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BTTF 2018: MLB123746 (2 Viewers)

LINEUP:

1.  LF | L Michael Brantley (CLE)  

2.  CF | L Jackie Bradley (BOS) 

3.  3B | R Adrian Beltre (TEX) 

4.  RF | L Michael Conforto (NYM)

5.  1B | R Jose Abreu (CWS) 

6.  2B | R Jonathan Schoop (BAL) 

7.  CA | R Evan Gattis (HOU) 

8.  SS | R Marcus Semien (OAK) 

PITCHING:

SP1 L Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

SP2 R Aaron Nola (PHI) 

SP3 R Dylan Bundy (BAL) 

SP4 R Matt Shoemaker (LAA)     

Clo  R David Robertson (NYY) 

 
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Darvish offers are flowing in via PM. Keep em coming. But come strong... Some good items already on the table.

 
RnR said:
The second half of 2017?
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Hold on. We ar using stats from the second half of 2017? ?

I thought we were using 2018 stats? Oh, you’re saying he is going to suck because he had a poor second half.

its true the HR numbers dropped in the second half, but this isn’t a roto league. He maintained a decent K/BB rate in the second half, and while his OPS dropped off from .936 in the first half to around .800 in the second half, that was mostly due to his August numbers. He closed out the season with a .995 OPS in September.

Even if you take out his hot start in April when he hit 11HRs, he hit 20 HRs in 5 months. That 4 HRs a month, Replace his April numbers with that pace and he still would have had 24 HRs with a 360 OBP.

Add in the fact that he hits in a stacked lineup, in a great hitters park, and I’ll take my chances.

 
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My fourth Cuban out of eight position player picks

13.12  Yonder Alonso  1B  CLE

I don't know whether to believe in his late career breakout but Cleveland apparently does

@cosjobs

 
SoCalBroncoFan said:
I seriously looked at him. His production in the minors was trending downward and I was too worried last years numbers were a fluke. If they weren’t, you’re correct and he is a steal.
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It is a little early for drafting backups, tho. I wonder if he might get OF eligible. 

 
SoCalBroncoFan said:
I seriously looked at him. His production in the minors was trending downward and I was too worried last years numbers were a fluke. If they weren’t, you’re correct and he is a steal.
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I figured Olson has a higher ceiling but lower floor than Alonso.  There a non-zero risk that the league figures out how to pitch to him and he ends up spending some time in the PCL working on adjustments.  I don't care how strong he is, a 41% HR/FB ratio isn't sustainable.

 
Eephus said:
I figured Olson has a higher ceiling but lower floor than Alonso.  There a non-zero risk that the league figures out how to pitch to him and he ends up spending some time in the PCL working on adjustments.  I don't care how strong he is, a 41% HR/FB ratio isn't sustainable.
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Higher floor was sane reason I took Thames over him.

 
SoCalBroncoFan said:
Higher floor was sane reason I took Thames over him.
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Maybe cosjobs is right to draft for upside here.  1B PAs are always available to trade for in November if Olson busts.  There's not the risk of ending up with a defensive shortfall that you have with other positions in this format.

He's a weird guy to project.  As mentioned earlier, some of his FBs will change from homers to doubles and long fly outs.  His 27.8K% could go either way; he's always struck out a lot in the minors but big league pitchers can exploit flaws ruthlessly.  One thing Olson has going for him is his .238 BABIP.  The already small sample size was reduced by his Ks and HRs but it should regress to the mean. 

I think he'll be productive if he can put up 500 PAs but Oakland won't hesitate to demote him if he struggles.

 
Eephus said:
Maybe cosjobs is right to draft for upside here.  1B PAs are always available to trade for in November if Olson busts.  There's not the risk of ending up with a defensive shortfall that you have with other positions in this format.

He's a weird guy to project.  As mentioned earlier, some of his FBs will change from homers to doubles and long fly outs.  His 27.8K% could go either way; he's always struck out a lot in the minors but big league pitchers can exploit flaws ruthlessly.  One thing Olson has going for him is his .238 BABIP.  The already small sample size was reduced by his Ks and HRs but it should regress to the mean. 

I think he'll be productive if he can put up 500 PAs but Oakland won't hesitate to demote him if he struggles.
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Was very close for me between Josh Bell and Olson with my 10.4 pick.  Surprised Olsen lasted this long.

 
rodg12 said:
Was very close for me between Josh Bell and Olson with my 10.4 pick.  Surprised Olsen lasted this long.
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Was choosing between Olson and Yasmany Tomas with my last pick. Thames was still available, and Mancini will almost certainly qualify at 1B, so I felt OK Olson punting at the time. But I expect Olson to be a very good player, just not at his 2017 rates.

 
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