Buster Olney's over/under season win totals (1 Viewer)

[JJP]

Did anyone catch this on ESPN radio yesterday? While Olney gives good insights and is a valuable part of their Baseball Tonight team, he should probably stay away from wagering advice. He and Eric Casilias (sp?) went thru each MLB team's projected over/under season win total. I would estimate he said "over" on about 3/4 of the teams.

Buster, it doesn't add up. You can't have 75% of the teams going over unless you have several teams winning less than 40 games. And in all likelihood, every team will be between the magical Fibonacci numbers (60 to 100 wins). He seemed to think the 82 wins on the Twins was way too low. I think he's forgetting how much the Twins benefitted from the Metrodome and the move outside may not pay dividends for a couple years. Same goes for Colorado. I think one should consider unders for both the Twins and Rockies.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Your first mistake was taking Buster Olney seriously.

 

[Oh Yes!]

the guy's name is buster for craps sake

 

[Spartans Rule]

I agree with the general principle that not every team can be an over, but the Twins over 82 is a gimme. I think they'll win 90.

Adding Hardy, Hudson and Thome gives them the best lineup they've had in some time. If Liriano is back in form as it appears, the starting pitching will be very good.

And the AL Central really sucks. The Royals and Indians will be awful, the Tigers aren't as good as last year and the White Sox have a lot of offensive question marks. Quite possible the Twins will be the only team over .500.

 

[JJP]

Bookmaker.com has the Twins at 85 but I really like the under on that. That rotation is not solid; betting on Liriano is shaky. 24-22 with a 4.16 ERA lifetime. He was very good......in 2006. With Hardy are you gonna get the 2007-2008 Hardy or the 2009 Hardy that hit only.229 with 11 homers and .650 OPS? I'll give you Hudson as being a positive, no doubt, but I don't know if they can count on Thome for much other than an occasional homer. He might hit 30 homers and .240 with a strikeout per game. His OPS has gone down three straight year. The new park is not a positive, at least this year. The Twins have had as good a home/road dichotemy over the years so that advantage is gone for now.

IMO, the White Sox are the team to beat in the Central. Solid rotation with Buerhle, Peavy, Danks and Floyd. People talk about the power not being there but Quentin was out much of last year. Beckham has a season under his belt and looks very solid. Pierre does give them much more speed than they've had. I like the Sox over 83.

 

[Wrigley]

Bookmaker.com has the Twins at 85 but I really like the under on that. That rotation is not solid; betting on Liriano is shaky. 24-22 with a 4.16 ERA lifetime. He was very good......in 2006. With Hardy are you gonna get the 2007-2008 Hardy or the 2009 Hardy that hit only.229 with 11 homers and .650 OPS? I'll give you Hudson as being a positive, no doubt, but I don't know if they can count on Thome for much other than an occasional homer. He might hit 30 homers and .240 with a strikeout per game. His OPS has gone down three straight year. The new park is not a positive, at least this year. The Twins have had as good a home/road dichotemy over the years so that advantage is gone for now.IMO, the White Sox are the team to beat in the Central. Solid rotation with Buerhle, Peavy, Danks and Floyd. People talk about the power not being there but Quentin was out much of last year. Beckham has a season under his belt and looks very solid. Pierre does give them much more speed than they've had. I like the Sox over 83.

I'll agree on the Sox going over but only because of their rotation. You point out Quentin wasn't healthy last year, when was the last time he was? He's never played more than 130 games in his short career. The Sox are in dire need of some power......Left handed power would fit the bill. Konerko, is the only other legitimate power hitter in this line up, and he's on the wrong side of 30I'll take the over on the Sox this year.....in fact, If they pick up a stick, they will run away with this division.

 

[Oh Yes!]

Bookmaker.com has the Twins at 85 but I really like the under on that. That rotation is not solid; betting on Liriano is shaky. 24-22 with a 4.16 ERA lifetime. He was very good......in 2006. With Hardy are you gonna get the 2007-2008 Hardy or the 2009 Hardy that hit only.229 with 11 homers and .650 OPS? I'll give you Hudson as being a positive, no doubt, but I don't know if they can count on Thome for much other than an occasional homer. He might hit 30 homers and .240 with a strikeout per game. His OPS has gone down three straight year. The new park is not a positive, at least this year. The Twins have had as good a home/road dichotemy over the years so that advantage is gone for now.IMO, the White Sox are the team to beat in the Central. Solid rotation with Buerhle, Peavy, Danks and Floyd. People talk about the power not being there but Quentin was out much of last year. Beckham has a season under his belt and looks very solid. Pierre does give them much more speed than they've had. I like the Sox over 83.

I'll agree on the Sox going over but only because of their rotation. You point out Quentin wasn't healthy last year, when was the last time he was? He's never played more than 130 games in his short career. The Sox are in dire need of some power......Left handed power would fit the bill. Konerko, is the only other legitimate power hitter in this line up, and he's on the wrong side of 30I'll take the over on the Sox this year.....in fact, If they pick up a stick, they will run away with this division.

:cough: adrian gonzalez :cough: