a reason for people like me to be concerned about your ability to be partial. But everyone gets rookie fever, especially in the FF community. So there's reason for people like me to question the reports that say Ball is coming along nicely.I'd like to believe that your reports are coming from an impartial reporter, but your reports about Hillman have been glowing. Your reports about Ball are never glowing.

Look at the difference between these two reports:

On their noteworthy accomplishments:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman: Hillman showed some power and pop today at the goal line. He got the attention of the crowd and the media when he trucked SS Duke Ihenacho on his way into the end zone.

No. 38 Montee Ball: Ball missed a block today that would have done two very bad things. First, the missed block would have been a safety with Manning sacked in the end zone. Second, Manning would have been crushed on the play had the defense been allowed to hit him.

The first two sentences of Hillman's description read like Mrs' Hillman's Guide To Broncos Camp. Hillman trucked people and got the attention of the crowd with power and pop and attention!

Oh, and Ball missed a block. Let's talk about how bad it would have been, too.

On their long runs:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman:On Monday Ihenacho horse collared Hillman on a run that would have been a 40+ yard TD. Today, it was Hillman who got payback. He did a good job as a receiver out of the backfield.

No. 38 Montee Ball:Ball showed more decisiveness as a runner when the hole wasnt there. Once he did lower his head and try to push the pile for a yard or two. He was able to get to the second level once in practice where ILB Stewart Bradley quickly came in for the tackle.

You talk about how much better Hillman's stats would have been if he hadn't been horse collared. Might even have been a 40+ yard TD, if the guy who got his hands on him hadn't been able to make the tackle. The fact that he horse collared him is irrelevant to the story, but it makes it sound like Hillman's day was even better than reported. Then when you talk about Ball, you just say he lowered his head and tried to get a yard or two. Oh, and he got to the second level once, but you don't mention how far he got, you just mention that the linebacker came in quickly and tackled him.

On their ability to gain yardage:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman:I liked the way he would get skinny inside and create something when the hole wasnt there. Hillman also spun to reverse his field and make a five yard run on a carry that should have been stuffed for a loss of five. He drew the praise of Broncos ring of fame Center Tom Nalen when he created on a run that was intended for the 2 hole, but he quickly bounced it to the 4 hole as the initial blocks opened nothing. Hillman created another way to gain positive yards when his blocking wasnt there.

No. 38 Montee Ball:On all of his carries today Ball was averaging around three yards per carry.

So Ball averaged 3 yards per carry. How many yards per carry did Hillman average? You don't mention that, you just talk about how impressive it was that he was able to create something when the hole wasn't there.

This doesn't seem like unbiased reporting to me. It seems like you have an agenda. But I have an agenda, too - I love Ball this year. So I don't know if I'm seeing things I want to see, or you are, or both. And then I see other members of the media reporting on the same practice you attended, including the two directly above this which suggest that Ball impressed more than Hillman, who had little room to run, and that Ball has better hands than even the Broncos thought. Again, there could be a huge agenda from those observers clouding their reporting. Or not.

I don't mean this as an attack - I enjoy reading your reports and appreciate what you're trying to do. But I've got a lot of time and money invested in this hobby and I'd like to feel like I can trust the information I'm getting. Right now, I don't trust much of anything I've heard out of camp because everyone's contradicting each other.

It's an rbbc in a passing offense. Save yourself the stress.

 

[LawFitz]

It's an rbbc in a passing offense. Save yourself the stress.

Peyton Manning RBs have been very fruitful in fantasy pretty much every year. And this year, the difference making PM running back will come relatively cheap. The problem is you won't be able to start him right away and it may take half the season or more before you can. It's not the draft slot that's the biggest investment here, it's the roster spot.

 

[moleculo]

bfred - I'm not a gifted analyst, but by my untrained eye, Hillman is the guy to own, assuming equal cost.

Like I said earlier - I watched pass-blocking drills in camp on Monday. I saw Woodyard, a (mostly) coverage LB, blow up Ball. The very next play, I saw Hillman stone Von Miller. To me, that's enough right there. Pass-blocking gets you reps. Right now, Hillman's opportunity > Ball's opportunity. Beyond that, I believe Hillman has more big-play ability and therefore more likely to do something with his opportunity.

People are scared of Hillman in that he was down to 180 by the end of the season, and are skeptical that he can keep his new found weight all season. However - we need to remember that he was the youngest player in the league last year. It's very possible that he has not yet stopped growing. I know that I put on some (muscle) weight between 20 and 21, and that was without the benefit of NFL calibre training and nutrition regimen...hell, without any training regimen. I simply hadn't grown into a mans body yet (those who have met me might say I still haven't). IMO, Hillmans weight is not something to be scared of.

 

[LawFitz]

bfred - I'm not a gifted analyst, but by my untrained eye, Hillman is the guy to own, assuming equal cost.

Like I said earlier - I watched pass-blocking drills in camp on Monday. I saw Woodyard, a (mostly) coverage LB, blow up Ball. The very next play, I saw Hillman stone Von Miller. To me, that's enough right there. Pass-blocking gets you reps. Right now, Hillman's opportunity > Ball's opportunity. Beyond that, I believe Hillman has more big-play ability and therefore more likely to do something with his opportunity.

People are scared of Hillman in that he was down to 180 by the end of the season, and are skeptical that he can keep his new found weight all season. However - we need to remember that he was the youngest player in the league last year. It's very possible that he has not yet stopped growing. I know that I put on some (muscle) weight between 20 and 21, and that was without the benefit of NFL calibre training and nutrition regimen...hell, without any training regimen. I simply hadn't grown into a mans body yet (those who have met me might say I still haven't). IMO, Hillmans weight is not something to be scared of.

Terrific point.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Ball looking like he may be the least valuable rookie this season. This situation could end up being a rbbc for the next few years.

 

[Kenny Powers]

People are making WAY too much of a few carries in a scrimmage. We're just going to have to let the preseason play out, as usual. I doubt the coaching staff cares who gained 9 yards on a carry and who gained 12. So why should the fantasy community ?

Yeah, this whole 9yd run vs 12yd run thing comes across as a #### measuring contest between Hillman supporters vs Ball supporters when reading this thread.

 

[bostonfred]

bfred - I'm not a gifted analyst, but by my untrained eye, Hillman is the guy to own, assuming equal cost.

Like I said earlier - I watched pass-blocking drills in camp on Monday. I saw Woodyard, a (mostly) coverage LB, blow up Ball. The very next play, I saw Hillman stone Von Miller. To me, that's enough right there. Pass-blocking gets you reps. Right now, Hillman's opportunity > Ball's opportunity. Beyond that, I believe Hillman has more big-play ability and therefore more likely to do something with his opportunity.

People are scared of Hillman in that he was down to 180 by the end of the season, and are skeptical that he can keep his new found weight all season. However - we need to remember that he was the youngest player in the league last year. It's very possible that he has not yet stopped growing. I know that I put on some (muscle) weight between 20 and 21, and that was without the benefit of NFL calibre training and nutrition regimen...hell, without any training regimen. I simply hadn't grown into a mans body yet (those who have met me might say I still haven't). IMO, Hillmans weight is not something to be scared of.

This is what I'm trying to find out. If this is the case - and continues to be the case - then I totally agree. But Ball's first day of camp was 5 days ago. Hillman's was 370 days ago. The scouting report on Ball has been that he's an excellent pass blocker. As someone who has invested in Ball in a dynasty league, I'm not particularly concerned that Hillman is better than Ball right now. What I'm looking for is the progression from Ball that they're hoping for. If I were looking to buy Hillman, or draft him in one of my other leagues, I'd be happy to hear that Hillman was succeeding at pass blocking, since it had been a notable problem for him in the past. But I'd also be very interested in whether Ball is becoming a better pass blocker.

I've said since April that I don't think Ball will start right away - I expected him to become the primary ball carrier in October. I expect him to get red zone carries until then. That's consistent with what Cecil is saying, and Cecil seems to be as down on him as anyone. So my interest is in whether Ball looks as good as advertised in the red zone. I'm also interested in whether he is making strides in pass blocking. That's big. And I'm interested in whether he seems to be getting looks with the first team offense. So far the answer to that one is yes.

We can infer a lot of different things from the current situation. Is Hillman simply outplaying Ball? Has Hillman stepped up his game so much that he has become the starter that the Broncos (but not Elway, who has repeatedly referred to him as a CoP back) hoped he could become? Is Hillman the starter by default because they aren't going to hand the job to a rookie? Is Moreno's spot sucking hind teat on the depth chart indicative of their interest in seeing what the young guys can do? Or is it a message that he's the odd man out in the bid for #1 status? And is Ball playing well enough that he is on target for a week 5 start, if things progress as the people who compared him favorably to Terrell Davis originally seemed to hope?

These are legitimate questions - I have an opinion on what I think will happen, but I don't know the answers. And reporters who go to the Broncos camp are saying wildly different things - some think Ball is playing extremely well, others, including Cecil, think Hillman is far and away the best back in camp. Some people seem to be calling for a RBBC, but that's an outdated term. To some of us, it means that Hillman is playing between the 20s and Ball is the red zone back who will get fewer yards but enough TDs to be a spot starter. To others, it means that Ball will be the guy on first and second downs, but Ball will come in for CoP carries and maybe third down carries as well. Is the rumor of Ball splitting wide indicative of him becoming a full time back who can get touches in a lot of different ways? Or is it just the Broncos trying a bunch of things with him to see what sticks? Is his occasional absence in team drills indicative of him being fourth or fifth on the depth chart at a specific skill? Or is it that they're working with him on something totally separate?

Cecil is giving me a pessimistic answer for Ball on all of these questions. The one thing he's conceded is that Ball will be the red zone guy. But other than that, he seems to be incredibly pro-Hillman on everything. I think it's great that you went to camp, too, but your opinion is based on what you saw of a rookie in one of his very first drills. I'm loving the ongoing updates from Cecil, and I appreciate what you're saying, too. I also have an investment in Ball and I haven't heard anything that contradicts my original opinion of how this situation would shake out. I recognize that I have a bias, but I'm also listening to someone who's biased, and I'm trying to figure out where the line is.

 

[bostonfred]

Another example: Published Wed Aug 7 5:43:00 p.m. ET 2013


(Rotoworld)ESPN Broncos blogger Jeff Legwold reports Montee Ball is "already at the top tier" of Denver's backfield rotation as the "No. 1B" to Ronnie Hillman's "No. 1A" through two weeks of training camp.

Analysis: In other words, Ball is nipping at Hillman's heels. As Legwold notes, Ball weighs 214 pounds compared to Hillman's 195, making the rookie a better red-zone option. Legwold also reports Ball has shown "good vision, quick feet" and "better hands in the passing game than some scouts believed." To grab a true workhorse role, Ball is still going to have to make big strides in pass protection.

This sounds nothing like what Cecil's said.

 

[pizzatyme]

Different people see different things. Tom Brady was once a 6th rd. draft choice.

 

[purestrength]

I'd still like to think the underrated Moreno has a chance to start at some point this season, but I guess that ship has sailed.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'd still like to think the underrated Moreno has a chance to start at some point this season, but I guess that ship has sailed.

I would not be so quick to wave bon voyage to Moreno.

I just watched the 1st half of the Bronco's vs Raven's in the playoffs last season a bit earlier today. I figure this is how Manning/Bronco's offense operates when they are holding nothing back.

Moreno started the game. He makes some key blocks on Raven blitzers early on. Dan Dierdorf comments about how Moreno fakes the play action well and also picks up his blocking assignment in time after executing a good fake. These are the little things that a experienced pro does that the younger RB may take some time to develop as part of their game.

Moreno runs a couple draws and some other run plays but he does not manage much yardage. He does convert one 1st down, but he was not running well. I do wonder if he has lost some of his speed due to his injury? That does happen with players with major injuries some times, they never get back to their pre-injury ability. I do worry about this in regards to Moreno. 2 years removed from the injury (sometime mid season I think) could mean some of that speed for Moreno returns, but that is something that remains to be seen. I think this is what Adam is eluding to about Moreno being done, and that may be the case. I still expect Moreno to get a lot of snaps because of his pass blocking ability either way.

Later in the 2nd quarter Hillman gets a couple carries. He is noticeably faster than Moreno, like a lot faster and he gets pretty good yardage on his runs. But then I did not see him again for the rest of the 1st half.

Next up was Hester who gets some runs including a carry on 4th down and 1 yard to go. The refs may have gifted him the 1st down there. It was close. The review cameras did not show the placement of the ball, so the play stood, but hard to say if he got it or not. I could see Ball perhaps taking over Hesters role in the offense if his pass blocking improves enough.

This is just one half of football in the biggest game the Bronco's played last season. This is the type of RBBC that I foresee for the RBs in 2013. Where they will exchange drives between the 3 players and even during drives as well. I see Ball taking over Hesters reps if he can get his pass blocking up to speed but I do not see any of these players taking over a full role in the offense.

This offense is built to pass the ball. I do not think the expectations should be the same as Bronco's teams pre Manning. The offensive line does not seem as good as it used to be either.

I do think Ball will emerge as the primary RB eventually, but that may not be until after Manning is gone. I would expect increased rushing attempts from the Bronco's offense in the season after Manning retires, or knock on wood, if Manning misses time. I am not seeing one RB become the main guy while Manning is in charge though. Maybe in 2014 but with expectation of super bowl or bust I do not see them leaning on Ball or any of the RB in 2013.

Please bear in mind that Monte Ball was a late 2nd round pick in a relatively weak draft class.

 

[Buffaloes]

I'd still like to think the underrated Moreno has a chance to start at some point this season, but I guess that ship has sailed.

i don't think anything is set in stone yet. the 1st preseason game hasn't even been played yet

 

[Biabreakable]

Denver Broncos Training Camp 2012: Knowshon Moreno is No Bust...Yet Denver Broncos training camp 2012 is well underway, and the focus for over almost 4,000 people at every practice open to the public for the most part has been one Peyton W. Manning. As I highlighted in my previous post, there are a lot of other interesting battles happening at Broncos training camp, and one such battle is 2009 first round pick Knowshon Moreno vs. himself.

Moreno had huge expectations coming into Denver nearly four years ago now, a 21 year old phenom who left Georgia after just his redshirt sophomore season. The playmaker looked coming out of college like he could be one of the best three-down backs in the game, with his ability to run inside, outside, and catch the ball out of the backfield. For then head coach Josh McDaniels' offensive scheme, Moreno was the perfect fit.

But when Moreno showed up late to his first training camp in 2009 with contractual negotiations taking longer than they should have, the injury bug latched on and hasn't really given him room to breathe ever since. Moreno was injured in his first pre-season game with the Broncos, a game I remember very clearly. Despite getting injured right away and battling various setbacks at the start of his career, Moreno was the only player drafted or signed out of college in 2009 who had more than 1,000 all-purpose yards that year.

Entering his fourth season in the NFL, coming off of a 2011 campaign where he only played in seven games and had a mere 37 carries, Moreno is battling the bust status--but is it warranted?

In his first two seasons in the NFL (2009-10), Moreno finished with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and while he didn't look quite like a featured back, he made the most out of a 2009-10 offensive line that was arguably one of the worst I have seen at run blocking in quite some time, and maybe it's the eternal optimist in me, but over 1,000 yards from scrimmage indicates--especially since he was injured a lot of the time--that Moreno is doing something right.

As fate would have it, Moreno was playing probably the best game of his NFL career against the Chiefs in week 10 with four carries for 52 yards when he tore up his knee after a nice run.

Now, after months of what I assume to be dreadful rehabilitation and hard work, Moreno is back on the field for the Broncos at 2012 training camp with two years and a team option left on his contract, presumably fighting for his roster life. The Broncos are not overly deep at running back with returning Pro Bowler Willis McGahee, Lance Ball, and Jeremiah Johnson along with rookie Ronnie Hillman and "Blake Griffin" rookie Mario Fannin, among some others. Really, I think the only two backs who have solidified roster spots at this point are McGahee and Hillman, who signed his rookie deal at the dawn of camp.

If you think Knowshon is going to be getting cut, I say think again. Moreno's 2012 base salary is around $855,000, and he is slated to make $1.7 million in 2013. In terms of pure dollars and cents, Moreno is a huge steal. Getting a 25 year-old back, entering the prime of his career, on a two-year contract worth under $3 million is actually a huge steal.

The problem is, Moreno has not lived up to lofty first-round status. The argument of whether or not he is a bust will remain until he is off the team or he cracks 1,000 yards and becomes an indispensable asset to the team. Moreno barely saw the field a year ago, but he has been pretty valuable for the Broncos over the last three years, even if the team hasn't been all that great. He has 18 touchdowns since he entered the league, and even though he has only played in 20 games the last two seasons, I think his best days are on the horizon.

John Elway and the Broncos would be foolish to cut Moreno, and while nothing is impossible, I think his roster spot for the 2012 season is all but assured. What he does with that roster spot is up to him. As training camp presses on, ESPN is reporting that Moreno--who is slowly re-acclimating himself to football activities--is working with the Broncos' second unit behind McGahee.

Obviously, nothing is given in the NFL, and prior to last season, Moreno had been the Broncos' full-time starting tailback. Questions surround the former Georgia star, especially right now whether there will be enough balls to go around. John Fox's teams in Carolina didn't seem to have a problem getting carries or looks out of the backfield, and the Broncos could actually get creative and use Moreno as a slot receiver or use some dual back sets in the red zone, designing some pass plays to go his way.

Whatever the case, I don't think Knowshon Moreno is a bust...yet. He has a lot to prove, especially after an injury-plagued 2011 season and the worst numbers of his career, but entering the prime of his career and hopefully healthier than ever, maybe Moreno can finally be the back the Broncos drafted him to be, just four years later.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2012/7/30/3205119/denver-broncos-training-camp-2012-knowshon-moreno-is-no-bust-yet

Moreno had stem cells injected into his injured right knee following the season and is currently rehabbing. Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee following the end of the 2012 season, John Fox announced Thursday from the NFL Scouting Combine. Moreno had stem cells harvested from bone marrow in his pelvis and injected into his knee.

More Broncos coverage at Mile High Report

"Moreno tore the ACL in his right knee at the end of the 2011 season and left the Broncos playoff loss to the Ravens due to a knee injury suffered in the third quarter. He played in eight games during the 2012 season, rushing for 525 yards and four touchdowns on 138 carries; he also added 21 receptions for 167 yards. Moreno was ruled inactive for eight straight games from Week 3 through Week 11, but was reinserted as a starter following an injury to Willis McGahee.

After undergoing surgery, Moreno is now back at the Broncos' Dove Valley complex, rehabbing his knee. He is entering the final year of his rookie contract, with a club option available for the 2014 season."

Bah I wish I could format things properly.

Moreno has been through a lot and he may still not be fully recovered from most recent knee surgery at this time if he ever will be. It is certainly possible that he has lost significant ability.

Moreno did perform well after coming back from being inactive. But he really only had one great game out of the 5 he played-

2012-11-25@ KAN 20 85 4.25 4 26

2012-12-02 TAM 20 69 3.45 4 14
2012-12-06@ OAK 32 119 3.72 4 48 (36 touches for a guy coming off injury)
2012-12-16@ BAL 21 115 5.48 2 8
2012-12-23 CLE 22 78 3.55 5 49
2012-12-30 KAN 15 44 2.93 1 10

Moreno's performance does seem to rapidly decline in terms of ypc as the season wears on and then he gets injured again in the playoffs. Or maybe the Browns and Chiefs played very good defense. I will try to go back and watch those games.

For Moreno to work as a play action threat he needs to be a running threat or else the defense will just ignore it. This may be the main reason they are looking to replace him despite him being an accomplished pass blocker.

 

[bostonfred]

This offense is built to pass the ball. I do not think the expectations should be the same as Bronco's teams pre Manning. The offensive line does not seem as good as it used to be either.

The Broncos RB1 - McGahee for the first 10 games and Moreno for the last 6 - combined for 1800 yards and 8 TDs. With the addition of Welker and an increased tempo to their play calling, the Broncos will likely get more total offensive plays, more red zone trips, and play with more leads. All of those things favor Ball - IF he can take over the job as starter. You've made a good case for why that might not happen, but if it does, then 1500-1800 total yards and double digit TDs is totally achievable. If Hillman continues to demand the ball, and the team changes gears and keeps all of their backs active on game day unlike last year, then double digit TDs are still achievable, but the yards would obviously be lower.As for the offensive line, I'm less concerned about the actual talent on the line than I am about Manning's health. I don't think McGahee or Moreno were any great shakes last year. But Manning is excellent at making sure that the backs run almost exclusively in favorable situations. That's a huge advantage over all but a couple other teams in the NFL, and it's made JAGs like Ryan Grant, Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis look way better than they actually are. I'm not surprised at the reports that there's some early disarray in camp, especially with an injury to their center, but by the time the season rolls around, I don't expect it to be much of an issue in the passing or running game.

 

[bostonfred]

Which one of the running backs would you use in each of these situations?

Wear down the defense in the first quarter: Ball

Take advantage of the worn down defense for a big play: Hillman

Catch a pass out of the backfield: All three

Third and short: Hillman or Moreno, but Ball has also taken reps as third down back

Third and long: Hillman

Red zone carries: Ball

Goal line carries: Ball

Run the clock out: Ball or Moreno

Again, if it's a RBBC, it favors Ball unless Hillman can put his name next to more of these things.

 

[Biabreakable]

This offense is built to pass the ball. I do not think the expectations should be the same as Bronco's teams pre Manning. The offensive line does not seem as good as it used to be either.

The Broncos RB1 - McGahee for the first 10 games and Moreno for the last 6 - combined for 1800 yards and 8 TDs. With the addition of Welker and an increased tempo to their play calling, the Broncos will likely get more total offensive plays, more red zone trips, and play with more leads. All of those things favor Ball - IF he can take over the job as starter. You've made a good case for why that might not happen, but if it does, then 1500-1800 total yards and double digit TDs is totally achievable. If Hillman continues to demand the ball, and the team changes gears and keeps all of their backs active on game day unlike last year, then double digit TDs are still achievable, but the yards would obviously be lower.As for the offensive line, I'm less concerned about the actual talent on the line than I am about Manning's health. I don't think McGahee or Moreno were any great shakes last year. But Manning is excellent at making sure that the backs run almost exclusively in favorable situations. That's a huge advantage over all but a couple other teams in the NFL, and it's made JAGs like Ryan Grant, Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis look way better than they actually are. I'm not surprised at the reports that there's some early disarray in camp, especially with an injury to their center, but by the time the season rolls around, I don't expect it to be much of an issue in the passing or running game.

Well Fred what I mean by the Bronco's not being the same as pre Manning just look at the Bronco's rushing stats last season compared to 2011 and before that.

2012 481 1832 12TD 3.8
2011 546 2632 11TD 4.8
2010 398 1544 13TD 3.9
2009 440 1836 9TD 4.2
As a team they rushed for 800 less total yards and a full yard less ypc. Despite Manning putting the RB in favorable situations they did not perform up to the same standard. 481 rushing attempts is a lot for a team that likes to pass as much as they do. To expect more plays due to hurry up offense which they also ran last season does not have me seeing many more rushing attempts in total for 2013.

ETA Tebow did have 122ra for 660 yards which accounts for much of that difference though. Manning not quite Tebow lol

2008 and before that are much better performance with Skeletor/really good offensive line.

 

[mjr]

I think its great that guys like Cecil can provide updates from camp for us to read, and I appreciate it. But that said, I would tend to think a back having more time and experience in the league would naturally get more 1st team reps than a rookie trying to get up to speed during the first few weeks of camp, even in a wide open competition. The problem often is that many camp reports (regardless of the source or individual) seem to focus on this natural gap between players as an inequality in talent from which suggestive conclusions are drawn (who appears to be the lead back, a rbbc situation, etc.).

But, Hillman should be expected to have improved blocking ability. He's had over a year at the NFL level to work on it. Ball should be expected to need improvement in the same area, as its all completely new to him. Hillman should be expected to gain 12 yards on a play vs. Ball's 3 yards on another, as those are the particular qualities of each back.

What I would like to know is this: Is this gap between vet and rookie closing or widening? How fast (or slow) is Ball picking it all up? Did Hillman get those 12 yards on a 3rd and short situation? Did Ball get his 3 on a play deisgned for the long? Or were they both running the same situated play? Who tackled Hillman and ball? Where are they in the pecking order? These would be interesting things to know... The fact Hillman got a higher percentage of carries over Ball with the 1st team in the first week of camp is notable, but it's not really informative, particularly when its seemingly repeated in updates for a month straight.

 

[RushHour]

The Denver RB competition is too murky to really care about IMO. I feel like the amount of time spent talking and writing about this is disproportionate to the actual importance of this situation from a fantasy perspective.

 

[bostonfred]

This offense is built to pass the ball. I do not think the expectations should be the same as Bronco's teams pre Manning. The offensive line does not seem as good as it used to be either.

The Broncos RB1 - McGahee for the first 10 games and Moreno for the last 6 - combined for 1800 yards and 8 TDs. With the addition of Welker and an increased tempo to their play calling, the Broncos will likely get more total offensive plays, more red zone trips, and play with more leads. All of those things favor Ball - IF he can take over the job as starter. You've made a good case for why that might not happen, but if it does, then 1500-1800 total yards and double digit TDs is totally achievable. If Hillman continues to demand the ball, and the team changes gears and keeps all of their backs active on game day unlike last year, then double digit TDs are still achievable, but the yards would obviously be lower.As for the offensive line, I'm less concerned about the actual talent on the line than I am about Manning's health. I don't think McGahee or Moreno were any great shakes last year. But Manning is excellent at making sure that the backs run almost exclusively in favorable situations. That's a huge advantage over all but a couple other teams in the NFL, and it's made JAGs like Ryan Grant, Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis look way better than they actually are. I'm not surprised at the reports that there's some early disarray in camp, especially with an injury to their center, but by the time the season rolls around, I don't expect it to be much of an issue in the passing or running game.

Well Fred what I mean by the Bronco's not being the same as pre Manning just look at the Bronco's rushing stats last season compared to 2011 and before that.

2012 481 1832 12TD 3.8

2011 546 2632 11TD 4.8

As a team they rushed for 800 less total yards and a full yard less ypc. Despite Manning putting the RB in favorable situations they did not perform up to the same standard. 481 rushing attempts is a lot for a team that likes to pass as much as they do. To expect more plays due to hurry up offense which they also ran last season does not have me seeing many more rushing attempts in total for 2013.

ETA Tebow did have 122ra for 660 yards which accounts for much of that difference though. Manning not quite Tebow lol

Those teams bear no resemblance to this year's Broncos. Last year's Broncos are pretty much our only basis for comparison. We know that:- The Broncos RB1 was a fantasy RB1 for all of last year.

- Manning has said he wants to run an even faster paced offense. The Patriots ran 50 more offensive plays than they did, and the Saints 120 more. So the Broncos clearly can run a faster offense, and have said they want to.

- The Broncos added Welker, who lets you run more on first and/or second down, since he's reliable on third and 7.

- Another year of progress for Thomas and Decker, plus the addition of Welker, should get them into scoring position more often.

- They should also have more fourth quarter leads to protect, especially when 5 of their 16 games are against Oakland, San Diego and Jacksonville.

- I believe, and I know many others agree, that Elway envisions Ball as Manning's Terrell Davis, and that he's been filling Manning's head with these ideas since he recruited him to Denver. A feature back who can take a lot of the pressure off of the QB. One reason that we believe this is because Elway said this after drafting Ball: "When we were watching Montee, the one thing that stood out about his running style is that it's a lot like Terrell Davis, and so that got us very excited, and we hope that Montee has an even longer career than Terrell had," said Elway, who made his comments at a fan forum for season-ticket holders. "I have high expectations for him to come in and really help us with the running game," Elway said. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9254278/montee-ball-reminds-john-elway-denver-broncos-great-terrell-davis

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Another example: Published Wed Aug 7 5:43:00 p.m. ET 2013


(Rotoworld)ESPN Broncos blogger Jeff Legwold reports Montee Ball is "already at the top tier" of Denver's backfield rotation as the "No. 1B" to Ronnie Hillman's "No. 1A" through two weeks of training camp.

Analysis: In other words, Ball is nipping at Hillman's heels. As Legwold notes, Ball weighs 214 pounds compared to Hillman's 195, making the rookie a better red-zone option. Legwold also reports Ball has shown "good vision, quick feet" and "better hands in the passing game than some scouts believed." To grab a true workhorse role, Ball is still going to have to make big strides in pass protection.

This sounds nothing like what Cecil's said.

Not true. I've reported Ball has been getting first team work (top tier) every day, as well as his ability as a receiver standing out (in previous reports).

Legwold is incredible, and we talk often in the offseason (and at the Senior Bowl) about college prospects in addition to chatting at Dove Valley during camp and the regular season. We'll disagree on his footwork here. A play from day seven describes how he SEES the field but lacks the footwork to get to the cutback/bounce before the defense responds. From Day 7: There was a carry that went to the four hole when Ball saw CB Omar Bolden closing in to make the tackle. He danced laterally to get to the six hole and was promptly dropped by SS Mike Adams. That play may have worked in college but going East/West too much in the pros will lead to yardage lost.

Each day I note what is happening on the field. These are practice reports, not opinion pieces.

There are days that Ball has looked good as a receiver out of the backfield. In fact, he thinks that is how he could contribute early (see MMQB story). His pass blocking is suspect at this time and that could limit his playing time initially. I have been waiting for Ball to "wow" me since rookie minicamp. So far those plays (which I've documented) have been few and far between. I was excited when the pads came on but it's been Moreno blasting over guys, not Ball. Even Hillman trucked Ihenacho. I want to see more from Ball. Right now Ball's head seems to be swimming. When the game slows down for him (and he speeds up) we should see an improved runner and pass protector.

This is a RBBC with Hillman/Ball as the lead backs. Ball for goalline work because of his nose for the end zone. I have been watching Ball closely to see if he is improving. His playing time with the first team was cut into by Knowshon Moreno last week. I feel that's a result of the team wanting to get a look at Moreno with the first team. Moreno's fumble in practice won't do him any favors.

Preseason means everything for these two. Manning called it RBBC on Tuesday. Ball has had good days (see my reports) and he's had bad days (like the one you've noted on Tuesday).

 

[RushHour]

I'd like to know why people are assuming that a lead back will emerge from this competition at any point in the season. Because isn't that what the value of this situation is based on? A feature back in an uptempo, Manning led offense having plenty of opportunity to be involved in sustained drives and score TDs at the end of those drives. I can absolutely imagine a situation where the split of carries 50/50 between Hillman and Ball, and that's without even considering what Moreno might be able to do. And who is that helping from a fantasy perspective? That's a low end RB2/RB3/flex play. I just don't understand the appeal here. It's a full-blown RBBC, perhaps the most unclear one in the league, and yet we don't treat it as the "stay away" proposition of other RBBCs.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Coach John Fox says the Broncos' running back pecking order won't be decided until preseason games.
Ronnie Hillman is atop the online depth chart, which is meaningless. This is an all-out training-camp battle, and Montee Ball is pushing hard. "It’s going to be based on performance," Fox insisted. "We’ve got four preseason games to take a look at them. We released a depth chart only because the league makes us. As it sorts out they’ll define where they fit on the depth chart."


Source: Denver Post

 

[Adam Harstad]

I do think being 3rd on the depth chart at this juncture means it's officially "put a fork in him" time for Moreno. Moreno's best hope was to start at the top and try to hold off the young guys. If he's starting at the bottom, I don't think he's got the talent to force his way up the chart.

Just like last season right?

Last season where Knowshon Moreno was a game-day inactive for 8 weeks, and would have been a game-day inactive for 14 weeks had injury further up the depth chart not forced Denver's hand? If this year's #3 slot on the depth chart means the same thing as last year's #3 slot on the depth chart, it means Moreno will be a healthy scratch on game days for the entire season unless or until someone else gets hurt.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I do think being 3rd on the depth chart at this juncture means it's officially "put a fork in him" time for Moreno. Moreno's best hope was to start at the top and try to hold off the young guys. If he's starting at the bottom, I don't think he's got the talent to force his way up the chart.

So when both coach Fox and Hillman are saying how they list them on the depth chart does not mean anything, that they are still evaluating them all (all would include Moreno) through the preseason before making a decision, yet you are willing to jump to the conclusion that Moreno is done?

It very may well be that you are right but the information available is not saying that. Your bias against Moreno cannot be trusted.

What bias against Moreno? I don't dislike the guy, I don't have an axe to grind, I don't wish him ill. I think he's a good guy and a hard worker, I appreciate everything he's given to my favorite team, and I've always hoped he'd prove me wrong and suddenly become great. I wasn't a fan of his coming out, but I've had him in the top 12 of my dynasty rankings before, so it's not like I've always been convinced he was terrible. I spent a huge chunk of the offseason after his rookie year arguing that Moreno had been a good fantasy draft pick that season, so it's not like I've never defended his play. I've drafted him twice in staff mocks, and I drafted him in a dynasty startup I just completed (I already owned Ball and Hillman, and grabbed Moreno late because I acknowledge the possibility that I'm wrong). Where is this bias of mine supposedly coming from?

I've watched every single snap of Knowshon Moreno's career. I've seen every game he played, and watched every carry he's had. Many of them twice. I've followed the team obsessively for nearly two decades now, so I'm well versed in the history and context. I don't dislike Knowshon Moreno's fantasy prospects because I'm biased against him, I dislike his fantasy prospects because, in my very educated opinion, they aren't very good. I think I've shown over the offseason that I have a pretty good feel for the pulse of the RB situation- I called McGahee getting cut months before it happened, called Denver bringing in more competition during the draft, called Moreno falling back down the depth chart again as soon as Fox and Elway had other options. I'd say my track record so far has been pretty spot-on.

This isn't just the depth chart. This is everything. A lot of fantasy owners have been speculating that Knowshon Moreno is the best fit for Manning's offense, or that he's just what Denver needs at the position. If that's true, Denver sure has a funny way of showing it- deactivating him for half a season, demoting him to 3rd on their initial depth chart, limiting his reps with the 1st string offense, spending a ton of resources every year bringing in another RB to replace him. There is a massive preponderance of the evidence right now suggesting that Moreno's a long shot to get a decent-sized role this year. The depth chart is just one piece.

Again, I could be wrong. I've been wrong before, and I'll probably be wrong again someday. In this case, I feel pretty confident that Moreno's fantasy value is zilch, barring injury or Act of God. I feel pretty confident that, regardless of what the question is, the decision makers in Denver do not view Moreno as the answer. This isn't bias, it's informed guesswork.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

(KFFL)Denver Broncos RB Montee Ball reportedly had the best scrimmage over the weekend between RBs Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno. Ball and Hillman each worked with the No. 1 offense, but Hillman had little room to run. Moreno ran with the second unit.

http://www.kffl.com/player/25664/NFL/Montee-Ball

This seems to contradict the reports we were hearing earlier. Then again, it's got no real source ("reportedly"?), and they're talking about "over the weekend", when Cecil said that Hillman had an even bigger run than Ball. Curious about these conflicting reports...

Yahoo! was also in attendance for the Saturday scrimmage and they noted Hillman's 12-yard run. (Bumpman noted it earlier in this thread: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/moisture-cant-stop-manning-broncos-030903280--nfl.html -- The official website has pictures of Ball's 9-yard run as Manny Ramirez moved Stewart Bradley at the second level. David Bruton made the tackle.

I'm trying to understand the difference between these reports. I'm trying to figure out what's really happening, not what you think you see, and not what other guys in the media think they see. You were strongly pro-Hillman last year, and you were questioned about it in the offseason. So there's a reason for people like me to be concerned about your ability to be partial. But everyone gets rookie fever, especially in the FF community. So there's reason for people like me to question the reports that say Ball is coming along nicely.I'd like to believe that your reports are coming from an impartial reporter, but your reports about Hillman have been glowing. Your reports about Ball are never glowing.

Look at the difference between these two reports:

On their noteworthy accomplishments:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman: Hillman showed some power and pop today at the goal line. He got the attention of the crowd and the media when he trucked SS Duke Ihenacho on his way into the end zone.

No. 38 Montee Ball: Ball missed a block today that would have done two very bad things. First, the missed block would have been a safety with Manning sacked in the end zone. Second, Manning would have been crushed on the play had the defense been allowed to hit him.

The first two sentences of Hillman's description read like Mrs' Hillman's Guide To Broncos Camp. Hillman trucked people and got the attention of the crowd with power and pop and attention!

Oh, and Ball missed a block. Let's talk about how bad it would have been, too.

On their long runs:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman:On Monday Ihenacho horse collared Hillman on a run that would have been a 40+ yard TD. Today, it was Hillman who got payback. He did a good job as a receiver out of the backfield.

No. 38 Montee Ball:Ball showed more decisiveness as a runner when the hole wasnt there. Once he did lower his head and try to push the pile for a yard or two. He was able to get to the second level once in practice where ILB Stewart Bradley quickly came in for the tackle.

You talk about how much better Hillman's stats would have been if he hadn't been horse collared. Might even have been a 40+ yard TD, if the guy who got his hands on him hadn't been able to make the tackle. The fact that he horse collared him is irrelevant to the story, but it makes it sound like Hillman's day was even better than reported. Then when you talk about Ball, you just say he lowered his head and tried to get a yard or two. Oh, and he got to the second level once, but you don't mention how far he got, you just mention that the linebacker came in quickly and tackled him.

On their ability to gain yardage:

No. 21 Ronnie Hillman:I liked the way he would get skinny inside and create something when the hole wasnt there. Hillman also spun to reverse his field and make a five yard run on a carry that should have been stuffed for a loss of five. He drew the praise of Broncos ring of fame Center Tom Nalen when he created on a run that was intended for the 2 hole, but he quickly bounced it to the 4 hole as the initial blocks opened nothing. Hillman created another way to gain positive yards when his blocking wasnt there.

No. 38 Montee Ball:On all of his carries today Ball was averaging around three yards per carry.

So Ball averaged 3 yards per carry. How many yards per carry did Hillman average? You don't mention that, you just talk about how impressive it was that he was able to create something when the hole wasn't there.

This doesn't seem like unbiased reporting to me. It seems like you have an agenda. But I have an agenda, too - I love Ball this year. So I don't know if I'm seeing things I want to see, or you are, or both. And then I see other members of the media reporting on the same practice you attended, including the two directly above this which suggest that Ball impressed more than Hillman, who had little room to run, and that Ball has better hands than even the Broncos thought. Again, there could be a huge agenda from those observers clouding their reporting. Or not.

I don't mean this as an attack - I enjoy reading your reports and appreciate what you're trying to do. But I've got a lot of time and money invested in this hobby and I'd like to feel like I can trust the information I'm getting. Right now, I don't trust much of anything I've heard out of camp because everyone's contradicting each other.

It's an rbbc in a passing offense. Save yourself the stress.

The Broncos had the 9th most rushing attempts in the NFL last season (and 10th most passing attempts) and that was with their No. 1 RB going out for the season halfway through the year - they aren't a "passing offense" they are a well balanced top offense in the league. I'm interested in who will be their top running option this season.

 

[MAC_32]

This competition is much more fun to follow when you have no intentions on rostering any of them week 1 this year.

 

[moleculo]

bfred - I'm not a gifted analyst, but by my untrained eye, Hillman is the guy to own, assuming equal cost.

Like I said earlier - I watched pass-blocking drills in camp on Monday. I saw Woodyard, a (mostly) coverage LB, blow up Ball. The very next play, I saw Hillman stone Von Miller. To me, that's enough right there. Pass-blocking gets you reps. Right now, Hillman's opportunity > Ball's opportunity. Beyond that, I believe Hillman has more big-play ability and therefore more likely to do something with his opportunity.

People are scared of Hillman in that he was down to 180 by the end of the season, and are skeptical that he can keep his new found weight all season. However - we need to remember that he was the youngest player in the league last year. It's very possible that he has not yet stopped growing. I know that I put on some (muscle) weight between 20 and 21, and that was without the benefit of NFL calibre training and nutrition regimen...hell, without any training regimen. I simply hadn't grown into a mans body yet (those who have met me might say I still haven't). IMO, Hillmans weight is not something to be scared of.

This is what I'm trying to find out. If this is the case - and continues to be the case - then I totally agree. But Ball's first day of camp was 5 days ago. Hillman's was 370 days ago. The scouting report on Ball has been that he's an excellent pass blocker. As someone who has invested in Ball in a dynasty league, I'm not particularly concerned that Hillman is better than Ball right now. What I'm looking for is the progression from Ball that they're hoping for. If I were looking to buy Hillman, or draft him in one of my other leagues, I'd be happy to hear that Hillman was succeeding at pass blocking, since it had been a notable problem for him in the past. But I'd also be very interested in whether Ball is becoming a better pass blocker.

I've said since April that I don't think Ball will start right away - I expected him to become the primary ball carrier in October. I expect him to get red zone carries until then. That's consistent with what Cecil is saying, and Cecil seems to be as down on him as anyone. So my interest is in whether Ball looks as good as advertised in the red zone. I'm also interested in whether he is making strides in pass blocking. That's big. And I'm interested in whether he seems to be getting looks with the first team offense. So far the answer to that one is yes.

We can infer a lot of different things from the current situation. Is Hillman simply outplaying Ball? Has Hillman stepped up his game so much that he has become the starter that the Broncos (but not Elway, who has repeatedly referred to him as a CoP back) hoped he could become? Is Hillman the starter by default because they aren't going to hand the job to a rookie? Is Moreno's spot sucking hind teat on the depth chart indicative of their interest in seeing what the young guys can do? Or is it a message that he's the odd man out in the bid for #1 status? And is Ball playing well enough that he is on target for a week 5 start, if things progress as the people who compared him favorably to Terrell Davis originally seemed to hope?

These are legitimate questions - I have an opinion on what I think will happen, but I don't know the answers. And reporters who go to the Broncos camp are saying wildly different things - some think Ball is playing extremely well, others, including Cecil, think Hillman is far and away the best back in camp. Some people seem to be calling for a RBBC, but that's an outdated term. To some of us, it means that Hillman is playing between the 20s and Ball is the red zone back who will get fewer yards but enough TDs to be a spot starter. To others, it means that Ball will be the guy on first and second downs, but Ball will come in for CoP carries and maybe third down carries as well. Is the rumor of Ball splitting wide indicative of him becoming a full time back who can get touches in a lot of different ways? Or is it just the Broncos trying a bunch of things with him to see what sticks? Is his occasional absence in team drills indicative of him being fourth or fifth on the depth chart at a specific skill? Or is it that they're working with him on something totally separate?

Cecil is giving me a pessimistic answer for Ball on all of these questions. The one thing he's conceded is that Ball will be the red zone guy. But other than that, he seems to be incredibly pro-Hillman on everything. I think it's great that you went to camp, too, but your opinion is based on what you saw of a rookie in one of his very first drills. I'm loving the ongoing updates from Cecil, and I appreciate what you're saying, too. I also have an investment in Ball and I haven't heard anything that contradicts my original opinion of how this situation would shake out. I recognize that I have a bias, but I'm also listening to someone who's biased, and I'm trying to figure out where the line is.

these are legitimate questions and I doubt you will find anyone with a solid, legitimate answer that can be trusted without a crystal ball.

I think people are overthinking this. Right now, all signs point to Hillman being the guy to own for 2013, yet in re-draft, he's being selected a couple rounds behind Ball. Of course situations can change, but there are plenty of reasons to believe in Hillman for the entirety of this season.

 

[Ghost Rider]

This competition is much more fun to follow when you have no intentions on rostering any of them week 1 this year.

Agreed.

Granted, I am likely to get one or two of them on a team or two, but have not as of yet. Either way, I have no dog in this fight, and it should be interesting to see how it pans out.

 

[purestrength]

Mark my words. The Denver RB situation will decide plenty of fantasy championships in 2013.

I want in, but so far I think I've been guessing wrong.

I live a million miles away (nowhere near training camp). But I watched every Denver game on TV last year and said "ehh" every time Hillman got a carry. I was much more optimistic when Moreno appeared. I can't shake those images from my head.

 

[Sabertooth]

Different people see different things. Tom Brady was once a 6th rd. draft choice.

Was he really? I hadn't heard that. I figured he must have been a first rounder. Huh. He's pretty good.

 

[bostonfred]

I think people are overthinking this. Right now, all signs point to Hillman being the guy to own for 2013, yet in re-draft, he's being selected a couple rounds behind Ball. Of course situations can change, but there are plenty of reasons to believe in Hillman for the entirety of this season.

I disagree with this on every level.There is very little reason to believe in Hillman for the "entirety of this season". Elway's comments after the draft made it sound like they intended to use him like Terrell Davis. Manning was clear that they weren't going to ease him in. Fox had absolutely no motivation to qualify his week one depth chart by saying he only wrote one down because the league makes him. None of those things makes me feel strongly about Hillman's job security by the end of 2013.

Even if you assume Hillman is the lead dog for the whole season, I don't think all signs point to Hillman being the guy to own, either. There are numerous reports of Hillman/Ball being 1A/1B, and all indications are the Ball will get the red zone carries and thus the lion's share of TDs. So even if Hillman is the starter, he may not be the "guy to own". There may not even BE a guy to own.

If this is an even split RBBC, Hillman is likely a RB3 as well, but the lack of TDs means he probably only has RB2 upside. I don't see him putting up 2000 total yards, and I don't see him getting enough TDs to move him into the top tier of RBs, so his upside is pretty capped. In an even split, Ball would be a RB3 as well, but with RB1 upside if he gets the bulk of the carries because he could get the first quarter, wear the defense down carries, the fourth quarter run the clock out carries, and the all important goal line carries. So it totally makes sense for Hillman to be drafted later, even if you're convinced that he will be the lead back in the committee from day one.

I don't think this is looking at the situation through Ball colored glasses. Cecil has been fairly pessimistic about Ball, but has also said that Ball is likely to get all of the red zone carries. Almost every report from camp says that Ball has already earned the 1B spot in a RBBC and will get those red zone carries. And unlike Hillman, who has already made his move up the depth chart, Ball still has the ability to overtake him if he plays his tail off in camp. That doesn't mean he will, just that the ability exists. There is no scenario that's been discussed so far where Hillman has the ability to earn all of the goal line carries, or to be the guy the team uses to run the clock out in the second half.

So there's a spectrum between, say, 20% and 65% of the carries for Hillman, 5% and 50% for Moreno, and 20% and 75% for Ball. That might be a pretty broad range, but we have a fairly good idea what kind of committee we're looking at. I think there's tremendous potential in the backfield, but the best case fantasy scenario if I owned all three would be that Ball, not Hillman, took the reins and ran with them. I'm trying to figure out if the early reports are true and Hillman is so far ahead that Ball can't catch up, or if Hillman has been anointed the starter for now, until Ball is ready to take over, or somewhere in between. And when I'm trying to find out where on that spectrum these guys are, comments like "Hillman is the guy to own", "it's too murky" and "it's a RBBC" don't help me to place the two players on that spectrum.

 

[Groundpounder]

Different people see different things. Tom Brady was once a 6th rd. draft choice.

Was he really? I hadn't heard that. I figured he must have been a first rounder. Huh. He's pretty good.

LOL