tombonneau
Footballguy
ESPN reporting that he will be holding a presser to declare for the draft. I personally think he will challenge Stafford for the top QB spot.
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Buz from USC, QB Mark Sanchez is... (1 Viewer)
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NoFBinLA
Moderator
With Bradford staying, Sanchez almost has to go. Sure he could wait but let's face it - the rest of the QB field in the draft is thus far uninspiring. He will challenge Stafford for the top spot easily and might not even have to worry about that.
I think that he would benefit from another year in college due to some inconsistencies in his game but in this economy, with so few QBs ahead of him the moment he declares, with so much money on the table - I think he'll have to go,
If Bradford had declared I might still argue he should stay, but without him the field is wide open and favorable to Sanchez. Why wait a year and battle it out with Bradford and Tebow?
I don't think this bodes well for USC's offense though. Mustain and Corp didn't exactly thrill me this year in spot moments. But who knows?
I think that he would benefit from another year in college due to some inconsistencies in his game but in this economy, with so few QBs ahead of him the moment he declares, with so much money on the table - I think he'll have to go,
If Bradford had declared I might still argue he should stay, but without him the field is wide open and favorable to Sanchez. Why wait a year and battle it out with Bradford and Tebow?
I don't think this bodes well for USC's offense though. Mustain and Corp didn't exactly thrill me this year in spot moments. But who knows?
Buckeyedawgs
Footballguy
NBC Local news just announced it. Though the local news announced once T.O. was being cut by Cowboys that turned out false for now at least.
treat88
Footballguy
Good call Doctor DetrotActually that is just one source since the Tulsa link is just quoting the nationalfootballpost. I'd steer clear of that site when Bradford announces tomorrow he's coming back.
Announcement coming in about 90 minutes.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Sorry if this is already included in a link somewhere in this thread, but here's a list of guys that declared early since 1990. Not exactly a "who's who" among NFL greats...
Jamarcus Russell ~ Oakland Raiders (2007/#1 overall)
Vince Young ~ Tennessee Titans (2006/#3 overall)
Omar Jacobs ~ Pittsburgh Steelers (2006/#164 overall)
Alex Smith ~ San Francisco 49ers (2005/#1 overall)
Aaron Rodgers ~ Green Bay Packers (2005/#24 overall)
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Pittsburgh Steelers (2004/#11 overall)
Rex Grossman ~ Chicago Bears (2003/#22 overall)
Michael Vick ~ Atlanta Falcons, (2001/#1 overall)
Quincy Carter ~ Dallas Cowboys (2001/#53 overall)
Tim Couch ~ Cleveland Browns (1999/#1 overall)
Ryan Leaf ~ San Diego Chargers (1998/#2 overall)
John Walsh ~ Cincinnati Bengals (1995/#213 overall)
Heath Shuler ~ Washington Redskins (1994/#3 overall)
Trent Dilfer ~ Tampa Buccaneers (1994/#6 overall)
Drew Bledsoe ~ New England Patriots (1993/#1 overall)
Dave Brown ~ New York Giants (1992/Supplemental Rd. 1)
Tommy Maddox ~ Denver Broncos (1992/#25 overall)
Todd Marinovich ~ Oakland Raiders (1991/#24 overall)
Jeff George ~ Indianapolis Colts (1990/#1 overall)
Andre Ware ~ Detroit Lions (1990/#7 overall)
Timm Rosenbach ~ Phoenix Cardinals (1989/Supplemental Rd. 1)
Steve Walsh ~ Dallas Cowboys (1989/Supplemental Rd. 1)
Jamarcus Russell ~ Oakland Raiders (2007/#1 overall)
Vince Young ~ Tennessee Titans (2006/#3 overall)
Omar Jacobs ~ Pittsburgh Steelers (2006/#164 overall)
Alex Smith ~ San Francisco 49ers (2005/#1 overall)
Aaron Rodgers ~ Green Bay Packers (2005/#24 overall)
Ben Roethlisberger ~ Pittsburgh Steelers (2004/#11 overall)
Rex Grossman ~ Chicago Bears (2003/#22 overall)
Michael Vick ~ Atlanta Falcons, (2001/#1 overall)
Quincy Carter ~ Dallas Cowboys (2001/#53 overall)
Tim Couch ~ Cleveland Browns (1999/#1 overall)
Ryan Leaf ~ San Diego Chargers (1998/#2 overall)
John Walsh ~ Cincinnati Bengals (1995/#213 overall)
Heath Shuler ~ Washington Redskins (1994/#3 overall)
Trent Dilfer ~ Tampa Buccaneers (1994/#6 overall)
Drew Bledsoe ~ New England Patriots (1993/#1 overall)
Dave Brown ~ New York Giants (1992/Supplemental Rd. 1)
Tommy Maddox ~ Denver Broncos (1992/#25 overall)
Todd Marinovich ~ Oakland Raiders (1991/#24 overall)
Jeff George ~ Indianapolis Colts (1990/#1 overall)
Andre Ware ~ Detroit Lions (1990/#7 overall)
Timm Rosenbach ~ Phoenix Cardinals (1989/Supplemental Rd. 1)
Steve Walsh ~ Dallas Cowboys (1989/Supplemental Rd. 1)
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Some of these guys have done well in the NFL...
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Bledsoe and Roethlisberger are the exceptions to the rule. I like Sanchez, but I don't think he's in the Drew or Ben category.Even though he won a Super Bowl, Dilfer was just average. Rodgers is one of the league's top QB's now, IMO, but he did sit for four years before getting his chance. If Sanchez goes somewhere in the top 15, he'll likely be expected to play sooner than that. If he goes 15+, then he might have a chance to develop like Rodgers did.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Thanks for posting that link, Andy.That said, while some might be hesitant to take a younger QB (although I personally would not), I think these sorts of things go out the window after the QB is drafted. Not many short QBs do very well, but once you saw Drew Brees go at the top of the 2nd round that thinking becomes sort of trivial. The same thing goes for number of college years, IMO. I'd rather have a junior come out who was drafted 10th overall than a senior who was drafted 15th overall. Do you agree with that?Andy Dufresne said:
T Bell
Footballguy
I don't know. I think it depends upon the talent. A lot of guys seem to declare early to "cash in", as if they won early at the craps table and they're not going to press their luck. QB also seems like it's a team "need" that can overwhelm a BPA approach for some teams, as you saw clearly with Alex Smith who was not an elite prospect and yet who was drafted at 1.01 by a team that desperately needed a QB (incidently, to answer your question both Aaron Rodgers and Jason Campbell were picked more than 20 spots later in that same draft, and Campbell was a four year senior). For me you'd better be an elite talent to come out early because those college reps as a starter, making throws and reading defenses, especially if you run a pro offense, are invaluable to your development.
Wilbur Wood
Footballguy
Water seeks its own level.
How much better would Vince Young, Mike Vick, Jamarcus Russell have been to simply go back for another Senior season and basically replicate what they did as juniors?
People act like the senior year will be akin to playing 16 games in NFL Europe.
Young back at Texas would have simply had another ego-inflating season of one look reads out of the shotgun, roll out right and outrun college linebackers. More highlight film material, but that's about it.
Bradford will torch the Big 12's "two-hand touch" defenses for 60 pts each week and perhaps benefit by 1 "real" developmentally positive game like he had vs. Florida whereby he had defenders in his face.
How much better would Vince Young, Mike Vick, Jamarcus Russell have been to simply go back for another Senior season and basically replicate what they did as juniors?
People act like the senior year will be akin to playing 16 games in NFL Europe.
Young back at Texas would have simply had another ego-inflating season of one look reads out of the shotgun, roll out right and outrun college linebackers. More highlight film material, but that's about it.
Bradford will torch the Big 12's "two-hand touch" defenses for 60 pts each week and perhaps benefit by 1 "real" developmentally positive game like he had vs. Florida whereby he had defenders in his face.
T Bell
Footballguy
In that offense, I agree. That's why if you notice in my last post I emphasized reps in a "pro-style offense". Sanchez and Stafford come from pro offenses that run out of standard formations; Tebow and Bradford do not, though Bradford seems to be asked to do more of the things required of a QB in a pro-style offense than does Tebow.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm not sure why you'd say that.I'd say that a QB's success is determined largely by the type of organization that drafts him. I look at the two guys that succeeded highly from that list - Bledsoe and Roethlisberger - and I see two guys that were selected by Bill Parcells and Bill Cowher. Both excellent coaches and organizations (Parcells made the Pats so) that the other guys just didn't seem to have. Most of the others were taken by clubs that are/were highly unstable when they drafted and many are perennial losers in large part due to the fact that they can't develop the QB position.
gianmarco
Footballguy
(Rotoworld) Southern Cal coach Pete Carroll openly criticized Mark Sanchez's decision to leave school early at his Thursday press conference.
Analysis: "Mark is going against the grain...he knows that," said Carroll. "Coming out early is a tremendous challenge for a quarterback and the statistics don't back up that it's easy to be successful." Carroll, a former NFL head coach, has many friends in the pro ranks. We can't imagine this is a good sign.
Analysis: "Mark is going against the grain...he knows that," said Carroll. "Coming out early is a tremendous challenge for a quarterback and the statistics don't back up that it's easy to be successful." Carroll, a former NFL head coach, has many friends in the pro ranks. We can't imagine this is a good sign.
T Bell
Footballguy
I was surprised that he did this. Carroll is not one to bash players, and in fact he wasn't bashing Sanchez. He's known to take an active role as a counselor and adviser to his upperclassmen about whether or not to go pro, and he's encouraged some juniors to leave early when he's thought they should, Reggie Bush being an example. He clearly told Sanchez he should stay. I don't think that dooms Sanchez to failure, but OTOH I think it confirms what a lot of us have been saying about his continued development were he to stay at USC. Carroll was just being more frank about that disagreement than I expected he would be.
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Donnybrook
Footballguy
How does Sanchez compare to John David Booty? (Since Booty was drafted in the 6th round.)
T Bell
Footballguy
Sanchez >>>> Booty.Stronger arm, more mobile, more accurate while on the move, much better leader and "gamer".
T Bell
Footballguy
I generally agree. Leinart was a great pro prospect, but the big letdown for me as a USC fan has been his apparent non-commitment to becoming a great NFL QB. He's a smart player, an accurate thrower with an adequate (though not great) NFL arm - and no, that's not a putdown. But he seems to have been caught too many times partying rather than working, and so I have to question whether his heart's really into being a good pro player. He should have been a good NFL QB in a West Coast Offense system IMHO, but now I don't know what his future is. I don't know where Sanchez's heart is, though the early departure for the NFL could be seen as part of a burning desire to be a good pro player (it could also be seen as a grab for an early pay day too, or acting out of fear that he'd lose that pay day to an injury). I do think that Sanchez has a better arm and better mobility as a QB. Leinart had more chances to show his smarts and leadership as a QB, but Sanchez seems pretty solid there too. I'd probably rate Sanchez as being more talented than Leinart physically, especially for the pro game. The intangibles are where I wonder about him, especially given that I already think he left early and could have used another year as a starting QB at USC.
CalBear
Footballguy
The statistics don't back up that it's easy to be successful by staying in school.
T Bell
Footballguy
Who's saying that it's "easy"? That's not what the debate is about at all. The issue is how much college seasoning, in the right program and offensive system, gives otherwise physically talented college QB's the optimal basis for a successful pro career? All we're talking about are percentages, if you will, and we all know full well that most QB's entering the NFL are going to fail to become impact players, even those drafted high.
So it's not about "easy", it's about better chances.
CalBear
Footballguy
I haven't seen any evidence that QBs who stay for four years are more successful, only one-sided anecdotal "evidence". Mike Pawlawski, Dave Barr, Pat Barnes and Kyle Boller stayed four years; Aaron Rodgers left early.
T Bell
Footballguy
And Rodgers sat for three years before starting . . .You can't look at any one criteria for something like this. It's complex.
But I do think that all other things being equal, QB's who tend to 1) remain in school through their eligibility, 2) with sole possession of the starting role, 3) who run pro-style offenses, and 4) who are talented enough otherwise to play in the NFL have a better chance of succeeding than those who leave early.
CalBear
Footballguy
Sanchez fits points 2-4, so point 1) is the only one that's relevant. And I haven't seen any evidence that QBs with 2-4 are more likely to be successful at the NFL level if they stay four years.
NoFBinLA
Moderator
There was a great interview on AM570 LA on the Petros and Money show (mind you, you need to get past the sound of Petros' voice) and essentially Carroll said that his remarks were more of a message to recruits and other players than Sanchez. He also indicated Sanchez was unhappy with his draft evaluation which indicates that pre-combine and pro day, some NFL scouts are less enthused than some draft analysts about Sanchez.If you go to am570radio.com I think, you should be able to download the interview - it's in the second or third hour of the show. The show itself isn't always great bu the interview was interesting.Also interesting - I happened to be interviewing Brandon Gibson (WR -WSU) and Rudy Carpenter (QB-ASU) when Sanchez announced and while both of them (and several Pac10 defensive players who were there) though Sanchez would have benefited from another year, both also said that given how their seasons went (and you can extrapolate, how bad their teams played around them), they both think they hurt themselves, bot helped, by staying a senior year.Several other players i talked to echoed that - that you can never know what will happen the next year. Injury, money, a collapse by your team - all these things are outside your control and might hurt you more than help you.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Well I meant all other variables being constant.
T Bell
Footballguy
I agree that you can hurt your draft status by staying. I believe strongly that Leinart hurt his by staying, especially given how weak the QB draft class of 2005 was seen as being at the time. (It bears mentioning that Leinart also dropped in part due to an injury his senior year, and he had insurance against such an occurrence so I don't know how much that offset the loss in signing bonus.)But focusing on draft position is short-sighted to me if you're a top pro prospect, even allowing for how ridiculously overpriced rookie first round contracts are. To me you're investing in your overall career by staying in school. You're trying to help earn your second, third, fourth, etc. contracts by laying a good groundwork with all of those additional college reps. I don't know how much Leinart lost by (presumably) falling 9 draft picks from 1.1 in 2005 to 1.10 in 2006, but if he increased his chances to succeed as a starter and stick in the league beyond his first contract by staying in school, that needs to be part of the evaluation as well.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
I personally think Leinart is a much better passer and has more aptitude in terms of the mental aspect of the game, but Sanchez is relatively green so he can definitely grow that part of his game.I like Leinart more than pretty much everybody in this forum...I still think he's going to see a Pro Bowl or two.
CalBear
Footballguy
Did he? It sure doesn't look like it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I have to agree. I don't see what one more year of college ball does for a QB that an NFL training camp, preseason and practices with a QB coach (even if no real game action is achieved) doesn't do.I think these players all would have been the same either way.Also I think Jamarcus Russell deserves a little more time to judge him. He did play well down the stretch in what was his first full season as a starter.
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tombonneau
Footballguy
Interesting list. This has been talked about a lot recently, the success of QBs who come out early vs. completing their senior year and how those who go back to school seem to end up much better pros.I can't help to be reminded about a classic Nature vs. Nurture debate back in college. There was a study that showed that criminals in prison had much lower IQs than non-criminals. Nature supporters said "See, people aren't criminal because of their environment (Nurture), they are criminals because they were born dumb (Nature)." The clever rebuttal to this by the Nurture camp was, "Well, your sample is skewwed because you are only catching the dumb criminals; you can't test the smart ones because they get away." I always thought this was a brilliant response.And I can't help but think that maybe we are seeing some of that here in the results of Early QBs vs. Senior QBs. Perhaps the Early QBs are already displaying a poor lack of judgment by not returning to school, and this lack of judgment would rear its head on the football field whether they came out early or stayed in school for five years. Meanwhile, the Senior QBs are inherently smart and know that staying in school will help them (or so they think). So it could just be that since the Senior QBs are "smart enough to stay in school" that they would have been smart enough even had they come out early, and in fact it's only our perception that that senior year actually helped them.Andy Dufresne said:
CalBear
Footballguy
You're begging the question--you first have to show evidence that staying in school actually helps. The vast majority of QBs who stay in school 4 years do not become successful in the NFL.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Not going to fall for this.
T Bell
Footballguy
Good to see our resident strawman specialist at work again.Benefits he got to his game from staying in school aren't the same thing as the reason why he's failing in the pros. As it turns out, he doesn't seem to have the focus or desire to succeed in the NFL, but we didn't know that at the time, and regardless he still polished his game and got more experience from that senior season.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Exactly. The "fourth year helps them" could very well be a self-fulfilling illusion. Even if it doesn't help them significantly, it's the fact that these QBs are demonstrating patience and a desire to "learn more" and hone their craft instead of chasing money early that actually sets them apart from the less dedicated QBs who would rather cash a paycheck than return to school.
CalBear
Footballguy
He got more experience, but did he really polish his game? And did he really get more experience, and polish his game more than he would have by being in the NFL for the same season?If Leinart came out after his junior year, he would have been the 1.01 pick; instead he was the second QB off the board at 1.10; that suggests that he actually hurt his game, or at least the perception of his game, by staying in school. In fact Leinart is a great counter-example to the argument that staying in school makes one more likely to be successful in the NFL.
T Bell
Footballguy
All you've demonstrated is that you think the 2005 and 2006 QB draft classes were otherwise identical. I beg to differ. You've also not accounted for the injury to Leinart his senior season that also affected his draft selection.
CalBear
Footballguy
The potential for injury is a great reason to go pro when you can, don't you think?It's ridiculous to claim that Leinart didn't hurt his draft status by staying. In 2005 he was being talked about as an obvious franchise QB with all the tools; in 2006 there were questions about his arm strength and mobility that clearly knocked his stock down.
Anyone else think Carroll came off as a ##### as the presser? Granted I only caught the highlights.
Sanchez made his decision. Wish him luck. Say that you wish he could have stayed another year. Instead Carroll made it seem like Sanchez was taking a huge risk. Give me a break. Sanchez can basically retire after the draft. His knee popped out before the start of the season. Is Carroll going to bankroll him if he gets hurt next season playing for him? It's hard to make it as a NFL QB. If you can get that early first round cash you have to take it.
The kid is sitting on millions now, be happy for him.
Sanchez made his decision. Wish him luck. Say that you wish he could have stayed another year. Instead Carroll made it seem like Sanchez was taking a huge risk. Give me a break. Sanchez can basically retire after the draft. His knee popped out before the start of the season. Is Carroll going to bankroll him if he gets hurt next season playing for him? It's hard to make it as a NFL QB. If you can get that early first round cash you have to take it.
The kid is sitting on millions now, be happy for him.
Wilbur Wood
Footballguy
Again I think that it is hard to criticize Sanchez.
He has been in college for 4 years. Football players have short careers. Why spend your Age 23 season in college if you have already attained solid "1st round" draft status by Age 22? Likely carry a clipboard for a minimum of 1 year either way. Thus not see the NFL field to really start your pro career until Age 25? The goal is to be a pro. USC has a tremendous talent advantage over most teams that they will play. Even if it is more of a pro-style offense, I think that the benefit that would derive is overstated as he'll have such an advantage with respect to playmakers on his side compared with the defenses
He has been in college for 4 years. Football players have short careers. Why spend your Age 23 season in college if you have already attained solid "1st round" draft status by Age 22? Likely carry a clipboard for a minimum of 1 year either way. Thus not see the NFL field to really start your pro career until Age 25? The goal is to be a pro. USC has a tremendous talent advantage over most teams that they will play. Even if it is more of a pro-style offense, I think that the benefit that would derive is overstated as he'll have such an advantage with respect to playmakers on his side compared with the defenses
Getting his degree, too.
