What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

"But Hillary won the popular vote!" (1 Viewer)

mr roboto

Footballguy
I keep hearing lamenting over the fact that the popular vote and the electoral college totals are inconsistent at times. Let me tell you why this doesn't really matter. 

Many contest has rules at the beginning that each contestant knows in advance and formulates a plan in order to, according to the rules, win the contest. 

Lets say the Packers beat the Vikings 27-24. They kick a game winning FG with 3 seconds left. The Packers are awarded a win and the Vikings take a loss. 

Now let's say the Vikings had 425 yds of offense while the Packers had 375 yds. In yardage totals the Vikings 'beat' the Packers. But this is irrelevant. Because football wins are measured by points, not yards gained. 

Now if football game were decided by total yards it would be played very differently. The 1yd TD run and a 1yd gain on 1st and 10 count the same. You could imagine how teams would play the game very differently. There would be no FGs. All teams would go for it on 4th down frequently. Onside kicks would become the norm. All because yards now matter, not points. 

 Voter turn out in California for example was very low and Hillary won a very high percentage of the California vote.  In states where it was apparent that one of the two candidates would win, certain voters (such as myself)  May have decided to vote for a third-party candidate as a statement vote against the two-party system because those voters knew that their individual vote was irrelevant in their state which may have gone overwhelmingly to one of the two candidates. 

The  candidates themselves would campaign very differently if a single vote in California meant as much as a single vote in Pennsylvania or Michigan.  They would focus heavily on highly populated areas and states and likely not campaign as often in smaller cities and towns. 

 It's my opinion that the popular vote tells us nothing about what the majority of Americans actually wanted because those Americans were operating under the assumption that states majority matters not overall national majority.  It would be fascinating to throw out the electoral college in an election cycle and see what voter turnout would be and what impact that would have on third-party candidates.

 
She got more votes - maybe a million more once all the west coast absentee ballots are counted. It's impossible to predict whether that would've been the case under popular vote rules. But it's a rallying cry for the #NotMyPresident crowd. My daughter and I joined them last night in Miami and saw no evidence of professional protesters or signs. Signs with "Hope Trumps Hate", "We reject the president elect", "She got more votes", "##### grabs back" and "Tryannical President Unfit 4 My #####". The word is politically correct now, right?

Somehow we ended up blocking the main causeway to Miami Beach for about 20 minutes and then I-95 North for about an hour. I approve the protest, but not blocking major lanes. The crowd started small and then grew to almost 5,000 people.  I expect these protests to die down, but there could be a huge protest for the inaguration and/or the day after. The protesters I spoke with were worried about Trump's position on a variety of issues - Obamacare, immigration, climate change, promotion of rape culture, LGBT rights. There was unanimous concern about president's Trump's literal insults. It's an opportunity to translate anger into votes in 2020.

Regarding the electoral college - why is is proportional representation + 2? The +2 seems unfair - it gives people in small states a lot more say than people in large states.

 
She got more votes - maybe a million more once all the west coast absentee ballots are counted. It's impossible to predict whether that would've been the case under popular vote rules. But it's a rallying cry for the #NotMyPresident crowd. My daughter and I joined them last night in Miami and saw no evidence of professional protesters or signs. Signs with "Hope Trumps Hate", "We reject the president elect", "She got more votes", "##### grabs back" and "Tryannical President Unfit 4 My #####". The word is politically correct now, right?

Somehow we ended up blocking the main causeway to Miami Beach for about 20 minutes and then I-95 North for about an hour. I approve the protest, but not blocking major lanes. The crowd started small and then grew to almost 5,000 people.  I expect these protests to die down, but there could be a huge protest for the inaguration and/or the day after. The protesters I spoke with were worried about Trump's position on a variety of issues - Obamacare, immigration, climate change, promotion of rape culture, LGBT rights. There was unanimous concern about president's Trump's literal insults. It's an opportunity to translate anger into votes in 2020.

Regarding the electoral college - why is is proportional representation + 2? The +2 seems unfair - it gives people in small states a lot more say than people in large states.
Thats the point. I wouldnt say it gives small states more say. California has 55 votes vs 4 for say Maine, but it does give them some say. The small states would simply be ignored in the whole process.

 
Electoral college is # of senators + # of Representatives in a state. Thus, the lowest number of electors a state can have is three.

 
Thats the point. I wouldnt say it gives small states more say. California has 55 votes vs 4 for say Maine, but it does give them some say. The small states would simply be ignored in the whole process.
Someone from Wyoming has about 3 times as much clout as the average American in the electoral college. People from large states like CA, NY, TX and Fl have 80-90% of the clout of the average American. The extra 2 votes in the electoral college for small states doesn't convert them from the ignored category. It just gives them more say in who becomes president, on average. Fair apportionment would've made the electoral vote much closer in this election, and would almost always make it match the popular vote better then the current system. 

 
Leave the Electoral College, but let's stop the Gerrymandering and have term limits for Congress. 
Now now some people think that's not letting you vote for whoever you want.  Even if it's a crooked politician who's entrenched cabal rigs it so no opposition can challenge them without a huge pile of cash or influence. 

 
Leave the Electoral College, but let's stop the Gerrymandering and have term limits for Congress. 
We have term limits. it's called voting. I have already outlined the problems term limits have brought to state legislatures the big one being that lobbyists get more power because the constant shuffle means the pols have to rely on them. Because they are the only ones around long enough to learn the system.

Gerrymandering is a huge problem which both parties are very guilty of. Districts should be drawn by an algorithm not people. Also there should be a lot more districts. Districts are so large too many people end up not being represented. At least twice as many.

 
We have term limits. it's called voting. I have already outlined the problems term limits have brought to state legislatures the big one being that lobbyists get more power because the constant shuffle means the pols have to rely on them. Because they are the only ones around long enough to learn the system.
I don't know nearly as much as you and many others around here on this but couldn't you argue that the lack of term limits keeps some people from even attempting to break in to politics, especially if they are in an area where their party already dominates the area?  I'd rather we start pushing for better qualified politicians that don't need hand holding from lobbyists.  Maybe that's a pipe dream.

 
I don't know nearly as much as you and many others around here on this but couldn't you argue that the lack of term limits keeps some people from even attempting to break in to politics, especially if they are in an area where their party already dominates the area?  I'd rather we start pushing for better qualified politicians that don't need hand holding from lobbyists.  Maybe that's a pipe dream.
No it's money mainly. If you have a better idea you can win an election. But when going against an incumbent you face an uphill battle because he has ready money as long as he keeps toeing the party line. Get the money out of politics and you'll see more people run. This is how you loosen the parties hold. If I don't have to worry about access to their donor list i have a lot more freedom to actually represent my voters. Now the party has other carrots but they aren't quite as effective as money.

I also think it would foster more independent runs.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
It's important for two reasons: first because it weakens the idea of Trump winning a "mandate", and thus weakens his first 100 days, specifically. However, this is made up for by keeping the Senate and the House in Republican hands.

Secondly, and more importantly, this means Democrats have won the popular vote 6 out of 7 times. That indicates that the trend line towards Democratic politics is continuing despite this seeming setback. I wrote before this election that the Democratic party would come to dominate national politics, and that the upcoming struggle would be Sanders Democrat vs. Clinton Democrat, rather than Democrat vs. Republican, with Sanders Democrat winning out most of the time. I still think that long term this is the case.

ETA by "Clinton Democrat" I mean centrist Democrat, not her specifically. She's done.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Change the rules, you change the game, and change the incentive.

Entirely possible that hundreds of thousands of people in upstate NY or Northern California would have found the time to vote.

Looking at Popular Vote totals is meaningless.

Everyone who wants to criticize the Electoral College first needs to read and understand the short article Math Against Tyranny before they can begin to discuss it.
I think there is a flaw in the logic in the article. The 538 electorates are not distributed proportionally among the states. If it were 438 electorates based on the House apportionment, it would be proportional distribution. But electorates for the 2 Senators per state are also added. So, voters in small states start out with about 3 times as much voting power as voters in large states such as California. This came into play in the 2000 election, as Bush won more states - 30 to 21, which gave him an unfair, proportionally speaking, 18 vote electoral advantage over Gore: (31-21)*2 = 18. Gore lost by only 5 electoral votes. 

The current electoral voting system leaves the democrats with a disadvantage as their voting power is concentrated in large urban areas in a few big states.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think there is a flaw in the logic in the article. The 538 electorates are not distributed proportionally among the states. If it were 438 electorates based on the House apportionment, it would be proportional distribution. But electorates for the 2 Senators per state are also added. So, voters in small states start out with about 3 times as much voting power as voters in large states such as California. This came into play in the 2000 election, as Bush won more states - 30 to 21, which gave him an unfair, proportionally speaking, 18 vote electoral advantage over Gore: (31-21)*2 = 18. Gore lost by only 5 electoral votes. 

The current electoral voting system leaves the democrats with a disadvantage as their voting power is concentrated in large urban areas in a few big states.
That's interesting that the democrats have a disadvantage. I recall hearing many times how difficult Trump would have winning because of the electoral college and that Hillary had all the important states in her favor.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but if it's made to just be the popular vote that will cause some problems with a state like California or New York. Didn't she get 4 million votes out of those 2 states alone? That can disrupt the whole country, one or two states could dictate policy for an entire country.

 
Secondly, and more importantly, this means Democrats have won the popular vote 6 out of 7 times. That indicates that the trend line towards Democratic politics is continuing despite this seeming setback.
I disagree with this.  Like someone said earlier, if there was no electoral college the campaigning would be entirely different and we just have no idea how it would have ended up.  Sure the Dems have won 6 of 7 times, but they now own neither the executive branch or either body of Congress.  If the Dems had true staying power or any kind or momentum, they'd have at least taken the Senate back.  The GOP has 31 of the 50 governors, to me that tells me that conservatism not liberalism controls the politics of this country. 

Hillary should have never lost that election, but she did because she and her dumb staff didn't recognize the writing on the wall.  Why was Trump going to Michigan and Wisconsin so much?  Why did she concentrate most of her efforts on the Philadelphia suburbs when she could have picked up key votes in Western PA by simply going there? 

She ignored the constituency, and for that she deserved to lose.  It's like your favorite football team committing three red zone turnovers and 12 penalties and you get all butthurt and tell everyone they should have won because they were the better team.  They really weren't, and Trump ran the better campaign.  If he was a true GOp candidate maybe we'd be in trouble, but he isn't and will probably be fighting with Paul Ryan and Turtle Boy McConnell more than he does with the Dems. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
She lost because she focused no Trump's un-PC behavior in a climate when white voters are tired of it.  White voters are tired of the outrage caused when a cop shoots a black guy with a gun.  Sure, many instances when the cops are in the wrong.  But the outrage had gone too far.  People just fed up with it.

Right or wrong.  Most people do not want to take in refugees from Middle-Eastern populations who hate us.  What was their to gain campaigning on that?

Hillary said in a debate Obamacare needs adjustments.  She could have done more with that to appease white women who pay the household bills.

They should have given Trump the Romney treatment.  He's a New York con-man who doesn't pay taxes.  Instead they ran clips of him calling Rosie O'Donnell a pig and no one cared.

 
That's interesting that the democrats have a disadvantage. I recall hearing many times how difficult Trump would have winning because of the electoral college and that Hillary had all the important states in her favor.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but if it's made to just be the popular vote that will cause some problems with a state like California or New York. Didn't she get 4 million votes out of those 2 states alone? That can disrupt the whole country, one or two states could dictate policy for an entire country.
This is the reason why we have the electoral college system.

 
She lost because she focused no Trump's un-PC behavior in a climate when white voters are tired of it.  White voters are tired of the outrage caused when a cop shoots a black guy with a gun.  Sure, many instances when the cops are in the wrong.  But the outrage had gone too far.  People just fed up with it.

Right or wrong.  Most people do not want to take in refugees from Middle-Eastern populations who hate us.  What was their to gain campaigning on that?

Hillary said in a debate Obamacare needs adjustments.  She could have done more with that to appease white women who pay the household bills.

They should have given Trump the Romney treatment.  He's a New York con-man who doesn't pay taxes.  Instead they ran clips of him calling Rosie O'Donnell a pig and no one cared.
Hillary's Pied Piper strategy backfired on her.  https://mobile.twitter.com/wikileaks/status/796222841612042240

 
:goodposting:

I mentioned this in another thread. Pointing out Trumps bad temperament tested well. But, it became her whole campaign message: "Don't vote for Trump." And, it worked, lots of people didn't vote for Trump. Problem is she never came up with a message that said "Vote for me". So people just stayed home and voted for neither. 
It was her strategy to scare people about Trump.  Hillary decided very early on to not focus on policy.  She wanted to shift attention from her weak points: her character problem and lack of new ideas.

 
I disagree with this.  Like someone said earlier, if there was no electoral college the campaigning would be entirely different and we just have no idea how it would have ended up.  Sure the Dems have won 6 of 7 times, but they now own neither the executive branch or either body of Congress.  If the Dems had true staying power or any kind or momentum, they'd have at least taken the Senate back.  The GOP has 31 of the 50 governors, to me that tells me that conservatism not liberalism controls the politics of this country. 

Hillary should have never lost that election, but she did because she and her dumb staff didn't recognize the writing on the wall.  Why was Trump going to Michigan and Wisconsin so much?  Why did she concentrate most of her efforts on the Philadelphia suburbs when she could have picked up key votes in Western PA by simply going there? 

She ignored the constituency, and for that she deserved to lose.  It's like your favorite football team committing three red zone turnovers and 12 penalties and you get all butthurt and tell everyone they should have won because they were the better team.  They really weren't, and Trump ran the better campaign.  If he was a true GOp candidate maybe we'd be in trouble, but he isn't and will probably be fighting with Paul Ryan and Turtle Boy McConnell more than he does with the Dems. 
And ironically a month or two ago the Trump campaign was criticized and called unsophisticated when they kept going to solid red states to shore up his support.  And all the rallies he held over the last month really must have made a difference.  He totally outworked Hillary. 

 
This is the reason why we have the electoral college system.
There are several advantages to the EC. But is it fair that a vote in Wyoming counts 3 times more than my vote in Florida? The EC is not proportional to state population because it's house plus 2 for the Senate. It  made a difference in the 2000 outcome. Wouldn't have made a difference in 2016. 

 
Seems like the Electoral College discourages millions of Americans from voting for a president. 
If it is by popular votes then Trump and Hillary would have run their campaigns differently.  There is still no guarantee of a different outcome.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top