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Bryan Bullington (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter CrossEyed
- Start date
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
MLB >Triple A
Just ask Chris Shelton.
Just ask Chris Shelton.
CrossEyed
Footballguy
Obviously. But how much do you have to dominate at the highest level of the minors to get a shot at the bigs?MLB >Triple A Just ask Chris Shelton.
The Ref
Footballguy
two reasons come to mind.1. the longer he stays in Indi the less time he has on a mlb roster. The less time on a mlb roster, the longer he stays on the Bucs roster before he is a free agent.2. the K/9 ratio is a little low for a real grade A prospect.with that being said, I have him on a few teams.
Pittsburgh management is dumb.
Your Mother
Footballguy
His ERA is a mirage that is due for a severe correction in due course. 4.62 K/9 isn't effective in AAA, nevermind in the bigs. 3.58 BB/9 is pretty bad too. If you're going to strikeout that few people, you'd better a) not walk anybody and b) have a Webb/Lowe/Wang-esque GB/FB ratio.
His LD rate is a touch low (14.5%), but a bigger factor to explain the discrepancy between his low ERA/poor peripherals is his 1 HR against 31 flyouts (the normal ratio is around 9-10%, and this isn't affected by pitcher skill, but is affected by a) quality of opponent faced and b) park factors).
Everything in play is going his way as well, with a .241 BABIP (again, the mean is 29-30%). Assuming a standard defense and park behind him, if we bump that BABIP up to .290, his WHIP jumps from 1.18 to 1.34. I'll let someone else do xERA.
His LD rate is a touch low (14.5%), but a bigger factor to explain the discrepancy between his low ERA/poor peripherals is his 1 HR against 31 flyouts (the normal ratio is around 9-10%, and this isn't affected by pitcher skill, but is affected by a) quality of opponent faced and b) park factors).
Everything in play is going his way as well, with a .241 BABIP (again, the mean is 29-30%). Assuming a standard defense and park behind him, if we bump that BABIP up to .290, his WHIP jumps from 1.18 to 1.34. I'll let someone else do xERA.
weisguy0831
Footballguy
i saw something on espnnews the other day on their fantasy segment about babip and to be honest, i think it's vastly overrated. i mean, just because the league average is 30 percent, why do we assume a pitcher who is at 25 percent can't maintain that level? they were ripping on john maine, saying sell high. i seem to recall he was a pretty good orioles prospect at one point . anyway, the next night he goes out in arizona and pitches another great game.His ERA is a mirage that is due for a severe correction in due course. 4.62 K/9 isn't effective in AAA, nevermind in the bigs. 3.58 BB/9 is pretty bad too. If you're going to strikeout that few people, you'd better a) not walk anybody and b) have a Webb/Lowe/Wang-esque GB/FB ratio.His LD rate is a touch low (14.5%), but a bigger factor to explain the discrepancy between his low ERA/poor peripherals is his 1 HR against 31 flyouts (the normal ratio is around 9-10%, and this isn't affected by pitcher skill, but is affected by a) quality of opponent faced and b) park factors).Everything in play is going his way as well, with a .241 BABIP (again, the mean is 29-30%). Assuming a standard defense and park behind him, if we bump that BABIP up to .290, his WHIP jumps from 1.18 to 1.34. I'll let someone else do xERA.
Your Mother
Footballguy
To be honest, I was skeptical of BABIP myself at first. So I tested it out by using HOF pitchers who've had lengthy careers, so I'd have a) good sample sizes to work with and b) the most likeliest candidates to buck BABIP, if it could possibly be done.Here's a pretty simple formula for BABIP, there are more complicated ones that account for knuckleballers (who CAN affect balls in play), handedness, etc.(H - HR) / ((IP x 2.82) + H - K - HR)I plugged in the numbers for Greg Maddux. Misses lots of bat-barrels, right? Slow-rollers back to the pitcher, etc? 28%.Did the same for Clemens. 29%.Some guys will be off by a point or two, maybe because of park, maybe because of quality of defense behind them, but you won't see anyone that far off from 29-30% with a big enough sample size.It's been proven pretty definitively that a pitcher has no control over balls in play. The hitters they face do, their defense does, and the park does, but not the pitcher. Google "Voros McCracken" and go from there.i saw something on espnnews the other day on their fantasy segment about babip and to be honest, i think it's vastly overrated. i mean, just because the league average is 30 percent, why do we assume a pitcher who is at 25 percent can't maintain that level? they were ripping on john maine, saying sell high. i seem to recall he was a pretty good orioles prospect at one point . anyway, the next night he goes out in arizona and pitches another great game.His ERA is a mirage that is due for a severe correction in due course. 4.62 K/9 isn't effective in AAA, nevermind in the bigs. 3.58 BB/9 is pretty bad too. If you're going to strikeout that few people, you'd better a) not walk anybody and b) have a Webb/Lowe/Wang-esque GB/FB ratio.His LD rate is a touch low (14.5%), but a bigger factor to explain the discrepancy between his low ERA/poor peripherals is his 1 HR against 31 flyouts (the normal ratio is around 9-10%, and this isn't affected by pitcher skill, but is affected by a) quality of opponent faced and b) park factors).Everything in play is going his way as well, with a .241 BABIP (again, the mean is 29-30%). Assuming a standard defense and park behind him, if we bump that BABIP up to .290, his WHIP jumps from 1.18 to 1.34. I'll let someone else do xERA.
Knightro
Footballguy
All stats regress toward the mean. By the end of the season, everyone is pretty much right inside the .290-.310 range. The only guys who tend to avoid that range are relievers and that is because they get limited exposure. It is damn near impossible for a starting pitcher to sustain a OBABIP below .290. That is why it doesn't surprise me that a freak like Maddux can pull it off.
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
This is good advice if you can get a nice player coming back. At worst you keep Maine but it certainly doesn't hurt to dangle him. I agree with their analysis.i saw something on espnnews the other day on their fantasy segment about babip and to be honest, i think it's vastly overrated. i mean, just because the league average is 30 percent, why do we assume a pitcher who is at 25 percent can't maintain that level? they were ripping on john maine, saying sell high. i seem to recall he was a pretty good orioles prospect at one point . anyway, the next night he goes out in arizona and pitches another great game.His ERA is a mirage that is due for a severe correction in due course. 4.62 K/9 isn't effective in AAA, nevermind in the bigs. 3.58 BB/9 is pretty bad too. If you're going to strikeout that few people, you'd better a) not walk anybody and b) have a Webb/Lowe/Wang-esque GB/FB ratio.
His LD rate is a touch low (14.5%), but a bigger factor to explain the discrepancy between his low ERA/poor peripherals is his 1 HR against 31 flyouts (the normal ratio is around 9-10%, and this isn't affected by pitcher skill, but is affected by a) quality of opponent faced and b) park factors).
Everything in play is going his way as well, with a .241 BABIP (again, the mean is 29-30%). Assuming a standard defense and park behind him, if we bump that BABIP up to .290, his WHIP jumps from 1.18 to 1.34. I'll let someone else do xERA.
Knightro
Footballguy
Let's say Maine was a stock.
You bought it at $5 a share and it starts performing at $20 a share. Do you ride it out for awhile to see if it will bring you another huge return like that or cash in and buy low on a struggling stock you know will do better?
If I have John Maine, I'm calling the Erik Bedard owner in my league.
You bought it at $5 a share and it starts performing at $20 a share. Do you ride it out for awhile to see if it will bring you another huge return like that or cash in and buy low on a struggling stock you know will do better?
If I have John Maine, I'm calling the Erik Bedard owner in my league.
Knightro
Footballguy
that hot list varies each week as it is more of a snapshot of who did what the following week. I'd keep Pedroia over both. Bullington is a soft-tosser and JVB is another injury waiting to happen a la John Patterson. The Pirates should have drafted JVB as a 1B - dude was a monster slugger in college.
428143
Footballguy
His ERA is a mirage that is due for a severe correction in due course. 4.62 K/9 isn't effective in AAA, nevermind in the bigs. 3.58 BB/9 is pretty bad too. If you're going to strikeout that few people, you'd better a) not walk anybody and b) have a Webb/Lowe/Wang-esque GB/FB ratio.His LD rate is a touch low (14.5%), but a bigger factor to explain the discrepancy between his low ERA/poor peripherals is his 1 HR against 31 flyouts (the normal ratio is around 9-10%, and this isn't affected by pitcher skill, but is affected by a) quality of opponent faced and b) park factors).Everything in play is going his way as well, with a .241 BABIP (again, the mean is 29-30%). Assuming a standard defense and park behind him, if we bump that BABIP up to .290, his WHIP jumps from 1.18 to 1.34. I'll let someone else do xERA.
Could you possibly post a link to a website that keeps track of these types of stats? Thanks in advance...
Knightro
Footballguy
xERA = Shandler's stuff at BaseballHQ.com
BABIP, WHIP, etc - can all be found in the ESPN player profiles nowadays.
FanGraphs also has them - numbers and graphs for everyone. Here is Maine's numbers (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4773&position=P)
BABIP, WHIP, etc - can all be found in the ESPN player profiles nowadays.
FanGraphs also has them - numbers and graphs for everyone. Here is Maine's numbers (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4773&position=P)
Your Mother
Footballguy
Hardball Times (www.hardballtimes.net ?) is what I usually use.ETA: Duh, forgot this was a minor leaguer.www.minorleaguebaseball.comwww.minorleaguesplits.com428143 said:His ERA is a mirage that is due for a severe correction in due course. 4.62 K/9 isn't effective in AAA, nevermind in the bigs. 3.58 BB/9 is pretty bad too. If you're going to strikeout that few people, you'd better a) not walk anybody and b) have a Webb/Lowe/Wang-esque GB/FB ratio.His LD rate is a touch low (14.5%), but a bigger factor to explain the discrepancy between his low ERA/poor peripherals is his 1 HR against 31 flyouts (the normal ratio is around 9-10%, and this isn't affected by pitcher skill, but is affected by a) quality of opponent faced and b) park factors).Everything in play is going his way as well, with a .241 BABIP (again, the mean is 29-30%). Assuming a standard defense and park behind him, if we bump that BABIP up to .290, his WHIP jumps from 1.18 to 1.34. I'll let someone else do xERA.Could you possibly post a link to a website that keeps track of these types of stats? Thanks in advance...
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Your Mother
Footballguy
True, although I feel compelled to mention that it works a little differently for hitters. For pitchers, the mean is by and large 29-30%, which varies slightly due to park, defense, and luck.Hitters CAN control the success of how often balls batted into play fall in for hits, mainly via hitting line drives. Flyballs are 2nd most productive on balance, and grounders -- while they do go for hits more often than flyballs, but do less damage overall for obvious reasons -- are least desirable.But yeah, Upton is going to come down. It just won't necessarily be towards the magical .290 number.Capella said:BAPIP is a pretty decent indicator, imo. Take a look at Upton's number there, it's absurd. Over .550 last time I checked. That ol' average is going to be coming down soon.
